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Contents Section 1 – A Degree in Fantasy Sports Management ............................................................................ 5

Fantasy 101 – What the hell is NRL Fantasy? ..................................................................................... 6

Fantasy 102 – The Rules .................................................................................................................... 10

Fantasy 103 – Picking a side .............................................................................................................. 16

Fantasy 103 – Playing Head to Head ................................................................................................. 19

Fantasy 104 – Terms and abbreviations ........................................................................................... 21

Fantasy 105 - Setting your line-up .................................................................................................... 23

Fantasy 201 - What can 2015 tell us about mid-rangers? ................................................................ 24

Fantasy 202 - Understanding the point per minute ......................................................................... 27

Fantasy 203 - Trade strategy and the dreaded “trade rage” ............................................................ 32

Fantasy 204 - Bye Strategy ................................................................................................................ 34

Fantasy 205 - Captaincy Roulette ..................................................................................................... 38

Fantasy 206 – What are base stats? ................................................................................................. 40

Fantasy 301 - Fantasy logic, bias and process................................................................................... 42

Fantasy 302 - Team building strategy ............................................................................................... 44

Fantasy 303 - Lessons from the guns ................................................................................................ 47

Fantasy 304 – NRL Fantasy Draft ...................................................................................................... 49

Fantasy 305 – Winning cold hard cash with Sports Fantasy Pro ...................................................... 50

Section 2 – Pre-season Primer .............................................................................................................. 54

Cash cows .......................................................................................................................................... 55

Prospects list ..................................................................................................................................... 59

Undervalued players ......................................................................................................................... 62

Fantasy busts .................................................................................................................................... 68

The impact of reduced interchanges ................................................................................................ 70

Section 3 – Team and player profiles .................................................................................................... 72

Understanding projections ............................................................................................................... 74

Brisbane Broncos .............................................................................................................................. 76

Canberra Raiders ............................................................................................................................... 94

Canterbury Bulldogs ........................................................................................................................ 112

Cronulla Sharks ............................................................................................................................... 130

Gold Coast Titans ............................................................................................................................ 148

Manly Sea Eagles ............................................................................................................................. 167

Melbourne Storm ............................................................................................................................ 188

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Newcastle Knights ........................................................................................................................... 205

North Queensland Cowboys ........................................................................................................... 223

Parramatta Eels ............................................................................................................................... 241

Penrith Panthers ............................................................................................................................. 262

St George Dragons .......................................................................................................................... 282

Sydney Roosters .............................................................................................................................. 303

South Sydney Rabbitohs ................................................................................................................. 320

Warriors .......................................................................................................................................... 338

Wests Tigers .................................................................................................................................... 357

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Welcome to the first edition of the Renegade Fantasy Sports’ NRL Fantasy Prospectus. The Prospectus is where you’ll find all the information you need to have a great season of NRL Fantasy; including everything from the basics of selecting a team to advanced strategies and trade management. We have profiles on every cash cow, every mid-ranger, every gun… let’s just say every player. Whether you’re a Fantasy Boss, a Fantasy Blowhard or a Fantasy Rookie, we have something that will up your game.

THE AUTHORS

The Prospectus has been built up over a few seasons by a core group of Renegades. The 2016 Prospectus includes some material that has been updated from articles off www.reneagdesfs.com, plus some new material.

Steve Nicholls (@RNGDAnalytics) – Formerly the Renegade Rookie, Steve heads up the RFS Analytics department. He’s yet to pull everything together in NRL Fantasy finishing 614th in 2014 and 322nd in 2015, but he did win a huge $50 pay out in the New Zealand Herald’s NRL fantasy competition allowing him to refer to himself as “semi-pro”. A qualified accountant, crunching the numbers is Steve’s life.

Joel Huey (@DefensiveCentre) – Writing under the name The Defensive Centre, Joel has been a leading author of NRL Fantasy material, starting in 2013 with his own blog, and writing for RFS since its launch. Since 2012, Joel has finished 99th, 41st, 3500th, and 946th. At heart, Joel is a pretty conservative coach, saving trades for late season surges when injuries strike, and dedicating significant efforts to bye planning strategies.

We’d like to thank all those that have helped contribute to the prospectus, including JWarrior and

The Wizard for chipping in. Tim Ross for giving us some awesome graphics and our friends at

NYCDatabase for helping us with NYC stats. Thanks guys.

http://www.reneagdesfs.com/http://www.reneagdesfs.com/http://nycdatabase.org/

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Section 1 – A Degree in Fantasy Sports Management

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Fantasy 101 – What the hell is NRL Fantasy? Considering you found your way here, chances are you already know the answer to this, but in case you got here to satiate your desire for Naughty Russian Lesbian Fantasy, then I’m sorry to disappoint. Fantasy sports is a game where people get to build their own team of players and compete against others based on the real life exploits of their players. A bit like gambling, it is helps viewers engage with sports on a deeper level. NRL Fantasy is the official fantasy game of the National Rugby League.

You’re already a league fan. The weekend is a blur of beer and pizza, abusing referees, and praying for a shoulder charge. But, what do you do with the remaining 94 hours of your week? What about the long, dreary weekdays? What about the dull dinner conversations and terrible episodes of renovation reality TV? How do you get through?

Maybe you’re not a league fan, but you are just looking to bond with someone who is. Understand why it is all so important, why the video refs are so terrible for the game or why the players are so much softer than they were 30 years ago. Perhaps you know your partner is going to make you sit through five games a weekend and call it quality time and you need a reason to enjoy the experience?

You need a team.

Not some team you have no control over, but support as it lurches from one PR disaster to another. Not a team that doesn’t have the guts to sack a struggling half or a regressed alcoholic.

You need your own team.

A team where you can hire and fire any player you like. A team that doesn’t charge $160 per jersey. And most importantly, a team that won’t sack the coach.

You need NRL Fantasy.

In the United States and Canada, over 40 million people play some kind of fantasy sports, that’s about 10% of their combined populations. It is big enough in the United States that professional fantasy players can actually make a decent living from their imaginary combinations. It is a big business and although fantasy sports doesn’t have the same foothold in Australia and New Zealand, it is definitely still a growing market.

Back in the late 90’s I remember playing Super 12 Dream Team. You had to mail (that means using one of those stamp things) in an entry form picking your side and a few days later you’d get back this huge wall chart to keep track of a player's scoring. If you wanted to swap players you had to call up a number ($1.99 a minute) and enter in some player codes to make the trade. As I went to boarding school I had to cycle around to my grandparents to use their phone or just call my elderly grandfather with complicated instructions on how to make the trades for me and hope he wouldn’t muck it up.

Thankfully technology has progressed somewhat in the last 18 years and fantasy sports has been a big winner. Live scoring allows us to track our players in real time, we can access our teams from anywhere in the world, and we can talk trash to rivals 24/7. It is a glorious era we live in.

NRL Fantasy is the premier fantasy competition in Australasia. The best fantasy competitions have a reasonably easy scoring system that allows a player’s on field exploits to be easily translated into points. In NRL Fantasy, when you see your player do something good, you can be fairly confident

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that this is good for your fantasy team. Likewise, if they do something bad, you can be fairly certain this hurts your team. It is this blend of on field player with fantasy scoring that makes NRL Fantasy a better fantasy game than the alternatives (Supercoach and Dream Team).

I won’t elaborate on the rules, because they require a long novitiate and you can read them in the next section.

But, the basics are this.

● Build a team with players who play in the NRL.

● Each player has a value and your team has to cost less than the salary cap ($6.8 million).

● Those players get points when they play for their clubs.

● If those players perform better than their price would predict, they go up in value. If they go worse, they lose value.

● You get a certain number of trades each week to tweak your team, selling a player when injured or buying a rookie when he debuts.

Easy!

Now, here’s why you should do it…

The Cash Cows

We all hate that guy who sits at a BBQ and tells you about the form of some reserve grade nobody. Who cares?

Well, now you do. In fact you could be that guy at the BBQ!

You have to know the rookies. You have to sniff out the next Cherry-Evans, or Adam Reynolds. You have to judge if that English import has the temperament and skill for NRL. You have to decide if that new second-rower will play more than 20 minutes a game and if he’ll play for more than 3 weeks.

There are two reasons you need to know the rookies. First, you want to pick up the next Ben Hunt when he costs $130k, not when he costs $450k. Second, you need to milk your cash cows!

