steve haeseker u.s. fish and wildlife service columbia ... annual meeting/mar 15... · basin-wide...
TRANSCRIPT
Basin-wide patterns in age-at-maturity
Steve Haeseker U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Columbia River Fisheries Program Office
Comparative Survival Study Oversight Committee
Age at maturity
Why is maturity important? 1) forecasting models 2) population productivity 3) fisheries
Age composition of returning adults (by brood or smolt migration year)
Can vary across populations and over time
Where? When? Why
Age at maturity data Requires adult sampling Scales Coded wire tags
PIT tags - negligible aging error - known population and individual ID - high sampling rates - consistent sampling effort across stocks - near real-time observations, non-lethal - coverage of some wild stocks
Potential issues Aging error, source population Expansion factors, reading tags, high sampling effort, little coverage of wild stocks
Summarizing age at maturity data
Mean age (at maturity): 10% age-3, 70% age-4, 20% age-5 = 4.1 years
Proportions at age: age-3 returns / total BY returns
Sibling relationships: age-3 v. age-4 and age-4 v. age-5 regressions
Comparative Survival Study PIT-tag analyses
11 stocks, juvenile outmigration years 1997-2011
Hatchery spring Chinook: Carson, Leavenworth, Cle Elum, Dworshak, Catherine Creek, Rapid River Hatchery summer Chinook: McCall, Imnaha Wild spring Chinook: John Day River, Snake River, Yakima River
Longer-term data: Columbia returns, juvenile migration years 1980-2013
Questions about age at maturity
Is age-at-maturity similar across stocks? Do overall survival rates (SARs) affect age at maturity? Does outmigration route affect age at maturity? What are the patterns of variation? - Within and across stocks - Over time
Mean age
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
SNAKE.W LEAV JDAR.W CARS DWOR YAK.W RAPH MCCA CLEE CATH IMNA
Mean proportion age-3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
CARS SNAKE.W JDAR.W YAK.W LEAV DWOR RAPH CATH CLEE MCCA IMNA
Mean proportion age-4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
CARS YAK.W JDAR.W CATH LEAV RAPH CLEE DWOR SNAKE.W MCCA IMNA
Mean proportion age-5
Mean age and proportion-at-age varies by stock
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
SNAKE.W LEAV DWOR JDAR.W RAPH CARS MCCA YAK.W IMNA CLEE CATH
Mean age related to SAR?
No relationship between SAR and mean age
Analysis of covariance Mean age ~ stock + SAR
P = 0.48
Mean age versus outmigration route?
Stock P -valueSnake River wild 0.43
Catherine Creek AP 0.98Dworshak 0.76
Rapid River 0.97McCall 0.47
Imnaha River AP 0.82
Paired t-test of transported versus in-river outmigration routes
No relationship between outmigration route and mean age
Temporal trends in mean age?
Wild fish older
Analysis of covariance Mean age ~ rear type + migration year Rear type: P < 0.001
Declining trend in mean age Year: P < 0.001
Similar trends among H & W Rear * Year: P = 0.35
Similar trends among stocks Stock * Year: P = 0.50
Standardizing mean age over time and across stocks
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Mean age Standardized mean age
Standardized mean age over time and across stocks
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011SNAKE
Standardized mean age over time and across stocks
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
SNAKE
JDAR
Standardized mean age over time and across stocks
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
SNAKE
JDAR
CARS
Standardized mean age over time and across stocks
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
SNAKE
JDAR
CARS
CATH
Standardized mean age over time and across stocks
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
SNAKE
JDAR
CARS
CATH
CLEE
Standardized mean age over time and across stocks
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
SNAKE
JDAR
CARS
CATH
CLEE
DWOR
Standardized mean age over time and across stocks
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
SNAKE
JDAR
CARS
CATH
CLEE
DWOR
IMNA
Standardized mean age over time and across stocks
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
SNAKE
JDAR
CARS
CATH
CLEE
DWOR
IMNA
LEAV
Standardized mean age over time and across stocks
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
SNAKE
JDAR
CARS
CATH
CLEE
DWOR
IMNA
LEAV
MCCA
Standardized mean age over time and across stocks
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
SNAKE
JDAR
CARS
CATH
CLEE
DWOR
IMNA
LEAV
MCCA
RAPH
Shared temporal patterns in mean age across stocks
stockyearresidual
Variation in mean age
46%
37%
17%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
2
4
6
8Snake Wild
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
2
4
6
8Carson
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
2
4
6
8Catherine Creek
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
2
4
6
8Cle Elum
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
2
4
6
8Dworshak
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
2
4
6
8Imnaha
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
2
4
6
8John Day Wild
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
2
4
6
8Leavenworth
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
2
4
6
8McCall
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
2
4
6
8Rapid River
Log (Age-4)
Log (Age-3)
Sibling models
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Snake Wild
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Carson
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Catherine Creek
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Cle Elum
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Dworshak
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Imnaha
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6John Day Wild
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Leavenworth
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6McCall
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Rapid River
Log (Age-5)
Log (Age-4)
Sibling relationships vary by stock
Sibling relationships
Kalman Filter sibling models
Standard sibling model: Log (Age-4) = a + b * Log (Age-3)
Kalman Filter sibling model: Log (Age-4) = at + b * Log (Age-3) at = at-1 + ei
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Kalman Filter sibling models
Age-4 ~ Age-3
Age-5 ~ Age-4
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
- 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
Forecast error
Age-3 proportion
Effects of variable jacking rates
Longer-term trends
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Age-3
Age-5
Age-4
Longer-term trends
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Age-3
Age-5
Age-4
Out-of-basin factors? Ruggerone et al. 2010
Conclusions and future directions…
Understanding age at mature is critically important
Large stock effects and shared temporal effects
Consider stock-specific forecasts
Investigate shared temporal effects (time & place)
Evaluate hypotheses against empirical data
Interested in collaborating! (long-term time series of similar data)