strategist's handbook: chart updates · may 17, 2020 / strategist’s handbook: chart updates...

Strategist’s Handbook:Chart Updates

Yardeni Research, Inc.

May 21, 2020

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

May 21, 2020 / Strategist’s Handbook: Chart Updates www.yardeni.com


S&P 500 Stock Price Index 1S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, Margins 2S&P 500 Revenues & Earnings Growth 3-4S&P 500 Revenues & Earnings 5S&P 500/400/600 Quarterly Earnings Growth Rates 6S&P 500 Forward Earnings & Blue Angels 7S&P 500/400/600 Valuation 8Investment Styles: Stay Home vs Go Global 9Investment Styles: LargeCaps vs SMidCaps 10Investment Styles: Growth vs Value 11Bond Yields 12Bond Yield Spreads 13Dollar & Commodities 14Inflation 15US Economy 16US Monetary Policy 17US Fiscal Policy 18China 19Eurozone 20Global Demography 21

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20211700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

5/20

S&P 500 INDEX(daily) 3386.15

2237.4

Latest (2971.61)

Source: Standard & Poor’s.Note: Dotted lines show previous years’ closing prices.

yardeni.com

Figure 1.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

27503000325035003750

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

27503000325035003750

S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 2008-2020(daily ratio scale)

5/20

-56.8% (517)

-16.0% (70)

-19.4% (157)

-9.8% (28)

-9.9% (60)

-7.7% (62)

-5.8% (34)

-5.8% (19)

-7.4% (27)

-12.4% (96)

-13.3% (100)

-10.2% (13)

-19.8% (95)

-6.8% (34)

-33.9% (33)

Note: Corrections are declines of 10% or more, but less than 20%, while minor ones are 5%-10% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of 20%or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 2.

S&P 500 Stock Price Index

Page 1 / May 21, 2020 / Strategist’s Handbook: Chart Updates www.yardeni.com


Figure 3.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

5/7Q1

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL(dollars)

Revenues Per Share52-week Forward*Actual (x4)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Q15/14

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL(dollars)

Operating Earnings Per Share52-week Forward* (141.0)I/B/E/S data (x4) (134.0)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

5/7Q1

S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN MEASURES(percent)

Operating Profit Margins52-week Forward* (10.3)I/B/E/S Data (9.9)

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next years. Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

yardeni.com

S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, Margins



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Q1

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(yearly percent change)

Latest (-0.4)

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Q1

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)*(yearly percent change)

Latest (-14.5)

* Due to extreme values, Q4-2008’s -65.2% is capped at -40% and Q4-2009’s +198.9% is capped at 60%.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

yardeni.com

Figure 5.

S&P 500 Revenues & Earnings Growth



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08

1011

12 13

14

15

18

19

20

21

09

16

17

yardeni.com

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

S&P 500 ANNUAL REVENUE GROWTH FORECASTS*(based on analysts’ consensus estimates, percent, weekly)

2007 (6.0)2008 (5.5)2009 (-7.7)2010 (8.9)2011 (9.9)2012 (1.5)2013 (1.7)2014 (3.1)

2015 (-3.7)2016 (1.9)2017 (6.4)2018 (8.9)2019 (4.1)2020 (-4.8)2021 (8.3)

Latest data thru 05/07/20

Figure 6.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

07

08

10

11

12 13 14

15

18

19

20

21

09 16

17

yardeni.com


S&P 500 ANNUAL OPERATING EARNINGS GROWTH FORECASTS*(based on analysts’ consensus estimates, percent, weekly)

2007 (-2.9)2008 (-15.3)2009 (2.0)2010 (44.1)2011 (14.9)2012 (6.0)2013 (6.1)2014 (7.0)

2015 (0.5)2016 (1.5)2017 (11.2)2018 (23.8)2019 (1.4)2020 (-21.5)2021 (28.2)

Latest data thru 05/07/20

Figure 7.

