statpak june 2020 northern virginia… · dc metro area by jurisdiction comparison – may 2020 ....

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 1 Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Bright MLS. “Northern Virginia” is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax. NORTHERN VIRGINIA JUNE 2020 STATPAK McEnearney.com CONTRACTS Contract activity in May 2020 was down 21.4% from May 2019 and was down in all six price categories. Through the first five months of the year, contract activity is down 14.2%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 23 days in May 2020, up from 22 days in May of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was down in May compared to last May. During the past 16 years, the Index has been as high as 95% (April 2004) and as low as 23% (November 2006). In May 2020, the Urgency Index was 77.7%, down from 80.6% in May 2019. INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of May was down 31.3% compared to the end of May 2019 and was lower in all price categories. The number of new listings coming on the market decreased 35.3% compared to May of 2019. Despite the decrease in inventory and contract activity, overall supply dropped to 1.0 months from 1.2 month at the end of May 2019. That’s the lowest supply in the metro area. INTEREST RATES 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of May stood at 3.15%, almost seven-eighths of a point lower than this time last year, slightly lower than the end of last month. These are historic lows for mortgage interest rates and contribute to this being an exceptionally attractive time to purchase a home. AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 19% higher than it was a decade ago in May 2010, but the median price is up 45%. The payment is 5.4% lower than May of last year because of lower interest rates and despite higher prices. The mortgage payment for a median priced home ($2,492) was slightly lower in May than the median rented price ($2,500). DIRECTION OF THE MARKET The Northern Virginia real estate market is showing some encouraging signs of recovering from the significant contraction brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. In April, contract activity fell by 35%, and in May the drop was “only” 21%. Early June numbers are even more encouraging. Yet the hit to the market is undeniable – since mid-March, there have been 25% fewer homes going under contract than the same time last year. However, it is also undeniable that the fundamentals remain strong. Overall supply relative to demand is actually a little tighter than last May, in part because buyers are returning more rapidly than sellers. Average days on market, absorption rates, the urgency index are similar to those of last year. Home prices are holding up. We know a full recovery is still well down the road, but we believe that as more businesses open and more furloughed employees return to work, we’ll see more people taking advantage of historically low interest rates. MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR MAY 2020

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Page 1: STATPAK JUNE 2020 NORTHERN VIRGINIA… · DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison – May 2020 . URGENCY INDEX - May . Northern Virginia • During the past 12 years, the May Urgency

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 1

Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Bright MLS. “Northern Virginia” is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax.

NORTHERN VIRGINIA JUNE 2020 STATPAK

McEnearney.com

CONTRACTS Contract activity in May 2020 was down 21.4% from May 2019 and was down in all six price categories. Through the first five months of the year, contract activity is down 14.2%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 23 days in May 2020, up from 22 days in May of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was down in May compared to last May. During the past 16 years, the Index has been as high as 95% (April 2004) and as low as 23% (November 2006). In May 2020, the Urgency Index was 77.7%, down from 80.6% in May 2019. INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of May was down 31.3% compared to the end of May 2019 and was lower in all price categories. The number of new listings coming on the market decreased 35.3% compared to May of 2019. Despite the decrease in inventory and contract activity, overall supply dropped to 1.0 months from 1.2 month at the end of May 2019. That’s the lowest supply in the metro area. INTEREST RATES 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of May stood at 3.15%, almost seven-eighths of a point lower than this time last year, slightly lower than the end of last month. These are historic lows for mortgage interest rates and contribute to this being an exceptionally attractive time to purchase a home. AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 19% higher than it was a decade ago in May 2010, but the median price is up 45%. The payment is 5.4% lower than May of last year because of lower interest rates and despite higher prices. The mortgage payment for a median priced home ($2,492) was slightly lower in May than the median rented price ($2,500). DIRECTION OF THE MARKET The Northern Virginia real estate market is showing some encouraging signs of recovering from the significant contraction brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. In April, contract activity fell by 35%, and in May the drop was “only” 21%. Early June numbers are even more encouraging. Yet the hit to the market is undeniable – since mid-March, there have been 25% fewer homes going under contract than the same time last year. However, it is also undeniable that the fundamentals remain strong. Overall supply relative to demand is actually a little tighter than last May, in part because buyers are returning more rapidly than sellers. Average days on market, absorption rates, the urgency index are similar to those of last year. Home prices are holding up. We know a full recovery is still well down the road, but we believe that as more businesses open and more furloughed employees return to work, we’ll see more people taking advantage of historically low interest rates.

MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR MAY 2020

Page 2: STATPAK JUNE 2020 NORTHERN VIRGINIA… · DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison – May 2020 . URGENCY INDEX - May . Northern Virginia • During the past 12 years, the May Urgency

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 2

MONTHLY SUMMARY MAY 2019 vs. MAY 2020

May May %NORTHERN VIRGINIA 2019 2020 Change

Number of Closed Sales 2,389 1,624 -32.0%Fully Available Inventory on 5/31 2,900 1,991 -31.3%Number of New Listings 3,311 2,141 -35.3%Number of New Contracts 2,515 1,976 -21.4%Days on Market - New Contracts 22 23 4.5%Average Sales Price $626,745 $642,770 2.6%Average Seller Subsidy $1,942 $2,528 30.2%Urgency Index 80.6% 77.7% -3.6%Months' Supply 1.2 1.0 -12.6%

LOUDOUN COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 743 543 -26.9%Fully Available Inventory on 5/31 1,079 725 -32.8%Number of New Listings 1,113 768 -31.0%Number of New Contracts 787 708 -10.0%Days on Market - New Contracts 24 26 8.3%Average Sales Price $529,167 $569,813 7.7%Average Seller Subsidy $2,276 $3,074 35.1%Urgency Index 78.7% 75.4% -4.2%Months' Supply 1.4 1.0 -25.3%

WASHINGTON, DCNumber of Closed Sales 929 568 -38.9%Fully Available Inventory on 5/31 1,552 1,404 -9.5%Number of New Listings 1,436 1,087 -24.3%Number of New Contracts 987 850 -13.9%Days on Market - New Contracts 27 36 33.3%Average Sales Price $733,274 $747,103 1.9%Average Seller Subsidy $1,884 $3,058 62.3%Urgency Index 76.7% 65.2% -15.0%Months' Supply 1.6 1.7 5.0%

MONTGOMERY COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 1,336 881 -34.1%Fully Available Inventory on 5/31 2,425 1,503 -38.0%Number of New Listings 2,049 1,233 -39.8%Number of New Contracts 1,545 1,171 -24.2%Days on Market - New Contracts 34 34 0.0%Average Sales Price $574,310 $571,854 -0.4%Average Seller Subsidy $3,137 $4,058 29.4%Urgency Index 70.5% 68.7% -2.6%Months' Supply 1.6 1.3 -18.2%

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 1,066 713 -33.1%Fully Available Inventory on 5/31 1,644 1,057 -35.7%Number of New Listings 1,454 1,039 -28.5%Number of New Contracts 1,234 1,102 -10.7%Days on Market - New Contracts 41 35 -14.6%Average Sales Price $326,201 $343,639 5.3%Average Seller Subsidy $5,431 $6,025 10.9%Urgency Index 66.5% 67.4% 1.4%Months' Supply 1.3 1.0 -28.0%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 3

YEAR-TO-DATE SUMMARY 2019 vs. 2020

Jan-May Jan-May %NORTHERN VIRGINIA 2019 2020 Change

Number of Closed Sales 8,415 7,431 -11.7%Average Month-End Available Inventory 2,254 1,784 -20.9%Number of New Listings 13,022 10,797 -17.1%Number of New Contracts 10,374 8,906 -14.2%Days on Market - New Contracts 25 24 -1.5%Average Sales Price $604,247 $645,411 6.8%Average Seller Subsidy $2,147 $2,104 -2.0%Average Urgency Index 80.1% 82.0% 2.4%Average Months' Supply 1.1 1.0 -7.8%

LOUDOUN COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 2,399 2,302 -4.0%Average Month-End Available Inventory 863 681 -21.1%Number of New Listings 4,246 3,649 -14.1%Number of New Contracts 3,171 2,858 -9.9%Days on Market - New Contracts 28 27 -4.1%Average Sales Price $528,299 $572,490 8.4%Average Seller Subsidy $2,647 $2,556 -3.4%Average Urgency Index 77.5% 80.7% 4.1%Average Months' Supply 1.4 1.2 -12.5%

