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- 1 - Friday, 24th June, 2011

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Balkrishna Industries Ltd. CMP Rs 145.1 PE 4.7x FY2013E BUY

PRICE TARGET Rs 216/- (18 Months) Index Details Sensex 18,240 Nifty 5,471 BSE 500 7,061

Industry Auto Tires &

Rubber Products

Scrip Details

Mkt Cap (Rs in crore) 1,402.0 Book Value (Rs) 89.0 Eq Shares O/s (Cr) 9.7 Avg Vol (Lacs) 0.2 52 Week H/L 171/109 Dividend Yield (%) 1.0 Face Value (Rs) 2.0 BSE Code 502355 NSE Code BALKRISIND

Shareholding Pattern (31st Mar, 2011)

Shareholders % holding Promoters 54.4 Indian Institutions 14.8 FII’s 15.5 Non Promoter Corporate 2.4 Public 12.9 Total 100.0

BKT vs. Sensex

Capacity expansion to cater the global demand

Buoyed by the strong global demand for OTH products, the company is in the process of expanding its existing capacity from 1,60,000 MT in FY11 to 3,07,000 by end of FY13. The expansion is expected to come up in two phases – brownfield (27,000 MT) at Chopanki, Rajasthan and greenfield expansion (1,20,000 MT) at Bhuj, Gujarat with a capital outlay of Rs 1,400 crore and should be operational by Q3FY13. On back of the expanded capacities and expected improvement in realizations we forecast revenues to grow at a CAGR of 24.5 % to Rs 3,411.4 crore over the period FY11-13.

Significant strategic kickers augur well for future growth BKTs competitive pricing, low cost manufacturing and niche presence in the OTH segment are the key drivers for its future growth. Further foray into newer markets, deepening penetration in existing geographies and launch of new products, particularly agri radial tires, should help boost market share from the current 3.5% to ~5% in the medium term. Aided by volume growth and aforementioned factors we expect earnings to grow at CAGR of 23.9% over the period FY11-13. Margins near trough and set to expand We believe that EBITDA margins which have been under pressure are near lows and should bottom out in the medium term as NR (32% of RM cost) prices are expected to correct in the medium term (CY13) on back of improved supply. Meanwhile better product mix and higher realizations are expected to provide additional cushion to the margins in the short term. We forecast one more year of margin compression to 15.9% in FY12 before the cycle troughs. We expect the company to post EBITDA margin of 18.6% in FY13 (+150 bps from 17.1% in FY11). Valuation We initiate coverage on Balkrishna Industries Limited (BKT) as a BUY with a price objective of Rs 216 (target PE of 7x) over a period of 18-24 months. At the CMP of 145.1 the stock is trading at 6.2x / 4.7x its estimated earnings for FY12/FY13 representing a potential upside of 49.3%.

We initiate coverage on Balkrishna Industries Limited (BKT) as a BUY with a price objective of Rs 216 (target PE of 7x) over a period of 18-24 months. At the CMP of 145.1 the stock is trading at 6.2x / 4.7x its estimated earnings for FY12/FY13 representing a potential upside of 49.3%. Buoyed by the absence of competition, low manufacturing cost, competitive pricing and a wide array of SKUs, BKT with 3.5% global market share has emerged as a significant player in the OHT segment. Riding on enhanced capacities we expect revenues to grow at a 2 year CAGR of 24.5%. In our view rubber prices are near to peak and are expected to correct in the medium which should lead to improved profitability. We expect earnings growth of 23.9% over the next 2 years.

