storage market: opportunities, myths and facts · wd controller system sandisk slc nand (3) 1994 16...

Storage Market: Opportunities, Myths and Facts

William C. CainWilliam C. Cain

Western DigitalLake Forest, California, USA

PMRC 2007, Oct. 15-17, Tokyo, Japan

Safe Harbor

This presentation and comments made by WD during this presentation, may contain forward-looking statements concerning: trends and conditions in the storage industry; WD’s expectations for growth in the markets for storage products; revenue forecasts in the storage industry; WD’s unit volume forecasts for HDDs; WD’s beliefs regarding the future of solid state drives, market dynamics product roadmaps; and WD’s beliefs regarding the future and impact of solid state drives on the storage industry in comparison to hard disk drives, including with respect to power, size, performance, capacity, cost/price, reliability and availability. These forward-looking statements are based on current management expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking

© 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 2

results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including: uncertainties related to the development and introduction of products based on new technologies; business conditions and actions by competitors; supply and demand conditions in the storage industry; pricing trends; changes in the availability and cost of storage products; and other risks and uncertainties listed in WD’s recent Form 10-K filed with the SEC on August 28, 2007, to which your attention is directed. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof, and WD undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances.

Myths and Facts

Myth \mith\ n [Gk mythos] (1830):

an unproved or false collective belief


an unproved or false collective belief

Fact \fakt\ n [L factum] (1539):

a truth known by actual experience or observation

Today’s Themes

� Storage is BIG business and is growing

� 2009 SSD thesis of volume notebook adoption is flawed

� Computing storage market battle will be waged on HDD’s turf



$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

Re

ve

nu

e D

oll

ars

(in

mil

lio

ns

)

HDD NAND NOR DRAM CPU/MPU ODD

High-Tech Component Market Opportunities

� CPU/MPU, DRAM, and HDD are largest markets

� Aligning supply to demand allows revenue$ growth


$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E

Re

ve

nu

e D

oll

ars

(in

mil

lio

ns

)

ACTUAL FORECAST

Sources: Gartner – History, Market Share and Forecast, Hard Disk Drives, Worldwide, 2002-2011,Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide: Forecast Database

Disk Drive Forecast: SSD Thesis Starting 2009?

400

500

600

700

Un

its (

in m

illi

on

s)


0

100

200

300

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Un

its (

in m

illi

on

s)

SSD (Gartner) SSD (Samsung) HDD (Gartner)

Sources: Gartner – History, Market Share and Forecast, Hard Disk Drives, Worldwide, 2002-2011, ID Number: G00147803, May 16, 2007; Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide: Forecast Database, ID Number: SEQS-WW-DB-DATA, February 27, 2007; Samsung – SSD forecast

Time Tested PC Storage Attribute Model (circa 1989)


Source: John Squire – Founder and VP Engineering of Conner Peripherals

HDD Industry Knows and Understands SSD

� Pioneering WD & SanDisk work circa 1988-1991 started it all

� Today’s SSDs are repackaged and repurposed CF cards2007High-end 1.8” SSD8 TSOPs, 32 die, MLCEIDE/PATA interfaceInterleaving controller (4)

HHIIGGHH

2003High-end CF (Professional DSC)1 GB, 10 �� 20 �� 40 MB/secEIDE/PATA interfaceInterleaving controller (2 �� 4)

© 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 81990 2000 2010

HH

LLOOWW

& SanDisk

19891 MB SSD2.5” form-factorEIDE/PATA interfaceWD controller systemSanDisk SLC NAND (3)

199416 MB Compact Flash (CF)EIDE/PATA interfaceNon-interleaving controller (1 channel)3 �� 4 TSOPs

2007Low-end 2.5” SSD4 TSOPs, 16 die, SLCEIDE/PATA interfaceNon-interleaving controller

Drive Is Media, Electronics and Firmware

Media CapabilityBit Error Rate (BER)

Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR)

Media CapabilityBit Error Rate (BER)

Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR)