Cash cows are the money making part of your team. Without them, at season's end you will have the same assortment of mid-priced hacks you started with. Cash cows start cheap, play for a while, slowly gain value, and are then sold. You can buy another cash cow, or use that money to upgrade to a gun. In time, you’ll have a team of players you’d be proud to coach.

With restricted trades, each choice is vital. Buying a cash cow that plays three games is a waste. He will barely rise in value before you need to sell him. So, you need to think about how the club values him and why he’s in the team. Will they give him a few games before the star he replaced comes back? Is he so good that he simply cannot be dropped after he debuts? These are important questions…

The Guns

These are the elite. These players are blessed with skills perfectly suited to Fantasy scoring. You want 17 of them in your team as quickly as possible.

The top ten from 2016 are Corey Parker, Cameron Smith, Andrew Fifita, Paul Gallen, Simon Mannering, Johnathan Thurston, Ben Hunt, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Andrew McCullough, and Shaun Fensom. They tackle, they kick, they set up tries and break tackles. These are the best of the best,

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and any legitimate coach will loudly cheer their achievements and dread their failures. An injury to these gods will leave a pall over Renegades, followed by a week of mourning.

Head to Head

This is entry level stuff. Make a team and set up a league with your mates. Each week will bring on a new opponent, and the glory of victory. No more discussing the incompetence of the IT department with your workmates. Now you can tell them how terrible they are at Fantasy.

Overall

This is where the big boys play. The goal is simple: amass more points over 26 rounds of NRL than any of the other 300,000 coaches. However, achieving this goal is anything but simple.

The first thing is getting your initial team right. You can spend weeks getting the balance right between a few guns, cash cows and mid-rangers who you expect to explode. Then, once Round 1 starts, it’s all out the window. You need to trade to keep your scores competitive, but conserve trades to make sure late season injuries don’t cripple your team. You can’t miss the real cash cows, but can’t waste trades on ghost cows. One bad trade can unravel weeks of climbing the rankings. An unlucky injury can bring you to tears.

But most of all, you need to plan for the byes…

The Byes

The NRL is a truly unique code. In the middle of our season we have the State of Origin series. It’s the crown jewel of Rugby League, but it destroys the NRL competition for weeks. Over these weeks, premiership games are still played, but in a haphazard and seemingly random fashion. Each club will get two byes over this period, and each week will see a reduced number of clubs play.

But, Overall glory requires that you field a competitive team on each of these weeks.

You’ll need to study the byes and recite them in your sleep. You need to know who replaces CS9 when he plays Origin. Each week you need to trade to allow you to get maximum points, but keeps you competitive for the next bye round. You need to gut your team and rebuild it in seven weeks, and still have the trades and cash for the run home.

Remember, no one will remember the round where you made it into the top 100, they’ll remember you for finishing the job and staying there until round 26.

Renegades

There has never been a collection of degenerates and freaks that know more about Rugby League and Fantasy. If you want trade advice, post your team. You need help picking your bench, just ask. You want to have a four hour long argument about why Greg Inglis deserves to be picked at fullback for Queensland, this is the place for you.

You’ll get important player statistics, insightful articles and everything you need to shoot for Overall glory or H2H bragging rights.

But be warned, Renegades is a mirror on Rugby League. Violent outbreaks are common and passions run deep. It’s not a place for the meek and mild…

Signing up is easy. Register your team on the NRL.com website and find a league and you are set. Follow us at Renegadesfs.com and join the Facebook group for unfiltered banter and you will be dominating in no time.

http://www.renegadesfs.com/https://www.facebook.com/groups/FANTASY.RNGD/)

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Also, join the Official Renegades League, so you can track your team’s performances against other coaches in NRL Fantasy’s biggest group. Join using the code D63M67EM. To really show your dedication, preface your team name with RNGD.

If you wanted to take a shot at turning pro then Sports Fantasy Pro is the place for you. They offer a combination of free and cash buy-ins on weekly and daily fantasy games that you can win real cash.

https://www.sportsfantasypro.com/)

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Fantasy 102 – The Rules These are the rules from the NRL Fantasy website. We have only shown the rules that relate to the NRL game itself, not the various ways of setting leagues, or functions for viewing stats and rankings. This relates to the specifics of playing the game and scoring points. Each section will have a comment in italics, which is the Renegades Prospectus authors’ interpretation.

TEAM SELECTION

● You must select a total of 25 Players before the commencement of round one. If you register once the season is underway, you must complete your team before the next lockout commences. If your Team is not complete before this time, your team will be auto-filled with our smart auto-fill feature.

○ This is important. Don’t be that chump that complains about FanHub locking you out and your team being incomplete. Seriously, do yourself a favour and finish your team well before the first lockout. Probably the day before, just to be sure.

● You must select exactly 4 Centres, 4 Halves, 4 Front Row Forwards, 2 Hookers, 6 Second Row Forwards and 5 Fullbacks/Wingers.

○ Easy, the team page forces them into various positions. ● You will need to select your Team within the initial $6.8 million Salary Cap that you are

provided with. ○ You won’t be able to save your team otherwise, so get it under the cap!

● Players who are listed as being available for multiple positions can be selected in either position.

○ These “DPP” players (dual position players) can be very useful, so put them in the right place. That is, put them in the positions to maximize flexibility for setting line-ups and DPP trading (see below).

TEAM EDITING & TRADES

● In order for your Team to perform at its best, edit your starting line-up of 17 Players prior to the start of each Round. This can be done through making both Trades and Substitutions.

○ You have limited trades, so use them wisely. Substitutions are just moving players onto the field, onto the bench, or onto the non-playing reserves.

● Before the season begins you can make as many Trades as you like, but after Round 1 you are limited to two Trades per week.

○ Your pre-round 1 team is there for you to tinker with as much as you want. ● Choose your Captain wisely as he will earn double points. If your Captain doesn’t play, your

Vice-Captain’s Score will be doubled instead. ○ Captains need to be the best player you have, and don’t gamble on some unreliable

outside back.

YOUR TEAM

● Before the Round begins you can edit your Team as many times as you like. To assist with making your decisions, you can view more detailed statistics in the Stats Centre.

○ And, use this prospectus and www.renegadesfs.com to help you along the way. ● Each Round you must select a starting line-up of 17 Players with 1 Hooker, 2 Front Row

Forwards, 3 Second Row Forwards, 2 Halves, 2 Centres, 3 Fullbacks/Wingers, 4 Reserves and 8 Players on the Interchange Bench. You can name up to 4 Reserves per Round and these Players will be used as replacements for any of your starting line-up that do not play.

○ See the article on setting your line up below.

https://fantasy.nrl.com/help/index.html#/guidelineshttp://www.renegadesfs.com/http://www.renegadesfs.com/

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● The positions of your starting 17 are automatically arranged in the standardized positional format.

● You can only substitute Players who play in the same position. Make as many Substitutions as you like from Round to Round, but it must be finalised before the players have begun playing their respective games.

○ This refers to “rolling lockout”. As each game is commenced, the players in those games are locked into their positions, unavailable to trade or substitute.

SUBSTITUTIONS

● Drag the Player you wish to substitute out and drop him on the Player you want to substitute in or vice versa, or you can also use the traditional method of clicking on the Substitute buttons for the 2 Players that you want to switch. You can only substitute Players who play in the same position. Make as many subs as you like from Round to Round.

● Dual Position Player Substitutions – If you have two Players who have the same dual position listings (e.g. Halves and Fullback and Wingers) you can substitute them for one another even if you have selected them in different positions. However, if you only have one dual position Player (e.g. Halves and Fullback and Wingers) in a position with no other appropriate dual position Players in your Team, then they will be restricted to the position that you originally picked them in. Dual Position Player Substitutions on your Team do not count as Trades.

○ This is why DPP players can be really useful. You can shift players around the field, making your team very flexible and better able to cope with injury and suspensions.

TRADES

● There is no limit to the amount of Trades you can make prior to the commencement of the NRL Premiership Season or prior to the next game week after you make your team.

● Once the season begins, you are allocated a maximum of two Trades per week. During the bye weeks, users will be allocated an extra trade. Therefore, during the bye weeks, users will have 3 trades. The Trades DO NOT accumulate, thus if you don’t use two Trades one week you are still limited to only two Trades the following week.

● You are limited to a MAXIMUM of 34 Trades for the Season, which means if you use 2 Trades every week you will run out of Trades before the end of the season so don’t forget to save some!

○ Seriously, don’t be that guy… ● If you are unhappy with a Trade, you can reverse the Trade prior to the beginning of the

Round. ○ Reversing trades is great, but can also be a trap for indecisive coaches. Last minute

reverses have destroyed so many teams because the coach got cold feet. Do the research and trade when you can confirm the player will play on the weekend. Don’t get jittery.

