state of the power system - eskom home€¦ · 2 disclaimer this presentation does not constitute...
TRANSCRIPT
In support of
2
Disclaimer
This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or the solicitation or
invitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for or underwrite or otherwise acquire, securities of Eskom Holdings Limited
(“Eskom”), any holding company or any of its subsidiaries in any jurisdiction or any other person, nor an inducement to enter
into any investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied
on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. This presentation does not constitute
a recommendation regarding any securities of Eskom or any other person.
Certain statements in this presentation regarding Eskom’s business operations may constitute “forward looking statements.”
All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this presentation, including, without limitation, those
regarding the financial position, business strategy, management plans and objectives for future operations of Eskom are
forward looking statements.
Forward-looking statements are not intended to be a guarantee of future results, but instead constitute Eskom’s current
expectations based on reasonable assumptions. Forecasted financial information is based on certain material assumptions.
These assumptions include, but are not limited to continued normal levels of operating performance and electricity demand
in the Distribution and Transmission divisions and operational performance in the Generation and Primary Energy divisions
consistent with historical levels, and incremental capacity additions through our Enterprises division at investment levels and
rates of return consistent with prior experience, as well as achievements of planned productivity improvements throughout
our business activities.
Actual results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements due to risks, uncertainties and
other factors. Eskom neither intends to nor assumes any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements,
whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
In preparation of this document we used certain publicly available data. While the sources we used are generally regarded
as reliable we did not verify their content. Eskom does not accept any responsibility for using any such information.
In support of
3
7. Integrated resource plan (IRP)
2. Summary of the system
8. Funding plan
1. Background
4. State of the system
6. Capacity expansion programme
5. Partnership approach
Contents
3. The maintenance challenge
9. Conclusions and highlights of the state of the nation address
In support of
44
Background
The objectives of today’s engagement session is to
address the following areas of business on a Q&A basis:
• Security of the supply system;
• Capital expenditure; and
• Funding
In support of
55
Summary of the state of the system
South Africa’s power system will be tight for the next few years: the next two years are critical
We have kept the lights on since 2008 but balancing supply and demand has been a challenge
Most power stations are in their mid-life and require increased maintenance; however, maintenance has constantly been shifted in order to ensure we can meet demand
Strategy of shifting maintenance outages can no longer be sustained.
Summer is maintenance season in Eskom. System is being run at higher levels of risk to tackle backlog and keep up with maintenance while at the same time meeting demand
Energy demand year to date has been lower than originally forecast, but summer peaks are higher than expected
Supply also constrained by unreliability of some stations and power imports
This summer has seen significantly increased use of open cycle gas turbines and other reserves to balance supply and demand
In support of
Forecast of annual electricity gap
6
00
1
2
3
9
6
1 51 4 1 6 2 0 1 71 31 1 1 2
9 T W h is e q u iv a le n t
to ~ 1 0 0 0 M W
b a s e lo a d c a p a c ity
00
1
2
3
9
6
1 51 4 1 6 2 0 1 71 31 1 1 2
9 T W h is e q u iv a le n t
to ~ 1 0 0 0 M W
b a s e lo a d c a p a c ity
00
1
2
3
9
6
1 51 4 1 6 2 0 1 71 31 1 1 2
9 T W h is e q u iv a le n t
to ~ 1 0 0 0 M W
b a s e lo a d c a p a c ity
00
1
2
3
9
6
1 51 4 1 6 2 0 1 71 31 1 1 2
9 T W h is e q u iv a le n t
to ~ 1 0 0 0 M W
b a s e lo a d c a p a c ity
Source: Medium Term Risk Mitigation Plan (2009)
This forecast assumed that all planned supply and demand levers were put in
place
In support of
We took action to address the challenges we identified at the beginning of 2011
7
What we said What we did
We would improve coal handling and coal
quality to reduce load losses
Coal-related load losses have shown an improving trend over the past
few months but still a concern at three stations
We targeted to improve generation output
by 1%-2% over three years
Comparing December 2011 YTD with the same period in 2010, the EAF
performance deteriorated slightly by 0.9%. The Duvha unit 4 incident
was a major setback in improving performance. The Generation division
also undertook a lot more planned maintenance during the December
period as compared to previous years.
