state of utah long term projections model system t. ross reeve governor’s office of planning and...
Post on 22-Dec-2015
215 views
TRANSCRIPT
State of Utah Long Term Projections Model SystemState of Utah Long Term Projections Model System
T. Ross ReeveGovernor’s Office of Planning and Budget
November 26, 2002
Utah Long Term ProjectionsUtah Long Term Projections Long term demographic & economic projections
program is housed at the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget
Projections Website:http://www.governor.state.ut.us/dea/Projections/projections.html
Documentation: http://www.governor.state.ut.us/dea/publications/MODEL/Model.htm
OverviewOverview
UPED: Utah Process Economic & Demographic model has a 30 year legacy
Continuous Development Consistent Economic & Demographic Projections Employment Method is Both Top Down & Bottom Up:
Relates Utah’s projected inter-industry structure to that of the nation; SR-LR, events, industries
Baseline, Impact, & Scenario Analysis Capabilities
Regional Economic /
Demographic
Projection Model
GOPBGeographic
Information System
AGRC
Water
Supply/Demand
Model
DWR
Transportation
Planning Models
MPOs, UDOT
Air Quality Models
DAQ
Small Area Allocation Models MPOs, AOGs
Planning ModelsPlanning Models
Quality Growth Efficiency ToolsQuality Growth Efficiency Tools
State Agencies
Regional Planning Entities
Local Government
Public Utilities
IntegratesEconomic & Demographic Projections
Fiscal ImpactsGIS/Land Use
Air QualityTransportation Planning
Water Supply/Demand Projections
Coalition for Utah’s
Future
Utah Critical Land Conservation
Committee
Local Government
Plans
Regional Plans State Planning AgenciesFederal Agency Plans
Private Sector Plans
“Process to improve the quality of information available to decision makers to plan for Utah’s future.”
Utah Planning DistrictsUPED Model Regions
Utah Planning DistrictsUPED Model Regions
Southeast
Southwest
Central
Wasatch Front Uintah Basin
Bear River
Mountainland
Utah Planning DistrictsUPED Model RegionsUtah Planning DistrictsUPED Model Regions
Bear River: Box Elder, Cache, Rich Wasatch Front: Davis, Morgan, Salt Lake, Tooele, Weber Mountainland: Summit, Utah, Wasatch Central: Juab, Millard, Piute, Sanpete, Sevier, Wayne Southwest: Beaver, Garfield, Iron, Kane, Washington Uintah Basin: Daggett, Duchesne, Uintah Southeast: Carbon, Emery, Grand, San Juan
Projection ProcessProjection ProcessInternal External
Development
Production
Distribution
Data Series & Sources
Primary Empirical
Information
Professional Literature & Association
Market Research & User (Customer) Feedback
Model Estimation, Calibration & Projection DesignModel Estimation, Calibration & Projection Design
Data Lag
(Variable in Time)
Projection Interval
Estimation Interval
Complete Data Availability
Problem:
Estimate Parameters Using Variables
Partial Data Availability
Problem:
Estimate Some Parameters Using Variables Values; Calculate Some Variable Values Using Parameters
No Data Availability
Problem:
Calculate Variable Values Using Parameters
History 2000 Current Year Future
UPED Model System CapabilitiesUPED Model System Capabilities
Baseline Projection Impact Projection Self Calibration Historical Parameter Estimates Target or Goal Seeking Confidence Intervals
Data Preparation
Models
Database
Evaluation/ Interpretation / Presentation
Data Sources
Data Sets
Model System
Model System
Parameter & Exogenous Variable
Estimation & Projection
Data SourcesData Sources
Utah Population Estimates Committee
Bureau of Vital Records Department of Workforce
Services Board of Higher Education L.D.S. Church
Bureau of the Census Bureau of Economic
Analysis Bureau of Labor
Statistics
State Federal
UPED ModelParameters and VariablesUPED ModelParameters and Variables
Variables Produced Demographic Parameters Exogenous Basic Employment Variables Economic Parameters
Variables ProducedVariables Produced Population Temporarily Present
Non-Residents Temporarily Absent
Residents Births Deaths Natural Increase
Population Employment Related In
and Out Migration
Non-employment Related In-Migration
Non-Employment Related Out-Migration
Households Labor Force Residentiary Employment Total Employment
