statewide general benchmark august · statewide general benchmark august topline view •...

Statewide General Benchmark AugustTopline View • 08.13.2018 - 08.15.2018

Performed by Commonwealth Leaders FundThe PA Statewide Benchmark Survey was conducted by IVR Interviews from August 13 - August 15 among a random sample of 2012 likely voters. The poll has a margin error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Results are weighted. Some percentages in crosstab reports for this poll may not add to 100% due to rounding.


Q1. Voter Likelihood:Thinking ahead, what is the likelihood that you will vote in the November 2018 General Election forGovernor, United States Senator, Congress and other state legislative offices in Pennsylvania?

Attribute Overall Count Overall %

Extremely Likely 1,686 83.81%

Very Likely 156 7.76%

Somewhat Likely 169 8.42%

Total 2,012 100%

Extremely Likely Very Likely Somewhat Likely

Statewide General Benchmark August . 08.13.2018 - 08.15.2018 1 of 19


Q2. Age:Which of the following is your age range?


18-34 143 7.09%

35-54 521 25.91%

55-64 523 26%

65+ 825 41%

Total 2,012 100%

18-34 35-54 55-64 65+



Q3. Gender:Are you male or are you female?


Male 868 43.13%

Female 1,144 56.87%

Total 2,012 100%

Male Female



Q4. Party:With which political party are you registered?


Democrat 948 47.11%

Republican 863 42.89%

Independent 161 8%

Other 40 2%

Total 2,012 100%

Democrat Republican Independent Other



Q5. Voter Enthusiasm:Please tell us how enthusiastic you are in voting in the upcoming 2018 General Election for Governor, USSenator and other state legislative offices?


Very Enthusiastic 1,301 64.67%

Somewhat Enthusiastic 412 20.5%

Not Very Enthusiastic 133 6.62%

Unenthusiastic 73 3.63%

Do Not Know 92 4.58%

Total 2,012 100%

Very Enthusiastic Somewhat Enthusiastic Not Very EnthusiasticUnenthusiastic Do Not Know



Q6. PA Direction:Generally speaking, would you say that Pennsylvania is headed in the right direction or off on the wrongtrack?


Right Direction 884 43.91%

Off Track 1,128 56.09%

Total 2,012 100%

Right Direction Off Track



Q7. Trump Approval:Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?


Strongly Approve 843 41.9%

Somewhat Approve 224 11.15%

Somewhat Disapprove 84 4.17%

Strongly Disapprove 822 40.83%

Not Sure 39 1.94%

Total 2,012 100%

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove Not Sure



Q8. Wolf Approval:Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Wolf is handling his job as Governor?


Strongly Approve 526 26.13%

Somewhat Appove 506 25.17%

Somewhat Disapprove 330 16.4%

Strongly Disapprove 540 26.82%

Not Sure 110 5.48%

Total 2,012 100%

Strongly Approve Somewhat Appove Somewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove Not Sure



Q9. Governor Ballot:If the General Election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Democrat Tom Wolf orRepublican Scott Wagner?


Tom Wolf 927 46.08%

Scott Wagner 872 43.34%

Other Candidate 56 2.78%

Undecided 157 7.79%

Total 2,012 100%

Tom Wolf Scott Wagner Other Candidate Undecided



Q10. US Senate Ballot:If the General Election for United State Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Bob Caseyor Republican Lou Barletta?


Bob Casey 947 47.09%

Lou Barletta 910 45.22%

Other Candidate 32 1.59%

Undecided 123 6.1%

Total 2,012 100%

Bob Casey Lou Barletta Other Candidate Undecided



Q11. Wolf Opinion:For Tom Wolf:


Very Favorable 606 30.13%

Somewhat Favorable 449 22.34%

Somewhat Unfavorable 324 16.11%

Very Unfavorable 532 26.42%

Not Formed Opinion 98 4.87%

Never Heard Of 3 0.13%

Total 2,012 100%

Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Somewhat UnfavorableVery Unfavorable Not Formed Opinion Never Heard Of



Q12. Wagner Opinion:For Scott Wagner:


Very Favorable 427 21.23%

Somewhat Favorable 491 24.42%

Somewhat Unfavorable 229 11.39%

Very Unfavorable 422 20.96%

Not Formed Opinion 394 19.59%

Never Heard Of 48 2.41%

Total 2,012 100%

Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Somewhat UnfavorableVery Unfavorable Not Formed Opinion Never Heard Of



Q13. Issue:Which of the following issues is most important to you when deciding on whom to vote for as your nextGovernor in Harrisburg?


Taxes and Govt Spending 620 30.8%

Jobs and the Economy 373 18.53%

Education 249 12.39%

Healthcare 310 15.4%

Infrastructure and Transportation 87 4.34%

Reforming State Govt 115 5.72%

Open Space and Enviornment 42 2.09%

Crime and Safety 28 1.39%

Social Issues 188 9.34%

Total 2,012 100%

Taxes and Govt Spending Jobs and the Economy Education HealthcareInfrastructure and Transportation Reforming State Govt

Open Space and Enviornment Crime and Safety Social Issues



Q14. Race:What is your race?


White Not Hispanic 1,632 81.1%

Black Not Hispanic 196 9.73%

Hispanic 30 1.47%

Asian or Pacific Islander 16 0.8%

Other 139 6.91%

Total 2,012 100%

White Not Hispanic Black Not Hispanic HispanicAsian or Pacific Islander Other



Q15. Political Philosophy:Regarding your political philosophy and positions, do you consider yourself to be Very Conservative,Somewhat Conservative, Moderate, Somewhat Liberal or Very Liberal?


Very Conservative 521 25.9%

Somewhat Conservative 538 26.74%

Moderate 556 27.64%

Somewhat Liberal 260 12.91%

Very Liberal 137 6.81%

Total 2,012 100%

Very Conservative Somewhat Conservative ModerateSomewhat Liberal Very Liberal



Q16. Marital StatusWhich of the following choices describes your current marital status?


Single Never Married 296 14.7%

Married 1,217 60.48%

Separated 34 1.71%

Divorced 166 8.25%

Widowed 299 14.86%

Total 2,012 100%

Single Never Married Married Separated Divorced Widowed



Q17. Education:What is your highest level of education?


Some High School 85 4.25%

High School Graduate 624 31.02%

Technical or Vocational School 273 13.59%

College Graduate 608 30.22%

Post Graduate or Professional 421 20.92%

Total 2,012 100%

Some High School High School Graduate Technical or Vocational SchoolCollege Graduate Post Graduate or Professional



Q18. Geography:From file.


South Central 285 14.14%

SEPA 568 28.24%

Lehigh Valley 161 8.02%

Northeast 263 13.05%

Heartland 207 10.31%

Southwest 423 21.02%

Northwest 105 5.22%

Total 2,012 100%

South Central SEPA Lehigh Valley Northeast HeartlandSouthwest Northwest



Q19. Vote History:From File.


2 of 4 357 17.72%

3 of 4 435 21.63%

4 of 4 1,220 60.65%

Total 2,012 100%

2 of 4 3 of 4 4 of 4


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