strategic survey 2015-2016

Upload: rafigold

Post on 26-Feb-2018

216 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    1/149

    2016-2015

    ,,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    2/149

    2016-2015

    ,,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    3/149

    ,,

    2006.

    :

    ,

    ,

    ,.

    .

    :,,

    , , ,

    .

    ,,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    4/149

    2016-2015

    ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    5/149

    40

    39950 .

    .

    6997556

    : 03-640-0400

    03-744-7590 :

    [email protected]:

    http://www.inss.org.il

    ISBN: 978-965-7425-87-9

    2016

    :

    :

    :

    :,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    :

    .

    ,

    ,2015

    14 .

    ,

    ,

    :

    Strategic Assessment for Israel 2015-2016

    Shlomo Brom,Anat Kurz, Editors

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    6/149

    7

    15

    27

    37

    ?

    45

    '

    ?

    51

    ?

    57

    61

    ?

    67

    ""?

    71

    77

    ?

    81

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    7/149

    91 ,,

    101

    ?

    113

    ?

    123

    131

    2015-2011

    :

    2020-2016

    141

    153

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    8/149

    7

    ,

    .

    ""

    " ,

    ,

    2016-2015"

    .,

    , ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .,

    ;

    //

    ,

    .

    , .

    .

    ,

    .,

    ,

    ,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    9/149

    8

    ,

    ,.

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,,

    ,.

    ,

    ,

    )(

    .,

    .,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,.

    , ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ;

    ;

    ;

    ,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    10/149

    9

    , ""

    ,

    ,

    .

    ',,

    :,

    ;

    ;

    ,

    ,

    ,.

    "".,

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    .

    , " "

    .,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,, .

    ,

    ,.

    ,,

    , .

    ,

    .

    ,,

    ' ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    11/149

    10

    ,

    :

    .

    ,

    , .

    ,

    ,

    .

    :

    ,

    ,,

    .

    " "

    ,.

    , ,

    , ,

    ,

    ,.

    ,""

    ,

    .

    :

    ; ,

    '' '

    ;

    ;

    ;

    2015

    ' ' ;

    ;

    ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    12/149

    11

    .,

    ,

    :

    "

    ,

    ' ,

    ',.

    " "

    ,,,

    , :

    ,,

    .

    .

    ,

    ,,

    ,2015.

    '',

    ,

    .,

    ,

    .,,

    .

    ,

    . ,

    .

    .,

    ,

    ,

    .,2015

    , ,

    .,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    13/149

    12

    , .

    ,.

    ,

    , ,

    .

    ,

    ,.,,

    .

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,,

    ,,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,',,

    .,

    ,,.

    ;

    2016

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    14/149

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    15/149

    15

    2015

    )''(,

    .

    , .

    ,.

    ,

    .

    ,20.

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    :,',.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    16/149

    16

    ,,

    , .

    ,

    ,2015

    .

    ' ,2010

    ',.

    , ," "

    '', .

    .

    ..

    ,

    ."",

    ,

    ,

    .

    , .)' '( " ,2015

    ( 2015

    (,.

    ,

    ",.

    ,,,,

    ) ,",

    , "(,

    ,.

    ,

    ,

    "".

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    17/149

    17

    ,

    "

    .,

    ,,,

    ) , )

    ,

    .

    . ,

    : . " "

    ,

    ;

    ;

    )" "",

    .)"

    "(

    )"

    .

    , :

    ;,

    ;

    ,,

    .

    '

    '

    ,

    .',

    .

    "/''.

    ,,

    ,

    .,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    18/149

    18

    ,2015.

    ',,".

    ,

    .

    '' )( ,

    ,

    '', .

    )( ,

    ,

    , .

    "" ,

    . ,

    ) )

    . ,

    '

    '', ,

    ,

    "

    )(. "

    ,

    ,.,

    ,

    ,

    .

    2011,

    '

    '

    ,

    ,

    ) '"

    (.

    '' ,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    19/149

    19

    .

    ./

    ),(

    ,,,

    .,

    '' )(

    ,"" ), ''(

    '".,"'

    )(,

    .,

    ,.

    , "

    )

    ( ,,.

    ,2015

    "

    .,,

    . /

    '

    .

    ,

    '',,

    2014 2012 .

    ',,

    ,2015

    ,.

    ',2014

    ,

    ,

    ""' .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    20/149

    20

    , ,

    .,2015

    '

    ".

    ,

    .,

    ,

    ,.

    , . , .

    ,

    .

    , .

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    "",, ",

    ,

    , .

    ) "

    '(.,

    .

    ''

    .

    ( 2014 " ,

    (,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    21/149

    21

    ,

    .

    .

    )PKK( .

    , . ,

    ",,

    ''.,

    , .

