strategies for “national gas companies” in the · pdf filestrategies for...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic
Hadi HALLOUCHEBryan TRAINCass Business School
![Page 2: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Agenda
ContextCompanies/countries studiedMethodological structureCorporate attributesNational and Corporate StrategiesConclusion
![Page 3: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Context
LNG becoming more important, in the US, EU and PacificReserves of gas less concentrated than oil, regionallyBut more, nationallySmall number of playersMost players are “national oil companies”
![Page 4: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Context….cont
Unprecedented growth in LNG marketFundamental changes in the contractual structureChanges in legislative structure in key markets
![Page 5: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Countries
AlgeriaEgyptIranLibyaNigeria
OmanQatarTrinidad & TobagoUAEVenezuela
![Page 6: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Methodological Structure
A modified Porters-5 forces
![Page 7: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Government
Pipeline LNG
Oil Ministry
National Company
Gas Activity
BUYER
Banks ServiceCompanies
EconomyDiversification
Oil
GTL/chemicalIndustry
Coal & Nuclear
Gas Reserves
Proximity toPorts/markets
Oil vs GasReserves
Oil/gas Legal Framework
GovernmentProgramme
ForeignPolicy
![Page 8: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Reserves
Gas Vs Oil Reserves (% of world)
0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%
10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%
Iran
Qatar
UAE
Nigeria
Algeria
Venezuela
Egypt
Libya
Om
an
T&T
GasOil
![Page 9: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Proximity to markets
USA, also EuropePotential regionally?Venezuela
Pacific and AtlanticUAE
USA, also EuropeT&T
Pacific and AtlanticQatar
Pacific and AtlanticOman
Europe, also USAPotential regionallyNigeria
Europe, also USAGood proximity to Europe Libya
Pacific and AtlanticGood proximity to India and East EuropeIran
Europe, also USAGood proximity to Europe and Middle EastEgypt
Europe, also USAGood proximity to West EuropeAlgeria
LNGPipeline
![Page 10: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
On the map
![Page 11: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Government & Company
100%NIOC/NIGECN/AFiscal Revenues (45%), Export Revenues
(80%) Iran
Qatar Petroleum (100%), RasGas(70%), RasLaffan(70%)about 65%Fiscal revenues (75%) and GDP (31%)Qatar
100%ADNOC/ADGASabout 30%Fiscal revenues (63%) and GDP (30%)UAE51%Oman LNGabout 45%Fiscal revenues (70%) and GDP (40%)Oman100%PDVSAN/A
Export revenues (75%) and Fiscal Revenues (45%)Venezuela
100%EGPC/EGASabout 24%GDP (7%)Egypt100%NEC/NGCabout 5%
Export revenues (70%) and Fiscal revenues (25%)
Trinidad& Tobago
100%NNPC49%Export revenues (93%) and Fiscal Revenues
(80%)Nigeria
100%NOC100%Export revenues (95%) and Fiscal revenue
(75%) Libya
100%Sonatrach100%Export revenues (95%), Fiscal revenue (70%) and
GDP (40%)Algeria
State ownershipNOC
State Ownership of Liquefaction Capacity
Importance of the Oil/Gas sector to the Economy
![Page 12: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The national character
State NGC
Shareholder
Monopoly
Revenues
Strategy andPolicy
Employment &Other subsidies
![Page 13: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Gas rich, oil poor
Algeria and QatarImportant investments over the past decadesReaching momentum
![Page 14: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Algeria
Algeria: SonatrachUnique Pipeline/LNG flexibilityVertical hedge (UK & US)
Reinforce pipeline flexibilityCooperation
Cooperation with Nigeria in infrastructureCooperation with Trinidad in SwapsCooperation with Qatar for vertical hedge?Geographical integration (Peru)Low investment in LNG?
![Page 15: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Qatar
Positioning as a swing producer: Pacific Atlantic?Upstream competition with IranBUT:Over investment in Liquefaction capacity?Over investment in shipping?
![Page 16: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Oil Rich, Gas Rich: The Sleeping Giants
Iran and VenezuelaOil reserves high, low historic interest in gasPolitical (and legal) dimensions particularly importantLow initial market share, coupled with high reserves entails aggressive pricing structure
![Page 17: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Sleeping giants…contOnce liquefaction capacity investment comes through in Iran, NIOC will have in a 2025 horizon:
2nd Reserves in the worldStatus as swing exporter of LNG: Pacific/Atlantic?Status of swing exporter of pipeline (India
and EU)Important pipeline/LNG flexibility
![Page 18: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Other strategies: Niche LNG players
Trinidad & TobagoOmanUAE
![Page 19: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Pipeline/LNG flexibility seekers
Libya (Greenstream)Egypt (Arab Pipeline Project)Nigeria (NIGAL)
![Page 20: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Existing pipelines
![Page 21: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Nigeria:A Med.Pipeline Player?
![Page 22: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
LNG vertical expansion
Algeria: Regasification presence in Spain and UK, and capacity booking in the USQatar: Regasification presence in Italy and the UKSHIPPING CAPACITY
![Page 23: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Shipping Capacity for National Gas Companies
Shipping Capacity (cu.m)
0
5000001000000
15000002000000
25000003000000
3500000
Sonatarch Qatar Petroleum
2005
2010
![Page 24: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
LNG Horizontal Expansion
Sonatrach in Peru (Camisea) for Pacific market
![Page 25: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Other substitutes
CNG - GTL becoming more importantQatar, Iran and Algeria
Gas intensive industries?Environment concernsOther raw materials (aluminium)
![Page 26: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Competitive environment
Algeria with Libya and EgyptQatar with Oman, UAE
Iran in the future (2008?)T&T with Venezuela, in the future (2010?)Also, is there an over-capacity of liquefaction capacity?
![Page 27: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Over-supply of LNG?
![Page 28: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Cooperation between NGCs
LNG projects are capital intensiveContracts are more flexibleOver capacity of production leads to lower pricesLower prices means lower margins and lower reinvestmentsLower reinvestment means lower safetly???Should cooperation between NGCs be encouraged?
![Page 29: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Cooperation with IOCs
Complementarity:NGCs have the reserves and local expertiseIOCs have technology and finances
![Page 30: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Conclusions
As upstream markets liberalise in some key producers, with high oil prices and changing gas market fundamentalsNGCs will become more present as global players rather than national or regional playersA number of low reserves players will try to maximise revenues from niche marketsA number of Mediterranean players will seek Pipeline/LNG flexibility
![Page 31: Strategies for “National Gas Companies” in the · PDF fileStrategies for “National Gas Companies” in the Atlantic ... Nigeria Potential regionally Europe, ... {Other raw materials](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022022004/5aa5b2b17f8b9a185d8da8f2/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Conclusions
Gulf players will seek Atlantic/Pacific flexibility“Sleeping giants” will enter the market with aggressive pricing to gain market shareExperienced players will seek vertical hedge through shipping and regasification investmentAnd geographical expansion for Pacific/Atlantic markets