stock mkt crash benefit 2011

8/3/2019 Stock Mkt Crash Benefit 2011

1/7

SpecialReportProfitfromtheMarketCrash

August2011

+44(0)2075296370

[email protected] www.primemarkets.co.uk

PrimeReport: ProfitfromtheMarketCrash PreparedbyRichardCurrHeadofDealing

ApparentlyoneofLondonslooterswasaskedashepluckedaplasmaTVfromashopwindowwhathisreasonswereforlootingstolengoods.

Hereplied,Iwanttogetmytaxesback.

Fortunatelyfortraders,thefinancialmarketsdoproviderathermorelegitimate,andhopefullylessriskymethodsofprofitingfromthecurrent

meltdowninthestockmarket,andtheconsequentialmassiveincreaseinvolatility.Ofcoursethelasttimewidespreadriotskickedoffacross

theUKsbigcities,itwasatthebottomoftheearly1980seconomiccycle,(almostexactly30yearsgo)soinonesensethecivilunrestdoes

provideuswithasortofbuyingsignal,albeitacrudeone.

AnIronicSetUp:

The fall back by the FTSE 100 below 5,000 into bear market territory during

intraday

trading

on

August

9

th

2011

came

almost

exactly

4

years

to

the

day

that

the current financial crisis started. It could be argued that it began when the

Credit Ratings Agencies valued Collaterized Debt Obligations (CDO) based on

subprimemortgagesatAAAratingswhentheyshouldhavebeenratedatjunk

certainlygiventhesubsequentcollapse intheU.S.housingmarket.This ledto

thestartoftheCreditCrunch,kickedoffbyBNPParibas,thatsawthebanksthat

reliedonthemoneymarketsforliquidity(ratherthanhavingsubstantialassets

oftheirown)starvedofcashandlikeNorthernRock intheUKeffectivelywent

bust. Thedominoeffectdragged thestockmarketdown in20072009,and

from 6,500 on the FTSE 100 tojust 3,500 at worst soon after the collapse of big U.S. names such as Lehman

BrothersandBearStearns.

Rathergenerously, and toavoidpanic in the financialmarkets and in thestreetsas well aspreventing a recession turn into a 1930s style

depression,WesternGovernmentsthrewmassiveamountsofcashat theproblem,enablingacolossalbailout forRBS(RBS)andaGordon

Brownapproved

shotgun

marriage

for

Lloyds

Banking

(LLOY)

with

HBOS.

This

deal

effectively

resulted

in

Lloyds

snatching

defeat

from

the

jaws

ofvictory:priortothatthebankhadsuccessfullybalanceditsbooksandmanageddebtlevels.

Theeffectofthebailoutswasinitiallyastabilisingone,withstockmarketstypicallyrallying50percentandmorefromthelowsofMarch2009

toJuly2011.However,theproblemwasthatwhileshareswerepricinginareturntogrowth,therealworld,(especiallyintheUKandEurope)

wasstrugglinginmanycasestoachievequarterlyGDPgainsof0.5percentevenwithinterestratestypicallyat1percentorless.Thisledto

theconceptofQuantitativeEasing(QE)ormoneyprinting,aninflationaryefforttostimulategrowthandeffectivelydevaluedebt.

Cynics will probably say now that all this did was create a bogus twoyear stock market rally, and left Governments mired up to their

eyeballsindebt.Ratherthanavoidingthefeareddepressionand/orthecivilunrest,weappeartoinadvertentlyorotherwisehavesetupthe

perfectconditionsforboth.Evenworse,afterthreeyearsofQEandwiththeECBstrugglingtokeeptheEurozonedreamalive,mostofthe

financialammunitionappearstohaverunout.Evenworsetheauthorities theFederalReserve,BankofEngland,IMFandthepoliticalsphere

ingeneral,nowgivetheimpressionofbeingeitherimpotentorincompetentorboth,astheyattempttoamanageseriesofonceinalifetime

eventsallofwhichhavekickedoffwithinaveryshortspaceoftime.ThelossoftheU.S.AAACreditRatinghasbeenoneofthetriggersforthe

currentmarket

mayhem,

but

it

also

underlines

the

end

of

an

era

of

relative

stability

and

the

beginning

of

the

search

for

anew

paradigm

to

replaceit.AlthoughtheCreditCrunchpromptedthenowoverusedclichPerfectStorm,fewwoulddisagreethatwearenowinthemiddle

ofsuchanevent,with$7tlnlostinstockvaluesaroundtheworldinaweektostartAugust.