Firmware EnhancementData Protection Algorithms

Firmware EnhancementData Protection Algorithms

Electronics EnhancementError Correction Code type/length (ECC)

Data Encoding/Coding

Electronics EnhancementError Correction Code type/length (ECC)

Data Encoding/Coding

HDDPre-amp

+ SoC

HDDPre-amp

+ SoC


Heads & Disks

Heads & Disks

NAND DieNAND Die

NAND SoC

NAND SoC

Defect ManagementOffline Scanning/Correction

Defect ManagementOffline Scanning/Correction

Defect ManagementWear Leveling

Defect ManagementWear Leveling

Myth #1: Storage Power Critical in Notebooks

250

� Fact: HDD is secondary to battery life at <6% of power budget

� 2.5” HDD off external power supply = powerless storage device

� Battery life with powerless HDD only 11 minutes more than with HDD

� LCD and LSI consume all the power


0

50

100

150

200

250

HDD - Notebook Power HDD - External Power

Ba

tte

ry L

ife

(in

min

ute

s)

186 197

Source: Testing using MobileMark 2005 on HP model 6100 notebook with 512 MB DRAM with Windows XP® and WD Scorpio (160 GB)

Myth #2: SSD Offers Significantly Longer Battery Life than HDD

� Fact: SSD offers only three minutes (2%) more battery life than HDD

� HDD is secondary to battery life at <6% of power budget

� LCD and LSI consume all the power

140

160134 137


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

HDD - Notebook Power SSD - Notebook Power

Ba

tte

ry L

ife

(in

min

ute

s)

134 137

Source: Testing using MobileMark 2005 on Gateway MX6442 notebook with 1024 MB DRAM with Windows XP

WD Scorpio 160 GB EIDE/PATA SanDisk 32 GB EIDE/PATA

Myth #3: SSD Offers Significantly Faster Cold Boot Time

� Fact: SSD offers only three seconds (8%) faster boot time than HDD

35

40

45

50

Co

ld B

oo

t T

ime

(in

se

co

nd

s) 40.9 37.8


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

HDD SSD

Co

ld B

oo

t T

ime

(in

se

co

nd

s)

Source: Testing using MobileMark 2005 on Gateway MX6442 notebook with 1024 MB DRAM with Windows VistaTM Ultimate

WD Scorpio 160 GB EIDE/PATA SanDisk 32 GB EIDE/PATA

Myth #4: NAND (HHD or SSD) is the Solution to Faster Boot Time

� Fact: DRAM is the solution to fastest boot time through use of Windows VistaTM default power mode

� DRAM is much faster than SSD/HHD/HDD

70.170

80Cold Boot from HDD

Vista Sleep - Warm Boot from DRAM


34.1 33.9

48.3

41.2

51.255.4

4.4 4.3 4 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

XP Pro

(SP2)

XP Home

(SP2)

Vista Home

Basic

Vista Home

Premium

Vista

Ultimate

Vista

Business

Vista

Enterprise

Bo

ot

Tim

e (

in s

ec

on

ds)

Source: WD testing in HP Pavilion dv9120us Notebook PC, 2 GB DRAM and WD Scorpio 160 GB HDD

Myth #5: Windows Vista Sleep Results in Unacceptable Battery Life

� Fact: Windows Vista Sleep is a fantastic feature if notebook is recharged every 1-2 days

60%

70%


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

24 Hours 48 Hours

Ba

tte

ry L

ife

%

Source: WD testing with Home Basic, HP Pavilion dv9120us notebook PC, 2 GB of DRAM and WD Scorpio 160 GB HDD

� Fact: Human attributes determine form factors� LCD and keyboard

� 1.8" (0.8% of market) would be popular today if size & weight mattered

� Time-tested adage

� “Use the biggest HDD form-factor that fits inside the box”

Myth #6: HDD Size & Weight Critical in Notebooks


HDD<2% of Notebook Volume<3% of Notebook Weight

Sources: TrendFocus; calculations based on an HP Pavillion dv9120 notebook computer.

Are SSDs Really Faster?

