strategies for a sustainable, co 2 neutral energy economy daniel m. kammen
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Strategies for a sustainable, CO 2 neutral energy economy Daniel M. Kammen Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy University of California, Berkeley Solar to Fuel – Future Challenges and Solutions - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Strategies for a sustainable,
CO2 neutral energy economy
Daniel M. Kammen
Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory
Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy
University of California, Berkeley
Solar to Fuel – Future Challenges and Solutions
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, March 28, 2005
Mobilizing for a Low-Carbon Economy
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/total.html#IntlCarbon
The time-scale of the Greenhouse problem (and opportunity) is ~ 5 decades. Doubling the pre-industrial CO2 level in the atmosphere is roughly the boundary between altered and unsafe; without action this be crossed within roughly 50-75 years. (This is not a prescription to wait, but a call for dramatic action now.)
Unconventional oil and gas, and coal, are abundant. With 15 times or more of these resources than oil, action on climate won’t be initiated significantly by resource depletion (i.e. I disagree with Hubbert’s Peak)
A portfolio approach is essential. The most basic lesson of our energy past is that diversity is our greatest ally (and the one we abandon most rapidly in a crisis). Basic research and policy analysis leading to action are both needed to open new opportunities for a low-carbon economy.
Bottom line: Despite some important successes, a seed change is needed
World Annual Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption of Fossil Fuels, 1980-2000
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/total.html#IntlCarbon
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent2.15
2.39
2.63
2.87
3.11
Concentration Increment (ppmv)Climate-carbon connection:2.1 Gt(C) = 1 ppm(v)
Modeled Response to Natural & Anthropogenic Climate Forcings
Global Circulation Model (GCM) results; summarized in IPCC 2001
GCM: Natural forcings only GCM: human + natural forcings
Philosophical changes require Philosophical changes require motivation:motivation:
Yet we have both local and globalYet we have both local and global ‘ ‘smoking guns’smoking guns’
The ‘slice’ heuristic:
Ecological CO2 ‘target’
Doubled CO2 ‘target’Expected path (BAU)
18
Gt(C)/yr
12
6
02000 2050 2100
Socolow and Pacala (2004)
15 “slices”
18
12
6
0
Gt(C)/yr
2000 2050 2100
50 year pathways to evolve 1.0 Gt(C)/yr carbon offsets
Socolow and Pacala (2004)
A. Capturing Solar
Energy in space(Peter Glaser et al.,
1970s)
B. Global Superconducting
Transmission Grid (Buckminster Fuller,
1970s)
A View of our energy system as unlikely to make sufficient progress
toward a low-carbon future without revolutions
Hoffert et al. (2003)
Between you and Between you and me, I am rather me, I am rather dismayed by the dismayed by the
responses.responses.
We have done too We have done too little to move little to move
beyond ‘solving’ beyond ‘solving’ the (easy) the (easy)
boundary value boundary value problems… which problems… which are the ones we are the ones we wantwant to hear to hear
Energy Star HomeAverage
Dane
Average in Berkeley Residential Electricity Use
(kWh/capita, 1960 - 2000)
Savings Wedge
25
35
45
55
19901995200020052010201520202025Year
Primary Energy, Quads
Space HeatingSpace CoolingWater HeatingLightingRefrigeratorsPCTVOther
Business-As-Usual
Moderate Scenario
1990 Emissions Levels1500
2100
2700
3300
Carbon Dioxide Emissions, MMTCE
A