S&P 500 Revenues & Earnings Growth



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

20

21

19

Latest data thru 05/07/20yardeni.com

S&P 500 REVENUES & YRI FORECASTS

RPS* (Q1=1414.0)S&P Actual RPS

YRI Forecasts2019 (1415.20)2020 (1200.00)2021 (1350.00)

Consensus Forecasts2019 (1415.20)2020 (1323.18)2021 (1432.52)

* Four-quarter trailing sum of revenues per share.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 8.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202250

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

2021

19

Latest data thru 05/14/20yardeni.com

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS & YRI FORECASTS

EPS* (Q1=158.9)I/B/E/S Actual EPS

YRI Forecasts2019 (164.59)2020 (120.00)2021 (150.00)

Consensus Forecasts2019 (164.59)2020 (126.33)2021 (164.48)

* Four-quarter trailing sum of operating earnings per share.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 9.

S&P 500 Revenues & Earnings



Figure 10.

I II III IV I II III IV I II2019 2020 2021

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

COVID-19

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May 7 -15.2 -40.8 -23.2 -11.6 May 14 -14.5 -42.4 -24.3 -12.7

Q1

S&P 500 CONSENSUS QUARTERLY Y/Y EPS GROWTH 2020(consensus analysts’ estimates in percent, weekly)

Q2

Q3

Q4

2020 By Quarter as of 05/14/20


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

COVID-19

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May 7 -20.3 -58.6 -26.9 -13.6 May 14 -24.9 -64.3 -30.4 -15.9

Q1

S&P 400

Q2

Q3

Q4



-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

COVID-19

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May 7 -45.6 -74.9 -33.6 -9.8 May 14 -54.3 -82.4 -37.3 -11.5

Q1

S&P 600

Q2

Q3

Q4



yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Quarterly Earnings Growth Rates



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202250

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

COVID-19

2020 2021 Frwd May 7 128.02 166.03 141.91 May 14 126.33 164.48 141.00

19

2021

5/14

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnualForward*

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

yardeni.com

Figure 14.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

x10

x11

x12

x13

x14

x15

x16

x17

x18

x19

S&P 500, FORWARD EARNINGS, and VALUATION(weekly)

Actual 05/20/20Implied* 05/14/20

* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Weekly data start January 2007.

Blue Angels: S&P 500

Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

S&P 500 Forward Earnings & Blue Angels



Figure 13.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20228

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

5/20FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*(daily)

S&P 500 LargeCap (21.1)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20228

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

5/20

S&P 400 MidCap (20.0)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20228

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

5/20S&P 600 SmallCap (21.8)

* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Valuation



97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 233

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

5/20

5/20

STYLE RATIOS: US MSCI DIVIDED BY ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX US MSCI(daily)

US MSCI / ACW ex-USIn dollarsIn local currencies

Source: MSCI.

yardeni.com

Figure 14.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20225

10

15

20

25

5

10

15

20

25

5/7

MSCI FORWARD P/E(weekly)

Forward P/E*

EMU (14.9)Emerging Markets (12.2)

US (20.3)

Japan (13.6)UK (13.8)

Capped at 20

yardeni.com

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 15.

Investment Styles: Stay Home vs Go Global



.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

5/19

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.1

.2

.3

.4

.1

.2

.3

.4

5/19

S&P 600 DIVIDED BY S&P 500(daily)

STYLE RATIOS: S&P 400 DIVIDED BY S&P 500(daily)

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210

40

70

100

130

160

190

10

40

70

100

130

160

190

5/14

S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS(dollars per share, ratio scale)

Forward Earnings*S&P 500 LargeCap (141.00)S&P 400 MidCap (84.40)S&P 600 SmallCap (35.30)

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

Investment Styles: LargeCaps vs SMidCaps



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

5/20

STYLE RATIO: S&P 500 GROWTH DIVIDED BY VALUE(daily)

yardeni.com

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.

Figure 18.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5/20

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500 GROWTH & VALUE*(daily)

Growth (25.9)Value (16.5)

* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, then daily.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

Investment Styles: Growth vs Value



2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

5/20

5/20

5/20

10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS(percent)

10-Year YieldsGermany (-0.47)Japan (0.01)US (0.68)

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

5/20

10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD(percent, daily)

Yield (0.68)

yardeni.com

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 21.