WASHINGTON, DCNumber of Closed Sales 3,496 3,177 -9.1%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,320 1,275 -3.4%Number of New Listings 5,797 5,117 -11.7%Number of New Contracts 4,371 3,810 -12.8%Days on Market - New Contracts 38 40 5.7%Average Sales Price $711,067 $728,148 2.4%Average Seller Subsidy $2,321 $2,830 21.9%Average Urgency Index 69.7% 66.8% -4.2%Average Months' Supply 1.5 1.7 10.8%

MONTGOMERY COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 4,375 4,262 -2.6%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,895 1,371 -27.6%Number of New Listings 7,774 6,256 -19.5%Number of New Contracts 5,962 5,133 -13.9%Days on Market - New Contracts 43 37 -12.4%Average Sales Price $545,059 $562,754 3.2%Average Seller Subsidy $3,460 $3,689 6.6%Average Urgency Index 67.6% 69.9% 3.4%Average Months' Supply 1.6 1.3 -16.0%

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 3,913 3,589 -8.3%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,614 1,144 -29.1%Number of New Listings 6,199 5,355 -13.6%Number of New Contracts 5,811 4,924 -15.3%Days on Market - New Contracts 51 41 -19.4%Average Sales Price $307,611 $335,077 8.9%Average Seller Subsidy $5,608 $6,164 9.9%Average Urgency Index 56.8% 65.0% 14.4%Average Months' Supply 1.4 1.2 -16.3%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend

Year-to-Date

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 4

NORTHERN VIRGINIA – Detail Pages (Fairfax & Arlington Counties, Alexandria, Falls Church and Fairfax Cities)

BUYING POWER • A $1,000 principal and interest

payment supported a loan of $232,701 at the end of May, which is $22,987 more than May 2019, and $44,496 more than May 2009.

• In May 2010, it would have taken a monthly PI payment of $2,094 to purchase a median-priced home – now it takes $2,494, a 19% increase.

• Lower interest rates have helped offset the $180,000 increase (up 45%) in the median price since May 2010.

BUYING POWER Mortgage Amount with $1,000 Payment

AVERAGE PRICES • The average sales price in May

2020 was $642,770, up 2.6% from the May 2019 average price of $626,745.

• The median sales price was $585,000 in May 2020, up 6.0% from the median price in May 2019.

• Remember that these indicators are arithmetic computations based on all properties sold and do not indicate the appreciation or depreciation of any individual property.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Northern Virginia – 2012-Current

MORTGAGE RATES • 30-year fixed interest rates at

the end of May averaged 3.15%, compared to 3.99% at the end of May 2019.

• One-year adjustable rate mortgages were 3.13% at the end of May 2020, which is down from 3.60% at the end of May 2019.

30-YEAR FIXED AND 1-YEAR ADJUSTABLE RATES Month-End Mortgage Rates – 2013-Current

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 5

URGENCY INDEX – DC Metro Area • The average May Urgency Index

during the past 12 years for all five of the jurisdictions we track is 66.2% – lower than where we are today, which is 71.8% for all five jurisdictions.

• Northern Virginia is in first place this month. As noted above, it is higher than its 12-year average.

URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison – May 2020

URGENCY INDEX - May • During the past 12 years, the May

Urgency Index has been as high as 80.3% and as low as 54.1%.

• The average May Urgency Index in Northern Virginia during the past 12 years is 69.6% – which is lower than where we are today.

• Contract activity is down 21.4% from last May – and the Urgency Index decreased from 80.6% to 77.7%.

URGENCY INDEX Northern Virginia – May 2009-2020

URGENCY INDEX – 2016-Current • This chart compares the number

of contracts (green line) to the percent that were on the market 30 days or less (blue bars). At first glance, it might appear that the lower contract activity also means a lower percentage of homes that sell quickly – but that’s not always true.

• Across the DC metro area, as contract activity has fallen in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the urgency index has changed very little.

URGENCY INDEX % of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less

Northern Virginia – 2016-Current

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 6

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS • As noted on page 2, the month-

end inventory decreased 31.3% for May 2020 compared to May 2019 – and the number of homes coming on the market decreased 35.3%.

• Inventory is down for all price categories.

• 25.4% of all homes on the market have had at least one price reduction since coming on the market. Last May 31.5% of all homes on the market had at least one price reduction.

MONTHS’ SUPPLY • The overall supply of homes on

the market at the end of May was 1.0 month, which decreased 12.6% compared to the end of May 2019. Northern Virginia has the lowest supply in the region.