25
35
45
55
19901995200020052010201520202025Year
Primary Energy, Quads
Space HeatingSpace CoolingWater HeatingLightingRefrigeratorsPCTVOther
Business-As-Usual
Aggressive Scenario1990 Emissions Levels
1500
2100
2700
3300
Carbon Dioxide Emissions, MMTCE
B
Source: Kammen & Ling, in press
EnergyEfficiencyFutures
Conclusions:
A) Moderate path:1.5% annual improvementEmissions growth halted at a savings
B) Aggressive path:2.9% annual improvement Meet Kyoto levels by efficiency alone & facilitate clean energy market development
Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the United States
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
IEA data EIA data
- 2.7%Average = - 0.7%- 3.4%
Rosenfeld, CEC, LBL
Efficiency (%)
Cu(In,Ga)Se2
Amorphous Si:H(stabilized)CdTe
Universityof Maine
Boeing
Boeing
Boeing
BoeingARCO
NREL
Boeing
Euro-CIS
12
8
4
0200019951990198519801975
United Solar
16
20
24
28
32 t
s
s
s
s
s
st Three-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)
Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)
NREL/Spectrolab
NRELNREL
JapanEnergy
Spire
NorthCarolinaStateUniversity
Multijunction Concentrators
Thin Film Technologies
Best Research-Cell Efficiencies
sVarian
RCA
Solarex
UNSW
UNSW
ARCO
UNSWUNSW
UNSWSpire
Stanford
Westing-house
Crystalline Si CellsSingle CrystalMulticrystallineThin Si
UNSWGeorgia Tech
Georgia Tech
Sharp
Solarex Astro-Power
NREL
AstroPower
tSpectrolab
NREL
•
Emerging PV
• ••• •
•••
•
••
•••
•
Masushita
Monosolar
Kodak
Kodak
AMETEK
PhotonEnergy
Univ.S.Florida
NREL
NREL
NREL
Princeton
U. Konstanz
U.CaliforniaBerkeleyOrganic Cells
NREL
NRELCu(In,Ga )Se 214x Concentration
t
Source: T. J. Berniard, NREL
World PV Module Shipments (Megawatts)(25% annual growth for 10+ years)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Rest of World 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 10 9 19 28 44 68 80 104
Europe 3 4 5 7 8 10 13 16 17 22 20 19 30 30 41 52 77 120 185
Japan 10 12 19 13 14 17 20 19 17 17 16 21 35 49 75 100 165 180 219
United States 8 7 9 11 14 15 17 18 22 26 35 39 51 54 58 61 63 65 66
Total 23 26 30 34 40 47 55 58 60 70 78 89 126 151 202 257 373 445 574
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2003 Annual growth: 34%; 50% in 2004 (to 1200 MW)
Today: global PV production is equivalent (MW) to one large fossil-fuel power plant/year
6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each = 20 TWe6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each = 20 TWe
A useful (?) heuristic, or an example of stagnant thinkingA useful (?) heuristic, or an example of stagnant thinking
Solar Across Scales
Moscone Center: 675,000 W
Kenyan PV market:
Average system: 18W
Kammen home: 2400 W
Performance Results for a-Si PV Modules
0
20
40
60
80
100
Koncar(12 Wp)
Free EnergyEurope
(12 Wp)
IntersolarPhoenix Gold
(14 Wp)
CrystallinePV (various
brands)
Maximum Power Output(% of Rated Power)
Module Brand
Learning Curve for PV Modules (crystalline silicon)
2000
1980
1990
1
10
100
1 1010-110-210-310-4 102 103
Cumulative installed PV Peak Power [GWp]
[€/Wp]
20202010
Today PV electricity costs about $0.20 - 0.25/kWh, Which can be compared with $0.32/kWh PG&E charges for TOU customers during peak time (noon-6pm)
Biomass – in Sub Saharan Africa(500 million tons/yr)
Biomass accounts for :
• 70% of total energy use
• 90% of household use• Compared with 3% for OECD countries
Of harvested wood :• ~ 75% used for cooking• ~ 15% used to make charcoal
Charcoal use is:• Growing faster than woodfuel• Mainly commercial urban fuel• Attributed main blame for
unsustainable forest use
Bailis, Ezzati and Kammen (2005)
World Wind Electricity Capacity (Megawatts)(20%+ annual growth for over a decade!)
