stop guessing!
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
At BSG, we believe in being a proactive force for positive change,
making a difference in everything we do.
Unlocking potential. Accelerating performance
STOP GUESSING!
16th October
Jurie Schoeman
What we know: the world is getting smaller, again…
Convergence…
Everybody wants to own the platform
If you own the platform, you own the customer,
otherwise you’re just a value-added service provider….
Product Service
Value
Best match wins
But what do our customers need?
Nobody knows for sure, not even our
customers….
How have we (mostly) always done things?
HOPE and
The Big
launch Grand plan Blueprint
Dedicate
resources Build
Do we know
enough?
What do we
need to
move to
looking like?
Who?
How much?
What am I
committing to
show as a
return?
Overruns?
Why is it
taking so
long?
Will it
work?
Typically, it takes a long time to get from initial commitments to actual results…
1 2 3
Is this the right thing to do?
Are we managing expectations effectively?
Are we confident that this will work?
We’re smart people after all… so we have good ideas!
Is there another way?
Real customers, in real situations, are often not part of this at all!
Vanity metrics!
So where does this leave us?
Making big bets and
hoping for the best
HOPE
Build confidence iteratively, in line
with investment
Alan Smithee –
78 movie credits
on IMDB.com
Does it work?
There have always only been two good outcomes for any idea
Knowing
NOT Knowing
Thinking it’s still a good idea but not knowing
Knowing
A better way to innovate
If we know that we don’t have all the
answers, why are we surprised that
we get things wrong?
Origin of the Lean Start-up
Recognition that existing businesses execute a business
model, while start-ups look for one!
Start-ups were originally based on valuing
business plans
No customer
feedback built in
No confidence in
5 year view BUSINESS
CASE
Innovation + ongoing validation = invest with confidence
Create Context
What should the
business look like?
Problem /
Solution Fit
Is there a problem
worth solving?
Product /
Market Fit Do we have a solution
that people are
prepared to
pay for?
Scale
Proven market
product - invest in
growth!
Business model canvas Research insights, analytics
UVP Canvas Get out of the building
MVP Develop the smallest
set of functions that you
can use to get feedback
from real people – early
adopters
Proceed with
confidence Get Production, Sales &
Marketing involved
ROI justifiable
1
2
3
4
MEASURE
Pivot
Persevere
The Business Model Canvas
No customer
feedback built in
The Unique Value Proposition Model
No customer
feedback built in 1 – 2: What is the problem
we’re solving, and is it a
problem worth solving?
3 – 4: Will the
market be willing
to pay for our
solution?
everything!
“Get out of the building!”
Test
HYPOTHESIS
How does this
align to our
business model Focus
Is this worth
solving? Let’s test
MVP
REFINE
EXECUTE
Will the market buy it? Let’s build and test with
early adopters
Product
Market fit
Sales and Marketing roadmap
Build the business!
Scale execution
Operations
Find partners
What’s our
next great
idea?
How does the business
fit together?
1. Problem? 2. Solution?
3. Pay?
GREAT
IDEA
BAD
IDEA
STOP GUESSING!
UVP
New concepts to appreciate
MVP
Build /
Measure /
Learn
Pivot or
persevere
Customer
needs
Vanity
metrics
UVP
Failing is
good – as
long as we do
it quickly and
cheaply
Checklist to create confidence
When you’ve validated Problem / Solution fit, and Product / Market fit, then Scale with confidence!
Be prepared to fail and expect to do so!
Include customers in ALL steps
Arm yourself with enough research data to make a start
Then build the smallest thing you need to get real feedback
Use this to validate your ideas, and set direction in terms of pivoting or persevering
Who is doing this already?
In a world of rapidly reducing barriers to entry, 1,000s of start-ups that you haven’t heard of (yet) but who will probably be your next competitors, very, very soon!
References
The Business Model Generation by
Alex Osterwalder
‘Why the Lean Start-up changes
everything’
HBR article by Steve Blank
The Lean Startup by Eric Ries
Running Lean by Ash Maurya
Contact Us
Jurie Schoeman:
C: +27 83 302 7169
T: + 27 11 215 6666
Johannesburg office:
33 Fricker Road
Illovo Boulevard
2196
Talk to us about how we can unlock your potential
www.bsg.co.za
www.bsgdelivers.com