We would sign up about 400MW of co-
generation and own generation by April
2011
• 373MW MTPPP signed up (320MW operational)
• 515MW of municipal generation contracted (270MW operational).
• Additional 100MW signed up on short term contracts of which
90MW is available
• 20MW additional MTPPP which is operational.
We needed to undertake significant
maintenance during summer
Critical maintenance has been prioritised. PCLF of 15.5% achieved
during the lowest demand period in December.
Demand-side management programme
in place to reduce demand and energy
savings
Realised energy savings of 198.6GWh during the third quarter. Also
signed up pilot demand response aggregator to achieve 500MW by mid
2012.
We would communicate with our
stakeholders on the state of the systemExtensive programme of engagement with stakeholders
In support of
Review of system status in the last quarter
8
Week Start
MW MW
Week Forecast Operational Surplus/ Deficit
Planned Status
Actual Status
21-Nov-11 47 32526 30
28-Nov-11 48 32513 -972
05-Dec-11 49 32252 -908
12-Dec-11 50 31768 -1427
19-Dec-11 51 30296 -1114
26-Dec-11 52 28434 -510
02-Jan-12 1 30055 -506
09-Jan-12 2 31003 111
16-Jan-12 3 31958 -730
A green week indicates that demand and all
reserve requirements can be met with all
installed capacity (including the Open Cycle
Gas Turbines).
A yellow week indicates that there is up to
1,000 MW shortage of meeting the demand
and reserves. There is an increased
probability of requiring some emergency
reserves to meet the peak demand
A orange week indicates that there is
between 1000 and 2000 MW shortage of
meeting the demand and reserves. There is a
high probability of requiring substantial
emergency reserves to meet the peak
demand
• We have been making increased use of open cycle gas turbines• There is still a significant maintenance backlog• The actual system status has been worse than planned due to worse than expected
performance from the generation fleet and from Cahora Bassa.• A significant amount of maintenance has also been done
In support of
• Eskom provides a 3 600MW allowance for unplanned outages and production losses in its generation fleet, to cushion the system
• Unplanned outages have been running at higher levels this month: main factors are boiler tube leaks, poor coal quality at some stations; excessive heat impairing performance at dry cooled stations
• Outage delays after long duration outages also contribute to increased unavailability
Full and Partial Load Losses: May 2011 – 15 January 2012
Generation performance needs to improve
In support of
What is different from 2008?
• There are better emergency preparedness and communication processes and structures in place.
• The system status is shared regularly with customers through various platforms. Large customers get twice daily updates.
• Coal stockpiles have been replenished and are at healthy levels.
• There is much tighter co-ordination between the System Operator and Generation to ensure trade-offs between system stability and maintenance requirements. However this is not sustainable.
• There is better visibility of the power system status by Eskom management and Government to ensure better situational awareness and quicker response.
• The system is at risk but if the incidents materialise the aim is to contain the impact to short periods of time.
10
In support of
What has happened since 2008?
Supply side• 2 537MW of new capacity has been added.
• 1 025MW of capacity signed up from IPPs and municipal generators
Primary Energy• Coal stockpiles moved from 12 days to just over 40 days
• 15 million litre diesel storage facility hired in Cape Town
Demand side• 1 634MW of verified savings since 2008
• 177 projects to upgrade pumps, motors, fans and lighting at industrial installations,
mines and commercial buildings
Emergency preparedness• Approval of load shedding and critical load management protocol (NRSO48)
• Deployment of structures and protocols during the 2010 FIFA World Cup and COP 17
Communication• Power Alert campaign on SABC and e-TV.
