step3: micro-simulation-based small area demographic forecasts for clark county stewart berry...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County
Stewart BerrySrinivasan SundaramHoward Slavin
Caliper Corporation2007
![Page 2: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Introduction
• This project entailed development
and application of STEP3- a disaggregate household microsimulation model
• STEP3 produces small area population forecasts for Clark County
• STEP3 can be used for planning, impact assessment and monitoring
![Page 3: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
STEP3 Framework
HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR(Simulates behavior for individual households and
persons)
Zone Data(Employment and Landuse
Data, Transportation and Accessibility)
POPULATION SYNTHESIS(Generates Household and Person databases that are
representative of the population)
POPULATION PROGRESSION(Progresses population through vital life events)
- Population Progression- Workforce Participation- Retirement status
Model Component
Model Flow
Input/Output File
Input/Output Flow
LANDUSE MODELING
- Employment Location- Housing Location
Zone Data: Demographic splits by Household
Size, Income, Age of Head of Household, etc.)
PUMS data: Individual Household Person Census Records
Synthetic Person File
Synthetic Household File
Lifestyle and Mobility Decisions
- Residential Location- Workplace Location
Synthetic Household FileSynthetic Person File
![Page 4: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Population Progression
![Page 5: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Aging, Mortality and Births
• Age by 1 year• Education of children is increased• Income and wages increase• Death rates are applied• Birth rates are applied
![Page 6: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Household Formation
• Kids Leave home at age 22
– Vehicles, employment & income are calculated
• Divorces happen– Income & vehicles are split; children are
assigned using custody probability
• Marriages happen– Single men are identified & potential
brides are searched for based on age
![Page 7: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Migration
• Regional in- and out- migration is
modeled using rates from IRS tax returns
• Intra-county migration is modeled using rates from the 2000 Census
![Page 8: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Labor Force Participation
• Worker status
– Determined by gender, age, race, marital status & children by age
• Retired status– If aged 65+, retirement status is
determined by gender, age & household structure
• Unemployed status– Determined using published Clark County
rates
![Page 9: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Land Use Modeling
![Page 10: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
External Inputs
• The user can add planned residential
and employment buildings:– Construction year– The number of owner/renter units– The number of jobs in 7 sectors:
• Hotel• Office• Industrial• Regional Retail• Community Retail• Neighborhood Retail• Other Non-Retail
![Page 11: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Post-2000 Development Layer
![Page 12: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Undevelopable Land Constraints
• Undevelopable land restricts growth:
– Military installations– Airports– Water bodies– Parks– Steep gradient – Constrained lands
![Page 13: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Residential Cell Growth
• The user can increase or decrease
settlement sprawl and density• A cell can be developed when it:
– Has developable land– Has 2 neighboring cells with 919 people in
each– Is not a group quarters cell
![Page 14: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Cell Characteristics Influencing Urban Growth
![Page 15: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Employment Seeds
• Non-retail employment grows using:
– Future land-use layer- Growth rates
• Retail employment grows using: – “Hot-spots” that identify areas where
there is high population but little retail
![Page 16: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Locational Choices
![Page 17: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Hotel/Gaming Industry Workers
• Choose work zone first• Employment preferences:
– CBD – Strip– High employment zones
• Residence preferences:– Income– Owner or renter status– Travel time to work– Number of units available
![Page 18: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
All Other Workers
• Choose residence zone first• Residence preferences:
– Income– Owner or renter status– Average travel time to work– Number of units available
• Employment preferences:– CBD – Strip– Closeness to home zone– Vehicle & transit travel times & costs
![Page 19: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Socio-economic Trends in Clark County
![Page 20: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Time-Series of Socio-Economic Data (1990-2005)
• High population growth• Trend of higher percentage of
workers• But population is still growing faster
than the employed• Migration is a major factor in growth
![Page 21: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Time Series of Migration
Time-Series of Socio-Economic Data
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Year
Per
son
s
Inmigration
Outmigration
![Page 22: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Previous Population Projections & Estimates
• Five sets of projections and
estimates– Caliper Tract Estimates– IRS tax returns (highest)– State Demographer– REMI– RTC-SNWA-CCCP-CBER (highest)
• Overall trends are consistent• STEP3
– Scenarios model these upper and lower bounds
![Page 23: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Population Projections and Estimates
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Year
Popu
lation
Caliper Tract Estimates
Comp. Plan
State Demographer
IRS
REMI
![Page 24: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Development of the Spatial Database for Analysis
• 1km grid cells• The land use types are:
– Hotel– Office– Industrial– Regional Retail– Community Retail– Other Retail– Other Non-Retail– Renter Occupied– Owner Occupied
![Page 25: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Model Structure
Input Data Model Database
Census aggregate andPUMS data: Individual
Household & Person Census Records
Zone Data: Demographic splits by Household Size, Income, Age of Head of Household; Employment and Land Use Data; Employment & Housing Location; etc.