Lab Tested**Using standard industry benchmark: PCMark05, IOMeter, WinBench99


http://www.anandtech.com/showdoc.aspx?i=2982&p=1 http://www.dramexchange.com/WeeklyResearch/Post/1/536.aspx

Super-Talent Brand 16 GB, 2.5-inch

Transcend 8 GB WD Scorpio 250 GB SanDisk 32 GB

SanDisk 32 GB, 2.5-inch

Third Party SSD Reviews

2007 SSD: High-End vs. Low-End SSD

SSD Type: Low-endTranscend 8 GB

High-endSanDisk 32 GB


Architecture: Non-interleaved Interleaved

Floor Configuration: 1 die 4 die

DRAM Buffer: None Optional

Interleaved SSD

Myth #7: SSD Performance Faster in Random

� Fact: SSDs faster at random reads, not random writes

� SSD writes slower due to media and wear-leveling overhead

� HDD has write cache to minimize latency impact


0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Write 1

Read 1

IOPS

WD Scorpio 250 GB

Transcend 8 GB

SanDisk 32 GB

Source: IOMeter

Random

Read 1 Block

Random

Write 1 Block

46374637

1212

Myth #8: SSD Performance Faster in Sequential

� Fact: HDD is faster in sequential writes, most reads� Interleaving improves SSD sequential performance

�HDD has much higher read/write sequential transfer rates than single NAND die

Read 1 SanDisk 32 GB Transcend 8 GB WD Scorpio 250 GBSequential

Read 1 Block


0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Write 128

Write 1

Read 128

Data Transfer (MB/s)

Read 1 Block

Sequential

Read 128 Block

Sequential

Write 1 Block

Sequential

Write 128 Block

Source: IOMeter

Myth #9: SSD Performance Faster in Notebooks

� Fact: High-end SSDs competitive, low-end not� High-end SSD excels in read-intensive applications

� HDD excels in write-intensive applications

� HDD-NAND Hybrid architectures target best of both worlds, but at added cost

XPXP Startup 90/10


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Virus

General

File

App

XP

Data Transfer (MB/s)

SanDisk 32 GB Transcend 8 GB WD Scorpio 250 GB

Source: PC Mark 05

Virus Scan

General

HDD Usage

File Copying

Application

Loading Re

ad

/Write

%

90/10

83/17

50/50

60/40

99.5/.5

Myth #10: SSD Performance Faster for High-end

� Fact: SSDs slower when using high-end applications� Low-end applications tend to be read-intensive

� High-end applications tend to be write-intensive

� Writes are the Achilles heel of NAND/SSD in all applications

WD Scorpio 250 GB


0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

High-End

Business

KB/sec.

Transcend 8 GB

SanDisk 32 GB

Source: WinBench 99

Business Disk

WinMark

High-End Disk

WinMark

Myth #11: NAND Delivers Higher Areal Density

� Fact: HDD delivers higher areal density


From Forecasted Industry Trends by IDC (HDD) and ITRS (NAND)

Key Roadmap Delivery Elements for NAND

Process Technology

Cell Size Bits/cell 2D to 3D


Process Technology

Slowing to two Year

Double (41%)

Cell Size Already

Minimized

>2 Bits/Cell Enters Across

CY08-10

3D Unlikely in Timeframe

Source: www.asml.com: various customers of ASML

Technology Push: Increasing Process Complexity

� Current NAND technology may approach practical limits in ~4 generations (~20nm) at ~256Gbit

� NAND Tech. Challenges� Lithography

� New materials

� Tight process tolerances


� Tight process tolerances

� High aspect ratios, STI fill

� NAND Device Challenges� Parasitic capacitive coupling

� Vpg >20V on chip

� Reduced number of electrons on floating gate

Source: SanDisk: NAND at Center Stage, Eli Harari, Chairman and CEO, SanDisk, August 8, 2007, Flash Memory Summit

Bit Cell Size: HDD vs. NAND

HDD has a Smaller Cell Area for a Given Feature Size


NAND Logical Scaling: SLC -> MLC

MLCMLCMLCMLC----2222




Sources: SanDisk: NAND at Center Stage, Eli Harari, Chairman and CEO, SanDisk, August 8, 2007, Flash Memory Summit

