strategic challenges in india’s water management
DESCRIPTION
Strategic challenges in India’s water management. Presented to Green Business Council, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Hyderabad, 17 June 2004. Strategic Challenges in India’s Water Management Christopher Scott International Water Management Institute www.iwmi.org. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Strategic Strategic challenges in challenges in India’s water India’s water managementmanagementPresented to Green Business Council, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Hyderabad, 17 June 2004.
Strategic Strategic Challenges in Challenges in India’s Water India’s Water ManagementManagement
Christopher ScottChristopher Scott International Water Management InstituteInternational Water Management Institute
www.iwmi.orgwww.iwmi.org
Absolute Water Scarcity: Absolute Water Scarcity: India’s India’s Upcoming ChallengeUpcoming Challenge
3/4 th of India, Pakistan, West Asia, North Africa and North China will be in the throes of absolute water scarcity over the coming 25 years
Low rainfall/capita is the crux; 80% of it falls in less than 100 hours; storing it for 8 months in a climate of high mean temperatures, high windspeeds and low stream density is the challenge.
Western & Peninsular India and North Western & Peninsular India and North China Plains have Low Precipitation and China Plains have Low Precipitation and
Dense PopulationDense Population
Krishna Basin NDVI Krishna Basin NDVI (AVHRR)(AVHRR)
May-2001
Jul-2001
Mar-2001
Jan-2001
Nov-2000
Sep-2001
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
May
-00
Jul-0
0
Sep-0
0
Nov-0
0
Jan-
01
Mar
-01
May
-01
Jul-0
1
Sep-0
1
Rain (mm)
ETp (mm)
Drivers of India’s Water Future Drivers of India’s Water Future 20252025 Population Growth Urbanization Economic Growth Agrarian growth and food production Technology-trade factors
Plus..New approaches, mindsets,
Institutions and policies
2002: 707 functioning wells/64 km2002: 707 functioning wells/64 km22 (11/km (11/km22 = = 300m spacing). Shift from valley bottoms to 300m spacing). Shift from valley bottoms to watershed-wide distribution.watershed-wide distribution.
20020022
NGRI
19919955
19819855
Well Density IncreasingWell Density Increasing
Per Capita Real Income
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1980
-81
1984
-85
1985
-86
1986
-87
1987
-88
1988
-89
1989
-90
1990
-91
1993
-94
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98 (P
)
1998
-99 (Q
)
1999
-00 (A
)
Rs.
Northern StateSouthern State
2 Indias: Differential 2 Indias: Differential DevelopmentDevelopment
2 Indias: Water2 Indias: WaterEndowmentsEndowments
Repast of the Water Repast of the Water SectorSector India has been a ‘hydraulic
society’ for millennia Indus civilization Tank-based empires British era Modern India, since Independence:
Over Rs. 1,00,000 crore invested in dams and canals Rs. 24,000 crore per annum in power supply to
agriculture
““Tanks” in IndiaTanks” in India
Runoff Capture Runoff Capture (Harvesting)(Harvesting)
Lower Krishna River Lower Krishna River Gauge FlowGauge Flow
0
10
20
30
40
50
1894 1904 1914 1924 1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994
hour
ly d
isch
arge
[x10
00 m
3 s-
1]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
rese
rvoir sto
rag
e [M
m3
]
A river basin’s hydrology shapes its challenge. In Rhine and Omonagawa, rainfall always exceeds ET; in Murray-Darling, it never does; in Chad, Fuyag and Sabarmati, it does for a few months.
Potential ET Rain fall
Global Groundwater UseGlobal Groundwater Use
Country/ Region
Annual groundwater
use (km3)
No. of GW
structures (million)
Extraction/ structure (m3/ year)
% of population
dependent on groundwater
India 150 19 7,900 55-60 PakistanPunjab 45 0.5 90,000 60-65 China 75 3.5 21,500 22-25 Iran 45 0.5 58,000 12-18 Mexico 29 0.1 300,000 5-6 USA 100 0.2 500,000 <1-2
GroundwaterUse in India Has more to do With populationDensity than the Availability of theresource
NO COUNTRY IN THE WORLD PUMPS AS MUCH GROUNDWATER AS WE DO...WE ALREADY HAVE 21 M WELLS AND ADD 1 M/YEAR.
