stephen o'rourke | pv status and pathways

Deutsche Bank Securities

Stephen O‘Rourke (212) 250-8670

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Solar Photovolatic IndustryInstitute for Analysis of Solar Energy – 24 April 2009

Solar Impulse HB-SIA prototype airplane© Solar Impulse/EPFL Claudio Leonardi

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Gri

d c

ost

, so

lar

PV

pri

ce,

($/k

Wh)

c-Si (ave) c-Si (hi/lo) c-Si (hi CE)a-Si (um) CIGS CdTeSupply Demand


New technology could accelerate solar PV cost reduction

Solar PV industry – long-term outlook

Broad cost convergence over the next 6 plus years

c-Si

CIGS

-Si (2x)

CdTe

6%

5%

4%US - Average price of electricity in 2009 est:

9.5 cents/kWh

Electricity from solar PV is becoming

cheaper…

…and grid costs are rising

Grid cost convergence

Periodic over-supply is inevitable

Potential for explosive growth in demand upon convergence

New technology wildcard

“Grid parity” is a conditional number; no single number is adequate

No technical breakthroughs are required to achieve solar PV cost reduction curve(s)

Oversupply is inevitable and will be acute over the near term (credit driven)

Supply

Demand

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates


Economics by technology(what companies can do…)


Source: Deutsche Bank Solar PV value chain for c-Si and thin film technologies

Thin film approaches

c-Si approaches

PV Cells PV Modules

Wafers PV CellsPolysilicon PV ModulesSiH4/TCS

Manufacturing Equipment

Three points in the value chain warrant the most careful consideration

Ancillary Equip

Distribution Installation

Distribution Installation

Energy

Energy

1. Manufacturing $/Wp at the module level

2. System level (price) $/Wp

3. LCOE ($/kWh)

• Improving CE• Declining Si pricing• Declining ASPs• Compressing margins• Scale effects• Variance error OK

Company cost structures at key points in the value chain have enormous implications on LCoE and business models

Assessing the Value Chain

• Significant “low tech” potential

• A select few are actively opening mkt segments

• Scale effects emerging• Maturing segment

• Variance error is high• Limited credit• Increasing cost of capital• ASP support mechanisms

• Variance error good• Growing database• Technology dev’t• Maturing segment

• Increasing cost of capital

• ASP support mechanisms


Cost comparisons along the value chain


Module $/Wp by technology System $/Wp by technology (1MWp system) LCOE ($/kWh) (1MWp system, 5kW/m2/d)

CdTe is a disruptive technology and will maintain a large module $/Wp advantage over c-Si at the module level. CIGS has the potential to challenge over the long term.

c-Si’s apparently large learning curve is more a result of substantial polysilicon cost reduction.

Fully installed system price ($/Wp) for fixed tilt systems.

There is substantial sensitivity to numerous variables (e.g. BOS costs (ex. inverter), margin structures, business models). The greatest variance error in any analysis resides here.

At the LCoE CdTe has a distinct advantage over c-Si; CIGS has the potential to challenge over the long term.

Margin structures are critical to assess the true competitiveness of technologies (and companies).

c-Si (ave)

c-Si (high CE)

c-Si (hi/lo)

a-Si (mm)

CIGS

CdTe


There are leaders, but no definitive winner at the LCOE level

Comparative advantages – LCOE (with respect to c-Si)Module $/Wp wrt c-Si System $/Wp wrt c-Si (1MWp system) LCOE ($/kWh) wrt c-Si (1MWp sys, 5kW/m2/d)

CdTe has and should maintain a >40% module $/Wp advantage over ave CE c-Si at the module level.

The near-term % increase in $/Wp by thin film competitors is due to a substantial polysilicon cost reduction.

CdTe module $/Wp advantage declines to ~8% to ~12% over ave CE c-Si at the system level.

High CE c-Si and a-Si (UM) lag, and low cost/ higher than ave CE c-Si can offer better system level costs.

CdTe is the LCoE leader for a fixed tilt installation (~10% to 12% lower than ave CE c-Si), and should remain so with substantial margin latitude.

