status of the mems industry new drivers: the path to new ...© 2010 copyrights © yole...

© 2010

Copyrights © Yole Développement SARL. All rights reserved.

Status of the MEMS industry

New Drivers: the Path to New Opportunities JC Eloy ([email protected])

© 2011• 2

Yole Développement

•  Yole Développement is a market research, technology and strategy consulting company, founded in 1998 and involved in the following fields:

•  MEMS •  Advanced packaging (3D IC, TSV, SoC, WLP…) •  Power electronics •  LED & HB LED •  Compound semiconductor business (SiC, GaN, AlN, ZnO, Thick SOI…)

at substrate and device level •  Photovoltaic, from equipment and materials to cell business •  Microfluidics and medical technologies

•  Our research is performed by in-house personnel conducting open-ended discussion based interviews.

•  30 full time analysts with technical and marketing degrees •  Primary research includes over 3,500 interviews annually

•  Our customers’ base and perspectives are global.

© 2011• 3 2011 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All right reserved.

4 business models

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© 2011• 5

MEMS MARKETS UPDATE


The 200+ MEMS applications tracked by Yole


Maturity of selected MEMS devices in 2012 2015 revenue and CAGR

Microdisplay for mobile devices / $108M, 110.2%

MEMS Auto Focus for consumer cameramodules / $144M, 348.6%

Silicon oscillators for consumer, mobile, networking / $272M, 78.2%

Energy harvesting, MEMS Micromotors for watch industry… / <$10M

Development Decline

MEMS Speakers for consumer applications / $91M

Microphones for mobile applications / $508M, 11.3%

BAW duplexers for mobile devices / $507M, 10.2%

Emerging Mature

Accelero/Gyros combos for mobile phones & tablets / $628M, 80.9%

9/10DOF inertial combos for mobile phones and tablets/ $166M, 105.0%

Optical MEMS for front projection / $1098M, 6.7%

MEMS mirrors for integrated and standalone picoprojectors / $135M, 62.8%

Optical MEMS switch for WSS ROADM / $262M, 19.3%

RF-MEMS switches/varicaps for radio front end module / $97M, 171.5%

Microbolometers for defense, security, industrial, auto / $452M, 12.9%

Automotive TPMS / $391M, 10.6%

Accelero / Gyro combos for auto applications (ESC…) / $223M, 49.1%


2011-2017 MEMS market forecast (in USM$)

•  We project the MEMS market to grow at ~13% CAGR in value from 2011 - 2017

Yole Developpement © March 2012

$0M

$5,000M

$10,000M

$15,000M

$20,000M

$25,000M

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MEMS Market forecast 2009-‐2017 value (in M$)

Others (microstructures, micro :ps, flow meter …)

Oscillators

RF MEMS

Microdispensers (microfluidics)

Microfluidics for IVD

Microfluidics for Research

Other op:cal MEMS

Projec:on systems

Micro displays

PIR & Thermopiles

Microbolometers

Iner:al combos

Digital Compass

Gyroscopes

Accelerometers

Microphones

Pressure Sensors

InkJet Heads

US

$M


2011-2017 MEMS market forecast (in USM$)

CAGR 26% 68% 16% 22% 19% 33% 23% 14% 77% 11% 13% 74% 9% 6% 2% 15% 9% 3%

TOTAL


MEMS market forecast shipments (in Munits)

CAGR 44% 68% 22% 15% 34% 39% 47% 91% 94% 18% 22% 101% 31% 18% 9% 22% 24% 2%

TOTAL


InkJet Heads $1,939 9%

Pressure Sensors $2,240 11%

Microphones $835 4%

Accelerometers $1,564 8%

Gyroscopes $1,468 7%

Compasses $448 2% Mo:on sensor

Combos $1 693 8%

Uncooled IR $652 3%

u-‐displays $261 1%

Op:cal MEMS $2,555 12%

Microfluidics $4,794 23%

RF MEMS $1,028 5%

Oscillators $463 2%

Other MEMS $991 5%

MEMS market value 2011 / 2017 (in M$)

InkJet Heads $1,477 15%

Pressure Sensors $1,406 14%

Microphones $436 4%

Accelerometers $1,520 15%

Gyroscopes $1,287 13%

Compasses $364 4%

Mo:on sensor Combos

$77 1%

Uncooled IR $351 3%

u-‐displays $5 0%

Op:cal MEMS $1,061 11%

Microfluidics $1,444 14%

RF MEMS $419 4%

Oscillators $24 0%

Others MEMS $247 2%

2017 MEMS Market Value Breakdown

2011 MEMS Market Value Breakdown

TOT ~ $10B

TOT ~ $21B

•  We forecast that optical MEMS, microfluidic, pressure sensors and Motion sensor combo units (mixing gyroscope, accelerometers and magnetometer functionalities) will experience the highest ‘grow versus volume’ ratio in the next 5 years to come