Micron Technology, Inc.: Micron: Flash Memory Technology Direction, Jim Cooke, Director, Applications Engineering, Micron Technology, May 2, 2007,

WinHEC Conference

Features SLC MLC-2

Bits per cell 1 2

ECC (per 512 bytes) 1 4+

Endurance (ERASE/PROGRAM cycles) <100K <10KtR (READ operation) 25µs 50µstPROG (PROGRAM operation) 200-300µs 600-900µstBERS (ERASE operation) 1.5-2ms 3ms

SLCSLCSLCSLC

� Most SSDs now use SLC for performance and reliability

� Only MLC can challenge HDD capacity at cost$

� 2 bit MLC spec is 10% of SLC; what is the 3/4 bit MLC spec?

100K

>1016

Ou

t C

yc

les

NAND Reliability Challenges


1 bit SLC 2 bit MLC 3 bit MLC 4 bit MLC HDD

10K

1K

0.1K?

Wri

te W

ea

r-O

ut

Cyc

les

Sources: Micron Technology, Inc.: Flash Memory Technology Direction, Jim Cooke, Director, Applications Engineering, Micron Technology, May 2, 2007,

WinHEC Conference

??

NAND

NAND

NAND Solution Cost: Roadmap vs. Market Dynamics

160 GB 250 GB 320 GB 500 GB $60 / $70 / $80

8 GB 16 GB 32 GB 128 GB $40 / $80 / $1208 Die8 Die

Market Dynamics


D

Value

D

Value

80 GB 120 GB 160 GB 250 GB $35 / $45 / $55

4 Die 4 GB 8 GB 16 GB 64 GB $20 / $40 / $60

1 Die 1 GB 2 GB 4 GB 16 GB $5 / $10 / $15

2HCY06 2HCY07 2HCY08 2HCY09

4 Die4 Die

1 Die1 Die

Supply > DemandSupply ~ DemandDemand > Supply

Assume ThisAssume This

CY09 SSD Availability: Build $6B Fab?

2010 SSD Forecast

90M SSDs

720M Die per year

95% yield

1.7M wafers per year

Replace 276B GB of HDD

800M SSDs

17B Die per year

95% yield

38M wafers per year


$6B$6B

>$6B>$6B

Toshiba/SanDisk Yokkaichi Fab

Toshiba/SanDisk Yokkaichi Fab

1.7M wafers per year

$6B investment

38M wafers per year

~$190B investment

Source: WD Analysis

Time-tested PC Storage Attribute Model (circa 1989)

Secondary. HDD is <3% of notebook weightSecondary. HDD is <3% of notebook weight

Secondary. HDDs <6% of notebook powerSecondary. HDDs <6% of notebook power

Secondary. HDDs barely audible at 22 dBASecondary. HDDs barely audible at 22 dBASecondary. LCDs break firstSecondary. LCDs break first


Source: John Squire – Founder and VP Engineering of Conner Peripherals

ROI to invest billions of dollars in NAND fabs?

ROI to invest billions of dollars in NAND fabs?

Secondary. HDD is <2% of notebook volumeSecondary. HDD is <2% of notebook volume

Can SSD last in computing apps?Can SSD last in computing apps?

HDDs are the clear winnerHDDs are the clear winner

HDDs are the clear winnerHDDs are the clear winner

Only high-end SSD challenges HDDOnly high-end SSD challenges HDD

Conclusions

� SSDs offer:

� Two classes

� Low-end = lower capacity, lower cost, lower performance

� High-end = low capacity, high cost, high performance

� Performance

� Fast reads


� Fast reads

� Slow writes

� Similar battery life

� Unproven reliability

� Limited availability

� Storage is a BIG business: $88 billion annually

� 2009 SSD thesis of volume notebook adoption is flawed


storage market: opportunities, myths and facts · wd controller system sandisk slc nand (3) 1994 16...

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