• 49Million campaign
11
In support of
Summer is maintenance season
• We do planned maintenance in summer, when demand is lower, so that maximum capacity available in winter. Maintenance season is usually from September to around mid-May, but this year some maintenance was done during winter
• A colder-than-expected winter puts added pressure on the system: for every 1 degree Centigrade decrease in winter temperature, electricity demand increases by 600 - 700 MW during the evening peak; a warmer than expected summer increases air-conditioning load and demand can increase by up to 400 MW
13
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
23:0
0
02:0
0
05:0
0
08:0
0
11:0
0
14:0
0
17:0
0
20:0
0
23:0
0
02:0
0
Typical Winter Day Typical Summer Day
Typical winter and summer load profiles
Peak demand at
37 000MW, compared
to last year’s summer
peak of 33 064MW
(and last year’s winter
peak of 37 064MW)
Summer load profile is much flatter,
peak of 32 000 – 33 000 MW, so if
there is a constraint, system is
constrained for entire day
Pe
ak
de
ma
nd
(M
W)
In support of
The preventative maintenance challenge
14
Activity Cycle time (years) Duration (days)
General overhaul (GO) 6 - 12 40 - 60
Interim repairs (IR) 2 - 3 14 - 35
Mini – general overhaul (MGO) 6 28
Boiler inspection (BI) 1 – 1.5 7 - 14
Statutory inspection and test (ST) 6 35
Main steam pipe work 120
GO
BI
IR
MGO
BI + ST
IR
MGO
A typical coal-fired generating unit requires certain necessary routine maintenance to ensure that it meets its technical performance requirements, is safe to operate and does not violate any environmental laws
18 months
18 months
18 months
18 months
18 months
6 months
In support of 0 10 20 30 40 50
Kendal
Matimba
Lethabo
Tutuka
Duvha
Matla
Kriel
Hendrina
Arnot
Age
History of system status in order to accommodate planned maintenance
In 2010 and 2011 the system was run much
closer to the “red line” compared to 2009 in
order to address the plant maintenance
requirements. However, the total amount of
maintenance work done was insufficient and
hence a maintenance backlog has developed
15
Mid - Life
YearMaintenance
% MW
2008 8.8 3370
2009 9.5 3733
2010 8.6 3458
2011 8.14 3315
Backlog
2011 36 units
* The surplus categorisation is revised in accordance with system changes
In support of
2012 maintenance challenge
• Planned outage requirements exceed the capacity available for maintenance
• So liquid-fuel open cycle gas turbine usage and demand-side management become critical
• The goal is a maintenance ratio of 10% of capacity, including 3% to address the backlog: Actual
achieved at the end of December 2011 is 15.62% and 8.14% for the financial YTD at 16/01/12.
• Planned outages are ranked on scope and risk, to enable prioritisation of outages within the
available capacity
• Lower risk outages (inspections and interim repairs) have had to make way for high-risk, high-
pressure pipe-work replacements, low-pressure turbine blade inspections and major
refurbishment outages
• All “deferred” outages are monitored for risk until they can be accommodated
MW0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1200013-J
an
13-F
eb
13-M
ar
13-A
pr
13-M
ay
13-J
un
13-J
ul
13-A
ug
13-S
ep
13-O
ct
13-N
ov
13-D
ec
Maintenance Cap available for maint Excl Gas Cap available for maint Incl GasRequired
Capacity available
for maintenance
including Liquid-fuel
Open Cycle Gas
Turbines (OCGTs)
Capacity available for
maintenance
excluding Liquid-fuel
Open Cycle Gas
Turbines (OCGTs)
17
In support of
Demand has been below expectations
19
• The peak demand and total energy sent out for 2010 was almost back to levels seen in 2007, before the recession
• The summer demand in 2011 was generally higher than that previously experienced. However there was a drop in the winter load compared to that expected.