Bond Yields



62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1970Penn

Central

1974FranklinNational

1980SilverBubble

1982Drysdale& Mexico

1984Continental

Illinois

1987Black

Monday

1990S&LCrisis

1994Mexican

Peso

1997Pacific

Rim

1998Russia& LTCM

2000Tech

Bubble

20019/11

Attacks 2007SubprimeMeltdown

2008Lehman & AIG

US YIELD CURVE* & FINANCIAL CRISES(basis points, weekly)

5/15

* 10-year US Treasury yield less federal funds rate.Note: Blue shaded areas denote periods of monetary easing between cyclical peaks and troughs in the federal funds rate. Red shaded areas denotemonetary tightening periods.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

YIELD SPREAD US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 10-YEAR US TREASURY BONDS(basis points, daily)

5/20

Spread (688)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 23.

Bond Yield Spreads



94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2280

90

100

110

120

130

140

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

5/20

5/20

S&P GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(daily)

Goldman SachsCommodity Index(nearby futures price)

JP Morgan NominalBroad EffectiveExchange Rate*

Source: Standard & Poor’s, JP Morgan, and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100

200

300

400

500

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

5/20

INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & COPPER FUTURES PRICE

Copper Futures Price**(cents per pound)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures contract.

Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

Dollar & Commodities



90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Mar

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR(yearly percent change)

PCEDHeadline (1.3)Core* (1.7)

* Excluding food and energy prices.Note: Dotted line is the Fed’s official target set during January 2012.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.

1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 195020

40

60

80

100

20

40

60

80

100CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: 1800-1947(annual data, 1967 = 100)

War of 1812(1812-1815)

Civil War(1861-1865)

World War I(1914-1918)

World War II(1939-1945)

Source: Census Bureau Historical Statistics of the United States.

yardeni.com

1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 20280

100

200

300

0

100

200

30019CPI: 1948-2019

(1982 = 100)

Figure 27.

Inflation



59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2325

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

68 Months1/08-10/1333 Months

2/01-11/03

23 Months7/90-6/92

25 Months8/81-9/83

32 Months11/73-7/76

19 Months10/69-5/71

30 Months5/71-11/73

61 Months7/76-8/81

82 Months9/83-7/90

104 Months6/92-2/01

50 Months11/03-1/08

Mar

COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS: RECOVERIES & EXPANSIONS*(2016=100, sa, ratio scale)

* Red horizontal lines span cyclical peaks through subsequent cyclical recoveries. Green horizontal lines are expansion periods following recoveries.Source: Conference Board, Haver Analytics, and YRI calculations.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2410

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

CMANUFACTURING PRODUCTION & CAPACITY

(2012 = 100, ratio scale)

Apr

Apr

ManufacturingProductionCapacity

yardeni.com

Note: C = China joined WTO on December 11, 2001. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 29.

US Economy



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.4

.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

5.2

5.6

6.0

6.4

6.8

7.2

.4

.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

5.2

5.6

6.0

6.4

6.8

7.2

QE1

QE1+

QE2 QE3

QE3+ QT RM

QE4

FED ASSETS*(trillion dollars, weekly)

5/13

Total Assets (6.9)US Treasuries+ Agency Debt+ MBS (5.7)

Note: QE1 (11/25/08-3/31/10) = $1.24tn in mortgage securities; expanded (3/16/09-3/31/10) = $300bn in Treasuries. QE2 (11/3/10-6/30/11) = $600bnin Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12-10/29/14) = $40bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended); expanded (12/12/12-10/1/14) = $45bn/month in Treasuries.QT (10/1/17-7/31/19) = balance sheet pared by $675bn. RM (11/1/19-3/15/20) = reserve management, $60bn/month in Treasury bills. QE4 (3/16/20-infinity).

* Fed data are averages of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday. Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 30.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

QE1

QE1+

QE2 QE3

QE3+ QT RM

QE4

FED ASSETS: LIQUIDITY-RELATED HOLDINGS*(trillion dollars, weekly)

5/13

Total Assets LessUS Treasuries+ Agency Debt+ MBS (1.2)

Note: QE1 (11/25/08-3/31/10) = $1.24tn in mortgage securities; expanded (3/16/09-3/31/10) = $300bn in Treasuries. QE2 (11/3/10-6/30/11) = $600bnin Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12-10/29/14) = $40bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended); expanded (12/12/12-10/1/14) = $45bn/month in Treasuries.QT (10/1/17-7/31/19) = balance sheet pared by $675bn. RM (11/1/19-3/15/20) = reserve management, $60bn/month in Treasury bills. QE4 (3/16/20-infinity).

