stoeckl - gallant knight or spanish galleon 30 sept 2013 · gallant knight or spanish galleon?...
TRANSCRIPT
3/10/2013
1
Northern Development: Gallant Knight or Spanish Galleon?
Natalie StoecklSchool of Business & The Cairns Institute
Coalition’s 2030 vision for developing Northern Australia, p 30
Some possible underlying premises
1. Tourism, Agriculture, Mining and Defence are key ‘Northern’ industries
3/10/2013
2
Key Industries in Queensland
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000QLD
, GVA Chain Volume m
easure
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, water & wasteservicesConstruction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation & food services
Transport, postal & warehousing
Information, media &telecommunicationsFinance & insurance services
Rental, hiring & real estateservices
Data source: dXtime, ABS State Accounts, Table a522o‐25 Industry Gross Value Added: QLD ‐Chain Volume Measures
Which industries are most important in Australia’s north?
The Government Admin & Defence; Health; and Education sectors provide the
largest share or employment (on average 25 percent of persons)
Agriculture employs 11.5 percent of people
Mining, retail and construction, employ around 4 percent
Significant differences across space
Tourism is concentrated in a few ‘urban’ centres
So too is defence
Intensive agriculture concentrated near water, good soil and
(normally) close to markets or transport
Mining and manufacturing concentrated near minerals
Larson, S. and Aleaxndridis, K., 2009. Socio‐economic profiling of tropical rivers. Townsville: CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems.
3/10/2013
3
Stoeckl, N and Stanley, O, (2007), “Key Industries in Australia’s Tropical Savanna”, Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, 13(3): 255 ‐ 286
Largest sector of employment in the TS region – by postcodeData Source: ABS CDATA 2001
Coalition’s 2030 vision for developing Northern Australia, p 30
2. Growth is the primary goal (more is better)
Some possible underlying premises
1. Tourism, Agriculture, Mining and Defence are key ‘Northern’ industries in some regions
3/10/2013
4
More is better ….?
– There is no such thing as a free lunch
(to get rich, you must give something up – leisure, clean air ?)
Economics 101, lecture 1
– GDP is not a good measure of well‐being
GDP may have risen steadily for the last 50 years, but what of ‘genuine’ progress?
Kubiszewski, I., Costanza, R., Franco, C., Lawn, P., Talberth, J., Jackson, T., Aylmer, C., (2013), “Beyond GDP: Measuring and achieving global genuine progress”, Ecological Economics, 93:57‐68
3/10/2013
5
So … there is a difference between economic and Uneconomic growth1
• Whether or not development is deemed to be ‘economic’
depends upon what people are (or are not) willing to give
up for …
… i.e. it depends upon people’s priorities or ‘values’.
• What do we know of the priorities of Northern Australian
Residents?
1 After Daly HE and Farley J (2004): Ecological economics: Principles and applications. Island Press, Washington, p231
The importance of the social and cultural (tropical river) values compared to other values
(e.g. using rivers for commercial purposes or to support human life)
Larson, S., Stoeckl, N., Welters, R., and Neil, B, (2013) “Using resident perceptions of values associated with the Australian Tropical Rivers to identify policy and management priorities”, Ecological Economics, 94:8‐19
Relative importance of different ‘values’ associated with Australia’s
Tropical Rivers
3/10/2013
6
Bragging rights
Cheap shipping
Commercial Fishing industry
Mining and Agricultural industries
Indigenous Culture
Tourism industry
Fishing and crabbing
Boating
Undeveloped and uncrowded beaches
Time on beaches
Eating seafood
Preserving the GBRWHA
Clear oceans
Mangroves and wetlands
Iconic marine species
Healthy coral reefs
Healthy reef fish
No visible rubbish
Unimportant Neutral Important Very Important
Residents of the GBR catchment areaHow important are each of the following to your
overall quality of life? (N=1001)Percen
t of responden
ts
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Twice as manyoil spills,
groundings andwaste spills
Twice as muchrubbish on thebeaches and
islands
Ocean changedfrom clear to
murky
Half as muchlive coral
Half as manyfish and less
variety of fish tolook at
Local prices riseby 20%
compared toother places in
Australia
Half as muchchance of
catching fish
Twice as manytourists
Much more satisfied
More satisfied
No affect
Less satisfied
Much less satisfied
Residents of the GBR catchment areaHow would each of the following affect your
overall quality of life ….. ?