Sources of Irrigation Growth in India: 1951-1998-2025
y = 5193.2e0.0381x
R2 = 0.9857
y = 19486e0.0219x
R2 = 0.9949
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
'000
hec
tare
s of
Net
Irrig
ated
Are
a
Canals tanks groundwater
Other Sources Total Net Irrigated Area Expon. (groundwater)
Expon. (Total Net Irrigated Area)
At current rate, Groundwater use willEase out all otherSources of water..This indicates theFailure of publicSystems ..It will also redefineIndia’s water challenge
Groundwater BustGroundwater Bustelec. Consumption/acre '000 units Karnataka
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
elec. Consumption/acre '000 units
Groundwater Depletion: The Groundwater Depletion: The ‘wild-card’ of India’s Water Future‘wild-card’ of India’s Water Future
Water-Energy Nexus in Water-Energy Nexus in IndiaIndia 30% of India’s power used to
pump groundwater Power utilities bankrupt ($ 5
billion annual operating deficits) Booming groundwater economy Rationed power supply with
pricing a powerful power sector remedy plus an indirect tool for GW regulation
Twin East-West Energy Twin East-West Energy and Water Divides in Indiaand Water Divides in India
Demand Elasticity, Power Demand Elasticity, Power & Water& Water
ElectricElectricity ity tarifftariff
Andhra PradeshAndhra Pradesh Tamil NaduTamil Nadu
/kwh/kwh RiceRice SugarcaSugarcanene
RiceRice SugarcaSugarcanene
Rs. Rs. 0.500.50($0.01)($0.01)
- 0.3187- 0.3187 - 0.2572- 0.2572 - 0.3396- 0.3396 - - 0.29840.2984
Rs. Rs. 0.750.75($0.015($0.015))
- 0.4085- 0.4085 - 0.3564- 0.3564 - 0.4414- 0.4414 - - 0.38790.3879
Rs. Rs. 1.001.00($0.02)($0.02)
- 0.5967 - 0.5967 - 0.4768- 0.4768 - 0.6388 - 0.6388 - - 0.49250.4925
Price/Unit
Opportunity Cost/Unit
Quantity of Water & Power
P’n
Supplyw,n = MCn
Demandw,n = MVPw
P’w
Qo
expands social welfare
Supply’w1,n = MC’n
Q1
Innovation that reduces metering cost to zero
Flatrate produces
benefits for buyers
The same effect is produced by charging flatrate & restricting power use to Q1
Water, Energy DemandWater, Energy Demand
Price/Unit
Opportunity Cost/Unit
Quantity of Water & Power
P’n
Supplyw,n = MCn
Demandw,n = MVPw
P’w
Qo
Supply’w1,n = MC’n
Q1
Raising FR to cover that loss will not help QMax
Degenerate flatrate:
In absence of rationing, farmers expand water use to QMaxThis reduces total welfare.
WASTE
Flat Rate with RationingFlat Rate with Rationing
Ag. Power Tariffs in 2 Ag. Power Tariffs in 2 Indian StatesIndian States
StateState Pump Capacity Pump Capacity (horsepower)(horsepower)
Drought Drought Prone Prone
DistrictsDistricts
OthersOthers
Andhra Andhra PradeshPradesh
(equivalent (equivalent tariff recovery tariff recovery = Rs. = Rs. 0.18/kWh = 0.18/kWh =
$ 0.004/kWh)$ 0.004/kWh)
Up to 3 HP Up to 3 HP Rs. Rs. 225/hp/yr225/hp/yr
($ 4.69)($ 4.69)
Rs. 275/hp/yrRs. 275/hp/yr
($ 5.73)($ 5.73)
3-5 HP 3-5 HP Rs. Rs. 375/hp/yr 375/hp/yr
($ 7.81)($ 7.81)
Rs. 425/hp/yrRs. 425/hp/yr
($ 8.85)($ 8.85)
5-10 HP 5-10 HP Rs. Rs. 475/hp/yr475/hp/yr
($ 9.90)($ 9.90)
Rs. 525/hp/yrRs. 525/hp/yr
($ 10.94)($ 10.94)
10 and above 10 and above Rs. Rs. 525/hp/yr525/hp/yr
($ 10.94)($ 10.94)
Rs. 625/hp/yrRs. 625/hp/yr
($ 13.02)($ 13.02)
Tamil NaduTamil Nadu Free electricityFree electricity
UrbanizationUrbanization By 2050, over half of India’s projected
1.5 billion population will live in cities … close to 1 billion urban residents… … growing wastewater volumes… Sticker shock: 73% of urban
wastewater in India is untreated, requiring US$ 65 billion or ten times greater than what the govt. proposes to invest (Infrastructure Development Finance Corp., 2003).
India: Key Water Sector India: Key Water Sector ChallengesChallenges Meeting water demand of
agriculture, domestic, industrial and environmental sector
Infrastructure creation and management
Water quality issues Groundwater depletion
Agrarian Societies
Industrial Societies
Post-industrial societies
Self-provision Public systems Public/Market Provision
‘Informal sector’ Public Utility Water Industry
heavily subsidized Cost recovery price Economic price
Free and plentiful Free and scarce Priced & plentiful
Household capital dominates
Govt capital dominates
Corporate capital dominates
No recycling Recycling without treatment
Treatment and recycling
Hydraulic Infrastructure
Resource Service provision
Challenges StrategiesChallenges StrategiesFood Security Improve water productivity in
agric. Better dry land farmingVirtual water trade-internal and globalGM and other technology?
Rural Poverty Off-farm livelihoods Crop/drop > crop+jobs+cash/drop Growth of the non-farm economy
Urban water supply and sanitation + water pollution
Quantum jump in investment Much improved planning and mgmt Institutional reform-public/private partnership Pricing strategies
Groundwater depletion and/or quality deterioration
Coping (salinity, fluoride, arsenic, nitrates) Imports of water: River-linking Project Groundwater demand management Decentralized rainwater harvesting and recharge
Challenges StrategiesChallenges Strategies
Thank you.Thank you.