* Fed data are averages of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday. Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 31.

US Monetary Policy



86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2200

-2000

-1800

-1600

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

-2200

-2000

-1800

-1600

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE(billion dollars, 12-month sum)

Apr

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: US Treasury Department.

yardeni.com

Figure 32.

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.7

1.1

1.5

1.9

2.3

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.9

4.34.75.15.55.9

.7

1.1

1.5

1.9

2.3

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.9

4.34.75.15.55.9

US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS & RECEIPTS(trillion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale)

Apr

Apr

Outlays (5.2)Receipts (3.3)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: US Treasury Department.

yardeni.com

Figure 33.

US Fiscal Policy



1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25CHINA RETAIL SALES & CPI(yearly percent change)

CPI (Apr=3.3)Retail Sales (Apr=-7.5)

Real Retail Sales* (Apr=-10.8)

* Yearly percent change in retail sales minus yearly percent change in CPI.Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 34.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Apr

Apr

Apr

BANK LOANS & MONEY SUPPLY(trillion US dollars)

China: Bank Loans (nsa) (22.9)US: Bank Loans (sa) (10.8)China: M2 (29.6)

Source: Federal Reserve Board and People’s Bank of China.

yardeni.com

Figure 35.

China



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Apr

Q1

EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR* & REAL GDP

Real GDP(yearly percent change) (-3.2)

Economic Sentiment Indicator*(long-term average=100, sa) (67.0)

* The overall economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is derived from the industrial (weight 40%), service (30%), consumer (20%), construction (5%), andretail trade (5%) confidence indicators.Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities, European Commission, and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 36.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202260

70

80

90

100

110

60

70

80

90

100

110

Apr

GERMANY: IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX*(2015=100, sa)

German Ifo IndexTotal (74.3)Current Situation (79.5)Expectations (69.4)

* Ifo introduced new series, which include services for the first time, drastically reducing the weight of the manufacturing sector within the measures.Source: Ifo-Institut Fur Wirtschaftsforschung.

yardeni.com

Figure 37.

Eurozone



1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20951

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8FERTILITY RATES*(children per woman)

2019 Values 2095 ValuesWorld (2.5) (2.0)US (1.8) (1.8)Europe (1.6) (1.8)Africa (4.5) (2.2)Latin Am** (2.1) (1.7)China (1.7) (1.8)India (2.3) (1.7)

Source: United Nations.

* Estimates through 2019 (solid line). Projections 2020 through 2095 (dotted line).** Including the Caribbean.

yardeni.com

Figure 38.

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20950

5

10

15

20

25

0

5

10

15

20

25WORLD: ELDERLY DEPENDENCY RATIO & PROJECTIONS(number of workers per senior)

2019 Values 2095 ValuesWorld (7.2) (2.7)US (4.0) (2.1)Europe (3.5) (1.8)Africa (16.1) (5.0)Latin Am** (7.7) (1.8)China (6.2) (1.7)India (10.5) (2.3)

* Estimates through 2019 (solid line). Projections 2020 through 2095 (dotted line).** Including the Caribbean.

Source: United Nations.

yardeni.com

Figure 39.

Global Demography



http://blog.yardeni.com

http://blog.yardeni.com

[email protected]

Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2020. All rights reserved. The informationcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is notnecessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, orcorrectness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the otherinformation provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted onwww.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps are issuedwithout regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needsof any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sellany securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guideto future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, butshould not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed asrecommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futurescontracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.

The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. andconstitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps may be downloaded, transmitted,broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwisedisseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent ofYardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from YardeniResearch, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietaryand intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. YardeniResearch, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/orto track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without furthernotice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civilremedies for the violation of its rights.

The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmittedby this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available onrequest.

strategist's handbook: chart updates · may 17, 2020 / strategist’s handbook: chart updates...

Documents