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000
China 0 1 1 1 4 4 5 8 12 25 36 59 143 217 267 344 401 468 525
USA 5 10 70 240 597 1039 1222 1356 1396 1403 1525 1575 1584 1617 1656 1697 1698 1706 1848 2511 2578 4275 4685 6,374
EU 439 629 844 1211 1683 2497 3476 4753 5453 9678 1288 1731 2305 2800
Annual Addition 5 15 65 120 390 420 250 180 130 150 200 240 250 500 180 1290 1290 1570 2510 3780 4520 6480 6720 8133
Total 10 25 90 210 600 1020 1270 1450 1580 1730 1,930 2170 2290 2990 3145 4780 6070 7640 1015 1393 1845 2493 31,65 3929
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03
Global leaders: Germany, Denmark, Spain, US, UK, China, India (> 85 of global market)US was a global leader, today we are a player, but not the leader.
Meg
awat
ts
State Renewables Portfolio Standards and Mandates – 16 States
• Renewable energy “goals” established in Illinois and Minnesota• RPS being considered in many other states (e.g., VT, WA); potentially revised in others
(ME, PA, WI); and national RPS is being discussed (by some)
HI: 20% by 2020
WI: 2.2% by 2011
NV: 15% by 2013
TX: 2880 MW by 2009
PA: varies by utilityNJ: 6.5% by 2008
CT: 10% by 2010
MA: 4% new by 2009
ME: 30% by 2000
NM: 10% by 2011
AZ: 1.1% by 2007
MN: 10% by 2015 for Xcel + >800 MW RE requirement
IA: 105 aMW
MD: 7.5% by 2019
RI: 16% by 2019
NY – in development: 7.5% new by 2013
CA: 20% by 2017
11/2/04
NY: 25% by 2020
R. Wiser, LBL
UNIV ERSIT Y O F CAL IF ORN IABERK ELE Y
REP ORT OF THERENEWAB LE AND APP ROPRIA TE EN ERGYLABORA TO RY
Putting Re newa bles t o Work:How Many J obs C an theClean Energy IndustryGenerate?
by
Daniel M. Ka mmenKa mal K apadiaMatthias Fripp
of theEnergy and Resource s Group &the Goldman Sc hool of Pu blic Po licy
APRIL 13, 2004
http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~rael/papers.html
Report availableat:
Study reviews:
• 13 studies of job creation
• Message: energy efficiency and renewables create large numbers of high quality jobs
New SUV Models Coming Soon
The Kenworth Grand Dominator - Extra high roof/cathedral ceilings - Power expandable sides - Full lavatory
The Peterbuilt CrusaderAll Sport Denali
The worlds first two story high performance sport brute
Crusader-E Edition: includes elevator
Source: http://poseur.4x4.org/futuresuv.html
Greenhouse Comparison:FCVs, ICEs and Hybrid Vehicles
Source: Bevilacqua-Knight, 2001
Carbon-Free Power by 2050(Berry and Lamont)
• U.S. Population 400 million people (up 40%)• Electricity Use 3 kWe/capita (up 37%)
• Wind 300,000 5 MW Turbines (All the wind-power available from the Dakotas)
• Solar PV 150 million 25 kW roofs (Every roof top in the United States)
• Biomass Not included, but could be > 10% of total• Advanced Fission 300 1 GWe nuclear plants (50% efficient)
• 100% H2 Vehicles “80 mpg” average for cars and SUV’s 3 million H2 trucks, 5000 LH2 airliners
So, What are We Doing About All This?
Well, ….
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
R&D (billion 2002$s)
DefenseSpaceHealthEnergyGeneral ScienceOther
Federal R&D Investments, 1955 - 2004
Private Sector R&D Investment in Health and Energy
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Private-sector R&D (2002 $m)
Energy
Drugs and Medicines
Kammen qnd Nemet, 2005
Figure 1. Total U.S. patents granted and total U.S. investments in R&D.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
0
50
100
150
200
250
Patents Granted
Funds for R&D
Federal R&D Policy Can be Very Effective(All sectors of the U. S. Economy)
Margolis and Kammen (1999)
Pat
e nts
Gr a
nte
d (
tho u
san
ds)
R&
D S
pen
din
g (b
illi
ons)
Figure 2. U.S. energy technology patents and total U.S. energy R&D.
