strategist's handbook: chart updates · pdf filemarch 3, 2016 / strategist’s...

Strategist’s Handbook:Chart Updates

Yardeni Research, Inc.

March 3, 2016

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

March 3, 2016 / Strategist’s Handbook: Chart Updates www.yardeni.com


S&P 500 1S&P 500 Revenues & Margins 2Forward Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 3S&P 500/400/600 Forward Earnings & Margins 4Blue Angels 5Valuation 6-7S&P 500 Sectors Price Indexes 8S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings 9Corporate Finance 10Dollar & Commodities 11Stocks & Commodities 12Big Picture 13US Economic Indicators 14-15China 16-17Eurozone 18Oil Demand 19

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2014 2015 2016

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2020

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S&P 500 INDEX 2130.82

1862.49

2043.94S&P 500 (1993.40)

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Note: Dotted line shows 12/31/2014 close.

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Figure 1.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016500

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S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 2008-2016*

3/3

-56.8% (517)

-16.0% (70)

-19.4% (157)

-9.8% (28)

-9.9% (60)

-7.7% (62)

-5.8% (34)

-5.8% (19)

-6.9% (37)

-12.4% (96)

-13.3% (100)

* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of calendardays in parentheses.

200-day moving average.

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

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Figure 2.

S&P 500

Page 1 / March 3, 2016 / Strategist’s Handbook: Chart Updates www.yardeni.com


94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-25

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Dec

S&P 500 REVENUES & US BUSINESS SALES(yearly percent change)

S&P 500 Revenues* (-2.9)

Business Sales** (-2.7)

** Manufacturing and trade sales.* Using US dollars per share and based on companies in the S&P 500 index at the start of each quarter.

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

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Figure 3.

47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 192

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S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN & AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFIT MARGIN(without IVA & CCAdj)

Q4Corporate Profits After Tax*(as a percent of nominal GDP)

(blue line)Q3

S&P 500 Operating Profit MarginUsing TR Earnings**

(percent, quarterly, nsa)(red line)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

* After-tax profits as reported to IRS excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate thehistorical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.

** Operating Proft Margin derived using revenues from S&P and earnings from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 4.

S&P 500 Revenues & Margins



Figure 5.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017900

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S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual Revenues

Forward Revenues*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201750

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1516 17

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual Earnings

Forward Earnings*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20176

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S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent)

Consensus Forecasts

Forward Margins* (10.6)

Annual Margins

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

Forward Revenues, Earnings, & Margins



1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201710

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2/25S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS(dollars per share, ratio scale)

Forward Earnings*S&P 500 LargeCap (124.26)S&P 400 MidCap (83.04)S&P 600 SmallCap (38.25)

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 6.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20173

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S&P PROFIT MARGINS*(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent)

S&P 500 (10.6)S&P 400 (5.9)S&P 600 (5.2)

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 7.

S&P 500/400/600 Forward Earnings & Margins



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016600

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S&P 500, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION

S&P 50003/03/16

S&P 500 Blue AngelsImplied Price Index*02/25/16

* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 8.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017100

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ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATIONAll Country World Ex-US MSCI Index (In local currencies)03/03/16Blue Angels Implied Price Index*02/26/16

* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 9.

Blue Angels



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20178

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3/3

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(daily)

S&P 500 LargeCap (16.0)S&P 400 MidCap (16.7)S&P 600 SmallCap (17.3)

* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

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Figure 10.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20165

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MSCI FORWARD P/E(weekly)

Forward P/E*

EMU (13.0)Emerging Markets (11.1)

US (16.0)

Japan (12.1)UK (14.8)

Capped at 20

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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 11.

Valuation



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 175

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S&P 500 FORWARD P/E & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

S&P 500 Forward P/E* (15.7)

ConsumerComfort Index** (143.6)

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* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.** Index plus 100

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and BloombergBusiness.

Figure 12.

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.5

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STOCK MARKET CAPITALIZATION RATIOS

S&P 500 Market Cap(as a ratio of S&P 500 Revenues) (1.79)

US Equity Market Capitalization Ex Foreign Issues(as a ratio of nominal GDP) (1.53)

Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

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Figure 13.

Valuation



Figure 14.

Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDec Jan FebMarAprMayJun2015 2016

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3/3

CONSUMERDISCRETIONARY

S&P 500 sectorprice indexes


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3/3

INDUSTRIALS


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3/3CONSUMERSTAPLES


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INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY


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3/3

ENERGY


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3/3

MATERIALS


250

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3/3

FINANCIALS


125

150

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3/3TELECOMMUNICATIONSERVICES


700

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3/3

HEALTH CARE

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.


