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STRATEGI BISNIS DI ERA

Prof. Ir. Roy Sembel, MBA, PhD, CSATwitter/Instagram: @ProfRoySembel LinkedIn / FB: Prof. Roy Sembel

LAMPUNG, 8 JULI 2019

Prof. Ir. Roy Sembel, MBA, Ph.D, CSA

• More than 35 years of balanced work experience in business and academia, including as a Writer, Speaker, Trainer, Entrepreneur, Investor

• Have facilitated hundreds of training / seminar for more than 100 clients (multinational / state-owned / local companies) from variety of sectors (Financial services/banks, Consumers goods, Telecom, Property, Energy, Mining, Construction, Media, Pharmacy, Governement, NGO, etc)

• Finance Professor & former Dean, IPMI International Business School

• Co-Owner / Co-founder MDS (Data Science), MIOTA (Internet of Things)

• Previous work experiences: McKinsey & Co Jakarta, ABN AMRO Bank Amsterdam, Bank Niaga, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Vriens & Partner, etc

• Author / Writer of more than 30 books and 1000 articles

• Studied at IPB, Rotterdam School of Management Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, University of Pittsburgh

2

LAUNCHED ON 23/4/2016

To order book: 081514140538

5

COMMUNICATION:

• E-mail: [email protected]

• Twitter: @ProfRoySembel

• Instagram: @ProfRoySembel

• LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel

• Facebook: Prof. Roy Sembel

• HP/WA: 0818 773 662

EXERCISE: COUNTING SQUARES

• How many squares ?

7

AGENDA

• ERA DISRUPTIF EKONOMI BARU

• PERKEMBANGAN DAN PELUANG DI ERA 5G

• PEMBERDAYAAN BISNIS DI ERA 5G

• Q&A

What picture is it?

9

SPEED HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY

Era

Length of period

[years]

Speed [km/jam] Time to cycle Earth

Agrarian 3-5000

(Age)

3-5

(Human)

3-5

(Years)

Industrial 3-500 (Revolution) 3-50

(Auto)

.3-.5

(Months)

Post-industrial 3-50

(Trend)

3-500

(Plane)

.03-.05

(Days)

Friction-free 3-5

(Fad)

3-5000 (Network) .003-.005 (Hours)

Sumber: Diolah dari T. G. Lewis, The friction-free economy

IPMI Executive Education Capabilities 10

11

DISRUPTION:OLD ECONOMY ➔ NEW ECONOMY

DISRUPTION

Capital Mobility

Digitization /E-commerce

Liberalization

New market structure

New industry structure

New firm structure

New business model structure

NEW ECONOMY

OLDECONOMY

13

The rise of

the new

economy

Transparency &

Competition

NEW ECONOMY: HIGHER RETURN & RISK

• More choices

• 24-hour services

• Just a ‘click’ away

•Interaction costs

•Transformation costs

• Faster natural selection

• ‘Sticks and carrots’ to

become more eficient &

inovative

• More and faster

interaction &

transactions

• Globalization dan

localization

•Unbundling &

reassembling

business

organization,

government,

financial

instruments

HIGHER

RETURN & RISK

OLD VS NEW BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT


V.U.C.A: THE NEW NORMAL


IMPACT OF DISRUPTIVE V.U.C.A ERA IF UNPREPARED


17

AGENDA




• Q&A

POP QUIZ

Total Nominal GDP (at current price)

of Indonesia in 2018?

Prof. Roy Sembel, Ph.D

SWOT ANALYSIS for the EconomySTRENGHTS:

WEAKNESSES:

Cryonism (KKN)

Law enforcement

Low Human Development Index

Lack of quantity/quality infrastructure

Market distortion

Week PR

Democracy/Political maturity still in transition

OPPORTUNITIES:

THREATS:

Physical terrorism

Economic terrorism

Tropical diseases

Volatility of commodity prices

Natural disasters

Some highlights on Indonesia

• 4th most populous country, total population in 2018 ~ 265 million, with rising middle class

• GDP ranking: 16th (Nominal), 7th (Purchasing Power Parity adjusted)

• Top 3 highest GDP growth among G20 countries• Rich in combined marine and land biodiversity• Rich in cultural and natural heritage• Strategic location between 2 continents (Asia and

Australia) and 2 oceans (Indian and Pacific) • Advantage of having demographic bonus in the

next 15-20 years• Huge Digital business opportunities

20

21

2019 & Beyond

?