• The peak demand for 2011 was 37 064MW at the end of May, including non-Eskom generation. This is marginally higher than the 36 970MW peak in 2010 but lower than our forecast of 37 500MW for last winter. The forecast 2012 winter peak is also about 37 500MW
Weekly peak demand
26000
28000
30000
32000
34000
36000
38000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152
Pe
ak
De
ma
nd
(M
W)
Week number
2011 (Incl non-Eskom sales to Eskom) 2011 (Eskom Sent Out) 2010 2007
In support of
Constrained generation trends – OCGT usage
• In 2011 we used our OCGTs more to ensure that as much as possible maintenance is
done while keeping the lights on.
• However there is still a maintenance backlog.
20
In support of
Expected system status
21
• With all gas we
should be operating
in the green.
• Our normal planning
assumption is
3 600MW unplanned
with 4 500MW being
a risk assessment.
• It is clear that without
deferring
maintenance, the
system status is
more risky.
Date Maintenance
Excess Capacity available assuming use of
2238MW of OCGT capacity, required
3600MW unplanned allowance, required
Operating Reserves and Forecast
Excess Capacity available
assuming use of 2238MW of OCGT
capacity, required 4500MW
unplanned allowance, required
Operating Reserves and Forecast
13-Jan-12. Fri 6783 51 -849
20-Jan-12. Fri 6286 -222 -1122
26-Jan-12. Thu 5445 -7 -907
31-Jan-12. Tue 5357 169 -731
07-Feb-12. Tue 5480 -144 -1044
13-Feb-12. Mon 5628 -394 -1294
20-Feb-12. Mon 5189 -133 -1033
01-Mar-12. Thu 6047 -1241 -2141
05-Mar-12. Mon 5847 -1506 -2406
14-Mar-12. Wed 5962 -1724 -2624
22-Mar-12. Thu 5367 -1256 -2156
26-Mar-12. Mon 5737 -1409 -2309
03-Apr-12. Tue 7845 -3292 -4192
10-Apr-12. Tue 7834 -3480 -4380
17-Apr-12. Tue 6671 -3187 -4087
25-Apr-12. Wed 6481 -3088 -3988
02-May-12. Wed 6509 -3425 -4325
07-May-12. Mon 6726 -3942 -4842
14-May-12. Mon 6446 -4048 -4948
24-May-12. Thu 5619 -4878 -5778
28-May-12. Mon 3716 -2801 -3701
07-Jun-12. Thu 2638 -2307 -3207
14-Jun-12. Thu 2045 -1408 -2308
21-Jun-12. Thu 1603 -1290 -2190
27-Jun-12. Wed 1603 -1520 -2420
02-Jul-12. Mon 1518 -1450 -2350
09-Jul-12. Mon 925 -1713 -2613
18-Jul-12. Wed 765 -1033 -1933
23-Jul-12. Mon 765 -185 -1085
30-Jul-12. Mon 1714 -942 -1842
In support of
Required capacity to ensure stable system operation
22
• Ideally, 3 000MW of committed capacity from supply and demand initiatives is
needed immediately to keep the lights on and enable maintenance to continue.
• Reducing this target will require an adjustment to the maintenance programme.
• Between now and end-December 2013, the minimum targets set out in the
table below need to be achieved to prevent an emergency.
Immediate (within 1
month) (MW)
By July 2012 (MW) and
sustained to end
December 2013
High load factor
initiatives to bring
certainty to
maintenance planning
1000 2000
Pre-Emergency/
Contingency/Peaking
initiatives
2000 1000
In support of
Way forward
Eskom has set up a recovery team to:
• Execute the plan to secure identified and approved demand and supply levers.
• Step up communications to encourage greater energy efficiency.
• Be clear about our maintenance philosophy and the governance processes to manage risk and specify operating envelopes for power generation plants.
• Implement an effective outage strategy, using maintenance windows to reduce the backlog, deal with emerging risks and conduct scheduled, design-based maintenance.
• Implement a more sustainable maintenance philosophy throughout the generation fleet.
