STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA 1

How do we see & use statistics?

Government Communicators’ Meeting

Sonia M. JacksonDirector General

Statistical Institute of Jamaica

STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA 2

Structure of Presentation World population trends Findings from Census 2011 Population projections to 2030 Components of the Labour Force Survey

July 2012 The changing structure of the economy Impact of the population change Conclusion

STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA 3

World Population Trends 2012 Fertility rate worldwide 2.4 children per woman Infant mortality rate 41 infant deaths per 1000

population Life expectancy at birth - 70 years Death rate 8 deaths per 1000 population In Latin America & Caribbean (LAC)

Fertility rate 2.2 children per woman Infant mortality rate 20 infant deaths per 1000

population Death rate 6 deaths per 1000 population

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Findings Census 2011 Jamaica, like the rest of Caribbean, has

been similar to the rest of the world – Reduced fertility rates

Declining from 5.8 children per woman in 1970 to 2.3 children per woman in 2011

Slight increase in death rate From 6.4 per 1000 in 2001 to 7.1 per 1000 in 2011

Population aging Median age was 17 in 1970 and 27 in 2011 %age increase in Population over age 65 increased

from 4.3% in 1960 to 8.1% in 2011

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Population changesCensus

Year Population Births DeathsNet

Migration

Annual %age

growth rate

1911 831,400

1921 858,100 370,200 216,400 77,100 0.31

1943 1,246,200 765,300 412,200 25,800 1.67

1960 1,624,400 855,500 287,500 195,200 1.56

1970 1,848,500 676,500 141,300 296,500 1.39

1982 2,190,400 747,788 188,993 216,959 1.40

1991 2,380,700 505,844 133,973 181,601 0.95

2001 2,607,632 603,090 159,733 216,392 0.87

2011 2,697,983 438,318 179,253 168,714 0.36

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Components of Population Change:1921–2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1921 1943 1960 1970 1982 1991 2001 2011

Census Years

Rat

e

Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Net Migration Rate

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Findings Census 2011 Other Features -

Migration rates - though declining – still relatively high

Urbanization - 54 % of population living in urban centres

Use of technology – Telephone access within households increased

from 59.36% in 2001 to 94.04% in 2011 Households with Computers and Internet

Connection increased form 11.86% in 2001 to 26.69% in 2011

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Urbanization

Urban/Rural

2011 2001

Change

%age Change

%age Share of Total

Population

2001-2011

2011 2001

Total 2,697,983

2,607,632

90,351 3.5 100 100

Urban 1,453,438

1,355,334

98,104 7.2 54 52

Rural 1,244,545

1,252,299

-7,754 -0.6 46 48

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Percentage Distribution of the Population by Urban and Rural Census 2011

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

Urban Rural

Per

cent

age

2001 2011

Population Change in the Five Fastest Growing Parish Capitals: 2001 - 2011

CAPITAL PARISH POPULATION % CHANGE 2001-2011

% SHARE OF PARISH

TOTAL 2011

2011 2001

Black River

St Elizabeth 5,352 4,095 31 4

Lucea Hanover 7,131 6,062 14 10Spanish Town

St. Catherine 147,152 131,515

12 29

Montego Bay

St. James 110,115 96,477 14 60

Sav-la-Mar

Westmoreland 22,633 19,893 14 16

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Availability and Access to Use of technology

Telephone access within households increased from 59.36% in 2001 to 94.04% in 2011

Households with Computers and Internet Connection increased from 11.86% in 2001 to 26.69% in 2011

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Number of Households with Computers2001 and 2011

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

Num

ber

of H

ouse

hold

s

2001 88738 638376 21215

2011 246042 612706 22330

With Computer No Computer Not Reported

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STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA 15

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The Population Projections

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Population Projections to 2030 Fertility rates – continue to decline Life expectancy not expected to change

significantly – 70 for men and 75 for women Mortality rates will change with aging

population Net migration rates should remain fairly flat Total population – 2.752 million being

1.355 million males and 1.397 females – based on 2000 projections at the low level

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Components of Population Change 2015-2030

CensusYears

Births, Deaths and Migration in Inter-censal Period

AnnualGrowthRate %

Population Births Deaths

Natural

Increase

Migration

Census 2011 Results

2011 2,697,9

83438,31

8179,25

3259,0

65168,71

4 0.36

Projection Years (data per annum)