    ,

    ",,

    ' .,"

    ',,,

    "

    .,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    2015,

    .

    ,

    ,.

    ( ) (

    ,.)GCC

    //,

    , .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    22/149

    22

    ,

    , , , .

    ,

    2014 2013

    .2015

    ,,

    .

    .

    ,

    /,

    ,

    .

    2014

    . , ,

    ., "

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,.

    ,

    ,.

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .,.

    ,

    ,./.

    .

    ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    23/149

    23

    '".

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    . , ,

    ,

    )(

    "" ,

    )(/

    ,.

    ,

    , ,

    '' .,

    .

    2015

    .,

    , ) (

    /.

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,.

    ,

    ,,

    "" ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    24/149

    24

    " ,

    ",1993.

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,,

    ,,

    , .

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    .,

    .,

    ,' '

    . , , ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    25/149

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    26/149

    27

    , 2016

    .

    ,2015

    ,.

    .

    ,

    .

    " "",,' ".

    . ," '/

    ,

    ".

    ,

    ,".

    .,

    ,

    ,

    , .

    ,,

    ,,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    27/149

    28

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    , .

    ,.

    , ,

    5".

    . 5 , ,

    ,,.

    ,2016

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    , .

    , .

    .

    ,

    .,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,.,

    ',

    ,

    .,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    28/149

    29

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,.

    ,1988"

    .

    ,.2016

    .

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    . "

    2015,

    ,.

    ,

    ,,

    ,.

    ,

    ",

    .

    .

    ''. ,

    ,,

    .

    ,,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    29/149

    30

    ,

    ,.

    ,

    .

    .

    .

    ,

    .,

    .

    ",

    .

    ,

    .

    , , )2015 30 23 )

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    , , .

    ,

    S-300,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,.,

    .

    ,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    30/149

    31

    ,

    .

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .,

    2017 .

    .,

    "".

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,.

    2015

    '' ).)ENP

    ,2004.

    ,

    .

    ENP

    '' .

    .

    . ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    31/149

    32

    ,,,

    ,,

    .)

    (

    ,

    .

    ,,

    "".

    ,

    , ,

    .

    , .

    .

    ENP,

    , ,

    .

    ENP

    ,.

    ENP

    ,

    .,2016

    ENP.,

    .

    ,"

    "

    .

    ,,

    .

    ",.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    32/149

    33

    . :

    .

    :

    ,.

    .,

    "",.

    ,

    ,.

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    ".

    .

    .

    ,,

    .,

    ',' ),)One Belt One Road

    ,

    .

    , .

    ,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    33/149

    37 /

    ?

    45 /

    '

    ?

    51 /

    ?

    57 /

    61 /

    ?

    67 /

    ""?

    71 /

    77 /

    ?

    81 /

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    34/149

    37

    , ,

    , .

    ,

    , .

    ' :

    ,

    ,'

    .

    ;

    ' ' .

    ,

    ,,,'

    ' '';

    ',/'

    :,

    ''.

    ,

    .

    ,.

    ,

    ,

    .,

    ,,

    , .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    35/149

    38

    ,

    ,,

    .

    .,2011

    ,

    .,,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    , ,

    , ,

    .

    (

    ,

    ,

    , . )

    . ,

    ,,,

    ,.

    "":

    ,.

    2015,,

    ,

    ,.

    "

    '

    ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    36/149

    39

    .,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .,

    ,. ""

    ,

    ,,

    ,'

    '

    .,

    .

    .

    .

    , ,

    .1

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,,

    ,

    .

    '',

    ,

    .,

    , , :

    ,,,

    .,

    ,;

    . ,

    ;

    ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    37/149

    40

    ',

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .,

    )""(.,

    . ,

    ,

    )

    (

    "", .

    ,

    .

    ,,

    .

    ,

    )2006( .,,

    , :

    ,,

    ''.

    ,,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,,,

    .

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    38/149

    41

    ,,,

    , .

    '

    ' :

    ' ) ,

    ',,(,',

    ,.,

    ',

    .

    , '

    ,,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ''. ,

    ;

    ;'

    '

    ,, ,

    ,;

    ; ' '

    ,,

    .

    .

    '

    ''.

    ,

    ,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    39/149

    42

    ' ) ' ,' '

    ,)' '

    ,

    .

    .

    '

    ,

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    , ,

    .

    .

    . , '

    ,

    ,.,

    '' ,

    ,

    .,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .,

    .

    ( ) ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,.

    ,"

    "

    ;

    ,

    :

    '; ' , , ;

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    40/149

    43

    '' ',

    , ' .

    2013

    ,

    ''. ,

    '',

    .

    '

    .,,

    .,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    .,

    ,.

    .