PROSPECT OF BUSINESS IN 2019 & BEYOND

22

•Domestic Stocks ➔ Long-term

investment, short-term trading

•EBA, REITs, Property

•Risk management / hedging

•Gold, Currency ➔ Trading

•Businesses that leverage social media

/ e-Commerce & Block-Chain

•FinTech, IoT, Big Data Analytics, e-

Platform, etc.

•Travel, Tourism, Transportation

•Infrastructure, alternative energy,

recycle business, modern retail outlet,

international-quality education,

healthcare / hospitals, etc

•Relatively low interest rate

•Global V.U.C.A

•GDP per capita ~ $ 4000

•Pressure on IDR & IHSG

•GDP growth still ~ 5%

•Inflation ~ 3%

•Mobile subscriber > 350 mn

•Infrastructure & Maritime

development

•Domestic consumption /

Rising middle class

•Demographic Bonus

Three bars or four bars?

IMF: GDP adjusted by PPP 2019

Huge Potential for Digital Business

26

UNICORNS OF INDONESIA

30

INDONESIA 4.0: PRIORITY SECTORS

IPMI Executive Education Capabilities

32

USA 2010$14,5 T

Japan 2010

$5,7 T

Indonesia 2017$1,01 T

Indonesia 2038$5,7 T

Indonesia 2050

$14,5 T

TOTAL NOMINAL GDP

RANK 16 RANK 4

33

AGENDA




• Q&A

SAME FACTS MAY IMPLYDIFFERENT PERCEPTIONS

35

“Gales of Creative Destruction”

Joseph Alois

Schumpeter

LONG RUN COMPETITION:

NOT (price and output)

competition which counts,

BUT competition from

new commodity,

new technology,

new source of supply,

(or) new type of

organization

36

• 1+1=2

• Two separate revolutions

• Wireless datacom enabling technologies

• Change in human behavior

• 1+1>2

• Wireless and datacom enhance each other

• Standards drive massive application and service development

• Revolution in human behavior and society

•

• Datacom is everything. Everything is wireless

• All “gadgets” are addressable in one uniform network

• Change beyond imagination

• WIRELESS +

INTERNET

Fundamental change in the way we live & behave

MATRIX

-00 00-09 10-

WIRELESS

SERVICE

REVOLUTION

Customers

MEDAN PERANG 360 DERAJAT

37

Intermediaries

Incumbents Start Ups

New Life Forms

PETAHANA BIASANYA DALAM POSISI BAHAYASAAT SITUASI BERUBAH CEPAT

38

Attackers advantage

•Speed culture

•Greenfield business design

•Customer cherry picking

•Business system slicing

•Economic webs

•Shareholder value focus

Defenders dilemma

•Complacency

•Conventional mindset

•Cannibalization fears

•Channel conflict

•Curse of the deep pocket

•Current income focus

Prof. Roy Sembel, Ph.D 39

• TRANSPORTASI: GOJEK, GRAB, UBER,

DRIVERLESS CAR, DRONE

• KORAN: WEBNEWS

• TELEVISI: YOU-TUBE

• HOTEL: AIRBnB, TRAVELOKA

• RITEL: TOPED, BUKALAPAK, ALIBABA

• PENDIDIKAN: TED, COURSERA,

KHANACADEMY

• BANK: FINTECH

• MATA UANG: E-MONEY, BITCOIN

DISRUPSI DAN DISKONTINUITAS

Focus Area

Lo

wH

igh

Tec

hn

ica

l S

op

his

tic

ati

on

Product Customer

4

Solusi web

terintegrasi bagi

pelanggan usaha

kecil menengah

3

Memperluas

penasaran produk

dengan

mengeksploitasi

kemungkinan

teknologi baru

2

Produk IJK

tradisional untuk

segmen tertentu

1

Penawaran online

sistem bisnis

tradisional

Opportunities for Finance Industry in Indonesia

41

EVOLUTION OF CONSUMER NEEDS THROUGH STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT

• Financial advice – e.g., tax, estate

and investment planning

• Trading activities

• Income protection

• Highly sophisticated investment

needs – e.g., derivative-based

instruments

• Wide transaction needs

• Need for consumer finance

• Increasing sophistication of

investment needs

• Strong protection needs

• Retirement and pension

Developing

• Needs are simple

• Need for security is high

• Shorter-term focus

• Tend to hold liquid assets

Embryonic

• Borrowing needs arise with

increasing consumerism

• Medium-term focus – e.g., savings

for home and education

• Limited transaction needs

• Needs to protect wealth and

income beginning to emerge

Emerging

Advanced

MODEL OF MARKET DEVELOPMENT

Differentiators

Consumer

sophistication

Urbanization

Economy/

Market

structure

Financial

infrastructure

Regulation

Low education

level

Predominantly

rural

Monopolistic /

protected

markets

Basic and

unsophisticated

Minimal

regulations

Embryonic

Rising

education level

Rising centers

of urbanization

Relaxing

controls

Capital market

in its infancy

Developing

regulations,

often vague

Emerging

High education

level but basic

consumer Fin

Service

awareness

Liberalizing

Developing and

growing, lacking

depth

Highly regulated

Developing

Extensive PFS

consumer

information

Free market

Advanced capital

markets

Liberal and self-

regulated

Advanced

Population concentrated in urban

areas

Indonesia

4

3

FINANCE INDUSTRY OPPORTUNITIES: 4 GROWTH DIMENSIONS

Finance Industry

opportunities

Channels:

How are

channels

evolving to meet

customer and

supplier needs?

Customers:

What are customers’

financial needs and how

do they behave to fill

these needs?

Geography:

Where are the most

attractive markets?

Products:

Which products

offer greatest

growth and profit

potential?

44

REDUCTION IN INTERACTION COSTS ➔ INCREASE ROLES OF EXTERNAL NETWORKS

• TRANSACTION COST ECONOMICS

• Ronald Coase & Oliver Williamson

• Transaction: smallest unit of economic activity

– Conducted through

• market by price mechanism or

• command/control by hierarchy inside a firm.

TREND

TOWARDS

STRATEGIC

ALLIANCES

RELIANCE ON

EXTERNAL

NETWORKS

45

UNBUNDLING BUSINESS FUNCTIONS

SPECIALIZATION:

•INNOVATION

•CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP

•INFRASTRUCTURE

Product

manu-

facturingChecks Savings

Corporate

lending

Cash

manage-

ment

Trade

finance

Branches Phone ATMs

CardsConsumer

finance

Internet

Proprie-

tary

sales

&

distri-

bution

Attackers unbundle the value chain to focus on the most attractive products and channels . . .

Content

–Exciting local

language

content

Technological

enablers

–Bandwidth

–Access device

penetration

–Access device cost

–Access cost

Legal/regulatory

support

–Fraud

protection

–Government

active support

Business

propositions

–Advertising

volume

– Investment capital

–Skills

Customer

sophistication

How rapidly

are the

building

blocks for

growth likely

to fall into

place in

Indonesia?

–Purchasing power

–Trust of remote

transactions

Payment/fulfilment

systems

–Card penetration

–Payment system

–Logistics

infrastructure

E-commerce development depends on six sets of growth enablers

E- financial services opportunities

Business model

Core

Business

Non-core

financial

services

Beyond

financial

services

Venture

capital

Online

access

Online

enabler

End-user

services

Online function

Internet access, e.g. ISP

Financial

portal

General

portal

Wide

financial

products

Multiple e-

commerce

Strategic

investing

Loan

super-

market

Online

banking

Online

payments

SOME RECENT OPPORTUNITIES

• Loan to students ➔ ACA and IPMI

• Loan to seamen / sailor ➔MCSI crewing services

• P to P lending

• Crowd funding

• Securitization


FIN-TECH MAP, INDONESIA


53

AGENDA




• Q&A

Time for strecthing54

55

危机

Rich people focus on opportunities. Poor people

focus on obstacles. (Chinese Proverb)

56

CRISIS ?

90 % OF PEOPLE

OPERATE AT

10% OF THEIR CAPACITY

90 % OF TIME

57

PEMBERDAYAAN BISNIS MELALUI:

• PERBAIKAN PARADIGMA

• PEMANFAATAN TEKNOLOGI

• REFORMASI BUDAYA/MINDSET/LEARNING

CAPACITY BUILDING

‘Hardware’

Leadership

‘Brainware’‘Marketware’

‘Software’

Culture

GOAL

59

PENTINGNYA PERBAIKAN INFRASTRUKTUR

• PEMBERDAYAAN OTDA PERLU PERBAIKAN DAN

PENINGKATAN INFRASTRUKTUR TRANSPORTASI DAN

KOMUNIKASI ➔PELUANG BAGI UMKM LOKAL

•BRAINWARE / MINDWARE:

