strategic foresight for environmental policy making reflections from the work of eionet flis network...

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Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria Ullrich Lorenz, Germany EPA – Meeting, Vienna, April 25 th 2014

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Page 1: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

Strategic foresight for environmental policy making

Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network

© Sean Gladwell – Fotolia

Alexander Storch, Austria

Ullrich Lorenz, Germany

EPA – Meeting, Vienna, April 25th 2014

Page 2: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

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Strategic foresight and environmental policy

To say it with Perikles:

"Predicting the future accurately isnot so important, being ready for it is”

To say it with Prof Dr. Sandy Thomas (UK):

“The program advises government onhow to ensure current policies are

robust in the light of future uncertainties”

Page 3: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

Complicated versus complex

Complicated problems• Originate from isolated causes that are

clearly identifiable• Can be dissected into isolated chunks• Consequences are generally proportionate

to their causes• Fixtures can be put in place for permanent

solutions

Complex or „wicked“ problems• Result from concurrent interactions

along multiple systems of events• Cannot be broken apart and solved

piece-by-piece. They must be understoodand addressed as a system

• Do not automatically stabiliseSee EEA Report ‚The European environment – state and outlook 2010: Synthesis’ and Fuerth & Faber, 2013 ,Anticipatory Governance – practical Upgrades’

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Page 4: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

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Environmental challenges are complex

• Many interdependencies and complex interactions between the economic, environmental, technological and socio-political sector

• Long delays, feedbacks, ambivalent impacts, saturation curves/tipping points

Environmental challenges

Page 5: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

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• Monitoring prospective oncoming events

• Analysing potential implications

• Simulating alternative courses of action

• Asking unasked questions

• Issuing timely warning to avert risk or seize an opportunity

Strategic foresight

Disciplined analysis of alternative futures

Page 6: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

Many methodologies – some examples

• Scenarios help explore the future development of specific challenges and policy alternatives to manage them.

• Trend analyses help understand past and present trends, like demographic, economic and technological developments and to explore the future directions they may take.

• Qualitative and quantitative modelling can improve understanding of complex environmental issues and their future development, for example by exploring interactions between environmental, social, and economic spheres.

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Page 7: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

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EIONET FLISforwardlookinginformation andservices

• Established 2009 as part of EIONET network

• Supports the collection of knowledge and information for foresight studies- e.g. usage for and inclusion in SoE reporting in future - and for forward-looking components of other studies

• Enhances the use of forward-looking information in policymaking and increases awareness of foresight methods

• Participating countries exchange practical knowledge and experience in developing and communicating foresight, discuss good practices, reflect on current studies, help to keep up with the state of the art regarding methodsSee EEA brochure no 1/2011 ‚Knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Services (FLIS)‘ at http

://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/knowledge-base-for-forward-looking

Page 8: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

EEA article 5 - projects

Purpose and Focus• Stimulate EIONET activities

related to forward-lookinginformation and services

• Enhancing the network ofnational, and similar,organisations in this area -> exchange and co-operation of countries in Forward Looking

e.g. ‘FLIS Regio’ dealing with downscaling and cross-border co-operation of FLIS on regional level

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Page 9: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

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• Coordination and steering group:– Cenia (CZ) – Miroslav Havranek– Umweltbundesamt (DE) – Ullrich Lorenz– Flemish Environment Agency (BE) – Marleen v. Steertegem– PBL (NL) – Jan Bakkes

• Task Management:– Umweltbundesamt (AT) – Alexander Storch– Swedish Environment Agency (SE) – Hördur Haraldsson

• Project Partner:– Kosovo Environmental Protection Agency (KO) – Afrim Berisha– LIFEMAP (RO) – Iuliana Nichersu– Ministry of Rural Development (HU) – Szandra Szomor– Slovak Academy of Sciences (SK) – Richard Filcak

• Associated Partners:– Slovenian Environment Agency (SI) – Barabra Bernard-Vukadin– Agencia Portuguesa do Ambiente (PO) – Sofia Rodrigues– Collingwood Environmental Planning (UK) – Owen White– Ministère de l'écologie, du développement durable et de l'énergie (FR) – Halvard Hervieu

Article 5 - projects

Page 10: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

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1st Art.5 - project aims

Exploring the Global Megatrendsdeveloped for the EEA SOER 2010 report with a focus on implications and impacts at a sub-European level, with a number of specific case studies.

Identifying key needs and areas of practice to• enhance knowledge levels,• encourage participation and• facilitate sharing of experience

within and between NRCs FLIS in relation to institutional and methodological approaches to forward-looking analysis.

