steffen m olsen, polar oceanography, dmi, copenhagen dk
DESCRIPTION
CT3 Barcelona 6-8/10 2012. NACLIM Core Theme 3: People. GEOMAR (6) Mojib Latif (CT/WP lead) Wonsun Park Thomas Martin MPG (2) Johann Jungclaus ( tbc ) Katja Lohmann ( tbc ) UHAM (1) Detlef Stammer Armin Köhl DMI (7) Steffen M. Olsen (CT/WP lead) Jacob L. Høyer - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
CT3 Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
NACLIM Core Theme 3:People
GEOMAR (6)• Mojib Latif (CT/WP lead)• Wonsun Park• Thomas Martin
MPG (2)• Johann Jungclaus (tbc)• Katja Lohmann (tbc)
UHAM (1)• Detlef Stammer• Armin Köhl
DMI (7)• Steffen M. Olsen (CT/WP lead)• Jacob L. Høyer• Rasmus T. Tonboe• Torben Schmith
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
CT3 Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Suitability of the ocean observing system components for
initialization
Impact of Arctic initialization on forecast
skill
Initialization of prediction systems with ocean observations
WP 3.1Mojib Latif
WP 3.2Steffen M. Olsen
NACLIM Core Theme 3:Structure
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
CT3 Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Suitability of the ocean observing system components for
initialization
WP 3.1
NACLIM Core Theme 3:WP 3.1
Objectives• Investigate and quantify the benefit of
different components of the ocean observing system for prediction systems (decadal)
• Identify necessary enhancements and potential reductions in the present system
Methodology• Ideal model World hindcast experiments using the adjoint assimilation
system of UHAM - an environment for climate model initialization
• Re-start simulations with truncated ocean initial conditions corresponding to different ocean regions and observing systems
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
CT3 Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
NACLIM Core Theme 3:WP 3.1
Deliverables
D9 (GEOMAR, month 12): Report on the setup of coupled model and hindcasts conducted with initial conditions corresponding to ARGO-like sampling
D 26 (GEOMAR, month 24): Report on hindcasts conducted with initial conditions extended to include ”RAPID”, and on the feasibility of decadal forecasts with the current ocean observing system
D 39 (GEOMAR, month 36): Report on hindcasts conducted with satellite information
D 58 (GEOMAR, month 44): Report on the identifications of potential needs that are not captured by the present ocean observing system for enhancing decadal predictions.
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
CT3 Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Impact of Arctic initialization on forecast
skill
WP 3.2
NACLIM Core Theme 3:WP 3.2
Objectives• Establish the impact of Arctic data and ini-
tialization of the Arctic region on forecast skill
• Construct a 15 year combined SST/IST dataset for the Arctic Ocean
• Explore the potential to constrain the state of the Arctic Ocean by remote observations – flux monitoring system at the GSR.Methodology
• This WP address in detail the Arctic region of sparse data coverage. • Work is organized along three parallel tracks including
- ideal model experiments (data withholding, potential predictability)- improving data availability and - explore the use of remote transport measurements.
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
CT3 Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
NACLIM Core Theme 3:WP 3.2
Deliverables
D10 (DMI, month 12): Assessment of model build-up, storage and release of Arctic Ocean freshwater pools.
D27 (UHAM, month 24): Report on the documentation and description of improved model parameters.
D28 (DMI, month 24): Report on the documentation and description of the new Arctic Ocean dataset combining SST and IST.
D40 (DMI, month 36): Report on the establishment of impact of the Arctic region initialization, and on the sources of predictive skill from data withholding experiments.
D51 (DMI, month 44): Assessment of the value of the GSR flux monitoring time series for confining the initial state of the upper Arctic Ocean.
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
CT3 Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
NACLIM Core Theme 3:WP 3.2
Combined satellite SST and IST for the Arctic Ocean
• DMI is experienced with SST and Ice Surface Temperature data processing through Eumetsat (OSI-SAF), ESA (CCI) and EU (MyOcean) projects.
• Arctic SST reanalysis product (1985-present) will be available from end of the year (within other project)
• 15 years combined SST and Ice Surface Temperature data record will be developed within NACLIM, based upon AVHRR observations.
• Both Level 3 (with gaps) and level 4 (gap-free) fields will be produced.
• Special attention will be on error characterization and uncertainties
• Objective: to demonstrate the impact of improved data on the forecast skills.
