strategy last update 2015.01.10 1.2.0 copyright kenneth m. chipps ph.d. 2013-2014 1

Strategy

Last Update 2015.01.10

1.2.0

Copyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014 www.chipps.com

1

Strategy

• We will begin the course by considering what strategy is and why it is important

• To illustrate this we will look at an example from history

• For as we will see strategy is strategy whether in the military or the commercial realm

• Humans operate in the same way no matter what they do


2

What is a Strategy

• The source of all knowledge tells us that strategy is– A plan of action or policy designed to achieve

a major or overall aim• The source of all knowledge tells us that in

contrast tactics are– An action designed to achieve a specific end

or part of a strategy


3

What is a Strategy

• We will see an example of a strategy that failed because it was missing some important elements

• We will see an example of a strategy that succeeded because it both identified the important elements and correctly implemented the tactics required to carry out the strategy including altering some of the tactics based on circumstances


4

What is a Strategy

• What a strategy is and is not will be illustrated by an example from history

• In this case the world war in the 1930s and 1940s

• There were two major belligerents that precipitated the war– Japan– Germany


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What is a Strategy

• Germany had a minor belligerent that was supposed to assist it– Italy

• These countries were opposed by the Allied powers– Great Britain– USSR– The United States of America


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What is a Strategy

• The allies were assisted by two minor belligerents– China– France


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Japan

• Let’s begin with Japan• In the 1930s Japan had a problem with

two possible solutions• The problem was

– They needed natural resources such as oil, coal, rubber, and metals

• The solutions were– Buy what they needed– Take control of the resources by force


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Japan

• As this was the age of imperialism the solution in their view was simple, take what you need as everyone else already had

• Let’s see where their area of interest was


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The Pacific


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Resource Area

• This search for control of the resources they needed to drive a modern industrial economy began with securing a coal supply just across the Sea of Japan in Manchuria

• In addition to the coal in Manchuria the Japanese needed rubber, metals, and especially oil

• These resources were found hereCopyright Kenneth M. Chipps Ph.D. 2013-2014

www.chipps.com11

Resource Area

Coal

Oil

Rubber


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Barrier Area

• As the current owners of these resources might object, Japan had to create a second part to their strategy which was to secure both the resource area and prevent interference with the movement of the raw materials from the resource area to Japan


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Barrier Area

• This was to be achieved by creating an inner barrier on the islands they had controlled since the end of the European war from 1914 to 1918 and an outer barrier of islands to be secured at the beginning of the war


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Barrier Area

Establish a Multilayer

Barrier


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Barrier Area


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Barrier Area


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Resource Return Route

• The route to be used to return the resources from their location to Japan was this


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Resource Return Route

Coal

Oil

Rubber


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Resource Return Threat

• This route from the resource area back to Japan had two problems that required attention at the same time the resources themselves were secured

• The United Kingdom in addition to controlling the rubber in Malaya had a major naval base at the tip of Malaysia in Singapore


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British Naval Base


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• The stated strategy of the United Kingdom at that time was that if a threat to their interests in the area arose the main fleet would be dispatched to Singapore to counter any such threat

• Clearly Japan would have to secure that base and defeat that fleet


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• The United States did not control any of the resources the Japanese sought

• But they did control the Philippines• Even though these islands were to

assume self governance in 1946 the Japanese could reasonably expect that the US would maintain a significant presence there


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US Air and Naval Bases


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• These two threats would have to be eliminated


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Coal

Oil

Rubber


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Barrier Penetration Threat

• Lastly the US had recently moved their Pacific Fleet from San Diego to Hawaii

• This fleet was the most significant threat to penetrate the barrier to be erected around Japan and her resources

• It must therefore be eliminated or at least reduced


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The Strategy

Control The Resources

Remove The

Threat

Remove The

Threat

Establish a Multilayer

Barrier


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The Strategy

• In the view of both Japan and the US the war would be decided by a decisive battle

• In this decisive battle the US naval forces would advance on Japan

• Japanese submarine forces would attrite the US forces on their approach to the battle area


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The Strategy

• Japanese destroyer forces would then further reduce the US forces as they entered the inner area

• Finally Japanese heavy naval ships would inflict sufficient damage on the US naval forces that they would withdraw outside the outer barrier

• The US would at that point recognize that it would be too costly to defeat Japan


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The Strategy

• The US would agree to the control of the resource area by Japan


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The US Strategy

• The US had recognized the problem of the Japanese and the likely solutions to this problem for quite some time