● You are able to trade Players at any point after Lockout until their team begins playing their next round’s match.

○ This can be really useful. Some coaches like to trade through the round, to ensure that players will play before bringing them in (normally after game lists are released 1hr before the game). Of course, if you are likely to be drunk 1hr before the game, trading through the round can be risky business. You can also reverse trade during the round, if the relevant players haven’t played yet. Again, trading and reversing during the round can be difficult due to all the contingencies around rolling lockout. Also, if a DPP is involved in the trade (even if that player isn’t traded out), if they have played, they can’t be moved and will spoil your mid-round trade.

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● When you trade a Player, the difference between their Player Price and the Player Price of the traded-in Player will be added/subtracted from your Team Value.

● You cannot trade if the Trade will cause you to exceed your Salary Cap. This means you can only trade in Players whose Price is less than the Price of the Player you are trading out plus any unused Salary Cap.

CAPTAIN & VICE CAPTAIN

● Make sure to choose a Captain who you think will be the highest scoring Player in your Team, because your Captain scores double points.

○ See the article on Captaincy Roulette ● If your selected Captain doesn’t play then your Vice Captain’s Score will be doubled. ● There is no longer the ability to take advantage of the “Captain Loophole”. All Captain

selections must be made prior to the first game of the round and the Captain selection CANNOT be altered after the beginning of the round.

○ You can sub your captain out, which does create a loophole of sorts, but you lose your captain’s score entirely, whereas the original loophole allowed you to get your captains score added. This makes it less enticing. It was still possible to get your subbed captain’s score added in bye rounds in 2015 (because he because you’re Auto Emergency), but we won’t know about 2016 until the byes start.

RESERVES

● Each week you can select up to 4 Reserves. Reserve players are listed on the bench, however, these players scores will count towards your total score. Your reserves can be selected in any position you wish and you can select up to 2 Reserves per position.

○ See the article on setting your line-up to ensure you use your reserves properly. Hint: it’s not as simple as picking your worst players on the bench.

● All 4 Reserve Players’ Scores count towards your Fantasy total Score for that round.

AUTOMATIC EMERGENCY

● Your team is awarded ONE Automatic Emergency in the event that any one (or more) of your Starting 17 Players does not play and receives a Score of 0 points.

● A player from your Starting Line-up who doesn't take the field will be replaced by the lowest scoring Player from your Interchange Bench, whose minutes played are greater than 0 and whose Score is greater than 0.

○ So, if you have a negative score in your Non-Playing Reserve (interchange bench), he won’t be an AE.

● The Automatic Emergency Score will be automatically added to the total points scored to your Team.

"ZERO" SCORING PLAYERS

● If a Player you have chosen for your Team plays and scores zero, then there will be no Reserve Score to replace this Player. On rare occasions this may happen if a Player is injured very early in the game.

○ So, if the player stays on the bench and never steps onto the field, his 0 gets you an AE. If he does, and still gets a zero, you don’t get an AE.

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TEAM & PLAYER VALUE

● Players’ Prices change from Round to Round depending on how they have been performing over the previous weeks and months.

○ How player values change over the season is the basis for strategy in this game. In simple terms; buy low, sell high.

● The Players’ Prices will change based on a formula that takes into account their past performances. All games played by the Player since the start of the season are taken into account in the calculation of their Price changes, with a sliding scale of weightings with the most recent game receiving the highest weighting, as well as a component of their performance last year - if they played last year!

○ Don’t try and perfectly understand the formulae, all we can do is roughly understand it.

● The value of your Team is calculated based on the total value of your Team of 25 Players, plus any unused money in your Salary Cap. The value of your Team effectively becomes your weekly Salary Cap and may increase or decrease depending on the Price changes of your Players.

○ Your salary cap needs to grow over the season, otherwise you will have the same team for 26 rounds.

ROLLING LOCKOUT

● There will be a Rolling Lockout in place for 2016. ○ This means players become “locked out” as they play in their game (or their team

plays). During bye rounds, players from teams on the bye are locked out at the end of the round.

● You can Trade and Substitute players, and change Interchange and Reserves selections right through each round, up until the time of the start of their Team's actual match. Players are locked into your Team only at the time that their actual NRL match has started.

● All Captain & Vice Captain selections must be made prior to the first game of the round and the Captain & Vice Captain selection CANNOT be altered after the beginning of the round. This means there is no longer the ability to take advantage of the “Captain Loophole”.

POINT SCORING

● Your starting 17 Players will score points that contribute to your Team total. If one of these Players does not play then one and only one Automatic Emergency can score points for your Team as a replacement.

● You receive double points from your Captain (or Vice Captain if your Captain doesn’t play). ● Only the points of the 4 Reserve Players from your Interchange Bench points count to your

Team’s total.

CLUB BYES

● There will be three Rounds (12, 15 and 18) in 2016 where eight NRL teams will have a Bye in each Round.

○ See the bye planning article ● During the Bye Rounds you select your starting Team of 17 as normal, but you will be

provided with 3 Trades per week in Rounds 12, 15 and 18. ● Other than the aforementioned, all of the rules will stay the same during Bye Rounds,

including the Automatic Emergency rule.

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LIVE AND FINAL SCORES

● During a live Round you will be able to see the running total of your Team’s Score. Note that these Scores are subject to change after the completion of the Round as sometimes the official statistics are reviewed and changed post game.

○ Updating (and Down-dating) scores is part of the NRL Fantasy coach’s life. Get used to clicking refresh on your browser every 30s for hours after a game finishes to see if your captain lost 10 points or not.

● Usually the Scores are finalised within a few hours of the final game, but sometimes due to significant amount of data that needs to be processed it can take longer than this. We will endeavour to have the final results and Lockout lifted by 6.00am AEST the day after the completion of the final game.

● Once the Scores are finalised, the Lockout for that Round ends, the competition is reopened and you can start editing your team again.

○ In a never-ending cycle of addiction

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POINT SCORING

The Point Scoring system is the same as last season.

Activity 2016 Points

Try 8 Points

Goal 2 Points

Field Goal 5 Points

Try Assist 5 Points

Line Break 4 Points

Line Break Assist 2 Points

Tackle 1 Point

Tackle Break 3 Points

Missed Tackle -2 Points

Offload 2 Points

Error -2 Points

40/20 4 Points

Total Metres gained Total metres run divided by 10, rounded down to

nearest whole number

Kick Metres Total Metres gained kicking divided by 20, rounded

down to the nearest whole number

Penalty conceded -2 Points

Sin-Bin/Send-Off -5/-10 Point

Try Saves 5 Points

Kicks Defused 1 Point

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Fantasy 103 – Picking a side Picking your side can be the most enjoyable and aggravating experience of the season. Selecting 25 players to fit within a salary cap has been taken to an art form by some, and a science by others. Whatever it is for you, it shouldn’t involve auto-pick.

We don’t want to do all the work for you, so we aren’t just going to give you a side you can use, there is no fun in that. What we do want to do is use our past experience to provide some insights in how you might go about selecting a side.

Don’t go off early

You’ll probably pick your initial side in the weeks, even months, prior to the announcement of the teams for the first round. Don’t fall too in love with this side. Consider it a work in progress that will need to be fed and nurtured right up until the first lock out. Your key date will be the first team lists which come on Team List Tuesday (TLT), the Tuesday before the first round. That is the point that you’ll know what rookies and cheap players are in, whether a player might be in line for better minutes and whether an elite player has made it back from injury.

What’s the objective?

The objective of an Overall side is to start making big scores as quickly as possible. Unlike H2H, where your team should be peaking when the finals start, you want big scores as early in the season as possible. To do this, you may burn a lot of trades through the season and your team may fizzle out when late season injuries hit. But, to win, you need to start strong. This requires a careful balance between the three categories of player: cash cows, mid-rangers and guns. You can’t afford 25 guns, so compromise is the game. In an ideal world, you will recruit a team where all the cash cows and mid-rangers explode and turn into guns, but it just won’t happen. Instead, you will need to recruit cash cows that turn into mid-rangers, who can be cashed out for more cash cows, or upgraded to guns. Ideally, any mid-rangers you start with will become keepers, or even guns.

What if my cash cow isn’t named to play?