    ,

    ,

    .,,

    .,

    ,

    .,

    , , ,

    ,.2

    ,,

    , .

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    41/149

    44

    .,,

    ''

    .

    ,

    ;

    .

    ,.,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,,,.

    , ,

    " " .

    ,,

    .

    , . ,

    .

    ,

    Judi Rudoren and Sewel Chan, E.U. Move to Label Israeli Settlement Goods Strains Ties, 1

    The New York Times, November 11, 2015,

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/12/world/middleeast/eu-labels-israeli-settlements.html

    Robin Wright, Imagining a Remapped:, 2

    Middle East, The New York Times, September 28, 2013,

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/29/opinion/sunday/imagining-a-remapped-middle-east.html;

    Jeffrey Goldberg, The New Map of the Middle EastWhy should we ght the inevitable break-up of Iraq?, The Atlantic, June 19, 2014,

    http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/06/the-new-map-of-the-middle-

    east/373080/; Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, Plans for Redrawing the Middle East: The

    Project for a New Middle East, Global Research, September 4, 2015,

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/plans-for-redrawing-the-middle-east-the-project-for-a-new-

    middle-east/3882

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    42/149

    45

    ?

    ,

    "" '',.

    ,

    , .

    ,

    "" ),,(; .,

    "",

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    (

    '', (

    "",

    .

    ,

    ,.

    ) ""

    (.

    ,

    ,.

    ,

    ,

    " )( .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    43/149

    46

    ",,,

    .

    " " '

    .

    ,,

    .

    ,

    .,,

    ,

    .,

    "":

    "" ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    "

    "

    ,

    .

    , :

    , ;

    ;

    ' '

    ;

    ,

    . ,

    ,,,

    .,

    ,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    44/149

    47

    ?

    )(..

    )(.

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,)

    (

    ,

    ,.

    ,

    ""'

    ,.,

    .1

    ,

    .

    "

    "

    ,

    ,,.

    ,,1990

    )1918( ).)1967

    "". ,

    ( (

    , .

    ,

    ),(,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    45/149

    48

    , .

    ,,

    ,

    .

    ?

    ,

    .

    ,

    .,

    .

    ,

    "".,

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    .,

    ,,.

    ,,

    ,

    .

    ,,

    ,.,

    .,

    "" .,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    46/149

    49

    ?

    , , ,

    .

    ( ), 1

    ,

    ,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    47/149

    51

    '?

    ,

    , :

    '', ,

    ;

    ,;

    '

    '

    ,

    '

    , ) " )

    '.

    ,2011

    '.

    ,

    ,,

    .

    , ' '

    '',

    '' ,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    48/149

    52

    '

    '

    .

    ,.

    ,.

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    .,

    ,,

    ,,

    ,.

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,,.

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,,.

    .,

    ,

    .,

    ,

    ,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    49/149

    53

    '?

    ?'

    '

    ',.

    ,

    '.''

    )(','. '

    ,.

    , '

    .',,

    '' ,

    .

    , ' '

    .,

    '':

    , .

    .

    '

    '

    ,.

    , ' ' ,

    ,.

    ' ' ' ,

    ' ' , . ,

    '

    .

    .

    ,

    , '. '

    ,

    ''.

    ,

    ,

    ' ' .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    50/149

    54

    .

    ,'',

    ,

    '

    '

    .

    .

    ,.,'

    ,

    .,

    '

    .

    '.

    )(, ,

    .

    ,

    .,.

    ,,,

    , .

    , '

    '' .

    ,

    ' ' .

    ),

    ',(.

    '' ,

    .

    ,

    '

    .,

    ,,

    .,

    .

    ,

    '''.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    51/149

    55

    '?

    ,

    ''' ,

    .

    ,

    '' .

    ,'.

    '' .,

    , .

    '

    '.

    ''. ,

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .,

    .

    , ,

    . ' ' /

    ',

    ,

    .

    .

    '',,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    52/149

    57

    ?

    2015

    ''.

    )40(,

    .

    ,2015 ,' '

    ''

    .)

    (

    ''( )2000 ,

    .

    ,.,

    ,.

    :

    ,

    ,,

    ;

    ; ,

    ,

    ;

    ,

    ;

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    53/149

    58

    ,

    , ;

    '

    '

    ,

    . '

    , :

    ,,.

    ,

    .

    ,.

    ,

    .

    ,

    ),(,

    .

    ,.,,

    ,

    ;,

    '' ;

    ,;

    .

    ,,

    .23,30

    , 14

    .

    ,.

    ,

    ) ,

    (.

    .,

    ,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    54/149

    59

    ?

    ' '. ,

    2015,

    '',,

    ''.

    '

    ',.

    ,

    ,

    ' ' ,

    .,

    ,' '

    .