• Price category supply ranges from a low of 0.5 months for homes priced $300,000-$499,999 and a high of 7.9 months for homes priced $1,500,000 and higher.

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS Northern Virginia – May 31, 2019 vs. May 31, 2020

MONTHS’ SUPPLY Northern Virginia – End of May 2019 vs. End of May 2020

NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY • The number of new contracts

ratified in May 2020 was down 21.4% from the number of contracts ratified in May 2019 and was down for all price categories.

• As noted on page 3, contract activity year-to-date is down 14.2%.

• Only 17.3% of all homes going under contract in May 2020 had at least one price reduction before going under contract. Last May it was 18.1%.

NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Northern Virginia – May 2019 vs. May 2020 by Price Range

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0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

$0 - $299,999

$300,000 - $499,999

$500,000 - $749,999

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$1,000,000 - $1,499,999

$1,500,000 and higher

# of New Contracts

May 2020

May 2019

Page 7: STATPAK JUNE 2020 NORTHERN VIRGINIA… · DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison – May 2020 . URGENCY INDEX - May . Northern Virginia • During the past 12 years, the May Urgency

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 7

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET • As we have noted in this space

for years, initial pricing strategy is critical to sellers’ success.

• Homes settling in May 2020 that received contracts their first week on the market sold, on average, 1.0% above original list price. Those that took 4 months or longer to sell sold for 8.5% below original list price.

SOME DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS TO AID YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE DATA • All data describing “Northern Virginia” include the counties of Arlington and Fairfax, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon & Clifton • The data shown here are collected, in whole or in part, from the Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc, and are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed • “Sales” are transactions that settled during the statistical period; “Under Contracts” are contracts negotiated during the statistical period, but not yet settled • “Available Listings” reflects single-family homes, town homes, new homes and condos on the market at the end of the period in question. • “Months’ Supply” is simply the number of “Fully Available Listings” on the market at the end of the month divided by the number of “Contracts” ratified that month.

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS AND CONTRACTS; ACTIVE LISTINGS

Northern Virginia – January 2014-Current

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET

Resale Properties Sold in Northern Virginia – May 2019 vs. May 2020

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON THE MARKET – NEW CONTRACTS • The average number of days on

the market for homes receiving contracts in May was up for three price categories.

• Overall, the average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts in May 2020 was just 23 days, up 4.5% from 22 days in May 2019.

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, CONTRACTS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS • There were 2,141 new listings

that came on the market in May 2020, down 35.3% from the 3,311 in May 2019.

• The lines representing active listings (green), new listings (blue) and new contracts (red) have narrowed since the middle of last year, and now overlap.

• This remained true in May despite the much slower market.

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON MARKET Northern Virginia – May 2019 vs. May 2020 – New Contracts

17.4

12.0

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$0 - $299,999

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$1,500,000 and higher

May 2020

May 2019

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 8

Analysis by Property Type – Condo/Co-op

CONDO/CO-OP – LISTINGS • The number of new listings for

condos and co-ops coming on the market was down 32.7% compared to May 2019.

• The fully available inventory of condos as of May 31, 2020 was 12.3% less than the same time in 2019.

LISTINGS

CONDO/CO-OP – CONTRACTS • The number of condos and

co-ops receiving ratified contracts decreased 23.4% in May 2020 compared to May 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is down 18.1% compared to 2019.

CONTRACTS

CONDO/CO-OP – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of condos and

co-ops settling in May 2020 decreased 38.6% compared to May 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements is down 17.7%.

• The average price was up 3.9% compared to May 2019.

• Year-to-date, the average price is up 6.6%.

SETTLEMENTS

Condo/Co-opListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 392 208 -46.9% 203 137 -32.5%$300,000 - $499,999 323 245 -24.1% 170 162 -4.7%$500,000 - $749,999 99 89 -10.1% 101 102 1.0%$750,000 - $999,999 19 13 -31.6% 38 24 -36.8%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 3 7 133.3% 15 28 86.7%$1,500,000 & higher 7 5 -28.6% 24 30 25.0%Grand Total: 843 567 -32.7% 551 483 -12.3%

