stock pitch - duke university investment club · 2019-10-26 · stock pitch max lipscomb, jack...
TRANSCRIPT
Stock Pitch
Max Lipscomb, Jack Schrager
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Table of Contents
I. Investment Thesis
II. Industry and Company Overview
III. Core Businesses
IV. Valuation
I. Investment Thesis
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GenCorp (NYSE: GY)
Recommendation: Buy Current Price: $15.31 Price Target: $24.00
GenCorp’s valuable intellectual property, dominant competitive advantages, long term sole source contracts, propulsion
monopoly, and valuable real estate make it a compelling investment based on prevailing market pricing.
Realization of real estate value and development of property
Transformative acquisition and synergies
Increased efforts towards investor relations
CATALYSTS
RISKS
Sequester and reduction in revenue from NASA contracts
Emerging competition (SpaceX)
Lack of experience in real estate development
II. Industry and Company Overview
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Direction of Warfare
1900’s 2013
Small Arms Armored Vehicles
Aircraft Tactical Missiles Autonomous
Weaponry
FUTURE OF US MILITARY
Since 2000, it has been increasingly clear that the U.S. will be unable to devote ground troops to every combat
situation in which we are called to arms
Instead, proxy wars and tactical strike support have been increasingly common methods for the U.S. to protect its
interests overseas
In general, we believe this points to the continued use of medium to large-size liquid-fueled rockets
Purchases of tactical missiles and missile defense will also likely be relatively immune to spending cuts from the
sequester
While we think it is very hard to predict which companies will successfully develop the best explosive configurations
and targeting systems, there is a distinct investment opportunity in rocket propulsion
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Company Background
GenCorp is an aerospace company with two divisions:
Aerojet-Rocketdyne, a supplier of premium rocket
propulsion technologies
Easton, a recently formed group that manages
GenCorp’s real estate holdings
OVERVIEW FINANCIAL OVERVIEW
($ in millions, except per share data)
Common Stock (Ticker GY) $15.31
Outstanding Equity Instruments
Common Stock 59.5
Dilutive Shares from Options 0.0
Total 59.5
Equity Value $910.9
- Cash and Cash Equivalents (169.2)
+ Total Debt 704.6
+ Minority Interest 0.0
Enterprise Value $1,446.3
Metric Multiple
2012A Revenue $1,695.0 0.9x
2013E Revenue 1,775.0 0.8x
2012A EBITDA $205.6 7.0x
2013E EBITDA 226.0 6.4x
Strategic Propulsion Tactical Propulsion
Missile Defense Systems Spacecraft Propulsion
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Rocketdyne Acquisition
Rocketdyne was previously owned by United
Technologies Corp
GenCorp was the only logical strategic buyer
Creates an effective monopoly on medium and large-
sized liquid-fueled rocket engines
“The FTC said that it approved the deal even though
it would give GenCorp a monopoly in the market for
a certain type of high-performance missile defense
interceptor propulsion system, because the Defense
Department wanted to see the transaction go
forward.” -Reuters
Other Transaction Notes:
Acquisition doubles the size of GenCorp
Highly accretive at 4.5x 2013 EBITDAP
Creates economies of scale and complimentary
product offerings
Also ads a significant debt load to the pro forma
entity
/
OVERVIEW
GenCorp United
Technologies
Rocketdyne
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ACQUISITION DYNAMICS
1. United Technologies sells subsidiary Rocketdyne to raise
cash for Goodyear acquisition
2. Department of Defense mandates acquisition despite
creation of propulsion monopoly
3. GenCorp pays United Technologies Corp. $411mm,
which was financed through raising debt
4. An additional $55mm will be paid upon acquisition of
UTC’s 50% ownership in R.D. Amross (joint venture with
a Russian Company)
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Debt Financing: $411mm
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R.D. Amross (50% stake)
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III. Core Businesses
Programs 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS)
Tactical Tomahawk
Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3)
Javelin
TOW
Standard Missile Propulsion
Atlas V
THAAD
Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV)
Standard Missle-3
Orion
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Stability of Contract Revenue
= New Product
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Customer Breakdown
END USER
23%
21%
21%
20%
15% All Other
ULA
Lockheed Martin
Raytheon
NASA
DIRECT CONTRACTOR
59%
39%
2%
Cost Plus
Fixed Price
Other
CONTRACT TYPE DOMINANT COMPETITIVE POSITION
GenCorp’s moat In missile propulsion is impenetrable
GY operates primarily on sole-source, long-term contracts (90%)
Customer emphasis on risk-avoidance
Aerojet has served its two largest customers, Raytheon and
Lockheed for more than 25 years each
Rocketdyne has supplied NASA and ULA for more than 50
years
Long certification process for new market entrants
Wide Range of contracts and work despite few customers
Literally rocket science
28%
24% 17%
15%
11% 5% U.S. Air Force
NASA
MDA
U.S. Army
Other U.S. Govt
Commercial
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Propulsion Monopoly