Should your 25 all be playing in Round 1? In 2015 three of the season’s best cash cows were not named in Round 1, but all were in action by Round 3. Those coaches that started the season with Coote, Bird and Taukeiaho saved three trades. That is really great for them, but if those three players hadn’t been named, some fantasy coaches would have found themselves in big trouble, so it comes with some risk. Holding out hope for a cash cow could be a better option than picking Brad Tighe, just because he is cheap. In 2015, when Coote wasn’t named in round 1, many coaches picked Nabuli or Lee instead, both known Fantasy spuds. Just picking Coote straight up would have been way more sensible than picking known poor scorers, just because they were named in round 1. It should be case by case, but unless there are very compelling reasons I think people should select a 25 who play in Round 1.

How do I pick the value players?

Most players are priced on their average from the previous year, the exceptions being rookies who are minimum priced and players who have played in the NRL or Super League before, who are priced based on some sort of magical alchemy. If a player is expensive, he was good last year; if he is cheap, he was crap last year. Building a fantasy team is all about value and finding players who are valued less than their output will be. Other than your core four or five guns, every other player should be picked because there is a credible reason to believe they can achieve a return greater than their starting price; if you are getting someone for any other reason, you are doing it wrong. Thankfully we have some of the players we believe to be undervalued in Section 2. That brings us nicely to the next point….

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Should I save money on mid-range players?

Don’t fall into the mid-range trap. Remembering that players are priced for a reason, you should only chase mid-range talent when there are compelling reasons to believe that talent will produce results better than their price. Those compelling reasons should not include “he’s been training the house down in pre-season” or “he set the club record in the dead lift”. Actual compelling reasons are; increased minutes, improved role, or prior year’s average impacted by random low scores.

This superstar seems to be too cheap?

Don’t get a player on name recognition. Kieran Foran is one of the best players in the NRL. He is also an incredibly mediocre fantasy player and he always has been. His game isn’t built on making lots of kicks, making lots of tackles, or getting his hands on the ball regularly. Don’t expect that to change. Likewise, Darren Lockyer, a possible future immortal, was very average in Fantasy. Players can be good on the field and not in your fantasy team, don’t presume just because you’ve found a superstar priced cheaply that he’s a good fantasy buy. In a related sense, remember that many NRL guns have lesser-rated brothers, who are not guns. Don’t make the mistake of thinking you are buying Andrew Fifita at a bargain price, because you have probably just bought the 20 minute per game brother, David.

Where should I spend the money?

Try not to stack a position. Some people like to balance their positions with a gun in every spot, but that isn’t a rule to live and die by. Sometimes all the cheap value can be at a certain position, so you may as well exploit it. Stacking a position could be troublesome because it can remove the flexibility of cashing a big time cash cow and early in the season this can be a frustrating impediment.

Should I just pick my team and fill the rest with $130k players?

Be realistic on cash cows and cheap players. Don’t pick the best 17 players you can and fill the side out with rookies. Come TLT, you’ll just have to blow it up to find players playing, so try to be a bit more realistic about which cash cows and cheap players are a strong chance to be in Round 1. Sometimes there are lots, and sometimes there aren’t.

Who should be the captain?

Pick a player you can captain. Your captain’s score is doubled, so it is important to have a reliably big scorer you can stick the C on every week. Playing captaincy roulette is a good way to court disaster.

What if I have money left over?

Should you spend your entire salary cap? Some people like to spend every cent, while others like to leave some in reserve just in case they need funds for an early trade. I like to find the best team I can and go with that regardless of whether I have no or a little money left, just don’t leave too much money left over, as that money in the bank doesn’t earn interest.

When do I consider the byes?

Don’t spend too much time planning for byes prior to the season. You want to know who has byes when and perhaps it might help you pick one player over another, but there is such a long time to until byes that you can do your team irreparable harm early in the season if you poorly plan.

What about H2H?

H2H is difficult to give advice for, as your strategy really depends on how good the coaches are in your league. If there are enough noobs in your league (you know, the guy from accounting who follows AFL and is in the league to make up numbers) your position in the top 8 will be assured. In that case, go for lots of cash cows so you have plenty of cash come finals. If it’s a gun league, expect

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the competition to be tight and making the 8 a difficult proposition. In that case, you may want to start with a more balanced team, such as one aimed to win Overall.

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Fantasy 103 – Playing Head to Head Beating a friend, enemy or frenemy in a H2H matchup can be an incredibly rewarding experience that captures the essence of the fantasy experience; the opportunity to lord your wisdom over another. Here are some tips that might help you get your gloat on.

You've only got two jobs

You have two jobs in a H2H league; make the playoffs, and have enough trades and a strong enough side to win the playoffs. Everything else is superfluous. Sure, it feels good to beat that smarmy guy from accounts, but the most important thing is to arrive in the playoffs with a team capable of going deep, and the team that can go the deepest is usually the one that has exercised the best trade management. Don't let yourself be distracted by short term moves that don't help you achieve those two jobs.

Chase cash cows early, consolidate late

To achieve those two aims you need to make stacks of money early and then consolidate the side late in the season for the run home. Making money is crucial to ensure you can get the very best side money can buy and you shouldn’t be afraid to jump on cash cows early in the season. Around Origin time though your focus has to be on the end game: getting your gun 17 and saving trades for the finals.

Bye weeks

Standard H2H leagues have byes in round 12, 15 and 18, so don’t worry at all about those weeks, put your feet up. You also might want to give some thought to round 13, 16 and 19, when players will have a bye but you’ll be playing a H2H round. If you are dominating your league, suffering a loss or two in those weeks probably doesn’t make a difference, but in a tight league, you might favour one player over another, just to make sure you have a player for every H2H round.

Paying attention to your opponent

Although you don’t want to wrap yourself up in knots thinking about what your opponent might or might not do, it is sensible to pay attention to their side. What are the points of difference in your squads? Are you the favourite or the underdog? Could you manipulate the captaincy choice in your favour? Sometimes the smart move can be the one that nets you less points. If you are the clear favourite working out who your opponent is going to captain and captaining the same player could eliminate an opportunity for your opponent to make up ground. If you are the underdog don’t be afraid to try a high risk move to pull off a win. Also, remember that your opponent could be gaming you, you don't want to be prematurely trash talking on Monday because you are up by 50 with your opponent only having Josh McCrone left, only to find that come the start of the game Josh McCrone is gone and Robbie Farah is in.

Know your opposition

If you play in a league made up primarily of New Zealanders, you have to have Shaun Johnson. If you play in a league made up of Rabbitohs fans, you have to have Greg Inglis. The last thing you want to see is a player with boom potential in your opponent’s line-up while you don’t have him. I have probably lost two or three games in the last few seasons, one a semi-final, purely because I got done in by a big game from SJ. It is frustrating and definitely a scenario you should try and avoid. If you know all your opponents are going to have a boom or bust player, just save yourself the aggravation and get him too.

You can’t control everything

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You can’t control it when you play the worst player in your league who captains Billy Slater only for Slater to score 91. A loss is still a loss when you have the second highest score in the league, but you happen to play the highest scorer. The role of luck is doubled in H2H play, because it doesn’t just matter for your own team, it matters for your opponent's team too.

Be patient with underperforming players

In a H2H league you have a little more leeway with underperforming players who could bounce back. Starting a H2H season a little slowly can easily be overcome if you’ve saved trades, and you don’t want to prematurely give up on a player unless there is a good reason to. 2014 Simon Mannering is a great example; he started the season averaging 29.5 in the first four games and finished it averaging 47.5 over the next 20. You’d have been pretty annoyed to have wasted a trade there, possibly two, if you had to trade him back in later in the year. If there is a clear reason to dump someone, do it, but if the reasons are less clear, lean towards holding on.

Be competitive

A H2H league is at its best when you can trade some banter with your fellow coaches. Set-up a Facebook group, encourage regular posting and get into the spirit. It’ll bring out the best in you. And while we are at it, don’t underestimate the pull of a money league. There is nothing worse than playing in a league with people who aren’t as committed as you, and money is a sure fire way to get some commitment. It doesn’t need to be much, but it will make a difference. It’ll bring out the best in you.

Decide early

You cannot start the season playing Overall, and then easily switch to H2H, and vice versa. The strategies are different, so pick a game to play and stay with it. If you start playing Overall, and decide after the byes that you can’t win, don’t worry. Do the best you can and beat it next year.

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Fantasy 104 – Terms and abbreviations 130k – This is the starting price for a new player. Occasionally, coaches will refer to a position they haven’t yet filled as being a 130k. Basically, some rookie cash cow they haven’t found yet.

