strategic analysis in a supervisor

Master’s degree thesis for the acquisition of

Master of Science

Enrolled in the Master’s degree program

General Management

Master’s Thesis Strategic Analysis in a Global, Dynamic Business Environment

Author:

Natalia Baczyk

Supervisor:

Assoz. Univ.-Prof.Mag.Dr.

Regina Gattringer

Submitted at:

Institute of Strategic

Management

Linz, October 2019

Natalia Baczyk, k1327505

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Statutory Declaration

I hereby declare that the thesis submitted is my own unaided work, that I have not used other

than the sources indicated, and that all direct and indirect sources are acknowledged as

references.

This printed thesis is identical with the electronic version submitted.

Linz, October 2019


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Executive Summary Organizations strive to outperform in the market compared to their counterparties. A corporate

strategy is the direction of a company’s business operations (Lopez-Gamero & Molina-Azorin,

2017, p. 746). There are several decisions and actions which together determine the

performance of an organization. In the process of strategic management, a crucial step to

conduct is strategic analysis, which gathers information about the external and internal

environment (Daniell, 2011, p. 35). Furthermore, part of external research procedure is strategic

foresight, which evolved already 100 years ago but is now gaining increasing importance. Focus

of this practice lies in finding out about market trends and technological changes and preparing

an organization for the short-term or long-term future (Iden, Methlie & Christensen, 2017, p.

88). The importance of such advanced methods and the research in the topic of strategic analysis

derived from modifying circumstances in the environment. Two forces which are currently

influencing economy are globalization and dynamism (Verbeke, Coeurdoy & Matt, 2018, p.

1101; Du & Chen, 2018, p. 42). Thus, external environment is impacted which is an essential

research part of strategic analysis (Grant, 2016, p. 65). The aim of this master thesis is to

investigate the effects on strategic analysis which have been triggered through global and

dynamic influences in the environment. Furthermore, purpose is to display current approach to

the process of strategic analysis done by interviewed parties. Both theoretical framework and

empirical research show matching results within this topic and therefore interpretation can be

validated.

Strategic analysis as such has been existing for several years and practiced by experts and

management consultants. The internal analysis supports an organization in knowing the

strengths and weaknesses of the company itself and which parts should be improved (Cadle,

Paul & Turner, 2010, p. 9). Furthermore, external analysis gives an outlook about the current

situation in an operating environment and with the support of strategic foresight, information

about arising future trends is given (Coates, Durance, & Godet, 2010, p. 1424; Rohrbeck &

Etingue, 2018, p. 105). Nevertheless, the awareness to the practice of strategic analysis has

increased extremely within the last years. Reasons for that may have been the dynamic and fast-

changing environmental forces including economic fluctuations or evolving trends which are

constantly incorporated by consumers (Sarpong & Maclean, 2016, p. 2812). Furthermore, also

the current globalization led to markets gaining in size, movement across countries, rising

competition and increasing uncertainty for organizations (Masteikiene & Venckuviene, 2015,

p. 1087).


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Empirical research in this master thesis is conducted by a qualitative procedure with the

intention of an inductive approach. Consulting firms have been addressed with the reason of an

up to date knowledge in several sectors concerning the field of strategy and especially strategic

analysis. Findings from qualitative research are based on seven interviews with consultants.

Detailed presentation of consulting companies is given using fictive names due to anonymity

reasons. Furthermore, five crucial topics which are frequently discussed in interviews are

explained including change in strategic analysis within time, current techniques and methods

adopted, further challenges arising today, opportunities which appear and internal capabilities

which should be incorporated according to interview participants.

Overall, agreement between qualitative part of study and theory is found in the context of

globalization. Influence triggered by affecting global forces leads to external surroundings

becoming larger and also internal operations of a firm getting more complex (James & Bennett,

2014, p. 316). This requires broader research in strategic analysis. Traditional techniques are

not appropriate anymore and require additional adjustments (Schwarz, 2009, p. 291; Wright,

Blettner, & Paroutis, 2013, p. 94). In current situation, the consideration of a global layer is

fundamental in the research process, this stands in line with theory and empirical research (H.

Thomas, Pollock, & Gorman, 1999; Williams & Rittenberg, 1998). Furthermore, comparison

of countries and markets requires adoption of local ground rules and values in order to

understand the behaviour. In this regard, a global network facilitates the process when analysing

those factors (Lessard, 2014, p. 87ff).

Moreover, traditional methods of strategic analysis have been referencing to stable figures as

market share or consumers’ preferences. Therefore, when competing in a dynamic

environment, which is as globalization, rather not possible to avoid, potential future changes

need to be taken into account. As a result, analysed factors cannot be conceived as stable (Helfat

& Martin, 2015, p. 1282) and dynamic mindset needs to be incorporated (D’Aveni, Dagnino,

& Smith, 2010). A dynamic environment is driven by technological developments,

hypercompetitive markets and fast-changing consumer minds which are adopting to current

trends (Alkhafaji, 2013). In such situations dynamic capabilities are required. Agility, flexibility

and fast reaction should be incorporated in the strategic analysis process when coping with a

dynamic environment.


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Findings from qualitative research and theory agree on the growing importance of strategic

foresight. Foresight as an advanced technique, already addresses the issue of planning into the

future. Nevertheless, traditional strategic analysis methods for internal and external

environment may also need to be changed or supplemented to work suitably in dynamic and

global environments (René Rohrbeck & Etingue, 2018, p. 105; Wright et al., 2013, p. 94).

Traditional models which have been adopted in a static environment find adjustments or the

supplement of a future dimension (Johnson, Whittington, Scholes, Angwin, & Regner, 2017,

p. 58; Sammut-Bonnici, 2015, p. 2). Frameworks of strategic foresight are fundamental aspects

of strategic analysis today. Findings from theory and qualitative research show that most

frequent tools in this field are adopted for understanding and displaying the results regarding

potential future events (Smith & Saritas, 2011; Saritas 2006).

With contemplation of found outcomes in this field, it can be proven that a global and dynamic

environment influences strategic analysis in several ways. Strategists need to shift from

traditional and static approach to a dynamic, emergent and agile procedure. Numerous factors

have to be kept in mind when analysing the environment where an organization is operating.

Furthermore, with the support of given answers in the empirical research an overall approach

to strategic analysis can be withdrawn and interpreted. In general, the process consists of four

fundamental steps: preparation, scan, vision and selection. Basically, there is no sequence of

which step to conduct first and frequency of adoption of phases also depends on the aim of

strategic analysis.

To sum up, findings of this master thesis show the current approach to strategic analysis.

Nonetheless, it should be considered that there is no best way in conducting this practice.

Furthermore, required measures and steps are dependent on the client and the firm’s situation.

In current times it is difficult to predict the future and thus a general procedure is not existing

in this field. However, several parallels could be found in this paper and on the basis of those

the research question could be answered. No one knows what future events might bring and

how globalization and dynamism will evolve. But with the adoption of a thorough strategic

analysis incorporated into routine activities, organizations have the advantage of a broader

overview about surrounding happenings.


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Table of Content List of Figures ............................................................................................................ 9

List of Tables ........................................................................................................... 10

List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................... 10

1.Introduction .......................................................................................................... 11

1.1 Scope .............................................................................................................. 11

1.2 Objectives ....................................................................................................... 13

1.3 Structure of the Thesis ................................................................................... 13

2. Strategic Management Process ............................................................................ 14

2.1 Overview of Strategic Management Process ................................................. 14

2.2 Static Strategic Management Process ............................................................ 15

2.2.1 Planning School ....................................................................................... 16

2.2.2 Positioning School ................................................................................... 17

2.2.3 Design School .......................................................................................... 17

2.2.4 Criticism on Static Model ........................................................................ 18

2.3 Dynamic Strategic Management Process ....................................................... 18

2.4 Strategic Analysis .......................................................................................... 20

2.4.1 The business environment ....................................................................... 21

2.4.2 Environmental Scanning ......................................................................... 22

3. Global Environment ............................................................................................ 24

3.1 Definition Globalization ................................................................................ 24

3.2 Globalization Factors ..................................................................................... 25

3.3 Global Forces Influencing Strategic Analysis ............................................... 31

3.3.1 Global environment ................................................................................. 31


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3.3.2 Global Strategic Management ................................................................. 32

3.3.2 Global Strategic Analysis ........................................................................ 32

3.4 Case Studies ................................................................................................... 34

4. Dynamic Environment ......................................................................................... 37

4.1 Definition Dynamism ..................................................................................... 37

4.2 Dynamic Forces ............................................................................................. 38

4.3 Dynamic Forces Influencing Strategic Analysis ............................................ 40

4.3.1 Dynamic Environment ............................................................................. 41

4.3.2 Dynamic Strategic Management ............................................................. 44

4.3.3 Dynamic Strategic Analysis .................................................................... 45

4.4 Case Studies ................................................................................................... 46

5. Strategic Analysis ................................................................................................ 49

5.1 External Analysis ........................................................................................... 50

5.2 Foresight ......................................................................................................... 50

5.3 Tools of Strategic Analysis ............................................................................ 53

5.3.1 External Analysis Tools .......................................................................... 54

5.3.2 Strategic Foresight Tools ......................................................................... 59

5.4 Case Studies ................................................................................................... 65

6. Methodology ........................................................................................................ 69

6.1 Research Design ............................................................................................. 69

6.2 Research Approach ........................................................................................ 69

6.3 Measures ........................................................................................................ 70

6.3.1 Structure of Interviews ............................................................................ 70

6.3.2 Sample ..................................................................................................... 71

6.4 Analysis .......................................................................................................... 72


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6.4.1 Content Analysis ..................................................................................... 72

6.4.2 Coding ..................................................................................................... 72

6.4.3 Discussion of Method .............................................................................. 73

7. Research Findings ................................................................................................ 74

7.1 Overall Findings ............................................................................................. 74

7.2 Crucial topics discussed in Interviews ........................................................... 83

7.2.1 Change in Strategic Analysis Process within Time ................................. 83

7.2.2 Current Techniques and Methods in Strategic Analysis ......................... 85

7.2.3 Further Challenges Arising Today .......................................................... 87

7.2.4 Opportunities Arising Today ................................................................... 91

7.2.5 Internal Capabilities ................................................................................. 93

8. Discussion ............................................................................................................ 95

8.1 Comparison with Theory ............................................................................... 95

8.2 Summary ...................................................................................................... 101

9. Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 103

9.1 Practical Implications ................................................................................... 104

9.2 Limitations and Future Research ................................................................. 104

References ............................................................................................................. 105

Appendix I ............................................................................................................. 122

Appendix II ............................................................................................................ 160


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List of Figures Fig. 1: David’s Strategic Management Process ................................................. 17

Fig. 2: Design School – Strategic Management Process .................................... 18

Fig. 3: Deliberate and Emergent Strategy .......................................................... 19

Fig. 4: The business environment ...................................................................... 22

Fig. 5: Four scanning modes .............................................................................. 23

Fig. 6: Globally Competitive Environment ........................................................ 32

Fig. 7: Forces affecting a corporation ................................................................ 42

Fig. 8: Strategic Foresight in Strategic Analysis Process ................................... 52

Fig. 9: The upper and lower cones of a PS-RO .................................................. 53

Fig. 10: Strategy process: architecture, action and adaptation ........................... 54

Fig. 11: Layers of the business environment ...................................................... 56

Fig. 12: Foresight Tools ..................................................................................... 60

Fig. 13: Classification of Foresight Methods ..................................................... 61

Fig. 14: Process and Timeline Overview ........................................................... 66

Fig. 15: Grounded Theory .................................................................................. 70

Fig. 16: Strategic analysis in a global, dynamic business environment ........... 101

Fig. 17: Summary of Strategic Analysis Process ............................................. 102


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List of Tables Tab. 1: US primary energy consumption from 1975-2018 ................................ 30 Tab. 2: Coffee consumption per head of population, 2014 ................................ 35 Tab. 3: Leading chains of coffee shops in the US, 2014 .................................... 35 Tab. 4: Occurrence of Foresight Methods in Publications ................................. 62 Tab. 5: Collision avoidance safety technologies relevant to crash type ............. 67 Tab. 6: Interview Partners .................................................................................. 71

List of Abbreviations e.g…………………..……………………………………………...example given

IoT……………………………………………………………...Internet of Things

et al………………………………………………………..…...et alia (and others)

etc………………….............................................................et cetera (and so forth)

fig………………….......................................................................................figure

p……………………………………………………………………………...page

pp……………………………………………………………………………pages


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1.Introduction

1.1 Scope

Within the last few years, the way businesses operate has been changing constantly and

evolution of new strategies happened. Striving to receive the best results, companies face a high

number of challenges and after all want to perform superior compared to their competitors

(Schoenberg, Collier & Bowman, 2013, p. 250). According to fast changing environments and

therefore shifts within markets, businesses have to adapt to the circumstances and develop a

strategic model with the option to be flexible (Alcacer, 2015, p. 4). The practice of strategic

management enables a company to analyse, understand and plan towards the development of a

strategy (Papulova & Gazova, 2016, p. 577).

Within the business environment differentiating from competitors becomes more difficult due

to high competition, uncertain environments and the fit with customers’ demands, just to

mention a few (Verbeke et al., 2018, p. 1102). It has been shown that through the investigation

of strategic analysis in the internal and external environment of a company, strategic planning

is facilitated (Wolf & Floyd, 2017, p. 1755). With a successful strategy implementation

companies may minimize or even overcome those challenges mentioned above (Grant, 2016,

p. 16). A strategy exists on three levels: Corporate, business and functional. Therefore, the

analysis is a complex process happening on various stages with the usage of various tools and

techniques (Savanevicien, Merkys & Vaitkevicius, 2006, p. 101). Furthermore, it has to be

mentioned that strategic analysis plays a crucial role in the development of a strategy, but also

in decision making of managers (Helfat & Martin, 2015, p. 1307). Nowadays economic markets

underly some trends in the contemporary business environment. Due to the changing

surrounding companies gain new opportunities. On the other hand, the process of such an

analysis gets more challenging due to these changes (Papula & Gazova, 2016, p. 572). First of

all, economic globalization is a current issue which triggers cross-border movements of goods,

services, technology and capital (Verbeke et. al., 2018, p. 1102). Due to growing facilitation of

doing business abroad, the size of a company’s operations becomes larger (Savrul, Incekara &

Sener, 2014, p. 43). Therefore, markets become more competitive and companies start moving

in international areas. Hence, strategies focus more on a global basis with a tendency to either

adaptation or standardization (Ghemawat, 2007).


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Another contemporary matter, which receives increasing awareness, is the dynamism of a

business environment which has been rising due to the development of new innovations, the

increased use of information technologies and global scope of an organisation’s operations

(Teece, 2007). Business environments appear to be dynamic because of the changes which

happen in a faster way. Moreover, through these changes, new trends which have not been

known before and rapid innovations are delivered (Papula & Gazova, 2016, p. 573). Because

of the dynamic surroundings, companies are forced to carry out modifications and inventions

in their business models (Prajogo, 2015, p. 242) and some of these dynamic capabilities which

have conducted as a consequence are expansion into new regions or decision making in

uncertain situations (Teece, 2018, p. 48). As already mentioned, uncertainty is an essential

factor for companies when doing business in global and dynamic environments (Teece, 2014,

p. 9). The internal and external investigation of the surroundings lacks competent information

(Kaarboe, Gooderham & Norreklit, 2013). The more complex a company’s structure the more

challenging it gets to become certainty about the environment (Merrit, Heffernan & Redmond,

2015). Nevertheless, dynamism and uncertainty open up new market niches and opportunities

for companies when knowing how to deal with it (Lumpkin and Dess, 2001).

Recently companies have been facing a high number of challenges which differ from those a

few years ago. In order to minimize them a suitable strategy for a firm’s internal and external

environment should be established (Grant, 2016, p. 26). The traditional set of tools which has

been always used for strategic analysis may not be appropriate anymore for companies

operating in a global, dynamic business environment. The evolvement of new ways in doing

business has effects on strategy establishment. These changes and dynamics force companies

to innovate business models but before doing so an applicable set of analysing techniques has

to be applied (Teece, 2018, p. 41). There is existing research about the global focus of strategies

(Ghemawat, 2007) and business models having dynamic capabilities (Helfat & Martin, 2015,

p. 1281). Nevertheless, the success may lay in the foundation of a strategy, which is the analysis

that comes as one of the initial steps for strategy managers. Therefore, research is needed in

this field (Wright et al., 2013, p. 119).


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1.2 Objectives

This study aims at finding out how the procedure of strategic analysis in a global, dynamic

business environment is different to the traditional investigation. The main objective of the

thesis is to describe the current analysis strategy and their tools and methods used by companies

in such environments nowadays.

Due to these gaps, the purpose of the study is to offer further insights for current and future

strategy managers and to build a more detailed knowledge about the globalization and

dynamism of environments. Furthermore, the paper should show the strategic analysis

procedure after those influences within environments. Thus, the research question is defined

as:

“How does a global, dynamic business environment affect(change) strategic analysis of a

company?”

1.3 Structure of the Thesis

This master thesis starts with a brief introduction into the topic including the objectives of the

research and the research question. The following chapter (chapter 2) presents the first part of

the literature review which first displays an overview of strategic management and the subparts

of this topic, with a short introduction into strategic analysis. In the next chapter (chapter 3), an

overview about global environment and the influence on strategic analysis will be stated.

Followed by (chapter 4) a description of dynamic environment and the impact on the practice

of analysis in strategic management. In the last part of the literature review (chapter 5) strategic

analysis will be presented in more detail with the description of external analysis and strategic

foresight tools. The methodology (chapter 6) will be explained together with the sample and

analysis technique which connects the literature review with the empirical part of the paper. In

the seventh chapter every interrogated party will be presented separately with the display of

strategic analysis process and opinions about globalization and dynamism. Afterwards, further

research findings will be shown. In chapter eight comparison with theory is given and the main

findings will be summarized. Section nine is going to be the last point of the master thesis with

a conclusion, limitations of the study and practical implications for businesses.


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2. Strategic Management Process

Companies demand to have a strategy which fits to their business model and directs business

operations towards a firm’s objectives (Teece, 2010, p. 174). In detail, a strategy defines the

long-term direction of a company’s processes (Johnson, Whittington, Scholes, Angwin, &

Regner, 2017, p. 3). The definition of strategy is various and has been pointed out by well-

known strategy theorists. According to Michael Porter, a strategy is the distinction from

competitors, being different either in price or quality aspects (Porter, 1996, p. 10). Furthermore,

Alfred Chandler defines strategy as “the determination of the basic long-term goals and

objectives of an enterprise, and the adoption of courses of action and the allocation of resources

for carrying out these goals.” (Chandler, 1962). Mintzberg, describes the key term in his book

“The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning” as a pattern which emerges from decisions made

according to occurrences (Mintzberg, 1994). Even though, definitions are slightly differing

from each other, the idea of adopting a strategy into the business process remains equal (Teece,

2010, p. 174). This first chapter of the literature review will give an overview of the strategic

management process. The aim of section two is to provide a basic understanding about strategic

management process, the different types and parts incorporated in this practice. Therefore, in

the first part (chapter 2.1) an overview will be given, followed by an explanation of the static

(chapter 2.2) and dynamic (chapter 2.3) strategic management process. To conclude the first

part of literature review, a short description of strategic analysis will be presented (chapter 2.4)

to be able to discuss and refer to this practice in the following chapters.

2.1 Overview of Strategic Management Process

Before the establishment of a strategy there are several steps which have to be taken into

consideration. First of all, an organisation has to be seen as a complex structure, operating in

complex markets. According to Ansoff et al. (2019, p. 4) contingency theory is applied, which

means that there is no perfect approach how to organize a company or in which direction to go,

but to be dependent on internal and external situations and surroundings (Ansoff et al., 2019,

p. 4). The collection of processes and activities, which are performed on the basis of a strategy,

is called strategic management. In management activity of an organization, decisions will be

undertaken according to steps which fulfil short- to long-term objectives (David, 2013, p. 6).


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In more detail, objectives and goals are defined for the organization. The vision and mission

are key definitions for an organization. Furthermore, the activities and processes are about the

formulation, implementation and evaluation of decisions towards a strategy (Ansoff et al., 2019,

p.12).

Nevertheless, it has to be taken into consideration that strategy has three levels in an

organization. First, corporate strategy defines the overall direction of the company with the

identification of operating markets. Second, business strategy is more specified regarding

processes within a market and the performance activities of separate business units within a

company. The third level, which directs daily processes of an organization, is functional

strategy. Goals on a functional position have to be met, with the coordination of teams within

and among business units (Johnson et al., 2017, p.106).

2.2 Static Strategic Management Process

The process of developing a strategy has been researched and strived to facilitate with the

support of models. These frameworks have static paradigm, which means that the strategy

formation process can be seen as a set of steps, with all of them resulting in the creation and

implementation of a strategy. Strategy has been seen as the result of a „controlled, conscious

planning process” with clear procedures for a longer period of time (Lan, 2009, p. 52).

Therefore, the beneath explained models which have been used for many years until now

presume that the environment where a company operates in, is stable and can be predicted.

Furthermore, the process requires that information is easily available for strategy managers. On

the basis of this information, appropriate decisions for a strategy can be initiated (Alkhafaji,

2013, p. 19).

Within the past years, several types of strategic management process have evolved on the basis

of schools of thought. Those developed methods, where ten had been identified, were organized

into three groups by Mintzberg, Ahlstrand and Lampel (1998): Prescriptive, Descriptive and

Configurational. The emphasis on how strategies are formulated falls under prescriptive type.

Three schools are involved in this concept, which are planning, positioning and design.

Furthermore, descriptive includes six schools which are entrepreneurial, cognitive, learning,

power, cultural and environmental.


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This theory highlights how strategies are made by individuals. Configurational represents a

single school with the same name which combines the theory of descriptive and prescriptive.

Prescriptive school identified the formulation of strategy which distinguishes between

planning, design and positioning type (Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, & Lampel, 1998, p. 3ff). This

paper will only concentrate on the three schools of thought which are of prescriptive nature, as

this theory focuses on how strategies should be formulated and this paper emphasizes the first

part in strategic management, namely strategic analysis, which falls under formulation process.

2.2.1 Planning School

The planning school was derived by Ansoff (1965) in his book Corporate Strategy. In this

model a number of steps leads from analysis to the realization of a strategy. Setting objectives,

external and internal audit, evaluation of strategy and finally, operationalization are conducted

stages according to planning model (Sadler, 2003, p. 16). According to Mintzberg et al. (1998,

p. 55) for the establishment of a strategy, common method is to divide the process into several

steps, which leans on the school of planning. The setting of goals, including vision and mission,

is conducted in the first place. Afterwards, the audit stage can be entered, where an analysis of

the company’s environment, which is divided into external and internal, is investigated. On the

basis of this analysis, further steps are conducted. In the operationalization stage, the formulated

strategy is going to be implemented with planned programs and procedures. As a last step, every

planning phase is brought together into a single strategic planning process (Mintzberg et al.,

1998, p. 59). With conduction of the planning model, which has been used frequently in the

past, another step has been added after strategy implementation, which is strategic control. The

approach concentrates on the evaluation of the already implemented strategy. In the case of

difficulties, the goal of this additional action is to have the possibility to go back to previous

steps and investigate where the problem comes from (Wheelen, Hunger, Hoffman, & Bamford,

2018, p. 15). The below displayed figure of David shows a strategic management process of

the planning school with the four before explained steps (David, 2013, p. 46).


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Fig. 1: David’s Strategic Management Process (David, 2013, p. 46)

2.2.2 Positioning School

Furthermore, positioning school has been leaning on publication Competitive Strategy (1980)

and Competitive Advantage (1985) of Porter. In strategic management the development of a

strategy is crucial in order to diversify in the market (Porter, 1989, p. 234). His meaning was

that in every given industry there is only a modest number of key strategy types which are

desirable. Therefore, in this model the formulation of strategy is based on a generic position in

the framework of Porter added to the previous schools of thought. Cost leadership,

differentiation, cost focus and differentiation focus are tactics an organization follows in order

to be superior compared to competitors (Sadler, 2003, p. 17). Positioning school requires an

analytical technique to develop a strategy, mostly with the support of an analyst generic

positions can be chosen by the manager (Mintzberg et al., 1998, p. 84)

2.2.3 Design School

In comparison with the above-mentioned schools, design is a non-complex model focusing on

a balance between internal and external factors. This type of thought evolved as a result from

the textbook Business Policy: Text and Cases from Harvard Business School (1965), followed

by Leadership in Administration from Philip Selznick (1957) and Strategy and Structure from

Alfred D. Chandler (1962) (Sadler, 2003, p. 18). As already mentioned, the positioning of a

company through its strategy is undertaken after the investigation of internal qualification and

external threats and opportunities. As can be seen in figure two below, the process starts with

an external and an internal appraisal on both sides.


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Fig. 2: Design School – Strategic Management Process (Mintzberg et al., 1998, p. 26)

A thorough research of these appraisals will lead to the creation of a strategy. With the influence

of social responsibility and managerial values, established strategy concepts will be evaluated

and one appropriate will be chosen, which leads in further steps to the implementation of

selected strategy (Mintzberg et al., 1998, p. 26).

2.2.4 Criticism on Static Model

Even though, static paradigm has been used for several years by marketers and companies,

critics have evolved for this theory. Primarily, a major limitation is the view on environment

being stable and predictable. Unplanned situations may occur and with dynamic changes in

surroundings, static procedures are more difficult to apply (Lan, 2009, p. 56). Another criticism

is the time constraint in strategic decision-making, when having a process with determined

steps. Furthermore, with growing complexity of environments, the setting of a long-term plan

becomes challenging and therefore, actions like analysis, decision-making and implementation

of strategy need to be conducted more frequently and on a regular basis (Pricop, 2012, p. 102).

2.3 Dynamic Strategic Management Process

On the contrast of static strategic management process, dynamic type has been added as a

supplement consisting of different characteristics. After the first half of the twentieth century,

ongoing changes in the environment led to the development of modern technologies and to the

characterization of an unstable and unpredictable world which demands advanced and suitable

approaches (Papulova & Gazova, 2016, p. 574).


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The dynamic framework has emerged by irrational school of thought, which denounced the

rational school with the static paradigm of being too predictable and easy-going. Moreover, the

clear separation between strategy formulation and implementation was perceived as wrong

(Lan, 2009, p. 59). Processes have to be realised as complex and environments need to be

perceived as dynamic (Montgomery, 2008, p.55). Even Mintzberg who has been dealing with

the static process for several years, sees the dynamic model as an appropriate explanation of

corporate strategy and therefore, combines rational and irrational school (Lan, 2009, p. 59).

In this regard, strategy shifts from planned to an emergent process. According to Mintzberg and

Waters (1985, p. 260) dynamic strategy process incorporates the emergent strategy approach as

displayed in figure three. This means that there are still deliberate actions and steps included,

but with the addition of an emerged bottom-up method that is being influenced by the

environment. The difference to the static model is that predetermined steps will not be taken in

the defined order, but as suggested by environment or management. In this regard, the analysis

of internal and external environment is extremely important in order to sustain emerging

occurrences. Therefore, the techniques of analysis and communication are crucial for the

outcomes of strategy implementation (Alkhafaji, 2013, p. 19).

Fig. 3: Deliberate and Emergent Strategy (Mintzberg & Waters, 1985, p. 260)


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2.4 Strategic Analysis

In the process of strategic management, analysis is a crucial phase in order to gain knowledge

about the internal and external environment a company is operating in (Cadle et al., 2010, p. 9).

The practice of strategic analysis in general is compared with the framework of SWOT, which

contrasts internal strengths and weaknesses to external opportunities and threats (Phadermrod,

Crowder, & Wills, 2019, p. 194). As the topic of strategy is very broad, this paper will focus

on the stage of analysis only and within this practice the focus will be put on external analysis

as this part becomes greatly influenced by the environment. The procedure of strategic analysis

draws a review of a company’s internal and external environment. In the case of external

analysis, the information gathered is derived from scanning and analysing. After the analysing

phase, strategic investigators compare internal organizational dynamics to external industry

characteristics (Ghazinoory & Azadegan-Mehr, 2011, p. 24).

This is important as an organization will entail proactive internal behaviour towards the

situation in the current environment (Aragón-Correa & A. Rubio-López, 2007; Lopez-Gamero

& Molina-Azorin, 2016, p. 747). Nonetheless, a thorough investigation of external environment

is challenging and has been practiced since several years. External strategic analysis is a crucial

part of strategic management which enables an organization to gain useful information about

the structure and ongoing changes in an environment (Gupta, 2013, p. 34).

All in all, the advantages and key points why strategic analysis is an essential part in every

strategic management process will be summed up in three points. The first reason is when

having necessary information about the external environment, greater problems signalized as

threats can be prevented in advance by defensive actions (Bhardwaj & Kumar, 2014, p. 41).

The practice of the identification of threats is also called “strategic issue management” or

“strategic surprise management” (Silberzahn & Jones, 2014, p. 5). Furthermore, new

opportunities can be sensed earlier and strategic decision making may be supported with a

comprehensive external analysis (Papulova & Gazova, 2016, p. 572). The third reason for the

importance of strategic analysis is not only the recognition of opportunities but also the

information timeliness of new arising trends and the fact of performing according to

environmental circumstances (Liao, 2018, p. 1495). This chapter has only given a short

presentation of the practice of strategic analysis. Nonetheless, more detailed insights are found

in the following chapters and especially in chapter five.


21

2.4.1 The business environment

Before being able to scan and analyse the environment, managers need to know about the

constellation of the surroundings which may have an influence on the business. The business

environment brings opportunities and threats for marketers (Johnson, Whittington, Scholes,

Angwin, & Regner, 2017, p. 33). A business environment is defined as “an environment that

tends, shape the outlook, and goal of the organization by placing constraints on them.”

(Eruemegbe, 2015, p. 479;Oghojafor, 1999) As strategic analysis strives to examine internal

and external factors, the constellation of the surrounding settings with belonging aspects has to

be taken into consideration (Johnson, Whittington, Scholes, Angwin, & Regner, 2017, p. 33).

According to (Wheelen, Hunger, Hoffman, & Bamford, 2018, p. 16) an organization’s

environment consists of four layers, as shown in figure four. In the very middle where the

company is, the surroundings include structure of the business according to company culture.

Furthermore, resources are also part of this so-called internal environment where strengths and

weaknesses of a firm are examined. The next layer is task environment which closely orbits the

company. In this level corresponding industry is relevant where the consideration of various

parties takes place. Shareholders, competitors, customers, suppliers, etc. are essential for an

organization and may have influence regarding activities of a company. Moreover, societal

environment embraces the latter discussed layers. Socio-cultural, economic, political-legal and

technological forces are part of this macro surrounding. It impacts the total economy as a whole.

The very outward level is the natural physical environment which describes the atmosphere

including climate, physical resources and wildlife. Even this layer receives awareness, as the

earth generates resources for businesses and human beings which can be manufactured, sold or

distributed (Wheelen et al., 2018, p. 16).


22

Fig. 4: The business environment (Wheelen et al., 2018, p. 16)

2.4.2 Environmental Scanning

In order to gather information about the internal and external surroundings, scanning is used as

a common method (du Toit, 2016, p. 18). Environmental scanning is also defined as “the

collection and use of information about events, trends and relationships in an organization’s

external environment.” (Bhardwaj & Kumar, 2014, p. 40) Another definition of this process is

“the gathering and interpreting of information and using the results in strategic planning

process.” (Lau, Liao, Wong & Chiu, 2012, p. 1239) Furthermore, it collects, analyses and

delivers information for the purpose of strategy development. In the first place, scanning is

operated to learn about political, economic, social and cultural conditions within the market,

which are part of the societal environment. Those areas are important to investigate in order to

perform according to certain legal rules (Liao, 2018, p. 1496). Secondly, the monitoring of task

environment is essential for strategic decisions to sustain the knowledge about developments

in the industry (Alkhafaji, 2013, p. 80).

In the process of environmental scanning, costs are accumulated on a direct or indirect basis.

Direct costs involve the method of scanning process through a consultant, the buying of journals

or the time invested in seeking information. On the other hand, indirect costs can occur when

wrong information is being tracked down or when decision on appropriate research fails

(Alkhafaji, 2013, p. 81).


23

In the case of costs, also time of analysis is essential. Researchers must know when the search

of information should be finalized or if further research is still necessary. In this regard, four

factors can be taken into consideration. First, limited amount of time can decide about the length

of scanning process. Furthermore, the consequences of the taken decision which may result as

profit or loss can determine when to end. Third reason to stop the scanning process may be if

the information is appropriate for the current purpose or if future problems may be better

addressed. Another factor which controls the time spent on scanning process is the researcher

itself. Already possessing knowledge or skills determine the path and length of analysis

(Alkhafaji, 2013, p. 82).

As known from research, also in the scanning process there is the possibility of researching

primary and secondary data. The detailed technique in scanning certainly differs from company

to company and is also dependent on the country-of-origin (du Toit, 2016, p.18). Environmental

scanning provides essential support for strategy managers in the analysing process (Liao, 2018,

p.1495). According to Daft et. al. (1998) and figure five below, there is a breakdown of four

scanning modes. Information can either be received internally vs. externally on an either

personal or impersonal basis. Studies suggest that the easiness of accessibility of knowledge is

less important for managers than the quality of research. Nevertheless, it could be proved that

personal sources for information are preferred compared to impersonal ones (Aldehayyat, 2015,

p. 450).

Fig. 5: Four scanning modes (Daft et. al., 1998, p. 124)


24

3. Global Environment

This chapter will introduce the phenomenon of globalization. The reason for the investigation

into the topic is following as globalization has been influencing our globe by different aspects

(Verbeke, Coeurderoy, & Matt, 2018, p. 1101). Thus, this multidimensional process also

changes the economy and the environment where companies operate. Through these

modifications in environmental settings, the scope of strategic analysis become larger as for

example decreasing barriers of trade lead to performing of companies across countries (Athreye

& Cantwell, 2007, p. 12). Chapter three will present globalization overall including definitions

(chapter 3.1) and examples (chapter 3.2) with a further subchapter of globalization influencing

the practice of strategic analysis (chapter 3.3). The section will conclude by presenting a case

study of Starbucks and MAM baby products illustrating this topic (chapter 3.4).

3.1 Definition Globalization

Operations across countries or even continents are a result of globalization which is currently

happening on the globe. Trade barriers being disestablished and increasing flows of people,

investment and information have been enabled as a consequence of this phenomenon (Beck,

2018, p. 9). The term globalization can be traced back to the year 1930. Since then, there have

been waves of globalization and de-globalization. In detail, the phrase globalization means an

increase in globalism. Whereas, globalism carries the sense of three changes which are growth

in density of networks, increase in institutional velocity and rise of transnational participation

(Keohane and Nye, 2000, p. 105). Several definitions have been developed to describe the

complex term of globalization.

“Globalization is a process by which we come to experience, or become aware of, the world as

a single place.” (Robertson, 1992;Steger, 2017, p. 16)

“..understood as the phenomenon by which markets and production in different countries are

becoming increasingly interdependent due to the dynamics of trade in goods and services and

the flows of capital and technology.” (OECD, 1993, p.7)

“Globalization can be defined as the increasing interaction among and integration of diverse

human societies in all important dimensions of their activities – economic, social, political,

cultural and religious.” (Aninat, 2002)


25

With the presentation of the above three definitions, it can be said that every single one of them

is explaining globalization in a different way, but with the same key message, being that the

world is getting treated as a single place, either on an economic or human basis (Coner,

Bukovinski, & Stros, 2014, p. 427). Through globalization, terms as “internationalization” and

“universalization” appeared. Furthermore, new phrases evolved like “westernization or

“Americanization”. These words describe a global shift towards the western or American

culture. Also, “McDonaldization” has been more and more used. First of all, as a result of

Americanization and McDonald’s being associated with the United States and second, because

of the distribution of fast food chains all over the world (Alcacer, 2019, p. 10). Cultures and

habits are transforming to a standardized one with a focus on the Western world including

Europe and North America. These areas have a great power on the rest of the world regarding

influence of behaviour (Verbeke et al., 2018, p. 1101). This may also be a reason why the world

is becoming treated as a single place because behaviours are equalizing, and cultural difference

are getting less (Masovic, 2018, p. 2).