The Department of Public Enterprises will establish a task team with Eskom to develop the detailed delivery schedule and review progress, coordinate activities that require Government intervention, prepare updates for Cabinet and align communication and stakeholder plans.
23
In support of
24
What have we done?
• Signed power purchase agreements (PPAs) with the two municipalities to secure baseload generation.
• Secured available non-Eskom generation from customer base on a short-term basis.
• Signed power buyback agreements, where we were able to remove base demand off the system, while some were deferred to the winter period.
• Obtained voluntary co-operation over peak periods from large customers (at least 400MW)
• Identified possible cross-border generation - engagements are currently taking place.
In support of
25
Supply and demand side initiatives
Short Term InitiativesNovember 2011 – 29 February
2012
Target Capacity
(MW)
Secured Capacity
(MW)
ActualAvailable
(MW)Status
Municipal Baseload Power 515 515 270 Contracts ends 29 Feb 2012
MTPPP’s (Additional) 20 20 20 Contracts ends 29 Feb 2012
IPPs and short -term base load (additional)
100 90 90 Contracts ends 29 Feb 2012Additional 17 MW available 01 Feb 2011
Non – Eskom Peaking Generation 160 0 0 Original target 160 MW, some capacity falls outside mandate. 40 MW awaiting finalization. Expected 01 February 2011.
Cross Border 100 0 0 100 MW on track for target date 01 July 2012
Power Buy Back 1000(accumulative)
220(accumulative
)
220 120 MW available till 28 February 2012100 MW available until 12 February
Additional DMP 200 60 30 A further 127 MW Supplemental and 42 MW Instantaneous awaiting finalization
EDMP 200 0 0 Nothing secured to-date
DRAPP 500 0 0 On track to secure 500 MW by 31 July 2012
Mandatory ECS - - - DoE pronouncement on implementation of ECS
Alternative initiatives:
Stand-by customer generation, Mandatory DMP, Mandatory ECS, Mobile diesel generation, Coal quality improvement, State agencies building efficiency, Regional gas options.
In support of
Energy Conservation Scheme (ECS) Performance as at 31 October 2011
• Since July 2008, Eskom introduced the voluntary Energy Conservation Scheme to its top 250 customers
• 133 of the customers signed off their baselines (reference consumption)
• 95 of the customers with signed-off baselines are key industrial customers
26
ECS performance for rolling 12-month period (Nov ’10 to Oct ‘11) Eskom total Key industrial customers
Historical Consumption of Top 250 Eskom Customers (GWh) 126 383 90 012
Adjusted Historical Consumption of Top 250 Eskom Customers (GWh) 138 008 101 431
10% Savings Requirement based on Adjusted Historical Consumption 13 801 101 431
Allocation of all targeted customers (GWh) 124 208 91 288
Actual consumption of all targeted customers (GWh) 123 000 87 417
Savings from allocation - all targeted customers (GWh) 1.208 3.872
Savings from allocation - all targeted customers (%) 1.0% 4.2%
Savings from Allocation- customers with signed off baselines (%) 6.4% 6.9%
Munic Annual Consumption (GWh) 92 400
In support of
Partner with us
• 49M is an Eskom initiative, supported by government, spurring an urgent need for all 49 million South Africans to embrace energy saving as a national culture, joining the global journey towards a sustainable future
• 49M campaign launched by Eskom and Government to create energy efficiency culture and calls for a 10% reduction in electricity usage
• Energy efficiency is not only a national concern, it is a global concern.