CIGS has great potential

High CE c-Si will struggle with a fixed plate configuration.

c-Si (hi/lo)

c-Si (ave)

c-Si (high CE)

a-Si (mm)

CIGS

CdTe

c-Si (hi/low)



The LCoE Gap (c-Si)

$0.00

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.35

$0.40

Le

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f E

lec

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ity

(L

Co

E)

– U

S$

/kW

hr

Installed cost/Wp – US$/Wp

$3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 $6.00 $6.50 $7.00$1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00

$0.05

Solar PV LCoE (1MWp x-Si system)(Santa Maria, CA – 1.573kWhr/Wp fixed mount, 6% interest rate)

Comb Cycle Nat GasLCoE of

$0.073 to $0.121/kWhr

Gas Peaking PowerLCoE of

$0.221 to $0.352/kWhr

~$5.50/Wp(Ave today)

No incentives

w/ 30% grant/ITC

w/ accelerated depreciation

Wind GenerationLCoE of

$0.044 to $0.091/kWhr

Industrial(2008): 7.02¢/kWhr

2008 average retail price: 9.81¢/kWhr

State Incentive plan~$1.00/Wp installed

Residential (2008): 11.35¢/kWhr

$0.25

$0.30

Source: PG&E, EIA, SunPower 2008 analysts day presentation, and Deutsche Bank estimates

Santa Maria, CA


The LCoE gap (c-Si)

$0.00

$0.10

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$0.40

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(L

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– U

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/kW

hr


$3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 $6.00 $6.50 $7.00$1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00

$0.05

Solar PV LCoE (1MWp x-Si system)(Newark, NJ – 1.183kWhr/Wp fixed mount, 6% interest rate)

Comb Cycle Nat GasLCoE of

$0.073 to $0.121/kWhr

Gas Peaking PowerLCoE of

$0.221 to $0.352/kWhr

No incentives

w/ 30% grant/ITC

w/ accel depreciation

Wind GenerationLCoE of

$0.044 to $0.091/kWhr

2008 average retail price: 9.81¢/kWhr

Residential (2008): 11.35¢/kWhr

Industrial(2008): 7.02¢/kWhr

w/ 30% grant/ITC

w/ accel depreciation

No incentiv

es

Newark, NJ

Source: EIA, SunPower 2008 analysts day presentation, and Deutsche Bank estimates

Solar PV generated electricity is much more expensive in NJ. However, NJ’s SREC program allows the sale of related carbon credits at ~$0.40 to $0.71/kWhr, offering an attractive market.

Comparing production solutions (fixed tilt)

$0.06

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$0.12

$0.14

$0.16

$0.18

$0.20

$0.22

$3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 $6.00 $6.50 $7.00

Le

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(L

Co

E)

– U

S$

/kW

hr


$0.08

Wp

$4.75/Wp Installed

Output over a day

noon

Wp

Time (hrs, one day)

LCoE = Total costs of system

Total kWhr generated=

$

kWhr

Area under curve = kWhr


Installed cost/Wp plus financing costs

Maintenance/upkeep costs

Land/roof lease costs

ITC tax benefit included in this analysis

Total system costs include:

Location of the system installation

Solar irradiance at the location

System config. (tilted, fixed, tracking, etc.)

Technology attributes

Total kWhr generated incorporates:

Fixed mount CdTe$4.50/Wp Installed

$4.00/Wp installed

Fixed mount ave efficiency c-Si$5.50/Wp Installed

CdTe (direct bandgap) yields higher output

Fixed m

ountComparing 1MWp scale systems (6% interest rate)

c-Si installed price $5.50 (>$3/Wp module)

CdTe installed price $4.50 (~$2/Wp module)

c-Si installed price $4.75 (<$2.50/Wp module)

CdTe installed price $4.00 (<$1.80/Wp module)

Recent system prices

Future comparison system prices


Comparing production solutions (1-axis tracking)

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(L

Co

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– U

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/kW

hr


$0.08

Hi CE, 1-axis track

$6.00/Wp Installedw/ 1x track

LCoE = Total costs of system

Total kWhr generated=

$

kWhr


1-axis tracking system costs include:

Wp

Output over a day

noon

Wp

Time (hrs, one day)

Area under curve = kWhr

$3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 $6.00 $6.50 $7.00

Higher installed cost/Wp (tracker cost)

Higher maintenance costs

More land used

Hi CE, 1-axis $5.00/Wp Installed

Comparing 1MWp systems (6% interest rate)

1-axis tracking

Fixed m

ount

High efficiency (Hi CE) modules better leverage cost on 1-axis trackers, leading to lower LCoE relative to standard efficiency modules.