• The Japanese strategy was also quite clear

• The problem for the US was how to counter that strategy


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The US Strategy

• The elements of the US strategy included– Stop the flow of resources to the Japanese,

such as oil sales from the US– Intimidate the Japanese into not seizing the

resources by increasing the size and the capability of the Pacific Fleet

• If these actions failed to work, then


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The US Strategy

– Solve the problem of controlling the sea and air space around the islands that constituted the outer and inner barriers so that each one could in turn be captured

– Solve the problem of how to land and sustain ground forces on these islands

– Solve the problem of how to keep the fleet in motion without forward bases as the Japanese would be in control of all of these


34

The US Strategy

– Solve the problem of how to prevent the resources from reaching Japan

– Secure bases near enough to Japan and develop an aircraft capable of preventing the Japanese from using any resources that did reach Japan from being used to create products of any type by bombing the plants that produced the products from the resources


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An Example of No Strategy

• In contrast to Japan and the US who both had clear and reasonable strategies ready to implement at the beginning of the Pacific War Germany during the same time period had similar economic problems as did Japan but had no facility or seeming desire to develop and carry out a strategy to solve this problem of a lack of natural resources, except for coal


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Germany

• Germany in the 1930s had desires and rages but no coherent strategy that would lead them to acquire what the sought

• Unlike Japan which had a direct route to the resources they needed Germany is essentially land locked


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Germany

• Despite having access to the sea along its northern border this route is easily cutoff by the use of naval and air power based in surrounding states

• This type of blockade was successfully carried out by the Western powers during the European war of 1914-1918


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Germany

• For example


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Germany


40

Germany

• Germany decided that it could acquire what it needed by either ensuring it could retain access to the trade routes that passed through the North Sea

• Or - or should it be and• By securing these resources from the

Soviet Union


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Germany

• Due to the aberrations the ideological basis of the German government produced, trading for these resources was never even an option Germany considered

• Taking these resources by force was then the only choice in the German view

• Germany planned for a war that was to commence in 1945 or 1946


42

Germany

• They found themselves in a war in 1939• The result was their only fully developed

armed force was an army capable only of ground and air operations on the European continent


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Italy

• To supplement this lack of forces Italy was supposed to use its naval forces to secure access to the Mediterranean Sea


44

Great Britain and France

• Opposing Germany and Italy was France and Great Britain

• They first attempted to prevent German expansion by buying off the Germans by trading small countries for peace


45

USSR

• The USSR attempted to prevent German expansion by providing the resources Germany needed through trade


46

Why Did These Strategies Fail

• Despite one country having a complete and coherent strategy neither Japan not Germany were able to prevail

• Further the opposing powers of Great Britain France and the Soviet Union were unable to prevent a general war from breaking out

• Why


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• In essence a failure to understand the true nature of the world they were operating in


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• Such as– Failure to assess all possible risks– Failure to examine basic facts about an

opponent– Failure to understand what the term total war

means– Failure to understand the capabilities of a

modern industrialized society when fully mobilized


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– Assuming weaknesses in their opponents not based in fact

– Inattention to intelligence gathering– Inattention to logistics

• Let us examine each of these for both countries


50

Japan

• Failure to assess all possible risks– The entire emphasis of the Japanese military

was the offensive– They gave no thought to the need for defense– This resulted in

• An inability to move the resources from their origin to Japan due to a failure to develop a merchant shipping protection method

• A failure to have aircraft or antiaircraft devices that could reach the altitude at which the B-29 operated


51

Japan

• Failure to examine basic facts about an opponent– Even a cursory examination of just the

demography of each nation would have suggested to the Japanese that their venture was doomed to failure


52

Japan

– For example in 1940 the population of the potential belligerents looked like this

• Japan - 73 million

• US – 132 million• UK – 45 million• France – 40 million• The Netherlands – 9 million• Total – 226 million


53

Japan

• Total war and the nature of a modern industrialized society when fully mobilized– Assuming the war with at least one and likely

both Japan and Germany was inevitable the US preceded to do the following before the war• Two Ocean Navy Act• The Draft


54

Japan

– From 1941 to 1945 Japan and the US produced the following• Aircraft production

– Japan – 76,000– US – 325,000

• Merchant ship production– Japan – 4,000,000 tons– US – 34,000,000 tons

• Naval ship production– Japan - 440– US – 1,191


55

Japan

• Assuming weaknesses in their opponents not based in fact• Despite the obvious demographic and

industrial disadvantages Japan would have in a war with the combined forces of the US, UK, France, and Holland the Japanese assumed their superior spirit would overcome this

• The opposing forces, in particular the US, were assumed to be weak and easily frightened by high losses of men and material