Page 11: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

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2nd Art.5 - project

Task 1 – Networking• Task 1.1: Enhancement of the NRC FLIS network• Task 1.2: Environment and security seeding• Task 1.3: Horizon scanning seeding• Task 1.4: FLIS Live Catalogue of Needs and Offers• Task 1.5: FLIS Group for regional foresight analyses

Task 2 – Contribution to the EEA package on resource efficiency• Task 2.1: Advanced applications of modelling

approaches for resource efficiency• Task 2.2: Applications of CIB scenario technique

for resource efficiency context scenarios• Task 2.3: Resource efficiency perspectives

for biodiversity

Page 12: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

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Some conclusions

EIONET FLIS provides aplatform for EPAs to exchange(model of success!)

Not only knowledge but ‘hands on’ skills required

Complex problems require adequate methodologies which can be found in the “toolbox” of strategic foresight

Strategic foresight provides proper tools for professional and efficient policy advice

EIONET/FLIS – Co-ordination Group:„One-pager“: FLIS: a resource to help deal with challenges for environmental policy

Page 13: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

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Next Steps ...How could EPA-network benefit from the experience?

– Founding an interest group: IG strategic foresighthosted by .... ?

– Proposal: Having a workshop to discuss scope and possible outcomes of IG Strategic Foresight

– Possible topics:1. European Horizon Scanning Panel2. Urban Environmental Outlook 20503. Sustainable Strategies for changing Regions

EPAs are invited to design this projects in a special FLIS-EPA workshop!

Page 14: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

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1st forward looking proposal to EPAs

European Horizon Scanning Panellooking systematically on: wildcards, emerging issues trends. Detecting:

Threads, Chances, Potential Risks, Opportunities Possible impacts on environmental policy

Building Blocks:- Desktop research on existing sources (e.g. UK CERF, EEA GMT, etc.)- Call for trends / online assessments - Annual expert meeting to assess trends/emerging issues - Possible output: EPA- Trend-report

Page 15: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

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2nd forward looking proposal to EPAs

Urban Environmental Outlook 2050A qualitative analysis of driving forces, trends and interdependencies on the most relevant environmental urban issues – a preliminary study of a BAU scenario.

1. What are the most relevant effects of European megatrends on urban megatrends for specificurban regions or cities?

2. How strong are driving forces and the most relevant effects connected?

3. What are the resulting most heavy environmental impacts by the change up to 2050 for each of the participating urban region or city?

Page 16: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

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3rd forward looking proposal to EPAs

Sustainable and Resilient Strategiesfor Regions in Change

with

Massive change of conditions

New intensive use of natural resources

Big infrastructure investments

Rigorous planed transformation

Page 17: Strategic foresight for environmental policy making Reflections from the work of EIONET FLIS network © Sean Gladwell – Fotolia Alexander Storch, Austria

Concrete action: Ad hoc project inIG resources

The project:Exploring the nexus of resource efficiency policy and climate change policy.

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Overall goalIdentification of potential synergies and conflicts between the policy domains resource and climate policy for strengthening national, regional and European resource policy.

Participating CountriesDE, CH, AT, NL,PL, CZ, FI

Costs- No budget available. Travel cost on own expenses- Tool for model development is available

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Estimated effort- 1 full day workshop at a place with good access- 1-2 virtual meetings (Telco – shared screen) approx. 2 hours each- Time for writing, editing, commenting (depending on the role: author, co-

author, only comments)- Possibly presentation at European Resources Forum (ERF) 10.-11. Nov., 2014

(Berlin, DE)Method- Qualitative group modelling enriched

with desktop research.Timeline- Beginning in May, 2014- End of modeling till summer break- Evaluation of the model and writing of a paper till September, 2014- Commenting in IG Resources till October, 2014

Concrete action: Ad hoc project inIG resources

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Contact

Alexander [email protected]

Ullrich [email protected]

Not everything have to be known in advance, but everybody is thinking about risks in daily live. So what’s about countries and institutions and their practice to think about possible environmental situations in future, about risk prevention and about strategic planning of long-term coherent policies?

Documentation of projects, information and services by EIONET/FLIS:-> http://forum.eionet.europa.eu/nrc-flis/library/project

© Sean Gladwell – Fotolia

Are there undesired consequences, which are influenceable today, if we would think more about?

How much will scare us tomorrow, being avoidable, if we would care about it timely?

Thank you for your attention on the future!