storm surge prediction in vietnam -...
TRANSCRIPT
Storm Surge Prediction in Vietnam
By: Nguyen Ba Thuy1, Lars R. Hole2, Nils Melsom Kristensen2, Johannes
Röhrs2 and Pham Khanh Ngoc1
1VietnamNational Center for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) 2Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MetNo)
Contents
1. Typhoon and storm surge in Vietnam
2. Storm surge prediction – Application ROMS Model
3. Future work
Large and Complicate Tide
Typhoon (June-November)
North- East Monsoon (November-March)
South - East Monsoon (June-October)
Geographic and climate effect
Typhoon in Vietnam
- There are about 10-12
typhoons and 5-6 affect
to land.
Storm distribution in South China Sea
Storm numbers monthly attacking
Vietnam coast in 53 years
Typhoon and storm surge in Vietnam
Track of typhoon in 2013
Total: 13 typhoons
Strong Haiyan typhoon
Land fall the coast at
Vietnam at low tide
- No inundation
Pressure variation
Track
Damage due to typhoon
Both Typhoon No 10 and11
(2013): 25 people die, loss
1800 billions VND ( 90 million
USD)
7 death and 43 injury during
Sonting (2012) typhoon affect,
with maximum wind speed up
to 47m/s, central pressure of
945 hPa. Loss 75000 billion
VND (375 million USD)
Television tower was collapsed by high wind force
Honla breakwater was broken by high wave (up to 5m)
Damage due to typhoon
Inundation due to high tide and heavy rain at Doson in Typhoon No4
Damage due to typhoon
High Vulnerable storm surge
(abundant typhoon +
shallow water)
Less Vulnerable storm surge
(rare typhoon + deep water)
Less Vulnerable storm surge
(shallow water +rare typhoon)
Number of
Typhoon
Typhoon and storm surge in Vietnam
Storms and surges along Vietnam coast
Storm surge in Vietnam coastal
storm surge in 2013
Typhoon No 2 (land fall at high tide,
surge height: 0.7m-inundation Typhoon No 10-Wutip (strong-Surge height:
1.3m at low tide)
Typhoon No 11-Nari (strong-Surge height: 1.5m at low tide)
In 2013: 13 typhoons.
Three generated hight
surge on coast
Two dimensional long wave equations + Swan model
SuWAT (Surge Wave and Tide) Model-Operational Model
Open bounday condition: NAO.99b, NAO.99Jb models-
http://www.miz.nao.ac.jp/staffs/nao99/README_NAOTI
DE_En.html).
Effect of
tide and
wave are
considered
Storm surge prediction in Vietnam
- Wind and Pressure Model:
+ Typhoon Model: Empirical model
2
0)/(1
)(rr
PPPrP c
(Fujita)
Storm surge prediction in Vietnam
50021 )sinsincos(cos
)sincoscos(sin r
ty
tx
g
g
y
xe
v
vc
V
Vc
v
vV
+ NWP: WRF
Structure of SuWAT Model in Vietnam
D1 D2
D3
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
4/1/2014 0:00 4/6/2014 0:00 4/11/2014 0:00 4/16/2014 0:00 4/21/2014 0:00 4/26/2014 0:00 5/1/2014 0:00
Time (h)
Tid
e e
levation (
m)
Harmonic Analyze
ModelCua Hoi Station
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