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Japan

• Inattention to intelligence gathering– Japan did not suffer from this failure– They were reasonably aware of the military

capabilities and weaknesses of the US


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Japan

• Inattention to logistics– Japan paid little to no attention to this critical

component of a successful military operation except for the opening operations


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Japan Should Have

• What should Japan have done instead of what they did

• Good question• Within the age of imperialism the strategy

they developed was not unreasonable• They just assumed away to many of the

threats instead of dealing with them


59

Germany

• The same factors caused the German defeat

• Failure to assess all possible risks– The German military has never had any

conception of strategy– They have always had excellent tactics, just

no context in which to place those tactics– This caused them to discount many risks to

their plans


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Germany

– Such as• The ability of a nation to invade a country directly

across an ocean as in the invasion of Africa from the US

• The ability to conduct a strategic bombing campaign that would target critical points based on economic analysis such as attacks on transportation and refining

• The ability of a nation to overwhelm superior technology with production

– Panther Tiger v Sherman– ME-262 v P-51


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Germany

• Failure to examine basic facts about an opponent


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Germany

– For example in 1940 the population of just the larger potential belligerents looked like this• Germany - 87 million

• UK – 45 million• France – 40 million• USSR – 197 million• US – 132 million• Total – 414 million


63

Germany

• Total war and the nature of a modern industrialized society when fully mobilized– Like Japan Germany had no concept of what

total war meant– They failed to fully mobilize their industrial

base– The wasted resources on pointless projects

such as• V1 and V2• Panther and Tiger tanks


64

Germany

– From 1941 to 1945 Germany and the Allied nations produced the following• Aircraft production

– Germany – 120,000– UK – 131,000– US – 325,000– USSR – 158,000

• Armored vehicle production– Germany – 50,000– UK – 20,000– US – 100,000– USSR – 106,000


65

Germany

• Assuming weaknesses in their opponents not based in fact• Despite the obvious demographic and

industrial disadvantages Germany would have they assumed their superior tactics and spirit would overcome this

• The opposing forces, in particular the USSR and the US, were assumed to be weak and easily frightened by high losses of men and material


66

Germany

• Inattention to intelligence gathering– The Germans assumed, they did not collect

and analyze, that the maximum number of divisions the USSR could create was 100

– The USSR created almost 600 during the war in addition to the hundreds that existed

– Constantly during the war the Germans stated that the USSR was out of reinforcements

– They continued this until 8 May 1945


67

Germany

• Inattention to logistics– The best summary statistic that demonstrates

the appalling lack of preparation by Germany to fight a modern mobile war that would be fought on a worldwide basis is a comparison of the number of horses they used to the number used by the US• Germany – 2,750,000• US - 0


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Germany Should Have

• What should Germany have done instead of what they did

• Within the context of European history the war was likely inevitable

• Once begun trade should have continued with the USSR while the UK was isolated by using the Mediterranean strategy

• War should never have been declared against the US


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Germany Should Have

• The territories between Poland and Russia that had been incorporated by force into the USSR should have been turned on the Russians

• Once the Mediterranean Sea was turned into an Axis lake there would have been no need, other than ideological, to attack the USSR for their resources


70

Germany Should Have

• There was never any hope that Germany would perform a rational analysis of their situation and develop a strategy based on that analysis as they did after the war

• That analysis resulted in the current German approach of supplying high quality products to a global market through a free trade system


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Germany Should Have

• The irrational ideological basis of the German political system as well as the desire for revenge prevented this type of analysis


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Rephrasing These

• We accessed a military strategy using these questions– Failure to assess all possible risks– Failure to examine basic facts about an

opponent– Failure to understand what the term total war

means


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Rephrasing These

– Failure to understand the capabilities of a modern industrialized society when fully mobilized

– Assuming weaknesses in their opponents not based in fact

– Inattention to intelligence gathering– Inattention to logistics


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Rephrasing These

• To make it more clear we can rephrase these slightly to apply them directly to business rather than military strategy

• This results in their reading as– Failure to assess all possible risks – What

risks does the organization’s strategy entail?– Failure to examine basic facts about an

opponent – Do you clearly and completely know what our competition is capable of


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Rephrasing These

– Failure to understand what the term total war means – If we want to control the market for our product what must we be prepared to do

– Failure to understand the capabilities of a modern industrialized society when fully mobilized – What assistance will our competitor receive from their home government


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Rephrasing These

– Assuming weaknesses in their opponents not based in fact – Assuming away problems just because we do not known how to deal with them

– Inattention to intelligence gathering – See above, do we really know what is going on in our industry


77

Rephrasing These

– Inattention to logistics – Is does us no good to design the best product in the world if we cannot build it and ship it to those who sell it fast enough


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strategy last update 2015.01.10 1.2.0 copyright kenneth m. chipps ph.d. 2013-2014 1

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