New This Month Total Active

Condo/Co-opContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 347 213 -38.6% 1474 1050 -28.8%$300,000 - $499,999 270 237 -12.2% 1098 1013 -7.7%$500,000 - $749,999 63 69 9.5% 296 290 -2.0%$750,000 - $999,999 13 11 -15.4% 84 63 -25.0%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 2 4 100.0% 22 16 -27.3%$1,500,000 & higher 2 0 -100.0% 11 12 9.1%Grand Total: 697 534 -23.4% 2985 2444 -18.1%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Condo/Co-opSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 298 153 -48.7% 1212 845 -30.3%$300,000 - $499,999 260 179 -31.2% 948 886 -6.5%$500,000 - $749,999 75 57 -24.0% 273 257 -5.9%$750,000 - $999,999 15 11 -26.7% 66 60 -9.1%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 6 0 -100.0% 22 17 -22.7%$1,500,000 & higher 1 2 100.0% 5 13 160.0%Grand Total: 655 402 -38.6% 2526 2078 -17.7%

Average Sales Price: May 2019 May 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeCondo/Co-op $360,597 $374,840 3.9% $351,850 $375,195 6.6%

New This Month Year-To-Date

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 9

Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Attached

ATTACHED HOMES – LISTINGS • The number of new listings

coming on the market in May 2020 for fee simple attached homes decreased 28.3% from May 2019.

• Fully active inventory at the end of May was down 21.0% compared to the available inventory at the end of May 2019.

LISTINGS

ATTACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS • Contract activity for attached

homes decreased 17.0% in May 2020 compared to May 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is down 10.5%.

CONTRACTS

ATTACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of settlements

decreased 30.9% in May 2020 compared to May 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements decreased 6.7%.

• The average sales price decreased 2.1% in May 2020 compared to May 2019.

• The average price year-to-date is up 4.2%.

SETTLEMENTS

Fee Simple AttachedListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 16 3 -81.3% 4 0 -100.0%$300,000 - $499,999 389 237 -39.1% 138 86 -37.7%$500,000 - $749,999 252 219 -13.1% 159 134 -15.7%$750,000 - $999,999 65 52 -20.0% 62 62 0.0%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 17 27 58.8% 15 25 66.7%$1,500,000 & higher 14 2 -85.7% 22 9 -59.1%Grand Total: 753 540 -28.3% 400 316 -21.0%

New This Month Total Active

Fee Simple AttachedContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 17 4 -76.5% 57 24 -57.9%$300,000 - $499,999 339 244 -28.0% 1412 1112 -21.2%$500,000 - $749,999 188 197 4.8% 815 875 7.4%$750,000 - $999,999 44 44 0.0% 183 189 3.3%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 19 17 -10.5% 82 79 -3.7%$1,500,000 & higher 6 3 -50.0% 21 20 -4.8%Grand Total: 613 509 -17.0% 2570 2299 -10.5%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Fee Simple AttachedSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 9 3 -66.7% 40 22 -45.0%$300,000 - $499,999 316 212 -32.9% 1099 900 -18.1%$500,000 - $749,999 207 165 -20.3% 720 804 11.7%$750,000 - $999,999 48 29 -39.6% 161 150 -6.8%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 25 12 -52.0% 66 66 0.0%$1,500,000 & higher 4 0 -100.0% 13 16 23.1%Grand Total: 609 421 -30.9% 2099 1958 -6.7%

Average Sales Price: May 2019 May 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeFee Simple Attached $551,240 $539,600 -2.1% $540,099 $563,016 4.2%

New This Month Year-To-Date

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 10

DETACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS • There was a decrease of 22.6% in

the number of contracts on detached homes in May 2020 compared to May 2019.

• There is basically no inventory for would-be purchasers looking to buy for less than $300,000.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is down 13.6%.

CONTRACTS

DETACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of settlements in

May was down 28.8% compared to last May. Year-to-date, the number of settlements has decreased 10.4%.

• The average sales price for detached homes increased 1.1% in May 2020 compared to May 2019.

• The average sales price year-to-date is up 6.2%.

SETTLEMENTS

Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Detached

DETACHED HOMES – LISTINGS • The number of new listings for

fee simple detached homes decreased 39.7% in May 2020 compared to May 2019.

• The number of detached homes on the market on May 31, 2020 was down 38.8% compared to May 31, 2019.