    .,

    ,

    , . .

    ,

    .

    , S-400

    . ,

    .,

    .

    ,

    ,.

    ,,

    , . ,

    ,

    .

    ,,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    55/149

    61

    ,

    .

    ,,

    , .

    ,:

    ,,

    ,,,

    ,

    .

    :,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,.

    . ,

    2012

    ' ' ,

    ,

    2015 .

    '''' ,3,000-2,000

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    56/149

    62

    .

    ,.

    ,'

    '

    .,

    ,

    . ,

    ,.

    ,

    ,

    60 , .

    ,.

    ,

    ,.

    ,,.

    ,

    ,,

    '. '

    , '' 2014

    ,.

    '',/,

    ,

    .,,

    ,

    ,

    '

    '

    ' .

    ',.

    ,,

    .

    ' ,

    ',

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    57/149

    63

    , ,' ' .

    . ,

    '

    ,.

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,.

    .

    ,,

    '.

    ', '

    .,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    , .

    ,,,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,.

    ,

    ' .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    58/149

    64

    ,,

    .',

    .

    ,'

    '

    ',,

    ,

    .'

    ,

    .,

    .

    '.

    "",,

    ' ' '.

    ,

    .',

    , ,

    .'

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    , . .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    '

    '.

    .',

    ,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    59/149

    65

    .

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    : .

    ,;

    , ; ,

    , ;

    ;,

    .'

    .

    .

    ,,

    , .

    .,

    .

    ,

    ;

    :

    ,;"

    , ;

    ,;,.

    ?

    ,

    ,

    .,

    ,.,'

    ,.,

    ,,

    ,

    ,.,

    ,

    ", ".

    ,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    60/149

    66

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    ,.

    ,,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    61/149

    67

    ?

    /2015

    ,

    .

    ,,

    " .,,

    )

    ( "

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    . ,

    ,.

    ''

    '

    '

    .

    ,

    , :

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    62/149

    68

    )(

    ?,?

    ,

    ,.

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ; .

    (

    ,

    ; ,)

    "" )'('.,

    .

    ,

    .

    )

    (,.

    .,,

    ,,

    .

    ,

    ,,'

    ''.

    ,

    .

    .

    .

    ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    63/149

    69

    ?

    ,,.

    ,,.

    '

    '

    . , , , " "

    '

    ,,.

    ,,

    ,

    .

    ,,,

    ,.,

    ,

    .

    .,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    , .

    ,

    ) .,

    (,,

    .,

    .

    , , ,

    ,' ' '

    )( ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    64/149

    70

    ;

    ,

    .

    ,

    ( ,

    ""(,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    65/149

    71

    ''?

    .

    )(, ,

    '.,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,,

    .

    ,"1995

    ,.

    , ,

    2014 :

    , 2015 ,

    ,.

    ,

    ,.

    ,,

    ,.

    ,,

    ,,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    66/149

    72

    ,,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    .,,

    .

    "

    "

    :

    ,

    ,

    ?:,

    ,

    ,.

    ,

    ,

    ,

    1

    .

    "" ,

    .

    ,

    , 2.

    . ,

    ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    67/149

    73

    ''?

    , .,

    ,.

    ,

    ,

    " , ,

    ,

    .,,,

    .

    C,

    ,.

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .,,

    .

    ,

    . : ? :

    ,

    .

    ,,

    ,.

    ,.,

    ,

    , )(

    .

    ,

    ) ,

    ( .,

    ,

    ,

    ,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    68/149

    74

    ,

    .

    ,

    .,

    , .) (

    "",

    ,.

    ,

    ,..3

    .

    ,,

    , , . ,

    ,

    .

    .

    .,,

    .

    :

    ,

    (, (

    , ,

    , .

    .

    , , ,

    , .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    69/149

    75

    ''?

    ,

    , , .

    (, (

    . . ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,,

    .,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,,

    2014,.

    46,

    ,2015

    "

    "

    1

    ,30

    " , .

    ,50,

    46.:

    http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonth.aspx?num=297&monthname=%D7%A1%D7A4

    %D7%98%D7%9E%D7%91%D7%A8#.VIVmG3VrKUk

    PCPSR48 ,2015 2

    ,51.65

    ,32.78

    http://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/621:.21,

    "

    194

    ;)1947(

    "

    181 3

    );)1967338 );)1948242"

    );)20021515 );)19731397" "

    .)2012( );)200411317" "

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    70/149

    77

    ,

    '

    , , .

    .,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,,

    ,

    ,.,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    Boycott, Divestment and BDS.,

    ),,,,, Sanctions

    (.

    BDS,

    .

    ,

    ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    71/149

    78

    , .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,,

    .,

    ,,

    ,.

    ,

    .'