3.2 Globalization Factors

Globalization as a force is also having impacting consequences on the economic business

environment. Several aspects in economic purpose are being treated differently since current

increasing globalism (Masteikiene & Venckuviene, 2015, p. 1087). Nearly all companies are

able to conduct business on a global basis. Even small and local firms are facing globalization

aspects and production and distribution of goods is developing towards a worldwide basis

(Savrul, Incekara, & Sener, 2014, p. 36). Through the current globalization wave, eight factors

are seen as essential in the development of this revolution. Beneath these mentioned eight

factors are described in more detail.

Multinational Corporations

First of all, multinational corporations are businesses which are conducting business beyond

the borders of their country (Ristovska & Ristovska, 2014, p. 84). Recently, they have been

spreading all over the globe due to cheaper production and cost opportunities. Furthermore,

these enterprises own considerable power and with the investments undertaken by their home

countries those gain benefits (Bouquet and Birkinshaw, 2011, p. 244). An additional reason for

crossing of borders is due to a strategic need in order to sustain economic growth (Ristovska &

Ristovska, 2014, p. 84; Ansoff, 1984).


26

MNC therefore play a crucial role in this phenomenon as with foreign direct investments

undertaken by them in a host country, the economy will be boosted in a foreign nation. Through

outsourcing of production plants, new job opportunities will be created and costs for the

company reduced. Moreover, with the establishment of further plants or subsidiaries in a

foreign country, the knowledge of an organization and their skills can be transferred (Athreye

and Cantwell, 2007, p. 211).

Trade Liberalization

Furthermore, globalization leads to the abolishment of trade barriers and therefore,

collaborations with different markets are set more easily. This facilitation of transactions offers

many opportunities for countries as for example the exchange of products. Resources can be

used more efficiently, adoption of economies of scale is possible and further advantages with

the restructuring of organization towards trading with other countries are contingent

(Masteikiene & Venckuviene, 2015, p. 1087). The removed or reduced barriers from trade are

tariffs, like surcharges and duties, and nontariffs, including quotas and licensing, through which

free trade is being empowered. Throughout the reduction of trade boundaries, costs can be

saved on the side of countries which are performing internationally. Globalization led to a

considerable increase in exports, in more detail 25% of world production is being exported

(Surugiu & Surugiu, 2015, p. 131). The high number of exports and growth in free trade leads

to increased competition in the home market and the possibility of lower quality products

entering the country. Nevertheless, both consumers and firms have the possibility to choose

from a wide range of goods (Masteikiene & Venckuviene, 2015, p. 1087).

Service Trade Liberalization

The economic activity has shifted its focuses in times of globalization. The trend of service

sector increased compared to manufacturing industry. According to a research of the World

Bank (2015) the labour force in services increased from 2001 until 2004 by 3% (Masteikiene

& Venckuviene, 2015, p. 1090). The key skill in service sector is knowledge, therefore

outstanding qualifications are required. One of several reasons for individuals moving from

their home countries into a foreign state happens because of qualified competencies. As it is the

case in India, where IT-skilled parties are outsourced due to their outstanding knowledge in this

field. Other service areas like financing, communication, consulting, transport, healthcare, etc.

have also shown a rapid growth rate within the last years (Banga & Goldar, 2007, p. 2770).


27

According to another study it has been found that services were accounting up to 75% of GDP

and 85% of employment in OECD countries in 2015 (Nordås & Rouzet, 2017, p. 1157). As

services are in most cases also indirectly included in manufactured goods, the focus on

improvement of service skills also leads to higher productivity and therefore economic growth

(Brakman, Dietzenbacher, & Bohn, 2018, p. 2747).

Financial Liberalization

With the emergence of technologies in the financial sector, capital flows have increased across

markets. Also, exchange rates were unified, and the control of monetary transactions was

eliminated. Due to the dynamic financing possibilities also, more risks increased for companies

depending on the situation (Masteikiene & Venckuviene, 2015, p. 1091). As the phenomenon

of financial liberalization has already been existing for 100 years, the current situation can be

seen as greatly more evolved, since only a slight number of countries engaged in the crossing

border of capital flows. With this liberalization the world financial system can be better

established and developing countries are supported by becoming more stable and integrated

financial markets (Causevic, 2017, p. 94).

Competition

As globalization enables collaboration of companies from different countries, competition

increases naturally. Even firms which are not operating on an international basis, face the threat

of more competitors coming from all over the globe. Therefore, the liberalization of trade and

financial activities does not only bring along advantages (Masteikiene & Venckuviene, 2015,

p. 1091). Through current globalization, companies have the opportunity to focus besides a

local strategy on a global one (Enright, 2000, p. 304). Tighter competition because of

globalization may boost home companies to improve their business models and adapt to

superior players in the market (Athreye & Cantwell, 2007, p. 212). The increased competition

enhances innovation activities of companies in order to achieve competitive advantage (Dereli,

2015, p. 1365).


28

Collaboration

Due to the increasing number of global companies, also collaborations between countries and

companies have increased (Alcacer, 2019, p. 29). Since globalization has been used as an

opportunity for growth, a specific occasion which had been utilized was the collaboration which

brings several advantages. For this regard relevant technologies are necessary to support

communication with collaborating parties. Appearing opportunities as more power, higher

knowledge, supplementary skills, reduction of costs and boosting of global productivity may

arise when joining forces with other companies. Nevertheless, with the access to various

markets all over the world, challenges are arising as well. Communications may not run

smoothly as in the home market due to different aspects as geography, culture, quality of

technology, regulations, etc. Furthermore, when having a great number of working

collaborations, trust is seen as a crucial component because of confidential and security reasons

(Reyes & Kali, 2007, p. 560).

Technology

One of the most important reasons for increasing globalism is technology revolution. Through

electronic inventions many aspects changed, ranging from service delivery to new markets and

faster information transfer (Malhotra, 2009, p. 72). Technological innovations enabled a bridge-

over for time and location differences. Through rising technological ideas, within the past two

decades, making business abroad has been facilitated. Phones, apps, computers, etc. are devices

which cannot be neglected anymore in an economic environment (Wood, 2017, p. 396).

Collaboration with parties from abroad has been facilitated, machines for large production sites

have been established and useful tools for research of the environment and internal purposes

were invented. In general, these and many more technological advances facilitated information

sharing and the crossing of boarders (Aggarwal, 2011, p. 54). Nevertheless, this technological

growth can only be identified in urban and developed areas within countries. The opposite is

the case in peripheral regions, due to lack of trainings, narrow knowledge and limited access

(Wood, 2017, p. 396).


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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Foreign Direct Investment caused considerable support for new opportunities in the business

economy. Development of production systems increased, efficient distribution of resources,

seeking for market niches and many more aspects are happening as results of FDI. The

investment by an individual or a company into a business concern which is located in a foreign

country, boosts economic growth there (Masteikiene & Venckuviene, 2015, p. 1091). In FDI

the strategies which are followed are either horizontal, vertical or conglomerate. Horizontal

reasons for investments are dependent on the target market since the same business is being

outperformed as in the home market. Whereas, vertical strategies focus on given factors as for

example cheap labour. Here the company invests in a business opportunity which is a bit

different but related to the primary business. Conglomerate is an investment strategy where the

business is not related at all. In most cases, joint ventures are being established due to lack of

knowledge in the desired fields (Beugelsdijk, Smeets, & Zwinkels, 2008, p. 453). Nevertheless,

before conducting FDI a company takes various aspects into consideration as market size,

openness, human capital, infrastructure and wages in order to take an appropriate decision

(Masteikiene & Venckuviene, 2015, p. 1091).

Negative Side Effects of Globalization

With all the opportunities and advantages that globalization is bringing, also side effects do

appear. Even though, developed and industrialized nations may receive additional collaboration

partners, productivity increases because of higher competition and focus on customers all over

the world through financial and trade liberalization (Masteikiene & Venckuviene, 2015, p.

1090ff), essential aspects, which may be hidden at first glance, have hindering impacts. First of

all, outsourcing is undertaken due to cheaper workforce into countries with lower cost

structures. As a reaction, the same job position reduces in countries with higher cost formation

(Cuervo-Cazurra, Mudambi, Pedersen, & Piscitello, 2017, p. 235). Competition gets tighter and

therefore, prices need to be set according to counterparties. Secondly, foreign direct investments

took a shift from developed countries to developing nations. Another crucial point is the

imbalance of taxation. Tax rates can be decreased by relocating companies into countries with

lower ratios (Doytch & Uctum, 2016, p. 582).


30

Furthermore, developed countries can utilize the fruits and improvements of increased

globalism, the opposite is the case in undeveloped countries. Even though, a great number of

developing countries could boost their economies and secure new jobs, still there are areas

which faced the down sides of globalization and have to deal with higher unemployment rates

than before. Moreover, the inequality between incomes increases due to international trading.

With outsourcing by companies, operating in developed countries, cheap labour is sought. In

many cases, manufacturing sites in developing countries are exploiting workers with the goal

of low prices for their end products. Even though, these workers will not get paid well and have

inconceivable working hours, there is competition among developing countries to get the jobs.

As a result, environmental standards are decreased (Aslam & Azhar, 2013, p. 158). Moreover,

liberalization of trade and the increase in productivity of goods and services lead to a great

number of energy sources being used up and carbon dioxide emissions growing considerably.

As a consequence, environment gets harmed dramatically (Surugiu & Surugiu, 2015, p. 132).

The table below shows the development of energy consumption in the US by sector. Industrial,

transportation and electric power sectors are using up the most energy and the progress did not

decrease in the course of years. Nevertheless, in these three sectors a dramatic rise can be seen

until the year 2005, afterwards the development is stagnating (Statista, 2019). Not only

increased resource consumption has negative impacts on the environment, also the facilitated

transportation of goods and persons inside and across boarders harms the nature by diffusing

CO2 emissions (Kalayc & Hayaloglu, 2019, p. 358).

Tab. 1: US primary energy consumption from 1975-2018 by sector in quadrillion British thermal units

(Statista, 2019)


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These above-mentioned points just explained a part of negative aspects resulting from

globalization. More consequences are existing, however increased globalism is a key point of

the current revolution happening in today’s world. The achievement of a perfect condition for

everyone is going to be difficult, thus adaptation to current circumstances is the key (Devinney,

McGahan, & Zollo, 2013, p. 334).

3.3 Global Forces Influencing Strategic Analysis

With the already described aspects arising as a consequence of globalization in the world and

in economic purposes, it has to be mentioned that businesses are facing changes in their

organizations (Bouquet & Birkinshaw, 2011, p. 243) as they are constrained to adapt to arising

circumstances (Doh & Lucea, 2013, p. 171). With globalization taking place, competition

increases and therefore opposing players can additionally be found across national boundaries

(Athreye & Cantwell, 2007, p. 212). This topic is very important in the case of strategy and

strategic management. Especially in strategic analysis investigations of the external

environment and internal capabilities of an organization are necessary before being able to

formulate and implement an appropriate strategy in an environment of impacting globalization

(Ghazinoory, Abdi, & Azadegan-Mehr, 2011, p. 30).

3.3.1 Global environment

The short description of influencing forces of globalization on strategic management, brings

further to the part of strategic analysis. The business environment plays a crucial role in this

practice of analysing the inducing factors on a company. The environment of an organization

modified after the influence of globalization. When taking the framework of Wheelen et al

(2018, p. 16) into consideration, environment expanded into a circle with an additional layer.

Traditionally, when conducting strategic analysis, the research is managed on an internal, local

and national level. Today, as can be seen in the figure below, a global layer is supplemented.

The environment of global marketplace including global competitors needs to be examined.

Unpredictable opportunities and threats which are arising through the global market will be

overseen when not considering the additional layer (Thomas, Pollock, & Gorman, 1999, p. 71).


32

Fig. 6: Globally Competitive Environment (Thomas, Pollock, & Gorman, 1999, p. 25; Williams &

Rittenberg, 1998, p. 71)

3.3.2 Global Strategic Management

Modifications within a business organization can be found in strategic management itself. The

collection of plans which is included in the practice of strategy, like e.g. financial plan, need to

be adjusted to global concerns. Incentives which are being taken at one place in the world may

trigger different situations in other areas. Besides, the global perspective, which is essential,

also strategic flexibility shapes the structure of strategic management within a company.

Furthermore, speed and innovation should be incorporated into the practice when performing

business today (Cheng, Filzah, & Hoe, 2011, p. 431). Increasing importance has to be put on

the boundaries of the firm which are difficult to be identified. Internal and external factors may

merge together and knowledge needs to be adapted to this issue (Newburry, 2011, p. 324).

3.3.2 Global Strategic Analysis

As a consequence of globalization, the operating market of a company becomes larger and more

complex. Therefore, traditional approaches of strategic analysis need to be adapted to arising

situations (Ungson & Wong, 2015, p. 50). In traditional strategic research the focus was set on

one industry with current competitors. Through recent complexity, analysis is not anymore

limited to external and internal factors. As already mentioned before, the environment broadens

for a global layer. This additional cover of environment is further separated into four levels of

analysis. The below paragraphs describe stages which are required to analyse in global settings

(Lessard, 2014, p. 83).


33

Geographic Scope

The geographic scope defines the area where a company is performing. In more detail, the

industry of a company needs to be studied in this regard and same has to be conducted in

traditional strategic analysis (Doh & Lucea, 2013, p. 187). Nevertheless, the geographic scope

may be broader even though this may not be seen. With the facilitation of conducting business

anywhere in the world (Athreye & Cantwell, 2007, p. 213), new entrants from countries abroad

can appear rapidly. Therefore, the benchmarking scan needs to be enlarged to actual or potential

entrants with the consideration of a global level (Lessard, 2014, p. 83).

Competitiveness/Attractiveness

Furthermore, when operating in a global environment and having the opportunity to choose in

which location to conduct business, strategic analysis will suit as a research to find regions

where competitiveness is lower and attractiveness superior. For this research, the diamond

framework of Porter (1990) is used. The investigation of industry structure and rivalry, demand

conditions, factor conditions and related and supporting industries are part of this framework

which shows advantages of certain locations (Lessard, 2014, p. 86). Furthermore, the analysis

concerning the competitiveness or attractiveness of a market in global conditions can be

separated into four dimensions. In this regard, market factors, socio-technological factors,

competitive factors and environmental factors are relevant (Urbsiene, Monkeviciute, &

Navikaite, 2014, p. 119).

Geographic Reach of Firm

The reach of a firm consists of where production takes place, which markets are being sold to,

and other dimensions concerning location of processes. In times of globalization having a

competitive advantage is crucial in order to outrival competition. With the possibility of

outsourcing activities or the hiring of highly-specified workforce from abroad, advantages can

be established. The greater the geographic reach of a company, the more activities are

distributed across countries (Lessard, 2014, p. 87).


34

Global Integration Vs. Local Focus

Organizations are conducting several activities in their home countries or abroad. With the

arising opportunities of globalization, actions can be directed to a global or a local focus.

According to Porter (1987), internationalization of activities consists of four dimensions.

Market spread describes the sales of an organization ranging from local over continental to

global. Secondly, localization of activities can vary from superficial to deep. Furthermore, there

is connectedness for coordination of activities and sharing of knowledge. This dimension can

be realized from a loose to a tight condition. As a fourth dimension, configuration of core

activities, same as market spread, ranges from local to global levels (Lessard, 2014, p. 90).

Considering these aspects will give an overview about various possibilities how to adapt certain

activities to globalization opportunities, depending on the strategy of the company.

Furthermore, an analysis will be required concerning the decision on global or local focus in a

certain industry. More and more companies even find areas where glocalization is demanded.

This term is a mixture of a global and local strategy and connects standardized core elements

with localization of other factors (Kotler & Keller, 2016, p. 467).

It has to be mentioned that within the last few years, companies could benefit from the

phenomenon of globalization because of modified techniques and advances in the field of

strategic management. Even though, there are several challenges arising for companies, a large

number of opportunities is hidden (Cuervo-Cazurra et. al., 2017, p. 233). Nevertheless, those

opportunities can only be utilized through the adaptation of an organization’s structures to

recent global trends (Newburry, 2011, p. 324).

3.4 Case Studies

In this chapter an overview of real-life cases will be presented. The example deals with a

strategic change in a company and explains strategic analysis in the case of globalization. The

first company introduced is Starbucks, the American coffeehouse chain, which was confronted

with a strategic change from 2009 to 2014 (Starbucks, 2019). The other case deals with the

situation of MAM Baby Products Ltd. which is a global brand, based in Austria and Switzerland

providing baby products (MAM, 2019).

In the case of Starbucks, the company’s plan was to conduct an international expansion in 2009.

This move was taken after a two-year downturn which was triggered by the financial crisis.

Before the implementation of new strategy steps, internal and external analysis were conducted.


35

Internal analysis focused on company data about financials between 2007 and the period when

investigation was undertaken. Furthermore, share price was analysed in the time from starting

in 2005 and general information about Starbucks Corporations in the course of time including

comparison of store information among countries where organization is operating in. Data of

investigated external environment was withdrawn from statistics done by Euromonitor and

other online databases. Strategic analysis of task environment is closer presented. Coffee

market is crucial for Starbucks and therefore in the first step, when taking into consideration

the framework of Wheelen et al. (2018) and Thomas et al. (1999), coffee consumption per head

on the basis of countries addresses task environment but on a global basis as it is not focusing

on one country only. Data can be seen in table two below (Grant, 2016, p. 452).

Tab. 2: Coffee consumption per head of population, 2014 (Grant, 2016, p. 452)

Furthermore, as Starbucks also wanted to expand in the US market, more data was withdrawn

on the basis of task environment addressing competition and market share. Still, globalization

was present in the times of investigation and therefore all competitors have been examined

whether they were American or not as table three below depicts (Grant, 2016, p. 453).

Tab. 3: Leading chains of coffee shops in the US, 2014 (Grant, 2016, p. 453)


36

The second case study deals with a provider of baby products, MAM has been founded in

Vienna, Austria in 1976 and has now about 1000 employees all over the world and sells over

63 million baby products per year (MAM, 2019).

At the time of the strategic analysis, which was conducted in 2014, the strategy of the company

focused on consumers’ needs and on their products (Osei, 2014, p. 115). In order to get an

overview about the current situation where company MAM is operating in, an analysis of the

external environment has been executed after getting a picture of the internal company

characteristics with the support of SWOT (Osei, 2014, p. 115). In the first step, PEST analysis

was conducted, which addresses the societal environment. Nonetheless, this framework has

been adopted on the industry of baby products among the globe, therefore global basis was

incorporated (Levy, 2009; Osei, 2014, p. 117; Thomas et al. 1999). As a further step, the

analysis of Porter’s Five Forces was conducted, and this method was applied in the countries

which matter to the company. It can be concluded that on the basis of the discussed

environmental frameworks, task environment with the concern of a global layer was

incorporated (Osei, 2014, p. 117ff). When operating in several markets, not only macro-

economic and threatening forces need to be taken into consideration. Also, trends and market

drivers display a region’s needs and wishes. After investigation of several databases in the field

of baby products and nutrition, crucial factors for the company could be withdrawn. Again all

selected countries have been taken in the analysis process (Osei, 2014, p. 118). Today MAM is

operating on all five continents, selling about 63 million baby products per year (MAM, 2019),

which means they could really establish themselves all over the globe.

Discussion

According to above discussed real-life case studies in the situation of a global environment

following similarity can be found: strategic analysis has been conducted within the layer of a

societal and task environment when referring to Wheelen et al. (2018). Within the task

environment competitors and consumers can be interpreted as most important when comparing

these cases. In the societal environment overall factors are important like policies concerning

the material of baby bottles for example. Additionally, both companies do not only investigate

one country but also crucial regions for them as well. Therefore, when operating in a global

environment, foreign areas need to be included in scope of analysis being in the home country

and abroad.


37

4. Dynamic Environment

Within the last few years, numerous factors in the environment have been changing rapidly.

Change is not a new phenomenon. Nevertheless, when comparing the present to the past,

several developments of innovations were happening on a slower basis than in the current

situation. Today, as changes are faster also new opportunities appear for businesses and

entrepreneurs (Populova & Gazova, 2016, p. 572). These changes and developments in the

environment can be described as dynamic (Beer, Voelpel, Leibold, & Tekie, 2005; Du & Chen,

2018, p. 42). Chapter four depicts the term of dynamism and aspects appearing as a

consequence. Recently, environments are being described as dynamic and therefore

challenging. This phenomenon derives influences on societies, the planet and also on businesses

(Teece, 2018, p. 43). With one goal of strategic analysis being the examination of environment,

dynamic aspects are having impact on this practice. In chapter 4.1 an overall definition of

dynamism will be presented. The following section explains the influencing consequences of

dynamics on strategic management (chapter 4.2) and strategic analysis (chapter 4.3) and to

complete chapter four a case study of Qihoo 360, an internet security company, and of Google,

the internet-related service provider will be presented, to give an overview about the challenges

in practice.

4.1 Definition Dynamism

The term dynamism explains a condition which is energetic and active. In the business context

this refers to companies, markets, prices, consumers and other relating aspects (Teece, 2018, p.

43). As already mentioned above, rapid change is happening and is therefore a reason for

dynamism. Whether it is in the business world or in private life, in a dynamic situation various

forces are collapsing and as a consequence generating rapid developments, absence of patterns

and unpredictability (Jansen, Van den Bosch, & Volberda, 2005; Ping Peng & Ho Lin, 2019,

p. 6).

Dynamism has been identified as being the opposite of stability. In a stable business

environment, there is no or little technological process, limited change in customer preference

and narrow variations in market demand. Fluctuations in needs of consumers and increasing

advances in technological fields, lead to instant changes (Li & Liu, 2014, p. 2794).


38

A stable environment becomes unstable and shifts to characteristics of a dynamic one when

technological innovation is happening, perceptions of consumers transform, government

regulations change, and other factors modify. These changes have led to difficulty of predicting

what happens and also, to an uncertain environment (Ivančić, Mencer, Jelenc, & Dulčić, 2017,

p. 52). Developments which influenced markets in becoming dynamic are the internet,

digitization and culture of connectivity (Daniell, 2011, p. 36). The term dynamic is often

connected with complexity. Systems or situations have dynamic complexity when they are

constantly changing, are tightly coupled, happen to be nonlinear and are self-organizing (Helfat

& Martin, 2015, p. 1282).

4.2 Dynamic Forces

With a general overview about the term dynamism, it has to be mentioned where this

phenomenon is mainly present concerning business environment. Dynamic factors are not

stable, as already described above (Li & Liu, 2014, p. 2794). For companies it is easier to

control processes and developments inside the company. Whereas, external happenings need to

be adapted to (Wheelen et al., 2018, p. 117). Below six areas will be presented which are facing

dynamic developments and have impact on business markets and companies.

Government Policies

The government has high influencing power on businesses but also on single individuals. Policy

interest rates can affect housing, personal loans, investments regarding stock market and other

factors where regulation of the government is necessary. Those changing actions depend on

situations in the market, but also on other happenings on the globe and can be either threatening

or favourable for a company or human beings (Wheelen et al., 2018, p. 7).

Economic

The way an economy is running also impacts the level of dynamism in an environment.

Depending on interest rates or prices of goods, potentials arise for companies to expand or to

withdraw from markets (Torres, Sidorova, & Jones, 2018, p. 823). These described economic

fluctuations are triggered by behaviours of consumers and producers but can also be controlled

by policymakers. Dynamics in an economic field may also impact government policies and vice

versa (Wheelen et al., 2018, p. 119).


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A market which is situated in a dynamic environment can have times of stability but, as a

characteristic of dynamism, it can rapidly turn into an uncertain state (Blettner, Hu, Bettis, &

He, 2014, p. 989).

Technology

With growing education and equipment potential, technology is nurturing. Every technological

invention can change an industry immensely. An example for an extreme change in almost all

industries are social networking and information sharing possibilities, which led to the shift of

several companies from phone to skype or from excel sheets to sharing platforms (Grant, 2016,

p. 411). Furthermore, IoT (internet of things) has become a current topic for companies. This

phenomenon connects the internet with tools and thereby extremely changes the nature of

various products (Giones, 2015, p. 42). As can be withdrawn from these few examples,

technology has contributed to rapid developments which influence a major part of the world

(Ungson & Wong, 2015, p. 49).

Consumers

With the current dynamic influence, also behaviour of consumers changed. First of all,

individuals are currently adapting rapidly to new trends and innovations. When using the

example of technology, it can be stated that human beings incorporated the culture of social

networking. Even within this field changes are happening, and adaptation is a continuous

process. For example, the way consumers are purchasing goods has changed, and even the

percentage of online retail sales increased (Roggeveen, Grewal, Townsend, & Krishnan, 2015,

p. 34). Nevertheless, not only technological advances trigger changing consumer perception.

Also, in the field of food, fashion, cosmetics, etc. consumers tend to have fluctuating needs and

constantly seek for new trends (Wheelen et al., 2018, p. 115).

Competition

Dynamic forces led to the development of volatile and tight competition (Ungson & Wong,

2015, p. 49). In sectors where markets are dynamic and turbulent, this kind of competition is

named hypercompetition. The reason for these fast-paced changes in competition and rapid

imitation of opponents is caused by fluctuations in demand or trends (Kriz, Voola, & Yuksel,

2014, p. 288). Furthermore, hypercompetition is moving towards globalization which implies

easier entry into markets, crossing of national borders by foreign opponents and the emergence

of global trends in almost every market (Pacheco-De-Almeida, 2010, p. 1498).


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Globalization

In the previous chapter, forces of globalization have been described which lead to

interdependencies across countries and decentralization of civilisation. These liberalizations

result in unprecedented actions and technological transfers which make several markets a

dynamic place (Hazakis & Siousouras, 2008, p. 250). Also, globalization stipulates the

development of economy in certain countries. With growing economy and interactive

communication, an environment becomes complex and dynamic (Coner, Bukovinski, & Stros,

2014, p. 245). Furthermore, economic globalization leads to uncertain situations and fierce

competition and is therefore extremely correlated with dynamism (Wang et al., 2019, p. 284).

To conclude this aspect, globalization is also affecting several factors which are important and

connected. All of these aspects which are facing global consequences can turn into having

dynamic characteristics (Ambos, Asakawa, & Ambos, 2011; Newburry, 2011, p. 327).

Side Effects of Dynamic Forces

On the one hand, dynamic forces can be favourable for individuals and especially businesses.

When being able to perceive opportunities promptly arising from this phenomenon,

organizations can achieve a competitive advantage and outperform in the industry. On the other

hand, dynamism leads to uncertain situations which change rapidly. Also, the state of continuity

is rather rare in dynamic environments (Du & Chen, 2018, p. 42). Furthermore, the complexity

which is brought along with this phenomenon gets challenging to understand (Bennett &

Lemoine, 2014, p. 312). Therefore, also adaptation to the environment becomes more difficult

for companies and more time is needed to be invested for this process (Ping Peng & Ho Lin,

2019, p. 6).

4.3 Dynamic Forces Influencing Strategic Analysis

Businesses have not been spared the influence of dynamic environments. Especially strategy

requires deep knowledge about what is going on in the market (Dogan, 2017, p. 293). The

uncertainty about happenings in an environment can be interpreted due to the disability of

understanding current changes (Vecchiato, 2015, p. 257). Furthermore, the traditional view of

a planned strategic management process transformed into an unpredictable process (D’Aveni,

Dagnino, & Smith, 2010, p. 1371).


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The uncertainty develops as for example the condition of competition accelerates. In today’s

industries this occurrence is, as mentioned before, named hypercompetition, where quick

movements towards opponents are required in order to constantly possess a competitive

advantage (Grant, 2016, p. 95). Furthermore, it has to be mentioned that traditional strategic

management presupposed facilitated access to information and predictable uncertainties.

Nonetheless, as already mentioned in the first chapter, dynamic paradigm of strategic

management, is presented as a mixture of planned strategy and emergent strategy which arises

due to changes in the environment (Mintzberg & Waters, 1985, p. 260).

4.3.1 Dynamic Environment

As already described above, a dynamic environment is one which changes continually and at

the same time forces an organization to modify according to it (Alkhafaji, 2013, p. 61). With

the uncertainty about environmental developments, forecasting is an appropriate technique in

order to profit from adapting early. Therefore, scanning of the surroundings needs to be done

on a frequent basis. In this regard, analysis needs to be undertaken for market size and growth

rate. Furthermore, competitors, their market shares and their products need to be examined

(Barton & Court, 2012, p. 83). Nonetheless, as can be seen in the figure below several factors

are affecting a company. Since a limited number of years, also technology has been playing a

crucial role for firms. Especially, in dynamic environments having knowledge about

technological advances will sustain an advantage for organizations in the case of vulnerability

(Alkhafaji, 2013, p. 69). However, not only technological characteristics are of importance, as

can be withdrawn from the below figure presented by Alkhafaji (2013, p. 69). The awareness

of other factors as political, economic, sociocultural and regulatory forces needs to be

considered, as well, in dynamic environments (Alkhafaji, 2013, p. 70). From those named

aspects, the sociocultural component has gained more and more significance over the past

decades. The mindset of consumers changes according to arising trends and current issues.

For example, conscious eating habits evolved due to awareness towards health and

environmental issues (Mathur, Chun, & Maheswaran, 2016, p. 142; Murphy & Dweck, 2016).

Furthermore, the arrangement of social and cultural factors differs within demographics, age

and cultural background (Masovic, 2018, p. 1).


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Fig. 7: Forces affecting a corporation (Alkhafaji, 2013, p. 69)

VUCA World

Concerning the environment under dynamic conditions a trending phrase in the regard of

dynamism is VUCA. The use of this term has extremely increased since the first adoption in

1987 where it was primarily used by the U.S. Army War College (Raghuramapatruni & Kosuri,

2017, p. 16). Capital letters appearing in the word are the beginnings of volatility, uncertainty,

complexity and ambiguity (Cousins, 2018, p. 2). Through VUCA these various dimensions,

which have been occurring according to the dynamic environment in the last years, are being

described in the paragraphs below. Volatility describes the state of an unexpected or insecure

challenge. Also, the inconsistency in several areas can be explained with this term, being in

financial matters, demand of customers or changes in general (Bennett & Lemoine, 2014, p.

31). Nevertheless, it is not necessary that the fluctuations are unpredictable. Companies may be

granted access to this knowledge of speed in change. Responding actions to volatility have been

proven to be agile operations and the development of availability of slack resources (Du &

Chen, 2018, p. 44). Furthermore, uncertainty being the second letter in VUCA, is the acronym

of certainty. Predictability of occurrences is rather low and also the possibility of receiving

information about the desired knowledge is usually not there (Du & Chen, 2018, p. 45).

Compared to volatility, in this state no changing occurrence needs to happen. Also, the

collection of information is a more difficult process in an uncertain condition. Nevertheless,

when knowing that residing in uncertainty, gathering of knowledge about the state has to be

structured by entering new networks of sharing and additionally approaching different sources

(Bennett & Lemoine, 2014, p. 314). The third term in VUCA, complexity, addresses the

availability of a large amount of information with interconnected parts. The difficulty in this

case deals with the flow, processing and understanding of given data. The more factors are

linked to each other, the more complex a situation may get (James & Bennett, 2014, p. 27). The

before suggested actions will not fit to this circumstance, as f.e. the retrieval of different

information sources will lead to more confusion (Cousins, 2018, p. 2).


43

In this case, the adaptation of current structures in a company to the complex environment

guides to simplification of the matters of fact. Furthermore, the restructuring should not only

happen externally but also internally. The engagement of experts in several fields can support

the process of transformation and simplification outwards (Bennett & Lemoine, 2014, p. 315).

Ambiguity, being the last character of VUCA, challenges the traditional cause-effect

connection. The clarity about the explanation of a situation derives to be problematic and also

given interpretations can result in being contradicting (Du & Chen, 2018, p. 44). The condition

of ambiguity arises with a new occurrence. This may be a change in the market, the entrance of

a different sector, the innovation of a new product, etc. Nevertheless, identification of

correlation in a modern, ambiguous situation is hard to find due to lack of historical data

(Bennett & Lemoine, 2014, p. 316). Resolutions of such challenging situations can be derived

by investigations of experiments through the company. The type of examinations depends on

the analysing party. Nevertheless, it is recommended to explore smaller components in the first

place with existing customers, in an actual market or with the already established product. From

first insights, information may get clearer for the researcher to know which data to gather or to

become an idea which experiments to examine further (James & Bennett, 2014, p.27).

When taking a closer look at every single VUCA part, it can be concluded that solutions which

would work with one component will not necessarily function with the others. Even though, all

four parts are describing a dynamic environment, they are still separately unique in their

existence. Nevertheless, an environment can consist of one to four of VUCA characteristics and

there may also not be the knowledge which situation exactly is being faced at the moment

(Raghuramapatruni & Kosuri, 2017, p. 18).

LEAP Framework

Due to challenges which are arising in a VUCA world, there is the LEAP framework with

guiding competencies for all four conditions of such an environment. As the name already says,

when possessing the mindset of LEAP, the dynamic world is supposed to be jumped over. When

having liberal characteristic, one is able to be open to new surroundings and to adapt different

behaviours according to given circumstances. Furthermore, exuberant companies or persons

carry the right amount of passion with them and are able to influence their collaborating parties.

Agility, which is a modern term describes the rapidness and easiness of moving. Nonetheless,

also competencies as critical thinking and social intelligence are of importance (Reid, Ismail &

Sharifi, 2016, p. 153ff).


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The “P” in LEAP stands for partnership which is essential when operating in a dynamic

environment. Either partnering with teams or other stakeholder grants trust-based connections

and additionally advantages can be utilized when interacting with various parties (Reid, Ismail

& Sharifi, 2016, p. 153ff).

4.3.2 Dynamic Strategic Management

The dynamic paradigm of strategic management requires more than the static paradigm. In

order to defend or fight against the above described environment, the practice of strategy and

especially strategic management needs to incorporate certain skills. Because of the current

dynamism, internal capabilities of a company have to be directed towards these changes (Teece

et. al., 1997, p. 510).

When rapidly reacting to developments in the environment by developing and restructuring

internal and external skills, dynamic capabilities allow contribution to process change (Torres,

Sidorova, & Jones, 2018, p. 228). These abilities can be reached by adopting organizational

approaches which guide the company towards the desired change (Helfat & Peteraf, 2009, p.

94). “An organizational capability is a high-level routine (or collection of routines) that,

together with its implementing input flows, confers upon an organization’s management a set

of decision options for producing significant outputs of a particular type.” (Winter, 2003, p.

991) According to Teece et al. dynamic capabilities enable an organization to have “the ability

to integrate, build, and reconfigure internal and external competencies to address rapidly

changing environments.” (Čirjevskis, 2019, p. 2; Teece, Pisano, & Shuen, 1997). Those named

definitions imply direction to strategic change under correct and regular adoption of dynamic

capabilities (Čirjevskis, 2019; Helfat & Raubitschek, 2018, p. 2).

According to Teece et al. and in the context of dynamism there are three dynamic abilities

which are of significance (Teece et. al., 1997, p. 510). First, there is sensing. This competence

offers the strength of perceiving arising opportunities and threats (Torres, Sidorova & Jones,

2018, p. 824). Moreover, the capability of sensing facilitates the information flow process by

limiting the amount to essential components for decision makers. Though, with rising

uncertainty, more information needs to be gathered and still the amount of needed data stays

the same, which requires a greater workload (Hodgkinson & Healey, 2011, p. 1503). For an

outstanding ability of sensing, technological solutions are required. Therefore, the development

in the IT field of sensing information needs to be elaborated (Teece, 2018, p.44).