Note: Most Dimensioned by Age and Sex
UPED Model Major Demographic Parameters
UPED Model Major Demographic Parameters Birth Rates (age of mother) Survival Rates (age, sex) Non-employment Related Out-Migration Rates (age, sex) Non-employment Related In-Migration Growth Rates (age,
sex) Migration Propensities (age, sex) Household Headship Rates (age, sex of householder)
UPED Exogenous VariablesDimensioned by Industry and YearUPED Exogenous VariablesDimensioned by Industry and Year
Temporary Basic Employment Event Basic Employment Other Permanent Basic Employment
UPED ModelMajor Economic Parameters
UPED ModelMajor Economic Parameters
Labor Force Participation Rates (age, sex) Residentiary Demand Relatives (industry) Relative Demand Parameters (age, industry) Multiple Job Holding Rate Net Out-Commutation Rate Equilibrium Unemployment Rate
Model System ModelsModel System Models
Utah Process Economic and Demographic Model (UPED)
Utah County Allocation of Population & Employment Model (UCAPE)
County Age and Sex Allocation Model (CASA)
UPED Model General Flowchart
UPED Model General Flowchart
Population in Year t-1
Age & Survive; Births & Non- Employment Related In-Migration
Adjusted Natural Increase Population
Non-Employment Related Out-Migration & Employment Related Net In-Migration in Year t
Population in Year t
Labor Market
Population Dependent Job Opportunities in
Year t
Labor Force in Year t Total Job Opportunities in
Year t
Basic Job Opportunities in Year t
RecursiveIterativeDirect Model Components
Inputs & Outputs
UPED Labor Market: Supply & Demand for JobsUPED Labor Market: Supply & Demand for Jobs
)(*
)1)(1(
)(
)(
))1)(1*)(1((
LuU
SDXD
LcdD
PlL
PrBS
rlcdu
BP
Where:P is Population (persons)B is Basic Employment (jobs)S is Total Employment (supply of jobs)L is Labor Force (persons)U is Unemployed Labor Force (persons)D is Demand for Jobs (jobs)XD is Excess Demand for Jobs (jobs)u* is Equilibrium Unemployment Rate l is Labor Force Participation Rated is Multiple Job Holding Ratec is Net Out-Commutation Rater is Residentiary demand relative
UPED EmploymentUPED Employment
Production for Regional Consumption
Direct & Indirect
Production for Export
Direct & Indirect
Residentiary Employment (REDi)
Total Employment (TEDi)
Basic Employment (BEDi)
Permanent Basic
Employment (BEDPi)
Temporary Basic
Employment (BEDTi)
Change in Permanent Basic
For Event or Impact (BEDPACi or
BEDCACi)
Growth Rate of Permanent Basic
For Baseline (BEDPGi or BEDPGRi)
= If Baseline
Determinants of the Demand for Residentiary Employment Determinants of the Demand for Residentiary Employment
Permanent Basic Employment in the
Region
Temporary Basic Employment in the
Region
In-Region Consumer Demand
for Goods & Services
Local Market for Consumer Goods &
Services
Consumer Goods & Services Produced Outside the Region
Locally Produced Consumer Goods &
Services
Competition$ $
Residentiary Employment to Produce Locally Demanded Consumer Goods
& ServicesRelates the region’s projected changes in productivity and consumption to that of the nation.Captures unique regional industrial structure, consumption patterns, and age structure.
UCAPE Model General FlowchartUCAPE Model General Flowchart
Historical county population & employment by industry
Allocate industry employment to counties using Bayesian Maximum
Likelihood Procedure
UPED MCD projections of population & employment
Selection of industry employment locational
hypothesis
Allocate industry employment to counties using selected
hypothesis
Allocate population to counties
CASA Model General FlowchartCASA Model General Flowchart
UPED regional variables & parameters
UCAPE total population by
county
Previous year’s county
population by age & sex
Allocation of MCD temporarily absent residents & present
non-residents
Allocation of MCD births &
deaths
Allocation of MCD employment related
net in-migration
Allocation of MCD non-employment related in & out
migration
County population projection by age & sex
Allocation of MCD households to county level
Visualization: Geographic Distribution of Utah’s Population Across TimeVisualization: Geographic Distribution of Utah’s Population Across Time