Auto-Emergency (AE) – If you have a player in your 17 (13 on field and 4 reserves) who doesn’t take the field for his club (this includes staying on the bench for the whole game), you get an AE to cover that player’s position. The AE is the lowest scoring player (greater than 0) who you have in your remaining NPRs. Also, you only get one!

Break Even (BE) – the approximate score required for a player to hold his value. If he scores less, his value will drop. More, and it increases. Approximate BEs are kindly provided by RFS.

Byes – Because the NRL insists on putting State of Origin over many weeks in the middle of the season, the competition has a period where some clubs have a bye. Every club gets two byes over this period, during which time your players in those clubs will not score you points. For H2H teams, this isn’t a big problem, as most of these rounds are also H2H byes. For Overall players, this period is the most import part of the season. You will need to work hard to keep 17 players on the field over this time to keep the points rolling in. On top of the byes, State of Origin will make certain Fantasy guns unavailable. It’s the toughest part of the season, requiring spreadsheets, post-it notes and a lot of booze. But, it’s also the most exciting time of the season.

Captain (C or Cap) – Your captain scores double points. Choose him wisely. If you need to make up ground you can take the high-risk winger playing against a weak club, and then watch him get rested by the coach when his club builds up a big lead…

Cash Cow – a player who starts very cheap and increases in price over the course of the season. Cash cows are normally players you wouldn’t run in your scoring 17 if you had a choice.

Dual/Double Position Player (DPP) – A player who can be placed in two different positions. Common examples are players who can fill both CTR and WFB. This is useful for DPP trades. For example, you could trade a WFB out, bring one of your CTRs into WFB, and then purchase a new CTR. You can also do multiple DPP switches per trade.

Ghost Cow – A cash cow with great potential who never plays.

Gun – A non-stop fantasy point-scoring machine. Gun status is often argued about, but players like Cam Smith, Corey Parker, Daly Cherry-Evans and Andrew Fifita are undeniable fantasy gods. Importantly, a gun in a position like WFB and CTR doesn’t need to average as much as a gun in a high point scoring position like HOK or 2RF. It’s all about what players are available.

Head-to-head (H2H) – By getting 15 of your mates together you can play head to head matches over the season, with a final series at the end. The bye rounds are mostly unimportant, with personal matchups and rivalry the source of the fun. It’s entry level stuff and all the glory is in playing Overall.

Keeper – A player who is good enough to not trade out of your team by the end of the season. The definition of a Keeper is unique to every team, as the number of trades, available cash, and other problem positions may lower or raise standards.

Loophole – Made available by the introduction of rolling lockout in 2013, the loophole (or, Captain’s Loophole) was a strategic manoeuvre to get two bites at the captain cherry. Unfortunately, because some people didn’t understand how to use it, it is lost in the past…but in very unusual circumstances it is still a possible option. Keep an eye on the RFS website as the byes approach for some insights.

Mid-ranger – A player who’s not a cash cow and not a keeper. He’s scoring mid-30s and if you listen to your mate, he’s about to go huge. Normally your mate is wrong, as 70% of players are mid-

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rangers, and stay that way for their entire careers. But, you have to pick a few…so they better be the ones that turn into Keepers…

Non-playing Reserve (NPR) – A NPR is a player who is in your 25, but not selected in your scoring 17.

Nuffie (occasionally, 130k nuffie) – At the end of the season, coaches will trade out their cash cows to make cash for big upgrades. However, to avoid bringing in potentially shit AEs, they bring in basement price players who will never play. Maximum cash, minimum risk. In the injury crises of 2013, 2014 and 2015, this strategy left many teams with less than 17 players at the end of the season.

Overall – Overall coaches are those that are aiming to accumulate as many points during the season. Initially, this is to win the major prize. Most overall coaches realize they cannot win the prize from very early on. But, this isn’t an excuse to give up. Your end of year rank is a badge of honour (or shame) that will give you cred in Renegades and will need to be beaten next season.

Points-per-minute (PPM) -The average scoring rate of a player.

Reverse Trade – Before the first game of the round starts, you can trade and then reverse that trade.

RFS - Renegades Fantasy Sports, the best place for NRL Fantasy information.

Rolling Lockout – Because Tuesday team lists tend to be a bit unreliable, NRL Fantasy gives you the opportunity to keep trading and adjusting your team through the round. As a player starts a game, they get locked in and you can’t change them.

Smokey or Point/Player of Difference (POD) – A player, who most other coaches haven’t selected, that may score well. This is a good strategy if you need to play catch-up. But remember, there is often a reason that most coaches haven’t selected that player.

Team List Tuesday (TLT) – Every Tuesday, clubs will release their team lists, which will be posted up in Renegades. Take them with a grain of salt, they are just a guide. The NRL Fantasy website will also show which players are selected to play with green lights next to player names. These are based on Tuesday team lists, and may not reflect who actually takes the field. 2016 sees the introduction of push notifications for late mail. How that will look isn’t exactly clear yet.

Trade Rage – Many coaches will follow a bad round by making rash, ill-considered trades in an attempt to improve their team. This will normally leave rookie coaches with no trades well before the finals. Patience is the most important skill in NRL Fantasy.

Vice-Captain (VC) – If your captain fails to take the field for his club, your VC scores double.

Some common player abbreviations

DCE – Daly Cherry Evans

CS9 – Cameron Smith

CP13 – Corey Parker

PG13 – Paul Gallen

JWH – Jared Waerea-Hargreaves

RTS – Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

SKD – Shaun Kenny Dowall

SBW (SBW OMG, $BW, Money Bill) – Sonny Bill Williams

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Fantasy 105 - Setting your line-up Every Friday afternoon, you need to set your line-up. Assuming you have already made your trades, this involves selecting your starting 13, 4 reserves, a captain and a vice captain. This may seem straightforward, but it isn’t. These are the things you need to remember. First, do some research. Tuesday Team Lists will be out of date, so don’t trust them.

Your Captain choice should be easy, the highest averaging player in your team. But, remember that your captain will be locked in, so if he is any chance of a late withdrawal, it may be worth captaining another player to avoid a shitty AE.

Now, who should be in your starting 13? This may seem obvious; your best players in each position! But, it’s not that simple. First, it is important to note that it makes no difference to your score if a player in in the starting 13, or one of the 4 reserves. So, it is more sensible to set your line-up to maximise flexibility!

For example, put players on the bench who play last in the round. This way, they are available to switch onto the field if a player is a late withdrawal, and the reserve can be switched if needed. If your player is locked onto the field (because the reserves in that position have all played) he cannot be taken off the field if needed.

Also, take advantage of rolling lockout to protect yourself against injury prone players. Put them on the bench if they play late in the round. For the same reasons as above, this will enable you to switch a reserve if they are a late withdrawal.

H2H: Look at your opposition’s team and set a team to suit the matchup. If you can see you will need to make up ground, run PODs and a risky captain.

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Fantasy 201 - What can 2015 tell us about mid-rangers? This article is really pitched at the rookie coaches, who may not be familiar with how good coaches build their teams. But, the experienced coach may get a little out of this analysis. The general approach to building a team is to make it double tiered. That is, you want lots of expensive guns, and lots of cheapies. The reason for this basic team structure is that guns will score you the points, reliably, while cheapies will make you the money. As you can see below, there is a pretty strong relationship between starting price and season average in 2015. In essence this is saying that 2014 form (which is the basis for a players starting price in 2015) is a pretty good predictor for their form in 2015.

As you can see, there’s a lot of variation around the line of best fit, which seems to be more pronounced at the cheaper end of the scale. This is what you might expect, where the cheaper players are probably those with fewer games, and therefore a less well calibrated price from previous season’s scores. In the $200k-$300k range, a player can expect to score between 12 and 50 points that season, which is a big range. In the $500k plus range, you can expect a minimum of 54 points per game for your investment. So, that explains the value of investing in big guns, but what about the cheapies? This graph shows the relationship between starting price in 2015 and the net price change for that season.

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This shows a pretty clear relationship, whereby the more money you invest in a player at the start of the season, the greater their probability of losing you money. So the conclusion is clear, when it comes to risk, the cheaper players are better. They are much more likely to make you money, which is unsurprising as the cheapest players have so little to lose in the first place. Like the first graph, the other notable pattern is the very broad range around the mid-range players. A player starting between $300k and $350k could earn you $192k or lose you $208k. The combination of these two graphs really demonstrates the riskiness of players starting in the $200k to $400k price range. In this range, players average 35 points per game, but will on average lose you $19k. For players starting less than $200k, you will give up only 8 points on average (players average 27 points per game), but will make $64k on average across the entire season. Of course, these numbers ignore the great skill we all wield (or think we wield) when selecting a team. We all think we will pick up the Roger Tuivasa-Sheck’s (starting price of $321k, with a price rise of $192k and average of 54 for 2015) and will steadfastly avoid the Tinirau Arona’s (starting price of $341k, with a loss of $208k and average of 17). But, let’s just visit some of the notable popular picks from preseason 2015 to remind ourselves of just how difficult this game can be to play.