45

Second capability, which is defined in the framework of Teece et. al. (1997), is seizing. An

advantage of this qualification promises to take opportunities and avoid threats by efficient

decisions and strategic actions (Teece, 2007, p. 1320). After the sensing process, a company

undertakes various operations in order to follow the occurrences which are given (Augier &

Teece, 2009, p. 415). For the improvement of this ability the business model needs to be refined.

Furthermore, the right usage of resources is necessary and the prediction of consumers’ needs

to be taken into consideration (Teece, 2018, p. 44). Moreover, the third category of dynamic

capabilities is transforming. With this competence, companies are able to transform their

business model in order to seize an opportunity or refrain from arising hazards (Torres et. al.,

2018, p. 825). This goal is achieved through various actions, including remodelling of the

organizational structure, changing routines and undertaking reconfigurations. By these

processes, competitiveness is strived to be maintained (Teece, 2007, p. 1335). Transformation

of structures and in most cases of company culture, happens by investing in supplementary

skills and abilities of the company. Nevertheless, existing knowledge and qualifications still

need to be aligned (Teece, 2018, p. 44).

The before explained capabilities of the framework are influenced by the scope and quality of

intangible assets within a company. Nevertheless, when being aware of the existence of

dynamic qualifications, connected actions can be strived to be reached (Hu & Bettis, 2014, p.

1341). However, it has to be kept in mind that not all capabilities may be outperformed at the

same level within an organisation. Sensing capabilities may be better developed than seizing

(Teece et al., 1997, p. 510).

4.3.3 Dynamic Strategic Analysis

In the case of strategic management, a dynamic environment significantly requires dynamic

capabilities to be incorporated as the most appropriate response. Strategic analysis on the other

hand, only focuses on the examination of environmental surroundings and therefore especially

sensing capability needs to be taken into consideration in this process. The capability of sensing

needs to be enhanced by companies and therefore, the evolvement of advanced tools in order

to detect changing situations rapidly, should be focused on. Strategic foresight is such a method

which enables organizations to detect arising dynamics and changes (Dogan, 2017, p. 293). In

the practice of strategic foresight, several methods evolved as scenario planning or

roadmapping which are two of the most famous tools (West, Chu, Crooks, & Bradley-Ho, 2018;

Wade, 2012, p. 12) and will be further described in chapter five.


46

Another importance to consider when conducting strategic analysis in a dynamic environment

is to conduct an iterative approach on the basis of the scrum method, which is a technique

evolved from the field of project management. The key purpose of this technique lies in the

distribution of projects into agile small tasks with time restraints (Hidalgo, 2019, p. 5). Coming

back to the analysis process, iteration should be incorporated as a key tactic. As Daniell (2011,

p. 37) stated in the case of a dynamic situation “Advanced scenario planning, shorter strategic

planning cycles, greater planning edibility, increased investment in organizational capabilities,

and real time strategy monitoring can lead to effective responses to environmental change”

(Daniell, 2011, p. 37) The ignorance of complexity normally results in unexpected actions

which have not been incorporated into the strategic plan. In the style of scrum method, strategy

development is handled like the practice of prototyping. An iterative approach on the basis of

prototyping decreases the time length of action courses. Furthermore, like in the testing of a

prototype, ideas are examined, these insights will be immediately used to improve the situation,

and the process goes on like a cycle which never rests (Martin, 2014, p. 2).

4.4 Case Studies

This chapter will present two case studies in the field of dynamic environment and the

connection to strategic management and especially strategic analysis. The first study described

is about Qihoo 360, a Chinese internet security company which concentrates on dynamic

capabilities and strategic innovation (Wang et al., 2019, p. 286). Second company which will

be discussed is Google, Inc. an American company offering internet-related services and

products and being the leading organization in this dynamic and global sector (Google, 2019).

In the case of dynamic forces which have a considerable impact on environments and especially

on strategy of a company, Qihoo 360 Technology Ltd. was chosen to be a suitable case in this

topic. The Chinese company was founded in Beijing in 2005 as an internet security provider.

Their most-known product is the antivirus software 360 Safeguard. They are the leading

organization in their sector in China and in 2014 reached 496 million active users in their

network (Qihoo360, 2019). In 2006 the internet industry in China was facing rapid

developments and also damaging software was extremely distributed on user’s computers. The

latter situation was causing severe problems for internet users, on the other hand companies

like Qihoo 360 could recognize the occasions and take advantage of the situation (Wang et al.,

2019, p. 286ff).


47

As a consequence of the described occurrences, Qihoo 360 sensed the problem and seized the

opportunity to offer a free software which is fighting viruses. The response towards changes in

the industry, was given by applying flexible capabilities and innovative decision making.

Furthermore, the company kept on analysing the environment frequently and responded quickly

to the needs of the market. Iteration and improvement of products were routine processes in the

company. Not only sensing and seizing opportunities can be withdrawn from the case of Qihoo

360, also environmental awareness, flexible operation techniques and innovative decision

functions were adopted (Wang et al., 2019, p. 287ff). The company’s dynamic capabilities

supported Qihoo 360 in being successful. Furthermore, analysing consumer experience and

their requirements facilitated the process of fast and suitable iterations (Wang et al., 2019, p.

286ff).

Furthermore, second case study is, as already mentioned, about Google, Inc. Since 1998 the

company has been existing and has now more than 70 offices in 40 countries, which makes it a

global organization offering products that everyone knows in the technology sector (Google,

2019). In more detail the industry where Google is operating has the name ICT (Information

and Communications Technology). This certain sector is known as global and at the same time

dynamic, including low entrance barriers, high amount of individual knowledge and intangible

assets. Since, the market is very turbulent the company needs to adapt to ongoing trends. This

is enabled by the incorporation of dynamic capabilities (Cirjevskis, 2015, p. 132). Dynamic

capabilities are, in the case of Google, already included in business actions. With the adoption

of algorithms in ad-showing, relevant ads will be displayed to consumers based on their

searching habits. When individuals click on a for them interesting ad, Google earns money.

Nonetheless, this way the company can also see which trends are currently common on the

market and which brands or themes may be getting more awareness than before (Reeves &

Deimler, 2012, p. 79). This is one way of Google applying the dynamic capability of sensing

new opportunities. The company uses its technological know-how in order to analyse the

market, which is done in several ways. Thus, it can be concluded that Google is a major player

in the web environment adopting its internal knowledge for strategic analysis (Cirjevskis, 2015,

p. 133).


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Discussion

The above presented cases are dealing in a dynamic and technological industry. Both,

companies face tight competition in markets as entry barriers in digital sectors are rather low

and developments are rapid (Ungson & Wong, 2015, p. 49). Both companies focus on the

dynamic capability of timely sensing disruptions and arising trends. In the case of Qihoo 360

iteration process is even mentioned which has the focus of organising agile and short-term

projects (Hidalgo, 2019, p. 5). In this case also the frequency of conducting strategic analysis

is crucial. However, the case of Google represents a slightly different situation as the company

has the advantage of being able to analyse consumers while they are using the firm’s services

(Reeves & Deimler, 2012, p. 79). The advantage of this approach is the continuous analysis of

consumers and the market. Even though it is probably one small part of the whole strategic

research process which organization is conducting, it is still a completely different method

which probably needs to be applied by Google in such dynamic environments.


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5. Strategic Analysis

As already mentioned, one of the initiating steps in strategic management is the analysis. The

practice which is also named audit, concentrates on external factors and internal measurements

of an organization in order to assess its position and possible threats and opportunities arising

(Grant, 2016, p. 65). When periodically conducting a strategic analysis, this will result in the

knowledge on which parts demand improvement and which factors of a company are doing

well already or at a specific moment. For several years, various tools have been used to

investigate a company’s capabilities in order to compare and adapt to external forces which are

shaping the environment (Iden et. al., 2017, p. 87).

Nevertheless, within the last years, foresight of a company’s situation has been added as a

commonly and fundamentally used part of the analysing process. This technique has the goal

to learn about market trends and technological changes which might appear in the future

(Sarpong & Maclean, 2014, p. 16). Strategic analysis, as already mentioned, researches the

internal and external environment of an organization. In this stage of the strategic management

process a company investigates internal factors as for example, the structure of the organization,

the employees, processes, resources, etc. On the other hand, external surroundings are examined

which include competitors, regulations, suppliers, and other parties (Bell & Rochford, 2016, p.

310). Nonetheless, as this paper focuses on dynamic and global environments and its influence

on the analysis, internal audit of a company will be neglected. The next paragraphs are

concentrating on the external analysis, used methods in this field and externally used tools in

practice. The aim of this chapter is to introduce connected characteristics of strategic analysis

including the presentation of static and dynamic methods. First, external analysis will be further

presented (chapter 5.1) and afterwards a broad overview about the practice of strategic foresight

will be given (chapter 5.2). With this knowledge tools of strategic analysis will be introduced,

first external analysis tools (chapter 5.3.1) and then innovative techniques (chapter 5.3.2) which

are applied in strategic foresight. At the very end of the chapter (chapter 5.4) two case studies

will be presented and discussed.


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5.1 External Analysis

Knowing the external business environment, results in more control towards outward forces for

an organization. The awareness of a changing world brings advantages for the company. After

a successful analysis of the internal factors, external influences should be investigated.

Customers and the functionalities of a market are crucial components to be aware of for a

company’s business activities (Johnson et al., 2017, p. 94). Furthermore, an audit of the external

environment supports the identification of key variables which are further used as a basis for

the strategy formulation and implementation (Fleisher & Bensoussan, 2015, p. 8). According

to Babatunde & Adebisi (2012) the adaptation to the surroundings of a corporation is facilitated

when having high amount and accuracy of information. Since the external environment

normally changes without the influence of companies and organizations, regular scanning is

required in order to have high quality strategic analysis data (du Toit, 2016, p. 16). As already

mentioned in the first chapter, the constellation of environment is a crucial knowledge in order

to apply appropriate method for analysis. In external analysis all four layers of the environment

are examined. The framework of Wheelen et al. is an appropriate basis to lean on when

conducting traditional external analysis. There is no right or wrong, the decision is made by the

researcher which layers of the environment to cover. Nevertheless, the central layer which is

the company is not covered by external analysis as the examination of the organisation itself

falls into internal focus (Wheelen et al., 2018, p. 16).

In this paper’s structure external analysis is separated from strategic foresight, even though they

are both part of the outward strategic analysis process. The reason for that is to separate the

process of gathering information about current circumstances and uncertain, unpredictable data

which is derived from foresight.

5.2 Foresight

Through the goal of enhanced adaptation to environments, and the influence of globalization

and dynamics which led to enormous uncertainty and unpredictability, the practice of foresight

has been introduced into the business context. The development of this practice dates back to

the year 1940 (Coates, Durance, & Godet, 2010, p. 1424; Rohrbeck & Etingue, 2018, p. 105).

It evolved from industry foresight, over corporate foresight to strategic foresight (Iden, Methlie,

& Christensen, 2017, p. 117; Prahalad & Hamel, 1994; Rohrbeck & Etingue, 2018; Slaughter,

1999).


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Even though, internal and external analysis, have always been common tradition in strategic

analysis, the interest additionally shifted to the perspective of future. Even though, strategic

foresight concentrates on external surroundings and is thus part of external analysis, it is

separated in this paper due to the difference in time measurement. Having observations on just

current and short-term situations emerged to bear some challenges, as various obstacles are

occurring in the mid- and long-term future (Coates et. al., 2010, p. 1423). In the first years of

practice, the usage was directed towards offset of problems. Recently, foresight process is

applied for an early recognition of trends in order to gain advantages over competitors in the

market (Becker & Freeman, 2006, p. 17; Liebl & Schwarz, 2010, p. 313). Strategic foresight is

defined as “the ability to see through the apparent confusion, to spot developments before they

become trends, to see patterns before they emerge, and to grasp the relevant features of social

currents that are likely to shape the direction of future events.” (Whitehead, 1967, p.89)

According to Richard A. Slaughter strategic foresight has four influential impacts on the

perception of an environment. First, the practice gives an overview about current actions and

decisions. Secondly, it supports the organization by early cautions, in order to avoid difficulties.

Furthermore, through the research of strategic foresight probable future occurrences result in

an immediate idea of strategy formulation. With the process of preparation of scenarios which

is facilitated by this practice, anticipated futures can be displayed. His definition for strategic

foresight is as follows: “foresight is not the ability to predict the future…it is a human attribute

that allows us to weigh the pros and cons, to evaluate different courses of action and to invent

possible futures on every level with enough reality and meaning to use them as decision making

aids.” (Sarpong & Maclean, 2016, p. 2813; Slaughter, 1995, p. 1) According to these four

capabilities and his definition, strategic foresight brings a precise depiction of the present and

future business environment and supports decision makers in the direction of future movements

(Vecchiato, 2012, p. 784).

For the foresight practice to be incorporated into the company, five steps are relevant according

to Inayatullah (2018, p. 20). First, goals and needs have to be defined. As a further step, the

overall scope is identified, including keywords and sources. Then the gathered information is

managed by tools or technologies. In the next stage, the information is being analysed and

validated and as a last step management of diffusion takes place, which means to define the

format and frequency of it (Inayatullah, 2018, p. 20). According to the field of information in

strategic foresight and business purpose, there are three categories. Information is required for

the business environment, which depends on the industry and market where the company


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operates. Furthermore, the analysis extent is essential which decides the reach of the market,

the source of information, and other characteristics defining the range. Moreover, foresight

concentrates on predetermined strategy and objectives. According to these defined paths, the

research will be more precise (Sarpong & Maclean, 2016, p. 2815).

When coming to the integration of strategic foresight into the company, temporality is essential

as well. Commonly, focus has been set either on past, present or future. Nevertheless, according

to Hassard, Kelemen & Wolfram-Cox (2008) there are two visions of time existing in this

practice. On the one hand, cyclical vision describes the repeated moves and actions, whereas

linear time concept defines the sequential path of time from past to future without recurrence

(Hassard, Kelemen, & Wolfram-Cox, 2012, p. 92; Sarpong, Eyres, & Batsakis, 2019, p. 105).

Bringing all the above discussed points into consideration, strategic foresight is a very useful

tool for companies striving for strategy in a changing environment. According to Iden et al.

(2017) and the figure below, strategic foresight should be applied to receive knowledge about

future changing occurrences and then these factors need to be incorporated into strategic

analysis process in order to finalize a strategy outcome (Iden et al., 2017, p. 88).

Fig. 8: Strategic Foresight in Strategic Analysis Process (Iden et al., 2017, p. 88)

Therefore, when wanting to incorporate foresight into strategic analysis process there are

multiple activities and capabilities which should be considered. Companies who easily achieve

the integration of strategic foresight into the organization are named PS-RO, which further

means a purposeful, self-renewing organization (Ringland, 2010, p. 1494).


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Figure nine depicts the desired directions of such a firm, which should result in a balance

between routine processes regarding performance and optimization and on the other hand, the

adaptation to the environment and to innovation. The equalised focuses would result in

processes which incorporate both directions. This can be achieved by the audit of internal and

external sources, whereas external environment makes additionally use of foresight (Ringland,

2010, p. 1494).

Fig. 9: The upper and lower cones of a PS-RO (Ringland, 2010, p. 1494)

5.3 Tools of Strategic Analysis

As already discussed above, scanning processes can be withdrawn from impersonal vs. personal

and external vs. internal sources. Nevertheless, scanning is just the process of gathering the

information. When conducting research externally there is a multitude of various techniques

which can be applied to seek for adequate information. Those techniques focus on certain

segments or factors which may be hindering for a company’s business operations. On the other

hand, strategic analysis tools enable the recognition of opportunities in markets (Papulova &

Gazova, 2016, p. 572). A strategy tool is defined as “any method, model, technique, tool,

technology, framework, methodology or an approach used to facilitate strategy work.” (Qehaja,

Kutllovci, & Pula, 2017, p. 68; Stenfors et al., 2007) Such analysis tools have been used since

several years in order to lean on certain frameworks and deal with factors in the environment.

In the practice of strategy there are multiple tools which have been developed.


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First of all, the researcher must be aware of the methods which can be used for strategic

analysis. Therefore, the whole strategy process can be displayed into three phases: architecture,

action and adaptation as shown in figure ten. In the course of strategic analysis only those tools

should be taken into consideration which are belonging to the architecture phase (Sirén &

Kohtamäki, 2016; Vuorinen, Hakala, Kohtamäki, & Uusitalo, 2018, p. 588).

Fig. 10: Strategy process: architecture, action and adaptation (Sirén & Kohtamäki, 2016; Vuorinen et al.,

2018, p. 588)

Furthermore, there is a distinction between static and dynamic tools. The former ones focus on

environments which are stable, the latter techniques have been established as a facilitation for

strategic analysis in rapidly changing and complex surroundings (Schwarz, 2009, p. 291;

Wright, Blettner, & Paroutis, 2013, p. 94). The following two chapters will give an overview

about strategic analysis tools in both dimensions and about tools of strategic foresight.

5.3.1 External Analysis Tools

Strategic analysis has the goal of researching the environment and identifying the position of

an organization within this field. Managerial decision making is based on the analysed

information and guides the further process of strategic management (Wright, Blettner, &

Paroutis, 2013, p. 94; Fleisher & Bensoussan, 2007). Static tools may vary in the usage

according to certain situations. Nonetheless, the interrelation of those methods lies in the

analysis of a stable environment, avoiding the fact of changing forces (Johnson et al., 2017, p.

30).


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On the other hand, there are also dynamic tools in external analysis. They can be adopted on

the basis of a dynamic environment. The characteristics of a dynamic environment have been

described before, but generally static tools cannot be applied on their own in this case (Sammut-

Bonnici & Galea, 2017, p. 2).

As already mentioned, static tools have in common to be investigating a stable environment

and dynamic tools to examine fast-changing environments. Nonetheless, before choosing a

strategic analysis technique, the researcher must be aware of the examination purposes in the

project and the suitable method for that situation. Depending on the research aim, the decision

can be made between qualitative and quantitative data sources. Qualitative methods promise to

retrieve more in-depth information compared to quantitative methods which focus to a greater

extent on statistics, variables and mathematical standards (Fakeye, 2014, p. 92ff).

Frameworks in strategic analysis usually give the basis for information which is required in

certain cases. The source of information can further be decided by the researcher. Therefore,

qualitative data could be withdrawn from interviews, focus groups, expert opinions and so on.

On the other hand, quantitative information is usually extracted from reports, statistics and firm

documents (Lord & Markert, 2017, p. 21)

When again taking into consideration the environmental framework of Wheelen et al. (2018, p.

16) the classification of external analysis tools can be undertaken according to it. The purposes

of methods address a certain field in the atmosphere or the market ranging from the natural

physical environment to the internal firm environment. However, Johnson et al. (2017)

presented a similar framework with the difference in a division of the task environment into an

industry layer and a competitors & markets level as can be seen in the figure below. There are

several existing strategic analysis techniques for every layer and the best way of getting data

about the whole environment is to address every single one in the framework (Johnson et al.,

2017, p. 33). In order to better choose suitable analysis tools, consideration of the research of

Vuorinen et al. (2018) should be taken. The article points out strategic analysis tools frequently

used within the past 25 years (Johnson et al., 2017, p. 33; Vuorinen et al., 2018).


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Fig. 11: Layers of the business environment (Johnson et al., 2017, p. 33)

The next paragraphs will describe tools of strategic analysis of static and dynamic type,

addressing every layer of the business environment evolved by Wheelen et al. (2018, p. 16) and

Johnson et al. (2017, p. 33) with the consideration of the most frequently published tools within

the past 25 years (Vuorinen et al., 2018).

The Macro Environment

The famous PEST(EL) analysis tool is used for the investigation of the societal or macro

environment (Johnson et. al., 2017, p. 34). The framework describes six macro-environmental

factors. Each one of them is essential when entering a new market or simply founding a

business. With this tool the broad environment of a company is going to be analysed. When

using this framework, scanning is done for political, economic, social, technological, legal and

ecological factors. The model covers all four characteristics of the environment described by

Wheelen et al. (2018, p. 16) and gives a qualitative overview about the situation in the operating

country or region (Grant, 2016, p. 65). As already mentioned, the PEST(EL) framework gives

a decent first impression of an environment, therefore it is mostly used as a basis for strategic

foresight (Hartmann, 2011, p. 339). Another tool addressing the macro environment is the

CAGE distance framework developed by Ghemawat (2001) investigating four distance

characteristics as cultural, administrative, geographic and economic. This method also supports

the determination of the strategic position of a company (Ghemawat, 2011;Vuorinen et al.,

2018, p. 590). These tools have been established in the manner of a static environment,

nonetheless they are still used for orientation even in dynamic situations (Gupta, 2013, p. 35).


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The Industry Environment

Coming closer to the company, industry environment encompasses all firms within a sector

which are focusing on the same field of business. Either an equal type of product or the

profession of the same service is relevant for a company (Johnson et al., 2017, p. 35). In this

regard a very well-known framework is used which has been developed by Michael E. Porter.

This tool analyses the competitive environment within a market for a specific industry with an

outside-in perspective (Porter, 2008, p. 78). Porter summed up five external forces into a

structure: Competitive rivalry; threat of new entrants; threat of substitutes; bargaining power of

buyers; bargaining power of suppliers. Those parts are having the greatest impact on the market

or the industry where an organization is doing business (David, 2013, p. 74). When having an

overall picture of all the five forces, performance of a company can be shaped according to the

situation of those components. This simple framework can be applied for every company, which

is operating in a simple industry (Johnson et. al., 2014, p. 81). Another tool which supports the

understanding of an industry within strategic analysis is the industry life cycle. An industry’s

life cycle resembles the one of a human being. The 4 stages introduction, growth, maturity and

decline represent the lifecycle of an industry with its characteristics (Sabol, Sander, & Fuckan,

2013, p. 636). The tool of industry life cycle determines the situation of the current industry

where a company is operating and supports in decision of further movements (Johnson et al.,

2017, p. 49). Before discussed tools address a static environment. In the situation of dynamics,

methods have been evolved to examine a fast-changing industry environment. For example,

Porter’s Five Forces have been adjusted to suit dynamic circumstances. With the comparative

industry structure analysis, strategists examine, on the basis of the five forces, besides the

current situation also changes over time with the support of scenario analysis, for example

which will be explained in the chapter of strategic foresight tools (Johnson et al., 2017, p. 58).

Furthermore, the framework of Porter’s Five Forces can be further accustomed by taking the

industry life cycle into consideration. Here the threat of each force is analysed separately on the

basis of all of four stages. This should give an overview about when given industry is most

attractive (Johnson et al., 2017, p. 57). Besides the existing forces which have been developed

by Porter, many researchers suggested to supplement the framework by three other significant

forces: digitalization, globalization and deregulation. As these aspects are seen as crucial in

today’s fast-changing environments, adjustment of model is seen as necessary (Ural, 2014, p.

5; Downes & Mui, 1998).


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The Competitors and Markets Environment

When entering the last layer of business environment which closely abuts on the company itself,

analysis of competitors and markets is undertaken. This deeper investigation is done when

industries are complex or when there is a representation of more levels of a field (Johnson et

al., 2017, p. 54). Several strategic analysis tools have been evolved for this environmental layer

as well. Strategy canvas is one method which supports companies in finding out about the

current performance in a market, the activities of competitors and their products. After

gathering all this information, a line graph is developed with the horizontal axis showing

dimensions of factors which are included by the company and its competitors. On the vertical

axis it can be seen how much value of those factors is offered by components. The tool is useful

to experience which factors have the need to be improved and where focus has to be changed

for a certain market (Chan & Mabourgne, 2005, p. 25). Another external analysis tool for the

layer of competitors and markets is the BCG Matrix which investigates a company’s strategic

business units as for example its products. The framework supports in analysing the

opportunities for growth in a given market (Mohajan, 2018, p. 1). Furthermore, the value curve

as a strategic analysis tool identifies the appropriate value for customers (Chan & Mabourgne,

2002; Vuorinen et al., 2018, p. 590). In the case of dynamic circumstances, d’Aveni developed

a framework in order to examine a hypercompetitive environment. The framework consists of

three strategy tools including four arena analysis, four lenses analysis and 7-S framework

initially developed by McKinsey. The purpose of this combined method is to create short-term

competitive advantages in fast-changing markets (Sammut-Bonnici, 2015, p. 2).

The Organisation

As a last layer, the organisation represents all characteristics coming along with a company

itself. When investigating this level, strategic analysis addresses an internal focus with an

organisation’s capabilities and resources (Vuorinen et al., 2018). As this paper’s concentration

lies on external strategic analysis only, the paragraph of the organisation layer will not be

elaborated in a deep manner. However, there are many known strategic analysis tools which

are used for internal purposes but also take external factors into consideration. For example

SWOT framework examines strengths and weaknesses of a company’s internal capabilities and

at the same time, opportunities and threats derived from external sources (Phadermrod et al.,

2019). As threats and opportunities are examined in this framework from external forces, they

can be either withdrawn from task, societal or natural environment, there is no distinction

undertaken (Wheelen et al., 2018, p. 16).


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Additionally, on the side of internal factors, weaknesses and strengths are analysed on all levels

of an inside environment (Ghazinoory & Azadegan-Mehr, 2011, p. 25).

With the application of these above discussed techniques, the environment where an

organisation is operating, is better understood. All of them are just a few to mention in external

analysis addressing a static and dynamic environment. Nevertheless, they are the most used

ones and therefore, there will not be put any focus on remaining tools which may also be

frequently adopted in practice.

5.3.2 Strategic Foresight Tools

Classic strategic analysis tools set the focus on current and past characteristics. Through the

presentation of strategic foresight, advanced instruments evolved for strategy managers in order

to analyse the environment and situation in the present and future (Gharajedaghi, 2011;

Schwarz, 2009, p. 291). In the case of strategic foresight, the categorization of methods is not

conducted according to environmental layers, but on the basis of implementation conditions.

These circumstances which are clustered into main categories include: global intelligence

solutions, collection tools, analysis solutions, information diffusion mediums and knowledge

capitalisation tools (Sarpong & Maclean, 2016, p. 2814). Since the development of strategic

foresight, various methods have been derived by strategy makers in order to follow the concept

of future preparation and prediction. Methods regarding input, analytic, interpretation and

prospective types are existing in this practice (Iden et al., 2017, p. 88).

In general, strategic foresight instruments can be divided into semi-quantitative, qualitative and

quantitative tools. Those counting to the latter ones are variable-oriented and mostly share the

characteristic of a clear measurement process and at the same time are derived apart from its

original context (Lüdeke, 2012, p. 11). Methods like benchmarking and bibliometrics are

belonging to the quantitative type. Qualitative foresight techniques, on the other hand, do not

focus on variables but rather on individuals’ knowledge and experiences. Therefore, objectivity

cannot be expected from those methods. Nevertheless, backcasting, brainstorming, expert

panels and others have been more widely used due to the appropriate foresight intention when

increasing uncertainty is taking place (Fernandez Güell, 2010; Hartmann, 2011, p. 338).


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Through the increasing need and usage in foresight practice, methods evolved which share

attributes from qualitative and quantitative techniques at the same time. Those tools are ascribed

to the group of semi-quantitative foresight methods (Karlsen, 2014, p. 1). Roadmapping, delphi

and multi-criteria analysis are methods which incorporate the use of mathematical values on

subjective opinions and viewpoints of individuals (Popper, 2008, p. 65; Turturean, 2011, p.

115).

Coming to the usage of foresight methods, the choice of an appropriate tool usually depends on

the task and level of uncertainty. Rohrbeck (2014, p. 7) presented a framework where existing

strategic foresight tools have been classified according to these aspects. The task axis depicts

levels of predicting/planning and exploration. On the horizontal axis, which measures the

context of uncertainty, distinction between low and high level of uncertainty is being done.

When considering this framework, researchers should be able to know which tool to choose in

which situation. For example, when uncertainty within a market is extremely high and the task

is neither focused on exploring or planning, the most suitable method according to this model

would be the scenario analysis. On the other hand, when uncertainty is neutral but the task is

directed towards predicting/planning, roadmapping approach is mentioned as being appropriate

(Porter et al., 2004; R. Rohrbeck, 2014, p.7).

Fig. 12: Foresight Tools (Rohrbeck, 2014, p. 7)


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Supporting frameworks in the choice of strategic foresight tools depending on the situation are

widely diffused. For example, Popper (2008) generated the model “foresight diamond” which

distinguishes expertise/interaction and creativity/evidence on the basis of qualitative, semi-

quantitative and quantitative tools (Poli, 2018, p. 5; Popper, 2008). Furthermore, another

framework facilitates the categorization of strategic foresight tools. Saritas (2006) stated the

separation of foresight instruments into four phases of the foresight process. Those stages

include understanding, synthesis & models, analysis & selection and transformation as depicted

from figure 13 below. After these four stages, actions and plans can be derived (Smith & Saritas,

2011, p. 85;Saritas, 2006).

Fig. 13: Classification of Foresight Methods (Smith & Saritas, 2011, p. 85; Saritas, 2006)

Nonetheless, it may appear that there are more methods fitting into a situation and therefore,

also frequency of usage of a tool is considered which may display easiness of adoption,

satisfaction with method, promising results, etc. Saritas & Burmaoglu (2015) investigated the

usage of existing 68 foresight methods in publications from 1991-2014. Table five depicts the

usage process in this time period. From 1991-1994 only one or two methods have been actively

used for foresight purposes. The graph also shows, that within the past few years techniques as

delphi method, scenario analysis and roadmapping have been constantly and most frequently

used, even though recently there have been existing over 30 various tools. Apart from those

well-known tools which have been existing over 50 years, advanced techniques evolved or have

been adapted from other practices into foresight. Bibliometric analysis, simulation and system

dynamics have gained great significance.


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The authors concluded that an appropriate mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods

within a strategic foresight process can be promising (Saritas & Burmaoglu, 2015, p. 503).

Tab. 4: Occurrence of Foresight Methods in Publications (Saritas & Burmaoglu, 2015, p. 503)

Taking into consideration the framework of Saritas “Classification of Foresight Methods”

(2006) and the research of Saritas and Burmaoglu (2015) about the frequency of foresight tools

between 1991-2014, a collection of the most relevant strategic foresight methods can be

undertaken and will be presented in the next paragraphs.


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Understanding

At the beginning of a systemic foresight process, the most important factor is to get an overall

understanding about the situation. In this phase the investigation with a panel of experts (Saritas

& Burmaoglu, 2015, p. 503) or with the support of interviews may be helpful (Smith & Saritas,

2011, p. 85). Furthermore, bibliometrics as an advanced tool in the practice of strategic

foresight have found increasing usage within the past years. This method supports the analysis

of all types of written articles, journals, etc. with the goal of finding desired elements as

citations, authors or keywords (Gibson, Daim, Garces, & Dabic, 2018, p. 8). All of these tools

in the phase of understanding, share the purpose of procuring a first view on a situation and on

upcoming trends and shift from qualitative to additional usage of quantitative methods (Saritas

& Burmaoglu, 2015, p. 503).

Synthesis & Models

In the next stage of foresight process, methods should be used which, as the name says, display

a future scenario with its possible outcomes and consequences. Business war gaming or game

theory represent such strategic foresight tools in this category. This technique has initially been

used in the military by simulating battlefield situations in order to be prepared for offenses or

other catastrophes (Schwarz, 2009, p. 291). In more detail, the settings of the company are

reconstructed including conditions which may appear in the real world with teams assigned to

play certain stakeholders. The business wargame is separated into several time periods with the

potential outcome of having various scenarios played (Kurtz, 2003, p. 13). Another very useful

and frequently adopted tool in this regard is scenario planning which is the oldest method in

strategic foresight (Saritas & Burmaoglu, 2015, p. 503).

Analysis & Selection

After picturing possible situations and approaches, analysis needs to be undertaken and

appropriate scenarios selected. A traditional tool, which serves as a basis in strategic foresight

is SWOT framework (Smith & Saritas, 2011, p. 85). Furthermore, Multi Criteria Analysis is a

useful method in this stage as it has the goal to compare different factors based on chosen

criteria. Factors which are paralleled in this process can be potential scenarios or solutions

(Benedicto Royuela, 2014; Salo, Gustafsson, & Ramanathan, 2003).


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Moreover, on the basis of such techniques, prioritisation or delphi can be outperformed. Delphi,

for example, puts the focus on expert input which is narrowed down to a research purpose

(Soliman & Khaton, 2018, p. 50). The goal is to find a consensus between the experts, which

can further be defined for overall predictions (Jorm, 2015, p. 889ff).

Transformation

The last stage before execution of actions is transformation. This phase follows the aim of

converting selected and analysed situations or scenarios into goals and so do the corresponding

strategic analysis tools (Smith & Saritas, 2011, p. 85; Saritas, 2006). First of all, logic charts or

relevance trees have been shown as useful in this stage. These tools display a complex situation

in a hierarchical structure with smaller sub-topics or details (UNDP, 2014, p. 30). Moreover,

backcasting serves as a further tool on the basis of the previous explained in order to develop

future visualisation with the engagement of several stakeholders (Karlsen, 2016, p. 350).

Furthermore, roadmapping suits in this field of strategic foresight process and has the privilege

of increasing usage. This method supports the process of business model transformation by

adapting to potential future changes (Schaller, Vatananan-Thesenvitz, & Stefania, 2018, p. 1).

Due to the mentioned changes in global and dynamic environments, focus will be shifted

besides classic external analysis methods, also on those tools which enable additional value in

current times (Lehr, Lorenz, Willert, & Rohrbeck, 2017, p. 222). The four above explained

stages and their techniques allow a more rapid decision making and the facilitation of adaptation

to uncertain and complex environments is given (Ansoff, 1980; Favato & Vecchiato, 2017;

Lehr et al., 2017, p. 223). However, when taking external analysis and strategic foresight tools

into consideration it has to be mentioned that classic external analysis methods will still be used

separately or additionally as a basis for strategic foresight techniques, even though,

environment is different than several years ago. The reason for the permanent usage of external

tools is the required basis of analysis which is delivered by them. Furthermore, they provide a

detailed overview about external surroundings and factors which might be favourable or

threatening. As may have also been noticed, several methods addressing dynamic environments

are just adjustments from static techniques. Innovative tools, on the other hand, support

organizations in predicting future developments and preparing for arising situations. (Clardy,

2013, p. 115; Dälken, 2014, p. 7; Lehr et al., 2017, p. 223).


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5.4 Case Studies

This chapter will present two case studies including the performance of strategic analysis with

the support of a strategic foresight tool. First case study is about BMJ, which is a global

company providing healthcare knowledge and facing tight competition on the global market

(BMJ1, 2019). The second case study is in the area of automobile industry, which is a dynamic

sector. The company in focus is Ford who implemented strategic research in the year 2015

(Grant, 2016, p. 542).

Recently, BMJ has been connecting with 8,000 medical organisations worldwide and providing

content in about 14 languages, in order to reach as many consumers as possible. The company

is a pioneer in their industry with digitizing publications within the last 50 years. Moreover,

experts are frequently integrated in development processes of the organization (BMJ1, 2019).

As the company has witnessed the rapid changing environment and competition becoming

tighter, they recognized the challenge of keeping up with continuous developments in the

sector. The largest threat was coming from opponents planning on establishing publishing

platforms and on increasing their databases (Adema & Stone, 2017; Rhoods & Babor, 2018, p.

255). The company decided to conduct scenario planning as a tool of strategic foresight. This

decision was based on the fact that recent changes in the industry were unpredictable and very

prompt. The displayed figure below displays the thorough process and timeline of BMJ’s

scenario research. The procedure in the case of BMJ equals the general process described by

Wade (2012, p. 94). The procedure of this foresight analysis started with the formation of a

scenario group, who was intended to meet on a regular basis. The identified topic for the

scenarios was “the development of global research for the next 20 years”. The subject was

chosen according to the company’s business purpose. As a next step, interviews were conducted

with individuals from the company, but also with external parties being in some way connected

to the company. The interviews were then transcribed to have an information basis for the

scenario meetings of the group. Also, analysis of interviews was undertaken and as a result

three global trends were found and six global research themes addressing the main topic of

future global research. These findings were summarized in a pre-read which was distributed

among the responsible parties in the company. The group meetings which were also named

workshops by the company, were executed three times. Every workshop had two to three main

goals and consisted of 8-20 individuals, whereas the smaller meeting of eight individuals was

performed at the very end (Rhoods & Babor, 2018, p. 256).


