STRATEGIES for the WAR on TERRORISM

December 4th, 2002

CAPT. Takamichi Takahashi

JAPAN MARITIME SELF DEFENSE FORCE

~from a Japanese perspective ~

• Introduction

• The objective of the war and the desired end state

• The enemy Who or what is the enemy?The characteristics of the enemyThe enemy’s strength and weakness

• The strategy for the War on terrorism

• Conclusion

OVERVIEW

INTRODUCTION(1/2)●●●● QUESTION & PHENOMENON

How does the coalition for the war on terrorism ter minate the war?

Will the theater be expanded beyond Afghanistan?

What is the objective of the war?

Bombings in the Philippines ;;;; the Bali BombingThe number of terrorist organizations increases from 29 to 33

a bad omen for regeneration and the rise of new thr eats

• Lack of discussion on the objective and the desired end state(No strategy for how to terminate the war )

• no clear definition of the enemy

●●●● THE CAUSE OF THE PHENOMENON

courses of action are producing the bad effects.

INTRODUCTION(2/2)

Objective and desired end state of the war

Definition of the enemy

Characteristics of the enemy

STRATEGY

What should international society do?

What should international society consider?

THE OBJECTIVE OF THE WAR

●●●● WHAT’S NEW AFTER 9-11?

Mass murder resulting from terrorism is realized. (Concern for terrorism by WMD; Possible to visuali ze a tactical scene of a war)

Al-Qaeda has a sizable base and network (A kind of peer competitor against nation states)

Challenge to international order

(None can try to change the status quo of internati onal relations through violence.)

(To accept diversity, and seek commonalities)

To safeguard the international order from sizable andindiscriminate attacks by organizations such as al-Qaeda

●●●● OBJECTIVE

THE DESIRED END STATE

It is impossible for anyone to eliminate terrorism

Can weaken terrorists

Can prevent terrorists from conducting sizable or successful operations

To weaken terrorists to the extent to which it cann ot conduct sizable or successful operations

●●●● PRACTICAL DESIRED END STATE

(After reaching this state)The war must be terminated

●●●● WHAT INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY CAN DO

THE ENEMY(1/6)

No universal definition of terrorism, but a definit ion of the enemy is required

●●●● WHO or WHAT IS THE ENEMY?

Our war on terror…will not end until every terrorist group of globalreach has been found, stopped and defeated.

by President Bush, Sep.20th, 2001

• BUSH’s DEFINITION

every terrorist group of global reach is too ambigu ous as the definition○○○○ ““““terrorist” itself is ambiguous

e.g Pearl Harbor ? A-Bomb ? SNIPER around DC area ? Chechnya? Sarin attack by by by by Aum ShinrikyoAum ShinrikyoAum ShinrikyoAum Shinrikyo? ? ? ? Bali Bombing?

○○○○ There are some terrorists which are definitely not the enemy.○○○○ It is impossible for anyone to implement this state ment.

• WHAT IS TERRORISM?

• The term “terrorism” means premeditated, politically motivated violenceperpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups orclandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audie nce

TitleTitleTitleTitle 22222222 ofofofof thethethethe UnitedUnitedUnitedUnited StatesStatesStatesStates Code,Code,Code,Code, SectionSectionSectionSection 2656265626562656f(d)f(d)f(d)f(d)

• The term means “the intentional” use of, or threat to use violenceagainst civilians or against civilian targets , in order to attain political aims

Boaz Ganor, Boaz Ganor, Boaz Ganor, Boaz Ganor, Defining TerrorismDefining TerrorismDefining TerrorismDefining Terrorism

THE ENEMY(2/6)

Common points ;1. the use of violence2. political (social) aim or motivation 3. targets include civilians (noncombatants)

Terrorism can be generalized as

indiscriminate violence in order to achieve a polit ical objective

THE ENEMY(3/6)

Terrorism can be generalized asindiscriminate violence in order to achieve a polit ical objective

• THE DEFINITION OF THE ENEMY

This is still too broad .The suicide bombing by Hamas/Hizballah must match wi th this definition.

International society requested for Israel to withd raw from Palestinian

cities, last March.

United Nations, Security Council, United Nations, Security Council, United Nations, Security Council, United Nations, Security Council, Resolution 1402Resolution 1402Resolution 1402Resolution 1402

but

inconsistency

The terrorism as the enemy of the war :1. Method used is indiscriminate (mass) murder2. Objective is to challenge the current internatio nal order3. Organization is sizable and is a peer competitor a gainst nation states

Back to the objective

THE ENEMY(4/6)●●●● THE CHARACTERISICS OF THE ENEMY

Three characteristics:

ENEMY STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

1. The enemy has a criminal aspect .Domestically, terrorists have been treated as a kind of

criminal, because violence is illegal.

2. The enemy is a transnational organization .

3. The enemy is a sort of human “network” or a “network” with a radical value system .

THE ENEMY(5/6)●●●● THE ENEMY’S STRENGTH & WEAKNESSES

• STRENGTH

1. The enemy can act within the loopholes of multilate ral cooperation.

PLAN HIDEExecute

Country: A

Country: B

Country: C

2. Leaders & members of the organization cannot qui t and propose to change their strategy and tactics. ( change mind : treachery )

3. The enemy can find potential recruits and shelt er among the people , who do not approve violence but do have sympathy.(Northern Ireland, Basque)

4. There are a lot of groups which might join the enemy under specific conditions.(E.g. Abu Sayyef: before the war: foreigner was ta rget of kidnapping

after the war broke out: bombing targets on foreign er )

nonnegotiable, non-deterrable, sustainable

THE ENEMY(6/6)

• WEAKNESSES

The enemy needs continuously large scale or effective operations.

