Championing Young People’s Learning

Strategic Analysis: Headlines forthe South West

Matt.Jago@ypla.gov.uk

(but also a bit about the publicly available data sources we use…)

Introduction

1. Annual Business Inquiry

2. JSA Claimant Count

3. Participation in education, employment &training by 16-18 year olds in England –DfE SFR 18/2010

4. National Employer Skills Survey

5. ONS sub-national population projections

Annual Business Inquiry

• Collects data from a sample of businesses to generate estimatesof employee jobs by industry, geography, age gender, FT/PT, plusnumber of businesses by type

• Can be accessed through the ONS NOMIS site – need aChancellor of the Exchequer’s Notice

• Survey, not a census, so is sometimes inaccurate & always a littleimprecise

• Doesn’t include sole traders or self employed people (eg. selfemployed hairdressers or trades-people)

• Sample sizes at smaller geographies mean that confidenceintervals are large below local authority area level

• Has now become the Annual Business Survey and the BusinessRegister & Employment Survey (for 2009 data onwards)

• https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/Default.asp

Employment trends – South West

7/10ofjobs

Note reclassification ofsome previouslyfinancial industry jobsinto this category (eg.accountancy etc.)

Employment trends – Bath & NESomerset

Probable inaccuracy,maybe in coding oflarge employer’spostcodes

• An unofficial measure of unemployment• Looks at the number of people able to fulfil certain criteria (ie.

those eligible for and claiming JSA), rather than the actualnumber of people who are unemployed and seeking work

• Records their sought occupations• Doesn’t count people out of work claiming other benefits or

unemployed people not eligible for JSA• Timely (monthly)• Official measure is ILO unemployment which almost always

runs higher• Can be accessed through the ONS NOMIS site – don’t need

a Chancellor of the Exchequer’s Notice• https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/Default.asp

Job Seeker’s Allowance ClaimantCount

Under-19 Job Seeker’s AllowanceClaimant Count, South West

Under-19 Job Seeker’s AllowanceClaimant Count - index

Number of under-20s leaving JSA foreducation & training, 12 monthmoving average

About 10extra peopleeach month

Number of under-20s leaving JSA foreducation & training, index of 12month moving average

Participation in education, employment& training by 16-18 year olds in England

• Department for Education statistical first release• Updated annually (latest = SFR 18/2010)• Official statistics for EET and NEET• Provides breakdowns by age, gender, mode of study, type of

learning, institution type (FE college, schools, etc)• Time series back to 1985• Available at local authority area level• Comes form a range of administrative data, including ILR, school

census etc. which is fuzzy matched to postcodes• Time lag – latest data is for 2008• An estimate, not a census• Two of the most common complaints are:

• Sometimes questionable denominators due to usingpopulation estimates as a base

• Quality of postcode data is sometimes not as good as youmight expect

• http://tiny.cc/6063d

Increasing participation at 17 – SouthWest

• Largest survey of England’s employers, their training & recruitmentpractices and skills needs

• A very large survey (80,000 employers in 2009) so isrepresentative

• Currently biennial – carried out in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007 & 2009• 2009 survey was designed so as to be representative to local

authority area level• Data available regarding:

• Recruitment problems• Skills gaps• Training practices & expenditure• Skill updating needs• Recession• Product market strategies

• Previously ‘owned’ by the LSC, now with UKCES• As with ABI does not include sole traders or the self-employed• https://ness.ukces.org.uk/default.aspx

National Employer Skills Survey (NESS)

New for ‘09

South West employers’ opinions onyoung people’s readiness for work

• 25 year estimates of future populations• 2008-based, using 2008 mid-year population estimates• Breakdown available by 5 year age groups, gender, region, local

authority, local health authority areas• Further detail available on request to the ONS (eg. single year

ages, district authority level detail)• Projections are estimates so not gospel: nobody can tell the future• Some dispute from a number of local authorities as to accuracy –

rural authorities tend to agree with these more than urbanauthorities

• Local authorities often produce their own projections - both havetheir pros and cons

• We use ONS so as to apply a standard across the whole country• http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=997

ONS sub-national population projections

2008-based population projectionsindex – 16-18 year olds, South West