    '

    ,

    ,

    .,,

    .

    ,

    ,,,

    .

    ,

    .,

    , ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    "",,.

    , ,

    ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    72/149

    79

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,.

    ,,

    ,.,

    ,

    ,

    ,.

    ,

    ,

    .

    .

    ,,

    ,

    .

    ,.

    , :BDS

    ;

    ,;,

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    ,.

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    73/149

    80

    ,

    , :

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    "", .

    .

    '

    ,,

    ,.

    ,.

    ,

    .,

    ,

    ,,

    .

    ,

    , . , ,

    ,

    .

    ,,.

    .

    ,,

    .

    ,

    ,,

    ,

    ,.

    .

    BDS.,

    , ,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    74/149

    81

    ?

    ,

    .

    ,)

    ( 2015

    ,

    "

    ".1

    ,,":,

    )(.,

    ,)

    (

    , , ) (

    ,.

    ,

    ,,,

    ) ,

    ,(."

    )(,

    .,

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    75/149

    82

    "

    ,.

    "":

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    /

    .

    . ,

    ,

    :

    , ;

    .,

    ,

    .,,.2

    ,

    .,

    ,

    .

    . "

    :

    ,

    )'', ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    76/149

    83

    ?

    , ''(;

    ; , ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    :

    ;

    ,;

    ,';

    ,.

    ,

    ",

    ,.,

    ."

    .

    ,

    .

    ,,

    ,,

    ''. ,

    ,

    , , , ,

    .

    , ,

    .,

    ),

    "" '(,

    , . ,

    :

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    77/149

    84

    ,

    " .

    ,

    , .

    ,

    , . ) , , , (

    ,,

    .

    ,

    .,

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ",

    .

    ,.

    ,

    ,",3

    .

    ,:

    "

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .4

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    78/149

    85

    ?

    ,,

    " ,

    ",.

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,.5

    "

    , ,

    .

    ,

    , . ,

    . (, (

    ,

    ,

    .

    ", ,

    . "

    ,,

    .,:

    ;;;

    ;

    ,

    ."

    ,

    .

    ,.

    : , ,

    , . ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    79/149

    86

    , .

    ,

    ,

    .

    . ,

    ,

    .,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,.

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    "

    .

    ,

    .,

    .

    ,.

    ,

    .,,

    ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    80/149

    87

    ?

    .

    .'

    '

    .

    "" )"(,

    .)

    (

    ;;

    ";;

    ; ,

    ,,;

    ,

    ;

    .

    , ,

    ,,,,,

    ,

    ,.

    ,

    .

    .

    ),

    ,(,.

    ,

    ,,,"

    .,

    )(,

    .

    ,

    , . ,

    , ,

    . ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    81/149

    88

    ,

    .,

    ,

    , .

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,,

    ,.,

    .

    ,.

    http://www.idf.il/SIP_STORAGE/FILES/9/16919.pdf """,", 1

    : "..15..",!,15 2

    http://news.walla.co.il/item/2872982,2015

    ,,,. 3

    ": ". 4

    ,

    ...", , 2http://www.haaretz.co.il/magazine/.premium-1.2605852,2015

    ", , 26 : " 5

    http://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/.premium-1.2760981,2015

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    82/149

    91 / ,,

    101 /

    ?

    113 /

    ?

    123 /

    131 /

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    83/149

    91

    ,,

    .,

    ,

    .

    .,

    '', ,

    :;

    , , . , ,

    ,

    ,

    ,,.

    2016

    ,,

    .

    .

    ,.

    ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    84/149

    92

    ,,

    ,.

    , ,

    :

    ,

    , ,

    .

    ,.

    '

    ",,,,,

    .

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    .

    1.

    ,.

    85.6 2014 2 ,

    )92.8,84.6

    97.1( ;87.5

    ,

    )97.1,75.584.1

    )89.4 ,79.8 ,94.2 (,;83.2

    93.3 )70.2 ,92.8 76.4; )

    ,( .''

    ) 32014367.63

    8.31,161119

    8.0522(.

    4

    ?2014,60/100,37

    ),,1774, 175

    ,

    1478(.

    )",,

    (.5

    .6 ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    85/149

    93

    ,

    ,,.

    ,

    ,

    ,

    " .

    )' '( "

    , , "

    .,

    :;;

    ;

    ,. ;,

    72013302013.

    .,

    ,.

    ,

    ,8

    ,,

    .

    "

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    .

    ,"

    , ,

    .

    ,,

    ,,

    .

    ,,

    .

    ''

    ,,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    86/149

    94

    ,,

    ,,

    .

    '

    . ,

    '',20

    .

    ,,

    . ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,,.

    ,2014

    :

    ,2.4100,000,

    .OECD

    700,OECD300

    100,000.