Yole Developpement © March 2012 Yole Developpement

© March 2012

© 2011• 14

Evolution of the structure of the industry


2011 MEMS Ranking in $M – TOP 30 players

856

640

807

637

259 286

264

191

305

207 226

240

230

145

142

120

132

86 13

0

102 16

3

75

80

63

58

60

54

62

29 55

913

907

762

738

362

336

284

279

261

255

251

250

237

174

153

150

144

144

136

121

110

102

90

77

76

75

62

56

55

51

$0.0

$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

TEXA

S INSTRU

MEN

TS

STMICRO

ELEC

TRONICS

HEW

LETT PAC

KARD

ROBE

RT BOSCH

KNOWLES ELEC

TRONICS

PANASO

NIC

CANON

AKM

SEIKO EPSON

ANALO

G DEV

ICES

AVAG

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GIES

FREESCALE

SEMICONDUCTOR

DEN

SO

SENSATA

HONEYWELL

INFINEO

N

TECH

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GIES

BOEH

RINGER

INGELHEIM

MICRO

PART

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INVE

NSENSE

GE SENSING

VTI TECHNOLO

GIES

LEXM

ARK

TRIQUINT

FLIR SYSTEMS

SONY

KIONIX

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MEA

SURE

MEN

T SPECIALTIES INC.

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MURA

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US$M re

venu

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2011 TOP 30 MEMS Players Yole Développement March 2012

Series1 Series2 2011 2010 « Big 4 »

« 2nd tiers »

•  TI, STMicro, HP and Bosch are the “Big 4” MEMS players with annual revenues > $700M

•  More than 25 “2nd tiers” players generate annual revenues from $50M to $300M



2011 MEMS Ranking – 2011/2010 CAGR TOP 30 Ranking

-‐40.0%

-‐20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

2011/2010 CAGR Ranking TOP 30 MEMS Players


2011 MEMS Ranking in $M – TOP 70 $49.2

$37.0

$28.0 $30.0

$41.0

$32.0

$15.6

$32.0

$38.0

$49.0

$21.0

$31.0

$24.0

$20.0

$26.2

$21.0

$40.0

$9.1 $1

2.0 $1

5.0

$19.0

$17.0

$12.0

$11.0

$7.0

$7.0

$0.0

$4.0

$4.0

$4.0

$49.6

$47.0

$44.1

$40.0

$37.0

$36.9

$35.0

$34.0

$32.0

$31.0

$30.2

$26.7

$26.3

$24.0

$23.0

$22.6

$22.0

$21.4

$21.2

$18.6

$16.0

$15.2

$15.0

$13.9

$13.0

$13.0

$12.0

$11.8

$9.9

$9.0

$7.0

$7.0

$6.0

$6.0

$5.6

$5.0

$5.0

$5.0

$4.3

$4.2

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

US$M

2011 TOP 70 MEMS Players Yole Développement March 2012

Series1

Series2 2011

2010


$240.0

$20.0

$37.0

$30.0

$31.0

$24.0

$20.0 $30.0

$14.0

$12.0

$15.0

$19.0

$12.0

$11.0

$5.0

$35.0

$7.0

$7.0

$4.0

$4.0

$2.0

$244.6

$49.0

$47.0

$37.0

$26.3

$24.0

$23.0

$20.1

$17.3

$16.0

$15.2

$15.0

$12.0

$11.8

$9.0

$9.0

$7.5

$7.0

$7.0

$6.0

$4.3

$4.2

$4.0

$2.6

$2.0

$1.8

$0.0

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

US$M

2011 MEMS Foundries Ranking Yole Développement March 2012

Series1

Series2

2011 MEMS Foundries Ranking

2011

2012


6’’ vs. 8’’ wafer size breakdown


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% 6" 76.3% 71.7% 67.0% 64.0% 61.0% 59.6% 57.6% 54.4% 52.2%

% 8" 23.7% 28.3% 33.0% 36.0% 39.0% 40.4% 42.4% 45.6% 47.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

% W

afer Use

6'' vs. 8" MEMS wafer size evoluUon

8’’ fabs (2012)

The total number of processed MEMS wafers will grow from 2.5M 8’’ eq. in 2011 to 5.6M 8’’ eq. In 2017.

© 2011• 20

Mobile phone is becoming really a big Mems business...