Company Parent Propulsion Type Propulsion Application
Aerojet GenCorp Inc. Solid, Liquid, Air-Breathing, Electric Launch, In-Space, Tactical
Alliant Techsystems Alliant Techsystems Solid, Air-Breathing Launch, Tactical, Strategic, Missile
Defense
Astrium European Aeronautics Defense &
Space Co. Solid, Liquid In-Space
Avio Avio S.p.A Solid, Liquid Launch, In-Space
Electron Technologies L-3 Communications Corp. Electric In-Space
Moog Moog Liquid, Electric In-Space, Missile Defense
Northrop Grumman Space Tech
Northrop Grumman Liquid In-Space
Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne United Technologies Corp. Liquid, Air-Breathing, Electric Launch, In-Space, Missile Defense
Safran Safran Liquid Launch, Tactical
SpaceX SpaceX Liquid Launch, In-Space
Nammo Talley Nammo Talley Solid Tactical
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GAAP & Customer Subsidies
($ in millions, except per share data)
Most pension expenses are non-cash and subsidized
Aerojet’s legacy pension expenses are non-cash
until 2015 due to MAP-21
Post-2015 pension expenses are heavily subsidized
by the gov’t due to CAS 412 and CAS 413
PV of savings: $830m (using 7% discount rate)
R&D Expenses are mostly customer subsidized:
GenCorp pays for between 6 and 10% of R&D costs
High percentage of cost-plus contracts mitigates margin
risk and the chance of projects going over budget
HIGH, STABLE CASH EARNINGS YEAR PENSION EXPENSE
2013 $131.6
2014 129.3
2015 126.5
2016 123.2
2017 119.8
2018-2022 544.8
YEAR GENCORP R&D CUSTOMER R&D
2010 $17.4 $283.7
2011 27.4 276.0
2012 30.3 271.8
YEAR SALES TO U.S. GOV. % OF SALES
2010 $936.9 92%
2011 855.8 93%
2012 786.1 94%
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Javelin Missile
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIlROqW0fnc
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Management Guidance
(1): http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40888/000092189513001268/ex991to8k07319_06162013.htm
WARREN BOLEY (CEO)
Developed solar electric propulsion technologies that were already being used to power "some very big" U.S.
government satellites that he was not allowed to identify
Seeing a huge number of orders from satellite manufacturers
Dramatically lowers the cost of launching satellites into orbit by reducing fuel
Fuel is often the biggest weight item on a satellite
Developed a silent propulsion system
Useful on unmanned planes
Developed a hypersonic motor
All three major competitors - Boeing Co (BA.N), Raytheon Co (RTN.N) and Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) – used
the motor in rival bids to design a next-generation missile
Allows missiles to travel at Mach 4, or four times the speed of sound,
The new technology could generate up to $10 billion in new weapons sales in coming years
“It's a game changer. It's revolutionary. It's not just 10 percent more,” Boley said, adding that he expected the solar propulsion system to generate billions of dollars in orders. Warren Boley, CEO of GenCorp (1)
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Real Estate
($ in millions, except per share data)
PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT
GenCorp owns approximately 12,200 acres of land in the Sacramento metropolitan area
6,000 acres are undergoing entitlement and have been zoned for development
Development Agreement completed in 2011 for 1,400 acres; project fully entitled
Easton expected real estate development:
6,044 acres
18,508 housing units
12.7 million square feet of commercial and retail
ESTIMATE OF VALUE LAND LOCATION
Based on going rates for commercial and residential
real estate in the Sacramento market:
Estimated Land Value: $400mm-$1b
Current Enterprise Value: $1.45b
Bear Base Bull
Pretax $367 $611 $857
Tax $116 $202 $288
After Tax $251 $410 $569
Sacramento, CA
IV. Valuation
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Valuation – Discounted Cash Flow
($ in millions, except per share data)
Share Price Calculation
PV of FCF $2,062.8
+ Cash 170.0
-Debt (504.0)
+ Real Estate 410.0
- Pension Lia (80.0)
- Environ Lia (60.0)
Equity Value $1,998.8
Diluted Shares Out. 83.3
Share Price $24.00
Assumptions
Prepetual FCF Growth Rate 1.0%
2014-18 Revenue Growth Rate 3.0%
WACC 11.0%
FCF Calculation
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Terminal Value
Revenue $1,850.0 $1,905.5 $1,962.7 $2,021.5 $2,082.2
Unlevered FCF Margin 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 10.3% 10.5%
Post-Tax Synergies $16.3 $16.3 $16.3 $0.0 $0.0
Free Cash Flow 192.0 197.3 202.7 208.8 219.2 2,214.0
PV FCF $173.0 $160.1 $148.2 $137.5 $130.1 $1,313.9
FCF Calculation
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Terminal Value
Revenue $1,850.0 $1,850.0 $1,850.0 $1,850.0 $1,850.0
Unlevered FCF Margin 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 10.4% 10.6%
Post-Tax Synergies $16.3 $16.3 $16.3 $0.0 $0.0
Free Cash Flow 192.0 192.0 192.0 192.0 195.7 1,779.1
PV FCF $173.0 $155.8 $140.4 $126.5 $116.1 $1,055.8
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No Growth Valuation
‘($ in millions, except per share data)
Share Price Calculation
PV of FCF $1,767.6
+ Cash 170.0
-Debt (504.0)
+ Real Estate 410.0
- Pension Lia (80.0)
- Environ Lia (60.0)
Equity Value $1,703.6
Diluted Shares Out. 83.3
Share Price $20.45
Assumptions
Prepetual FCF Growth Rate 0.0%
2014-18 Revenue Growth Rate 0.0%
WACC 11.0%