    .

    10

    620 2003 . ,

    )34(,66 ,210

    .9

    " .

    ,".10

    ,

    . ,

    .12 ,2014

    18,7.2

    4.7

    ' ' ' ' 11.

    ,2015,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    87/149

    95

    70.12

    .,

    .

    '

    2015.

    ,.,

    ,,,

    .

    .

    ,,

    .,

    )11, ,

    ,)20143.25,

    .13

    ,

    14.

    ,

    .2015 ,20

    2015,

    , .

    . ,

    ,

    .

    .

    ,.

    ,15

    ,

    .

    ,.,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    88/149

    96

    ,,

    .

    .

    "

    "

    .

    ",16 " 2015 7

    ", "

    ",,

    ".,

    .

    :

    . .

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    ,,

    .

    '

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,,

    .17

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    89/149

    97

    ,) (

    .

    ,

    ,

    : .

    ,.

    ,

    .

    2015,,

    ,.

    ,,

    ,

    .

    ,,

    ,

    .

    .

    ,?

    , ,

    ,.,

    ,,

    ,,.

    2011

    . ,

    ,",

    ,,"

    , .

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    90/149

    98

    ,,

    ,

    ,.

    ,

    :

    ,,

    .,

    ,

    2015 .

    .

    . ,

    ,.

    ,,,

    ,

    .

    http://www.un.org/en/globalissues/governance/:

    ,

    "

    1http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index. , : 2

    aspx#countryReports

    '',. : 3

    https://www.transparency.org/cpi2014/results,: 4

    ,"

    " ,

    5

    /http://www.idi.org.il,2009-//-/63-- ,

    ----/

    "?

    :

    " ,

    6

    ,", ))2012'509-493.

    ,

    :

    7http://www.pmo.gov.il/SiteCollectionDocuments/meshilut2013.pdf

    , "",,2012. 8

    http://mops.gov.il/researchanddevelopment/israelviolenceindex/ , 9

    pages/israelvioind_statistics_2014.aspx#top

    ),)2014 ,

    .

    http://mops.gov.il/Documents/Publications /RD/ViolenceIndex/ViolenceIndex_des_

    n2_2014.pdf

    . 10

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    91/149

    99

    :

    /

    ,)2015

    (

    ,

    11

    http://mops.gov.il/Documents/Publications/CrimePrevention/CyberBullying_Jan2015.pdf

    ', 12

    2015

    .

    ,

    "

    http://news.walla. . '-' 1,300 ""

    co.il/item/2853874

    ", , " , 13

    ,,539, 2014.

    ,,, ": 14

    ", ,,182, 2015.

    :""22015. 15

    http://www.president.gov.il/ThePresident/Speeches/:,"" 16

    Pages/news_070615_01.aspx

    http://www.btl.gov.il/Publications/oni_report/Documents/oni2013.: , 17

    pdf

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    92/149

    101

    2015

    ,

    ))2015 .20

    ,.,

    ''. ,

    ,

    .

    , 1.) 80-74(

    40 2015 .

    ,3323

    .2,,

    .380,

    21.4

    ,,,.

    '"', 2015

    ,.

    .

    .

    ,,2015

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    93/149

    102

    .5",,

    2015.6

    7.

    '

    ' ,

    '',,,

    .8,

    .

    ,9".10

    .

    '',.

    ,

    :,

    .

    ''

    .,'':

    ,

    80(.11 )95-90,

    )( ,

    ."

    ",,

    .

    .,

    .

    : "" )41

    50( ,3227(,

    (,12 47 ,

    '" )54

    ,3211

    , 13.)

    ,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    94/149

    103

    )201471

    ,51.2015

    )6 46(.,202015(.14 42014

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .,:

    , ? ,

    .

    )71(

    , , .15

    .

    .

    ) .

    ,

    (,,

    .

    ' '

    ,,

    ,

    .,2015.

    2015

    .

    ,

    ",

    .,

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    95/149

    104

    ,

    )70 .

    16.)

    )57(.17

    ,

    ,2016.

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    ),2014 ,2015

    ,,'(,

    .

    ,

    .,

    ,.

    .

    ,

    )60 )75-62(,18

    )60(.19 (.

    ,,,

    )20 2015

    ,70(.20

    "

    "

    ,

    32 2014 :

    ,58

    21. ,

    40.5 , 49 2015

    .22201553

    ,,23

    ,

    2015,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    96/149

    105

    44.5

    ( 26( , ,

    ,.24,,

    "".

    ?

    ""

    ,2013-2003)70(.25,

    )60-50(,26.2015

    .

    )30-10( )30-27(,

    .27

    ,)72-52(.28

    "",

    .

    .

