strategic analysis of the european market for variable valvetrain technologies
TRANSCRIPT
Strategic Analysis of the European Market for Variable Valvetrain Technologies
About About 90% Gasoline and 10% Diesel 90% Gasoline and 10% Diesel Engines Engines to to Feature Feature VVariable ariable VValvetrainalvetrain by 2018by 2018
Priyank Aggarwal, Research AnalystPriyank Aggarwal, Research Analyst
Automotive & Transportation
28 June 2012
© 2012 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of
Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
Today’s Presenter: Priyank Aggarwal
Functional Expertise
� Market Research and Consulting Automotive & Transportation
� Automotive Design and Development.
� Experience in telecom network setup, team coordination and resource management.
Industry Expertise
� Exposure to Global Trends in Automotive Industry.
� Understanding synergies of existing and upcoming technologies in powertrain market.
What I bring to the Team
• Knowledge of leading Automotive Technologies and Understanding of the market dynamics.
Priyank AggarwalResearch Analyst, Automotive &
2
Career Highlights
� One and half years experience in Market Research, Forecasting, Market Entry Strategy and Consulting.
� Before Frost & Sullivan experience in Telecom Network Setup and Optimization. Business Process management, Team Development and training at Bank of America Continuum Solutions Limited (BACS). Adaptation of greener technologies at BACS and best practices for higher process efficiency.
Education
� M.S., Automotive Engineering, Kingston University, London, U.K.
� B.E., Electronics & Communication, SEAS, M.D.U., India.
� H.N.D., Electrical & Electronics Engineering, Edexcel, U.K.
Automotive &Transportation,GIC, Europe.
Frost & Sullivan GlobalChennai, India
Focus Points
Section
Key Takeaway Facts
Valvetrain Market Breakdown
Valvetrain Market Trends
European Variable Valvetrain Market Snapshot
Market Drivers
3
Market Drivers
Market Challenges
VVT Market—Market Breakdown by OEMs
Variable Valvetrain Market Opportunity
Key Conclusions
Valvetrain Technology Roadmap
Appendix
Key Takeaway Facts
Gasoline VVT penetration by end of 2011 was close to 73%
Diesel VVT penetration expected to be close to 2.5% by 2012
In 2008, over 42 % of the vehicles sales in Europe were under 140gm/km of CO2 band, which increased close to 59% by 2010.
11
22
4
140gm/km of CO2 band, which increased close to 59% by 2010.
Over 75 percent vehicles sold by 2018 to undercut this threshold
VVT market would grow with the demand of cost effective emission reduction technologies with a strong focus on Rightsizing and Downsizing.
33
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
21%
20%
35%
22%2%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Valvetrain Market BreakdownThe Variable Valvetrain Market is valued at close to €1.2 billion and was divided among the following gasoline valvetrain types as shown below
25%
50%
75%
100%
VVT Market: Percent of production by Gasoline
VVT Type, Europe, 2011, 2018
14%
20%
18%
48%
20112011 20182018
5
21%
0%Camphasing Elec.Mech.+Camph. Elec.Hydr.+Camph. Electric Act.+Camph. Cam-Less Act.
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
0%
2011 Market
Revenues
€1.20 -
1.24 B
2011 Market
Units/Volume
6.8 M
Market Size by
2018
€ 1.90 -
1.94 B
2010-11 Market
Growth Rate
9.2%
CAGR
(Gasoline VVT)
6-7%
(CAGR 2011-18)
Key Market Trends
1. Only 73% in a production of 9.6 million gasoline vehicles (2011)
2. Valvetrain market is growing consistently with demand of engine
Downsizing technologies
3. The valvetrain market has shifted from camphasing to VVA
CurrentCurrent
6
1. Valvetrain market to experience over 6-7 % CAGR
2. Electric and Hydraulic actuation systems to be the market norm
3. Seamless integration of VVT with Downsizing and Rightsizing
techniques
FutureFuture
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
European Valvetrain Market Snapshot
VVT Market: Gasoline Engine Penetration Europe,
2011 and 2018
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Scenario
Gasoline Production
VVT Penetration
73%
87-89%
2011 2018
9.6M
12.6M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Scenario
Diesel Production
VVT Penetration2.4%10-12%
8.4M
10.6M
2012 2018
CAGR 6-7%
VVT Market: Diesel Engine Penetration Europe,
2012 and 2018
CAGR19-21%
7
VVT System Price
Range (Euros)
ScenarioScenario
2011 2018 Scenario2012 2018
VVT Market: Gasoline VVT Pricing Range Europe, 2011
Entry Level Mid Level High End
100 – 120
2 and 3
Cylinder engine
120 – 180
4 and 5
Cylinder engine
180 – 240
6 and 8
Cylinder engine
Note : The above is the market average selling price (vendor ���� OEM) for the
Gasoline Valvetrain system for naturally aspirated engines
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Market Drivers
Key Market Drivers
1. ACEA (2015, 2020) and Euro VI, VII emissions emphasising on lower emissions and higher fuel economy.
2. 8 to 10 percent reduction in CO2, with 10 to 12 percent improvement in fuel
8
2. 8 to 10 percent reduction in CO2, with 10 to 12 percent improvement in fuel economy, VVT systems cost between an attractive €20 to €30 gm/km of CO2
reduction.