3/10/2013
7
Coalition’s 2030 vision for developing Northern Australia, p 30
2. Growth should not always be the primary goal (more is not always better)
3. Growth is inseparable from issues associated with equity and the environment
Some possible underlying premises
1. Tourism, Agriculture, Mining and Defence are key ‘Northern’ industries in
some regions
In Australia’s north, there are significant differences between rich and poor
Larson, S. and Aleaxndridis, K., 2009. Socio‐economic profiling of tropical rivers. Townsville: CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems.
3/10/2013
8
So how do different businesses interact with Indigenous and non‐Indigenous households in
Northern Australia?
• Collected data over several years (and projects) ……..
– Business and household expenditure
• Built an Input‐Output model
• Used the model to see what happens to Indigenous and Non‐Indigenous income
and employment under different development ‘scenarios’
Some insights …
A regional business makes an extra $100 of sales
The business earns an extra $100
The business saves some of that
money
The business pays taxes
The business spends some money on imported goods and services
The business spends some money ‘locally’
$41 re‐spent locally:
Net impact = 141 or 1.41 times the original increase(i.e. the ‘multiplier’ is at least 1.4)
Stoeckl, N., (2010), “Bridging the great divide: Background to and strategies for bridging the divide between Indigenous and Non‐Indigenous economies in Northern Australia”, in Gerritsen (editor), Northern Australia Political Economy, CDU Press.
3/10/2013
9
More insights …Small towns and/or remote areas tend to have small multipliers
Stoeckl, N, (2007), “Using Surveys of Business Expenditure to Draw Inferences about the size of Regional Multipliers: A Case‐study of Tourism in Northern Australia”, Regional Studies, 41(7): 917‐931
Some more insights …
A regional business makes an extra $100 of sales
The business earns an extra $100
The business saves some of that
money
The business pays taxes
The business spends some money on imported goods and services
The business spends some money ‘locally’
$41 re‐spent locally:
Approx:
$15.30 to Non‐Indigenous Households
$1.70 to Indigenous Households
households earn $17; $8 goes to stores; the rest to
other businesses
3/10/2013
10
Businesses
Households
Businesses
Households
Businesses,
Government &
Households
outside the region
It is as if there are two, asymmetrically connected, economic systems in the North
Stoeckl, N., Esparon, M., Stanley, O., Farr, M., Delisle, A., and Altai, Z. (2013) “The great asymmetric divide: An empirical investigation of the link between Indigenous and non‐Indigenous economic systems in Northern Australia”, Papers in Regional Science. doi:10.1111/pirs.12028
With existing economic structures, Indigenous people benefit much less from ‘development’ than non‐Indigenous people. As such, ‘development’ may widen,
rather than close the gap.