LISTINGS

Fee Simple DetachedListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 2 0 -100.0% 0 0 -$300,000 - $499,999 136 47 -65.4% 66 22 -66.7%$500,000 - $749,999 686 389 -43.3% 456 213 -53.3%$750,000 - $999,999 462 292 -36.8% 479 248 -48.2%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 268 174 -35.1% 481 258 -46.4%$1,500,000 & higher 161 132 -18.0% 467 451 -3.4%Grand Total: 1715 1034 -39.7% 1949 1192 -38.8%

Total ActiveNew This Month

Fee Simple DetachedContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 0 1 - 3 5 66.7%$300,000 - $499,999 122 49 -59.8% 513 303 -40.9%$500,000 - $749,999 536 409 -23.7% 2157 1776 -17.7%$750,000 - $999,999 323 272 -15.8% 1256 1222 -2.7%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 154 143 -7.1% 615 586 -4.7%$1,500,000 & higher 70 59 -15.7% 275 271 -1.5%Grand Total: 1205 933 -22.6% 4819 4163 -13.6%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Fee Simple DetachedSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 0 0 - 6 1 -83.3%$300,000 - $499,999 102 46 -54.9% 397 247 -37.8%$500,000 - $749,999 528 368 -30.3% 1752 1464 -16.4%$750,000 - $999,999 286 231 -19.2% 949 958 0.9%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 151 120 -20.5% 489 499 2.0%$1,500,000 & higher 58 36 -37.9% 197 226 14.7%Grand Total: 1125 801 -28.8% 3790 3395 -10.4%

Average Sales Price: May 2019 May 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeFee Simple Detached $822,576 $831,462 1.1% $807,993 $858,324 6.2%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Page 11: STATPAK JUNE 2020 NORTHERN VIRGINIA… · DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison – May 2020 . URGENCY INDEX - May . Northern Virginia • During the past 12 years, the May Urgency

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 11

Absorption Rate by Property Type The following tables track absorption rate by property type, comparing the rates in the just-completed month to the rates in the same month of the previous year. The absorption rate is a measure of the health of the market and tracks the percentage of homes that were on the market during the given month and in the given price range that went under contract. [The formula is # Contracts/(# Contracts + # Available).] An example: The absorption rate for detached homes priced $500,000-$749,999 in May 2020 was 65.8%. That compares to a rate of 54.0% in May 2019, and the increase means the market was better in 2020 for that type of home. If the absorption rate was less in 2020 than in 2019, we have put the 2020 rate in red. This month there was improvement for 12 of 18 individual price categories with activity.

ABSORPTION RATES – CONDOS AND CO-OPS • The overall absorption rate for

condos and co-ops for May 2020 was 52.5%, a decrease from the 55.8% rate in May 2019.

ABSORPTION RATES – ATTACHED HOMES • The overall absorption rate for

attached homes in May 2020 was 61.7%, a slight increase from the 60.5% rate in May 2019.

ABSORPTION RATES – DETACHED HOMES • May 2020’s absorption rate for

detached homes was 43.9%, an increase from the 38.2% rate in May 2019.

• There were no homes priced less than $300K on the market at the end of the month.

Condo/Co-opAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 203 347 63.1% 137 213 60.9%$300,000 - $499,999 170 270 61.4% 162 237 59.4%$500,000 - $749,999 101 63 38.4% 102 69 40.4%$750,000 - $999,999 38 13 25.5% 24 11 31.4%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 15 2 11.8% 28 4 12.5%$1,500,000 & higher 24 2 7.7% 30 0 0.0%Grand Total: 551 697 55.8% 483 534 52.5%

May 2019 May 2020

Fee Simple AttachedAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 4 17 81.0% 0 4 100.0%$300,000 - $499,999 138 339 71.1% 86 244 73.9%$500,000 - $749,999 159 188 54.2% 134 197 59.5%$750,000 - $999,999 62 44 41.5% 62 44 41.5%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 15 19 55.9% 25 17 40.5%$1,500,000 & higher 22 6 21.4% 9 3 25.0%Grand Total: 400 613 60.5% 316 509 61.7%

May 2019 May 2020

Fee Simple DetachedAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 0 0 - 0 1 -$300,000 - $499,999 66 122 64.9% 22 49 69.0%$500,000 - $749,999 456 536 54.0% 213 409 65.8%$750,000 - $999,999 479 323 40.3% 248 272 52.3%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 481 154 24.3% 258 143 35.7%$1,500,000 & higher 467 70 13.0% 451 59 11.6%Grand Total: 1949 1205 38.2% 1192 933 43.9%

May 2020May 2019