Source:Sharescope


2/7

AggravatingFactors:AswellasthelossfortheU.S.ofitsriskfreeCreditRating,partofthereasonforthediveinsentimentinthesummerof2011wasthemanner

inwhichthedowngradecame.Forweeksgoing intotheAugust2nd

deadlinetherewaspoliticalwranglingoftheworstkind inWashington

with the Republicans effectively playing politics with the debt default issue, and taking delight in watching President Obama and the

Democratssquirm.Intheendthemarketsinitiallyralliedonwhatwaseffectivelyapeaceinourtimedealof$2tlnincutsandtheliftingof

the$14.3tlndebtceiling.Unfortunately,inMarchratingsagencyS&PhadalreadywarnedtheU.S.thatitwasonnegativewatchregardingits

AAACreditRating,andwhennoticeofadowngradetoAAaonAugust6th

wasissued,theU.S.authoritiestriedinvaintosuggestthattheS&P

calculationwas

$2tln

out.

The

consequential

psychological

blow

was

as

bad

or

worse

than

any

real

issue

with

the

rating

level,

and

coupled

withtheembarrassmentofnolongerbeingtopnotch,manyinvestorshavestillbeenwrongfootedbythedealgoingthrough,followedbythe

lossoftherating.

Itiscertainlythefunctionofthepoliticalprocess,orperhapsmorecorrectly,thelackofeffectivenesswhichhascomeintofocusnotonlyfrom

the U.S. but also in many other areas of the world. Indeed, it could very wellbe that history names 2011 as the year of the social media

revolution(Facebook/Twitter),ayearthatstartedwiththeinitiallypeacefulArabSpring,buteventuallydeliveredallthetraditionalproblems

of armed conflict, rioting and lawlessness. At the same time politicians have apparently maintained their gentlemanly agenda of

entertaining/networkingwithbillionairebusinessman(highlightedbythehackingscandal)andbeencaughttakingrelaxingforeignsummer

holidaysasLondonburnsand the financialsystem unravels. Allof this leaves theestablishmentsshortcomingsandcurrent tribulations

exposedforalltosee,andsusceptibletodistortionbythecriminalelementintoanexcuseforcriminality,helpedalongbyanoverstretched

policeforcetheresultofthepublicspendingsqueeze.ItwillbeinterestingtoseehowthethusfarimmuneprimeLondonhousingmarketis

affectedbytheworldwidecoverageofthechaos.

TheMarkets:GreedandTheFearGauge:The story of 2011 to date is one of greed, as investors and traders have

jumpedonthebandwagonchasingtheprospectofeconomicrecovery,and

fear, as they find the event has been stalled or delayed indefinitely as

nationsjugglepolicyandbudget inanattempttoguardagainstrecession.

More than anything the current trading environment highlights the way

thatsomanyofthecertaintiesthatcouldbereliedonhaveonebyone

disappeared.ThestatusoftheU.S.Dollarastheworldsreservecurrencyis

crumbling, the boom / bust of the economic cycle seems to have been

replaced with a Japan style rolling recession or at least stagnation, while

nearzero interestratesandcompetitivecurrencydevaluationmeansthat

justsittingonthesidelinesiseffectivelyamoneylosingexercise.

