strategic business wargaming: verstehen wie der … · 5 issues often tackled with wargaming...
TRANSCRIPT
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Analyzing Strategic Interaction
Strategic Business Wargaming: Verstehen wie der Wettbewerb tickt
Berlin, 7 July 2016
http://www.straint.de
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Personal Introduction
Prof. Dr. Hagen Lindstädt
Institute of Management,
Karlsruhe University / Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
Contact: [email protected] [email protected]
Studies in Business and Mathematics
Professional consulting since 1992
(5 years with McKinsey & Company)
Professor for Strategic Management since 2001
Advisor to leading German and European companies
(incl. DAX 30) and the German Federal Government
Experience in working with senior management client teams
Leading expert for strategy in oligopolies, competitive intelligence,
pricing, and strategy simulation
Operating experience and expert knowledge in strategic wargaming
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Strategic interaction and interdependencies are more than uncertain scenarios
SCENARIO ANALYSISDeciding to adapt to future uncertainty
Option A
Option B
Option C
Option D
Option E
SCENARIOS
WARGAMING & STRATEGIC INTERACTIONTaking action-reaction patterns into account
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All sorts of players can be analyzed – players don’t have to be assumed
acting as rational value maximizers but on ranked subjective preference
Supplier
Regional
Competitor
NGOs
XY RegulatorsCompetitor 1 Competitor 2
European
Customers
North American
CustomersCompany
Interdependencies between selected stakeholders in a market
Most important interdependencies
Other interdependencies Focus of
analysis
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Issues often tackled with wargaming
M&A, divestitures,
industry landscaping
Portfolio
management
Introduction of a new
product or technology
Market exit and
industry consolidation
Market entrance
and new competitors
Forward and
backward integration
Negotiations
strategy and tactics
Dynamic pricing stra-
tegy, commoditization
Capacity
investments
Competitive
positioning
Joint ventures and
strategic alliances
Regulatory and
environmental affairs
• Complex battlefield, multiple types of actors
• High strategic importance• Focused tactical decisions.
• Clearer battlefield, few types of actors
EXAMPLES
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For all players, we identify strategic options and rank strategy
combinations in heatmaps
Heatmap
interpretation:
State is more attractive than the status quo
State is as attractive as the status quo
State is less attractive than the status quo
CLIENT EUROPEAN COMPETITOR
CHINESE COMPETITOR MAJOR CUSTOMER
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Projects typically require 6 to 12 weeks and 35 to 60 man-days
Build consensus
about each players’
preferences
Workshop (1 day)
Identify stable
and likely outcome
scenarios
Analysis
Derive
management
recommendation
Core team analysis
RE
SU
LT
FO
RM
AT
Define the issue,
identify key
players and their
strategic options
Workshop
Interviews
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DELIVERABLES OF PROJECT
Stable and likely
states for key
players’ strategic
options.
Derivation of an
action-reaction-
pattern of com-
petitive dynamics
Commonly de-
veloped strategy
recommendation.
Four deliverables are developed
Identification of
strategic break-
points triggering
changes in strategy.