strategic opportunities charting a new approach to security assessment in the americas by ivelaw l....
TRANSCRIPT
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Charting a New Approach
to Security Assessment
in the Americas
byIvelaw L. Griffith
Florida International University
[email protected] ~~~~~
Strategic OpportunitiesStrategic OpportunitiesMiami~March 9-11, 2005
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Restart, Ponder, Be Puzzled
“We need to start afresh, to relax in our gardens, emulate [Isaac] Newton and ponder the scene around us, allowing ourselves to be puzzled by those recurring patterns that seem self-evident but that somehow have never been adequately explained.” ~~ James Rosenau, The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy (1980)
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Framework Design
Discrete Multidimensional Security Framework
Three Building Blocks (BB)BB I: Elements of StructureBB II: Core ConceptsBB III: Framework ElementsThe Framework
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BB I—Structure
Anarchy & Interdependence Small Size Vulnerability Weakness & Subordination Combined effects of SS, V, W & S
undermine ability of Caribbean states to exercise agency vis-à-vis rest of world and often the region
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BB II—Core Concepts
Many concepts, differing meanings
Definitional baselines needed
“Security” “Threats”
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“Security”
“Protection and preservation of a people’s freedom from external military attack and coercion, from internal subversion, and from the erosion of cherished political, economic, and social values.” – Ivelaw L. Griffith (1993)
Values include Democratic choice and political stability in the
political area Sustainable development and free enterprise in
the economic domain Social equality and respect for human rights in the
social arena
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“Threat” “An action or sequence of events that (i)
threatens drastically and over a relatively brief span of time to degrade the quality of life for the inhabitants of a state, or (ii) threatens significantly to narrow the range of policy choices available to the government of a state or to private non-governmental entities (persons, groups, corporations) within the state.” – Richard H. Ullman, “Redefining Security” in International Security (1983)
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BB III—Elements
Categories & DimensionsThreat Type, Intensity, & ArenaThreat Arena, Threats, and
Response InstrumentsInstruments, Actors, and
Security Engagement Zones
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Traditional Issues
Military
Political
Economic
Non-Traditional Issues
Military
Political
Economic
Environmental
CategoriesDimensions
Figure 1 - Categories & Dimensions
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Medium
Low
Peripheral External
Internal
High
Core
Threat Type Threat Intensity Threat Arena
Figure 2 - Threat Type, Intensity, and Arena
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Poverty
Political Instability
Drugs
Crime
HIV/AIDS
Border & Territorial Disputes
Hurricanes
Internal
External
E, P
P, E
M, P, LE
M, LE, P
P,E
Terrorism
M, P, LE, E
M, D, P
EM, M, E
KEY:
E = Economic LE = Law Enforcement
P = Political D = Diplomatic
M = Military EM = Emergency Management
Figure 3 - Threat Arenas, Threats, and Response Instruments
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Instruments
Diplomatic
Economic
Emergency Management
LawEnforcement
Military
Political
Actors
National:
•Individuals•NGOs
•Corporations
International:
•States
•IGOs•INGOs•MNCs
Security Engagement Zones
X Y
NationalBilateral
Multilateral
Sub-region
Region
Hemisphere
InternationalSystem
International
Figure 4 Instruments, Actors, and Security Engagement Zones
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Figure 5- Discrete Multidimensional Security Framework
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Purpose & Application To provide conceptual architecture for
explanation and interpretation of security structures, patterns, and dynamics, especially in relation to threats, actors, and responses
Heuristic device—not intended to explain each and every component of security scenario
(An heuristic device is a method or technique intended to help discover something or explain a phenomenon; something that serves as guide in experiment or inquiry. Greek in origin; comes from heuriskein, to find; same root as eureka.)
Could be applied empirically to different units of analysis: single state, sub-region, region.
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Caribbean and Beyond
Framework for security analysis of the Caribbean, but not only for the Caribbean
Intended to be dynamic, not static Application elsewhere will reveal different
configurations of threats, response instruments, actors, etc.
Same region, different time will reveal different configuration of threats, salience of threats, responses, actors, etc.
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Within Region ≠ of Region
Challenges within a region not always same as challenges of a region Regional security is relational Issue of salience: function of threat type
& intensity & influenced by 3 factorsNumber of states affectedDefinition of situation by relevant elitesAmount of resources invested by state
(& non state) actors
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Ask, Revise, Collect
“The scholar must have the flexibility of mind to overturn old ways of looking at the world, to ask new questions, to revise designs appropriately, and then to collect data of a different type than originally intended.” ~~ Gary King, Robert Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry (1994)
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Further Information
This framework is outlined in Ivelaw L. Griffith, “Understanding
Caribbean Security: Back to Basics and Building Blocks," Social and Economic Studies, Vol. 53, No. (March) 2004, 1-33.
This framework is outlined & applied in Chapter 1 of Ivelaw Lloyd Griffith, editor,
Caribbean Security in the Age of Terror: Challenge and Change. Kingston, Jamaica: Ian Randle Publishers, 2004.