0
50
100
150
200
250
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
PatentsGranted
Funds forEnergy R&D
The Same Funding-Patent Correlation …But Now for Energy Only
Pat
e nts
Gr a
nte
d (
tho u
san
ds)
R&
D S
pen
din
g (b
illi
ons)
Margolis and Kammen (1999)
Kammen and Nemet (2005) in review
Citations Received per Patent"Energy Sector" vs. All Patents
0
2
4
6
8
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995Average citations received per
patent Power Plants
All Patents
• Low cost photovoltaics (< $1/Watt)• Drivers: funding; technology diversity; markets
• Low cost energy storage•H2, flywheels, compressed air, pumped hydro, …
• Biomass gassification across scales of application• Power electronics for mini-grids, distributed systems • Carbon sequestration• Nano energy and wireless systems to initiate a second ‘wave’ of energy efficiency increases• Understanding and action on the economics of carbon (and pollutants generally)
Some Critical Needs for Research
• Expand state renewable energy portfolio standards
• Support Solar Home bills (build clean energy markets)• & renewable energy/energy efficient mortgages
• Accelerate the CA Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard
• Enact carbon cap & trade: work with western states, northeast US (RGGI), UK
• Get serious about Kyoto and a carbon tax
Opportunities for Policy Action
To Address Climate Change, we must utilize renewable energy
Carbon Emissions for Various Electricity Generation Options
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Coal Steam Coal IGCC Coal AIGCC Gas CC Nuclear Renewables
550450
Carbon/kWh for atmospheric stabilization
at 450, 550 ppm
kg (
carb
on)/
kWh
of E
lect
rici
ty
Advanced coal technologies
Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 1850: 265 ppmAtmospheric CO2 concentration in 2000: 370 ppm
Carbon Emissions for Various Electricity Generation Options
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Coal Steam Coal IGCC Coal AIGCC Gas CC Nuclear Renewables
550450
Carbon/kWh for atmospheric stabilization
at 450, 550 ppm
kg (
carb
on)/
kWh
of E
lect
rici
ty
Advanced coal technologies
Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 1850: 265 ppmAtmospheric CO2 concentration in 2000: 370 ppm
= -1%/yr
To Address Climate Change, we must utilize renewable energy
Potential 1 Gt Carbon Industries in 2050 (p.1 of 2)View of energy system as available solutions (Socolow & Pacala, 2004)
MitigationMeasure
1 Gt(C)/yr Global Business Risk, Impact
Coal plant: CO2 stored, not vented
700 1GW plants CO2 leakage
Nuclear displaces average plant
1500 1 GW plants (5 x current) Nuclear proliferation and terrorism, nuclear waste
Wind displaces average plant
150 x current NIMBY, new transmission needed
Solar PV displaces average plant
2000 x current; 5x106 ha Minimal impact, cost
Hydrogen fuel 1 billion H2 cars (CO2-emission-free H2) displace 1 billion 30 mpg gasoline/diesel
H2 infrastructure; cost, H2 storage
Efficiency, overall 8% of 2050 “expected” fossil C extraction Minimal
Efficiency, vehicles only
2 billion gasoline and diesel cars at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg (or, at 30 mpg, going 6,000 rather than 12,000 miles per year).
Lifestyle (car size and power)
Urban design
MitigationMeasure
1 Gt(C)/yr Global Business Risk, Impact
Geological seq’n 3500 Sleipners, at 1 Mt( CO2)/year Global and local leakage
Land sink Now 1.5 Gt(C)/yr, sink becomes 2.0 Gt(C)/yr, rather than 1.0 Gt(C)/yr
Current estimate for 2050 sink is several times more uncertain
Biomass fuels from plantations
100x106 ha, growing @ 10 t(C)/ha-yr Biodiversity, competing land use
(200x106 ha = US agricultural area)
Storage in new forest 500x106 ha, growing @ 2 t(C)/ha-yr Biodiversity, competing land use
Achieving stabilization, slice by slice (p.2 of 2)