MEMS & Sensors in mobile phones


• MEMS timing devices • MEMS switch / variable capacitors • BAW filters • BAW duplexers

• Accelerometers • Magnetometers • Gyroscopes • 6 to 9DOF inertial combos

• Auto-Focus • Microdisplay • Micro-mirror for picroprojectors

• Energy harvesting • Environmental sensors (temperature, humidity…) • Micro fuel cells • Microspeakers • Touchscreen • Joystick • …

Global MEMS Market for Mobile Phones / Tablets Breakdown by product category

• Silicon microphones • Pressure sensors


Emergence of combo sensors in consumer

•  Global consumer motion sensor market is still growing quickly –  2011-2016 CAGR = 11,4% in value (18,6% in volume)

•  After few years of strong growth, the market for standalone motion sensors stabilizes

•  Combo sensors are predicted to surge in the coming years –  Predicted to be $1,04B in 2016 (1,15B units)


Key MEMS suppliers to cell phone makers (as of May 2012)

For Nokia: •  ST Micro, Analog Devices (MEMS

acceleros)

•  ST Micro (MEMS gyros)

•  AKM, Aichi MI (magnetos)

•  Knowles, ST Micro (MEMS microphones)

For Samsung: •  ST Micro, Bosch Sensortec, Kionix

(MEMS acceleros)

•  ST Micro, InvenSense (MEMS gyros)

•  AKM (magnetos)

•  Knowles (MEMS microphones)

•  TriQuint, Avago (BAW filters)

•  Wispry (RF-MEMS antenna tuner)

•  TI (micromirrors)

For Apple: •  ST Micro (MEMS acceleros)



•  Knowles, AAC Acoustics (MEMS microphones)


For LG: •  Bosch Sensortec,

Kionix, Freescale (MEMS acceleros)

•  InvenSense (MEMS gyros)


•  TriQuint (BAW filters)

For ZTE: •  Kionix, Freescale

(MEMS acceleros)



For RIM: •  Bosch Sensortec,

Freescale (MEMS acceleros)


•  TriQuint (BAW filters)

For HTC: •  InvenSense (MEMS gyros)

•  Avago, TriQuint (BAW filters)

For Motorola: •  Kionix, ST Micro (MEMS

acceleros)


•  AKM (magnetos) Knowles (MEMS microphones)



Key MEMS suppliers to tablet makers (as of May 2012)

For Apple: •  ST Micro (MEMS acceleros)



•  Analog Devices, AAC Acoustics (MEMS microphones)

For Samsung: •  ST Micro, Kionix (MEMS acceleros)

•  ST Micro, InvenSense (MEMS gyros)



For Asus: •  Kionix (MEMS acceleros)


For Acer: •  Kionix (MEMS acceleros)


For RIM: •  Bosch Sensortec, Freescale

(MEMS acceleros)


For LG: •  Kionix, ST Micro (MEMS acceleros)





For HP: •  Freescale (MEMS

acceleros)

•  ST Micro (Combo Accel Magneto)

For Motorola: •  Kionix, ST Micro (MEMS acceleros)


For Barnes & Noble: •  Kionix (MEMS acceleros)

For Amazon: •  Freescale (MEMS acceleros)



Accelerometers - Freescale

- Kionix

Digital Compasses

- AKM

Gyroscopes - InvenSense

- Epson Toyocom

ST Bosch

Motion Sensing Companies

•  Although the number of competitors is high, only a few companies today really dominate the market:


Sucessful companies are large leader in distinct MEMS categories Top 4 players have >50% market shares on 5 different MEMS markets


2009-2011 market shares evolutions ST is growing, Avago decrease InvenSense appears


2011 market shares for discrete inertial sensors


Accelero/Gyros 6DOF + 9/10DOF for mobile phones & tablets

Value chain estimation in 2015

MEMS die manufacturing

$80M - $100M

ASIC die manufacturing

$140M - $160M

FE assembly, test, yield losses

$100M - $140M

Final assembly & packaging

$80M - $120M

Final test, calibration, yield losses

$50M - $80M

Gross Margin

$300M - $350M

+ Software sale (typically 50 cents per component, for part of the market) $100M - $140M

2012 market: $130M, 63 Munits 2015 market: $824M, 726Munits


Inertial sensors value chain in 2011

•  In 2011, the inertial sensor industry is now a $2.6 Billion business! –  ~ $450M is related to the MEMS Front-end. This area is stable because the MEMS die cost is being strongly reduced

–  ~ $350M is related to the ASIC Front-end. This is growing because although the technology nodes are more and more advanced, the need for larger processing capabilities (sometimes with MCUs) increase with combo sensors

–  ~ $420M is related to the Back-end / Packaging. This area will grow a lot thanks to increasing expertise needed for combo sensors

–  ~ $270M is linked to Test & Calibration. It is strongly growing, driven by 3-axis gyroscopes and combo sensors

–  ~ $30M is linked to Software features. It is small today but definitively poised for important growth in the future, especially for combo sensors (for sensor fusion…)

MEMS Front-end Back-end / Packaging

Test & Calibration Software

~ $450M ~ $350M ~ $270M ~ $30M

~ $2.6B industry! (consumer + auto)

ASIC Front-end

~ $420M

SMDK

+ $1.1B gross margin (Cost of sales, G&A, R&D, Operational margin)


Discussion…

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