28
In support of
Mpumalanga
refurbishment
Mpumalanga
refurbishment
Capacity expansion programme
30
Distribution &
customer serviceTransmission ConstructionGenerationPrimary Energy
Medupi is the first coal-generating plant in Africa to use supercritical power generation technology
Return-to-service (RTS)Return-to-service (RTS)
� Komati (1 000 MW)
� Camden (1 520 MW)
� Grootvlei (1 180 MW)
New coalNew coal
� Medupi (4 764 MW)
� Kusile (4 800 MW)
Peaking & renewablesPeaking & renewables
� Ankerlig (1 338.3MW)
� Gourikwa (746 MW)
� Ingula (1 332 MW)
� Sere (100 MW)
� Arnot capacity increase
(300 MW)
� Matla refurbishment
� Kriel refurbishment
� Duvha refurbishment
TransmissionTransmission
� 765kV projects
� Central projects
� Northern projects
� Cape projects
3 700 MW 9 564 MW 3 516.3 MW 300 MW ~ 4 700 km
Commissions of new stationsCommissions of new stations
First UnitFirst Unit Last UnitLast Unit
Medupi
Kusile
Ingula
2013
2014
2014
2018
2018
2014
• ~ 17 080 MW of new capacity (5 501 MW installed and commissioned)
• ~ 4 700 km of required transmission network (3 747.6 km installed)
• 20 600 MVA planned (17 945 MVA installed)
In support of
Build progress to date (as at 31.12.2011)
To date, a large amount of construction work has been completed, adding ~5,501MW, 3,747.6 km of
transmission network, and ~17,945 sub-stations . . .
Km line
MVAs
Megawatts
Substations
Transmission
1,630
1,000
FY2004/5
FY2005/6
1,090
TotalFY2009/10
FY2008/9
1,375
FY2007/8
1,355
FY2006/7
MW of capacity
FY2010/11
1,351
1,043
1,770
5,501
315
2900
237430
480418.30
600.30
3,747.6
443.40
659
5,940
5,280 17,945
452
FY2011/12
275
479.6
280
Note: 280MWs reported include Gvl U6 (160MW – SHC) , Komati U4 (100MW) & Camden U6 (20MW) which are included in the GC Incentive SchemeSource: Eskom Group Capital Division (Construction Management)
In support of
Current planned capacity expansion plan
32
In addition, Eskom has commenced the development of a 100MW CSP plant
ProjectProjections
11/12 FY 12/13 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY Total
Grootvlei (return to service) 160 30 190
Komati (return to service) 225 200 425
Arnot capacity upgrade (coal fired) 30 30
Medupi (coal fired) 794 794 1588 794 794 4 764
Kusile (coal fired) 800 800 800 800 1600 4 800
Ingula (pumped storage) 1 332 1 332
Sere wind farm (renewable) 100 100
TOTAL (MWs) 385 260 894 3 387 2 388 1 594 1 594 1 600 11 641
In support of
Medupi update
• As announced on 11 October 2011, Eskom initiated a detailed assessment of
the timelines for the first unit of Medupi (Unit 6), which was due to deliver first
power to the national grid in late 2012; We said the schedule was at risk
• Main concern is the unit’s boiler, which is being built by a consortium comprising
Hitachi Power Africa and Hitachi Power Europe. We are working closely with the
parent company in Japan and Hitachi has put remedial measures in place to
mitigate the risks
• Hitachi has made commitments to enable Unit 6 to deliver first power to the grid
by May 2013 – in line with the Integrated Resource Plan
• Other contractual arrangements arising out of the delay are being addressed
33
In support of
SA national planning process- driven by Regulations on New Generation
35
IPP Procurement PPA
Fund BuildIRP Feasi-bility
The IRP determines which technologies will be built
DoE
Regulations state new generation capacity must be represented in the IRP to receive generation and distribution licenses or receive a Section 34 exemption from the minister
A feasibility study is conducted and IRP capacity is allocated to the most suitable; IPPs or Eskom
DoE - According to New Generation Regulations
This process has not yet been executed and is required for subsequent planning actions
Suitable IPPs are procured through the IPP procurement process
DoE / Single Buyer Office
The IPP procurement process must be finalised to ensure participation of these producers
Buyer of electricity signs Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with power producer