Total kWhr generated incorporates:

Higher energy output offsets

Higher efficiency better exploits energy/cost benefit

Hi CE c-Si installed price $6.00 (>$3.25/Wp module)

Trackers from potentially <$0.40/Wp (fully integrated mfg) to >$1.00/Wp

Hi CE c-Si installed price $5.00 (<$2.75/Wp module)

Recent system prices

Future comparison system prices


Comparing production solutions (optimized c-Si mfg)

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(L

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– U

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/kW

hr


$0.06


$3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 $6.00 $6.50 $7.00$1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00

$0.08

$0.04

Comparing 1MWp scale systems (6% interest rate)

Wind GenerationLCoE estimated at $0.044 to $0.091/kWhr

Comb Cycle Nat GasLCoE estimated at $0.073 to $0.121/kWhr

Gas Peaking powerLCoE estimated at $0.221 to $0.352/kWhr

0.84 0.70 0.56 0.42 0.28 -

1

2

3

4

5

6

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

Case I Case II Case III Case IV Case V

Co

st, M

arg

in, &

AS

P ($

/Wp

)

China low cost exampleDeclining c-Si cost progression

$3.46

$3.88

$4.25

$4.73

$5.19

Installed $/Wp

P-Si costs from $120/kg (case I) to $40/kg (Case V), using 7g/Wp

P-Siwafering

Cell, Module

Module GM 17%

B/S cost

Inverter cost

Install GM 12%

Labor & Misc.

Case V (low c-Si cost)Total installed price of $3.46/Wp


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0.25

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%

Gross Margins (%)

LC

oE

($

/Wp

)

CdTeHi CE c-SiAve CE c-SiHi CE c-Si 1x trackingAve CE c-Si 1x tracking


Quantifying competitive advantagesKey competitive metric: operating structure

For a given LCoE, a CdTe system can support a GM of ~30% versus ~17% for c-Si.

High CE c-Si on 1x tracking can compete with CdTe, with a GM of at least several points lower.

Points to potential market segmentation

As competition becomes more margin based, “EMS-like” GMs could make it difficult for technology centric companies (i.e. business models could be reset).

Installation type

Area constrained

Residential

Fixed mount (not area constrained)

Large scale

Most applicable technologies

high CE

Ave CE c-Si

Ave CE c-Si / CdTe

CdTe / high CE c-Si 1x tracker

A more aggressive, staged transition to IPP business models.



Supply and Demand(what an industry does…)


Large markets

Next growth markets

Hopeful growth markets

Nearterm laggards

Demand - (ROI) based demand growth by Region

Toward a regional demand model

We built a demand model with regional ROI’s as primary demand growth determining metrics.

The quantification of exogenous effects must be estimated when known.

Incentives will continue to be key demand drivers over the next several years.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

RO

I

Germany - Ground

Germany - Roof

Spain

Italy - Ground

Italy - Roof

South Korea

France - Mainland

France - Overseas

Greece - Mainland

Greece - Islands

Japan

U.S.A

Source: Deutsche Bank

Regional ROI impact of a 1% cost of capital increase

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2007E 2008E 2009E 2010EGermany - Ground baseline Germany - Ground (1% CoC rise)Spain baseline Spain (1% CoC rise)Italy - Roof baseline Italy - Roof (1% CoC rise)U.S.A baseline U.S.A (1% CoC rise)

Installed system ASP decline required to maintain ROI

6.0%

6.2%

6.4%

6.6%

6.8%

7.0%

7.2%

7.4%

7.6%

7.8%

2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E

Germany - GroundSpainItaly - RoofU.S.A

Provided there is capital…Source: Deutsche Bank estimates


-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

So

lar

PV

ou

tpu

t (M

Wp

/yr)


Supply vs Demand

Solar PV supply & demand forecast

Solar PV industry CAGR

(5% increments from 30% to 60%)

Supply Base case

Supply Upside

Supply Downside

Forecast

Demand Upside

Demand Downside

40%

30%

35%

55%Module output (CAGR) 45%


8.85.6 Sales downside case12.57.2 Sales upside case

10.96.25.5 Sales base case201020092008

Total module supply (GWp)

* “Sales” is adjusted for FGI, etc. at year-end

c-Si module supply (GWp)

8.24.74.7 Sales

9.75.55.2 Production

201020092008

2.71.60.8 Sales

3.11.80.9 Production

201020092008

Thin film module supply (GWp)


-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

MW

p

ChinaOther WorldOther EuropeGreeceS. KoreaFranceJapanItalyUSSpainGermany

Module demand (MWp installed)

Demand Base Case


5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mo

du

le G

M (

%)

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mo

du

le G

M (

%)


Dynamics of an industry shake-out – actuals vs projections

Anticipated over-supply dynamic emerged two+ quarters ahead of prior expectations due to: The emergence of acute credit restrictions

Spain’s 500MWp annual cap for 2009 and beyond enacted in late 2008

Un-checked capacity build-out over past two years

Effects are matriculating up and down the value chain with varying degrees of severity.