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Player Starting Price (2015) Net Price Change (2015) Averages (2015)

Josh Papalii $396,000 -$107,000 45

Sam Thaiday $380,000 -$92,000 41

Dylan Walker $386,000 -$127,000 27

Mitchell Aubusson $269,000 -$21,000 38

Billy Slater $388,000 -$90,000 26

Tim Lafai $392,000 -$174,000 39

Dane Gagai $319,000 -$138,000 37

Konrad Hurrell $358,000 -$145,000 27

Sam Tomkins $383,000 -$176,000 26

Blake Ferguson $288,000 -$33,000 35

Steve Matai $267,000 -$139,000 19

These are all players who have good name recognition with the rookie coach (e.g., Billy Slater), featured heavily in preseason discussions/hype (e.g., Mitchell Aubusson), made exciting mid-season returns from injury (e.g., Dylan Walker), or had okay bye coverage (e.g., Tim Lafai). These are all players that would have been in many a fantasy coach’s team in 2015, and all bled significant cash and/or averaged very poorly. In summary, you need to minimise risk to win NRL Fantasy. Sure, you will inevitably have to pick some mid-rangers, and some are obvious choices. But be wary, because players between $200k and $400k will make or break your season. Don’t just follow the crowd.

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Fantasy 202 - Understanding the point per minute Point per minute (PPM) is a term you’ll commonly hear referred to regularly throughout the season. Because players don’t all play the same amount of minutes a PPM makes players’ fantasy production relative to their minutes. This is a very useful tool in assessing the level of production a player could get in different levels of minutes. On a very basic level if a player has a PPM of 0.80 he would score 24 points in 30 minutes and 48 points in 60 minutes.

That’s the real basics but there are a lot of tricks in how you can best apply the information to help your fantasy team.

Is a PPM static?

In my experience the PPM of players in the forwards are impacted by two things: minutes and role. People like to think that players improve, and they do, but rarely does this have anywhere near the impact that minutes and role has. This is the reason you shouldn’t buy into the hype about a player looking great in pre-season because it probably won’t matter unless he has the minutes or role to capitalise on it.

Like their fantasy scores the PPM’s of backs and especially centres and wings can be all over the place because their scores can rely heavily on less consistent areas like try scoring.

So how does increased minutes impact PPM?

Increased minutes can lead to increased fatigue which in turn leads to a reduction in efficiency and a decrease in PPM. David Klemmer’s scores are a good example of this:

Each of the dots represent a game and show the number of minutes Klemmer played and the PPM he scored. The line through the middle represents the overall decline in PPM Klemmer has as his minutes get greater. The steeper the line the more drastic a change in PPM while a flatter line represents a player who might not see much change in PPM at all. Based on the line Klemmer could be expected to have 1 PPM in 20 minutes which would equal 20 fantasy points and about a .82 PPM in 60 minutes which would represent 49.2 fantasy points.

However, the data points aren’t clustered around the trend line which does impact on how much confidence you can place in the trend line’s accuracy. Part of the reason for this is because in

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Klemmer’s games of between 20 and 40 minutes he only had one game with a PPM above the trend line, while all but two of Klemmer’s games of 40+ minutes he’s above the trend line. That’s really odd and it could mean the trend line projects Klemmer’s PPM too low. If I was asked to guess I’d go with a number slightly higher than the trend line. Regardless it demonstrates how PPM can decline in reduced minutes.

How does role impact PPM?

Props and locks have a much higher workload, mainly tackles, than edge back rowers. So when a player who has played on the edge moves into the middle you could reasonably expect a jump in his PPM. Leeson Ah Mau is a good example of this over the last two years. He played mainly an edge back rower role in 2014 and had a PPM of 0.6, in 2015 he played prop with a PPM of 0.92. On the flipside Corey Oates had a PPM of 0.64 in 2014 when he played most of his games in the second row but in 2015 he was on the wing and had a PPM of 0.48.

Is past PPM relevant to the future?

Stats suggest that a player’s PPM one year is strongly correlated with his PPM the following year. And when there is a big fluctuation it is primarily changes in minutes or role or random attacking stat fluctuations that is the contributing factor.

Here’s a scatter graph showing all players that played more than five games in 2014 and 2015 and their overall PPM in each year:

This is a data set that has a pretty strong correlation and there are a lot of groupings around the trend line. Although that gives us some confidence that year to year PPM is pretty reliable it is really useful to have a look at some of the outliers to see what factors contributed to their change.

Here’s that scatter graph again with a few of the outlying data points identified:

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RTS – role change. Moved from wing to fullback. Interestingly Semi Radradra’s data point is just below this.

Mannering – role change. Moved from second row to lock.

Ah Mau – role change. Moved from second row to prop.

Evans – improved play? This looks like the rare occurrence of a player making massive improvement in PPM while playing the same role and minutes.

Boyd – improved play or fluke stats? Shannon Boyd played more minutes in 2015 and increased his PPM. When you do the same analysis Boyd as I did for Klemmer his PPM still declines with more minutes and I suspect some of the improvement in PPM is Boyd playing better and some is fluke stats (he scored five tries in 2015 and one in 2014).

Granville – increased minutes. Granville increased his minutes in 2015 and saw a reduction in efficiency.

Koroisau – role change. Koro went from playing interchange hooker to playing a lot in the halves.

Mansour – reduced attacking stats.

Hurrell, Lafai – reduced attacking stats.

Matai – playing about as bad as someone can play.

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PPM won’t tell us much about Mansour, Hurrell, Lafai and Matai other than they played a lot better in 2014 than they did in 2015.

I think I know who the next Kane Evans is how will he score?

You’re pretty brave if you take this approach. Only 20 players lifted their PPM by more than 0.20 and looking and the list you only find three names that were relevant to fantasy last season (RTS, Stewart and Mannering). Here’s the list:

Player 2014 PPM 2015 PPM Increase

Kane Evans 0.791 1.132 0.341

Leeson Ah Mau 0.602 0.924 0.322

Sebastine Ikahihifo 0.585 0.891 0.306

Jason Taumalolo 0.606 0.879 0.274

Suaia Matagi 0.614 0.886 0.273

Tim Browne 0.804 1.075 0.271

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 0.456 0.708 0.251

George Rose 0.607 0.848 0.241

Jared Waerea-Hargreaves

0.695 0.931 0.236

Ava Seumanufagai 0.695 0.930 0.235

Shannon Boyd 0.881 1.115 0.235

Thomas Leuluai 0.339 0.572 0.234

Adam Blair 0.545 0.761 0.216

Darcy Lussick 0.603 0.817 0.214

David Taylor 0.532 0.744 0.212

Sika Manu 0.488 0.696 0.208

Glenn Stewart 0.422 0.629 0.206

Luke Lewis 0.480 0.684 0.205

Simon Mannering 0.564 0.767 0.203

Jarrod Wallace 0.716 0.920 0.203

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And here is why the above list contains a lot of non-relevant fantasy players. Let’s say your player played 35 minutes last season and had an 0.75 PPM he would have averaged 26.2 and had a starting price of $235k. Here’s what you can expect from him over a number of PPM intervals:

PPM 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.0 1.1

Average 28 29.8 31.5 33.3 35 38.5

Price $250k $266k $282k $298k $313k $344k

As you can see this shouldn’t be very enticing. Even in the highly unlikely scenario that you are right about the player improving like Kane Evans did he still only increases his fantasy average by 12.3 points and $109k.

You really need to find players who are doing more than just increase their PPM which leads us right back to why a player’s PPM in one year is relevant to the next. The most likely scenario is a player’s PPM will continue at a pretty similar level to the one he had last year unless

Show as an example of a player with an expected decline in PPM as their minutes increase?