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Fig. 14: Process and Timeline Overview (Rhoods & Babor, 2018, p. 256)

The top managers were informed about the analysis and findings regarding various departments

within the company BMJ. Transferred information was incorporated into a traditional SWOT

framework for an enhanced overview. The company’s success in scenario planning showed to

be considerably high and therefore, high support was given to this subject from senior

leadership, CEOs and other managers (Rhoods & Babor, 2018, p. 259). To conclude, the

elaborated future scenarios did not enable the company for predicting the future. However, the

sight on the forthcoming could be adapted and at the same time, actions and thinking were

aroused towards innovative directions (BMJ2, 2019).

The second case is presenting the large automobile company Ford, founded in 1896 by Henry

Ford with the production of the first vehicle on the road which was a quadricycle. Seven years

later the organization got incorporated as Ford Motor and started selling cars. Today the

company is selling over six million vehicles per year and is one of the most famous car brands

worldwide (Ford, 2019). The environment of the automobile industry developed into a dynamic

one within the last few years (Grant, 2016,p. 542ff). Analysis was conducted in the sector using

a roadmap approach addressing a number of forces which would drive the change of the

automotive sector. These trends included competition, regulation, digital disruption and

rethinking of ownership (Gao, Hensley & Zielke, 2014). Roadmapping tool has been

increasingly used within the last years, especially for dynamic environments (Saritas &

Burmaoglu, 2015, p. 503; Schaller, Vatananan-Thesenvitz, & Stefania, 2018, p. 1).

Nevertheless, concerning the resulting disruptive forces industry-players have been interviewed

and about 2.000 new customers from the large markets like Brazil, China, Germany and the

U.S. have been reviewed. Results of this study showed that 13% of respondents see the internet

connectivity as a priority in their cars and more than 25% give more importance to IoT in their

cars compared to for example, fuel efficiency (McKinsey, 2014).


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Furthermore, analysis of the consultants showed that safety-related technology in cars has been

rising extremely within the last few years addressing specific types of accidents. As table four

shows these technologies have risen already and are adopted for safety when changing lanes or

opposite direction. In the future this trend is expected to intensify and address almost all

thinkable accidents as with pedestrians, bicyclists and others (Gao, Hensley & Zielke, 2014).

Tab. 5: Collision avoidance safety technologies relevant to crash type (Gao, Hensley & Zielke, 2014)

These findings in the strategic analysis moved Ford’s strategy towards becoming a

technological leader in the industry, due to the growing importance in this field. This goal would

be reached by continuous technological research in the automobile sector. Furthermore, an

initiative connected to the new strategy was to provide mobility for every individual by

considering economy, environment and society. Ford wants to concentrates on customers and

provide a supplementary value by keeping up to date (Grant, 2016, p. 553).


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Discussion

As can be withdrawn from discussed case studies in the chapter of strategic analysis tools, both

types of methods are adopted in combination. First case study is using scenario analysis with

SWOT to structure the findings. In the case of Ford, roadmap approach is applied with the

support of an adjusted Porter’s Five Forces model. In both situations, sources are mainly

gathered from interviews which are then further structured with the support of applied tools.

Findings address a time frame in the future which is the goal of strategic foresight techniques.

As can be also withdrawn is that potential future events were developed on the basis of answers

of individuals who are concerned with the topic. This implies that within the process of strategic

foresight, numerous opinions are fundamental in order to escape the daily thinking and consider

a mind which is out of the box.


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6. Methodology

This chapter will give an overview about the empirical study in this master thesis. The decision

was put on a qualitative research with the support of expert interviews. First, the research design

will be presented which incorporates expert interviews (chapter 6.1) followed by the conducted

measures (chapter 6.2) in the paper which incorporate the structure of the interviews (chapter

6.2.1) and the interview sample (chapter 6.2.2). Afterwards, analysis will be described in more

detail. The type of content analysis is going to be presented (chapter 6.3.1) and the way of

coding described (chapter 6.3.2). In the final subchapter (chapter 6.3.3) of the Methodology,

the conducted method will be discussed shortly.

6.1 Research Design

The research design used in this master thesis is a qualitative approach based on theoretical

findings. Qualitative research is chosen as suitable for this paper as there is little sufficient

theory in this field and the current situation of this matter wants to be investigated.

Characteristics of qualitative research are that personal role is investigated, and new knowledge

is being constructed. The goal of this kind of exploration is to understand an individual’s

experiences and opinions and to draw conclusions from these findings (Jackson, Drummond,

& Camara, 2007, p. 22). Conclusions are derived by interpreting the investigated target group’s

answers. Within qualitative research many methods can be chosen which share the goal

exploration of insights (Mohajan, 2018, p. 2). Since, the main topic is about the practice of

strategic analysis, and the changed environment where it is outperformed, it appears best to

examine this topic with experts in the strategy sector.

6.2 Research Approach

The research method adopted in this study is an inductive approach. According to Thomas

(2006) an inductive method is explained by the narrowed research scope with the adoption of a

research question. Furthermore, the inductive approach has the goal of evolving new theory

from investigated data, which in this case are the conducted interviews (Thomas, 2006, p.

238ff). Moreover, grounded theory is a supplement to inductive method and is also kind of used

in this master thesis. Glaser and Strauss (1967) were the first ones using this kind of sub theory.

The goal of this technique is to develop a new theory from the analysed qualitative research

(Khan, 2014, p. 227).


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Normally the application of grounded theory takes place in major research projects and cannot

really be compared to this master thesis. Nonetheless, the idea of this theory is definitely

incorporated in the research design of this paper (Noble & Mitchell, 2016, p. 35).

Fig. 15: Grounded Theory (Noble & Mitchell, 2016, p. 35)

6.3 Measures

This chapter will give a further overview about the research technique in this master thesis. In

the first part structure of interviews will be described and afterwards, an introduction about

interview participants is given. The qualitative research is outperformed with the support of

expert interviews. The interviews were conducted between 30th July and 25th September. At the

beginning of every interview, respondents were asked for permission about recording of

interview, in order to facilitate the transcribing and analysing process.

6.3.1 Structure of Interviews

The interviews were conducted on the basis of a self-developed interview guideline. As already

mentioned, an inductive approach was used because of a moderate theoretical basis with the

possibility of asking spontaneous questions during the interview (Thomas, 2006). The interview

guideline was developed after thorough theoretical research. At the beginning of the empirical

investigation, the master thesis topic was shortly presented to the interview partners. After that,

introductory questions about the field of strategic analysis have been asked. Followed by

detailed queries about methods and length of strategic analysis, questions over impacts of

globalization and dynamism were set. Depending on the answers, either interposed questions

were asked, or the interview continued because of appropriate quality of response. If not

mentioned before, the practice of strategic foresight has been asked as a final section of the


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interview. In the very end, partners were requested if they had anything more to say about this

topic. If this was not the case and all questions of the interview guideline have been answered,

the interview was concluded by thanking the participant again for taking time in the interview.

6.3.2 Sample

As already described, this master thesis’ qualitative analysis will be based on interviews. The

type of interviews is expert-centered. Focus of this type is to analyse interpretations and

experiences. Furthermore, speciality was to elaborate interview guideline with open question,

and the possibility of asking specific questions in-between (Witzel, 1982; Meuser, 2000). The

target group for the interviews of this master thesis have been consulting firms and in more

detail management consultants. Reason for this narrowing, was the expertise in knowledge of

current situation in strategy purposes and overview about cases of different firms at the same

time in global and dynamic settings. Consultant companies in Austria and Germany have been

approached for the interviews. Information could be collected from seven strategy consultants

from Austrian and German consulting companies, operating in several sectors. The

differentiation in industry focus gave a broad and extensive inside knowledge into the field of

strategy and strategic analysis. The interviews were conducted by phone and lasted for

approximately 30 minutes. The interview language was German, as all of the interview partners

are working in a German-speaking country. Due to anonymity reasons, no names will be

mentioned in this thesis. For easier recognition and differentiation of interviews, fictive names

for consultant companies will be given which are slightly related to the field of sector focus.

The table below presents interviewed companies (with fictive names), representing position of

interview partner within the firm.

Financial AG Partner

Digital AG Principal

Innovation AG Consultant

Consumer AG Partner

Technology AG Partner

Pricing AG Partner

Vision AG Senior Manager

Tab. 6: Interview Partners


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6.4 Analysis

After investigation of interviews, key factors need to be found in order to be able to compare

significant sayings of interview partners. The way of analysis, coding method and discussion

of method will be explained in more detail in the next subchapters.

6.4.1 Content Analysis

For this master thesis, information of seven expert interviews could be collected. At the

beginning of every interview, permission was asked for recording it. Taping of interview was

done with an application on the smartphone, as interviews were conducted by phone.

Afterwards, all seven interviews were transcribed into a word document for facilitated analysis.

The interviews were conducted in German and so the transcripts can be found in German

language as well. In order to withdraw meaningful information from the interviews, content

analysis was adopted. This technique is used for the research of qualitative data and especially

texts. Through this method, a great amount of written information can be modified into an

organised manner with the use of categories. In order to achieve the state of categories, text

parts are labelled into codes which are grouped afterwards. For examination of interviews,

MAXQDA program was used (Erlingsson & Brysiewicz, 2017, p. 94).

6.4.2 Coding

As already mentioned, for the coding process, an analysis program was downloaded.

MAXQDA was adopted as a support in the analysis. This software was developed in order to

help in a qualitative analysis process where interviews, focus groups, etc. can be transcribed,

coded and analysed (MAXQDA, 2019). Also, described before, the development of codes is

necessary for the evolvement of categories in the process of content analysis (Erlingsson &

Brysiewicz, 2017, p. 94). To explain this expression, codes are describing terms for parts of the

research. They are developed by the researcher while reading the examined textual material.

(Theron, 2015, p. 4). In total 25 codes have been developed in this research process and were

then further grouped into clusters addressing the same topic.


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6.4.3 Discussion of Method

The above discussed parts of the empirical section in this master thesis, were implemented and

results can be found in the following chapter. Nonetheless, reason for chosen methodology must

be given before. First of all, a qualitative approach was selected as the topic of strategic analysis

is a complex one and does not represent a best way on how to conduct the procedure. Therefore,

the opinion of several experts in this field was assumed as suitable for this master thesis.

Furthermore, an inductive method is suitable because there is no existing theory about the

concrete topic of strategic analysis in a global, dynamic business environment and thus this

paper will suit with the evolvement of a new theory in this concrete area.

Regarding the data collection it can be said that a representative sample could be approached

and the duration of 30 minutes per interview was sufficient for investigation. Since the

theoretical framework had been developed before the conduction of interviews, significant

knowledge could be acquired in order to direct the interviews towards meaningful discussions.

Nonetheless, the discussion in a focus group or the presentation of real case studies by

participants may have supplemented the research with deeper data. Unfortunately, time reasons

could not make the realization of these further ideas happen. However, the quality of interviews

is evaluated as of high quality. Interview partners were giving numerous examples from their

fields and the reason for that may be the assurance of anonymity.

Concerning the analysis method, content analysis is a frequently used technique in the process

of qualitative research. The separation of text passages into codes and then categories, seems a

successful method to withdraw results from interviews. Furthermore, the used programme

MAXQDA made the whole process easier. Especially, when individuals from a similar field

are asked comparable questions, differences and correlations are identified meaningfully.


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7. Research Findings

This chapter will present the findings of this paper. Previous section gave an overview about

the analysis technique, which was used to gather results. First of all, overall findings will be

described (chapter 7.1) where the interviewed companies will be sequentially presented

including their process of strategic analysis and opinions on the impacts of globalization and

dynamic changes. In the next section (chapter 7.2), crucial topics which have been stressed by

interview partners will be presented mentioning five themes. Afterwards analysis of the

discussed findings will be described giving similarities and differences on the three matters

from the company presentation. All those findings will include quotes stated by the interview

partners.

7.1 Overall Findings

Even though the interviewed parties are operating in the same field of profession, habits and

approach to consulting differ considerably. This chapter will be structured into presentation of

seven examined companies by describing single cases with the focus on strategic analysis,

globalization and dynamism.

7.1.1 Company Presentation

In the initial part of the empirical analysis, conversations have been divided into the same

structure as interview guideline had been developed. First, process of strategic analysis was

examined. Secondly, the impact of globalization and as a third part, influence of dynamism on

strategic analysis was explored. The companies will be presented in the sequence of interview

conduction.

Financial AG

First interview was conducted with a partner of Financial AG on 30th July. The interview partner

has a significant focus in the finance and services sector. Therefore, most of the answers were

related to those industries.

Strategic Analysis Process

The duration of strategic analysis process in Financial AG lasts for three to four weeks, which

also depends on the examined company. Larger firms operating in more markets, demand a

longer analysis up to six weeks. When conducting the process for clients, it starts with the


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question “Where is your point of relevance and where is your chance as a company to fill a

consumer’s intersection?” Models or methods are not used in the process. Financial AG makes

use of several databases in order to find out macro economical facts, habits of consumers in a

specific market, etc. On the basis of this information, a trend analysis is conducted with the

support of data analytics or data assignment. Strategic foresight is also used in the process.

Nevertheless, models or methods which are known from theory are rarely used. Design thinking

is one technique which could be thought of. The usual process is to discuss scenarios on the

basis of scenario planning with the client in order to prioritize which situations may be possible

in the future and how to react to them.

Globalization

“Economy is driven by globalization” was a quote stated by the interview partner of Financial

AG. Organizations are influenced by global progressions and what happens in dominant nations

of the world, will impact other countries as well. Furthermore, there are no boundaries any

more. This enables numerous opportunities for everyone. Nonetheless, this makes the process

of strategic analysis more challenging and time consuming. Today, analysis would not be

complete without global attributes.

Dynamism

The interview partner compares impact of globalization with the one of dynamism, just from

another perspective. Everything changes ranging from consumer behaviour, speed over

attention span to purchasing behaviour. Moreover, he gave the example of automobile

manufacturers which are transforming into mobility suppliers, because the possession of a car

lost value among a high number of individuals. The partner of Financial AG mentioned an

advantage which appeared for consultants, as the whole strategic process became exceptionally

exciting and interesting. More discussions arise due to uncertainty of upcoming events.

Digital AG

Second company participating in the interview process, was Digital AG. The principal of a site

in Germany, was giving numerous examples for IT related solutions for various industries.


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The interview partner stressed that strategic analysis can be conducted in many situations of a

company’s life cycle, being when introducing a new service or opening a new location of the

firm. Depending on the situation and problem, the detailed process differs in duration, effort

and analysis range. He also mentioned that in Digital AG it is common to combine strategic

analysis with other analyses as cost-value ratio, how to be profitable, etc. The process starts

with a development of key parameters which are of interest for the current issue of the company.

Furthermore, hypotheses on the basis of those key parameters are made. Then investigation

starts with a focus on the market including especially competitors. Use of methods is also

mostly adjusted to the customer and Digital AG adopts several techniques in one strategic

analysis process. Nevertheless, the principal is convinced that expert interviews are relevant

methods and will always be used in strategic management. Concerning strategic foresight, the

interview partner told that it is used as a further process of strategic analysis on the basis of the

gathered information. In general, the processes are divided into three steps which are scanphase,

focusphase and finalphase.

Globalization

First of all, since the increase in globalism, more than one market is being investigated which

was noticed by the principal. Furthermore, strategic analysis changed in the way of adapting to

other consulting techniques from foreign countries. In the case of Digital AG American

methods have been added to their strategy consulting service as customer journey.

Nevertheless, the practice of analysis becomes more challenging. Knowledge about various

languages and cultures needs to be contemplated. Furthermore, just the comparison of a

company’s profitability in more countries for example in Germany and the US is not at the

same level, this should be considered, and ratio calculated.

Dynamism

According to the interview partner, dynamic changes have not affected strategic analysis in a

serious way. The only factor which has to be followed is to conduct the analysis in a more

frequent way. Some years ago, it was enough to investigate the external environment once a

year or even in two years. Today, through influences of fast-moving changes and digitalization,

this has to be done on a frequent basis within a year.


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Innovation AG

Innovation AG was the third company being interrogated in the context of this research. The

interviewed person was a consultant, working there for about one year. Due to his previous

experience in the innovation department, he could give a deep insight into this area but also

with connection to consulting that he has been specializing in recently.


Innovation AG anticipates one to two months for a strategic analysis process. Sometimes, even

three months are required for projects with a larger scope. When asking about the analysis

process which is conducted for companies in strategic matters, the consultant told us that the

first thing to do is investigating the client’s situation in the marketplace, industry, etc. This is

conducted with the support of several methods, depending on the customer, but mostly

innovation focus is set. Design thinking was one method mentioned, which is amongst others

adopted by Innovation AG in the initial phase. Furthermore, the company relies on a model

which is called 7-K, which stresses seven areas in order to understand an investigated firm’s

situation. Nevertheless, the consultant informed that customers are more familiar with business

model canvas since it is existing for a longer period of time, and therefore this method is still

frequently used. For Innovation AG it is important to discuss the whole analysis with their

clients and even make use of workshops to support the facilitation of understanding.

Furthermore, strategic foresight is adopted in the organisation. Two employees of Innovation

AG, which are specialized on future trends and studies, accompany the whole process of

scenario planning.

Globalization

The impact of globalization on strategic analysis, is not seen as great by Innovation AG’s

consultant. The interview partner gave the example of a Swiss client who did not want an

Austrian or German professional to do the strategic management process. And that people are

more open when someone really understands them and shares the same culture. Even though

groundwork and analysis should be done on a global basis because of globalization settings

happening in the world, the consultant needs to adapt to the local market and the company, and

this may be challenging when not understanding the culture correctly.


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Dynamism

Regarding dynamic component, which is affecting the environment, Innovation AG’s

consultant mentioned that for strategic analysis it pays out to invest more money into

experiments and complex projects. The current process focuses more on small and short

experiments to see the outcome which determines how to move on. Here these so-called start-

up methods are adopted. Great challenges arise when wanting to use advanced methods for

strategic foresight in organisations with traditional enterprise structures, where sometimes

resistance from internal parties of the client can be felt.

Consumer AG

The fourth company taking part in the interview process is Consumer AG with a partner of their

site in Vienna. As the consultant firm did not imply to have any focus derived from the partner’s

answers, and is consulting in any kind of strategy, overall perceptions were given from the

interview participant.


An average process of strategy analysis at Consumer AG can last from eight to 16 weeks. In

the first stage, status quo of the examined company is undertaken. Classic fields are

investigated, including competition, technology, product development and service offerings.

These factors are compared to the internal capabilities of the client’s organisation structure.

These competences involve technology ability, service competence, sales capability and

digitalization know-how. After collection of this information, scenario planning is adopted in

order to discuss current and future situation and furthermore, to develop a picture in which

direction the company and environment is evolving. In the context of scenario planning,

Consumer AG is combining information from global opinion leaders, trend researchers,

institutes and expert interviews.

Globalization

In the case of globalization, Consumer AG’s interview partner told that strategic analysis has

changed massively. For example, when developing scenarios and corresponding options today,

then they are always stretched to global characteristics. He claims that some years ago these

factors have been evolved on a regional foundation.


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The process changes in the way of scenarios and the whole strategy evolving on a global basis,

but to still consider local aspects “think global, act local”. Furthermore, there are some markets

in the world, which are anyway global and do not contain any local characteristics.

Dynamism

The phenomenon of dynamism is also seen as a challenge in strategic analysis, by the interview

partner. In this situation, it is required to develop a dynamic and agile strategy. Furthermore,

high level of flexibility needs to be adopted in every action of the organisation. Moreover,

strategy itself is more momentary than back then, where strategies were appropriate for the

duration of at least 20 years. Today, the cycles are shorter. Strategic analysis needs to be

conducted once a year or more. Here agility comes into play and has an impact on the way

strategic analysis is being conducted.

Technology AG

Further information could be gathered from Technology AG. This consultant company

specializes in the area of transformational financial services and blockchain technologies.

Therefore, the partner of the Technology AG location in Germany, gave insights relating to

those fields.


First of all, the interview partner mentioned that strategic analysis is always conducted in

combination with another project definition and that it does not stand on its own. Duration of

the analysis process alone lasts between six and eight weeks. In the case of more specific

situations it may take twice as long. Majority of strategic analysis which is outperformed by

Technology AG deals with the evolvement of a new technology in a market and the client

company wanting to know how to establish according to this change. In general, the first step

is to set a goal or topic. Within this scope, areas of the firm are investigated which are affected

by this aspect. This information is derived from several sources as for example expert

interviews, Delphi approaches, research data or futurology institutes. Furthermore, this

information is leaned on traditional models as SWOT or Porter’s Five Forces. Afterwards,

scenario analysis is executed on the basis of every predetermined area. Through this detailed

method, a package of measures can be developed on the basis of the most relevant scenarios.

For these scenarios, options are prepared.


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Globalization

The interview partner is convinced that the world will see if globalization is irreversible trend

or not. Through this phenomenon uncertainty is intensified due to disruptions coming from

other countries than the one operating in. In strategic analysis today, the geographic dimension

plays a very strong role and so the positioning of an organization is important. Furthermore, the

partner of Technology AG refers to globalization as geopolitical insecurity.

Dynamism

When asking about dynamic impacts in strategic analysis process, uncertainties were pointed

out again. Nevertheless, this is triggered by other factors. Technological transformations for

example were mentioned as being disruptive forces within this change. Several years ago,

developments in the past were also changing and could be described as dynamic. However,

predictability was facilitated. Due to an extreme number of interactions with various

technologies on the world economic layer, strategic analysis becomes more important than even

two to three years ago and it gets more difficult for strategists. Nonetheless, the partner of

Technology AG mentioned that dynamic changes can be profitable as well for organisations.

Many companies take the step of securing such risks or private equity and venture capital fonds

are beneficial in such dynamic times. Furthermore, organisations which are not asset based can

react faster to changes like it is the case for Airbnb or Uber.

Pricing AG

Last company sharing insights in the framework of this master thesis, was Pricing AG with a

partner of the Viennese office taking part in the interview. In the field of strategy consulting,

the firm is specialized on pricing and monetizing.


The respondent of Pricing AG communicated that a classic strategic analysis process for pricing

lasts until three to four weeks. Duration can be longer if project is focused on strategy and is

directed towards market evaluation, market entry and similar. Before the start of strategic

analysis process, Pricing AG arranges capacity of resources with the client to know what would

be possible in terms of transformation towards the predetermined goal. For orientation in the

analysis process, models like SWOT or 4Ps are adopted by the company. In order to gather

various needed information, the company sets on several sources. Interviews with the company

but also with external parties are conducted.


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Those interrogations are seen as a very crucial part for Pricing AG and they engage one to two

weeks for that. Furthermore, existing market surveys, competition analysis and customer

researches are taken to be used for this process. After this information search, frameworks are

adopted to get an overview. These frameworks include trigger points which are established

when required amount of information is collected. Every predetermined trigger point is further

discussed with the client, so called competition scenarios are developed. This scenario planning

process requires a proposal for solution regarding the key points.

Globalization

The partner of the Pricing AG’s Viennese office claims that globalization is having an extreme

impact on strategic analysis. The scope of research gets broader due to the client’s operations

in several countries. Even though, the world becomes a global structure, it is important to

investigate different consumer tastes and needs. The same product may have dissimilar values

in various nations. Moreover, Pricing AG’s consultant highlighted that it gets more difficult to

assemble local preferences by just examining studies and data bases. Preferably country experts

are included for a more realistic picture. Nevertheless, this is time consuming and a challenge

when investigating more nations.

Dynamism

Regarding dynamism the interview partner pointed that strategic analysis needs to be conducted

more often. Even after the project, a constant benchmarking and market research should be

done so the company does not oversleep upcoming modifications. Organisations in today’s

circumstances should be aware of new competitors or different consumer groups which evolved

on short notice. Through the increase of dynamism, also the need for dynamic tools has grown.

Some years ago, benchmarking analysis was done manually. Today, there are online tools doing

this task efficiently for researchers. When meeting with clients, Pricing AGs consultants use

their self-developed analysis apps for real-time information updates.


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Vision AG

Last company, agreeing on taking part in the interview process, was represented by Senior

Manager of Vision AG. Focus of this organization lies in provision of consulting services in

the fields of technology and future-related topics.


In general, usual practice of strategic analysis is separated into three phases: situation

assimilation, vision of industry and market trends and as a third step evaluation phase. Overall

the process lasts for about four to 12 weeks, depending on the industry and situation where the

client company is located in. From the three conducted phases, last stage of evaluation is most

intensive. As supporting tools, pattern assets about industry and situation are adopted for

generation of measures. Furthermore, technological mediums for evaluation of analytics are

utilized. Also, traditional, static models like Porter’s Five Forces are still taken into

consideration but rather for supporting purpose. Very important for Vision AG is the part of

strategic foresight in strategic analysis process. Focus lies on industry and technology and

future scenarios are developed for these fields. The process is circular and there is not a point

where scenario development stops. Regarding methods in this practice, as already mentioned

industry analysis is common. Moreover, innovation scouting is also significantly stressed.

Nevertheless, the senior manager highlights that the big picture is crucial. When only focusing

on foresighting, internal capabilities and financial resources of company may be neglected.

Globalization

The topic of globalization is very important in the view of Vision AG’s senior manager. The

company itself faced a huge opportunity through globalization, as expansion of offices

happened over the whole globe. Furthermore, regarding strategic analysis, competition

increased and intensified. Also, the size of markets escalated. Moreover, it has to be taken into

consideration that today’s markets are highly complex because of current verticalization

between industries. As a consequence of the world becoming a global structure, markets are

more homogenous, and this may facilitate the process when investigating in several regions.

Dynamism

Two factors are clearly influenced through the impact of dynamism: Consumer behaviour and

technology. It is very difficult to follow advanced technological trends. The environment

becomes more volatile and this requires faster actions from the company side.


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Furthermore, a structured organization with predetermined steps will prepare for exactly these

unpredictable changes in technology and customer habits. Dynamic modifications do not

facilitate the process of strategic analysis but lead to increased complexity and volatility as

mentioned by interview partner from Vision AG.

7.2 Crucial topics discussed in Interviews

During the analysis of the interviews, specific topics were mentioned frequently by interview

partners. This chapter will discuss those significant topics with the inclusion of quotations

stated by the research participants. Crucial to mention is that interviews have been conducted

in German language and quotations will be directly translated and given in English.

7.2.1 Change in Strategic Analysis Process within Time

After investigation of interviews, it became more and more clear that strategic analysis process

today differs immensely from the practice some years ago, before the extreme influence

triggered by globalization and dynamism. Some examples were stated by interview partners

which give a detailed idea about these changes.

Two consultants point out that the frequency of strategic analysis and strategy development

increased tremendously. According to their experience, it was normal to develop a strategy

which was valid for at least 10 years. Therefore, also strategic analysis and investigation of

internal and external environment was not as important, and procedure of this practice was not

such a necessary part in regular actions. Also, the job of a consultant was described as

monotonous. Today, topic of strategic analysis is taken more seriously. Due to the fact of

strategy becoming more short-lived because of dynamic influences, strategic analysis process

is recommended to be conducted more times within a year. As one of the interview partner

states:

“So, to be clear, there are no stiff strategies anymore because we can see, we reside in a

dynamic environment...In my opinion strategy is more short-lived nowadays. Back then a

strategy was developed, and it was good for at least 20 years. Today this is not the case

anymore.” (Interview 4)


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Furthermore, it is discussed by several participants how uncertain the environment became.

This uncertainty is indicated as a result of dynamism, globalization and digitalization. Some

years ago, there have also been changes and dynamics, but these modifications were

predictable. Within strategic foresight, which is repeatedly brought up as an important practice,

a number of methods has been mentioned in order to be prepared for this current uncertainty.

Nevertheless, great value should be put on options which explain the action process for a

potential future event. A partner from Technology AG tells:

“… and when comparing developments which happened in the past, we can say that they

have also been dynamic but predictable. Now we enter an area where we face so many

interactions with various technologies and so many uncertainties in the economic layer, that

the topic uncertainty is more important in strategic analysis than two to three years ago.”

(Interview 5)

Due to this uncertainty and other factors, companies are required to have different capabilities

and another viewpoint on strategic management. Almost all interview partners mention the need

for more flexibility and as already discussed a frequent transaction of strategic analysis. The

changed circumstances also require another approach to the whole process. Prepared steps and

actions should be developed beforehand. Whereas, back then it was the case to think about a

different measure at the moment when a problem occurs. Conversation about the traditional

strategic management process with a last control step appeared with one interview partner who

says:

“I think that nowadays there is not anymore this going back, but at the moment of choice,

through the current, fast moving planning, there is already a developed alternative. So that

you don’t say ‘this was wrong’, no, now there is the realization ‘ok this event occurred, I

will follow the other way or one of the other paths which are based on my analysis… That

is why strategy is more short-lived organizations adapt more rapidly as there is no focus on

feedback, but on thinking about this situation in advance.” (Interview 4)

To conclude this topic, all interview partners agree that the process of strategic analysis has

faced some changes which can be displayed by the provision of examples. Strategies are no

longer developments for a long-term future. The process is ongoing and strategic analysis

should be incorporated as a regular and mandatory step within a business year.


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Furthermore, high uncertainty in environments requires a certain focus when conducting

strategic analysis. Companies need to integrate agile processes and to develop options before

the implementation of strategy.

7.2.2 Current Techniques and Methods in Strategic Analysis

In the last part of theory, focus is set on tools in strategic analysis and even papers are included

where frequency of currently used methods and techniques is investigated. When asking the

interview participants about strategic analysis process in their companies, adopted tools were

mentioned and when necessary questions about these tools were asked more deeply.

First, opinion and usage about traditional models has been interrogated. Interview participants

have divergent answers in this context and a part of them does not even mention those classic

frameworks which are described in the theory part under external analysis. For example, one

consultant states that they do not use any models for the analysis process. Every customer is

different and so there is no need to develop a model as here human intelligence and standard

knowledge should be applied. On the other hand, at least three of the participants make us of

classic methods like for example SWOT. One consultant describes adopted methods like

fishbone or route-cause analysis. But these are not seen as primary tools which determine the

direction of strategic analysis. Consultants which adopt them, say that it is more for supporting

reasons.

“Of course, we also use SWOT analysis, or investigate what are the greatest trends. We do

not work off models like Porter’s Five Forces. Of course, when we look at the structure of

supply, we utilize the 4Ps. But actually, we operate more often with our developed models

We have a team in our organization who work with digital solutions. They reprogram tools

which we can adopt in projects and run through with our clients.” (Interview 6)

“… the traditional models are of course very good methods to arrange one’s mind. But it is

not something that would differentiate us as consultants. For example, Porter’s Five Forces

and SWOT analysis is something that everybody can adopt. They are good instruments to

get a completeness about the point of view…” (Interview 5).


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Frequent indication is pointed at strategic foresight. Concerning advanced ways of conducting

strategic analysis, strategic foresight tools are widely spread in the consulting sector today.

According to research participants, this procedure is an essential element in strategic analysis

practice. Most frequently adopted tool is scenario planning. Every consultant who took part in

the qualitative research of this master thesis, mentions the usage of this technique. Also design

thinking and innovation scouting are tools adopted by at least two consultants and roadmap

approach is mentioned as well.

“Strategic foresight is especially very important for us, so we can extend the opportunity

pool and be pulled away from ordinary challenges which we stand upon and to really

broadly open the sight of where it is going…we have two employees in our firm, one who

was previously at the futurology institute and the other one having specialization on trends…

and then they make proposals how it may potentially look like and discuss it with the client.”

(Interview 3).

In the context of strategic foresight and scenario planning, the use of trigger point evaluation

is stated frequently by the consultants. The purpose of this process is to set these key points

before the analysis and after the procedure fulfilling answers to every point should be given.

“In the background we determine trigger points, and they evolve through the interviews or

the data analysis. Trigger points can for example be ‘how many customers did the company

lose recently. ‘ and this can be seen in the collected data… and as soon as we can say that

we have 10-15 key points, and for every point we have several sources and it seems stable,

then we can conclude with a good conscience that we sum up these points and can come

across a good result.” (Interview 6)

As can be withdrawn from the interviews, the usage of models depends completely on the

consultant, the consulting firm and the client. Therefore, answers differ extremely from each

other. Nonetheless, all interrogated parties agree on the fact that most suitable information can

be extracted from expert interviews and data bases. Gathered information is used as a basis of

external analysis and strategic foresight methods.


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“There is certainly a lot that can be utilized from the choice of databases, ranging from

‘Statista’ to others, in order to analyse economic data or consumer behaviour. The exciting

factor is not which database I am using, but how I incorporate this data reasonably into a

trend analysis for example.” (Interview 1).

Topic about current tools and methods can be concluded by stating that traditional techniques

in external analysis are still relevant and in consultants’ minds but according to them will not

lead to successful strategy implementation. More focus is put on advanced methods where

clients are being integrated. These tools of strategic foresight ensure preparation for an

uncertain future by defining trigger points which will be elaborated. Moreover, information

needed for methods and tools can be easily accessed. Nonetheless, importance lies in how this

information is being modified in the process.

7.2.3 Further Challenges Arising Today

In the course of the interviews, all participants mention several challenges which appear in

current circumstances. Apart from global and dynamic confronts, they find more difficulties in

the context of strategic analysis. The discussed challenges range from too many modifications

within a firm to heterogeneity of markets. Most crucial and frequently stated ones will be

described below in more detail.

Changes in environment necessitate a modified approach in strategic analysis. Organisations

should implement internal capabilities and advanced methods should be adapted to external

environment. All of the interviewed parties make use of new tactics in the context of strategic

foresight and techniques in order to integrate the client and to be prepared for uncertainties.

Nonetheless, the introduction of these advanced methods is not always easy for consultants.

Resistance can be often felt and traditional approaches which have been used for years and may

not be appropriate anymore are still seen as suitable by consultants’ clients. Furthermore, worst

case scenarios should be also developed nowadays to be on the safe side. However, it is humane

to be convinced about something as for example a scenario and not wanting to discuss others.

The participant from Pricing AG and from Consumer AG say:


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“I think that it is always a great challenge to establish a common way of thinking with the

client and to say, ‘we think that this will happen with a probability of 80-90%’. But it is

important to also think about what could happen in the worst case or in the very best case.

I think that it is humane to consider a scenario for as very feasible and not wanting to deal

with something else anymore.” (Interview 6)

“...this is to a certain degree such a creative process because you enter new business fields,

where it is required to disengage oneself from the common case. And these are the ones who

think, do and predict new things. Naturally, there is pushback from clients.” (Interview 4)

In the context of strategic foresight time factor is also fundamental. Even though, the practice

supports the process of being prepared for arising future events, the whole procedure is time

and cost consuming. Interview partners explain that in the foresight exercise workshops are

being done, clients are integrated for discussions and a high number of options is being

elaborated.

“…I analyse certain developments on which I want to be prepared. I investigate which

business departments are affected. Then I have to conduct high amount of economic research

to have decent data and I interrogate experts and so on, examine scenario analysis which is

also a very intricate operation and afterwards, I prepare action options for scenarios and

develop a package of measures on the basis of those scenarios, which helps me no matter

what happens, in order to get ready for anything.” (Interview 5).

Challenges also occur when organizations are not disposed to arising changes and

developments. Even when there is the will of clients to modify, internal capabilities and

resources need to be considered. Especially the point of financing is important when conducting

strategic analysis. It has to be measured what will be possible for the examined company and

furthermore, how time and cost-consuming the process of strategic analysis can be. This

challenge is mentioned by five interview partners.

“a great challenge is the capability check… so to critically question own competences if I

have everything on board and what I need in order to reflect everything together. And when

I enter this business field, which new opportunities are else there.” (Interview 4)


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“So, it is not only about conducting experiments, but to have a value-based observation.

