stracener_emis 7305/5305_spr08_04.23.08 1 system cost analysis dr. jerrell t. stracener, sae fellow...
TRANSCRIPT
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Stracener_EMIS 7305/5305_Spr08_04.23.08
System Cost Analysis
Dr. Jerrell T. Stracener, SAE Fellow
Leadership in Engineering
EMIS 7305/5305Systems Reliability, Supportability and Availability Analysis
Systems Engineering ProgramDepartment of Engineering Management, Information and Systems
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• Cost Analysis Principles• Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis• System Considerations• LCC Management
– Design to Cost (DTC)– Cost as an Independent Variable (CAIV)
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Agenda
• LCC Organization• Warranties/ Guarantees• Wrap-Up
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Cost Analysis Principles
• Cost Analysis Essentials– Precise definition of what is being cost– Documentation of assumptions and
constraints– Model tailored to needs of problem and
consistent with existing level of system definition
– Risk/Uncertainty analysis to identify any conditions which could affect a conclusion
– Key limitations
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Cost Analysis Principles
State Objectives
Define Assumptions
Select Cost Element
Develop CERS
Collect Data
Estimate Element Cost
Perform Sensitivity Analysis
Perform Uncertainty Analysis
Present Results
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Cost Analysis Principles
• Six Desired Characteristics of Cost Models– Consistency: Conforms to current cost
estimating practices. This allows the Proposed System to be compared to an Analogous System.
– Flexibility: Constructed so that it is useful in the early phases and can evolve to accommodate more detailed information as the program continues through its life cycle.
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Cost Analysis Principles
• Six Desired Characteristics of Cost Models– Simplicity: Requires only the minimum data
necessary to estimate the cost. More complex models can be used as more data becomes available.
– Usefulness: Provides useful information to the decision makers in their evaluation of support and design tradeoffs.
– Completeness: Models should include all applicable costs for a system’s life.
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Cost Analysis Principles
• Six Desired Characteristics of Cost Models– Validity: Capable of providing logical,
reproducible results.
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Cost Analysis Principles
• Payback Analysis
Cost
($)
Time - Years
Payback Period
Crossover PointModified System
Existing System
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• Introduction– LCC a well-traveled concept for over 30 years– Numerous papers, policies, and decisions
issued relative to LCC over these years– Despite its longevity, a universal
understanding of LCC has not been established– A common definition of LCC terms, processes
and applications is required– LCC or a derivative will exist as long as
controlling program costs is a critical consideration
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• Definitions– Life-Cycle Cost (LCC): Total cost to the
customer of acquisition and ownership of a system over its full life. It includes the cost of development, production, operation and support and disposal.
– Cost Effectiveness (CE): Consideration of mission capability, mission reliability and operational availability along with LCC to evaluate competing design, production or support alternatives
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• Life Cycle Costing: An analytical study of a system’s live cycle cost – not an exact science
• Definitions– Design To Cost (DTC): Cost is a design
parameter receiving consideration along with performance, schedule, etc. In program decisions. DTC is a management process to integrate cost into design, production and support decisions.
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• Scope of LCC– LCC analysis can be applied on commercial
as well as government programs– Existing programs require LCCA - increasing
frequency is expected– LCC analysis is applicable across all program
phases - development, production and use– LCC analysis is applicable to software as well
as hardware– LCC analysis can be performed in constant,
inflated or discounted dollars
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• LCC Limitations– LCC outputs are estimates and are only as
accurate as the inputs– Interval estimates (Cost-Risk Analysis) are
appropriate for LCC predicting or gudgeting purposes
– Accuracy of LCC estimates is difficult to determine
– Limited data exists on new programs particularly with respect to operation and support costs
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Perc
en
tag
e
100
0
Life Cycle Phase
50
LCC Analysis: Phased LCC Funding Trends
FundsCommitted
FundsExpended
Definition RDT&E Production O&S
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• Cardinal Principles– Not an exact science - highly estimate– No right or wrong - reasonable or
unreasonable– Most effective as a Trade-Off tool– Should employ cost-risk analysis for LCC
estimation– Requires project team approach - need
specialized expertise from the project disciplines
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• Cardinal Principles– Should be an integral part of the design,
production and support processes - DTLCC
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• Cost Analysis Estimates– As system definition matures, system-