We had forecasted periodic resets in Module ASP in response to shifts in supply and demand – the present credit crisis pulled in the first reset substantially.

Margins are narrowing as oversupply drives price competition.


Comparing our May ‘08 forecast to actual module pricing trends

General margin structures will decline for much of the upstream portion of the value chain.

Hypothetical ASP reset

May 08 f’cast

Forecast

Module ASP could reset iteratively as production

hits market; periodicity is difficult to predict.

Module cost (May-08 f'cast)

Module price (ASP) May-08 f'cast

Reality

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0.25

0.30

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

LC

oE

($/

kWh

r)


Translating industry dynamics to LCOE

$0.089/kWhr(ave retail electricity prices - US)

Notes (EIA data, 2006):

1. EIA data latest available (released Oct-07)

2. Residential $0.104/kWhr, commercial $0.092/kWhr, and industrial $0.012/kWhr

4% CAGR

5% CAGR

6% CAGR

7% CAGR

Convergence projectionPulled in by about a year

Actual solar PV LCoE trended differently from our original projections due to: An appreciating Euro, and strong Spanish subsidies and growth drove installed system prices higher.

The emergence of acute credit restrictions led to module over-supply and rapid ASP declines.

While the near-term trajectory toward grid convergence has accelerated, the longer term trajectory has pulled in by roughly a year to a year and a half.

c-Si module systems

DB LCOE projection (c-Si) (May-08)

Euro driven inflation caseAn appreciating Euro and Spanish subsidies led to rising installed prices for solar PV systems

ASP/margin resetOver-supply and weakening Euro

Extreme ASP/margin reset

Forecast



Business models and markets(measuring strategic acumen…)


Considering business models over the long term

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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d p

ric

e, S

ola

r P

V c

os

t ($

/kW

h)

-

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

c-Si (ave) c-Si (hi/lo)c-Si (hi CE) CdTea-Si (um) CIGSCore Energy

Larger scale commercial grid

price convergence

1MWp commercial installation (5kW/m2/day solar irradiance)

Grid

CA

GR

4%

5%

7%

6%

Average grid retail electricity price

Probable industry shakeout

Core business margin

structure, ROI profile

Energy business

margin structure, ROI

profile

Selling energy on a commercial scale may offer the best long term returns

Selling energy on a commercial scale

Manufacturing and selling silicon when the shortage returns

Why continue to make cells/modules, an inevitable commodity?

If a company has a technology advantage that enables the lowest LCOE with which to compete for energy contracts


The most profitable places – the ends of the value chain

Industry shake out


Solar PV – a means of translation(measuring an industry’s health and maturity)


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Grid partiy

reached

Solar PV industry outlook – a translationSource: DB estimates

Initial financing boom is over

Public – silicon technology based financing market capitalization and liquidity become adequate for many investors

Private – transition from silicon to thin films and next generation materials (technology windows opening/closing)

Initial production ramp:

Emergence of many companies

Rationalization:

Corporate Finance

Stock performance

Initial growth phase Build-out of an industry MaturityShake-out

Shake-out and consolidation

Some casualties of shake-out

expected

Normalized anticipated corporate finance

activity

Normalized anticipated stock performance

Foundations for a new industry:

Commercial scale production ramp by a rationalized supplier base – corporate finance activity to support

A maturing industry:

Classic cyclical growth phase – industry leaders become self financing, followed by corporate financing activity

Oversupply is driving a shakeout: corporate finance activity has declined and will likely shift to M&A

Some companies will not survive; longer-term industry leaders will emerge

Average grid parity reached huge production ramp ensues corporate finance to fund expansion

Industry reaches cyclical growth phase self-financing will drive larger portion of subsequent expansion



Thank you

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Steve O'Rourke

None

Deutsche Bank

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38 %

58 %

04 %37 % 28 %

30 %0

50100150200250300350400

Buy Hold Sell

North American Universe

Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship

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stephen o'rourke | pv status and pathways

Technology

ave ce csi

lcoe gap csi

wp wrt csi system

kwh wrt csi

solar pv lcoe

great potential high

lcoe cdte

mwp system lcoe