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
CT3 Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
NACLIM Core Theme 3:WP 3.2
Combined satellite SST and IST for the Arctic Ocean
Level 3 example of Ice, Sea and Marginal Ice Zone – Surface Temperatures from METOP AVHRR
References:Tonboe, R. T., Dybkjær, G. and Høyer, J. L.Simulations of the snow covered sea ice surface temperature and microwave effective temperature, Tellus , 63A, 1028–1037, 2011
Høyer, J. L., Ioanna Karagali, Gorm Dybkjær, Rasmus Tonboe, Multi sensor validation and error characteristics of Arctic satellite sea surface temperature observations, Remote Sensing of Environment, Volume 121, June 2012, Pages 335-346, ISSN 0034-4257, 10.1016/j.rse.2012.01.013.
Dybkjær, G., Høyer, J., Tonboe, R., 2012. Arctic surface temperatures from Metop AVHRR compared to in situ ocean and land data. In press, Ocean Sci., 9, doi:10.5194/osd-9-1009-2012, 2012.
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
CT3 Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
NACLIM Core Theme 3:WP 3.2
Combined satellite SST and IST for the Arctic OceanLong term satellite datasets with uncertainties for model validation and assimilation: ice surface temperature and ice concentration
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
CT3 Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
NACLIM Core Theme 3:Open questions
Verify the list if people and expected level of involvement
Explore overlapping synergies with CT1
Decide on the level of internal coordination and WP specific meetings in addition to the annual meetings
- joint activities with CT1 on overarching themes may be more constructive scientifically.
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
End
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Forced response to GIS mass lossOutline
• Model experiment• Large scale ocean response to enhanced GIS mass loss
- present and future sensitivity• Impact on the Arctic and ocean freshwater anomalies
Conclusions- Strong anthropogenic warming (RCP8.5) result in a decoupling of the abyss and reduced impact of hosing.
- Ventilation in the Arctic Ocean may contribute a new source of dense water production aiding to maintain an ongoing overturning.
- Using the FWC as a diagnostic aid, that the Arctic Ocean response to hosing is partly masked by internal ocean variability and dominated by global warming effects.
- with contributions from Thor CT2 scientists
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Forced response to GIS mass lossEC-Earth
Experimental setup
Two parallel model experiments forced with 0.1 Sv additional runoff
Runoff is distributed equally around Greenland in two periods
1965-2005 (Historical)2050-2090 (RCP8.5)
RCP8.5 forcing used over the period 2006-2100
In Thor CT2, five models contributed: EC-Earth, MPI-ESM, HadCM3, IPSLCM5A-LR and BCM (Swingedouw et al. in prep).
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Forced response to GIS mass lossEC-Earth RCP8.5
AMOC26N 36N
45N 60N
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Forced response to GIS mass lossRCP8.5 vs histocical
AMOC – decade 4 20501965
Changes are confined to the main thermocline in the 2050/RCP8.5 experiment
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Forced response to GIS mass lossRCP8.5 vs historical
1965 2050
<- Control ->
<- Hosing->
MLD – decade 4
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Forced response to GIS mass lossRCP8.5 vs Historical
20501965
Annual maximum mixed layer depth
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Forced response to GIS mass lossRCP8.5 vs Historical
20501965
0-800m mean temperature
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Forced response to GIS mass lossRCP8.5 vs Historical
20501965
0-800m mean salinity
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Forced response to GIS mass lossFW content - preindustrial
de Steur et al. 2012 (in prep)
Preindustrial
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Forced response to GIS mass loss Historical to RCP8.5
Freshwater content relative to S=34.8
Arctic Ocean+Baffin Subpolar North Atlantic GIN Seas
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
8000 km3
Historical RCP8.5
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Forced response to GIS mass loss Preindustrial control climate
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Forced response to GIS mass loss Preindustrial control climate
The Arctic FW reservoir appears weakly constrainedDistributions may suggest two modes? - no significant atmospheric mode identified
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
FWC (103 km3)
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Forced response to GIS mass lossPreindustrial control climate
Difference in SLP between high and low anomalies in FWC changes
• Changes in FWC are driven by multi annual variations in AO• Results are consistent with the concept of a simple white noise integration
- AO defining the noise • If so, the autocorrelation of the FWC is practically unlimited and
predictable• but this was not what we wanted to establish…
No relation – no concern !
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Forced response to GIS mass lossEnd
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Forced response to GIS mass lossFWC anomaly
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Forced response to GIS mass lossAO (Morison et al. 2012)
Steffen M Olsen, Polar Oceanography, DMI, Copenhagen DK
Barcelona 6-8/10 2012
Forced response to GIS mass lossHistorical climate conditions
MO
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v)
Heat
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spor
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)
Outf
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ow (
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