comparable data replaced by system-specific data
– Systems Engineer should be LCC team leader and coordinate input data from team members:ReliabilityMaintainabilityLogistics
DesignProductionCost
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• Cost Analysis Estimates– Estimated data is followed by test and
evaluation data which is in turn followed by field data
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• Basic LCC ModelsLCC = CA + CS
CA: Acquisition CostCS: Sustaining Cost
CA = CD + CICD: Development CostCI: Investing Cost
CS = COS + CRCOS: Operating and Support CostCR: Retirement Cost
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• LCC Objectives– Estimate Costs– Compare Costs– Balance Cost
Acquisition Cost Sustaining Cost
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Typical LCC Model StructureLife
CycleCost
Acquisition Cost
SustainingCost
Operating & Support Cost
RetirementCost
1st DestinationTransportation
Installation& System
integration
Support Equipment & Initial Spares
Modification
Packaging & Transportation
Scheduled Maintenance
UnscheduledMaintenance
New/ModifiedFacilities
InitialTechnical
Data
Prime Equip.And Initial
Spares
SupplyIntroduction
InitialTraining
Investment Cost
Investment Cost
Investment Cost
Development Cost
Development Cost
Development Cost
Software
Prime Equipment
SupportEquipment
SupplyManagement
Energy Consumption
ReplenishmentSpares
Operating
Support Equip.Maintenance
Technical DataManagement
FacilityUsage
RecurringTraining
Software Maintenance
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis: Flow
Doctrines•Procurement•Operational•Maint./Support
SystemCharacteristics
StandardFactors
InputData
EstimatesCost
Model
Estimateof
LCC
BestEstimateof LCC
Sensitivity Analysis
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• LCC Estimating Techniques– Analogy/Scaling– Parametrics-LCC as a function of weight for
example– Engineering (Bottom-Up) Analysis– Vendor Data– Field Data
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• LCC Input Data– System Characteristics
Quantity of item under study in larger system
Item unit costItem MTBF/MTBMItem Weight
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• LCC Input Data– System Characteristics
Item VolumeItem MTTRQuantity of stock number introduced and
managed support equipment (if applicable) unit cost
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• LCC Input Data– Standard Factors
Maintenance labor rates at each maintenance level
Shipping ratesCost per stock number for introductionCost per stock number for managementCost per page for technical data
creation/management
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• LCC Input Data– Standard Factors
Attrition rates for recurring trainingFacility space cost factorsSupport equipment maintenance cost
factor
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LCC Analysis: Data Paradox
SmallValue
LargeValue
SmallAmount
LargeAmount
Cost DecisionValue
DataAvailabilityV
alu
e o
f C
ost
Deci
sion
Am
ou
nt
of
Availa
ble
Data
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• Types of LCC Analysis– Baseline: Evaluates LCC for particular system
configuration for given operational and maintenance policies
– Sensitivity: Evaluates the impact on LCC of changes to the input data to identify cost drivers requiring special attention during the program
– Tradeoff: Evaluates alternative approaches to aid in the selection of the preferred option based on LCC, mission capability, availability and mission reliability
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• Types of LCC Analysis– Tracking: Monitors LCC of System over time
to identify variances from baseline and aid in definition of trade-offs to control total program cost
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• LCC Sensitivity Analysis– Types of LCC Drivers:
Hardware - LRU/WRA, SRU/SRA, etc.Cost Element - Initial spares, maintenance,
etc.Design Parameter - MTBF, UPC, weight,
LOC, etc.
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• LCC Sensitivity Analysis– Common LCC Drivers:
System Usage - Hours, miles, cycles, etc.Unit Production Cost (UPC)Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF)Mean Time to Repair (MTTR)System QuantityExpected Service Life of System
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• LCC Applications– Customer
Affordability studies - CAIVSource SelectionDesign Trade Studies - Establishing reliability
and maintainability goals / requirementsRepair Level AnalysisWarranty should cost and cost effectiveness
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• LCC Applications– Supplier
Identification of cost drivers for emphasis during program - sensitivity analysis
Comparison of competing design, production and support alternatives - trade-off ranking
LCC Tracking during program - problem isolation
Marketing tool - new and modification programs
Warranty Pricing
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• Cost Analysis Considerations– Time Value of Money
Constant Dollars: States all costs in terms of constant purchasing power measured at a given time - also known as real dollars
Inflated Dollars: Cost stated in terms of estimated expenditures at the time the money is spent - also known as then-year future or actual dollars
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Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis
• Cost Analysis Considerations– Time Value of Money
Discounted Dollars: All costs are referenced to a common point in time based upon the anticipated earning power of money - costs can be in constant or inflated dollars.
