TL already exporte

d

Timor-Leste

TL without Sunrise

Aust-ralia

Oil and gas reserves per person

510 barrels

800 barrels

310 barrels

More than

1,180 barrels

Will last for how long at 2012 production rates

14 years 5 yearsMore

than 58 years

Only South Sudan, Libya (and Equatorial Guinea?) are more dependent on oil and gas exports than Timor-Leste is.

• Projected state revenues in 2014:…………..…… $2,380 million$2,213 million (93%) will be from oil (incl. $770m investment return)$ 166 million ( 7%) will be from non-petroleum sources

• 2014 State Budget:…………………………………… $1,500 million $903 million (60%) will be taken from the Petroleum Fund in 2014.$430 million (29%) more is from the Petrol. Fund in the past and future.

• Non-oil GDP in 2011:..………………………........... $1,047 million Petroleum GDP in 2011:…………….………………. $3,478 mill. (77%) Productive (agriculture & manufacturing) GDP …. $ 179 m (4%) and dropping

• Non-oil balance of goods trade: $535m imports, $16m exports (98% coffee)

• Petroleum “income” goes to the state, not the people.

Importa Sistema Elétrika Nasionál

ImportExports (non-oil)Power plant imports“Imports” of U.S. dollar notes

99This graph shows legal goods trade only. More than 80% of donor spending and 50% of state spending goes overseas.

The green ‘target’ in the back represents the amount which would have been spent if execution was uniform throughout the year.

Million US dollars

Transfers

Capital & Development

Minor Capital

Goods & services

Salaries & benefits

Total revenue: $1,500 million, of which 89% comes

from oil and gas in the past, present and future.

Timor-Leste has problems finding jobs for the 16,000 young people who will achieve working age during 2014.

In 2024, 28,000 more people will seek work each year, and the oil and gas may be gone. Today’s youth will have children of their own.

•What are Oecusse’s competitive advantages?

•Can ZEESM justify investing $4 billion?

Who will benefit: Oecusse residents or political leaders?

• IFC is encouraging Timor-Leste to build a port and airport far beyond realistic traffic expectations.

•How will the country pay for a $6 billion annual trade deficit after the oil is gone?

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

TE

U p

.a.

Base full import Base full export Base empty container High Scenario Low Scenario

Traffic forecast for Tibar Port

• In 2010, TL began the South Coast Petroleum Corridor.

• During 2011-2013, TL spent $35 million

• Total project costs could exceed $2 billion (much more if Timor-Leste pays for the refinery, pipeline or LNG plant).• The new budget allocates $46m in 2014 and $320m in 2015-2018, but leaves a lot out.

You will find more and updated information at

•La’o Hamutuk’s website http://www.laohamutuk.org

•La’o Hamutuk’s bloghttp://laohamutuk.blogspot.com/

Timor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring and Analysis

Rua Martires do Patria, Bebora, Dili, Timor-LesteMailing address: P.O. Box 340, Dili, Timor-Leste

Telephone: +670 77234330 (mobile) +670 3321040 (landline)Email: info@laohamutuk.org