Key Financials (Rs in Cr)

Y/E Mar (Rs Crore)

Net Revenue

EBITDA

PAT

EPS

EPS Growth (%)

RONW (%)

ROCE (%)

P/E (X) EV/ EBITDA(X)

2010 1574.5 398.0 222.2 23.0 - 32.6 27.1 6.3 5.1

2011E 2201.7 377.1 194.6 20.1 -12.4 22.6 19.5 7.2 5.3

2012E 2842.1 452.4 225.6 23.3 15.9 21.1 14.7 6.2 4.4

2013E 3411.4 635.1 299.1 30.9 32.6 22.1 16.9 4.7 3.2

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Company Background Balkrishna Industries Ltd., a Siyaram Poddar group company, is engaged in the production of a range of Off-Highway Tires (OHT) catering to various segments viz. agricultural, industrial, material handling, forestry, lawn and garden, construction and earth moving tires. The company generates 90% of its revenues from exports and has a ~3.5% global market share in the OTH segment. In the domestic market, the company supplies to all the major construction equipment manufacturers and has a presence in the replacement market for of the road construction sector. Key Investment highlights

Capacity expansion to cater the global demand

Buoyed by the strong global demand for OTH products, the company is in the process of expanding its existing capacity from 1,60,000 MT in FY11 to 3,07,000 by end of FY13. The expansion is expected to come up in two phases – brownfield (27,000 MT) at Chopanki, Rajasthan and greenfield expansion (1,20,000 MT) at Bhuj, Gujarat with a capital outlay of Rs 1,400 crore and should be operational by Q3FY13. On back of the expanded capacities and expected improvement in realizations we forecast revenues to grow at a CAGR of 24.5 % to Rs 3,411.4 crore over the period FY11-13.

Capacity expansion augurs well for future growth

Capacity in MTPA 2010 2011 2012E 2013E

Exiting Plants 160,000

160,000

187,000

187,000

Waluj, Maharashtra 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000

Chopanki, Rajasthan 60,000 60,000 87,000 87,000

Bhiwadi, Rajasthan 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000

New Plant - - - 120,000

Bhuj, Gujarat - - - 1,20,000

Total installed Capacity 1,60,000 160,000 187,000 3,07,000

Achievable Capacity @75% 1,20,000 1,20,000 1,40,250 2,30,250

Revenues to grow on the back of expanded capacities

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Source :BKT, Ventura

Capex for expansion Particulars in Rs Crore

Brownfield Expansion

Greenfield Expansion

FY11 130 100

FY12E 70 700

FY13E - 400

Total Capex 200 1,200 Source :BKT, Ventura

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Phase 1 Brownfield expansion

As existing facilities are working at optimum utilization, the company is undertaking upgradation and debottlenecking activities to enhance production of existing plants. These initiatives would result in an increase in the capacity of radial tires for the agricultural segment. (Radial tires enjoy a 10-15% premium in terms of realizations over the conventional tires). Post implementation of these initiatives (to be completed by Q2FY12), we expect existing facilities to contribute Rs 2,623.3 crore and Rs 2,872.5 crore in FY12 and FY13 towards topline.

Out of the total estimated capex of Rs 200 crore, Rs 50 crore accounts for upgradation while the balance amount is to be incurred for developing infrastructure to support the expansion. As of FY11, the company has incurred a sum of Rs 130 crore on this expansion, while balance Rs 70 crore will be spent over the next couple of quarters.

Phase 2 Greenfield expansion

Besides the brownfield expansion, the company is also in the process of setting up a new 1,20,000 MT facility in Bhuj, Gujarat. The Rs 1,200 crore expansion will be funded through $175 mn (~800 crore) worth of ECB with the balance coming from internal accruals. Although the plant is expected to be commissioned by end of Q3FY13, we expect the major upside from this facility to be witnessed only post FY13 (as it takes 15-18 months to optimize the production from a new facility). For FY13 we have modeled Rs 298.3 crore of revenue generation from this facility assuming 22.5 % of capacity utilization.

Production efficiency set to improve

Due to high variety, low volume and customized nature of OTH business, achievable production remains at the level of 70-75%. Another factor which also caps the production limit to 75% is the layout of existing plants. Since they were transformed to OTH units from conventional tyre units, utilization rates remain low due to compatibility issues. As the new unit coming up in Bhuj is fully compatible with production of OTH products, the utilizations rates at the Bhuj facility should be far higher than the historic 70 - 75% and should improve the overall utilization levels in the future.