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Monte Carlo Process
• Random• MTBF
• Labor Cost/Repair
• Unit Cost
• Constant• Number of Systems
• Service Life Period
• Operating Hours
Inputs
Possible Distributions
Uniform
Triangular
Normal
Maintenance Cost Elements
Model
Labor
Material
Shipping
Administration
Freq
uen
cy
Outputs
• Maintenance Cost Sample
• Histogram
• Statistical Parameters
• Cumulative Distribution
0
1
Risk
$x
0.2x$P
0.2
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System Considerations
• Driving System Concepts– Procurement Data
Number of Systems procuredProduction ScheduleInstallation ScheduleDesign to unit production cost (DTUPC)
requirementsFirst destination transportation
requirements
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System Considerations
• Driving System Concepts– Operational Data
Number of operational sitesQuantity of systems per siteMission schedule - number of missions per
periodMission Profile - mission length, mission
typeGround operation requirementsMission readiness and reliability
requirements
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System Considerations
• Driving System Concepts– Maintenance/Support Data
Number of levels of maintenanceQuantity of maintenance sites per levelLocation of maintenance sitesNumber of systems supported per siteDescription of maintenance at each levelScheduled/preventive maintenance
requirements
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System Considerations
• Driving System Concepts– Maintenance/Support Data
Required MTTR at each maintenance levelRequired spares assurance factors and
TATSSupport equipment requirments
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Product
•Spares•Technical Publications•Training•Support Equipment
•Availability•Sortie Generation Rates•Basing
•Reliability•Maintainability•Supportability•Testability
Operational
Concept
MaintenanceConcept
SupportConcept
•Organization•Requirements•Schedule Maintenance•Unscheduled Maintenance
RMS as Key System Elements
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System Considerations
• Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Outcomes
A
B
E
C
Effectiveness
LCC
•A is preferable IF E is worth more than C
•A is more effective•B cost less
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Cost-Effectiveness Factor Interactions
S AnalysisM AnalysisR Analysis
LCC Analysis
A Analysis
CEAnalysis
MTBF
MTTR
MTBM
$
MDT
A0
Mission R
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Design to Cost (DTC)
• Establishes LCC as a design parameter - not a consequence of design
• Requires establishment of cost goals, monitoring of these goals and tread-off actions to keep the LCC within these goals (budgets)
• Activity focuses on identifying system cost drivers, potential risk areas relative to the drivers and on-going cost/ scheduled/ performance tradeoffs
• Should be early and continuos
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Design to Cost (DTC): Terms
• Design to unit production cost (DTUPC): Concerned with managing UPC goals- includes recurring and non-recurring production cost
• Design to LCC (DTLCC): Concerned with managing the total LCC of a system, including development, investment, operation and support and retirement- focuses on drivers since out-year costs are difficult to manage
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Design to Cost (DTC): Terms
• Design to Cost Effectiveness (DTCE): Concerned with managing not only LCC but also other system parameters such as mission reliability, readiness and mission capability
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Design to Cost (DTC)
• DTLCC Implementation– Keys to Success
Useable LCC modelReasonable input dataExtensive trade-off analyses- LCC not ony
criterionRelating of results to hardware/software
designImplementation of trade-off decisions into
the hardware/software design
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Design to Cost (DTC)
• DTLCC Implementation– Keys to Success
Challenging the performance requirementsAdhering to hierarchy - equipment, cost
category and design driver
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Design to Cost (DTC)
• DTLCC– Program trade-off issues
UPC vs. MTBFRedundancy vs. no redundancyBuilt-InTest (BIT) vs. no BITTwo vs. Three-Level maintenanceRepair vs. discardLCC vs. system performanceDifferent sparing assurancesDifferent levels of environmental stress
screening (ESS)
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Design to Cost (DTC)
• Trade-Off Process
EstablishBasis ofComparison
IdentifyCandidates
Define Purpose
Select/Develop Model
Secure Input Data
PerformBaselineAnalysis
RankCandidates
PerformSensitivityAnalysis
Select Best Candidate
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Design to Cost (DTC)
LCC Vs. MTBF
Cost($)
MTBF (Hours)
Total Life Cycle Cost
Operating and Support Cost
Development and Acquisition Cost
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Scheduled Maintenance Trade Study
1.85
100 120 1408060
1.80
1.75
1.70
1.65
1.60
1.55
1.50
1.45
Unsched
Sched 1000
Sched 800
A
B
Percent of Predicted Baseline - MTBF
LCC
(B
illio
ns)
Scheduled Vs. Unscheduled Maintenance
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Repair Versus Discard Trade Study
Unit Production Cost (UPC)
Discard
Repair
$600
LCC
Staff-hrs per repair
Repair
Discard
12 Staff-hrs
LCC
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Cost as an Independent Variable
• What is CAIV?– An acquisition strategy/methodology to
acquire and manage affordable systems– Early, continual and consistent focus on
balancing requirements to the program budget
– Establishment and management of cost targets consistent with the program budget
– Diligent use of trade-off analysis between requirements and cost to maintain performance and cost within targets
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Cost as an Independent Variable
• What is CAIV?– An extension of DTLCC where cost and
requirements are independent variables not just requirements
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Cost as an Independent Variable
CAIV Vision Team Effort
User
Acquirer Industry
•Define Operational Requirement•Control $•Make Trade Decisions
•Define Capabilities•Make Trade Inputs•Build System
•Mange Contract•Identify Trades
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Wrap-Up
• LCC can be controlled on commercial and government programs through the diligent application of CAIV
• CAIV is a management tool to establish affordability and integrate LCC into the design process
• Tradeoffs are the cornerstone of CAIV• CAIV should be applied as early in the
program design process as possible
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Wrap-Up
• Team concept is vehicle for a successful CAIV program
• Cost must be a design parameter not a consequence of design