3. In mid to long term, VVT Technology has the potential to be implemented in
diesels engines to reduce after treatment costs partially or completely.
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Market Challenges
Key Market Challenges
1. Present generation valve actuation systems and material technology limits the
price reduction on valvetrain for downsized engines.
9
2. The drive towards modularization of VVTs is yet to gain momentum due to ever varying engine sizes and different emission reduction targets from OEMs.
3. The higher cost of Diesel engines reduces the possibility of employing variable
valvetrain to prevent spiraling costs in the short-term and it is hard to strike a
balance between Diesel Valvetrain and after treatment costs.
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
VVT Market—Market Breakdown by OEMs
Total VVT Market: OEM split between Camphasing and VVA, Europe, 2011
~7 million units
~11 million units
14-16%
40.7%
557
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Pro
du
cti
on
(T
ho
usan
ds)
10
VVA – Camphasing + Valvelift, Note: Ren-Nis –Renault-Nissan. All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
2011 2018
84-86%
40.7%
59.3%
502
308
453
246
424
184
554
322 310
949
259
252
370
164
320
184
418
322
78
0
200
400
600
800
BMW Daimler Fiat Ford GM Hyundai PSA Ren-Nis Toyota VW
Pro
du
cti
on
(T
ho
usan
ds)
VVA Camphasing
Variable Valvetrain Market Opportunity
OEMs and Solution
Tier 1 and Tier 2 Suppliers
Tier 1 and Tier 2 Suppliers
OEMs and Component
Manufacturers
OEMs and Component
Manufacturers
Concept
Integration
Production
11M78A-18
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Op
po
rtu
nit
yO
pp
ort
un
ity 1. Component
Standardization and Modularization
1. Component Standardization and Modularization
Op
po
rtu
nit
yO
pp
ort
un
ity 1. Material Technologies
evolution
2. Increased flexibility to accommodate downsizing and rightsizing
1. Material Technologies evolution
2. Increased flexibility to accommodate downsizing and rightsizing
Op
po
rtu
nit
yO
pp
ort
un
ity 1.
Production, simulation and rapid prototyping technologies to reduce time to market
1. Production, simulation and rapid prototyping technologies to reduce time to market
Solution Developers
Key Conclusions
VVTs is expected to find market in premium diesel
VVT to be market standard for Gasoline Microcars and Naturally aspirated engines
VVT systems to form the basis for Downsizing and Rightsizing
Variable
12
VVTs is expected to find market in premium diesel segments by 2015–16
Standardization in VVTs to bring effective cost reduction for OEMs
Electric and Hydraulic actuation systems to be the market norm beyond 2014-15
Variable
Valvetrain
Market
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Valvetrain Technology RoadmapV
ari
ab
le V
alv
etr
ain
Syste
ms E
vo
luti
on
Do
wn
siz
ing
Mo
du
laris
atio
n
Camphasing,
4-5% CO2 drop
Camphasing + Electro Mechanical Shaft , 8-12% CO2 drop, Chain Driven, composite coating for Valves and other Peripherals
Camphasing + Electro Hydraulic Lift (VVA), 8-10% CO2 drop, Chain and Belt Driven with
Hydraulic control for Lift
VV
T D
es
ign
s t
o A
cc
om
mo
da
te D
ow
ns
izin
gIn
itia
l V
VT
Sys
tem
s
VVT Market: Technology Roadmap, Europe, 1995-2020
13M78A-18
Vari
ab
le V
alv
etr
ain
Syste
ms E
vo
luti
on
1995 2010 2020
Do
wn
siz
ing
Mo
du
laris
atio
n
Valves and other Peripherals
Camp.+ Shifting Camlobe + Elect. Actuation, 7-12% CO2
drop, DLC Coatings for Pistons, Valves, etc.
Fully Electro Hydraulic System, 8-15% CO2 drop, it achieved significant breakthroughs in low costs and component standardisation
Camless Electro-
magnetic Act., Expected 10-20% CO2
drop
VV
T D
es
ign
s t
o A
cc
om
mo
da
te D
ow
ns
izin
g
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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