4/1/2014 0:00 4/6/2014 0:00 4/11/2014 0:00 4/16/2014 0:00 4/21/2014 0:00 4/26/2014 0:00 5/1/2014 0:00
Time (h)
Tid
e e
levati
on
(m
)
Harmonic Analyze
ModelHondau Station
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
4/2/2014 0:00 4/7/2014 0:00 4/12/2014 0:00 4/17/2014 0:00 4/22/2014 0:00 4/27/2014 0:00 5/2/2014 0:00
Time (s)
Tid
e e
leva
tio
n (
m)
Harmonic Analyze
ModelDa Nang Station
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
4/1/2014 0:00 4/6/2014 0:00 4/11/2014 0:00 4/16/2014 0:00 4/21/2014 0:00 4/26/2014 0:00 5/1/2014 0:00
Time (h)T
ide
ele
va
tio
n (
m)
Harmonic Analyze
Model
Quy Nhon Station
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
4/1/2014 0:00 4/6/2014 0:00 4/11/2014 0:00 4/16/2014 0:00 4/21/2014 0:00 4/26/2014 0:00 5/1/2014 0:00
Time (h)
Tid
e e
levation (
m)
Harmonic Analyze
ModelNha Trang Station
Vunngtau
Verifying the SuWAT Model
on Tide on April 2014
Variation of storm surge at Danang Station
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
9/28/2006 19:12 9/29/2006 19:12 9/30/2006 19:12 10/1/2006 19:12
Thời gian (giờ)N
ướ
c d
âng
(m
)
Quan trắc
Không thủy triều và sóng
Có thủy triều-không sóng
Không có thủy triều-có sóng
Có thủy triều và sóng
Nước dâng
do sóng
OBS
Surge only
Surge+tide
Surge+wave
Surge+tide+wave Surge
height
(m)
Time(hour)
Wave
setup
Effect of tide is insignificant, but wave
significant
Effect of wave on Storm surge
Track of Xangsena typhoon ( 9/2006)
land fall at Danang (middle of
Vietnam)
Maximum storm surge
(a) (b) (a) Without consider wave (b) With wave
Effect of tide and storm surge on wave height
(a) Without consider wave (b) With wave
Maximum significant wave height
Effect of tide and storm surge on wave height
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
9/29/2006 0:00 9/29/2006 19:12 9/30/2006 14:24 10/1/2006 9:36
Thời gian (giờ)
Độ c
ao (
m)
Hsig - Trên nền mực nước trung bình
Hsig. - Trên nền thủy triều và nước dâng do bão
Mực nước
Vị trí gần bờ H=6.5m
H=30m
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
9/29/2006 0:00 9/29/2006 19:12 9/30/2006 14:24 10/1/2006 9:36
Thời gian (giờ)
Độ c
ao (
m)
Hsig - Trên nền mực nước trung bình
Hsig. - Trên nền thủy triều và nước dâng do bão
Vị trí xa bờ
(b)
Hig.- without tide and storm surge
Hsig.-With tide and storm surge
Water level
Hig.- without tide and storm surge
Hsig.-With tide and storm surge
D=4.5m D=30.5m
Time (hour) Time (hour)
Height
(m)
Height
(m)
Effect of tide and storm surge on wave height
Time variation of Hsig. at shallow and deep water point
- Model setup by: Norwegian
Meteorological Institute under
the project “Strengthen the early
warning system” at National
Centre for Hydrometeorological
Forecasting of Vietnam
(NCHMF)
-Meteorological Model:
+ WRF
+ Resolution: 15km.
