stepping away from trend analyses for regional integrated planning and modelling
DESCRIPTION
A presentation by SMART Infrastructure Facility Research Director Dr Pascal Perez to the International Symposium For Next Generation Infrastructure, Vienna, 30 September - 1 October 2014.TRANSCRIPT
Stepping Away From Trend
Analyses For Regional
Integrated Planning and
Modelling
Pascal PerezResearch Director
September 2014
From SID to Vision Illawarra
SMART Infrastructure Dashboard• Electricity (2007-2013)
• Water (2007-2013)*
• Sewage (2007-2013)*
• Solid Waste (2007-2013)**
*: SCC excluded ; **: KMC & SCC excluded
Vision Illawarra• Land Use Changes
• Economic Changes
• Traffic Patterns
• Consumption Patterns
Departing from Trend-Based Forecasting
Trend-based Forecasting• Feed-forward process
• Easy to implement
• Prone to drifting
• Sensitive to initial assumption
Integrated Modelling• Iterative process
• Complex calibration
• Self-correcting ability
• Sensitive to internal rules
Addressing Complex Planning Issues
Unanderra
Albion Park
Dapto
Too many interactions and feedback loops for a trend-based analysis
GEONAMICA Modular Framework
Utility module will use data from SID for design and calibration
UTILITY(tba)
LAND USE(METRONAMICA)
TRANSPORT(4-STEP)
DEMOGRAPHIC(SYNT POP)
ECONOMIC(IO-EC)
GEONAMICA (RIKS, NL)
NEW module
Developed in collaboration
with RIKS
Preliminary Scenario Exploration(land use & transportation only)
Base Scenario (2012 – 2022)
Animated land use change
Base Scenario (2012 – 2022)
Selected land use classes – closer look
Base Scenario (2012 – 2022)
Max Road Network Congestion
Calibration and Validation Methods
aggregation
Vector to raster (100m)
2006 land use map
Model updates the map every time step (1 year)
Calibration (2006 – 2012)
Land Use Model
2012 simulate land use
Very high res. Satellite images 2012
Calibration (2006 – 2012)
Land Use Model
Feature extraction
Urban Residential & Industrial/Commercial Land Uses 2012
2012 simulate land use
Calibration (2006 – 2012)
Land Use Model
Observed Urban Residential & Industrial/Commercial Land Uses 2012
Compare per class
Calibration (2006 – 2012)
Transportation Model
Starting point: O-D Matrix 2006 generated using HTS dataDimensions
- 175 Travel zones (175x175)- 5 time periods of the day- 2 modes (car, public transport)- 4 purposes (home, work, social, shopping)
Run the model and simulate the OD matrix for 2012
Compare simulated outputs with HTS 2012 aggregate data (LGA level)
Calibration & Validation Results
Calibration - ResultsLand Use Model
Simulated vs Observed – Urban Residential 2012
Model
Observed
Urban Residential 13579 673 801
Industrial/Commercial 213 3751 1357
Other 1438 516 178160
Urban Residential Industrial/Commercial Other
Calibration - ResultsTransportation Model
OBSERVED - 2012 MODEL - 2012 MODE = Car
Trips D
O Kiama Shellharbour Shoalhaven Wollongong
Kiama 36369 11833 4059 4919
Shellharbour 10322 132140 1625 51671
Shoalhaven 3335 827 303351 5018
Wollongong 7261 52781 5108 565712
OBSERVED - 2012 MODEL - 2012 MODE = Public Transport
Trips D
O Kiama Shellharbour Shoalhaven Wollongong
Kiama 1417 484 345 503
Shellharbour 724 2742 2287
Shoalhaven 345 8323 218
Wollongong 345 1425 218 29028
MODE = Car
Trips D
O Kiama Shellharbour Shoalhaven Wollongong
Kiama 24866 17786 7876 10307
Shellharbour 16637 94960 6701 60894
Shoalhaven 12015 4909 247010 3091
Wollongong 10679 64449 6121 435528
MODE = Public Transport
Trips D
O Kiama Shellharbour Shoalhaven Wollongong
Kiama 963 710 91 386
Shellharbour 767 7282 159 4563
Shoalhaven 152 133 3458 205
Wollongong 421 4329 276 32747
Face Validation - ResultsTransportation Model
Weekday morning peak traffic - Google Weekday morning peak traffic - Model
Network speed
Current limitations and ongoing work
Current Limitations
2 (ideally 3) complete land use maps at 3 time points (with sufficient gap)
Sufficient details – high, medium, low density residential- separate industrial, commercial classes
Zoning data & expert interpretation
HTS data for same time points – OD down to TZ (SA1 ideally)
Disaggregation of PT into buses and trains
More time for calibration (and validation)
Ongoing work
Fitting the land use and transportation models with detailed data
Detailed calibration and validation
Coding up and integrating econometric I/O model
Conceptual model development for the utility module
Pascal PerezResearch DirectorSMART Infrastructure Facility+61 2 4252 [email protected]