What is perhaps somewhat surprising is that the VIX index of volatility

(fear)

exceeded

the

March

/

Japan

Earthquake

peak,

but

was

already

gapping higher in the second half of July almost as if those in the know were anticipating the S&P U.S.

downgradeandthe Italy/Spaindefault rumours.Andjustas in2007,we are inAugust oneof thequietest

monthsoftheyearwithmanyplayerscaughtinamixofasummerholidayfluxandgenuinedoubtsoverwhichdirectiontheirportfoliosare

heading.Allofthissimplyservestoexaggeratethepriceswings,andeventherelativelylightvolumesarecausingfarbiggerintradayswingsin

stocksandmarketsthantherewouldotherwisebe.Itishardtobelievethatthetimingoftheseeventsseasonwiseismerelyacoincidence

whencompare

Source:BigCharts.com

dto2007.

TradingStrategy:ToGoWith/AgainstTheFlow:Coupledwiththepricevolatility,anotherproblemformarketsastheystartedAugust2011wasanincreaseinconflictingnewsflow/analysis.

Forinstance,theU.S.debtdealagreementshouldhavebeenperceivedasapositivedevelopment,butoncethemarketsandS&Preadthe

fineprint,itprovedtobetheEmperorsNewClothes.TheaftermathofthisandsimilarshockeventssuchasthelowerthanexpectedU.S.

nonfarm

payroll

numbers

has

left

traders

having

to

decide

between

bargain

hunting

or

catching

afalling

knife.

If

nothing

else,

intraday

blue

chipsharepriceswingsofupto10percentcanmeanthatevenifatradelongorshortwilleventuallyprovetobecorrect,thebumpyjourney

willprobablybetoounappealingformosttostomach.Onthisbasisthecorrectstrategymaybetosimplywaitforthedusttosettleonthe

currentturmoil.

+44(0)2075296370



3/7

+44(0)2075296370


ditions.

ely.

But the problem of course with suchan approach is that it can potentially mean missing out on perfectly good companies and dividends,

whichcannow be pickedupator nearyear lows. Those traders bearish ofstockswillbe familiarwith the fact thatmarkets fall farmore

quicklythantheyrise,apointreflectedbyoilplaysBP(BP.),BGGroup(BG.)andCairnEnergy(CNE) allofwhichhadlost20percentormore

oftheirvalueattheendofJuly/beginningofAugust,mirroringthedeclineinCrudeOilbythesameamountduringthisperiodtowards$80a

barrel.

RiskManagement:Of course, when markets are moving the goalposts this way, as far as a trading

positionmightbemanaged,a3percentstoplossonastockCFDwillberendered

almostmeaningless,aswouldbea20or30pointstoplossonaFTSE100CFD.The

keyistolowerpositionsizeandleverageenoughtoensurethatpricegyrationsdo

not lead to a premature stop loss hit. A couple of examples of how this feeds

throughintoreallifetradingistolookattheFTSE100overtheweekbetweenthe

U.S.debtdealrallyandtheaveragetruerangeapopularmeasureofvolatility.It

canbeseeninthecaseoftheFTSE100howthe indicatormorethanquadrupled

from near 20 in the mark up on the debt deal on August 1st to hit a peakjust

before the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement that shortterm interest

rateswouldbeheldforthenext2yearsonAugust9th.Thedirectimplicationhere

is that either your stop loss should be four times greater than usual, or your

positionsizeshouldbeasmuchfourtimeslessthaninnormalcon

ApartfromtheobviousmaulingthatsharesinminerRioTinto(RIO)tookoverthenightmareweektostartAugust,

it can be seen how if anything for individual stocks the volatility goalposts are

moved in an even more extreme way than indices, with the ATR also stretching

towards100.Ofcoursethecompensationinbothsituationsisthatwhereasunder

normalconditionsonemightbestrugglingtoclip20pointsoutoftheFTSE100or

50p out of Rio, currently 100 points or 200p is possible. As is usually the case,

thereisatradeoffintermsofquiet/volatilemarketsandwhatcanbeachievedin

eachrespectiv

FTSE100Stocks:PostU.S.DebtDeal/DowngradeWinners/Losers:The firstweekofAugust2011sawsuchextremepriceaction, itseemsappropriate toestablishtherealwinners

andlosers,andwheretheopportunitiesmaylie.TheratherpredictablewinnershavebeenthebigGoldplaysastheyellowmetalturnsinto

theonlytrustedstoreofvalue/reservecurrency.However,betweenGoldminerRandgoldResourcesandtheexposurerealorimaginedto

politicalproblemsintheIvoryCoast,andGold/SilverminerFresnillo(FRES)basedinMexico,itmaybesensibletoplumpforLatinAmerica

ratherthanWestAfricaonceanyinitialsetbackinFresnilloisoutoftheway.