We can do a similar example as above. This player has excelled in limited minutes and had a PPM of 1 playing 20 minutes a game which put his starting price at $179k. We’ll lower his PPM as his minutes increase which will make him look something like this:

Minutes 30 40 50 60 70

PPM 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75

Average 28.5 36 42.5 48 52.5

Price $255k $266k $380k $429k $469k

With that sort of PPM this player is probably a front rower, so getting 60 or 70 minutes is pretty unrealistic but even at the 30 or 40 minute mark this player is useful for fantasy and probably not as hard to identify as a player who will make a sudden leap in his PPM.

Being able to apply a PPM combined with some ability to identify players who will see a big leap in minutes is one of the best ways to make sure you find the right mid-range talent.

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Fantasy 203 - Trade strategy and the dreaded “trade rage” The round is over!

Just let that settle-in, kick back and take a deep breath…

We’ve all experienced a big weekend; our teams won or lost, and NRLF took us through an emotional rollercoaster. But, even though it seems that the clouds are clearing, beware the storms building on the horizon – trade rage.

For me, trade rage is any irrational urge to trade without properly assessing the facts and failing to think long term. Mostly, it involves trading out one of your players who has a shit match. Trade rage can lead to successful trades, but will more often lead to bad trades. Then, to resolve the bad trade, trade rage tempts you to do it again. At the bottom of this rabbit hole is a shattered team, with no cash and no trades. You’ll probably be selling your body for crack by then.

Even when you think you are being an informed and rational being, it is still easy to slip up. Temptations await you at every turn – that cash cow you missed out on who just went huge, or that gun who started Round 1 with a 40. So, to help you avoid making mistakes, I will share with you my “guidelines” for making a trade. I run through these points whenever I make a trade to make sure I really need to pull the trigger, or if it’s just the rage talking…

First up, you have to realise that a trade has two sides. You will be removing a player, and gaining a player. You can benefit from both of these sides, by buying a player who is a gun or on the rise, AND, by selling an injured player, or mid-range player who has plateaued in value or is losing money. By aiming to benefit from both sides of a trade, you minimise the risk of it going bad. A miscalculation on one side of the trade still leaves you with the benefit of the other side.

So, the real question you have to ask yourself before trading is; what is the upside of both sides of this trade? If you can’t identify what the upside is, you probably should not trade.

Here are the other mantras that are necessary to cite before pulling the trigger.

There are always more cash cows

At the start of the season, it seems like every cash cow could be the last. But, as the season rolls on, you realize that every week will produce a new must-have. You can’t buy every one, so don’t spend a trade to chase the latest cash cow sensation. Wait until you need to get a cash cow (e.g., downgrading a ripe cow), and you’ll often find that there is someone to fill the need.

Don’t trade guns.

Just because a gun scored below their BE, they need to be trusted. One added value of having guns “locked in” is that they are positions that no longer need trading. Every time you bring in a gun, you are saving trades in the future. Stay strong.

How long is the injury and how many points can your backup score?

If you have a gun out for 4 weeks, and your backup will score 15 points less, that means you are only 60 points behind. Is that trade worth 60 points? You need to think about this whenever a gun gets a non-season ending injury or suspension. Also, remember that many players manage to return early, so the “official” return date may not be final.

Think about the byes.

After the first few rounds you need to start thinking about byes. A cash cow is great, but a cash cow that will ripen just after Origin, and play in some tricky bye rounds is brilliant. In the same way, if a

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cash cow has ripened before the byes, but is good for tricky bye rounds, then keeping him for a few more weeks, even if he loses some value, may be a good strategy.

Long term strategies

When thinking about trades, you should also consider how your trades will be used across the entire season. Remember, you have a limited number, so you need to abstain in some rounds. There are two extreme strategies that are often employed.

GO HARD!

The first is to trade as much and as often as required to keep your scores in the top bracket of teams (that doesn’t mean trade rage!). This could involve running out of trades soon after Origin, and coasting into the final rounds. But, it assumes that your team will already be doing so well, and everyone else will also be crashing, so a late season fadeout will not hurt too much. It is also based on the notion that having guns in your team ASAP gives you time to accumulate points across more rounds, as compared to bringing them in later, where less rounds are left.

The downside is that if you are not in the top teams when trades run dry, your final rank will be the embarrassment of all of your offspring and ancestors. It is a boom or bust strategy, and is probably the only way to really win the comp. But, it has left many teams on the scrapheap after round 20.

Save for injuries

Ultimately, injuries always decimate teams in the Origin and post-Origin period, so pretending they won’t happen is just madness. Many a late season climb has relied on having good bye planning and a few extra trades in reserve. For example, The Defensive Centre managed to move from 10k to 1k from round 11 to round 26 in 2015. He’s a fastidious trade saver, which also why his seasons start slow, with the GO HARD! mob taking the early lead.

To bye plan, or not?

Many coaches will have some experience with running a H2H team and an Overall team, and by round 26, their H2H team is rushing up the ranks, leaving their Overall team for dust. Some coaches have concluded that this means bye planning is a wasted effort. See more below, but fundamentally, coaches whose Overall teams are overtaken by their H2H teams are just bad at bye planning.

What should you do?

Of course, every team will fall into some place among these extremes. You need to navigate your own course, and find the strategy that suits you best. Some years might benefit one strategy over the other, but you probably won’t know until after the season finishes. That’s the best bit about Fantasy, you are an expert when the season is already over...

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Fantasy 204 - Bye Strategy The most interesting part of playing for Overall glory in NRL Fantasy is the bye period. Here’s how you manage to keep your sanity and keep climbing the ranks.

Between Rounds 12 and 19, each of the 16 NRL teams takes two rounds off, in a system that is neither fair nor comprehensible. There are six weeks impacted by byes: three big byes when just 8 teams play (Rounds 12, 15, 18), one medium bye when 12 teams play (Round 19) and two small byes, where 14 teams play (Round 13, 16). Other than the bye rounds starting and finishing a week later, this is the same set-up from 2015.

For these rounds, players will be unavailable from certain clubs, but fantasy coaches still need to churn out big scores. Add to this the unavailability of Origin players during Rounds 12, 15, and 18, and their possible unavailability in the weeks after Origin (or through Origin related injury), and we can all agree that you can’t just wing it through the bye weeks.

So, how do you manage this mess?

First, you need to be able to visualise it. In the image below the yellow cells represent the Origin rounds, where Origin players will be unavailable, and the red cells are the weeks where each team has a bye. As you can see, some rounds are worse than others, and some teams are better than others for those byes.

Some people think that bye planning doesn’t matter, and that you just lose points in the non-bye weeks to get a small improvement in scores in the other weeks. But, there is more to it than that. Bye planning is about optimising your roster to maximise the points of your team across those rounds. For example, just say you have someone who misses rounds 11 and 14 (playing for the Panthers or Sharks), who is cash cow that has reached his peak value (so in his non-bye games, he’s probably not in your scoring 17). Rather than carrying that player through the byes, where he will contribute few points, if you buy someone in that position who does play in those byes (e.g., a cash

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cow from the Eels), you get points on the field that you otherwise wouldn’t. That is the essence of bye planning, but there are some traps too (more on that later).

It’s time to get planning.

Many different approaches are available to plan for byes. Some people like to steal a whiteboard from work and cover it in player names, bye availability and thousands of lines connecting trade options. Another option is to take hundreds of post-it notes, thumbtacks, and string and creating an elaborate “murder mystery” spider web on one side of the bathroom wall. I prefer the less creepy option of setting up a spreadsheet, and leaving it on your desktop (or in Dropbox for a little tinkering at work), so it can be checked every 15 minutes, from its creation until Round 19.

First thing, is to list your team, in each position. Then, you work out what teams will be available for each round. This needs to include Origin players, which can be hard. Anyone know how many halves the Blues will use this year? The first thing this will highlight is what players miss the most games. Here is a breakdown of the teams and their respective bye attributes.

Group 1 - Eels – Miss Round 13 and 16

The Eels are the only team that plays all the big byes and their byes fall in weeks in which you’ll have no trouble fielding a full squad. Their byes are as good as it gets. The problem is the Eels aren’t a strong fantasy side. Nathan Peats could have value if he gets an 80 minute role but he’s finished the last two seasons injured and probably isn’t an elite option, the second rowers will cannibalise each other and neither of the halves are strong fantasy scorers. Clinton Gutherson could be a decent cash cow and Michael Gordon might be a touch under-valued but is he a good enough scorer to have on your team for 18 weeks? Do you have the cojones for the Semi truck? Origin players from the Eels are terrible so if you needed another reason not to get Beau Scott there it is.

Games missed by Origin players - 5

Group 2 – Dragons – Miss Round 13 and 18

Dragons’ players will get you through the early phase of the byes as their early Round 13 bye should be easy to cover. You could look to move them prior to Round 18 to players on teams finished with their byes (Eels, Roosters, Panthers, Sharks).