Installed capacity and utilization trends

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Installed Capacity (LHS) Production (LHS)

Utilisation rate% (RHS)


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Significant strategic kickers augur well for future growth

BKTs competitive pricing, low cost manufacturing and niche presence in the OTH segment are the key drivers for its future growth. Further foray into newer markets, deepening penetration in existing geographies and launch of new products, particularly agri radial tires, should help boost market share from the current 3.5% to ~5% in the medium term. Aided by volume growth and aforementioned factors we expect earnings to grow at CAGR of 23.9% over the period FY11-13.

Low cost of manufacturing

Owing to the labour intensive and commoditized nature of tyre manufacturing, its profitability is defined by availability of cheap labour with adequate supply of raw material. Augmented by ample amount of rubber resources (India being the 4

th largest rubber producer) and cheap labour,

India is emerging as a preferred destination for setting up new tyre manufacturing units for global MNC’s.

Output of major Natural rubber growing countries

Source :ANRPC

BKT’s operations being based in India, helps it significantly leverage the low cost of labour (i.e. 5% as compared to 20-25% global peers) enabling it to market its product ~25% cheaper compared to its global peers. Besides this, presence in India and proximity to other South Asian countries (Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia) home to the world’s largest natural rubber growing region ensures adequate supply of natural rubber (NR).

Additional benefits in terms of cost saving are expected to come from new greenfield expansion at Bhuj as proximity to the sea would significantly lower freight cost for exports. Another factor which helps BKT maintain its manufacturing cost competitiveness is its strong global distribution network (200 distributors) which does away with the cost of setting up owned warehouses.

Strong presence in niche segment

The global OHT market is a $11.5-12 bn market with the MNC tire companies viz: Michelin, Goodyear, Continental, Pirelli and Bridgestone, together accounting for 55-60% of the market which is growing at ~3-4%. However the small size (5-6% of total revenue) of the OTH segment makes it a non focus area for the MNCs. Further Chinese manufacturers with a focus on the large volume passenger car / CV segment have an

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inconsequential presence in the OTH export segment as the Chinese are losing the competitive edge on account of wage inflation, appreciating currency and restrictions (antidumping, ban) faced by Chinese tires in global markets.

The absence of significant competition, low cost base and competitive pricing have helped BKT emerge as a significant player in this segment. While the entire OTH segment has been growing at 3-4% CAGR, BKT (3-4 % market share) has been operating at peak capacity utilizations and over the period FY2007-11 has grown at a volume CAGR of 19%. The ongoing capacity expansion along with a wide array of SKUs would help it increase its market share to ~5% in the near term in our view.

Impressive basket of 1900 SKUs backed by strong in-house R&D

Continued focus on R&D activities has helped BKT develop an impressive product portfolio of 1900 SKUs spanning across the entire OTH segment i.e. tractors, trailers, earthmovers, farm equipments, etc. The strong in-house R&D team develops 150-160 new SKU each year which is far ahead of the industry standard of 50-60 SKUs. Capital intensive nature, technology development and long gestation period both for development as well approval from customers acts as entry barrier for competition. Moreover, BKT has developed the ability to run short production cycles of 3 days (compared to 3 months for other players) provides flexibility in operations resulting in faster execution of orders. Near term new product launches, like all Steel Radial Mining tires and Special Puncture Proofed tires for the defense segment, should help increase revenue streams besides diversifying its product base

Agriculture and OTR segment to remain key growth drivers

Currently, BKT derives 65% of revenues from the agriculture segment followed by the OTR segment (~ 30% contribution). Agriculture segment is expected to witness buoyant demand on account of soaring commodity prices, increased demand from developing countries and huge replacement demand potential as European consumers switch to radial tires (from the traditional bias tires). Additionally pick up in infrastructure development activities, both in developing as well as developed countries, is expected to boost demand for OTR tires.