Given the disturbances in some of the UKs High Streets it may be surprising to choose Marks & Spencer (MKS) as a bargain hunting

opportunity,butsofartheshareshaveaddedtotheirmultiplesupportpointsnear320p goingbacktothestartof2010.Thisalongwiththe

5percentplusyieldmeansthatthesharescanbeclassedasavalueplay.

Source:eSignal.com

Source:eSignal.com


4/7

+44(0)2075296370


ontheFTSE100.

ar.

AsfarastherestoftheFTSE100outperformersareconcerned,the list is

dominated by supermarkets, utilities and defensive plays such as

household products group Unilever (ULVR) and tobacco giant Imperial

Tobacco (IMT). Almost all underline the fact that the big dividend payers

are currently regarded as the safe port in a storm, having been stress

testedbyaswift15percentdecline

Onthedownsidewearegenerallyawashwithbasicresourcesplays oil&

gasstocksandminersviewedassensitiveeithertoarecessionintheWest

or a cooling off in China / Far East. One off features on the downside

includesatellitecommunicationsgroupInmarsat(ISAT)onmaritimesector

growth fears, as well as financial services group Hargreaves Lansdown

(HL.), where shares have been hit hard by recent changes by the FSA to

commissionrebaterules.

BuyFresnillo(FRES):1,643p

StopLoss:1,570p

Target:1,900p

RecentSignificantNewsflow:August3

rd: Citi haskept its hold rating forgold andsilvermining giant

Fresnillo,aftera"smallmiss"inhalfyearfigures.Thecompanyreported

USD422m of attributable net profit in the first half of 2011, under

expectationsofUSD467m.Earningspershareof58.8centsweredown

onestimatesof65.2cents. The resultssuggested thatwhile thiswasa

small miss on its numbers, the change from a year ago, driven by

preciousmetalspricesandvolumegrowth,remainsexceptionallygood.

July14th

:Fresnilloannouncedrecordproductionofbothgoldandsilver

inthe

second

quarter

of

2011.

Quarterly

attributable

silver

production

achieved record levels due to the successful startup of commercial

production at the companys Saucito mine. Total silver production was

up8.8percent inthe threemonths to theendofJune,comparedwith

thesameperiodlastye

March1st

:Record levelsofsilverandgoldproduction,andsubstantialprogressatdevelopmentandexploration

sitescombinedwithhighsilverandgoldpricesenabledFresnillotodeliverthebestyearinitshistoryfor2010.Pre

taxprofits in2010rosefromUSD457mtoUSD1.02bnonrevenuesofUSD1.47bn,up73percentonanadjusted

basis.Goldproductionjumped33percentto369,000ounces,whilesilver outputroseby2percentto38.6mounces.Theaveragerealised

priceofsilverincreased40percentto$21.39perounce,whiletheaveragegoldpricereached$1,252.05perounce,a26.6percentincrease

yearoveryear.

FundamentalArgument:

SincetheMarchupdateGoldpriceshaverisenbyover25percent,whileSilverhasnearlydoubled.ThissuggeststhatFresnilloremainsinline

forafresh

profits

bonanza

for

2011,

especially

given

the

latest

hike

in

precious

metals

prices

following

the

U.S.

Credit

Rating

downgrade.

Indeed,thepricingoutlookissostrong,evenmoderateproductionhiccupslookasthoughtheycanbeeasilyabsorbed.