Games missed by Origin players - 4

Group 3 – Roosters – Miss Round 12 and 16

I consider the Roosters byes as being slightly behind the Dragons purely because the Roosters big bye week comes early and that might prevent you building around them prior to that. That does mean that after the Roosters’ first bye in Round 12 you can load up on them with some confidence and if you had Broncos or Knights to trade after the Round 12 bye trading them to Roosters is ideal. If Blake Ferguson can regain his Origin jersey does that mean a couple of games for budding superstar Latrell Mitchell?

Games missed by Origin players - 4

Group 4 – Panthers, Sharks – Miss Round 12 and 15

People often underrate the importance of the teams that finish their byes early. I think players from the Sharks and Panthers will be more valuable than the next group of teams even though the next group play two of the big byes. Non-Origin keepers from these teams will be gold after Round 15, hopefully by that point of the season we will know if the Sharks and Panthers actually have any non-Origin keepers.

Games missed by Origin players - 3

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Group 5 – Bulldogs, Cowboys, Raiders, Tigers – Miss Round 15 and 19

This group of teams play two of the big byes but they should only be a complimentary part of your bye planning rather than forming the nucleus. The problem with them is best summed up like this – Round 12 playing, Round 15 bye, Round 18 playing, Round 19 bye. That playing, bye, playing, bye pattern could be a real annoyance as it is much easier to deal with teams that have a run of byes or games they are playing. If you are running a low trade strategy you could use this group along with teams in the first three groups and group 7 as they don’t share any byes but with a 25 man roster and the need to field 17 players it can be a risk and you’ll probably lose ranks over the bye period which you then have to hope you can make up at the end of the year.

Games missed by Origin players - 4

Group 6 – Broncos, Knights – Miss Round 15 and 18

The Broncos and Knights will help you get through the first big bye in Round 12 making them an attractive option throughout the early part of the season. After that though you’ll want to dump any non-keepers prior to their two byes before you grab their guns in Round 19. You should be familiar with that pattern as it is the same one the Broncos have had for the last two years.

Games missed by Origin players - 3

Group 7 – Rabbits, Sea Eagles, Storm, Titans, Warriors – Miss Round 12 and 18

There isn’t much good about this group of teams. They only play one of the big bye weeks and it is sandwiched between missing Round 12 and 18. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t chase guns and cash cows from these teams but you do so knowing they won’t help much during byes. As above combined with teams in Group 1, 2, 3 and 5 these teams could be part of a trade conservation strategy. Origin players from these clubs will only miss one extra game so you can probably carry CS9 all season if you wanted to.

Games missed by Origin players - 3

Identifying complementary groups of teams to maximise trade value could put you ahead of the pack. Here are the complementary groups.

Complementary groups utilising trades

Group 6 (Broncos and Knights) to Group 3 (Roosters) from Round 13

Group 2 (Dragons) to Group 5 (Panthers and Sharks) from Round 16

Group 2 (Dragons) to Group 3 (Roosters) from Round 17

Group 2 (Dragons) to Group 1 (Eels) from Round 17

Complementary groups for trade conservation

Group 1 – Group 4, Group 5, Group 6, Group 7

Group 2 – Group 3, Group 4, Group 5

Group 3 – Group 2, Group 5, Group 6

Group 4 – Group 1, Group 2

Group 5 – Group 1, Group 2, Group 3, Group 7

Group 6 – Group 1, Group 3

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Group 7 – Group 1, Group 5

What’s the take home message? It is that this isn’t easy, nor is it a one off job.

In my view, every trade from approximately round 7/8 needs to start thinking about byes. You need to be keeping an eye out for cash cows from the teams with good byes, remembering that a lower scoring cash cow that plays in the tough rounds could be better that a fast cash earner that can’t help your numbers. You need to ensure the big bye rounds don’t blind you so you lose sight of the minor bye rounds. You also need to keep an eye on the Origin selection talk and avoid players who may be called up.

This may sound like a massive pain in the arse, but once you start playing around with different team configurations, it’s actually a lot of fun. It’s also the only way you’ll finish with a good rank, because good coaches surge during the byes, they don’t fade.

A few cautionary words

Some coaches warn against “over planning” for byes. I don’t like that particular phrase, as I don’t think you can plan too much. But, you can do bad bye planning, which is what I want to warn against.

Every trade requires a consideration of points for your team, money to be made, and trades required. Bad bye planning is when you think too much about the points over the byes, and not enough about the points for the season and other factors. A classic mistake is bringing in a mid-ranger with good byes, who loses money over the byes and then needs to be traded out. If that player scores 40 points per round, for those three rounds, that’s 120 points, which costs you thousands of dollars as he depreciates, and 2 trades, as you need to upgrade him into a true keeper after Origin. This is bad bye planning.

Remember, bye planning needs cash cows and guns. Cash cows allow you to roll money over to get a gun elsewhere, can grab a few points in hard rounds, and make money for late season upgrades. Guns will stay in your team all year, making your scoring 17 all season and will only require the one trade to bring in.

Don’t let a few points in the short term cause you to damage your team long term.

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Fantasy 205 - Captaincy Roulette I made a few blunders in 2015, but the one that got me the most was falling into the captaincy roulette trap in the early part of the season. Captaincy roulette is something I have railed against in the past, so to fall into the trap myself was somewhat painful and embarrassing, but here we are.

For those unfamiliar with captaincy roulette, it is when you continually change captains week to week and it occurs because you are aggressively seeking out the best scorer, or you don’t have a reliable gun you can count on. The second boat is where I was firmly placed last season.

In the first seven weeks I used five different captains. Five! That is probably more than I used in 26 weeks in 2014. Round 2 was the only time I played the same captain two weeks in a row. I managed to captain Farah, Reynolds and Segeyaro for their worst scores of the season at that point and that culminated with my nadir: Ben Hunt’s epic round 7 flop (17 points).

There were a number of factors that have given rise to captaincy roulette in my team: CS9’s unpopularity at the beginning of the season, Farah’s limited minutes, the multitude of good/not great alternatives, and injuries or suspension to captaincy options.

The whole problem with captaincy roulette is that you are just as likely to come up red as you are black. And if you then change your selection the following week, once again you are just as likely to come up red as you are black.

A player scoring well or badly one week has very little correlation with what he will do in the next, but setting a captain shouldn’t be about week to week scores, it should be about captaining an average, which means taking the good and the bad and achieving a net position of 60+ a week. Locking in a top scoring captain is one of the best luck mitigating strategies you can make and fantasy is a lot about managing the impact luck can have on your team.

The 2015 season saw me create a near perfect storm of bad captaincy choices. Here was my roll call of infamy over the first seven weeks of the year.

Round Captain Score Average Difference

Round 1 Farah 63 59 +4

Round 2 Farah 37 59 -22

Round 3 Segeyaro 63 61 +2

Round 4 Reynolds 30 60 -30

Round 5 Mannering 52 60 -8

Round 6 Segeyaro 42 61 -19

Round 7 Hunt 17 53 -36

Total 304 413 -109

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My average captaincy score is 43.4, so rather than getting an extra Corey Parker, I have been getting an extra Joel Thompson, and nobody wants to have Joel bloody Thompson stinking their team up.

None of these players sustained their bad score from the week I captained them, some bounced back with their best score of the year the week after I captained them, so all I have succeeded on doing is losing points. Over the course of the first seven weeks, my captains scored 109 points beneath their season’s average. Coming up bust on captaincy roulette cost me about 1,400 places in the ranks. That is quite significant and also highlights how much of an impact the little things can have on rankings.

Let’s take a look at the structure of my team at round seven for a minute because it is a fairly good illustration of the problem, and one that should be avoided in 2016. My guns over $450k follow, with my concerns at the time:

James Segeyaro – his match conditioning towards the end of games looked poor.

Simon Mannering – he concerned me because his scoring had slid off since round 4.

Ben Hunt – he concerned me because he had just scored 17.

That’s it. Those were my choices. Not having a player like CS9 or Corey Parker created too much doubt and in my quest for points I routinely came up empty.

The take home message - invest in a captain and stick with him rather than chasing scores from lots of different players!

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Fantasy 206 – What are base stats? Understanding what represents a player’s base stats are a pretty important part of assessing the risk of any given player. The broad definition of base stats is that they are the stats you can rely on a player to score week in week out. Most people take the base stats to mean tackles,