County Business Patterns Employment File
Synthetic Person File
Synthetic Household File
GIS Overlays: Slope/gradient, physical features, human
landmarks
Data Integration in TransCAD
![Page 26: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Census Data
Aggregate Zonal Disaggregate Household Disaggregate PersonPopulation Number of people in
householdRelationship to householder
Dwelling Units Place of residence GenderOccupied Housing Units by Tenure
Number of automobiles Race
Median Rent Household income AgeMedian Owner Costs Rent or own EthnicityAggregate Household Income 1999
Group Quarters Type of Education
Occupied Housing Units by Tenure by Car Ownership
Years of schooling
Household Income Employment status
Occupied Housing Units by Tenure by Householder Age
Hours worked last week
Occupied Housing Units by Household Size
Place of work
Group Quarters Industry
Total person's income
Wages or salary
Nonfarm self-employment
Subfamily Relationship
Marital Status
![Page 27: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Las Vegas Valley Landmarks
![Page 28: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
2004 Las Vegas Landuse Types, Gradients & Undevelopable Land
![Page 29: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Road Network (2000-2005)
![Page 30: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Forecast Results
![Page 31: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Results Overview
• Four STEP3 scenarios – High growth with extensive urban dispersion – High growth with constrained urban
dispersion – Lower growth with extensive urban dispersion – Lower growth with constrained dispersion
• The upper bound forecasts exceed the CCCP population forecast
• The lower bound trends are more inline with REMI and the State Demographer
![Page 32: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Population Projections
Population Projections
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
Comp. Plan
State Demographer
REMI
Caliper LBF
Caliper UBF
![Page 33: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Upper Bound Forecasts
• Increases in:
– Population– Households– Movers and immigrants– Workers, retirees and non-workers, while
unemployment stabilizes at about 4%
• Constrained scenario growth: – Moapa– Goodsprings (east & south)– Searchlight & CAL-NEV-ARI– Primm-Roach-Borax corridor– Boulder City (south)– Las Vegas (north, south-east, south-west,
west)
![Page 34: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Upper Bound Workers
Workers
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
Year
To
tal
Hotel
Office
Industrial
Regional Retail
Community Retail
Neighborhood Retail
Other Non-Retail
![Page 35: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
New Populated Cells 2000-2025 (upper bound; black are post-2000)
![Page 36: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
New Populated Cells 2000-2025 (upper bound dispersion; black are post-2000)
![Page 37: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Lower Bound Forecasts
• Increases in:
– Population– Households– Movers and immigrants– Workers, retirees and non-workers, while
unemployment stabilizes at about 4%
• Constrained scenario growth: – Moapa– Goodsprings (east)– Searchlight– Primm-Roach-Borax corridor– Boulder City (south)– Las Vegas (north, south-east, south-west,
west)
![Page 38: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Lower Bound Workers
Workers
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
Year
To
tal
Hotel
Office
Industrial
Regional Retail
Community Retail
Neighborhood Retail
Other Non-Retail
![Page 39: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
New Populated Cells 2000-2025 (lower bound; black are post-2000)
![Page 40: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
New Populated Cells 2000-2025 (lower bound dispersion; black are post-2000)
![Page 41: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Model Interface
![Page 42: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Description of Model Stages
• Stage 1: Population Synthesis • Stage 2: Zone and Network Processing• Stage 3: Population Progression• Stage 4: Landuse Modeling• Stage 5: Residential Location• Stage 6: Work Location• All Stages: Feedback Loop
![Page 43: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Description of Default Scenarios
• Scenario 1: Upper Bound Population
Forecast with Constrained Cell Growth• Scenario 2: Lower Bound Population
Forecast with Constrained Cell Growth• Scenario 3: Upper Bound Population
Forecast with Unconstrained Cell Growth• Scenario 4: Lower Bound Population
Forecast with Unconstrained Cell Growth
![Page 44: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Time Series Visualization Tool
• Once STEP3 has been run, the zonal
output can be displayed as a time series:
![Page 45: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Future Land-use Database Editing Tool
• The geography of the future land use
layer can be modified:
![Page 46: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Land Use Evolution
![Page 47: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Case StudyImplications for HAZMAT Exposure
![Page 48: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Discussion
• Yucca Mountain Repository for
radioactive waste• Proximity to Clark County of the
facility and transportation routes• STEP3 is used to explore the
projected population that could be exposed
![Page 49: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Proposed Nuclear Waste Routes
![Page 50: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Projected Population Exposure
• 800 meter (½ mile) buffer• Higher population along the highway
than the rail line• More people exposed in the
dispersion scenarios at the beginning, but are less than the constrained towards 2025
![Page 51: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Exposed Population Along Highway Corridor (Clark County)
Exposed Population Along Highway Corridor
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
Year
Po
pu
lati
on LBF Hywy
LBF Disperse Hywy
UBF Hywy
UBF Disperse Hywy
![Page 52: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Exposed Population Along Rail Corridor (Clark County)
Exposed Population Along Rail Corridor
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
Year
Po
pu
lati
on LBF Rail
LBF Disperse Rail
UBF Rail
UBF Disperse Rail
![Page 53: STEP3: Micro-simulation-Based Small Area Demographic Forecasts for Clark County Stewart Berry Srinivasan Sundaram Howard Slavin Caliper Corporation 2007](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649eca5503460f94bd82c2/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Conclusion
• The settled area has grown
enormously and continued sprawl is expected
• Even though predictions are uncertain, planning is aided by forecasts that predict where people live and work
• Household microsimulation, with all its limitations, can be a practical tool for demographic and land use forecasting