    ,:

    ) "",47-40

    (.29

    ,

    44(

    ,

    , 21 (.30

    ,1967

    31.

    )48,46.5

    )68( ).32,

    .33:.34

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    97/149

    106

    2015

    , .

    ,.2015

    ,

    .

    "".,2015

    .

    . ,

    ,57

    , , 35.

    ,.36

    .

    2014 :

    56( ,

    ,

    37.)

    ,38

    69:

    ,24.38

    "",

    ,

    .

    2015

    . ,

    )73(.40, )77(,39

    )78(,

    )74(.41,

    ( 60-51( 42,) 70-69(

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    98/149

    107

    )38

    (.43,

    ,.

    "",

    "".

    ,

    :47-32

    40.44 ,

    , 59 2009 , .

    41.4520124852.46

    ,2015

    )60(.47

    ,

    2011

    .,

    ,,

    .2016,,

    .

    .

    ,

    :

    )

    ,

    (

    .

    )(.

    ,2016

    ,

    ,.

    ,,

    ,.,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    99/149

    108

    ,,

    .

    ,2016

    " .

    ",.

    ,

    ,.

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,.,

    ,,

    .,

    "".

    ,

    48.

    ,

    .

    ,.

    ,

    .

    :,,,,2015, 1

    =http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonth.aspx?num=292&monthname

    =http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonth.aspx?num=295&monthname

    13,.2015 ,, 2

    ,70.:, ",

    ", ,,13,20155-4. ",

    ,

    .100

    3

    ,,20.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    100/149

    109

    .

    7,000-6,000

    ,

    15

    " 2 , , 4

    http://www.mako.co.il/news-military/politics-q4_2015/,2015,10,"

    Article-3ad3eabe7325051004.htm

    ,' ',2015. , 5

    , "", , 16,20154. 6

    :; 7

    http://heb.inss.org.il/index. .2015 17-16 ,

    aspx?id=4354&articleid=8843

    http://www.peaceindex.org/ ,2015 , , 8

    ;VogiHWBuljo.#=indexMonth.aspx?num=297&monthname

    ,17-162015,

    http://heb.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4354&articleid=8843

    ;2015

    17-16

    ,

    9

    .

    ,. 10

    http://www. ,2014 , , ; : 11

    ;peaceindex.org/indexMonth.aspx?num=276&monthname= #.Vogiv2Buljo

    ,2014,

    #. =http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonth.aspx?num=283&monthname

    Vogi32Buljo

    http:// ,2014 ;2014 , , , 12

    Vogjg2Buljo.#=www.peaceindex.org /indexMonth.aspx?num=284&monthname

    . 13

    ;2014 ,, 14

    ,17-162015.

    .2014

    ,

    ,

    15

    , ":",,114, 14 16

    ;http://heb.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4354&articleid=770,2009

    ,130

    ", : " ,

    ;,,2014.

    ,,14 ,114;2009,, 17

    2015,

    =http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonth.aspx?num=296&monthname

    " ,; 18

    ",11-10,;2015,,,2014.

    .http://www.yozmim.org/2015/02/269

    ,,2015. 19

    . 20

    ;http://truman.huji.ac.il/?cmd=joint_polls )PSR(

    ,,2015,

    =http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonth.aspx?num=291&monthname;

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    101/149

    110

    .2015

    ;2015

    ,,2014, 21

    #. =http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonth.aspx?num=285&monthname

    Vogms2Buljo

    ,,;20152015. 22

    ,,2014. 23

    #. =http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonth.aspx?num=274&monthname

    Vogm7mBuljo

    ,,2015. 24

    . ; , 25

    .)PSR(

    . 26

    );)PSR,,

    ,

    17-16

    ,

    ;2015

    .2015

    ,17-162015. 27

    .

    28

    .)PSR(

    ,; 29

    ,17-162015.

    . 30

    .)PSR(

    . 31

    . 32

    ,,2014. 33

    . 34

    .

    ;2015

    ,

    ,

    35

    ,)PSR(

    #. =http://www.peaceindex.org /indexMonth.aspx?num=297&monthname

    VognZGBuljo

    ,. 36

    =http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonth.aspx?num=298&monthname;

    ,,;201510,

    42,36

    http://news.nana10.co.il/Article/?ArticleID=115724,

    ,,.201547 ,2012 37

    .:,.

    ,. 38

    ,, 17;2015,. 39

    .2015

    ,

    ,

    40

    15 ,102015. 41

    ,,;201515 ,10 42

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    102/149

    111

    http://news.nana10.co.il/Article/?ArticleID=1137624,2015

    ,;10. 43

    . 44

    ,114

    ",,

    :

    " ,

    45

    14,2009.