There are several new players in the strategy field, who lay their focus on innovation and

creativity. What can be seen is that many of those companies are failing financially. This

means that it is extremely important to massively work on a value basis, even though short

cycles are pursued, and innovation is in focus. Companies are financially driven and if that

is not my key focus anymore, and I don’t have a clear KPI anymore, then I won’t fulfil this

KPI and this implies a downfall for many companies.” (Interview 7).

Concerning this topic, it is mentioned how important the internal business model of a firm is in

order to be able to react to changes. Especially digital business models are flexible and can

rapidly acclimatise. On the other hand, traditional business models face more difficulties.

“…but there are specific business models where an uncertain situation can be

advantageous. For others, if I am a long-term, asset-based organisation, then I am not able

to react to changes of the environment, this is not so good.” (Interview 5)

Furthermore, a great challenge is the approach to the consumer and the discovery of what they

need and which trend they are currently following. In general, customers are said to be the most

important influencing party when wanting to develop a strategy. Through dynamics and global

characteristics, consumer habits and purchasing behaviour are changing massively. The

analysis about purchasers becomes a crucial and time-consuming part for strategists. The

consultant of Pricing AG also mentions that after a thorough analysis of the market, an

additional customer survey is being conducted. These changes happen in every industry and

need to be considered as the interview partner from Financial AG states:

“An industry where we can see this immensely is the automobile sector. We are doing

projects for the large automobile manufacturers in Germany and they say that they are no

automobile manufacturers anymore, but mobility suppliers. Because a great number of

individuals is not buying cars anymore. They do not need it anymore, because it is no status

symbol, it is too expensive. Massive changes.” (Interview 1)


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Another very important topic which has been mentioned with ambiguous opinions is the

increased trend of digitalization. Fast development of new technologies and the mindset of

consumers towards digital habits changes the process of strategic analysis. Companies want to

predict technological developments in order to adapt to them. Furthermore, digitalization

facilitated trading online with the rest of the world. Nonetheless, it is agreed that through this

phenomenon, trends are more difficult to predict.

“We all live in a development where we strive to be one step ahead new technologies, but

this is extremely difficult…if I could adapt with the newest technology and could make an

advantage out of it, it may happen that the next arising technology will not reach me.”

(Interview 7)

As described in theory, the current environment we are facing today is also called VUCA which

evolved as a consequence of global and dynamic forces. Characteristics of this certain

phenomenon have also been described by interview participants. Hand in hand with upcoming

trends and technologies, comes complexity within environments. As a consequence of

globalization and dynamic factors, the investigated environment of a firm becomes larger and

also more verticalized. The term of complexity and connected challenges arising have been

mentioned by three interview participants. It is seen as a challenge and more time consuming

when conducting strategic analysis. Furthermore, coming as a consequence of increased

developments in the technological field, volatility is a crucial term to consider in today’s

environments. Four consultants point out the power of this circumstance. And also, part of

VUCA is uncertainty which aggravates the process of strategic analysis.

“I also think that complexity is steadily increasing as we are talking about global

developments and global markets and the connections which evolve across industries as a

consequence of digitalization and innovation which makes everything more difficult.”

(Interview 5).

“Volatility in markets and industries requires more rapid actions. And this happened

primary as a consequence of technological development…if you make a mistake in your

strategy nobody will really retrace, because it may lie on the fast-changing industry and

maybe it is even possible to cover the mistake.” (Interview 7).


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“I would not call it globalization. I prefer saying geopolitical uncertainty. Same thing when

referring to technological disruptions, it means that within strategic analysis there are more

uncertainties and there is more need to examine events which are mainstream. For me it is

important to replace the term ‘globalization’ with uncertainty in world trade.” (Interview

5).

To sum up, apart from typical challenges arising as a consequence of globalization and

dynamism which have been described in the theory part, there are other difficulties which need

to be coped with in strategic analysis. They can be found anywhere being in the pre-phase of

analysis where it is important to investigate internal capabilities or in the very end of strategic

research process where it is necessary to discuss potential scenarios and options with the clients.

Also, the environment which developed as a consequence of global and dynamic forces, has

now different characteristics bringing further challenges for businesses.

7.2.4 Opportunities Arising Today

Even though, there is a lot to consider in today’s strategic management process and unknown

challenges are arising, it is stressed by our interview partners that through these impacting

forces also new opportunities arise.

A crucial part of strategic analysis is to research the market and use this information in order to

establish a strategy. Even though, the environment becomes more complex and uncertain, also

the practice of strategic analysis itself changes and has been improved to be more efficient and

supporting for strategists. New technologies and shared knowledge among countries led to

processes becoming better and facilitated. It can be concluded that increased digitalization has

had a great effect on the practice and even on a positive side.

“I think that generally, the entitlement has grown, and dynamic tools are needed and

through that everything became more efficient. For example, a person doing the

benchmarking manually is not existing anymore, there are already online tools which do

this out of an automated process where no human diligence work is needed… as we have for

example the internal apps.” (Interview 6)


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Moreover, not only technologies in strategic analysis, supported the process in becoming more

efficient and improved. Also, globalization established opportunities in this field. Strategic

analysis is described as advanced and different compared to some years ago. Through the

easiness of reaching people and information from abroad, upcoming trends can be identified

faster. Furthermore, when wanting to gather knowledge about another country, national experts

can be consulted. Tracking down such experts also became easier in the course of time because

of wider transparency and the internet. Furthermore, more networks are existing, and companies

even have subsidiaries in several countries. Because of this global integration, local consultants

can get insights from foreign consultant companies. This leads to modifications in strategic

analysis and the adoption of different methods as one interview partner states:

“For example, development of certain products, we look up what is being done in the U.S.

and then you even take over particular methods from the American consulting practice, for

example ‘customer journey’. This is something for me, which was out of the question. But

this ‘customer journey’ is in my opinion something which supports extremely.” (Interview

2).

“Network. So, we have in our organization about 490.000 employees all over the globe. We

have colleagues in China for example, and we just have to make a call, in order to get data

about the Chinese market. Not a long time ago I had a project with an automobile

manufacturer, and we needed to include the Chinese market.” (Interview 7).

Furthermore, what is mentioned as being an opportunity in today’s strategic analysis is

foresighting practice. Even though it has been utilized for over 100 years already, advanced

techniques started evolving in this field within the past few years which support in being

prepared for uncertain environments. Through this high number of various methods, strategists

can choose depending on their approach and their client which technique to select. Even though,

the process can be time-consuming, it brings several advantages. Moreover, three of the

interrogated interview partners describe strategic foresight as a process where client becomes

integrated and interesting discussions occur about future events and potential options. Positive

factors about this process are also to support thinking out of the box and therefore developing

a high number of potential options.


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“On the positive side it is certainly desirable when being able to put one self’s mind in the

position of what could happen in the future and to have a high-level indication and plan.”

(Interview 6).

“Strategic foresight is especially for us very important as it extends the opportunity pool

and it wrests us from day-to-day challenges which are in front of us and really shows a

broad basis where future is directed…” (Interview 3).

Overall, it can be concluded that digitalization in general opened several opportunities for

strategic analysis today. Apart from the technologies which are used for conducting the process,

also new methods evolved. Within these new methods, tools for strategic foresight have been

developed as this process gained high importance in the last few years. Furthermore, new

opportunities disclosed for strategists as through the interconnectedness of countries and

information exchange, the experience of new models and ways of doing was adapted.

7.2.5 Internal Capabilities

Topic about internal capabilities will not focus on the internal structure of a company, but on

the internal capabilities which should be adapted for a strategic analysis process to be

conducted. In the theory, it is already discussed that dynamic environments require different

approach to traditional procedures.

In the interviews it becomes clear that analysis of the internal component is as important as of

the external environment. However, interview partner stress the adaptability of two capabilities

when conducting strategic analysis. The first competence which should be incorporated

according to consultants is agility. This term can be translated into repeated investigation of

frequent and short cycles. Three of the interrogated interview partners state that following this

mode of operation will facilitate scanning of the market under present circumstances.

“What we prefer in such an agile working environment is to strongly focus on operating

with the adoption of short strings. Also, to develop scenarios, but in a more rapid kind of

fashion, in order to get a certain speed in such projects…” (Interview 5)


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Moreover, strategic analysis process should be designed to incorporate flexibility. This

capability is important because of uncertain events which may occur. Not only should several

options be developed for potential scenarios, but these possible actions need to be planned in a

way to be able for flexible reaction.

“…but these are black swan events that we take into considerations, in order to form the

strategy in a flexible way. I am also convinced that this long-term strategy, as it was

developed 10 years ago, will not be existing anymore in this shape, so more focus should be

put on flexibility. How flexible can I react to trigger points; how can I dispose in a flexible

and agile way…” (Interview 5)

Besides the mentioned capabilities, rapid reaction needs to be incorporated. When making agile

process investigations and finding out an opportunity or threat gap, fast response is needed with

the adoption of flexible actions. It is mentioned that when the time hole is missed in the first

place, it may be too late for the company.

“it is more and more becoming an integrated work with the goal of implementation. This

was caused by the whole innovation field, respectively the quick reaction time which is

needed in order to react to new technologies and introduce it rapidly into the market.”

(Interview 7)

To conclude, strategic analysis cannot be seen any more as a process which is done once and

then strategy is established on the basis of it. This practice needs to be seen as complex with

the requirement of flexible and agile way of operating. Also, reaction time to new opportunities

needs to be considered. When incorporating these capabilities, organizations may face an

advantage in these current, uncertain environments.


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8. Discussion

Following chapter will depict the discussion of this master thesis. In detail, the empirical data

will be examined with consideration of theoretical information (chapter 8.1). The structure of

this analysis will lean on the theoretical framework mentioning first strategic analysis, followed

by globalization and dynamism. In the second part of this discussion, summary will be

presented, displaying two models which were developed on the basis of the combined results

(chapter 8.2).

8.1 Comparison with Theory

In this subchapter analysis of the paper will be presented. Consolidating data from interviews

and data from theory, will give an overview about which cases can be validated and what can

be significantly withdrawn from the conducted research.


In theory, strategic analysis captures an important process in strategic management (Cadle et

al., 2010, p. 9). Also, empirical research showed the significance of this practice as every

interview respondent is following external analysis when it comes to problem identification

within strategy from the client side. Some of the interrogated consultants agree on the fact that

strategy used to be an inflexible procedure with high possibility of prediction concerning arising

events. Equal fact can be abstracted from theory as strategic management in general has been

seen as a static process for a long time where steps have been fulfilled sequentially (Lan, 2009,

p. 52).

Additionally, before global and dynamic influences, methods and tools which have been used

were completely different to today’s techniques. Former models were outlaid for a static

environment (Johnson, Whittington, Scholes, Angwin, & Regner, 2017, p. 30). Qualitative

research shows mentioning of these tools, with the annotation of a supporting function in

current strategic analysis. Furthermore, adoption of advanced and innovative methods which

are part of strategic foresight, has been conducted but it was not given such high importance.

These statements of interview partners can be confirmed by theory.

Strategic foresight is a not a new process as it is existing since 1940, but the evolvement of this

practice intensified later. Frequent and variated usage of strategic foresight tools started at the

beginning of 21st century (Saritas & Burmaoglu, 2015, p. 503).


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Globalization

As theory suggests, globalization is an influencing force in the context of economy and strategic

analysis (Bouquet & Birkinshaw, 2011, p. 243; Ghazinoory & Azadegan-Mehr, 2011, p. 30)

and same is stressed by interview partners. Competition becomes higher, markets get larger and

technology enables communication across countries and regions (Aggarwal, 2011, p. 54;

Athreye & Cantwell, 2007, p. 212). Concerning strategic analysis, Financial AG, for example

points out that through global influences, the process needs to be extended geographically. The

more countries are involved, the wider research should range. Same is stated by the rest of the

interview partners except for Innovation AG, that more than one market is relevant today and

research should be stretched. This is in line with the framework by Thomas et al. and Williams

& Rittenberg who claim that a global layer needs to be supplemented in the environmental

framework, to not oversee any opportunities or threats (Thomas, Pollock, & Gorman, 1999;

Williams & Rittenberg, 1998).

Furthermore, globalization opens up new opportunities and business chances for organizations.

For example, if reach of a firm is extended this may help companies in strategic analysis process

when information about a specific country is needed. Lessard (2014) points out in theory that

the higher reach of a firm, the more activities are spread among the globe. And this brings

advantages when analysing markets abroad, and being able to receive first-hand information as

has been for example pointed out by Vision AG when mentioning collaboration with

subsidiaries among the globe (Lessard, 2014, p. 87). What has also been suggested by Lessard

(2014) is the balance of a company between global and local characteristics. This aspect is

mentioned by two interview participants. For example, consultant from Innovation AG claims

that in strategic analysis today, groundwork will be conducted on a global basis but detailed

factors will be adapted to local formalities and behaviour (Kotler & Keller, 2016, p. 467;

Lessard, 2014, p. 90).

Dynamism

Concerning dynamic forces which are influencing strategic analysis, it has been agreed by

interrogated experts that strategy cannot be seen as a static process anymore. Same is stated

according to d’Aveni et al. (2010) that strategic analysis transformed more into an unpredictable

practice (D’Aveni et al., 2010).


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Triggers of this phenomenon are numerous ranging from technological advances too

accelerated competition (Grant, 2016, p. 95). And equal opinion comes from interview partners

when stating that speed of change increased and can be found anywhere concerning customers,

competition and several other factors.

Furthermore, agreement is found when describing the environment that companies today are

facing. Even though the term VUCA has not been mentioned by interview partners, three of the

four characteristics have been brought up frequently. Environment is according to consultants,

volatile as changes are appearing rapidly. Bennett and Lemoine (2014) describe this state as an

inconsistency in developments and circumstances. Moreover, current state is labelled as

uncertain and through this situation many challenges arise. This quality appears in VUCA

environment when talking about unpredictability and the difficulty in attaining information

(Du & Chen, 2018, p. 45). Third term which stands in line with theory is the characteristic of

complexity. According to interview participants, global and dynamic changes and connected

influences are responsible for high complexity in environments (James & Bennett, 2014, p. 27).

Last attribute of the overall term has not been mentioned directly. Ambiguity can just be

indirectly withdrawn as many factors are described as opportunities but at the same time can

appear to be threatening if not reacting accordingly to them. It is also mentioned by one

interview partner that in these fast-changing surroundings, mistakes which have been done

when implementing a strategy can hardly be found. Thus, ambiguity is also present as cause-

effect connection decreased (Du & Chen, 2018, p. 44).

At the same time, proposition of Alkhafaji (2013) verified about various factors which need to

be taken into consideration in the external environment, ranging from technological

components to rapidly modifying consumer preferences (Alkhafaji, 2013, p. 69). Consultants

state that these factors, which derived from global and dynamic forces, bring uncertainty and

therefore many challenges. Apart from traditional factors which have been analysed, focus

should be put on rapidly-changing forces which derived to be digital, human and competition

components. For example, theory agrees with interview partner from Technology AG when

stating that a major part of uncertainties in environment is derived from the technological field.


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Strategic Analysis in a Global, Dynamic Business Environment

Influences in the environment lead to the development of strategic analysis process as it is

today. First of all, each interview participant sees the practice within strategic management as

a dynamic process. Also, theories from irrational school of thought evolved striving to describe

strategy as a dynamic procedure in an unstable and unpredictable environment (Lan, 2009, p.

59; Papulova & Gazova, 2016, p. 574). However, answers of consultants did not show any

general procedure where predetermined steps are followed within strategic analysis process.

Statements can be more compared to theory of Mintzberg and Waters (1985) who claim that

emergent strategic actions need to be taken into consideration (Mintzberg & Waters, 1985, p.

260). This can be compared to answers indicating that the process cannot be planned and

flexible actions are required. It is also frequently stated that it depends on many factors which

tools are used, how long the process takes, and which course the actual procedure seizes.

Moreover, as already described above the business environment which is researched in strategic

analysis process needs a different point of view. Opportunities and threats do not have borders

anymore and the market where an organisation operates extended among the whole globe

(Lessard, 2014, p. 83). Furthermore, more factors appeared which gained considerable

awareness and need to be investigated comprehensively (Alkhafaji, 2013, p. 69). At the same

time, structure of changes in environment modified and characteristics as volatility, uncertainty

and complexity need to be considered (Bennett & Lemoine, 2014, p. 316).

Due to modifications in environment, consultants also find agreement in following a different

and adapted approach in the practice of strategic analysis. The examined company needs to be

prepared for unpredictable changes and should possess an up-to date knowledge. Frequency

occurred in the topic of internal competences when conducting strategic analysis. First of all,

agility is crucial for the procedure in current times. This stands in line with theory by Teece et

al. (1997, p. 510) that internal capabilities should be incorporated, and sensing is the first in

place. Examining strategic analysis in an agile way means to make short but frequent

procedures. The competence of sensing requires actions which enable a company to early

experience which changes are upcoming and what to expect (Teece, Pisano, & Shuen, 1997, p.

510; Torres, Sidorova, & Jones, 2018, p. 824). Furthermore, this competence, which was

suggested for strategic analysis today by experts, is similar to theory of stating that an iterative

approach should be used which is handled like the practice of prototyping where the process

goes on like a cycle which never ends (Martin, 2014, p. 2).


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Moreover, seizing which is second capability by Teece et al. (1997) can be compared to the

rapid reaction mentioned by interview participants. Also, the competence of flexibility can be

counted to this second ability. When opportunity or threat is seen with the support of agile

measures, organizations should know what to do by reacting rapidly and undertaking flexible

actions (Augier & Teece, 2009, p. 415).

Besides the way of approaching strategic analysis, the application of models is fundamental. In

order to thoroughly scan an unpredictable environment, appropriate methods and tools need to

be adopted. All interview participants agree with each other when it comes to methods which

address strategic foresight. Even though, one of the interrogated parties claims that strategic

foresight is not part of strategic analysis, each consultant is making use of the corresponding

tools. Also, in theory these methods are destined to support the process of strategic analysis in

unpredictable circumstances (Iden, Methlie, & Christensen, 2017, p. 88). Especially scenario

planning as a tool is frequently adopted by interview participants when conducting external

analysis for their clients. With the support of this method potential future scenarios and options

are discussed. The basic information which is gathered for the process of scenario planning

comes from various sources including interviews and databases. When comparing with theory

Saritas (2006) developed a model depicting different stages of strategic foresight process. The

first two stages understanding and synthesis & models are covered considerably by the

interviewed individuals. Whereas tools from the third phase which is analysis & selection have

not been mentioned and thus cannot be proven. The stage of transformation is approached by

one of the interrogated parties, who mentions to adopt roadmaps (Smith & Saritas, 2011, p. 85;

Saritas, 2006). Even though, as can be withdrawn from answers the process of analysis,

selection and transformation is not conducted on the basis of any framework but is rather

derived from discussion with clients. Rare answers in this field of strategic foresight process

may indicate that the procedure can still be more elaborated in practice.

Referring to models and tools which are part of external analysis it can be concluded that there

is still considerable usage among consultant companies. Theory suggesting facilitation of

strategy work when leaning on those techniques is confirmed by interview partners. Even

though, models like SWOT, Porter’s Five Forces and PESTLE are adopted for the situation of

a static environment (Johnson et al., 2017, p. 30), practice adoption brings the advantage of

orientation purpose.


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Six of seven research participants state that these techniques are used in order to get a complete

overview about current situation. The development of dynamic tools in external analysis

(Johnson et al., 2017, p. 58) is also common in practice. Innovation AG for example, explained

that in the process of strategic analysis a self-developed model is adopted to have a basis for

the gathered information. When coming to the sources of knowledge collection, research shows

that interviews are the main foundation. Furthermore, databases and research institutes are

approached for information about a given industry or market. When referring to theory, results

of research indicate that mainly personal and external knowledge is sought which is represented

by interviews. In the case of secondary data, impersonal and external knowledge is withdrawn

(Aldehayyat, 2015, p. 450; Daft et al., 1998, p. 124).

When comparing theory to empirical research, it could be found that several opinions from

qualitative research are not given in this master thesis’ theoretical framework. Because of

relevance to the topic, following lines will present aspects displayed for discussion. For

example, two consultants claim that through the influence of globalization, markets are more

homogenous today and this makes the process of strategic analysis simpler. Since several

regions adapted considerably into being global, comparison is facilitated, and one market can

be gathered from another. Even though, regions and cultures still differ from each other, this

aspect has to be considered as well. Moreover, concerning globalization when comparing

different countries with each other, it should be kept in mind that value varies across boundaries.

For example, same products will not have the same price in various countries. Within the topic

of globalization, another interesting point appeared about new opportunities given by the

establishment of networks. Having the advantage of knowing country experts or having access

to another nation, can deliver high number of information. Furthermore, one interview partner

points out that the practice of strategic foresight is not part of strategic analysis. Even though,

rest of research participants sees it as a connected process, opinion of one partner is different

with the explanation of scenario development happening a step further after analysis process.

Nonetheless, this is the opinion of minority and will not be further discussed. In the beginning

of this paper it has been stated that internal capabilities are compared to external factors and on

the base of this information, strategy can be further developed. Three interview partners

highlight the importance of a capability check before the start of strategic analysis. Purpose of

this action is the knowledge of an organization’s resources and the fact if examined firm will

even be in the position of a certain modification towards external opportunities and threats.


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8.2 Summary

Through the conducted analysis of interviews, it can be concluded which theories are reflected

by qualitative research. Primary and secondary data prove that strategic analysis faced a

tremendous modification through global and dynamic influences. Figure below displays

strategic analysis being influenced by global and dynamic modifications, developed on the basis

of the investigated information in this paper. Significant categories showed intercorrelating

relations with each other. Strategic analysis process as it was before, has been clearly discussed

by interview participants. This process as it has been known for a long time, becomes impacted

by global and dynamic factors. These forces also merge in some points that is why arrows are

pointed in both directions. Through influencing forces of currently present globalization and

dynamism, the process may also change in the field of unknown challenges and opportunities,

as can be seen on the right part of the model. When comparing strategic analysis process today

with the one before, recent affecting forces are not limited to external factors but can also

change the internal process of this practice. Tools and methods adopted today are new or differ

considerably or are supplemented by the use of further actions. Also, internal capabilities when

conducting strategic analysis process were pointed out to be important and need to be adapted

according to uncertain environment. In general, a multitude of single factors of the whole

process can be influenced by global and dynamic forces.

Fig. 16: Strategic analysis in a global, dynamic business environment


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On the basis of answers given by interview participants and examined theory, view on strategic

analysis changed. Figure below depicts a model of strategic analysis which refers to current

times in a global, dynamic business environment based on the responses given by seven

consultants. Results have been summarized and through the combination of all responses an

approach to strategic analysis process could be interpreted. On the basis of seven interviews,

summarized figure consists of four phases. The first step in strategic analysis, which is the

preparation phase, is to get an overall picture about the firm’s problem, its initial situation and

internal resources. Afterwards, in the scan phase, focus shifts to collection of information on

external factors. With an appropriate amount of knowledge, data is brought in order with the

support of static and dynamic models and methods. In this phase trigger points are identified

on which strategic foresight should be applied. As a further step, tools of strategic foresight are

adopted in which potential future events are discussed and valued. This happens in the vision

phase. As a result, selection stage’s purpose is to compile a package of measures on the basis

of selected future happenings. In the selection, also events are chosen which have lower

probability to happen. Nevertheless, this broad collection of occasions is required to be prepared

for several options. With this knowledge and set of actions, implementation can be approached.

The arrows imply the non-existence of a required sequence in the process. As findings show

that the elaboration of strategy and external analysis are both dynamic processes, no

predetermined plan of actions is required. In current environments, adaptation to given

circumstances is important. Nonetheless, decision on exact procedure will be depending on

situation and initial problem of the examined organization. Therefore, the development of a

general process will not be possible considering the dynamics in environments. Figure 17

below should only display the idea of this process generated after investigation of interviews.

Fig. 17: Summary of Strategic Analysis Process


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9. Conclusion

This chapter is the last one which represents the conclusion of master thesis. Initially set

research question will be answered in the first place. Afterwards, practical implications (chapter

9.1) will be presented and in the very end of this paper limitations and future research (chapter

9.2) will be discussed. The purpose of this study was to find out the development of strategic

analysis after the influence of a dynamic and global business environment. In the beginning of

this master thesis, a research question has been developed in order to address this matter:

“How does a global, dynamic business environment affect(change) strategic analysis of a

company?”

Findings show that the process of strategic analysis modified and adapted to current

circumstances which are arising. Regarding the research question, global and dynamic forces

in environment affect strategic analysis in several ways. First of all, the examined environment

is more complex and uncertain. These factors have been derived because of businesses being

able to cross countries and developments appearing rapidly in markets. Furthermore, the scope

of examined environment is considered as larger. Advanced possibilities to make business and

increasing competition due to reduction of borders, led to a broader range of performance. Due

to these settings, tools in strategic analysis adjusted. As a result, strategic foresight has gained

increasing awareness. Techniques of this practice enable to deal with potential future events

and the preparation of a package of measures. Furthermore, frameworks which concentrated on

a stable environment, are not in focus anymore and are rather used for supporting purpose.

Moreover, the practice of strategic analysis based on conducted interviews, puts the

investigated company in focus. Depending on the situation of client’s company, further steps

can be configured. Nevertheless, what has to be kept in mind is the ongoing process of strategic

analysis. Due to constantly changing environment, established options may have an expiration

date and therefore this practice is recommended to be done more frequently in a global and

dynamic business environment.


104

9.1 Practical Implications

Overall, this study provides insight into challenges which come along with a global and

dynamic environment. Furthermore, it shows how the process is approached nowadays by

approached experts. In practice it is important to investigate financial and internal resources of

examined company first. Furthermore, skills of researching party need to be analysed as well

and adapted to required capabilities which are favourable to be applied during strategic analysis

process. In general, keeping in mind the importance of this process is crucial. Strategy is not

monotonous anymore but should be rather seen as a dynamic and emergent process which can

be changed impulsively depending on situation. There is no right or wrong in the practice of

strategic analysis. Nevertheless, thorough study of arising tools and methods in the field of

external research is advantageous. Also, when wanting to keep up to date with occurrences in

the environment, requirements of successful strategic analysis process should be adopted as

well with consideration of dynamic capabilities and advanced techniques evolved.

9.2 Limitations and Future Research

Even though, master thesis is in general limited to a certain time frame and page limit, gaps of

this study will still be discussed. In the theoretical framework, presentation of case studies after

chapter three, four and five may be elaborated more. Nonetheless, the access to case studies is

generally difficult and if there was more time provided for the whole paper, high quality studies

may have been gathered directly from companies. Furthermore, empirical part of this thesis

would be more representative with a higher number of interview participants. Also, another

research technique may have been adopted additionally to interviews, like for example a focus

group where more insights would have been brought up. Therefore, future research should

concentrate on a higher number of research participants. Furthermore, it would be interesting

to investigate this topic with a sample coming from various industries and not only focusing on

consulting firms. Since, interviews were conducted with consultants from German speaking

countries, extension to other nations would be interesting as well. Nonetheless, new and

interesting insights could be found in this paper which give a first glance at current situation.


105

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Appendix I

Interview Transkript – Financial AG 30.7.2019

I: Also dann fange ich gleich mal mit meiner ersten Frage für Sie an, nämlich wie läuft der

Prozess der strategischen Analyse in Ihrem Unternehmen ab, wenn Sie ihn für Ihre Kunden

durchführen?

A: Gut, also der wesentliche Freilass (?) für strategische Analysen ist aktuell gerade das sich

massiv verändernde Kundenverhalten. Vorallem in der Bankenwelt, da bekommt man das sehr

mit. Und auch die Frage wie sich die Kundenschnittstelle verschiebt, zum Beispiel bei Retail

genauso. Also eigentlich fast für jede Dienstleistung, wo man früher in ein Geschäft gehen

musste, stellt sich heute die Frage „wie komme ich an den Kunden ran, wenn der nur noch auf

sein Smartphone schaut?“ und wie stelle ich sicher, dass meine Message und mein Inhalt bei

10 Menschen ankommt wo er ankommen soll. Das heißt die Diskussion, die wir jetzt

inzwischen sehr sehr oft hören, wo seid ihr überhaupt noch relevant und wo habt ihr als

Unternehmen noch eine Chance diese Schnittstelle zu besetzen. Und was heißt, wenn ihr da

nicht mehr relevant seid, weil euch eine Plattform eine Schnittstelle nach hinten drängt. Das

heißt bei uns beginnt es wirklich bei der massiv sich ändernden Kundenschnittstelle, das heißt

die Frage um die Relation herzustellen gab es früher nicht. Dass ich Kunden habe war sowieso

klar, ob es eine Bankdienstleistung ist oder eine Versicherung oder ich gehe in ein Geschäft

und kaufe mir dort ein Buch das ist was anderes sie gingen mitten dorthin, sie hatten keine

andere Wahl. Das ändert sich massiv. Und die Frage ist dann glaube ich daran? Das ist eine

Glaubensfrage, wobei glauben tun viele dran, dass sich was ändert. Wie definiere ich dann

meinen Platz wo ich sage, es ist aber trotzdem gut mit mir persönlich zu sprechen und es ist

trotzdem wertvoll, wenn man meine Dienstleistung in Anspruch nimmt. Was man früher nie so

machen musste, weil man ja sowieso musste und keine andere Wahl hatte, dann musste man

sich über diesen Mehrwert keine Gedanken machen. Und dann stellt sich die Frage was heißt

das für meine Strategie und da beginnt der Prozess.

I: Also der erste Schritt, ist wie Sie schon gesagt haben, dass man beim Konsumenten beginnt.

A: Oder beim Kunden, das kann auch einfach ein Unternehmen sein völlig egal. Da ändert sich

da alles nicht so viel. Also beim Endkunden ist es halt inzwischen deutlich weiter, auch das

ändert sich massiv.

I: Ok und können Sie sagen wie lange ca. so ein Prozess der strategischen Analyse im

Durchschnitt dauert?

A: Das dauert je nachdem zwischen 3 und 6 Wochen. Naja obwohl 6 Wochen sind schon relativ


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lange, sagen wir mal so 3 – 4 Wochen. Das ist halt die Frage wie groß das Unternehmen ist

oder wo es sich befindet. Ist das Unternehmen nur in Österreich bin ich in ca. 2 Wochen fertig.

Muss ich mir Märkte in Zentral und Osteuropa ansehen brauche ich etwas länger. Und wenn es

ein weltweit tätiges Unternehmen ist, dann ist es natürlich noch länger weil da muss man jeden

Markt, jeden Reifegrad und so weiter analysieren. Aber guten Gewissen 3-4 Wochen.

I: OK und wenn Sie die strateigsche Analyse im externen Umfeld durchführen, welche

Instrumente verwenden Sie da?

A: Naja es gibt auf jeden Fall einiges an Datenbanken was man nutzen kann, von Statista bis

andere was inzwischen auch gut funktioniert, um volkswirtschaftliche Daten sich anzusehen

oder das Nutzungsverhalten. Das spannende ist garnicht so sehr welche Datenbank ich habe,

sondern wie ich diese Daten dann sinnvollerweise in Trendanalysen einbringe. Also wir geben

analytics hinein also alleine aufstellen von Excel Sheets und Pie Charts reicht nicht mehr, weil

ich keine Prognosekraft habe. Und was noch dazukommt ist dieses klassiche in den Rückspiegel

schauen nicht mehr ausreichend, weil die Dynamik nach vorne hin schon zu groß ist, dass diese

Prognosen für die Zukunft betreffend immer schon schwierig waren und noch immer

schwieriger werden. Also geben wir mal ein Beispiel: Ich habe mit einem Kunden letzte Woche

geredet ob man über Voice Schnittstellen also sagen wir Siri, Alexa nicht das die letzte Bastion

ist. Also wenn man irgendwan mal mit einem Smartphone oder einem smarten Gerät reden

können und dort Dienstleistungen abfragen können, dann sind wir aus der Kundenschnittstelle

völlig raus. Ich krieg kein Marketing mehr vermittelt, ich kriege nur noch ein Ergebnis wenn

ich was such, ich habe unterschiedliche Sprachen die ich sprechen kann, etc. So glaube ich jetzt

daran, dass das passieren wird? Und wie schnell wird das gehen. Ich habe keine Ahnung, ich

weiß nur wie viel Geld Amazon und Google in diese Technologien stecken und ich bin mir

sicher, dass sie nicht nur wollen, dass wir mit ihnen reden können, weil es die logische,

menschliche Schnittstelle ist. So, ich schaue nicht nur wer hat sich, also ich kann mir

retrospektiv Datenbanken ansehen und sind es jetzt wirtschaftliche Daten oder

Konsumentendaten, es gibt auch Studien. Es ist eine Unmenge an Daten da und die Frage ist

wie bekomme ich aus denen einen Trend raus und schaffe ich es dann die Zukunft

vorherzusagen, die sich massiv ändert. Wir erleben alle die Beispiele, es gab vor 10 Jahren noch

keine Iphones also ich hatte noch ein Nokia und Blackberry und habe bei diesen Trends

mitgemacht. Wer sagt das voraus. Dann überlegen wir mal was das für einen Strategieprozess

heißt und die Strategiediskussionen sind jetzt viel variabler als früher, weil man auf viel mehr

Unwegsamkeit achten muss und gleichzeitig aber einen doch stabilen Kern als Unternehmen

hat der nicht so schnell weggehen wird. Wir werden gerade im Banking keinen Nokia-Moment


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haben. Wir machen Banking ganz anders für eine N26 (?) ist das dann lieb, aber man muss sich

trotzdem an Regeln halten. Ja wir können nicht einfach alles auf den Kopf stellen das wird nicht

funktionieren. Also von da her muss das dann auch immer bleiben, aber bei der Vorausschau

ist es einfach so dass man diese Information nicht in Datenbanken findet. Das heißt wer aus

anderen Industrien versucht in Ihre Wertschöpfungskette hineinzugehen, weil er eine

Zusatzdienstleistung anbietet. Zum Beispiel Zahlungsverkehr über Amazon Pay, Apple Pay

usw. und den Herrschaften in den Unternehmen ist es völlig egal ob sie mit diesen Produkten

Geld verdienen, die wollen nur Ihre Daten haben und die haben einfach so viel Geld, dass sie

sich sowas leisten können. Aber die Bank verliert die Schnittstelle und das geht immer weiter.

Früher war es mein gesichertes Geschäftsfeld, weil das konnte und durfte niemand anderer

machen, jetzt macht das einfach wer anderer. Das tut jetzt nicht so weh, weil es meistens eher

kleinere Beträge sind aber glaube ich jetzt daran, dass das exponentiell steigt oder nicht. Und

das macht die Arbeit eines Beraters gerade spannend. Also es ist viel mehr durch die

Windschutzscheibe schauen als durch den Rückspiegel. Also ich sehe das in der

Automobilindustrie, ich sehe es in der Konsumgüterindustrie, das ist überall das gleiche. Da

hat eigentlich keiner eine Ahnung wie er in Zukunft Geld verdienen wird.

I: Und wenn Sie dann diese Trends herausgefunden haben, stützen Sie sich dann an

irgendwelche Modelle, die man aus der Theorie kennt um diese ganze Information zu ordnen

oder wie gehen Sie da vor?

A: Also ich bin da persönlich und bei uns im Unternehmen ist das auch so, ich glaube nicht an

Modelle sorry. Ich habe das schon auf der Uni nicht geglaubt, es gibt keinen perfekten Kunden

und diese ganzen ökonomischen Modelle da glaubt auch kein Unternehmer daran. Das was die

dann interessiert sind die makroökonomischen Entwicklungsdaten, gut und schön aber wie das

dort hineinspielt was man in Zukunft machen soll. Ich kann Modelle generieren im Sinne von

Datananalytics und Daten Verknüpfung aber wirklich aus Daten neue Informationen und neue

Trends herauszulesen, also all diese Dinge wo ich vielleicht unterschiedliche Datenblöcke habe,

aus denen ein Bild kreiere. Aber das ist dann ein Rechnemodell und kein Modell, das man aus

der Theorie kennt.