Minister must assign a buyer of each PPA
Currently, the Single Buyer Office is ring-fenced within Eskom to sign PPAs based upon the DoE procurement decision
IPPs often require PPAs prior to obtaining external funding. Such PPAs will require government backing
Eskom, IPPs
Eskom may receive funding with government backing. Costs are recovered via the MYPD submissions electricity tariff
Building for Eskom or IPPs can only commence once investment decision has been taken
Eskom, IPPs
Construction of IRP projects may be delayed due to required upstream decisions
Ba
ckgro
un
dR
esp
on
sib
le
Sta
tus
In support of
Total additional new capacity
(without committed) until 2030 in GW
5
20
15
10
Wind
CSP
Solar PV
1,0
Peak -
OCGT
Coal
3,9
8,4
9,6
6,3
8,4
17,8
Renew-
ables
Nuclear Gas -
CCGT
2,42,6
Hydro
25
Policy-Adjusted IRP
10,1 0,0 0,05 0,0 1,0 1,0
35,5 1,8 2,1 0,0 2,4 0,0
65% 20% 5% 1% < 0,1% 9%
90% 5% 5% 0% < 0,1% 0%Energy
share
in 2010
in 2030
15% 23% 6% 6% 9% 42%
Share
of total
new GW
ΣΣΣΣ = 260TWh
ΣΣΣΣ = 454TWh
IRP outcomes
36
In support of
Capacity in 2030
37
Existing
35515
Committed
10133
Decomm.
(10902)
New
6250
Existing
1800
New
Committed
1125
New
17800
In support of
Funding plan – R300 billion to 2017 as at 31 December 2011
39
Source of fundsFunding sourced
RbnCurrently secured
Rbn
Draw-downs to date
Rbn
Amount supported by Government
Rbn
Bonds 90.0 31.8 31.8 19.3
Commercial paper 70.0 70.0 17.5 0.0
Export Credit Agency backed
32.9 32.9 13.9 0.0
World Bank loan 29.7 27.8 4.1 27.8
AFDB loan 20.9 20.9 5.9 20.9
DBSA loan 15.0 15.0 3.0 0.0
Shareholder loan 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Other sources 23.4 6.8 0.9 4.9
Totals 300.0 223.7 97.1 92.9
Percentages 75.1%(1) 43.1%(2) 41.2%(2)
(1) As a percentage of the R300bn funding sourced(2) As a percentage of the currently secured total
In support of
Conclusions
41
• South Africa’s power system will be tight for the next few years: the next two
years are critical.
• Summer is maintenance season in Eskom. System is being run at higher
levels of risk to tackle backlog and keep up with maintenance while at the
same time meeting demand.
• Strategy of shifting maintenance outages can no longer be sustained.
• Government, Eskom and business have been working together in the last 2
years to develop solutions. Some have been implemented while others need
to be accelerated.
• We need a partnership approach and need the support of all our citizens and
customers.
• We need all the IPPs to generate either for themselves or through a PPA.
Eskom is supporting and will continue to support this process.
• We need to save 10% of our current energy demand and remove 3000MW
from our demand to ensure that the power system can be operated in a
stable mode and that adequate maintenance is done on the generation fleet
to provide safe and sustainable performance.
In support of
Highlights of State of the nation address by President Zuma
42
• There is an on-going concern from business and communities about high electricity
costs. The President says he has asked Eskom to seek options on how the price
increase requirement may be reduced over the next few years, in support of economic
growth and job creation.
• The President said we need an electricity price path which will ensure that Eskom and
the industry remain financially viable and sustainable, but which remains affordable
especially for the poor.
• However to achieve sustainability, a pact will be required with all South Africans –
including business, labour, municipalities, communities and all customers and suppliers
to save electricity.
• The President added that for the next two years, until the Medupi and Kusile power
stations come into operation, the electricity system would be very tight. All South
Africans should play our part in order to avoid load shedding.
• To increase energy capacity the government would continue to search for renewable
energy sources, especially solar electricity and biofuels.