    ,. 46

    ,,,2015. 47

    , , , 48

    ;1999 , ,

    ,;, ,,

    ,2001.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    103/149

    113

    ?

    ,.,

    ,

    )( .

    ,2016.

    12016

    20152016,.,56.1

    (.2 ( 16.1 ",

    " 64.1","8".3

    2016

    )45.6"(,3.75

    ),2007(

    .4

    .

    " 6-3 ,

    , 5. ,2016

    201662-59",

    70-67".,

    ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    104/149

    114

    .

    2028-2019.

    () :1

    (",)

    201048.62.751.3

    201149.32.852.1

    201250.53.153.6

    201352.53.455.9

    201451*1.1*52.1

    201556.96

    )(201656.1 )(6-3 62-59

    ''. *7

    :,2016-2015.

    "

    "

    )" )"

    4.7 5.5 2015

    ) .[[i,

    .)2,,,

    .

    2015.

    .

    ,:

    8

    )""(,2007.

    ""9 " :"

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    105/149

    115

    ?

    "" )""(,10

    .

    11,"2020-2015 "

    )(.

    .

    :2

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

    %

    "/

    "/

    (. )2015 :

    :

    2012-2008 2015

    "

    3.8",10

    .

    ))2011 .

    " .,

    ,

    ".12

    .

    2007( ) : ,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    106/149

    116

    ;

    ;;"

    "

    .

    2012-2008""

    , , : ,

    ,,".13

    "" ),)2012-2008" ,

    . "

    ,".14

    .

    , ,

    ,

    .

    "" ":

    """",

    .,

    ,

    ,

    ( " " .

    (,15"

    .2020-2016 "",

    ",

    .

    "

    "

    ,

    "

    ,

    ,,,".16

    , , "

    .

    ","

    " . "

    ,,.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    107/149

    117

    ?

    "

    :

    ,20142007

    .2015

    .17 ,

    )67 59"

    (,, "

    .

    )1(.

    ,

    ,

    "

    .

    " ) 36

    ,)3642

    , 18.

    ,

    .19

    ,

    .)" (

    ,

    .,

    .,

    ".

    , ,

    ,:

    20,

    .

    "" ,,

    ,

    ...,

    ,",,,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    108/149

    118

    .,

    ".21

    ,,

    " 22.

    23."

    ,

    ,,

    ,.

    2020-2015

    "" ,

    "",

    .,,,

    , ,

    .

    ,

    2015 18

    2020-2015, .

    :24

    , .

    "". ,

    ," .

    .

    ) " .

    2016(.

    . .

    . .

    , .

    .

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    109/149

    119

    ?

    .

    ,

    .

    (

    ,)35.25,

    ,

    ..

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    2016.

    2015,2015

    .

    , ,

    ,

    .,,

    ,

    .,

    ,.

    .

    ,

    ,

    , .

    ,.

    ) ,

    (,.,

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    110/149

    120

    ,

    ,

    ,

    .)

    (

    .

    ,

    .

    )12" :)2015

    ][,,

    ] ".: "

    [,,".26

    ,,2016-20152015. 1

    http://mof.gov.il/BudgetSite/statebudget/BUDGET2015_2016/Pages/default.aspx

    " 16.1 " 56.1 2

    " )347.7"(.2016

    ,)

    "

    88.8( "( 424.8()11.7"(.:20, 111.

    )2.4( "" 3

    .)118 ,114 , )

    ,,",

    .

    ,118-114. 4

    (, ) " 3 : " 6-3 5

    :

    .

    "

    )

    (

    "

    1.7

    , "

    ",, 182018.2015 6

    2015.

    . ,2015 7

    ,

    """(. )

    )(. "

    ", 5 " , 8

    .2015

    http://www.mevaker.gov.il/he/publication/Articles/Pages/2015.08.05-Taktziv-Bitachon.

  • 7/25/2019 Strategic Survey 2015-2016

    111/149

    121

    ?

    aspx?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

    .2015 ", 13 ", 9

    "".

    http://www.maariv.co.il/news/military/Article-493493

    ,2015

    21

    ( 2015

    "", 26 10

    (.2014,

    .

    .

    ,

    )'

    (

    go.ynet.co.il/pic/news/duach13.pdf

    , ": ";",, 18 11

    http://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001082056,2015

    ,8. 12

    ,14. 13

    24. 14

    :, : 15

    ,,146,2015,

    http://heb.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4354&articleid=9396

    .

    "

    "

    16

    , " 17

    ,,

    :

    ,

    ,

    ."

    "

    ",

    ,,,

    )6(.

    )7,5 : 18

    ,510("27

    )",68(. 1.46"

    , 19

    )(,

    .

    .39

    ,

    20

    ",", , 212015, : "" 21

    http://www.i