Technicals:

Source:Sharescope

Source:Sharescope


5/7

Fresnilloshareshavebackedoffsharplyfromthe600pplusJuneAugustrallyfrom1,300p.Ideally,theaftermathofthelatestretracement

would take thestock no lower onasustainedbasis than former MarchMayresistanceat 1,630p.Thesuggestedstop loss is the50day

movingaveragecurrentlytrailingat1,590p,withthetargetapartialorevenfullretestoftheinitialAugustintradaypeakat1,967p.

RecommendationSummary:Whilethemajorityofminingsectorplays intheFTSE100havetakenaserioustumbleof late,thedecline inFresnillobacktowardsformer

supportunderlinesthestrongtechnicalpictureandtheprospectofaretestofyearhighsat1,900pplus.Ithelpsthatwithrecordproduction

andrecord

precious

metals

prices;

the

group

has

awide

margin

of

error

when

it

comes

to

significantly

exceeding

2010

profits.

On

this

basis

it

canberegardedasoneofthemostattractiveFTSE100miningsector/preciousmetalsproxies.

BuyMarks&Spencer (MKS):324p

+44(0)2075296370


StopLoss:305p

Target:365pInitially

RecentSignificantNewsflow:July13

th:M&Sreportedgroupsales(excludingVAT)inthe13weeksto2July

were3.2percenthigherthaninthecorrespondingquarterof2010.UKsales,

excludingVAT,rose2.7percentyearonyear,withgeneralmerchandisesales

up0.3percentandfoodsales5.0percenthigherthanayearearlier. Likefor

likesalesintheUKwereflatwhilefoodsalesgrew3.3percentonaLFLbasis.

July

12th:

Matrix

has

maintained

its

buy

rating

with

a

407p

price

target

on

Marks&SpenceraftertheBritishRetailConsortium'sRetailSalesMonitorfor

June came in ahead of estimates.

Likeforlikesalesfellby0.6percent,whiletotalsalesgrewby1.5percent.

May24th

:Marks&Spencerpointedtoincreasedmarketshareinbothclothesandfoodsalesasitpostedpretax

profitsinlinewithexpectationsfortheyearto31March. UnderlyingpretaxprofitstotalledGBP714.3m,upfrom

GBP694.6mthepreviousyearandinlinewithbrokerCharlesStanleyspredictionofGBP714m.RevenuerosetoGBP9.7bnfromGBP9.5bn.

Source:Sharescope

FundamentalArgument:DespiteallthegloomanddoomandthefinancialsufferingofMiddleEnglandoverthepostCreditCrunchperiod,itisclearthatM&Shasbeen

fullypreparedtodealwiththedifficultconditions,achievingmarginandsalesgainsespeciallyinfood.Thisalongwithprofitsdeliveredinline

withCityestimatesmeansthattheflagshipretailerisviewedasasafepairofhandsinanoftfraughtsector.

Technicals:The

brief

dip

on

August

9th

for

M&S

shares

to

314p

was

atemporary

2year

low

for

the

stock.

Nevertheless,

the

rebound

was

strong

enough

onanend of day closebasis tosuggest that theoverall 320p 420p tradingrange remains inplace,and that the initial upsideshouldbe

towardsthe200daymovingaveragecurrentlyfallingthrough370p.

RecommendationSummary:Marks&Spencercombines the attributesof anallroundbullstockplay,notonlysportingap/ebelow10, a yieldabove5percentanda

bounceoff2yearsharepricelows,butalsoaninnateabilitytoboostsalesandmarginsinfood anincreasinglycutthroatareaof retail.Such

multiplepluspointssuggestthattherecent20percentplussharepriceslide ismerelyasympatheticmovedownwiththefall inthestock

marketasawholeratherthanreflectinganyspecificconcernwithM&Ssprospects.


6/7

BuyUnilever (ULVR): 1,871p

+44(0)2075296370


StopLoss:1,840p

Target:2,100p

RecentSignificantNewsflow:August 4

th: Strong growth in emerging markets helped AngloDutch food and

householdgoodsgiantUnileverachievehighersalesandprofitsinthefirsthalf.