As the OTR tires have a lower shell life (15-18 months) compared to 18-24 months for agriculture segment, we expect demand for OTR tires to grow at a relatively faster pace.

Potential markets to be tapped


Revenues by segments


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Foray in newer geographies while deepening penetration in existing markets to help diversify and consolidate global operations

In terms of geographies, 47% of revenue is contributed by Europe followed by 23% from America and 17% from Asia. India accounts for only 10% of revenues as BKT caters to only the OEM market here. Globally the replacement market accounts for 80% of the sales while OEM’s account for 14% and rest is attributed to the off-take market.

Key growth drivers


Also, as mentioned elsewhere in the report, the potential from the replacement demand for agriculture radial tires in the European market is huge and BKT is looking to tap this lucrative market. BKT is also exploring newer geographies such as Russia and CIS where appointment of new distributors and expansion in OEM segment are ongoing. Further BKT is also looking at tapping the replacement market in India, where it had no erstwhile focus.

Margins near trough and set to expand

We believe that EBITDA margins which have been under pressure are near lows and should bottom out in the medium term as NR (40% of RM cost) prices are expected to correct in the medium term (CY13) on account of favorable supply expected CY13 onwards. Better product mix and higher realizations are expected to provide additional cushion. We forecast one more year of margin compression to 15.9% in FY12 before the cycle troughs.

Low manufacturing cost provides enough headroom to pass on increased cost

Margins in FY11 were under pressure as the price hikes were not enough to cover the increased input cost. Moreover, FY10 was also an exceptional year in terms of margin expansion due to favorable currency movements which lifted the margins to the level of 25% as compared to historic margins of 18-20%

Growth Strategies

Increase penetration in

current markets

Increase exposure with

OEMs

Development of new

emerging markets vizRussia and

CIS

Enhancing product portfolio

Revenues by geography


Revenues by channel


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Realization to improve on account of price hikes

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Sales Volume (LHS) Realization Rs/kg (RHS)


Despite a series of price hikes (cumulative price rise of 20-25%) taken in the past 12 months to cushion the declining operating margins, BKT’s products still remain quite competitive as compared to its global peers. Low cost of labour coupled with economies of scale provides BKT enough headroom to continue to price its product at a discount to competition. Augmented by improved realizations and correction in NR prices, we expect EBITDA margin to improve to 18.6% in FY13 as compared to 17.1% in FY11.

Margins set to improve in medium term

Source: BKT, Ventura

RM cost hikes set to peak out in medium term as rubber supplies are expected to ease

RM cost forms a significant part (70-80%) of production cost and has been rising steadily over the past couple of years due to sharp rise witnessed in NR and other crude based commodities ( SBR, PBR, Carbon Black and Nylon Tyre Cord Fabric).

Excluding NR, other RM costs are a wild card and being derivatives of crude oil, their prices are only expected to appreciate in the long term, given the tight demand supply equation for crude. NR composes nearly 32% of cost and is the single factor affecting margins given the sharp upmove witnessed in its price since end 2008. We expect NR prices to remain firm over the next 12-18 months until production from new plantations adds to the supply and NR prices start easing off.

Quarterly realiasation and margin trends


Margin to recover from here

RM Cost break up


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Trends of NR prices

Source :Bloomberg, Ventura

NR Prices to ease off in CY13 as rubber production from new plantation comes on stream

Unprecedented rains in major cultivating areas, declining yields from existing rubber plantations, robust demand from new consumption centers and recovery in the developed world had fuelled the prices of NR over the past couple of years. The prices are expected to rule firm till CY13 when new rubber trees planted in 2005-08 start contributing to the supply (given the fact that its takes 7 year for a rubber plant to become productive). Further the plantations of 2005-2008 had witnessed dramatic growth of nearly 5-6 fold over the total plantations done in the previous cycle (1999-2001). This is expected to lead to easy supply in the medium term.