I: Ja ich verstehe schon, sehen Sie eigentlich einen Unterschied, wenn man die strategische

Analyse bei kleinen und größeren Unternehmen durchführt?

A: Nein völlig egal, das ist nur eine Frage der Dimension. Aber die Komplexität bei kleineren

Unternehmen, wo man sich wahrscheinlich mit anderen Faktoren beschäftigt. Aber die

Fragestellung ist haargenau dieselbe. Für kleinere Unternhemen sind aber auch die

Auswirkungen des Marktes nicht so schlimm. Es ist dann einfach eine ganz andere Diskussion.


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Würden Sie zum Beispiel in einer Bank arbeiten wollen nach dem Studium?

I: Ich muss ehrlich sagen ich würde es in Erwägung ziehen, weil ich finde, dass sich Banken

heutzutage verändern und innovativer werden wollen und genau das macht es interessant.

A: Sehen Sie, das haben Sie jetzt genau auf den Punkt gebracht, dass ich, wenn ich mich als

Bank nicht massiv verändere und Menschen draußen das Gefühl haben, dass sie tun können

was interessant ist gehen sie ja dort nicht hin. Und das ist was, was die Banken massiv

beschäftigt. Und sie werden auch mehr Leute am Markt brauchen, die sie finden werden. Weil

das überlegen sicher alle Unternehmen. Jeder braucht jemanden, der mit Daten umgehen kann

und man muss mit der Zeit gehen. Aber wie mache ich das? Aber da haben die Unternehmen

noch garkeine Ahnung darüber. Es ist auch nicht Wissen, es sind gewisse Skills, die gefragt

sind. Also wenn ich zb Leute brauche, die Risikomanagement können klar, aber das ändert sich

ja auch in der Zukunft und was müssen die können und was wollen die Kunden? Das wird

bestimmt alles neu.

I: Ja da haben Sie recht. Sie haben ja auch schon erwähnt, dass sich alles drastisch verändert

hat und sehen Sie Auswirkungen, die die Globalisierung auf die strategische Analyse hat?

A: Naja eigentlich ergibt sich das aus den Antworten, die ich vorher schon gegeben habe, aber

wenn wir uns das jetzt aus dem Blickwinkel nochmal anschauen, ist die Art und Weise wie sich

die unternehmerische Wirtschaft ändert und sie ist sehr stark von Globalisierung getrieben. Das

heißt globalisierte Abhängigkeiten und Zahlungsverläufe und auch Services. Was zB in China

produziert wird just-in-time und nach Deutschland kommt und dann mit den Teilen genauso

eingebaut wird etc. das ist einfach auch ein ganz anderer Strategieprozess als früher. Und

zweitens ist auch dieses „Ich habe einfach keine Grenzen mehr“ durch globalisierte Angebote,

eine Riesenchance und gleichzeitig auch ein großes Risiko. Weil ich kann was nutzen aber

jemand anderes hat auch die Chance mir das wegzunehmen. Das heißt die Strategiediskussion

ist eine viel breitere grundsätzlich, allerdings wie es sich zeigt im echten Leben ist es halt dann

doch der Bereich, der mich gerade beschäftigt. Allerdings ist auch die Analyse eine deutlich

breitere. Und ich sage mal so wenn ich diesen Teil der Analyse nicht mitliefern würde und

wenn er nicht priorisiert wird, dann wäre sie nicht komplett. Weil da passieren ja auch wichtige

Dinge. Man muss sicherstellen, dass man weiß was da passiert, damit man dann auch

entscheiden kann ob man sich damit beschäftigen will. Die Globalisierung ist auch heutzutage

viel breiter wie früher und man muss auch viel mehr Sachen auf den Radarschirm nehmen.

I: Also ist es praktisch auch eine größere Herausforderung?

A: Natürlich.


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I: Und in den letzten Jahren gab es auch viele dynamische Veränderungen. Sehen Sie da

bedeutende Auswirkungen auf die strategische Analyse?

A: Also wieder dasselbe Ding nur aus einem anderen Blickwinkel, massiv. Weil eben das

Kundenverhalten und die Geschwindigkeit, die Aufmerksamkeitsspannen, die Kaufverhalten,

die sich massiv ändern. Und das natürlich egal wo ich in einer Produktkette bin oder in einer

Dienstleistung, ich mich daran anpassen muss. Und es gibt keine geschützten Werkstätten, wie

zb Banken und Versicherungen strenge Regeln befolgen. Es gibt auch einen guten Grund dafür.

Aber trotzdem wie bleibe ich relevant? Eine Industrie wo wir das massiv sehen ist die

Mobilindustrie, wir dürfen Projekte machen für die großen Automobilhersteller in Deutschland

und die sagen wir sind keine Automobilhersteller mehr, sondern Mobility Anbieter, weil viele

Menschen keine Autos mehr kaufen, weil das kein Statussymbol mehr ist, weil man es nicht

braucht, weil es teuer ist. Massive Veränderungen.

I: Und sehen Sie dann in diesem Zusammenhang vielleicht auch einen Vorteil für die

strategische Analyse?

A: Naja es ist ein Vorteil aus Beratersicht, weil der Strategieprozess jetzt viel spannender und

interessanter ist. Wenn es ein Unternehmen ist, das seit 10 Jahren in derselben Industrie ist und

eine ähnliche Performance hinterlegt und eine gute Marktperformance hat, dann ist die

Strategiearbeit überschaubar spannend. Selbst mit viel Gewalt bekomme ich da kaum ein

Szenario diskutiert. In Zeiten wie diesen wo keiner weiß was passiert, bekommt man mehr

Diskussion zusammen und das macht dann auch viel mehr Spaß, weil man selber nicht weiß

wo es hingeht. Und solche Fragestellungen gab es früher garnicht.

I: Ja und neben den dynamischen Herausforderungen und den Herausforderungen der

Globalisierung, sehen Sie noch andere Challenges für die strategische Analyse?

A: Ich glaube diese Balance zwischen wie viel Veränderung ist draußen und wie viel Chance

und Risiko ist es für mich diese Abwägung zu treffen ist die größte Herausforderung. Also im

Prinzip dann die richtigen Rückschlüsse zu ziehen. Einerseits ist diese Dynamik eine immense

Herausforderung wo man nicht weiß was man machen soll, andererseits abzuwägen ob die

stabile Performance wirklich in Gefahr ist. Also dass man im schlimmsten Fall zu viel ändert

und das ist die große Herausforderung. Und auch in der Strategiearbeit diesen Gegencheck zu

machen ist sehr wichtig. Also wäre es wirklich so schlimm, könnte es wirklich wer anderer.

Weil das uns und dem Kunden hilft auch ein bisschen einzuordnen und nur einem theoretischen

Ding nachzulaufen was vielleicht überhaupt nicht eintreffen könnte und das ist die große

Herausforderung. Je mehr Info, desto komplexer ist das Ding. Also am besten keep it simple.

Um es dann wieder auf den Punkt zu bringen ist es wegen der Komplexität dann viel


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schwieriger. Die Frage was ist die richtige Priorisierung meiner Entscheidung das wird dann

auch komplexer.

I: Ja ich verstehe schon. Und Sie haben ja auch erwähnt, dass man jetzt eher in die Zukunft

schaut und verwenden Sie da irgendwelche Instrumente oder Methoden?

A: Da bin ich wieder ein großer Freund von angewandtem Wissen und Hausverstand. Es gibt

natürlich Methoden um Kunden mit Zukunftsthemen zu konfrontieren, zb Designthinking wo

man versucht dem Kunden klarzumachen „was ist der Angreifer der euer eigenes Unternehmen

vernichten könnte?“ einfach damit man in der Strategiearbeit den Schritt nach draußen macht

übers eigene Haus reflektiert, herausfindet ob es da Schwächen gibt, wie ich sie attackieren

könnte, da würde man wieder die Rückspiegelung machen. Da geht’s eher um die Frage wie

kriege ich den Menschen dazu diesen Blick zu haben und das ist ein wesentlicher Teil der

Strategiearbeit. Und als Berater habe ich das große Vergnügen zu zeigen wie die Welt da

draußen laufen kann und läuft. Zeige ich dir mal und dann können wir besprechen was für dich

relevant ist. Und das ist eher die Methode, Menschen in diese Position zu bringen um darüber

nachzudenken was da eigentlich sein kann. So das ist das spannende und man muss das auf

jeden Fall mit dem Kunden darüber reden, weil der Berater alleine kann nicht sagen was jetzt

wirklich die Zukunft ist, das funktioniert nicht.

I: Und haben Sie sonst noch etwas zum Thema der strategischen Analyse hinzuzufügen?

A: Was ich grundsätzlich merke, ist dass das Thema wieder viel viel ernster genommen wird.

Also die Art und Weise wie man Strategiearbeit macht, war über die Jahre hin auch sehr

monoton und das ändert sich jetzt aber massiv. Das heißt das Thema wird wieder deutlich

ernster genommen und das wird auch so schnell nicht wieder aufhören glaube ich, weil es

einfach zu dynamisch ist und man nie das Gefühl hat man hat es unter Kontrolle.

I: Ja das stimmt, so einen ähnlichen Eindruck habe ich nach meiner Literaturrecherche auch

bekommen.

A: Ja es ist einfach so und es betrifft nicht nur die Finanzindustrie, sondern Versicherungen

stellen sich auch dieselben Fragen, oder die Automobilindustrie und Retail. Da werden

Diskussionen geführt, also vor 5 Jahren hätte ich mir noch nie gedacht, dass man über soetwas

redet. Und da merkt man einfach, dass sich das massiv ändert und eine große Unsicherheit ist

und dass man da einfach weiterhin im Spiel bleiben muss. Was ich aber nicht mehr erlebe, ich

spreche jetzt von größeren Häusern ausgehend oder Unternehmen ist dass man sagt „ganz

ehrlich ich habe eh alles unter Kontrolle“. Und das war zb noch vor 5 Jahren so.

I: Ja ich verstehe. Also wir sind jetzt am Ende vom Interview, vielen Dank dass Sie sich Zeit

genommen haben für das Interview.


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A: Bitte, sehr gerne!

Interview Transkript – Digital AG 31.07.2019

I: Vielen Dank, dass Sie sich für das Interview Zeit nehmen und dann fange ich gleich mal mit

meiner ersten Frage an: Wie läuft der Prozess der strategischen Analyse ab, wenn Sie ihn für

Ihre Kunden durchführen?

A: Also meines Wissens findet die strategische Analyse in sehr, sehr vielen Teilen eines

Projektes statt. Also in Projektaufträgen ist es so, dass man da vielleicht nur einen

Wettbewerbsvergleich macht aber keine soziopolitische Analyse. Sagen wir mal Daimler &

Benz möchte gerne seine Mobilitätsservices ausrichten oder schauen was man machen kann

und versucht um die Abwicklungen der Services zu temperalisieren eine Plattformlösung, da

machen sie auch eine strategische Analyse nämlich. Aber es ist dann wieder ganz was anderes,

wenn man überlegt einen neuen Standort zu eröffnen. Und das lagert auch auf den

verschiedenen Phasen also da wird nicht nur eine Analyse gemacht, sondern sie sagen was läuft

denn gerade bei uns gut was läuft denn schlecht. Wie macht man zb Kosten-Nutzen Analyse

sind wir profitabel oder können wir sogar profitabler werden. Und da liegen schon so viele

strategische Analysen vor bevor die Analyse über das Marktumfeld kommt.

Also was macht man bei so einer strategischen Analyse, Sie haben es ja schon am Anfang

erwähnt die internen und die externen Faktoren. Und wir untersuchen eben bei der externen

Analyse beispielsweise Wettbewerber. Also wenn Sie ins Pricing gehen wollen und sehen

wollen ob Sie die richtigen Preise gesetzt haben für Ihre Produkte oder ob Ihre Produkte

innovativ sind usw. dann schauen Sie auf den Wettbewerber, dann schauen Sie auf den Kunden.

Und strategische Analyse, wenn man es so sagen will ist nichts anderes als eine Marktanalyse.

Man setzt sich bestimmte Eckdaten, die einen interessieren zum Beispiel mit der Frage: Hat der

Kunde eine große Produktvielfalt? Bietet er Produkte für alle Kundengruppen an? Oder für

welche Kundengruppen bietet er an? Und solche Fragen werden dann bei der Analyse

beantwortet. Also sprich die werden ganz klassisch anfangen sie stellen eine Hypothese auf,

dass Ihr Wettbewerber ein besseres Produktportfolio hat in Bezug auf den Kunden,

Kundenzufriedenheit oder Sie sagen, dass Ihr Wettbewerber zum Beispiel profitabler ist in der

Darstellung seiner Produkte die er hat und so fangen Sie eine Hypothese an. Und dann fangen

Sie an diese Hypothese zu validieren und überlegen sich welche Punkte muss ich jetzt bringen,

um diese Hypothese zu validieren. Und die untersuchen Sie auf der externen Seite. Das ist der

Ansatz, den wir Strategen in Analysen machen. Und das ist auch immer sehr knifflig. Denn die

Eckdaten, das ist etwas was alles gerne hätten aber nicht haben. Weil niemand draußen gibt


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einen Einblick darüber wie seine Profitabilität ist, das geht nicht. Die wichtige Analyse ist die,

die ich intern fahre. Da habe ich ja alle Daten, die ich brauche zur Verfügung. Zumindest in

vielen Teilen und deswegen hat diese Analyse einen viel wichtigeren Stellenwert als die

Externe. Also wenn ich so darüber nachdenke, zum Beispiel Produktinnovation nehmen wir

das Beispiel, ich glaube, dass man als Unternehmen schauen kann wohin kann man sich

entwickeln. Zum Beispiel wie bei Apple, als die damals angefangen haben. Da kann man sich

natürlich vornehmen, dass man gleich was auf den Markt bringt was alle umhaut. Aber am Ende

muss man sich ja mal anschauen, was kann ich überhaupt leisten. Also bin ich überhaupt in der

Lage ein solches Produkt mit solchen Informationen überhaupt zu liefern oder zu erstellen. Und

das ist dann immer so der Zwiespalt zwischen einem Visionär und den Ergebnissen der

strategischen Analyse. Also das ist so der Ansatz, den ich unter einer strategischen Analyse

verstehe, sie ist nämlich die vorgeschaltete Phase in einem Projekt. Das ist eigentlich nichts

anderes als dass man die Ist-Situation nochmal abbildet. Also wo stehen wir eigentlich, wo steht

der Wettbewerber, das ist das Ziel der strategischen Analyse.

I: Und haben Sie da irgendwelche Methoden oder Tools, die Sie oft verwenden in der

strategischen Analyse?

A: Also es gibt an verschiedenen Hochschulen gibt es das Fach Business Consulting oder auch

Strategieberatung und da werden so die Grundlagen der Strategieberatung also die Methoden

erläutert. Und dann sind da solche Sachen wie eine Fishbone hinterlegt, oder eine Route-Cause

analysis wie man sich verschiedenen Themenfeldern nähern kann. Es gibt aber kein bestimmtes

Szenario, das man nutzt, man passt es immer dem Kunden an und wir haben manchmal auch

keine Hypothesen aufgestellt. Manchmal kann es sein, dass der Kunde schon ein sehr

geschärftes Bild hat was er eigentlich möchte und dann sagt er ich möchte eigentlich wissen

was meine Top Wettbewerber machen. Dann schaut man sich die Wettbewerber an und guckt

auf welche Information man legen kann und ob man laut Analyse in die Richtung, natürlich

sich was wünscht aber man eigentlich am Ende mit dem arbeitet was man hat. Und ich weiß

auch gar nicht ob die strategische Analyse so das richtige Wort ist, ich kenne gar nicht den

Unterschied zwischen einer Strategischen und einer operativen Analyse. Eine Analyse ist ja

immer die Aufnahme einer ist-situation oder die Aufnahme eines Problems oder die Aufnahme

einer Erörterung, das wird ja dann mit verschiedenen Methoden gemacht. Es kann auch sein,

dass ein Strategieprojekt mit einer großen Analyse anfängt aber am Ende sich nur um dieses

eine kleine Problem kümmert. Aber die Methoden und Tools, die es da gibt, können natürlich

überall eingebaut werden. Also eine Befragung, also zum Beispiel eine Eckdatenbefragung,


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was ein sehr häufiges Tool in so einer Analyse ist, wird bestimmt immer verwendet werden in

verschiedenen Bereichen.

I: Und sehen Sie da vielleicht eine Veränderung in der Anwendung der Tools? Also zum

Beispiel irgendeine Methode, die heutzutage viel mehr verwendet wird als vielleicht vor 10

Jahren oder umgekehrt, eins das nicht mehr verwendet wird?

A: Also ich könnte mir vorstellen, dass durch die Digitalisierung vielleicht gerade so diese

predictive analytics eine große Rolle spielen. Ja also predictive maintenance, analytics,

structure data und dann von diesen Daten heraus mehr Informationen zu generieren. Aber

ansonsten sehe ich da nicht so viele Unterschiede.

I: OK, ich und Sie haben jetzt auch schon über Veränderung gesprochen. Sehen Sie vielleicht

eine Veränderung, die durch die Globalisierung hervorgerufen wurde? In der strategischen

Analyse.

A: Naja, heutzutage schaut jeder nicht nur in einem einzelnen Markt, sondern interessiert sich

auch dafür was beispielsweise in anderen Ländern stattfindet. Zum Beispiel Entwicklung von

bestimmten Produkten, da schaut man dann mal nach Amerika was machen die dann eigentlich.

Und man übernimmt auch einzelne Methoden aus der amerikanischen Beratung, zum Beispiel

customer journey. Das ist für mich etwas, das früher nicht in Frage gekommen ist. Aber dieser

customer journey ist in meinen Augen etwas, das stark kommt und auf diese Weise und auch

diese Ansätze, die man so mitbekommt, also zum Beispiel Agilität und sowas, das finde ich

mittlerweile im Marketing ein sehr gut funktionierender Ausdruck. Beispielsweise im Super

Bowl da wird Werbung geschaltet und man ist dann auch fähig in der nächsten Werbepause

diese Einschaltung zu modifizieren und eben mehr auf die Ergebnisse der Viewer zu schließen,

oder man blendet ein anderes Produkt ein oder man ändert den Slogan nochmal kurz.

I: Und sehen Sie auch irgendwelche Herausforderungen, die durch die Globalisierung für die

strategische Analyse entstanden sind?

A: Ja sie müssen natürlich verschiedene Sprachen und Kulturen zusammenführen, es ist nicht

alles überall gleich. Und man muss schauen ob man über mehrere Märkte, die gleiche Aussage

treffen kann. Man muss sich auch darüber bewusst sein, dass in anderen Ländern andere

Kostenstrukturen gelten usw. Und auch wenn man zb die Profitabilität eines Unternehmens in

mehreren Ländern vergleicht, muss man abwiegen wie das richtige Verhältnis ist. Wir haben

zum Beispiel einen Konsumenten in Amerika und einen der in Deutschland ist, kann ich das

dann überhaupt noch vergleichen also nicht, dass ich exakt das von einem auf das andere Land

übernehme.


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I: Ja ich verstehe was Sie meinen. Jetzt haben wir ja über die Globalisierung geredet aber ein

anderes Thema sind dynamische Veränderungen. Sehen Sie da Auswirkungen auf die


A: Also bis auf das was ich vorhin angesprochen habe, eigentlich nicht. Ich finde, dass man die

Analyse häufiger machen sollte deswegen. Also sprich, habe ich früher meinen Markt über

Wettbewerber und andere Faktoren analysiert, hat das gereicht, wenn ich das einmal im Jahr

oder alle zwei Jahre gemacht habe. Heute durch die Schnelllebigkeit und auch durch die

Digitalisierung wo zum Beispiel bei einer Luftfahrtgesellschaft hat es 60 Jahre gebraucht mal

5 Millionen Kunden zu haben. Heutzutage mit Instagram, Uber und den ganzen anderen Tools

dauert das 1-2 Jahre. Also ich muss den Markt häufiger scannen, um beispielsweise meine

Daten zu aktualisieren.

I: Und sehen Sie abgesehen von diesen noch andere Herausforderungen, die sich für die

strategische Analyse ergeben?

A: In meinen Augen müsste man auch darauf achten, dass der Markt nicht mehr so homogen

ist. Also früher konnte man die Automobilbranche vergleichen, heute kann es aber sein, dass

das garnicht mehr geht und dann muss man die Wertschöpfungskette aufteilen. Also gerade

dieses Thema FinTech, Startups sind eben stärker betroffen.

I: OK, wir haben ja vorher auch schon über Tools gesprochen, die in der strategishcen Analyse

angewendet werden. Wenden Sie auch Methoden der Strategic Foresight in Ihrem

Unternehmen an?

A: Ja in der Analyse nicht. Also Szenarien werden natürlich entwickelt auf Basis der Daten,

daraus leitet man dann auch Handlungsempfehlungen ab. Aber das ist ja kein Instrument der

Analyse, oder?

I: Also so wie ich es jetzt verstanden habe, ist es eine Erweiterung der Analyse. Aber prinzipiell

verwenden Sie das?

A: Also nicht in der Analyse. Also in der Analyse geht es um das Unternehmen und darum was

ein Benchmark ist. Aber in meinen Augen entwickelt man da keine Szenarien.

I: Und wie gehen Sie prinzipiell mit strategischer Vorausschau vor?

A: Also ich teile die Projekte immer in 3 Teile. Wir haben eine Scanphase, dann eine

Fokusphase und eine Endphase. Und die Scanphase ist die Analyse, dann kommt die

Fokusphase das ist die Designphase. In der Designphase sagt man wie kann ich beispielsweise

dieses Gap das ich da ermittelt habe, wo stehen wir, wo steht der Wettbewerber. Es gibt ja

verschiedene Handlungsmöglichkeiten. Also zb wir machen nur das Minimum um uns am


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Markt zu erhalten oder wir wollen genauso gut sein wie im letzten Jahr. Man geht dann schon

mit so einer Definition rein, aber das ist auch sehr unterschiedlich

I: Und welche Tools verwenden Sie in der strategischen Vorausschau am häufigsten?

A: Ja also da gibt es eine Vielzahl, die Sie da nutzen können. Also strategic scoping, wir haben

da die Möglichkeit über mögliche zukünftigen Ereignisse zu diskutieren in Workshops, es gibt

sowas wie aktuelle Ratios und dann noch workshops wo man das strategische Vorhaben

erarbeitet. Sie können V(?)-Maps nutzen. Also ja da gibt es eine Vielzahl.

I: OK und sehen Sie da einen bedeutenden Vorteil, den man mit diesen Tools erreichen kann?

A: Ich generiere daraus Handlungsempfehlungen. Das ist ja der Vorteil, ich möchte wissen was

sie machen müssen, darum geht es ja.

I: Gut, dann sind wir am Ende unseres Interviews. Haben Sie vielleicht noch etwas zum Thema

der strategischen Analyse hinzuzufügen?

A: Nein.

Transkript Innovation AG – 9.7.2019

I: Danke nochmal, dass Sie sich Zeit nehmen. Wie läuft die Phase der strategischen Analyse

ab, wenn Sie diese für Ihre Kunden durchführen?

A: Also wie sie abläuft im Detail?

I: Ja genau, also der ungefähre Prozess wie man da normalerweise vorgeht.

A: Also, wenn wir zum Kunden kommen dann schauen wir uns zuerst einmal an wo der so

steht. Da haben wir verschiedene Methoden wie wir das rausfinden. Das ist eben von Kunde zu

Kunde verschieden. Meistens geht das auch Vorgesprächen schon heraus welche Methoden da

zur Anwendung kommen. Es wird aber bei uns sehr viel auf den Innovationsbereich gelegt.

Also da haben wir dann solche Methoden wie Design thinking oder einfach streichfertige

Methoden wo wir dann einfach herausfinden was will der Kunde, wo steht der jetzt gerade und

was will eigentlich der Endkunde am Markt. Was hat der für Probleme und wie können die

zwei wieder auf ein gemeinsames Level gehoben werden, sodass die Endkunden Probleme auch

von unseren Kunden gelöst und beseitigt werden.

I: OK und wie lange dauert ca. der Prozess der strategischen Analyse im Durchschnitt?

A: Das kommt auch wieder auf die Größe und den Umfang des Projektes darauf an und vor

allem auch des Kunden. Ich würde so schätzen, dass es so zwischen 1-2 Monaten sind.

Manchmal kann es sogar 3 Monate dauern.


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I: Und Sie haben auf jeden Fall schon über Methoden gesprochen und gibt es irgendwelche

Instrumente oder Methoden die früher angewendet worden sind jetzt aber nicht mehr

angewendet werden weil sie nicht mehr den aktuellen Anforderungen entsprechen?

A: Naja ich bin jetzt eigentlich erst seit einem Jahr bei dieser Firma dabei und jetzt kann ich

nicht wirklich sagen welche Methoden früher angewendet worden sind. Unser Unternehmen

leitet aber ganz stark vom eigenen Modell her. Das heißt das 7-K Modell und das verwenden

wir in der Innovationsarbeit und Strategiearbeit am häufigsten. Und natürlich ich kenne das 7-

K Modell auch erst seit einem Jahr und ich habe auch immer mit dem Business Model canvas

gearbeitet. Die meisten Kunden, mit denen ich arbeite, kennen den Business Model canvas auch

besser und wenn man jetzt einen schnellen Workshop durchführt dann macht man halt gerne

mal etwas mit der Methode, die dem Kunden schon bekannt ist, weil dann geht es auch einfach

schneller und man muss es nicht mehr erklären. Also so könnte ich es jetzt erklären, die neue

Methode ist 7-K, die alte Methode ist Canvas.

I: Mhm OK und Sie haben ja gesagt, dass das auf den Kunden angepasst wird. Gibt es da

generell einen Unterschied zwischen kleineren und größeren Unternehmen?

A: Es ist natürlich ganz, ganz verschieden und es gibt auch verschieden Projektsparten. Also

wir machen jetzt nicht nur klassische Strategieberatung, wie man es auch bei anderen

Unternehmen kennt, sondern wir machen da auch die Implementierung nachher wo wir auch

schauen, dass das alles Hand und Fuß hat und das schauen wir uns dann auch eben an. Zum

Beispiel wenn wir jetzt eine digitale Bank aufmachen dann müssen wir auch schauen, dass die

die Kunden auch anzieht und nicht so ist wie die Bank, die die Kunden heutzutage verliert. Das

ist dann natürlich ganz anders als wenn ich jetzt strategisch einen Vertriebskanal verbessern

will. Sondern da macht man einen kritischeren Vorgang in dem man mit anderen Firmen, die

das dann extra anbieten oder ergänzen müssen.

I: Mhm OK ich verstehe. Sie haben ja erwähnt, dass Sie erst seit einem Jahr in diesem Bereich

tätig sind. Aber können Sie mir vielleicht trotzdem sagen ob sich die strategische Analyse in

den letzten 10 Jahren verändert hat und wenn ja wie?

A: Ja also wenn man es jetzt aus Beratungssicht oder Konzernsicht macht da besteht da sicher

ein kompletter Unterschied, wenn man es zum Beispiel aus dem Konzern herausmacht dann

probiert man es natürlich so gut wie möglich, man hat zum Beispiel nicht die Frameworks die

man als Berater hat oder die Experten, die einfach schon das Wissen haben und einfach wissen

wenn sie an Entscheidungen steht dann kommt man bei Beratungen viel schneller zu Gange.

Also ich kann leider nur diesen Unterschied wiedergeben.

I: Ja das ist natürlich klar.


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A: Aber so von der Vergangenheit zu heute ist es für mich echt schwer.

I: Ja ist natürlich total verständlich. Sehen Sie vielleicht irgendwelche Auswirkungen, die die

Globalisierung auf die strategische Analyse hat?

A: Ja eigentlich nicht so wirklich. Also die ganzen Strategieberater sind auch oft international

tätig. Aber wenn man sich jetzt zum Beispiel den Schweizer Markt anschaut, die wollen nicht

mal einen Berater aus Deutschland holen der die Strategiearbeit macht, das machen sie nicht so

gerne. Sondern man sitzt dann doch bei einem Mittelständer in der Schweiz und soll den dann

doch auch verstehen. Wenn er zum Beispiel nur schweizer deutsch spricht und die ganze

Belegschaft nur schweizer deutsch spricht dann muss der strategische Analyseberater die Leute

auch verstehen. Und da sind sie zum Beispiel viel offener, wenn man in ihrer Sprache spricht

und die gleiche Kultur teilt als wenn man da jetzt international und auf englisch unterwegs ist.

Ich finde nämlich, dass das ein sehr wichtiger Aspekt ist, dass man nahe am Kunden ist und das

schafft man irgendwie auch nur wenn man lokale Leute an seiner Seite hat.

I: Ja das ist sehr interessant. Also wollen Sie damit sagen, dass das lokale immer wichtig sein

wird egal wie global sich die Welt entwickelt?

A: Genau also sagen wir so, die fachliche Vorarbeit und Vorleistung, die kann sicher global

stattfinden und wird dann auch auf globaler Ebene sehr wichtig wie man eben Strategien

entwickelt. Dieses ganze Wissen, das halt dann eben ein Berater mitbringt, das wird sicher

global entwickelt und nicht lokal, aber der Berater wird das dann sicher auf seinen Markt

anpassen, den er dann kennt und an seine Kunden und der weiß dann eben auch was funktioniert

und was nicht funktioniert und wird das dann eben auch lokal runterbrechen.

I: und wie sieht es in diesem Kontext aus mit dynamischen Veränderungen, die in unserer

Umwelt stattfinden? Gibt es da Auswirkungen auf die strategische Analyse?

A: Also in der Strategie ist es jetzt mehr so dass man was ausprobiert und weg von dem

vordenken also es ist jetzt besser mehr Geld in die Hand zu nehmen und irgendwelche

Experimente zu fahren und dann wird da nicht lange irgendeine große Strategie gemacht von

den Beratern und dann liegt sie in der Schublade und dann liegt es an denen das zu

implementieren. Wir gehen viel stärker jetzt in die Richtung, dass wir sagen oke wir werden

jetzt was ganz kleines machen um das halt zu beweisen und dann werden wir schauen ob das

zu unserem Ziel führt und ob wir richtig liegen oder uns abändern müssen und so geht es halt

irgendwie viel stärker in die Richtung dieser ganzen Start up Methoden.

I: OK ja das ist interessant. Und was sind Ihrer Meinung nach die größten Herausforderungen,

wenn man die strategische Analyse in dynamischen Umwelten anwendet?


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A: Die größten Herausforderungen sind halt doch das in alten Konzernstrukturen doch auch

von der Denkweise her Leute sitzen die auch vom Alter her recht konservativ sind und sagen

so haben wir es immer gemacht und was wollen wir jetzt mit diesen ganzen neuen Projekten

die wir da starten und ob künstliche Intelligenz zum Beispiel jemals was bringt. Was sollen wir

da als kleiner Mittelständler, das sollen die großen Unternehmen machen, lassen wir die mal

unser Kunde braucht das nicht und dann gibt es dann doch noch die Jungen die sowas gerne

ausprobieren wollen und was man dann doch immer merkt ist, dass man die Kulturen abtrennen

muss und schauen muss dass man dieses Projektteam etwas rauskriegt aus diesen alten

Konzernstrukturen, dass die ein bisschen für sich probieren können und dann wird auch wenn

es funktioniert aus der eigenen Firma eine Digitaleinheit oder sowas in der Art gegründet.

I: Und haben Sie abgesehen von den genannten sonst noch irgendwelche Herausforderungen

bemerkt, die sich für die strategische Analyse heutzutage ergeben?

A: Wenn man die strategische Analyse machen will so wie sie früher gemacht worden ist, es

ist alles schnelllebiger man kommt da auch nicht so richtig in die Tiefe, die ganze Expertise

wenn man jetzt sagt man will jetzt eine Digitaleinheit aufbauen dann muss man auch erst mal

diese ganzen Leute finden, die diese Expertise verkörpern und wenn man da dann irgendwo am

Land sitzt hat man bestimmt Schwierigkeiten auch solche Strategien umzusetzen weil man halt

auch nicht die Leute kriegt, die das auch verkörpern und leben. Da muss man dann auch anders

umdenken und Firmen müssen auch viel viel offener sein um Sachen auszuprobieren weil sonst

stößt man doch sehr schnell an Grenzen.

I: Und gibt es dafür vielleicht irgendwelche herkömmlichen Lösungen wie man diese Personen

die sich dagegen wehren, wie man die überzeugen kann für diese innovativen Methoden?

A: Ja also in der Beratung funktioniert das ja ganz gut, man hat ein Vorzeigeprojekt und dann

machen wir das manchmal auch so dass das Projekt in der gleichen Branche aber einem anderen

Land ist und dann ladet man die Vorstände von dieser Firma, die eben diese Probleme hat ein.

Vorallem wenn man in der strategischen Analyse Phase sind laden wir die ein um sich das

anzusehen und zeigen ihnen wie wir das bei einem anderen Projekt umgesetzt haben und dann

reden die mit deren Vorständen und dann gibt es auch manchmal ein Event wo die Leute

industrieübergreifend vor Ort sind und wo wir dann eben Präsentationen vor Ort machen und

die Kunden von uns, die schon erfolgreich in dem Strategieprozess waren, dass die dann

Präsentationen darüber machen und da ihnen die Herausforderungen auch aufzeigen und da

eben schildern wie auch geholfen worden ist diese Hürden zu überkommen. Also das sind schon

die besten Methoden, dass man einfach die Leute, die das schon ein bisschen durchlebt haben

zusammenbringt mit den Leuten, die kurz vor der Situation stehen in sowas einzutauchen.


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I: Sehr gute Taktik. Aber wenn Sie jetzt zum Beispiel am Anfang den Markt Ihres Kunden

analysieren, verwenden Sie da irgendwelche speziellen Technologien für diesen Prozess?

A: Ja wir haben in unserem Unternehmen zwei Mitarbeiter, einer war früher beim

Zukunftsinstitut, der andere hat bei einer anderen Beratung sich auf Trends spezialisiert und die

gehen halt wirklich auch zu so Automobilbauern rein und sagen ok wie sieht denn die Mobilität

in 20, 30 Jahren aus, wo geht das hin. Und dann werden mit Szenarienanalyse Vorschläge

gemacht wie das ausschauen könnte und bearbeiten das auch mit dem Kunden und genau so

wird das dann auch gemacht.

I: OK, und Sie wissen ja das der Überbegriff von der Szenarienanalyse Strategische

Vorausschau ist, also Strategic Foresight und Sie gehen üblicherweise so vor, dass sie da zu

anderen Unternehmen gehen oder zu Experten der Branche?

A: ja also Studien oder sowas in der Art publizieren wir eigentlich nicht so stark. Also wir

zitieren Studien, die wir eben am Markt sehen und referenzieren uns darauf. Aber so richtig

white Papers schreiben das tun wir nicht. Wir sind halt dann doch eher ein kleineres

Beratungshaus wo es um die Beratung selbst geht, obwohl wir auch stärker in diese

Contentrichtung gehen. Und wenn man viel aquirieren muss und dann auch noch viel content

produzieren muss dann bekommt man auch viel auf den Tisch.

I: Und welche Vorteile sehen Sie bei der strategischen Vorausschau?

A: Die strategische Vorausschau ist vor allem für uns ganz wichtig damit wir mal den

Möglichkeitspool erweitern und die uns wirklich rausreißt von den alltäglichen

Herausforderungen vor denen wir halt jetzt stehen und wirklich mal breit aufmacht wo geht es

in Zukunft denn überhaupt hin und ist das was wir hier jetzt entwickeln also ob der neue Diesel

jetzt schneller oder besser oder sparsamer ist, ist das jetzt wirklich das Ziel oder ist der Fokus

jetzt doch wo anders in der Zukunft und so macht man sich dann auch ganz andere

Möglichkeiten auf und das ist auch ganz wichtig für eine gute Strategie dass die dann darauf

aufbaut.