However,margins

fell

back

as

price

rises

failed

to

wholly

offset

the

impact

of

higher input costs. Turnover hit EUR22.79bn for the first half, up 4.1 percent

from the same period a year ago, and net profit climbed by 9 percent to

EUR2.4bn.Underlyingsaleswereupby5.7percent,withgrowthof9percentin

Asia, Africa and Central and Eastern Europe and 5.3 percent in the Americas.

WesternEuropeonlyscrappedinwith1.3percent.

May 9th

: Unilever said it has received regulatory clearance to acquire U.S.

personal care and household brands firm, Alberto Culver, after agreeing to sell off the Alberto VO5 and Rave

brandsintheUS.

Source:Sharescope

April 28th

: Unilever reported continued growth in the first quarter of 2011, as turnover rose by 7 percent to EUR10.9bn (GBP9.7bn). The

companysaidallcategoriesaregrowing,drivenbyaparticularlystrongperformanceintheemergingmarkets. Personalcaresalesroseby4.3

percenttoEUR3.5bn,homecaresalesby6percenttoEUR2bn.Inthefoodsdivisiontherewasa2.1percentriseinsalestoEUR3.4bn,while

icecreamandbeveragessaleswereupby4.7percenttoEUR1.9bn.Unileversaysthatrisingoilpricesmeancostinflationwillbearound500

to550basispointsofturnoverin2011

FundamentalArgument:Shares in Unilever have climbed a wall of worry over margin pressures due to the issue of cost inflation, but it is evident that apart from

certain areas of Western Europe, the group has been able to make progress in underlying sales. Helping add positive momentum is the

acquisitionofAlbertoCulver,andspicingupthespeculative interestarerecentrumoursthatthegroupcouldbeabouttobidforormerge

withsectorrivalReckittBenckiser(RB.).

Technicals:SharesinUnileverhaveremainedinarisingtrendchannelfromJuly2010currentlybasedatthe200daymovingaveragelevelof1,908p.The

implication isthatwhilethere isnoendofdayclosebackbelowthetrendline/movingaveragesupport,theupsideshouldbetowardsthe

2010resistancelineprojectionashighas2,100ptakinga68weektimeframe.

RecommendationSummary:UnileverisrecommendedoffthebackofanearlyAugustupdatewhichreassuredthemarketasregardssalesandmargins,andremindedthe

doubtersof

its

new

found

sparkle

as

an

emerging

markets play.

This

along

with

the

fact

that

technical

support

has

remained

in

place

close

to

therising200daymovingaverageat1,908pdespitetherecentstockmarketsetbackssuggests thattheacceleratinguptrendforthestock

towardsthe2,100pzoneremainsverymuchinplace.


7/7

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Contactus:

46BerkeleySquare

Mayfair,London

W1J5AT

www.primemarkets.co.uk

[email protected]

+44(0)2075296370

SalesNoteDISCLAIMER

ThisnotehasbeenissuedbyPrimeMarketsLimitedinordertopromoteitsinvestmentservices.

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beenprepared inaccordancewiththe legalrequirementsdesignedtopromotethe independenceorobjectivityof investmentresearch.Thisdocument isnot

basedupondetailedanalysisbyPrimeMarketsofanymarket;issuerorsecuritynamedhereinanddoesnotconstituteaformalresearchrecommendation,either

expresslyorotherwise.Thisnoteisconfidentialandisbeingsuppliedtoyousolelyforyourinformationandmaynotbereproduced,redistributedorpassedon,

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the factualaccuracy,completeness,orsufficiencyof informationcontainedherein.Thisdocumenthasbeenpreparedby theauthorbasedupon information

sourcesbelievedtobereliableandprepared ingood faith.PrimeMarketsofficers,directorsandemployeesmayownorhavepositions inany investment(s)

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value,eitherfavourableorunfavourable.Securitiesissuedinemergingmarketsaretypicallysubjecttogreatervolatilityandriskofloss.RememberthatCFDsand

otherderivativesaretradingproductsthatuseleverage.Thiscanmagnifyprofitsbutalsolossesandisthereforehigherrisk.Itmaynotbesuitableforeveryone,

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