status quo thinking “heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” – lord kelvin, 1895...
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Status Quo ThinkingStatus Quo Thinking
“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” – Lord Kelvin, 1895
“A severe depression like that of 1920-1921 is outside the range of probability.” – Harvard Economic Society, 1929
“With only fifty foreign cars on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big stake in the U.S.” – Business Week, 1968
“I think there is a world market for about five computers.” – Thomas Watson - IBM, 1943
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” – Ken Olson - DEC, 1977
“We don’t like [the Beatles’] sound. Groups of guitars are on the way out.” – Decca Recording, 1962
“No matter what happens, the U.S. Navy is not going to be caught napping.” – Secretary of the Navy, December 4, 1941
Presented by:Ken Dozier
Date:July 31, 1997
More paper
is better!
USC Business Development USC Business Development ModelModel
Scenario Description
U N I V E R S I T Y O F S O U T H E R N C A L I F O R N I A E N G I N E E R I N G T E C H N O L O G Y T R A N S F E R C E N T E R
Presented by:Ken Dozier
Date:July 31, 1997
Organizational ChartOrganizational Chart
Presented by:Ken Dozier
Date:July 31, 1997
USC Engineering Technology Transfer Center
The RTTC NetworkThe RTTC Network
Presented by:Ken Dozier
Date:July 31, 1997
We provide:• Affiliates in Every State
• Information Dissemination
• Technical Assistance
• Regional Incubators Technology Licensing
• Cooperative R&D
• Reimbursable Technology Development
• Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR)
Far West
Mid-ContinentSoutheast
Mid-Atlantic
NortheastMid-West
““There is a There is a betterbetter and and easiereasier way to do way to do everything — everything — find it!”find it!”
- Thomas Edison
• Disciplined method for imagining the future by examining the joint simultaneous impact of several uncertainties
• Attempts to identify patterns and clusters• Particularly good when examining revolutionary change• Compensate for underprediction (most common error by
institutions) and overprediction (most common error by futurists)
• Looks to plot a middle ground by using:– incremental expansion of trends (momentum)– possible states of a highly uncertain factor (interest rates)
InnovationInnovation
Presented by:Ken Dozier
Date:July 31, 1997
Management TrendsManagement Trends
Presented by:Ken Dozier
Date:July 31, 1997
SeattleSeattle
Aerospace/Defense
RichlandRichland
Business Services
San Francisco Bay AreaSan Francisco Bay AreaElectronics Machinery and Systems
Biomedical Products
Los AngelesLos Angeles
Aerospace/Defense
MercedMerced
Agriculture and Food Products
Las VegasLas Vegas
Tourism and Recreation
RenoReno
Tourism and Recreation
ModestoModesto
Agriculture and Food Products
Electronics Machineryand Systems
Biomedical Products
Business Services
Info/Media and Entertainment
Educational Services
Tourism and Recreation
Financial Services
Transportation and Distribution
Home andLifestyle Products
Fashion, Appareland Textiles
Health Services
Agriculture and Food Processing
Energy and Process Materials
Forest Products
Metals
Construction Products
Industry ClustersIndustry Clusters
Presented by:Ken Dozier
Date:Sept. 5, 1997
for the Far West Region