…however NR prices expected to remain firm in the near term, albeit with downside risks

Although the Fukishima earthquake, global inflation, and consequent tightening have threatened to slow down the world GDP and consequently rubber demand, NR prices are not expected to correct materially in the short term as China, the world’s largest NR consumer is expected to up its rubber purchases (In the past China has aggressively bought NR when global inventories have built up). Also members of the IRCo (Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand) have hinted at forming a cartel and protecting the export prices of rubber at around $4-$4.5 and this should help keep the landed cost of rubber firm around the current levels in the near term. However there is significant downside risk to price, in case the global recovery stalls and demand contracts.

Share of NR producing countries

Source :ANRPC, Ventura

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China’s widening NR Demand Supply Gap

Source :ANRPC, Ventura

Key Concerns Vulnerable to commodity price hike RM cost forms a significant part of production cost and a sharp price hike in the input commodities can significantly affect margins and hence profitability Currency fluctuation risks Over 90% of revenues come from the overseas operations and any adverse movement in the movement of currency can severely impact profitability of the company. Financial Performance Aided by strong volume growth of 20% YoY and improved realizations, Net sales for Q4FY11 grew by 30% to Rs 575.6 crore as compared to Rs 442.9 crore posted in Q4FY10. However, higher input cost (especially rubber) and lower exchange realizations dragged the EBITDA margin to 16.0%, a decline of 900 bps on YoY basis. Lower operating profitability was partially offset by higher other income and reduced tax provisioning. As a result of this Net profit margin for Q4FY11 stood at 9.0%, a decline of 470bps on YoY basis. Net sales for FY11 grew by 43.6% YoY to Rs 2002.9 crore as compared Rs 1394.3 crore posted in FY10. This was largely attributable to strong volume of 32% and improved realizations. Due to increased input cost, EBITDA margins for FY11 declined by 920 bps to 18.0% .Net margin for FY11 also declined by 570 bps to 9.3% (15.0% in FY10).

Rubber demand and supply scenario

Source: Industry Sources, Ventura

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RESULTS Q4FY11 (Standalone)

PARTICULARS Q4FY11 Q4FY10 FY11 FY10

Net Sales 575.6 442.9 2002.9 1394.3

Growth % 30.0 43.6

Expenditure 483.3 332.2 1642.6 1015.0

EBITDA 92.4 110.7 360.3 379.3

Margin % 16.0 25.0 18.0 27.2

Depreciation 18.9 17.6 74.4 66.2

EBIT (EX OI) 73.5 93.1 285.9 313.1

Other Income 6.4 4.4 10.4 19.1

EBIT 79.8 97.5 296.3 332.2

Margin % 13.9 22.0 14.8 23.8

Interest 3.5 4.1 21.2 18.7

PBT 76.3 93.4 275.0 313.5

Margin % 13.3 21.1 13.7 22.5

Provision for tax 24.3 30.0 89.4 104.8

PAT 52.1 63.5 185.7 208.7

Margin % 9.0 14.3 9.3 15.0 Source: BKT, Ventura

Financial Outlook On the back of enhanced capacities from the current 1,60,000 tpa to 3,07,000 tpa by FY13 and strong demand from global markets, revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 24.5% to Rs 3,411.4 crore by FY13 from the Rs 2,201.7 crore clocked in FY11. Improved realization and low cost of manufacturing should enhance EBITDA margin to 18.6% (+150 bps in FY13). Meanwhile we expect the company to maintain a Net margin of 8.8%.

BKT’s outlook

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Source:BKT, Ventura

Valuation We initiate coverage on Balkrishna Industries Limited (BKT) as a BUY with a price objective of Rs 216 (target PE of 7x) over a period of 18-24 months. At the CMP of 145.1 the stock is trading at 6.2x / 4.7x its estimated earnings for FY12/FY13 representing a potential upside of 49.3%.