I: Und haben Sie dann mal erlebt, dass die Kunden nichts von diesen neuen innovativen

Methoden der strategischen Vorausschaue gehalten haben?

A: Ja also das ist auf jeden Fall jedes Mal eine Herausforderung, diese neuen Methoden zu

„verkaufen“ aber ja wenn er Kunde da bisschen dagegen ist dann muss man versuchen das

hineinzubringen neben der traditionellen strategischen Analyse auch die Vorausschau

einzufügen. Und dann wird das im Laufe des Projekts mit dem Projektteam durch diskutiert

und so kommt man dann auch recht schnell auf etwas wo man zb 4-5 Felder sieht die in der


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Zukunft interessant sein können und dann versucht man für diese Felder Ideen zu generieren.

Und dann sieht man ja wo das hingeht.

I: Ja ich verstehe. Also eigentlich sind wir jetzt am Ende des Interviews angelangt. Haben Sie

noch irgendetwas zur strategischen Analyse hinzuzufügen?

A: Ja also ich bin überzeugt, dass die strategische Analyse in den nächsten Jahren ein sehr

spannendes Feld bleiben wird vor allem dass die IT-Landschaft immer mehr verstanden und

adaptiert werden muss und immer mehr Technologien einschätzen kann. Und es ist wichtig das

Wissen zu haben was überhaupt möglich ist wie lange es dauert neue Ideen zu implementieren.

Vor allem das ist dann eine Herausforderung noch, dass man strategisch etwas umsetzen will

aber man die Umsetzung komplett im Zeitablauf unterschätzt. Auf der anderen Seite muss nicht

alles immer kostenintensiv sein, denn es gibt dann auch manchmal die Überraschungen, dass

man, wenn man kleine Experimente startet da erst Erfolge feiern kann und den Prozess nicht

zu kompliziert macht am Anfang, damit man auch sehr schnell Erfolge haben kann.

I: Danke für Ihren Input!

Transkript Consumer AG– 26.08.2019

I: Danke nochmal, dass Sie sich Zeit genommen haben für das Interview! Ich fange gleich mit

meiner ersten Frage an: Wie läuft die Phase der strategischen Analyse ab, wenn Sie diese für

Ihre Kunden durchführen?

A: Also das ist meistens mit einer statusquo Betrachtung also wo steht das Unternehmen heute

mit Bezug auf die klassischen Felder Wettbewerb, Technologie, mögliche

Produktentwicklungen, Servicegeschäft und wo wir verstärkt auch Wert legen ist eine

Gegenüberstellung der Fähigkeiten. Also welche Fähigkeiten hat das Unternehmen heute also

zb Technologiekompetenz, Servicekompetenz, Saleskompetenz dann weiter runter gebrochen

Digitalisierungskompetenz um einfach mal eine Standortbestimmung zu machen. Und dann

wird das ganze ergänzt um eine Szenarioplanung sprich welche Entwicklungen rundherum sei

es jetzt regulatorisch, sei es Marktentwicklung in Kombination natürlich,

Wettbewerbsentwicklung, kann man da zum Beispiel gemeinsam entwickeln für die Zukunft

auf Basis eben von Market insights öffentlicher Studien um dann eben ein gemeinsames Bild

zu entwickeln wo können denn die Märkte und die Gebiete wo ich mich heute bewege sich

hinentwickeln aber auch um zu sagen wo gibt es neue Geschäftsfelder wo ich mich

möglicherweise hinentwickeln kann.

I: OK, OK und wie lange dauert ca. so ein Prozess der strategischen Analyse?


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A: Also ich würde mal sagen von unserem Projekt geschätzt her alles zwischen 8 Wochen und

16 Wochen

I: Aha, und Sie haben ja auch erwähnt, dass Sie Szenarien Planung anwenden und stützen Sie

sich da auf irgendwelche Methoden oder Modelle aus der Theorie oder haben Sie da einfach

einen herkömmlichen Prozess, der im Unternehmen standardisiert ist?

A: Gut ja da sind wir flexibel auf den Kunden also wie der Kunde das haben will. Was wir

natürlich da präferieren in der agilen Arbeitswelt stark mit kurzen Strings zu arbeiten, schon

auch Szenarien zu entwickeln aber eher in einer schnellen Art und Weise, damit man auch eine

mögliche Geschwindigkeit dann kriegt in solchen Projekten, Experten zusammenruft und dann

auch einfach die Welt skizziert so wie sie ist und dann selber schaut wie man aus eigener Kraft

diese Szenarien entwickeln kann dann auch ob man die mit Experteninterviews verbinden kann,

oder Trendforschern, Instituten, globalen Meinungsführern. Um da aufzubauen wie auf heutige

Entwicklungen bemerkt werden, zukünftige Produkte, Technologietrends, wie entwickeln die

sich, wie schnell werden sie profitabel, in welcher Region sind sie präferiert zu sehen, etc. und

das dann durchzuführen.

I: OK und werden in diesem Prozess auch irgendwelche speziellen Technologien verwendet,

um diese ganzen Informationen herauszufinden?

A: Da gibt es Datenbanken, Studien, Experteninterviews intern wie extern. Aber auch teilweise

keine Frage Interviews potentiellen Wettbewerbern, wenn das gewünscht ist oder auch

aktuellen Wettbewerbern, wie die diese Entwicklung sehen. Also die klassischen Instrumente

sind nach wie vor noch, das hat sich mal nicht so stark geändert. Was sich stark geändert hat ist

der Zeithorizont und die Schnelligkeit diese durchzuführen aber auch dann darauf zu achten

wie schnell sich die Umwelt ja doch radikal verändert.

I: Also mit Zeithorizont meinen Sie jetzt die Schnelllebigkeit der Veränderungen oder dass man

jetzt auf verschiedene Zeithorizonte in der Zukunft blickt?

A: Es gibt ja zum Beispiel solche Triggerpoints Bewertungen, das macht man schon. Aber da

ja der Optionraum immer größer wird und auch immer stärker davon abhängt welche externen

Faktoren nun eintreten. Ich sage mal, wenn ich auf die Energiebranche schaue in 2011

Fukushima das hat zum Beispiel keiner einplanen können, aber das sind einfach so Black Swan

Ereignisse, die man dann einfach schon mitreinnimmt in diese Betrachtung, um quasi auch die

Strategie flexibler zu gestalten. Ich glaube auch dass es diese langfristige Strategie, die wir vor

10 Jahren entwickelt haben, einfach in der Form nicht mehr gibt, sondern eher auf die

Flexibilisierung. Wie flexibel kann ich auf solche Triggerpoints reagieren, wie kann ich mich

da auch flexibel und agil aufstellen, die auch immer entscheidender werden für Unternehmen.


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I: OK, Sie haben ja erwähnt, dass die Strategieentwicklung vor 10 Jahren sehr anders war wie

heutzutage. Sehen Sie da auch Auswirkungen der Globalisierung auf die strategische Analyse?

A: Ja auf jeden Fall! Da sag ich mal die Szenarien und den Optionsraum den man aufspannt

das ist jetzt einfach immer global. Also früher hat man wahrscheinlich eher regionale Strategien

gemacht und war da auch eher sag ich mal in kleineren Gebieten unterwegs. Heute ist es einfach

immer globale Entwicklung, globale Möglichkeiten, wo man dann eintritt und wie man dann

lokal eintritt das ist bestimmt dann wiederum regional also think global, act local aber die

Szenarien und die Gesamtstrategie beruht immer auf globalen Betrachtungen.

I: Mhm OK und sehen Sie da Herausforderungen, die durch die Globalisiserung eintreten?

A: Also in der Möglichkeit der Betrachtung auf jeden Fall. Weil es ja auch möglich ist nachher

umzusetzen an den Wettbewerber. Da muss man einfach immer global denken und auch immer

denken, das kommt jetzt auch auf den Produkteservice an, also was auch immer die anbieten.

Aber gewisse Märkte sind einfach per se global heutzutage und sind nicht mehr regional und

das hat die Globalisierung schon gefördert. Und natürlich muss man auch von anderen

Kostenstrukturen heutzutage denken und sich einfach überlegen, da kommt man jetzt wieder

zurück auf die Fähigkeiten wo habe ich denn mein „right to win“. Also wo habe ich meine

Fähigkeiten als Unternehmen, also in welchen Märkten und warum kann ich da agieren und

auch erfolgreich agieren. Und ich kann mich eben mit einer Kostenstruktur eines asiatischen

Wettbewerbers, wenn das mein einziges Führungsmerkmal ist, brauch ich da gar nicht antreten,

weil da habe ich einfach kein right to win und das ist natürlich auch ein Ergebnis der

Globalisierung.

I: Ja ich verstehe. Heutzutage erlebt man ja auch überall das Phänomen der dynamischen

Veränderungen und dass es da auf jeden Fall Auswirkungen gibt auf die strategische Analyse.

Welche bedeutenden Herausforderungen sehen Sie denn in diesem Kontext?

A: Es gilt die Strategie dynamisch und agil zu entwickeln und auch zu halten. Also es gibt keine

starren Strategien mehr, weil man sieht, man befindet sich in einem dynamischen Umfeld. Man

muss auch eine sehr hohe Flexibilität einplanen in der Strategie, das ist die größte Auswirkung.

Die Strategie ist meiner Meinung nach jetzt auch kurzlebiger. Früher hat man eine Strategie

entwickelt, die war 20 Jahre lang gut. Heutzutage ist das nicht mehr der Fall.

I: Und wie kann man sich das vorstellen, wie oft entwickelt man dann heutzutage eine Strategie?

A: Also ich würde sagen die Zyklen, vor allem die Überprüfungszeitpunkte sind deutlich

kürzer, also wahrscheinlich jährlich. Um auch zu überprüfen ob die in den Szenarien

entwickelten Punkte, also Triggerpoints ob die eingetreten sind oder nicht. Und dann kann ich


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meine strategischen Optionen sehen. Und habe eine Richtungsentscheidung und ich glaube

genau das ist dann das Gesamtkonstrukt, das flexibler und kurzfristiger geworden ist.

I: Ich verstehe. Sehen Sie vielleicht noch andere bedeutende Herausforderungen, die sich für

die strategische Analyse ergeben?

A: Also Flexibilität haben wir besprochen, die Agilität, die Kurzfristigkeit auf ein Umfeld

reagieren zu könne. Ich glaube auch dass die Komplexität immer größer wird weil wir eben

über globale Entwicklungen reden und globale Märkte. Und die Zusammenhänge auch

industrieübergreifend im Rahmen von Digitalisierung, Innovationszugänglichkeit das auch

immer schwieriger machen wird und weil auch der Kunde immer schnelllebiger auf seinen

Bedarf auf seine Ansprüche decken will, verändert.

I: OK, und ich glaube ich habe vorher auch kurz erwähnt, dass man jetzt mehr in die Zukunft

schaut und in meiner Masterarbeit behandle ich auch das Thema Strategic Foresight. Gibt es da

noch andere Instrumente und Methoden außer der Szenarienentwicklung, die Sie da verwenden

oder verwendet haben?

A: Genau also die Szenarienentwicklung haben wir schon. Und was in strategic foresight auch

noch wichtig ist und wichtiger wird und das war früher nicht so ist, weil man heutzutage mehr

digitale Möglichkeiten hat. Die finanzielle Planung wird schon abgebildet innerhalb der

Strategieplanung. Also was hat das ganz runtergebrochen für einen Impact auf mein EBIT,

Revenues, etc. da ist man im Strategic Foresight auf jeden Fall weiter als früher weil man da

auch mehr technische Möglichkeiten hat um das auch mehr runterzubrechen.

I: Und haben Sie da im Rahmen der Strategic Foresight auch eine übliche Voregehensweise

oder ist das da eher kundenspezifisch?

A: De facto ist es einfach in die Zukunft schauen und zu überlegen um einzelne Faktoren die

mit dem Kunden abgestimmt sind, beleuchtet werden, welche Entwicklungsströme gibt’s da

und welchen finanziellen impact hat es dann runtergebrochen, welche triggerpoints, black swan

sind eingetreten also das gleiche eigentlich.

I: Und sehen Sie da irgendwelche Herausforderungen, wenn man strategic foresight Methoden

anwendet?

A: eine große Herausforderung ist eben der capability check, den ich vorher erwähnt habe also

kritisch seine eigenen Fähigkeiten einmal zu hinterfragen ob ich denn alle an Bord habe und

was ich brauche um das alles gemeinsam zu reflektieren. Und eben wenn ich in dieses

Geschäftsfeld reingehe welche neuen Möglichkeiten gibt es denn da noch.

I: Und haben Sie auch schon mal erlebt, dass es einen Widerstand gegenüber solcher

innovativer Methoden gab von der Kundenseite her?


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A: Absolut. Weil das ist doch ein eher kreativer Prozess zu einem gewissen Grade weil man in

neue Geschäftsfelder reingeht, wo man sich auch eher von dem jetzigen Fall wie man was macht

lösen muss. Und das sind dann auch die, die neues denken, neues machen und neues

voraussehen und da gibt es natürlich Widerstände, selbstverständlich.

I: Und mit welcher Vorgehensweise können Sie dagegen ankämpfen?

A: Also was da wirklich hilft ist die Transformation also die Kunden von Anfang an mitnehmen

in dieser Szenarienentwicklung und eben auch in diesen agilen Workshops mal out of the box

mit neuen Ansätzen und in einem think tank sie zusammenzubringen, mal rauszugehen aus dem

gewohnten Umfeld das hilft schon deutlich. Und dann eben den Meinungsführer mitnehmen

mit dem durchdiskutieren, sodass man auch schnell den Fluss in die Organisation bringt

I: Ja ich verstehe. Also eigentlich haben Sie schon alle meine wesentlichen Fragen beantwortet.

Haben Sie noch etwas hinzuzufügen oder einen kurzen Abschlusssatz über die strategische

Analyse von heute?

A: Auf jeden Fall, also zum Abschluss nochmal es wird alles schnelllebiger, es wird in kürzeren

Zeiträumen gedacht, es wird aber globaler gedacht also man muss flexibler sein. Digitale

Möglichkeiten ermöglichen einem dann aber auch die Strategie bis ins Detail runterzubrechen

also für die Organisation. Und am Schluss steht für mich die capability driven strategy sprich

man muss immer auf die Fähigkeiten, die ich habe und die ich benötige berücksichtigen sonst

wird meine Strategie nie erfolgreich sein.

I: Ja, sehr gut. Und eine allerletzte Frage habe ich noch: also in dem Prozess der Strategie und

der Strategieentwicklung da gibt es ja viele verschieden Typen aus der Theorie also zum

Beispiel gibt es ja die verschiedenen schools of thought. Und in dem Planungstyp ist als letzter

Schritt des Strategischen Management Prozess die Kontrolle der Strategie. Wenn man in der

Kontrolle merkt, dass etwas schief geht dann geht man zum vorherigen Schritt zurück und

macht die Analyse nochmal zum Beispiel. Wie sieht das in der Praxis aus?

A: Ich glaube, dass man heutzutage nicht mehr zurückgeht sondern, dass man an dem

Entscheidungspunkt durch die heutige, schnelllebigere Planung sich schon die Alternative

überlegt hat. Sodass man nicht sagt „ok das war jetzt falsch“, sondern, dass man sagt „ok es ist

jetzt der Punkt eingetreten, jetzt gehe ich den anderen Weg oder einen der anderen Wege, die

auf meiner Analyse basieren. Ich glaube darum ist die Strategie heute auch viel schnellebiger

und auch Unternehmen in der Anpassung schneller geworden sind weil man nicht eher das

Feedback danach macht sondern versucht das schon im Vorhinein zu durchdenken.

I: Ok sehr gut, vielen Dank für den interessanten Input!


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Interview – Technology AG 27.08.2019

I: Vielen Dank, dass Sie sich Zeit genommen haben für das Interview. Fangen wir gleich mal

mit meiner ersten Frage an: wie läuft die Phase der strategischen Analyse ab, wenn Sie diese

für Ihre Kunden durchführen?

A: Vielleicht müssen wir das ein wenig eingrenzen, weil strategische Analysen machen wir in

sehr vielen Kontexten, wir machen sie fast nie so für sich allein, sondern fast immer im Rahmen

einer anderen Aufgabenstellung. Zum Beispiel Analysen die wir hauptsächlich machen: es

kommt eine neue Technologie und die zeichnet sich ab, die hat disruptives Potenzial und aus

dem Anlass bezogen sagt das Unternehmen wie muss ich mich hinsichtlich dieser neuen

Technologie, dieser neuen Möglichkeit, dieser neuen Bedrohung aufstellen? Also meine

Erfahrung ist die, dass wir die strategische Analyse immer unter einer Überschrift machen, bei

mir ist es häufig die Überschrift neue Technologie, disruptives Potenzial, neue Chancen, neue

Risiken die daraus erwachsen. Da wird es bestimmt viele Alternativen geben, aber unser

Vorgehen ist, dass wir uns zunächst mal fragen, bei einem Event dass das Unternehmen

beeinflusst, welche Geschäftsbereiche sind davon besonders betroffen und dann in der 2. Phase

gehen wir in jedem betroffenen Bereich in eine Szenarioanalyse. Das heißt wir fragen uns wenn

wir in die Zukunft schauen, welches Szenario halten wir für möglich, für wahrscheinlich und

was wären die Konsequenzen dieser Szenarien und dann als drittes gehen wir hin und sagen ok

wenn alle diese Szenarien mit einer bestimmten Wahrscheinlichkeit eintreffen und bestimmte

Risiken haben, was ist ein Maßnahmenpaket, dass ich aus den in den von mir relevantesten

Szenarien bestimmte Ziele erreiche. Jetzt schauen wir auch darauf, dass wir aus der Analyse

solche Dinge festhalten die wir, egal welche Szenarien eintreten, für die günstige Optionen

sind. Generell schauen wir auch darauf, dass wir uns Optionen erarbeiten, denn Optionen haben

auch einen Wert. Genau also wir schauen uns die Szenarien an und aus den am

wahrscheinlichsten geachteten Szenarien was die Positionierung des Unternehmens ist was in

den Szenarien den größten Wert stiftet.

I: OK ich verstehe. Und Szenarien Entwicklung das ist ja in der Theorie ein Teil von Strategic

Foresight, haben Sie da auch andere Methoden, die sie in diesem Bereich dann auch

verwenden?

A: OK, also Szenarienanalyse ist tatsächlich das Mittel der Wahl, wir holen uns auch

Forschungsdaten oder von Zukunftsforschungsinstituten holen wir uns eine Meinung. Und was

sich im Bereich Forecasting also makroökonomisch da haben wir natürlich Experteninterviews,

delphic approaches. Das ist aber für uns, wie soll ich sagen, ein Input in die Szenarienanalyse.

Also die Szenarienanalyse ist so ein Punkt wo die Dinge dann griffig werden, weil mit so einem


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Szenario da kann man dann sich gut dahinter versammeln. Das ist dann eine Sicht der Zukunft,

also eine gute Basis, auf die man aufbaut. Ja wir machen also eine ganze Reihe an

Researchaktivitäten und für uns ist das Ziel eigentlich zu diesen Szenarien zu kommen. Denn

ich kann nicht aufgrund von Forecasts irgendwelche Dinge machen und Forecasts sind häufig

Mittelwerte und gerade solche Mittelwerte können sehr leicht einen täuschen. Weil auf den

Erwartungswert bin ich dann quasi vorbereitet, aber die Ausreißer, die dann weggemittelt

werden, auf die bin ich es nicht. Und insofern ja, da geht sehr viel Research mit ein, wie gesagt

eher makroökonomisch mit Experten, delphic approach wie auch immer. Zusammenfassen tun

wir es dann aber eigentlich immer in der Szenarioanalyse.

I: Und können Sie mir sagen wie lange so ein Prozess der strategischen Analyse ca. im

Durchschnitt dauert?

A: Gut, das ist tatsächlich von bis. Manchmal kommen Kunden auf uns zu mit einer sehr

spezifischen Frage, es geht ja nicht immer um das ganze Unternehmen. Sondern manchmal geht

es vielleicht um den Geschäftsbereich A und die spezifische Situation wird hervorgerufen durch

B. Also wenn der Scope sehr sehr klein ist, dann kann sich das belaufen auf 6-8 Wochen, es

kann aber auch manchmal doppelt so lang sein.

I: Gut, Sie haben ja erwähnt dass Sie viele Researchquellen verwenden. Haben Sie da vielleicht

auch irgendwelche Modelle oder Methoden an die Sie sich stützen aus der Theorie. Wie ist das

in der Praxis?

A: Ja machen wir natürlich, also die traditionellen Modelle sind natürlich sehr gute Methoden

um seine Gedanken zu ordnen. Ist aber jetzt nichts was uns als Berater irgendwie differenziert.

Also zb Porter’s Five Forces und SWOT Analyse das kann natürlich jeder. Ein gutes Mittel um

mal eine gewisse Vollständigkeit über die Sicht zu bekommen aber diese Methoden kann man

gut mit der Szenarioanalyse verbinden, sodass ich mich immer frage: Nehmen wir an folgendes

Szenario tritt ein wie sind wir dann positioniert à SWOT. Ja oder nehmen wir an ein Szenario

tritt ein was heißt das dann zum Beispiel für new entrants, da wären wir dann wieder bei den

Five Forces. Also ja das geht in die Szenarios in die strategische Analyse mit ein ist aber

mittlerweile für uns Berater commodity. Und aus unserer Sicht, vorallem weil ich mich

hauptsächlich mit neuen Technologien befasse, da geht es dann darum sich ein Bild von der

Zukunft zu machen oder mögliche Bilder der Zukunft zu haben, weil das viel spannender ist

als jetzt den Status quo in der SWOT Analyse zu machen.

I: Ja das ist verständlich. Na dann komm ich jetzt mal zu meinen nächsten Fragen. Nämlich,

sehen Sie eine Veränderung in der strategischen Analyse innerhalb der letzten 10 Jahre?


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A: Ja, also bei Strategie geht es ja darum, wie positioniere ich das Unternehmen und auch auf

einem längeren Zeithorizont. Also nicht taktisch, wie reagiere ich auf kurzfristige Opportunities

aber wie finde ich aus wo das Unternehmen gerade steht und wie verändere ich die

Positionierung langfristig. Langfristig sind so Zeiten wo wir einen exponential change haben

weil wir viele disruptive Technologien haben ist langfristig viel schwieriger geworden. Und

genau in dem Thema Szenarioanalyse, weil in vielen Fällen der Beobachtung kann man sich

nicht sicher sein was die richtigen Wege sind und häufig habe ich so ein Gefühl, dass ein

Konsensus also was das Wahrscheinlichste Szenario ist und dann gibt es dann immer so eine

herrschende Meinung wie sich die Dinge entwickeln werden aber das hilft eigentlich recht

wenig. Sehr sehr wichtig sind eben auch die etwas exotischeren Entwicklungen wie black

swans. Also exotischere Entwicklungen die eine bestimmte Wahrscheinlichkeit haben immer

auch auf dem Schirm zu haben und eben für solche Entwicklungen in der strategischen Analyse

zumindest Optionen zu haben. Also um die Frage zu beantworten: Ja es ist deutlich anders als

vor 10 oder 20 Jahren und es ist deshalb anders weil die Zukunft noch unsicherer geworden ist.

Deshalb legt man in der Szenarioanalyse einen sehr großen Wert darauf Optionen zu

entwickeln. Und in Folge dessen, dass man sich Optionen entwickeln möchte ist ja der große

Player, so Inkubatoren zu haben. Da geht es nicht nur darum modern zu erscheinen sondern

darum wenn sich bestimmte disruptive Elemente entwickeln, dass man dann mittendrin ist, dass

man in seinem eigenen Inkubator eigene Player hat, der möglicherweise in so einem Markt

pospheriert sondern für solche exotischeren Events, für exotischere Entwicklungen oder Events

gewappnet ist. Das wäre für mich der Hauptgrund. Große Unsicherheit bei allen Vorhersagen

und deswegen auch viel größere Wichtigkeit bei allen Vorhersagen in den Szenarien in der

strategischen Analyse und deshalb auch sehr hohes Betonen der Handlungsfähigkeit, der

Optionen wenn bestimmte exotischere Dinge passieren.

I: Ok. Zurzeit gibt es ja das Phänomen der Globalisierung. Und sehen Sie da spezielle

Auswirkungen auf die strategische Analyse?

A: Ja also erstens werden wir sehen ob die Globalisierung ein unumkehrbarer Trend geworden

ist, das glaub ich zeigt sich. Generell kann man sagen, dass die Globalisierung die Unsicherheit

noch verschärft, weil die Disruption nicht aus der eigenen Umwelt kommen kann, sondern

sagen wir aus dem asiatischen Raum oder wo auch immer. Das heißt das ist wesentlich und

natürlich ist es dann auch wesentlich für Unternehmen sich zu positionieren. Also wenn ich

sage ich mache jetzt eine strategische Analyse, dann spielt die geographische Dimension eine

sehr sehr starke Rolle. Ich glaube fast, dass man in der Analyse die Umkehrrichtung der

Globalisierung auf dem Schirm haben möchte, im Sinne der strategischen Option. Weil wir


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haben auch sehr viele Unternehmen, zum Beispiel die UK Kollegen warten wie sie sich

hinsichtlich des Brexits aufstellen sollen, quasi Umkehrung der Globalisierung das wieder im

Sinne der Szenarioplanung also den Brexit auf dem Zettel zu haben. Genau also auch da die

Globalisierung einerseits die Umkehrrichtung also das Wiederauftreten von Schranken das

bedeutet natürlich, dass sich die strategische Positionierung dadurch sehr ändert. Der

Automobilkonzern ist zum Beispiel sehr glücklich, dass sie jetzt wieder Operations in den USA

haben, das schafft nämlich Optionen. Die globale Dimension wo muss ich präsent sein, das ist

das Wichtige und nicht nur weil die Welt stark globalisiert, sondern weil sie schwer

vorhersehbar ist.

I: Welche wesentlichen Auswirkungen sehen Sie durch dynamische Veränderungen in der

strategischen Analyse?

A: Eigentlich auch da wieder, wie bei technologischen Entwicklungen die schwer zu planen

sind. Globalisierung ist für mich zum Beispiel keine Einbahnstraße sonst würde ich sie auch

nicht Globalisierung nennen. Ich würde es eher nennen die geopolitische Unsicherheit. Also

genauso wie die technologische Disruption bedeutet, dass man bei der strategischen Analyse

noch mehr Unsicherheiten habe, noch mehr auf Events schauen muss wo auch Mainstreams

liegen. Für mich wäre es wichtig, dass man das Thema Globalisierung ersetzt durch

Unsicherheit im Welthandel. Weil das ist genau das was die meisten umtreibt, und dann habe

ich generell die Überschrift, dass die Dinge hochdynamisch sind und im Gegensatz zu

Entwicklungen in der Vergangenheit, die auch dynamisch waren aber einigermaßen

vorhersehbar. Wir kommen jetzt in eine Gegend rein in der wir so viele Interaktionen mit

verschiedenen Technologien haben und so viele Unsicherheiten auf der ökonomischen

Weltwirtschaftsebene haben, dass das Thema Unsicherheit bei der strategischen Analyse viel

viel wichtiger ist als noch vor 2-3 Jahren.

I: Mhm, und Sie erwähnen ja Unsicherheiten und das hört sich für mich nach Herausforderung

an. Sehen Sie vielleicht auch irgendwelche Vorteile, die sich durch diese Veränderungen für

die strategische Analyse ergeben?

A: Es gibt ja das alte Buch von dem, der auch Black Swan geschrieben hat das heißt

„Antifragile“ und es gibt immer Unternehmen, die von Unsicherheit profitieren, die zum

Beispiel sagen ich nehme Risiko und dafür dann eine Prämie zahlen. Und man sieht es bei den

Versicherungskonzernen zum Beispiel, dass die jetzt hingehen und die versuchen wirklich aus

diesem Risiko Kapital zu schlagen und ich versichere jetzt alle möglichen Sachen, die ich

vorher nicht versichert habe. Zum Beispiel Cyberrisiken. Also ein großer Teil der

Unsicherheiten kommt aus der Technologieecke und auch wenn das jetzt schwer vorhersehbar


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ist, gehen jetzt die großen Konzerne schon hin und sagen ja solche Risiken versichere ich. Also

ein unsicheres Klima ist sicher gut für Versicherungen, es ist auch gut für gut diversifizierte

Private Equity oder Venture Capital Fonds. Aus dieser Unsicherheit ergeben sich für die neuen

Player und die ausgerichteten Player sehr viele Chancen. Bei einem Einzelunternehmen wäre

das vielleicht viel zu riskant. Aber wenn ich mir ein Portfolio von solchen Unternehmen kaufe

bin ich gut aufgestellt. Ich würde aber nicht sagen, dass die strategische Analyse dadurch

leichter wird, im Gegenteil sie wird definitiv schwieriger, aber es gibt bestimmte

Geschäftsmodelle wo eine unsichere Situation von Vorteil ist. Für andere, wenn ich langfristig

investiert bin in Assets und nicht so gut reagieren kann auf Veränderungen der Umwelt, dann

ist das nicht so gut. Aber für viele Unternehmensmodelle, also viele der digitalen Modelle sind

ja sehr wissensbasiert und nicht assetbasiert. Solche Modelle können dann natürlich riesige

Chancen sein. Denken Sie an Airbnb die keine einzige Immobilie besitzen versus die großen

Hotelketten, die da massiv in assets investiert sind. Und in Zeiten großer Unsicherheit ist die

Kapitalbindung mit Assets ein großer Nachteil. Während Geschäftsmodelle, die auf einer

Community, einer Technologie oder Wissen basieren sehr flexibel sind.

I: Ja das stimmt! Und sehen Sie vielleicht noch andere bedeutende Herausforderungen, die sich

heutzutage für die strategische Analyse ergeben?

A: Also die großen Unsicherheiten würde ich auf jeden Fall in allen Bereichen nochmal

aufzählen und das ist ganz sicher die Technologie, die geopolitische Situation und zumindest

vom Veränderungspotential sehr sehr stark ist die Demographie. Gerade im digitalen

Geschäftsmodell, dass wir da natürlich Wettbewerb haben mit Playern aus anderen Regionen,

mit Playern die eine andere Marktmacht haben und das ist sicher auch so. Ja also Disruption

ich glaube im Bereich der Five Forces ist sicherlich Disruption und new entrants. Also nicht

zum Beispiel, dass Banken zu Banken im Wettbewerb stehen sondern aber das ist sowas was

da gerade passiert. Und das ist sicherlich wenn sie mit anderen im Wettbewerb stehen oder

externe Versicherungsmaschinen sie komplett obsolet machen. Ich glaube von solchen Trends

von Wettbewerbern außerhalb der Industrie sehr viel geben. Aber wenn Sie sagen eine große

Überschrift ist die Dynamik und Globalisierung, dann sind schon die wesentlichen Dinge dabei.

Allerdings in Summe doch ganz gravierend für die Fähigkeit von Unternehmen sich strategisch

zu positionieren.

I: Und Sie haben ja erwähnt, dass Sie hauptsächlich Szenarienentwicklung anwenden im

Bereich von Strategic Foresight und Ihre Kunden haben auch bestimmt die Veränderung der

strategischen Analyse wahrgenommen. Haben Sie irgendwelche Widerstände von Seiten der

Kunden erlebt wenn Sie jetzt solche neuen Methoden anwenden oder wie ist das in der Praxis?


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A: Also eigentlich garnicht. Die Strategieabteilung, vor allem die der Kunden mit denen ich zu

tun habe, die sind alle sehr dynamisch und sehr weit vorne dran und greifen solche Dinge auch

sehr gerne auf. Also in der Strategieabteilung eher weniger aber wenn ich bestimmte

Konsequenzen ableite, die dann in das Unternehmen zu tragen sind das ist dann häufig

schwierig. Das war aber immer schon schwierig also die Situation ist fast unverändert. Ne also

ich glaube das gerade die Strategieabteilung sehr begierig sind darauf neue Tools aufzunehmen.

In einem Fall von Kunden sieht man dann ein Zusammenwachsen von Strategieabteilungen und

economic research Abteilungen. Das ist leider keine wirklich repräsentative Datenbasis, die ich

habe da wo ich unterwegs bin würde ich sagen sind die Kunden diesen neuen Methoden

gegenüber komplett offen.

I: OK sehr gut. Und eigentlich habe ich jetzt noch eine allerletzte Frage: Sehen Sie für die neuen

Tools und Methoden irgendwelche Nachteile?

A: Also ich glaube, dass die neuen Fassaden deutlich aufwendiger sind, gerade zum Beispiel

die Szenarioanalyse. Also wenn ich den Weg gehe wie skizziert. Also ich schaue mir bestimmte

Entwicklungen an auf die ich vorbereitet sein möchte. Ich schaue mir an welche

Geschäftsbereiche betroffen sind. Ich mache dann sehr viel economic research damit ich gute

Daten habe und befrage Experten und so weiter, mache dann die Szenarioanalyse das ist auch

an sich ein sehr aufwendiger Vorgang und dann gehe ich hinterher und schaue mir für die

Szenarien jeweils an was die adäquaten Handlungsoptionen sind und bilde dann über die

Szenarien hinweg einen Maßnahmenkatalog, der mir hilft egal was passiert gut vorbereitet zu

sein. Das ist natürlich deutlich aufwendiger als zum Beispiel eine SWOT oder sowas in der Art

oder die Five Forces von Porter. Also ich glaube der Vorgang ist deutlich aufwendiger aber ich

glaube das ist dann halt unumgänglich. Ich habe dann wahrscheinlich 3 oder vierfach mehr

Aufwände aber das ist einfach der anderen Ausgangslage geschuldet.

I: Ja das nimmt man dann praktisch in Kauf.

A: Ja genau

I: OK also wir sind jetzt am Ende des Interviews angekommen. Haben Sie noch etwas

abschließendes hinzuzufügen?

A: neine eigentlich nicht.

I: Danke für das interessante Gespräch und für Ihre Zeit.


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Interview Transcript – Pricing AG 27.08.2019

A: Ich fange kurz an Ihnen eine Vorstellung über das Unternehmen zu geben:

I: Na dann fange ich mal mit meinen Fragen an: Wie läuft die Phase der strategischen Analyse

ab wenn Sie diese für Ihre Kunden durchführen?

A: Bei uns ist es so jede Projektphase läuft in enger Zusammenarbeit mit dem Kundenteam.

Das heißt wir haben da auch eine gewisse Kapazität ressourcentechnisch schon mit dem

Kunden vorweg ausgemacht und das ist sehr wichtig damit wir nicht in einer Blackbox ganz

alleine im Büro vor uns hinarbeiten und mit einer Lösung um die Ecke kommen, die der Kunde

nie vorhergesehen hat und die operativ vielleicht auch gar nicht umsetzbar ist. Und genauso ist

es bei der strategischen Analyse wir benutzen da ganz weitschichtige Quellen also auf der einen

Seite interne Interviews auf der anderen Seite sehen wir uns auch die Unternehmensdaten an,

die bestehenden Dokumente zur Strategie, bestehende Marktstudien, Wettbewerbsanalyse und

machen aber auch selbst ein Benchmarking oder auch zum Beispiel Kundenstudien. Jetzt

gerade bei internen Interviews da geht es auch darum mit dem internen Management zu

diskutieren was ist denn aktuell die Wachstumsstrategie, die Preisstrategie, die

Produktstrategie, welche Kennzahl soll denn maximiert werden? Ist es der Umsatz, ist es der

Gewinn? Oder geht es einfach darum sich im Markt zu positionieren und einen Eindruck zu

schaffen. Aber wir sprechen genauso mit Produktmanagement, Vertrieb, wenn es das gibt

Customer Insights Abteilung oder Marketing das ist auch immer sehr spannend und auch

Finance und Operations. Das heißt der Interviewblock ist immer ein sehr wertvoller und da

versucht man dann in 1-2 Wochen einen sehr guten Überblick zu kriegen, in diversen

Abteilungen was sich die Personen die das Unternehmen in letzter Zeit vorangeführt haben in

ihren Entscheidungen auch oft gedacht haben. Dann die internen Datenanalysen,

Dokumentenanalysen, Produktdaten, Kundendaten, Absatzdaten und schauen da natürlich auch

Big data analysis um zu erkennen wo sind die Patterns was erkennt man in den Daten, wo läufts

gut wo läufts nicht so gut. In welchen Produktsegmenten in welchen Kundensegmenten gibt es

noch Potenzial. Und zuletzt eben dieser Blick auch nach außen Benchmarking welche

Wettbewerber gibt’s überhaupt, wer sind die Hauptwettbewerber, wer wächst gerade. Das wird

immer wichtiger heutzutage. Aber auch was haben die dann für ein Angebot, welche Preise,

wie vertreiben die das Angebote, gibt es da Unterschiede oder machen sie es genauso wie beim

Kunden. Im besten Fall wird nach der Analyse auch noch eine Kundenstudie gemacht um zu

erfassen welche Bedürfnisse, welche Werttreiber hat den überhaupt der Kunde.