200

225

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275

3/3

UTILITIES

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S&P 500 Sectors Price Indexes



Figure 15.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20175

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4153

172/2515 16

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(S&P 500 forward earnings*by sector)

Annual consensusestimatesForward earnings

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201713

19

25

31

3717

2/251516INDUSTRIALS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201713

19

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CONSUMER STAPLES

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201715

27

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172/2515

16INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20175

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456585

105

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15 16ENERGY

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20176

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1516MATERIALS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20178

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2/2515 16 17

FINANCIALS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20177

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16TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201720

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HEALTH CARE

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201711

12

13

14

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16

172/25

15

16

UTILITIES

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S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings



0200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000220024002600

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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20163

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S&P 500 DIVIDENDS & BUYBACKS(billion dollars, annualized)

Buybacks

Dividends

S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS YIELD & CORPORATE BOND YIELD(percent)

Moody’s Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield (3.9)

S&P 500 Forward Earnings Yield* (6.4)

* Forward earnings (time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year) divided by S&P 500 index.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

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Figure 16.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016235

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Q2

S&P 500 EX-FINANCIALS TOTAL SHARES OUTSTANDING*(quarterly, billion shares)

* Total shares outstanding for current S&P 500 companies with data for all periods and adjusted for stock splits and stock dividends.Source: Yardeni Research and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 17.

Corporate Finance



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18200

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INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR

JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate**(inverted scale)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,

Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan.

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Figure 18.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201720

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BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR

JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate**(inverted scale)

Brent Crude Oil Futures Price*(dollars per barrel)

* Nearby futures price.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,

Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 19.

Dollar & Commodities



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

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EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in dollars)& INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX

Emerging MarketsMSCI Stock Price Index(in dollars)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau.

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Figure 20.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017300

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CHINA MSCI & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX

China MSCI Share Price Index(in dollars)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index(1967=100)

Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau.

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Figure 21.

Stocks & Commodities



18001810

18201830

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18601870

18801890

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100

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100CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*: 1800-1947

War of 1812(1812-1814)

Civil War(1861-1865)

WorldWar I(1914-1919)

WorldWar II(1939-1945)

* Base index from 1800 to 1947 is 1967 = 100.** 1982-84=100.

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the US.

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19481958

19681978

19881998

20082018

2028

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JanCPI**

Cold War(1946-1989)

Figure 22.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 180

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Jan

AGE WAVE & INFLATION

Inflation Trend**

Age Wave*

Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.** Five-year moving average of yearly percent change in CPI.* Percent of labor force 16-34 years old.

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Figure 23.

Big Picture



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20163500

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5600JanYRI EARNED INCOME PROXY & RETAIL SALES EXCLUDING GASOLINE

(billion dollars, saar)

YRI Earned Income Proxy*

Retail Sales ex Gasoline

* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52.Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

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Figure 24.

65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 1930

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68 Months1/08-10/13

33 Months2/01-11/03

23 Months7/90-6/92

25 Months8/81-9/83

32 Months11/73-7/76

19 Months10/69-5/71

30 Months5/71-11/73

61 Months7/76-8/81

82 Months9/83-7/90

104 Months6/92-2/01

50 Months11/03-1/08

JanCOINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS: RECOVERIES & EXPANSIONS*(2004=100, sa, ratio scale)

* Red horizontal lines span cyclical peaks through subsequent cyclical recoveries. Green horizontal lines are expansion periods following recoveries.Source: Conference Board, Haver Analytics, and YRI calculations.

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Figure 25.

US Economic Indicators



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201795

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Jan

ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & INTERMODAL RAILCAR LOADINGS

Railcar Loadings:Intermodal Containers(thousand units, 26-wa) (233.7)

ATA Truck Tonnage Index(2000=100, sa) (134.3)

Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic Systems.

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Figure 26.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 173.5

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CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: UNITED STATES & CANADA(million barrels per day, nsa)

US (9.5)

US + Canada (13.4)

US (9.1)(weekly)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Energy Information Administration.

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Figure 27.

US Economic Indicators



1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-10

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CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Industrial Production* (5.8)

PPI: TotalIndustrial Products (-5.3)

* Value added basis.Source: IMF International Financial Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics.

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Figure 28.

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 178.5

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CHINA: NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES & YUAN

Non-Gold International Reserves(trillion dollars, nsa)

Yuan/US$(inverted scale)

Source: International Monetary Fund and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 29.

China



97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-1300

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CHINA: NONGOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (12-month change) MINUSMERCHANDISE TRADE SURPLUS (12-month sum)(billion dollars)

Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 30.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170

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Jan

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BANK LOANS & MONEY SUPPLY(trillion US dollars)

China: Bank Loans (nsa) (14.7)

US: Bank Loans (sa) (8.7)

China: M2 (21.6)

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and People’s Bank of China.

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Figure 31.

China



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201660

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120EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONEXCLUDING CONSTRUCTION

Germany (Dec=108.5)

France (Dec=87.6)

Italy (Dec=80.7)

Spain (Dec=77.4)

Eurozone (Dec=96.5)

Source: Haver Analytics.

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Figure 32.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4

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14EUROZONE: CPI, M2, & LOANS AT MFIs*(yearly percent change)

CPI (Feb=-0.2)

M2 (Jan=5.4)

MFI Loans toTotal Private Sector (Jan=0.3)

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* Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Euro System of Central Banks (ESCB) and Money Market Funds (MMFs).Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.

Figure 33.

Eurozone



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S&P 500 REVENUES & WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND(yearly percent change)

S&P 500 Revenues(using dollars per share) (-2.9)

World Oil Demand(using 12-month average) (1.9)

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Institute Supply Management.

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Figure 34.

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18100

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600

Jan

Jan

GASOLINE SALES TO US CONSUMERS(billion dollars, saar)

Retail Sales of Service Stations

Personal Consumption Expenditureson Gasoline

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Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

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Figure 35.

Oil Demand



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