+ Boundary: GSM-JMA GFS-
NCEP
ROMS Model - Under research
Computational domain and bathymetry
Some Preliminary Results
Track of Xangsena typhoon ( 9/2006)
land fall at Danang (middle of
Vietnam)
Case 1: Xangxane typhoon 2006
Wind and pressure at the time
typhoon land fall –WRF model
Distribution of surge height at the time typhoon Xangxane (9/2009)
land fall – ROMS Mode Results
Time Variation of Storm Surge at
Cuviet (above) and Danang (below)
Stations
Cuviet: river station
Danang: Sea station
Verifying the model with OBS
data for typhoon Xangxane
(9/2006)
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2006/09/29 00:00 2006/09/30 00:00 2006/10/01 00:00 2006/10/02 00:00
Time (hour)
Surg
e hei
ght
(m)
OBS
SuWAT
ROMS
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
9/29/06 0:00 9/30/06 0:00 10/1/06 0:00 10/2/06 0:00
Time (hour)
Su
rge
hei
gh
t (m
)
OBS
SuWAT
ROMS
Flooding due
heavy rain
Track of Ketsena typhoon ( 9/2009)
land fall at Danang (middle of
Vietnam)
Case 2: Ketsena typhoon (9/2009)
Wind and pressure at the time
typhoon land fall –WRF model
Distribution of surge height at the time typhoon Xangxane
(9/2006) land fall -ROMS Mode Results
Time Variation of Storm Surge at
Cuaviet (above) and Danang
(below) Stations
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
9/25/2009
0:00
9/26/2009
12:00
9/28/2009
0:00
9/29/2009
12:00
10/1/2009
0:00
10/2/2009
12:00
Time (hour)
Su
rge
hei
gh
t (m
)
OBS
ROMS
Verifying the model with OBS
data for typhoon Ketsena
(9/2009)
In this case: SuWAT using
Empirical typhoon Model
(Fujita Model)
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2009/09/27
00:00
2009/09/28
00:00
2009/09/29
00:00
2009/09/30
00:00
2009/10/01
00:00
Time (hour)S
urg
e hei
ght
(m)
OBS
SuWAT
ROMS
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
9/16/2014
9:36
9/16/2014
14:24
9/16/2014
19:12
9/17/2014
0:00
9/17/2014
4:48
9/17/2014
9:36
9/17/2014
14:24
9/17/2014
19:12
9/18/2014
0:00
9/18/2014
4:48
9/18/2014
9:36
9/18/2014
14:24
Time (h)
H (
cm)
Total water level
Tide
Surge
Time of typhoon land fall
time of storm
surge exceed
0.5m
Case 3: Kalmaegi typhoon 2014
Track of Xangsena typhoon ( 9/2006)
land fall at Danang (middle of
Vietnam)
Time Variation of total level, tide
and Surge at Hondau Station
The surge generated after typhoon
landfall and reached to 12 hours (look
right figure). This is due to South-West
monsoon.
Suge and wave after typhoon Kalmaegi Land fall 12 hour
Surge + high tide + wave generated
inundation at Haiphong coast
Distribution of surge height at the time Kalmaegi typhoon
9/2014 land fall 3 and 6 hour - ROMS Mode Results.
Time Variation of Storm surge at Hondau Station
Verifying the model with OBS data for
typhoon Kalmaegi (9/2014)
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
9/16/2014 0:00 9/16/2014 18:00 9/17/2014 12:00 9/18/2014 6:00 9/19/2014 0:00
Time (hour)
Su
rge
hei
ght
(m)
OBS
SuWAT- WRF
SuWAT-Fujita
ROMS
0
5
10
15
20
25
9/15/2014 0:00 9/16/2014 0:00 9/17/2014 0:00 9/18/2014 0:00
Time (hour)
Win
d v
elo
city
(m
/s)
OBS
Fujita
WRF
980
985
990
995
1000
1005
1010
1015
9/14/2014 12:00 9/15/2014 12:00 9/16/2014 12:00 9/17/2014 12:00
Time (hour)
Pre
ssu
re (
hp
a)
OBS
Fujita
WRF
Time variation at Hondau station during typhoon Kalmaegi
(9/2014)
Conclusion and future work
1. ROMS model can simulate good agreement surge not only
in the case of typhoon, but strong wind.
2. Operation surge in monsoon (wind and airpressure
variation)
3. Coastal inundation due to storm tide.
4. Asiimilation for HF radar (wave and surface current)
Surface ccean current in South China sea and the coast of
Vietnam – Result from observation and analyze
- Strong surface current in SW direction
In winter (Dec.-Jan.) In summer (Jun-Aug.)
- Strong surface current in NE direction
Upwelling in SW monsoon
Observation station for investigation upwelling
Upwelling
zone
Thank You - Questions and Discussion?