2015-2020

2,753,902 47,400 22,000

25,400 20,000 0.19

2020-2025

2,769,224 45,000 23,000

22,000 20,000 0.05

2025-2030

2,752,054 39,000 25,000

14,000 20,000 -0.10

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STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA 20

Changing Age Structure of Population

AgeGroups 1960 2001 2011 2030

0 -14 41.20 32.20 26.10 23.00

15 - 64 54.60 60.10 65.90 66.00

65+ 4.30 7.70 8.10 11.00

100 100 100 100.00

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Vision 2030 Jamaica National Development Plan

STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA 22

Vision 2030 Jamaica – National Development Plan

NATIONAL GOAL # 1

NATIONAL OUTCOMES

Jamaicans are empowered to achieve their fullest potential

1. A Healthy & Stable Population

2. World Class Education & Training

3. Effective Social Protection4. Authentic & Transformational

Culture

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Challenges to achieving National Goal #1a. Inadequate health personnel & infrastructureb. Poor performance of learners, especially boys at

the various levels of educationc. Need for better trained education personneld. Inadequate parentinge. Discrimination against persons with disabilitiesf. Inadequate support for the vulnerable

populationg. Not enough attention being paid to positive

values such as truthfulness & respect for each other

h. Inadequate resources for the development of the creative industries including culture & sports

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The Labour Force July 2012

STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA25

Employed Labour Force by OccupationCategories MALE FEMALE TOTAL

Occupation Groups

Professional 96,104 146,695 242,800

Clerks 22,303 73,209 95,511

Service Worker 84,666 129,718 214,384

Skilled Agri. Worker 160,758 34,844 195,602

Craft & Related Worker 135,271 12,071 147,343

Plant & Machine Operator 52,885 2,878 55,764

Elementary Operator 66,746 75,503 142,249

Not specified 666 374 1,041

Total 619,399 475,2931,094,69

2

26

STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

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Employed Labour Force By Industry

INDUSTRY MaleFemal

e Total

Agri. Forestry and Fishing. 157,231 39,241 196,472

Mining and Quarrying. 3,954 483 4,437

Manufacturing. 49,940 25,006 74,945

Elec. Gas & Water 5,919 2,128 8,047

Construction 81,783 3,470 85,253

Wholesale, Retail & Repairs 96,818 117,831

214,649

Hotels & Restaurant 33,597 48,071 81,668

Transport & Storage 57,917 17,185 75,102

Financial, Real Estate 40,655 41,426 82,082

Public Admin. & Education 48,518 78,618 127,136

Health , Social work & Personal Ser.

33,504 54,435 87,939

Private Household 8,887 45,524 54,411

Industries n/s & Extra Teri. (Embassy)

676 1,875 2,551

TOTAL 619,399 475,293

1,094,692

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Employed Labour Force by Education & Age

Educational Levels

Age Groups

Total 14 -

19

20 - 24

25 - 34

35 - 44 45 - 54

55 - 64 65 +

None 8,86843,13

0161,8

66216,05

3134,72

4

77,255

49,216 691,112

CXC basic, JSC 5 SSC, 3rd JL 169 2,017 7,039 4,417 4,664 1,613 365 20283

CXC Gen, GCE 'O' 1-2 721 6,412 6,978 4,328 2,192 266 0 20897

CXC Gen, GCE 'O' 3-4 1,86610,90

2 18,533 10,944 4,100 807 0 47152

CXC Gen, GCE 'O' 5+ 1,49614,96

8 23,036 8,351 3,824 823 0 52499

GCE 'A' 1-2/, CAPE 1-2 0 1,081 872 175 0 0 140 2268

CAPE/GCE 'A' 3+ 849 1,000 1,278 0 217 73 0 3417

Degree 0 5,489 50,438 45,259 25,72911,16

04,25

4 142,329

Other 204 2,94411,04

2 10,211 6,3002,80

0 636 34,137

Not stated 90

Total

15,220

95,115

305,796

327,413

194,772

99,550

56,737

1,094,692

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Employed L.F. by Industry & Education

INDUSTRY None

CXC Basic, JSC 5 SSC, 3rd JL

CXC

Gen,GCE "O"

GCE "A"& CAPE Degree Other

Not stated TOTAL

Agri. Forestry and Fishing.