That said, different industries have different ‘flow‐on’ effects …
Stoeckl, N., Esparon, M., Stanley, O., Farr, M., Delisle, A., and Altai, Z. (2013) “The great asymmetric divide: An empirical investigation of the link between Indigenous and non‐Indigenous economic systems in Northern Australia”, Papers in Regional Science. doi:10.1111/pirs.12028
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Electricity
Mining
Finance
Trade
Agriculture
Construction
Transport
Government
Culture
Accommodation
Indigenous jobs per $1m expansion of sector
Non‐Indigenous jobs per $1m expansion ofsector
3/10/2013
11
An additional complication:Water is a potentially contentious issue in the North
Stoeckl, N., Stanley, O., Jackson, S., Straton, A, and Brown, V., (2006), An assessment of social and economic values associated with Australia’s Tropical Rivers, Final Report submitted to Land and Water Australia, 173pp. available at: http://www.lwa.gov.au/Programmes/Current_Programmes/Australias_Tropical_Rivers/Final_reports_and_publications/index.aspx
And water may be in most demand,
where it is least available …
Stoeckl, N., Stanley, O., Jackson, S., Straton, A, and Brown, V., (2006), An assessment of social and economic values associated with Australia’s Tropical Rivers, Final Report submitted to Land and Water Australia, 173pp. available at: http://www.lwa.gov.au/Programmes/Current_Programmes/Australias_Tropical_Rivers/Final_reports_and_publications/index.aspx
3/10/2013
12
How does the water‐issue complicate things?
Added water use data to our IO model
Also added hydrological and ecological models, and data from anthropologists
Found that high water‐use industries, put significant strain on monsoonal rivers
– could reduce (or stop) stream flows during dry season
– thus damaging aquatic habitats
– putting Indigenous food sources at risk
– adversely impacting on social /cultural activities and values
(particularly Indigenous people; but also non‐Indigenous)
The ‘cost’ of those side‐effects could, on occasion, outweigh the gains.
Moreover, if costs and benefits are not evenly distributed, the side‐effects of rising
inequality may impose further costs on all.
Stoeckl, N., Jackson, S., Pantus, F., Finn, M., Kennard, M. and Pusey, B. (2013) “An integrated assessment of some of the financial, hydrological, ecological and social impacts of ‘development’ on Indigenous and non‐Indigenous people in northern Australia.” Biological Conservation, 159: 214‐221
If we copy past ‘developments’ we may copy failure
– Development is about more than GDP and money; we should aim for genuine progress
– Social and environmental issues matter (they affect and are affected by ‘development’)
We should ask why the need/desire to develop
• For more business profit?
• For more tax revenue?
• For more jobs (and perhaps less government expenditure on welfare)?
• To improve quality of life? …… of whom?
We could aim to be get ‘better’ instead of just bigger, e.g.
– Starting downstream businesses in tourism
– Looking for efficiencies in meat inspection/processing systems.
– Looking for economies of scope (instead of only scale), e.g.
• Macro‐algae, biofuels and bio‐products project
What of the gallant knight?
3/10/2013
13
From: Dr. Nicholas Paul Principal Research Fellow, Macroalgal Biofuels & BioproductsSchool of Marine & Tropical Biology, James Cook University
, vitamins, food
Acknowledgements
The community of Kowanyama, particularly: Viv Sinnamon, Michael Yam, Anzac Frank, Ravin Greenwool,
Phillip Mango and Stanley Budby
The Daly River Aboriginal Reference Group (ARG), particularly: Mona Liddy and Valemina White
The Mitchell River Traditional Custodian Advisory Group, particularly Ruth Link, and Gerry Turpin
The people of Western Gugu Yalanji, Kuku Juungan, Mbabaram and Wokomin.
Ron Archer – Kuku Djungan TO
The TO’s who worked with us when collecting data
Agnes Page
Kathleen Perry
Bridget Kikitin
Lizzie Sullivan
Darren Birchley ‐ Kowanyama Aboriginal Ranger and Kokoberra TO
Sharon Brady, Western Gugu Yalanji TO
John Grainer, Kuku Djungan TO
Eddie Turpin,Mbabaram TO
Eddie Thomas, Wokomin TO
Estelle Waio – Kuku Djungan TO
All the colleagues (including students past and present) who have contributed directly and indirectly to the thoughts
presented here: the good ideas are theirs; the mistakes are mine.
The funding agencies and institutions who have supported this work. Including
JCU – especially the SOB and the CI; TSCRC, DK CRC, TRaCK, MTSRF, NERP (NAH and TE), LWA, NAWFA