The bigger the operation they try to plan, the more conspicuous the movement makes them. (The more communication, more money flow, and more activities must be

required.)

In order to conduct a big operation, the enemy cannot keep its covert status and will hurt its strength.

We can hunt down the enemy.

ENEMY

THE STRATEGY (1/8)

We cannot deter the enemy. We cannot eliminate the enemy.We can huntdown (arrest or kill) the terrorists.

Strategy : Weakening the enemy to the level on which it can not conduct sizable & effective operation, by arresting or killing .

Model of attrition

●●●● BASIC CONCEPT

Hunting

GroupsGroups

GroupsThe People

(Pool of recruits)

Reducing the enemy’s pool of recruits& groups to join the network +

THE STRATEGY (2/8) ●●●● REDUCING ENEMY’S POOL OF RECRUITS AND THE GROUPS TO JOIN THE NETWORK

This approach must touch cultural issues or people’s values .

If you are explicitly told by anyone that‘your culture is bad, the level of your education i s lowyou are poor, and therefore you may join terrorist”,

what would be your response?

Before the reform is completed, some people may begin to feel sympathy for the enem y and join them.

To eliminate “the root cause” of poverty and premoder n political system(political, economical, social, educational reform/ aid)

• ENGAGING APPROACH : difficult

THE STRATEGY (3/8)

• MODERATE COURSE

To avoid the bad effect by activities, including the reform, to fight on te rrorism

Four groups of considerations

1. Engaging approach: avoiding the impression of co mpulsion• Change of culture or social system must be gradually realized through practice and experience of the people• It must be made clear that such an aid as education al and humanitarian aidwill be provided in response to the receiver’s request .

• The aid through NGO or an international organization such as UNICEF is better than that directly provided by a foreign gov ernment.

Continued on the next page• Government aid must not be flaunted in this case.

THE STRATEGY (4/8)

• MODERATE COURSE (cont.)

2. It must be careful to label a group as a part o r an ally of the enemy.Objective of the group must be examined. Clear evidence of the cooperation with the existing enemy must be required.

Absayeef became more radical after labeling. (?)Xinjian became relatively quiet after 9-11. (?)

Continued on the next page

3. Law enforcement efforts by a national governmen t are better received than measures that include military force.

Even if the military are employed, the mission should be taken over by domestic law enforcement agency as soon as possible.

THE STRATEGY (5/8)

4. A foreign policy, which may relate to terrorism but has an ambiguous must be carefully handled.

(Origin) NPT and regional stability issue → (after 9-11) linked to “terrorism”

People think this as just an excuse to justify the attack on Iraq.+

Sympathize with Iraq as the member of the same relig ious group.

antagonism toward the United States

antagonism : individual level → country level

(e.g Iraqi issue )

• MODERATE COURSE (cont.)

THE STRATEGY (6/8)

●●●● HUNTING DOWN THE ENEMY

In order to conduct a big operation, the enemy cannot keep its covert status.

What becomes noticeable ?a node of the network: a party of people including a local leader.a party of people including a local leader.a party of people including a local leader.a party of people including a local leader.

Hunting nodes is a practical way to weaken the enemy

Means: law enforcement, military, intelligence, finance etc

THE STRATEGY (7/8)

• LAW ENFROCEMENT

Law enforcement agencies must be the main force in home land .

• Terrorist node is usually criminal in nature in light of domestic law• The government should not use the military on its o wn people.• The law enforcement agency has the know-how to search facilities and arrest suspicious people without impacting on l ocal society.

The coalition needs to establish a network of law enforcement agencies.

In home land, the military must be support force .e.g. consequence management, equipment, intelligence

THE STRATEGY (8/8) • MILITARY

○○○○ Military becomes the primary force in the case that the enemy escapes into a nation, which harbors to the enemy, or where the enemy locate itself outside of areas of government contorol .○○○○ International cooperation is critical.

Necessity of access to the geographic theater & sus tainabilityCareless use of military may harm international coop eration

for the law enforcement efforts.

• Sharing a common definition of the enemy and sharin g information (intelligence) as proof of the enemy’s existence in the nation or area. • The use of the military must be decided by the inte rnational scheme or process.

STRATEGY: Model of Attrition

CONCLUSION(1/2)OBJECTIVETo secure the current international order from sizab le and indiscriminate

attacks from terrorist organizations.

Reducing the enemy’s pool of recruits andgroups which joining the enemy.

Hunting down the enemy’s node

Reform/Aid

Law enforcement

Military

International cooperation

Two conditions

ENEMY1. the method is indiscriminate (mass) murder2. the objective is to challenge the current intern ational order3. the organization is sizable and a peer competitor of a nation state

Four considerationsto avoid bad effect

CONCLUSION(2/2)●●●● WHAT SHOULD JAPAN DO?

As a member of international society, Japan should commit itself this campaign.

●●●● WHAT SHOULD JAPAN DO, IN THE CASE OF THE US UNILATE RALISM?

Japan should continue to support the United States.

• The more countries leave from the coalition, the we aker international cooperation will be.

• In the short term, there is no alternative for the security strategy of Japan.

This is only option for the Japanese government to take. Some people will strongly oppose it and begin to think of the necess ity of alternatives.

In the long term, this issue might be fatal for Jap an-US relations.

Japan should convince the US government to pay atte ntion to international cooperation.

Thank you.

Any Question?