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One year forward PE and Mean PE

P/E bands

P/BV bands

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EV EBITDA bands


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Profit & Loss Statement

Key Ratios

Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY2010 FY2011e FY2012e FY2013e

Net Sales 1574.5 2201.7 2842.1 3411.4

% Chg. 11.1% 39.8 29.1 20.0

Total Expenditure 1176.4 1824.6 2389.7 2776.3

% Chg. 2% 55.1 31.0 16.2

EBDITA 398.0 377.1 452.4 635.1

EBDITA Margin % 25.3 17.1 15.9 18.6

Other Income 18.8 10.8 6.0 7.0

PBDIT 416.9 387.9 458.4 642.1

Depreciation 68.6 77.3 80.8 133.3

Interest 19.3 22.3 40.9 62.3

Exceptional items - - - -

PBT 328.9 288.2 336.7 446.5

Tax Provisions 106.8 93.6 111.1 147.3

Reported PAT 222.2 194.6 225.6 299.1

PAT Margin (%) 14.1 8.8 7.9 8.8

Raw Materials / Sales (%) 49.7 59.9 63.6 60.4

Employee Exp / Sales (%) 3.7 3.2 2.8 3.4

Other Mfr. Exp / Sales (%) 21.4 19.8 17.7 17.6

Tax Rate (%) 32.5 33.0 33.0 33.0


Per Share Data (Rs)

EPS 23.0 20.1 23.3 30.9

Cash EPS 30.1 28.1 31.7 44.7

DPS 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

Book Value 70.5 89.0 110.7 140.0

Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio

Debt / Equity (x) 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.2

Current Ratio (x) 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2

ROE (%) 32.6 22.6 21.1 22.1

ROCE (%) 27.1 19.5 14.7 16.9

Dividend Yield (%) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Valuation Ratio (x)

P/E 6.3 7.2 6.2 4.7

P/BV 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.0

EV/Sales 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.6

EV/EBIDTA 5.1 5.3 4.4 3.2

Efficiency Ratio (x)

Inventory (days) 50.3 52.6 51.1 51.1

Debtors (days) 58.5 60.2 58.4 58.4

Creditors (days) 30.8 29.2 29.2 29.2

Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY2010 FY2011e FY2012e FY2013e

Share Capital 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3

Reserves & Surplus 662.1 840.9 1050.7 1334.0

Minority Interest - - - -

Total Loans 477.4 622.4 1405.4 1558.4

Deferred Tax Liability 57.6 57.6 57.6 57.6

Total Liabilities 1216.4 1540.3 2533.1 2969.4

Gross Block 909.2 977.9 1177.9 2377.9

Less: Acc. Depreciation 262.8 340.1 421.0 554.3

Net Block 646.5 637.8 756.9 1823.6

Capital Work in Progress 68.7 170.0 800.0 50.0

Investments 61.7 61.7 61.7 61.7

Net Current Assets 439.6 670.8 914.4 1034.1

Deferred Tax Assets - - - -

Total Assets 1216.4 1540.3 2533.1 2969.4


Profit After Tax 219.2 194.6 225.6 299.1

Depreciation 68.6 77.3 80.8 133.3

Working Capital Changes -80.4 -224.1 -151.7 -162.3

Others -10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

Operating Cash Flow 196.5 47.9 154.7 270.2

Capital Expenditure -124.2 -170.0 -830.0 -450.0

Change in Investment -57.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cash Flow from Investing -182.0 -170.0 -830.0 -450.0

Proceeds from equity issue - - - -

Inc/(Dec) in Debt -5.1 145.0 783.0 153.0

Dividend Paid -15.8 -15.8 -15.8 -15.8

Cash Flow from Financing -20.9 129.2 767.2 137.2

Net Change in Cash -6.4 7.1 92.0 -42.6

Opening Cash Balance 11.7 5.4 12.5 104.4

Closing Cash Balance 5.4 12.5 104.4 61.9

Exhibit 01: Financials and Projections

Ventura Securities Limited Corporate Office: C-112/116, Bldg No. 1, Kailash Industrial Complex, Park Site, Vikhroli (W), Mumbai – 400079 This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither Ventura Securities Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private circulation.

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