181,572 2,090 4,995 73 1,532 1,706 4,412

196,381

Mining and Quarrying. 2,015 0 411 0 1,122 462 428 4,437

Manufacturing. 49,910 700 9,128 343 6,431 2,433 6,000 74,945

Elec. Gas & Water 1,587 186 2,133 0 2,749 504 888 8,047

Construction 71,739 1,212 4,059 665 2,365 832 4,382 85,253

Wholesale, Retail & Repairs

149,383 4,832

24,082 862 9,781 5,637 20,070

214,649

Hotels & Restaurant 50,765 2,22415,00

9 378 3,471 2,022 7,800 81,668

Transport & Storage 43,366 2,082 7,948 753 9,659 1,284 10,009 75,102

Financial, Real Estate 23,867 1,00617,86

7 96928,36

5 2,687 7,322 82,082

Public Admin. & Education 26,956 2,530

22,178 1,123

57,244 7,883 9,221

127,136

Health , Socialwork & Per. Ser. 40,207 2,485

11,873 519

18,352 6,952 7,550 87,939

Private Household 49,214 937 734 0 100 1,736 1,691 54,411

Industries n/s & Extra Ter. 621 0 130 0 1,158 0 732 2,642

Total691,20

3 20,283120,5

48 5,685142,3

2934,13

7 80,5061,094,

692

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The Changing Economy

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The Changing Economic Structure - %age Contribution at Current Price

INDUSTRIES 197

0198

0199

0200

0201

1

1Wholesale, Retail; Repairs;

Install. 18.9 19.2 18.2 19.7 18.9

2Producers of Government

Service 7.9 14.0 7.4 11.7 14.2

3 Real Estate, Renting ,etc. 9.5 8.5 9.9 9.3 12.2

4Financial & Insurance

Services 3.5 4.8 6.8 9.0 10.2

5Transport, Storage &

Commun. 5.5 5.1 8.4 10.7 9.7

6 Manufacturing 15.8 16.6 16.9 10.5 9.2

7 Construction 13.3 5.8 7.2 7.6 7.3

8 Other Services 5.6 4.3 6.0 6.6 6.7

9Agriculture Forestry &

Fishing 6.4 8.2 6.8 7.0 6.5

10 Hotels & Restaurants 1.6 0.9 6.1 5.1 4.3

11 Electricity & Water Supply 1.0 1.6 2.2 3.2 3.6

12 Mining & Quarrying 12.7 14.2 7.8 4.2 1.5

13 Less: FISM 1.7 3.3 3.7 4.6 4.3

  Total Value Added100.

0100.

0100.

0100.

0100.

0

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%age Contribution at Current Price – Comparative Contribution for Each Period

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1970 1980 1990 2000 2011

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Impacts of the Change

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Impact of the Population Change on: HEALTH & WELL BEING

Increasing demand for health facilities & services Affordability Nutrition Entertainment & Exercise Pension Specialists care givers

HOUSING Design Assisted living/ retirement communities Recreation facilities/green spaces

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Impact of the Population Change on: EDUCATION & TRAINING

The demand for school places at all levels The demand for new skill sets Work force will be more technology proficient Work force needs to be more innovative

TRANSPORTATION Services to attend medical appointments, go

shopping, participate in social activities or simply get out of the house.

Government

Transportation

UtilitiesWholesale

& retail

Economy

Population

Age Structure

Culture

Education

Labour Force

Financial

Manufacture

Services Production

Construction

Agriculture &

Fisheries

Mining & Quarrying

Health

Housing

etc

Conclusion

Tourism, etc

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Thank you for having allowed us to share with you!!!

STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA 37

References Population Projections Jamaica 2000 – 2050 –

published by Statistical Institute of Jamaica – April 2008

Population & Housing Census 2011 – Jamaica – General Report – Volume 1 - published by Statistical Institute of Jamaica – October 2011

Vision 2030 – National Development Plan The Labour Force Survey – July 2012 World Population Data Sheet 2012 – Population

Reference Bureau