•REFORMASI SDM UNTUK BERSIAP MENERIMA PELUANG

•ENTREPRENEURSHIP SPIRIT

•VISIONARY LEADERSHIP

•PEMBERDAYAAN TEKNOLOGI UNTUK PEMBERDAYAAN

MASYARAKAT ➔PELUANG BAGI UMKM LOKAL

•TREND DARI FREE TRADE KE FAIR TRADE ➔PERJUANGAN

MELALUI LOBBY POLITIK

•OTONOMI DAERAH: DARI BIROKRAT KE ULTRAPRENEUR

60

SUMBER REJEKI BARU:ASET INTANGIBLE (ATB)

Intangibles

•Properti intelektual•SDM Unggul•Merek / Brand •Network•dll

61

INTANGIBLES DI LAMPUNGLOKASI: ANTARA SUMAERA DAN JAWA

POTENSI PERDAGANGAN DAN PARIWISATA

PEMANFAATAN TEKNOLOGI TELEMATIKA

WISMAN DAN WISNUS

ENAK DI MATA, ENAK DI HATI, ENAK DI LIDAH

THE ECOCULTURAL BEAUTY OF ASIA

POTENSI KEHUTANAN, PERTANIAN, DAN KELAUTAN/PERIKANAN

JALUR ENERGI DAN PERTAMBANGAN

KEAMANAN ?

INFRASTRUKTUR PENUNJANG ?

HUMAN CAPITAL ?

62

62

W.I.S.D.O.M

WATAK: SWOT, kenali situasi sekarang

IMPIAN/INGIN: Tujuan, SMARTER Goal

SIASAT: Strategi, Road Map

DIDIK: Pengetahuan, Ketrampilan, Sikap

OTAK/OTOT: Kerja cerdas / kerja cerdas

METER : Ukur pencapaian

MONITOR Pantau kemajuan

MANAJEMEN Kesejalanan antara rencana dan aksi

63

THE WISDOM WAY

Assess

current situation1

Formulate

strategy

Work Smarter and Harder

3

5

Determine

Objectives2

6MeterMonitorManajemen

4Learning

W

I

S

D

O

M

6 SI sukses bisnis

MOTIVASI

EDUKASI

INVESTASI

INOVASI

AKSI

PERSISTENSI

Are successful people born

susccessful?

Two mindsets

Mindset

• Related to your belief about ability

• Creates a whole mental world for you to live in

• Fixed mindset – ability cannot change

• Growth mindset – ability can change (grow)

SIAPA INI?

Other examples …

….Einstein's teacher said that

he was ‘academically subnormal’

….Michael Jordan's coach said that

he wasn’t more talented than other people…

…..Walt Disney was told that

he lacked ‘creative imagination’

‘Successful people …are made, not born, that way’

The ‘growth mindset’

72

SUCCESS AS ENTREPRENEURS

DEPEND MORE ON

HABITS / EQ, CQ, SQ

LESS ON KNOWLEDGE/

IQ

Rp

Jake Bernstein

The Investor’s Quotient

Knowledge

without

correct habits

is

powerless

73

COMPONENT OF SUCCESS

20%

80%

Technical Mindset

74

Intrapersonal SkillChange managementStress managementTime management

Creative thinking processesGoal setting & life purpose

Accelerated learning techniques

Interpersonal SkillCommunication skillsRelationship building

Motivation skillsLeadership skills

Self-marketing skillsNegotiation skillsPresentation skills

Public speaking skills

75

RIGHT BRAIN VS LEFT BRAIN

76

Easy to predict future

Alternative Future

conditions Range of Future Totally unclear future

?

1

2

3

A B

C D

FACING FOUR LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY

77

Scenario

1.

2.

3.

4.

Value

+

+

+

+

DEFINING STRATEGY UNDER UNCERTAINTY: Definition of strategic actions

“No regrets”

Actions that will

produce results in all

scenario

•Preparing IT

Infrastructure

•Training agile

personnel

“Options”

Ensuring big results

while controlling

risks

• Pilot trial

• Limited Joint

venture

• Monitoring structure

“Big bets”