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I: Gut gut, und mit diesen Informationen wie gehen Sie da vor um diese Vielzahl zu ordnen?

Stützen Sie sich an irgendwelche Modelle oder wie geht man vor um einen Überblick davon zu

bekommen?

A: Oft werden dann gewisse Frameworks verwendet wo man zum Beispiel analysieren möchte

wie gut ist das Unternehmen aufgestellt, wie viel Marktmacht hat es zum Beispiel. Da werden

im Hintergrund verschiedene Treiber bestimmt und diese Treiber ergeben sich durch die

Interviews oder die Datenanalyse. Die Treiber könnten zum Beispiel sein wie viele Kunden

sind in letzter Zeit abgesprungen. Das sieht man in den Daten, hört es aber auch vom Vertrieb

in den Interviews.

I: Und wie lange dauert so ein Prozess der strategischen Analyse im Durchschnitt?

A: der dauert bei uns so 3-4 Wochen bei so klassischen Angebots-gestaltungs-pricing Objekten.

Der kann aber auch länger dauern, wenn das Projekt jetzt rein strategisch ist, und mehr in die

Richtung geht market evaluation, market entry dann kann er auch durchaus länger gehen. Aber

wenn es jetzt wirklich darum geht dass am Ende ein neues Produktangebot mit neuen Preisen

rausfallen soll dann dauert es ca. 3-4 Wochen.

I: OK. Und wie weiß man denn eigentlich wann der Prozess der strategischen Analyse

abgeschlossen ist? Wie weiß man, dass man schon genug Information hat?

A: Bei uns ist es so, dass wir quasi ein gewisses Framework füllen würden wo wir eben alle

Blickwinkel gerne drin hätten also intern und extern. Und sobald wir da sagen können, da gab

es jetzt 10-15 Treiber, wir haben für jeden Treiber mehrere Quellen und das scheint uns stabil

je Treiber dann kann man da mit gutem Gewissen sagen so jetzt fassen wir die Treiber

zusammen und können dann zu einem guten Ergebnis kommen. Damit das natürlich immer

gespiegelt mit dem Unternehmen, da kommen natürlich immer Sachen die einzelnen Personen

intern schon immer klar waren und dann kommen andere Daten aus unseren Untersuchungen,

die neue Erkenntnisse sind aber womit sich das Unternehmen in einer gewissen Form auch

identifizieren kann. Die sie vielleicht auch manchmal überraschen, aber wenn der

Unternehmensvertreter das hört dann ist es so gewisses AHA Erlebnis im Sinne von „das

stimmt eigentlich“. Und wenn man das erreicht hat kann man sagen, wir sind uns von den

Quellen her sicher und das Unternehmen findet sich auch in einer Form wieder und dann kann

man zur nächsten Phase übergehen.

I: Verwenden Sie dann abgesehen von den Interviews und internen Frameworks auch

irgendwelche Modelle aus der Theorie oder eher interne Frameworks auf die man sich immer

stützen kann?


150

A: Beides würde ich sagen. Wir verwenden natürlich auch eine SWOT Analyse, oder schauen

uns an was sind jetzt die großen Trends. Wir arbeiten jetzt nicht die Modelle ab wie Porter’s

Five Forces. Natürlich wenn man sich die Angebotsstruktur anschaut, verwendet man die 4Ps

aber eigentlich mehr arbeiten wir mit unseren eigenen Modellen. Also zum Beispiel die

Kombination mit den Treibern, die die Driving Power oder die Monetärisierungs Power

darstellen oder die zeigen was ist den Kunden wichtig und wie sieht unsere Performance im

Wettbewerb aus.

I: Verwenden sie irgendwelche speziellen Technologien in dem Prozess?

A: Es ist so wir haben Analysetools für die Big Data Bereiche also da geht es natürlich bei

kleineren Daten schon mit Excel aber bei größeren geht es weiter wie SQL Datenbasis, Data,

Tableu (?) umgekehrt aber haben wir unsere eigenen apps. Wir haben intern ein Team das sich

mit den digital solutions beschäftigt und uns Tools baut die wir in den Projekten anwenden

können und auch mit dem Kunden durchspielen können.

I: Ihre Vorgehensweise hört sich für mich sehr digital an. Finden Sie, dass vor 10 Jahren anders

vorgegangen worden ist in der Strategischen Analyse verglichen zu heute?

A: Ja also vor 10 Jahren war ich noch nicht im Unternehmen, aber was ich in den letzten Jahren

gesehen habe ist es so, dass früher einfach viele Hilfsmittel lokal in zb Excel templates gelaufen

sind und jetzt wird alles in die Cloud gebracht sodass man über die App sofort und zeitnah alle

Ergebnisse auswerten kann und das alles ein bisschen dynamischer geht und auch effizienter

funktioniert.

I: Ja ich verstehe! Da es in meiner Masterarbeit auch um Globalisierung geht wie sehen Sie die

Auswirkungen dieses Phänomens auf die strategische Analyse?

A: Also bei uns ist es rein von der Umsatz-Brille wenn man sich anschauen kann wenn das

Unternehmen in mehreren Ländern tätig ist welche Positionierung gibt es je Land, welche

Produkte gibt es pro Land, welche Marken gibt es je Land wenn das unterschiedlich ist. Aber

auch dann zu dieser Konsolidierung zu kommen und zu sagen welche Länder werden vom

Unternehmen her ähnlich bearbeitet welche werden unterschiedlich bearbeitet. Aber dann auch

extern welche Wettbewerber gibt’s in mehreren Ländern, welche konzentrieren sich nur auf ein

Land. Wie sind die Kundenbedürfnisse in den verschiedenen Ländern also es kann ja sein für

dasselbe Produkt haben die Kunden komplett unterschiedliche Bedürfnisse, weil es zum

Beispiel in Deutschland und Österreich wird Datensicherheit sehr hoch geschrieben, in anderen

Ländern ist das vielleicht nicht so wichtig. Und dann natürlich auch was sind die Kunden bereit

dafür zu zahlen also es kann ja sein, dass man das gleiche Produkt hat aber es kann sein, dass

es in gewissen Ländern aus Kundensicht einfach viel mehr wert ist als in einem anderen Land.


151

Und das ist natürlich aus Sicht der Globalisierung natürlich sehr interessant, wenn man so ein

international aufgestelltes Unternehmen hat, das gewachsen ist oder wachsen möchte und das

natürlich auch die Möglichkeit dazu hat. Aber klar auf der anderen Seite natürlich auch die

Herausforderung, dass der Wettbewerb jederzeit in vielen Ländern ohne große Barrieren und

natürlich auch durch die Online Welt leichter eintreten kann.

I: Ja gut, und wie sehen Sie die Auswirkungen von dynamischen Veränderungen auf die


A: Also generell nur auf die strategische Analyse bezogen ist es natürlich so, dass man sich

dann immer mehr damit befassen muss gibt es jetzt neue Mitbewerber, gibt es jetzt neue

Kundenschichten die jetzt vielleicht auch kurzweilig entstanden sind und eigentlich müsste das

Unternehmen auch nach dem Projekt ein konstantes Benchmarking machen und die

Marktforschung damit das Unternehmen den Wandel nicht verschläft und die Möglichkeiten

aufdeckt. Also das ist nicht nur in unseren Bereichen der strategischen Analyse der Fall,

sondern auch generell. Also ist das Produktportfolio auch up to date oder das wir dann

reinschauen und sagen „ok der Markt entwickelt sich eher in diese Produktnische oder es gibt

jetzt ein neues Preismodell gerade bei uns im Online Markt. Früher wurde Software, Sie können

sich wahrscheinlich erinnern Anti-Viren Programme wurden auf CD-Rom oder auf Lizenz

verkauft. Jetzt läuft das alles über Abo und SAS also wenn man das alles verschläft ist das

natürlich höchst ungünstig, das heißt immer so am Ball der Zeit zu bleiben also wie funktioniert

die Monetisierung von meinem Produkt, wie differenziere ich mich überhaupt noch, das ist

dann auch eine Digitalisierungsstrategie einfach nicht verschlafen und dass ich noch bei der

ersten Gruppe bin die mich in die Richtung zieht.

I: Mhm und sehen Sie, dass sich dadurch Vorteile ergeben haben für die strategische Analyse?

Also dass alles schnelllebiger ist?

A: Ich glaube generell ist der Anspruch dann gewachsen, dass man jetzt auch dynamische

Tools braucht und dadurch wurde auch alles viel effizienter. Also zum Beispiel gibt es das nicht

mehr, dass eine Person das Benchmarking händisch macht, sondern da gibt es jetzt auch schon

Online Tools dafür, die das dann automatisiert machen und wo auch weniger Fleißarbeit

dahinter steckt. Und man da durch den Anspruch und die Notwendigkeit gesehen hat, dass man

angepasste Tools haben muss. Genauso wie wir es jetzt haben intern mit den Analyse Apps.

I: Ja und warum hat man sich bei Ihnen auf Apps spezialisiert? Warum nicht eine einfache

Cloud die über den Computer zugegriffen werden kann?

A: Ja also gerade wenn man mit dem Kunden zusammenarbeitet und viele Kunden gerade auch

in dem Bereich Vertrieb haben auch immer ein Tablet bei sich und dann ist das auch natürlich


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viel praktisch wenn sie das am Handy oder am Tablet durchspielen können oder uns ihren Input

geben können zu verschiedenen Performance Indikationen und Treibern für den Kunden. Das

ist also aus usability und convenience Sicht auch entstanden.

I: Ja das hört sich auf jeden Fall sehr nützlich an! Sehen Sie noch irgendwelche anderen

bedeutenden Herausforderungen, die sich heutzutage für die strategische Analyse ergeben?

A: Ich glaube, das hat jetzt auch ein bisschen mit Globalisierung zu tun, aber dadurch, dass man

sich bei der strategischen Analyse damit befassen muss, dass es unterschiedliche Länder,

Planungsgesellschaften, Sprachbarrieren, das Daten in unterschiedlichen Formaten sind. Da ist

es immer eine große Herausforderung, dass man die lokalen Gesellschaften die Landesexperten

miteinbezieht, weil die Daten am Ende nicht alles erzählen können. Deswegen ist es auch

immer sehr wichtig nicht nur über die Zentrale zu kommen, sondern auch mit den

Landesexperten zu sprechen. Und das ist natürlich innerhalb der Projektzeit, die auch immer

sehr begrenzt ist, damit die Kunden auch schnell eine effiziente Lösung bekommen, natürlich

eine Herausforderung wie man das abwickelt. Entweder mein reist hin, macht es über Telefon

oder eben durch Videokonferenz. Aber das ist sicher eine Herausforderung, weil alle Personen,

alle Daten, alle Sprachen auf den gleichen Nenner zu bringen.

I: Ja ganz bestimmt das glaube ich Ihnen. Sie haben ja schon am Anfang erwähnt, dass Sie

diverse Analyse Tools verwenden. Haben Sie da auch solche mit denen Sie praktisch in die

Zukunft blicken also im Kontext von Strategic Foresight?

A: Ja genau, also wir machen das dann meistens in der letzten Projektphase, dass man sich dann

mit dem Kunden anschaut was sind jetzt die möglichen Wettbewerbsszenarien. Also zum

Beispiel, wenn wir jetzt das mit dem Produkt oder dem Preis machen, wie könnte der

Wettbewerb da reagieren, welche Möglichkeiten gibt’s. Oder das Portfolio wird umstrukturiert

und man überlegt sich dann, dass man in Zukunft 5 Kernprodukte hat oder 10 und das ist jetzt

der USP von ihrem Produkt. Oder unterschiedliche Preisszenarien oder Migrationsszenarien.

Und dann schaut man sich natürlich an was sind jetzt die KPIs hinter den Szenarien und ist

unser Lösungsvorschlag egal welches Szenario, noch immer stabil oder besser als der Status

quo weil das muss natürlich gegeben sein. Wenn ein gewisses Szenario wahrscheinlich ist oder

wenn es nur 50% Wahrscheinlichkeit hat, dass man trotzdem hinterher bessergestellt ist als zum

status quo und deswegen macht das dann bei uns so den iterativen Abschluss in der

Lösungsentwicklung.

I: Haben Sie vielleicht schon mal erlebt, wenn Sie diese innovativen Tools angewendet haben,

dass es da Widerstände gab von Seiten der Kunden?


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A: Ja ich glaube es ist immer eine Herausforderung, dass man mit dem Kunden gemeinsam die

Denkweise etabliert und dass man sagt „ja wir glauben zu 80 oder 90% wird es so ausgehen“

aber lasst uns einmal gemeinsam durchdenken im worst case was da passieren könnte oder im

wirklich allerbesten case was könnte da passieren. Ich glaube das ist menschlich dass man ein

bestimmtes Szenario für sehr wahrscheinlich hält und sich dann garnicht mehr damit

beschäftigen will weil man so überzeugt ist. Aber das gute ist wenn man im Projekt schon

vorgebaut hat und eine gute Kundenbeziehung hat dann klappt das meistens auch, dass man

dann gemeinsam durchdenkt welche die 3 möglichsten Szenarien sind und von den 3

Expertenschätzungen dann am Ende, was sicher auch eine Herausforderung ist, welche

Wahrscheinlichkeit misst man jedem Szenario zu.

I: Ich verstehe. Was ich aus der Theorie herauslesen konnte ist dass Strategic Foresight immer

mehr verwendet wird. Was sind ihrer Meinung nach die Wesentlichen Vor- und Nachteile

dieser Anwendung?

A: Klarer Nachteil ist, dass da immer eine gewisse Unsicherheit dazukommt und am Ende

müssen sich dann immer interne und externe Experten zusammensetzen und sich fragen ob sie

daran glauben und inwiefern ist das eine Szenario wahrscheinlicher als das andere oder was

muss gegeben sein damit das wahrscheinlicher ist. Das kann zb sein dass der Wettbewerb stabil

sein muss oder sich Marktbarrieren nicht erhöhen dürfen und das hat natürlich immer eine

gewisse Unsicherheit aber dafür gibt es auch per se keine Lösung. Auf der positiven Seite ist

es natürlich immer wünschenswert, wenn man sich gedankentechnisch mal hineinversetzt was

könnte denn in der Zukunft passieren und da so einen high level Anhaltspunkt und Plan auch

hat.

I: OK und wie kann man sich das jetzt in der Praxis vorstellen, wenn man für ein Szenario eine

hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit gesetzt hat und dieses jetzt nicht eintritt, was passiert dann?

A: Genau, zum Beispiel wenn wir ein gewisses Angebots-Portfolio entwickelt haben mit einer

gewissen Preissetzung und dann wird erwartet, wenn man Markführer im Markt ist, dass der

Preis nachzieht. Wenn das in einer gewissen Zeit nicht passiert dann kann man statt noch höher

mit den Preisen gehen oder ein noch teureres Produkt auf den Markt bringen, mal den Preis

stabil halten. Oder man macht eine einmonatige Aktion oder solche Dinge. Also es gibt immer

for und back Lösungen und wenn was nicht eintritt an das wir mit 80%iger Wahrscheinlichkeit

geglaubt haben was sind dann die Optionen, die wir haben damit unser Kunde auch schnell

reagieren kann. Bei der Umsetzung ist es einfach zeitlich nicht drinnen, dass man sagt man

macht jetzt ein 3-Monatsprojekt und was jetzt. Man muss vorher vorgedacht haben.

I: OK und wie viele Optionen überlegt man sich da so im Durchschnitt?


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A: Das kommt ganz auf das Projekt an also, wenn wir Szenarien ganz durchspielen dann ist es

meistens so dass wir sehr sehr viele durchspielen und am Ende mit dem Kunden so zwischen 3

und 5 besprechen. Da sind aber im Vorfeld schon einige rausgefallen, weil man gesagt hat die

sind weniger wahrscheinlich oder die Reaktion wäre ähnlich wie in einem von den 3-5.

I: Gut, dann kommt jetzt eigentlich noch eine letzte Frage: nämlich verwenden Sie im Kontext

der Strategic Foresight auch noch andere Tools abgesehen von der Szenarienentwicklung?

A: Ich glaube das ist immer bisschen Projektabhängig. Szenarien werden immer gemacht, was

wir auch oft machen ist qualitativ durchzuspielen was wären die Anwendungsfälle mit den

Kunden. Und theoretisch kann man jetzt ein Portfolio für Kundengruppe A, B oder C

verwenden, dass man so ein bisschen use-case orientiert dann denkt. Das kann dann sein, dass

wir uns für Kundengruppe A entschieden haben aber das funktioniert leider garnicht weil da

ein neuer Wettbewerber in den Markt gekommen ist und der hat diese Kundengruppe per social

media sehr gut bespielt, dass man dann natürlich auf einen andere use-case umschwenken zu

können.

I: Sehr gut, na eigentlich bin ich am Ende von meinen Fragen haben Sie vielleicht noch etwas

hinzuzufügen was ich noch nicht gefragt habe?

A: Nein also wir haben glaube ich sehr viel besprochen, Sie haben wahrscheinlich gemerkt dass

das was die strategische Analyse am meisten beeinflusst ist die Digitalisierung und die

Auswirkung die die Digitalisierung hat auf neue Businessmodelle und neue Monetisierung von

Produkten.

I: OK, super vielen Dank nochmal für das Interview und das interessante Gespräch!

Interview Transcript– Vision AG 24.09.2019

I: Vielen Dank, dass Sie sich Zeit genommen haben für das Interview! Ich fange gleich mal mit

der ersten Frage an und zwar: Wie läuft die Phase der Strategischen Analyse ab, wenn Sie diese

für Ihre Kunden durchführen?

A: Also da gibt es wesentliche Schritte, die da zu begleichen sind. Man hat zuerst eine

Situationsaufnahme, dann hat man eine mit Industrie, Markttrend angereicherte Visionsphase

und dann hat man eine wertbasierte Evaluierung von möglichen Maßnahmen. Das sind so die

drei großen Schritte. Was am Ende rauskommt ist immer eine Art von Sinnbild und eine

zeitliche Einordnung der Maßnahmen auf einer Roadmap.

I: OK und wie lange würden Sie sagen dauert so ein Prozess der Strategischen Analyse im

Durchschnitt?

A: Das kommt auf die Komplexität des Unternehmens an, von vier Wochen bis 12 Wochen.


155

I: Mhm und was würden Sie sagen, welcher dieser 3 vorher genannten Schritte ist am

intensivsten?

A: Ich würde sagen die Bewertung der Maßnahmen

I: OK und welche Instrumente oder Methoden verwenden Sie im Zuge der strategischen

Analyse?

A: Also auf die Methoden bezogen: es gibt pattern asset, die vor allem für die

Maßnahmengenerierung verwendet wird. Also zum Beispiel youstated (?) für die gewisse

Industrie und das Thema, beziehungsweise auch technische Hilfsmittel zur Analyse, also wie

man schnell Daten auswerten kann, so analytics basiert etc.

I: Und sehen Sie vielleicht eine Veränderung, die stattgefunden hat durch die besagten

Faktoren. Also zb Methoden die früher angewendet worden sind und jetzt nicht mehr?

A: Ja das ist ein schleichender Prozess. Also was wir an Methoden anwenden, was sich auf

jeden Fall verändert hat. Wir gehen im Prinzip aus jeder Strategiephase mit prototypischen

Beispielen raus. Das heißt alles was gemacht wird, wird in einer Art Prototypmodell dargestellt,

um einfach die Maßnahmen oder die Möglichkeiten der Maßnahmen zeigbar zu machen. Das

ist ein starker Punkt. Auch die Art und Weise wie man Beispiele darstellt, hat sich massiv

geändert, weil die Maßnahmen, die man vorschlägt, technisch komplexer werden. Das heißt

früher hat man sie noch auf Powerpoint dargestellt. Mittlerweile muss man was zum Angreifen

mitbringen oder die Personen vor Ort kennen wo das erlebbar ist damit das Verständnis dafür

wächst.

I: Und zum Beispiel, wenn wir jetzt Modelle aus der Theorie nehmen, die man von früher kennt,

zb Porter’s Five Forces usw. werden die überhaupt noch angewendet in der Praxis?

A: Die werden angewendet in der Praxis, auf jeden Fall. Aber während wir vor 10 Jahren eins

herangezogen haben. Also das war das Modell das, das am besten gepasst hat und das die

Grundlage war oder das quasi der Schwerpunkt war ist jetzt ein Hilfsmittel, um einen gewissen

Aspekt zu analysieren.

I: Und sehen Sie generell, dass sich die Anwendung der strategischen Analyse in den letzten

10 Jahren geändert hat?

A: Ja also ich glaube, dass sich die strategischen Optionen beziehungsweise die Vielfältigkeit

extrem erhöht hat und dadurch die Strategie komplexer geworden ist, während man früher 2-3

Optionen hatte und die waren eh klar am Tisch und man eine finanzielle Grundlage hatte.

Heutzutage ist viel mehr Unsicherheit drinnen, weil man nicht weiß wie entwickelt sich die

Industrie in den nächsten 3-5 Jahren. Und das ist auch ein Punkt zu den signifikant kürzeren

Zyklen in der Strategieentwicklung. Also früher war ein 5-Jahreszyklus ganz normal. Ich habe


156

Kunden mittlerweile, die 2 oder 3 Jahreszyklen machen und manche die sogar in einem

Halbjahreszyklus ihre Strategie reviewen.

I: Und hängt das dann von der Industrie ab wie lange so ein Zyklus dauert?

A: Ja genau mit der Volatilität in der Industrie hängt das zusammen.

I: OK gut, und wie Sie wahrscheinlich schon herauslesen konnten, beschäftige ich mich in

meiner Masterarbeit sehr mit dem Thema Globalisierung. Sehen Sie irgendwelche

Auswirkungen, die auf die strategische Analyse gefallen sind?

A: Natürlich, es muss eine Auswirkung haben, weil die Globalisierung wie wir Unternehmen

leiten und lenken verändert hat. Das heißt die Competition hat sich von einer DACH Region

auf einen Globalen Markt gehoben. Im Zuge der Globalisierung ist auch der Markt viel größer

geworden und die Konkurrenz. Wir haben auch eine Vertikalisierung gesehen zwischen den

Industrien. Das hat auch die Komplexität massiv erhöht. Und natürlich, dass meine Strategie

nicht mehr passt wenn es einen neuen Player gibt der in meine Industrie hineingeht.

I: Ich verstehe, na das hört sich für mich so an als wären viele Herausforderungen entstanden

durch die Globalisierung. Sehen Sie vielleicht auch irgendwelche Vorteile, die entstanden sind?

A: Also jetzt vom doing her, die Märkte sind vergleichbarer geworden. Das heißt während ein

Beispiel aus China früher ganz nett war, aber der chinesische Markt doch signifikant anders ist

als der Österreichische, wird heutzutage das kein Unternehmen in Richtung eine Milliarde

Umsatz sagen der chinesische Markt ist nicht relevant für mich, weil entweder die chinesischen

Player in den Markt kommen wollen oder man selber in den Markt hineingehen möchte. Das

bedeutet natürlich, dass ich in meiner Research als Strategieberater oder als Stratege muss ich

viel gründlicher sein und globaler aufgestellt sein. Hier sind natürlich globale Netzwerke viel

wichtiger als je zuvor. Weil wenn ich den chinesischen Markt nicht kenne und kaum ein Mensch

kennt alle Märkte, die relevant sind dann kann ich auch keine Empfehlung abgeben dazu und

keine gleichwertige Research machen.

I: Und wie geht man da an dieses Ziel heran, dass man den chinesischen Markt analysieren

möchte?

A: Netzwerk. Also wir haben in unserem Unternehmen ca. 490.000 Leute auf der ganzen Welt.

Wir haben Kolleginnnen und Kollegen in China, dann gibt es einen Anruf wir brauchen Daten

aus dem chinesischen Markt. Ich hatte nicht unlängst ein Projekt mit einem Automobilhersteller

und dann wird der chinesische Markt miteinbezogen

I: OK ich verstehe! Ein weiteres Thema in meiner Masterarbeit sind ja dynamische

Veränderungen. Sehen Sie da Auswirkungen auf die strategische Analyse?

A: Also zwei Punkte ganz klar. Erstens Technologien kommen viel schneller. Wir leben alle in


157

einer Entwicklung wo wir versuchen den neuen Technologien immer einen Schritt voraus zu

sein, aber das ist extrem schwierig. Und auf der anderen Seite durch die technologischen

Veränderungen wird das Kartenfeld viel schneller neu gemischt und dadurch entsteht eine

Volatilität im Markt und in Industrien, die wesentlich schnelleren Handlungen bedürfen. Und

das ist vorrangig durch die rasche technologische Entwicklung. Wenn ich bei der neuesten

Technologie mitgeschwommen bin und sie zu meinem Vorteil genutzt habe, kann es sein, dass

ich bei der nächsten Technologie nicht dabei bin. Da hilft es, wenn man strukturiert aufgestellt

ist, wenn man einen bestimmten Prozess im Unternehmen für Scouting, Innovation, etc. um

hier dabei zu sein. Was natürlich Teil einer jeden Strategieabteilung mittlerweile ist.

I: Und sehen Sie dabei vielleicht auch irgendwelche Vorteile, die sich für die strategische

Analyse ergeben?

A: Also Vorteile in der Analyse…ich überlege gerade ob es etwas einfacher macht in der

Analyse. Ich würde sagen, es macht nicht unbedingt etwas einfacher, es macht es eher

komplexer und es macht es schnelllebiger. Also wenn ich jetzt böse bin, die Technologie

verändert sich so schnell, wenn man einen Fehler in der Strategie macht kann man es fast nicht

nachvollziehen, denn es kann an der schnellen Veränderung in der Industrie liegen und

vielleicht kann man das ein bisschen kaschieren. Wie gesagt früher hat es 15 Jahre gedauert bis

eine Strategie gewirkt hat, das war auch nicht sehr transparent. Insofern ist das das Freud und

Leid der Strategie, dass man den Impact nicht sofort sieht und auch die Fehler nicht sofort sieht.

Wobei ich glaube, dass der Zyklus schneller geworden ist und dass auch alles transparenter

geworden ist, sonst funktioniert das nicht. Vor allem durch das viele prototypisieren und schnell

ausprobieren hat das natürlich auf viel verändert.

I: OK und sehen Sie vielleicht noch irgendwelche anderen bedeutenden Herausforderungen,

die sich für die strategische Analyse ergeben?

A: Also ich würde sagen auf jeden Fall Technologie und alles was damit einhergeht. Die

Vertikalisierung habe ich schon erwähnt, dass die Industrien ineinander wachsen und

verschmelzen. Das große Visionsbild für die Singularity, die sich daraus beruft, dass eben alles

ein System ist. Und eigentlich die versteckte Vertikalisierung, die Vollendung der

Vertikalisierung und das alles eine Industrie ist, die ineinandergreift oder ein System ist, das

alles bedient, weil wir sowieso nur Plattformen haben. Und das ist wahrscheinlich dieses

potentielle Szenario, wenn alle Industrien ineinandergreifen.

I: Und Sie haben ja vorher schon erwähnt, dass bei Ihnen im Unternehmen diskutiert wird was

in der Zukunft passiert. Das heißt sie wenden Methoden von Strategic Foresight in Ihrem

Unternehmen an. Und wie gehen Sie da üblicherweise vor?


158

A: Also es ist natürlich ein laufender Prozess. Das ist sehr stark Industriefokussiert und in

Kombination Technologie-lastig. Das heißt es wird permanent für verschieden Industrien,

verschieden Zukunftsszenarien durchgedacht und die technologischen Veränderungen darin

berücksichtigt. Und das passiert laufend. Das ist auch nichts was wir anders bezogen machen,

sondern kontinuierlich, weil wir genug Unternehmen haben, mit denen wir permanent darüber

sprechen.

I: Und welche Instrumente oder Methoden verwenden Sie da häufig? Sie haben ja schon

roadmaps erwähnt.

A: Das Thema Innovationscouting wird bei uns natürlich sehr großgeschrieben und das Thema

Industrieanalyse also Veränderungen in der Industrie. Und dann auch mögliche Veränderungen

durch neue Technologien zu prognostizieren.

I: Und können Sie mir vielleicht sagen seit wann strategic Foresight in Ihrem Unternehmen

angewendet wird?

A: Also ich bin seit 13 Jahren in der Beratung, ich kann mich jetzt nicht erinnern, dass wir es

irgendwann nicht angewendet haben. Das ist wahrscheinlich auch ein Asset der

Strategieberatung, um das zu machen. Aber zu uns kommen Unternehmen und sagen, wie wird

sich denn unsere Industrie verändern und erwarten sich auch eigentlich diese Aussage von uns.

Und dazu haben Sie einen Apparat und so weiter.

I: Und finden Sie dann zum Beispiel das Strategic Foresight jetzt vielleicht noch wichtiger

geworden ist, durch diese Veränderungen in der Umwelt?

A: Die Schnelllebigkeit hat sich geändert, weil natürlich auch Technologien jetzt viel schneller

kommen und dadurch auch sich das strategic Foresighting verändert. Wir haben jedes Jahr eine

Techvision, die wir herausbringen eine Breite, die dann auf Industrien heruntergebrochen wird

und das wird im Jahresrythmus gemacht. Dadurch dass wir das im Jahresrythmus sehen ist für

alle Industrien massiv auf technische Veränderung eine Neuausrichtung bedeutend in den

meisten Fällen.

I: OK also eigentlich bin ich jetzt schon fast am Ende meines Interviews. Können Sie mir

vielleicht zum Abschluss noch Vorteile von strategic Foresight nennen?

A: Also die Vorteile sind natürlich, dass es dann einen Startpunkt gibt in der Denkrichtung. Das

heißt ich weiß wo ich ansetzen muss, wo ich nach Hebeln suchen muss. Das verkürzt natürlich

den initialen Visioning Prozess. Das wäre der massive Vorteil. Ein Nachteil im Foresighting

also angewandt sehe ich jetzt keinen Nachteil. Könnte ich mir einen Nachteil vorstellen, wenn

man sich zu sehr auf das Foresighting stützt, dann könnte es natürlich sein, dass man nicht

genau genug ins Unternehmen schaut, sondern einen Stereotyp anwendet und die Feinheiten


159

nicht berücksichtigt. Gerade das hätte ich in der Praxis noch nicht als Problem identifiziert

gehabt

I: OK und haben Sie vielleicht noch irgendetwas zu dem Thema hinzuzufügen das wir jetzt die

letzte halbe Stunde besprochen haben?

A: Also eine der wesentlichen Veränderungen, die ich erlebt habe in den letzten 5 Jahren, ist

dass die Strategiephasen signifikant kürzer werden und zusammenfassend dass sie immer mit

einem Hands-on Ergebnis und idealerweise mit einem MBB Prototyping testing an

Benutzergruppen und das kann sein interne User, Kundengruppen mit Beispielen enden. Also

die großen Beispiele man braucht ein neues Geschäftsmodell, einfach anskizzieren und machen

innerhalb weniger Wochen. Also dass es kein Jahresprojekt wird so okay jetzt überlegen wir

uns ein halbes Jahr die Strategie und dann eineinhalb Jahre bauen wir ein Produkt und dann

gehen wir in einen Markt und dadurch ist die puristische Strategiearbeit aus meiner Sicht am

Auflösen und es ist immer stärker eine integrierte Arbeit mit Umsetzung und das kommt viel

viel stärker. Dazu hat der ganze Innovationsbereich beigetragen, beziehungsweise die schnelle

Reaktionszeit, die man braucht, um auf Technologien zu reagieren und schnell in den Markt zu

bringen.

I: OK sehr gut dann sage ich schon mal danke für das Gespräch!

A: Was ich noch hinzufügen möchte: wichtig bei dem ganzen Prozess ist zahlenbasiert zu

arbeiten. Ja also es geht nicht nur um Experimente machen, sondern das muss immer eine

wertbasierte Betrachtung sein. Es haben sich ja einige neue Player im Strategiebereich

hineingespielt, die sehr viel auf kreativ und Innovation setzen. Was wir hier sehen ist das viele

von diesen Unternehmen finanziell scheitern. Das heißt es ist extrem wichtig, obwohl man in

kurzen Zyklen arbeitet, obwohl man Innovation in den Mittelpunkt stellt, dass man massiv

wertgetrieben arbeitet. Unternehmen sind finanzgetrieben und wenn ich das nicht mehr als mein

Kernfokus habe, und einen klaren KPI habe, dann werde ich den KPI nicht erfüllen und das

bedeutet für die meisten Unternehmen dann Untergang.

I: Das ist auf jeden Fall wichtig zu erwähnen! Na, dann danke nochmal, Sie haben mir sehr

geholfen!

A: Gerne!


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Farbe Obercode Code Codings aller Dokumente Codings aktivierter Dokumente Autor Erstellt am● Challenge Change 16 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:26:23

● Strategic analysis process 25 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:26:46

● Challenge Consumer 12 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:27:34

● Relevance 6 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:27:58

● Change in Time Before 23 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:29:00

● Globalization 18 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:31:23

● Strategic analysis process Sources 12 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:32:55

● Dynamism 15 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:33:13

● Challenge Digitalization 27 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:33:37

● Strategic analysis process Strategic Foresight 32 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:36:00

● Change in Time Today 24 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:40:07

● Dynamism Uncertainty 10 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:40:43

● Strategic analysis process Models and Methods 38 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:41:16

● Dynamism Complexity 5 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:42:33

● Challenge 27 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 17:53:24

● Consulting 9 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 18:08:25

● Consulting Client 13 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 18:09:12

● Challenge Competitors 13 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 18:44:14

● Strategic analysis process Triggerpoints 7 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 18:45:37

● Consulting Internal 13 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 18:58:53

● Challenge\Digitalization Agility 14 0 nataliabaczyk 15.09.19 19:03:32

● Opportunities 13 0 nataliabaczyk 16.09.19 09:49:18

● Change in Time 0 0 nataliabaczyk 16.09.19 12:02:35

● Opportunities Digitalization 29 0 nataliabaczyk 16.09.19 12:03:43

● Dynamism Volatility 9 0 nataliabaczyk 26.09.19 10:51:13

● Globalization Network 2 0 nataliabaczyk 26.09.19 10:56:17

● Challenge\Digitalization Reaction 6 0 nataliabaczyk 26.09.19 21:34:52

Dokumentgruppe Dokumentname Erstellt am Anzahl Codings Anzahl Memos Autor Models and Methods Consumer AG 15.09.19 14:28:44 70 0 nataliabaczyk 5 Innovation AG 15.09.19 14:28:51 44 0 nataliabaczyk 7 Financial AG 15.09.19 14:28:59 67 0 nataliabaczyk 3 Technology AG 15.09.19 14:29:07 71 0 nataliabaczyk 5 Digital AG 15.09.19 14:29:15 40 0 nataliabaczyk 7 Pricing AG 15.09.19 14:28:03 67 0 nataliabaczyk 7 Vision AG 26.09.19 09:50:15 59 0 nataliabaczyk 4

Appendix II

Transcribed interviews with codes

Coding variables

strategic analysis in a supervisor

Documents