Significant results only

for some scenario

• Akuisisi atau investasi

modal besar

• Meluncurkan inisiatif

besar untuk

mengubah bentuk

industri

Definition

Example

Building

blocks

THE RISE OF BILL GATES AND MICROSOFT

ABCDEFGH of ENTREPRENEUR

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

80

BUSINESS-Q

• People and Self Empowerment

• Customer Focus

• Resources Management

• Entre / Intrapreneurship

• Technology utilization

Prof. Ram Charan: 5 essentials of business

12345

82

OPPORTUNITY IS EVERYWHEREINTERNAL

OPTIMIZE EXISTING RESOURCES

Tangible Assets

Intangible Assets

CAPACITY BUILDING

EXTERNAL

RIDING ON A TREND

GEOGRAPHY

DEMOGRAPHY

PSYCHOGRAPHY

INNOVATION

CREATING A TREND

NEW PRODUCTS

NEW WAYS OF DOING BUSINESS

NEW TECHNOLOGY

INTERNALOPTIMIZE EXISTING RESOURCES

CAPACITY BUILDING

Tangible Assets Idle space, time

Under-utilized human resources

Intangible Assets Monetize Brand

Analyze and Utilize Customer Data

Supplier network

Training and Development

Upgrading Machines

Upgrading IT

84

EXTERNAL

RIDING ON A TREND

GEOGRAPHY

PSYCHOGRAPHY

DEMOGRAPHY

GENERAL TREND Trend ICT utilization

SPECIFIC TREND / FAD Pemilu

Rebonding

Realty Show

China

Otda

Aging population

Rising middle class

Metrosexual people

Interest groups / communities

Car Club

Alumni Club

85

INNOVATION

CREATING A TREND Healthy Lifestyle

NEW PRODUCTS iPad

NEW WAYS OF DOING BUSINESS Online channel

NEW TECHNOLOGY Internet Banking


GO-JEK / GRAB BIKE

sensorConnectivity People & Process

IOT : Sensor – Connectivity – People & Process

• Vision• Position/Presence/Proxim

ity• Motion/Velocity• Temperature• Humidity/Moisture• Accoustic/Sound/Vibrati

on• Chemical/Gas• Flow• Force/load/torque/Strai

n/Pressure• Leaks/Level• Electric/Magnetic• Acceleration/Tilt

Ethernet IPv4 PAN

RFID Ipv6 LAN

SNT UDP MAN

NFC DTLS WAN

2 wave RPL

Bluetooth TELNET

Wifi MQTT

DASH DDS

Wmax CoAP

2G/GSM/EDGE,

CDMA. EVDO

XMPP

3G, GPRS HTTP

4G/LTE SOCKETS

LTE ADVANCE REST

API

• Customer relationship & Support• Behavior• Health• Location & Tracking• Financial• Analytic • Cloud• API• Upgrade & Configurations• Remote monitoring/Maintenance• Control & Maintenance• Supply Chain Management• Security• Energy• Water • Mobile Device/apps• Weather• Etc.

an IOT Company

an IOT Company

6 Industry :USD 34 – 7.6 T

INDONESIA :

1.16 %

US$ 34 – 76 BRp 493 T –

Rp 1.140 T

IOT Business Potential

1. Monitor & Understand the Condition & performance of

THINGS real time

2. Control, Reduce Cost & Improve PERFORMANCE

3. Capture, Manage & Analytic DATA to provide solution &

Better decision making

4. Create NEW businesses and new revenue stream

HOW COMPANIES CAN GAIN BENEFITS FROM IOT

Big Data ?

“Big Data” is data whose scale, diversity, and

complexity require new architecture, techniques,

algorithms, and analytics to manage it and extract

value and hidden knowledge from it

94

Change in the model for production and consumption of data

• Model of production and consumption of Data:

Old Model: Few companies are generating data, all others

are consuming data

New Model: all of us are generating data, and all of

us are consuming data

95

Sources of Big Data

Social media and networks

(all of us are generating data)Scientific instruments

(collecting all sorts of data)

Mobile devices

(tracking all objects all the time)

Sensor technology and networks

(measuring all kinds of data)

• The progress and innovation is no longer hindered by the ability to collect

data

• But, by the ability to manage, analyze, summarize, visualize, and discover

knowledge from the collected data in a timely manner and in a scalable

fashion

96

97

BIG DATA ANALYTIC ENABLESANTICIPATION OF LATENT NEEDS

98

Story of

MARKETING WARDAVID VS GOLIATH

TAKE AWAYS• BE ALERT, DO NOT PANIC!

• THINK BALANCE: SHORT & LONG TERM

• PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES

• FOCUS ON FUNDAMENTALS

• MASTER BUSINESS ACUMEN

• BE QUICK, AGILE, AND NIMBLE

• RISK MANAGEMENT

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Twitter / Instagram: @ProfRoySembel

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