strategy of state atomic energy · strategy of state atomic energy corporation ... nuclear energy...
TRANSCRIPT
Strategy of State Atomic Energy
Corporation “Rosatom” till 2030
June, 2012
Karavaev I.A.
Chief Strategy and Investments Officer
www.rosatom.ru
By 2030, nuclear power generation is expected to keep pace with global energy demand
1Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2011
• Significant share in the power balance
• Emissions of CO2 and nitrogen&sulphur
oxides
• Volatile prices on fossil fuels
• High costs ( 2-6 times more than nuclear
energy)
• Low load factor
• Development of electricity transmission
and storage technologies
Thermal energy
• Large scale electricity supplies in base
load
• Absence of emissions of CO2 and
nitrogen&sulphur oxides
• Low operating costs (including fuel)
compared with thermal energy
Renewables
Nuclear energy
Electricity generation by types‘000 TWh
Development drivers
31,9
20302025
14%
24%
62%
28,8
61%
24%
15%
2020
25,4
61%
25%
15%
2015
22,6
63%
23%
14%
2008
19,2
67%
19%
14%
fact forecast forecast forecast forecast
2,5%
3,3%
2,0%
2,3%
CAGR
Thermal
Renewable
Nuclear
www.rosatom.ru
Within a year after Fukushima majority of the countries confirmed nuclear power development plans
2
Complete refusal from nuclear
power with accelerated
decommissioning
Refusal/freezing of new
reactors construction plans
Confirmation of previous plans
on nuclear power development
Increased activity in nuclear
power development
Changes in official positions of
countries on nuclear power
development, March 2011 – May 2012
Source: Rosatom analysis
447
-3%
2012
435
385
50
Temporary
shut-down
50
Final
shut-down
12
2011
Reactors in operation
New reactor projects
194216
11
Freezed 2012
-10%
Refusal
11
2011
South Africa
Venezuela
Germany
ItalyTurkey
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia
Kazakhstan
Vietnam
Japan
Belgium
Switzerland
Taiwan
Philippines
Slovakia
www.rosatom.ru
Steady growth of nuclear power will be accompanied by development of nuclear related segments
3
Nuclear market segments in 2011-2030,
bln USD
CAGR
2011- 2030
2%3% 1%4% 7%7%
• All nuclear markets are expected to grow until
2030
• Radiation management and SNF
reprocessing are likely to grow at the highest
rate:
o Radiation management nuclear
technologies may be used in the sphere of
ecology waste destruction, nuclear
medicine, radiation centres, security
systems and nondestructive testing
o SNF reprocessing allows to solve the
problem of nuclear wastes condition to
development of reprocessing technologies
and breeders
Source: Rosatom estimations
31718
31
69
133
92622
53
267
300
Front end
of fuel cycle
Service SNF
reprocessing
and
secondary
fuel
Nuclear
generation
NPP
construction
Radiation
manage-
ment
2011
2030%
www.rosatom.ru
Rosatom strategy implies transformation into the global market leader through development of new segments based on conventional markets
4
2006 – 2011 2012-2020
Implementation of NPP
construction programme in
Russia, increase in foreign
presence to support global
business development
Growing operating efficiency
Choice between key technology
options
Innovative businesses
development
Bid formation
Assets consolidation
Staffing
Quantification of new
strategic goals
2020-2030
Creating conditions
for growth
Controlled
breakthrough
Accelerated
development
Retention of positions
in conventional
markets
Development in the
role of the global
technology leader
Global
technological
leader
www.rosatom.ru
The objective of Rosatom global leadership is specified in key 2030 target indicators
5
Technological leadership
Investments in new projects up to $3 bln per
year
Launch of IV generation reactors (breeders)
R&D commercialization
1
Global presence
Top-3 in all key nuclear market segments
Scale
Business scale which can be compared with
nuclear leaders
3
2
Target goal for 2030
Nuclear generating
capacities2,5 times
growth
Foreign assets
share
Revenue 5 times
growth
Share of new
products40%
25%
R&D expenditures4,5% of
revenue
Foreign operations
share50%
Corporate goals
Brand
awarenessTop-100 in
the world
NPP construction
abroadLaunch of
30 units
www.rosatom.ru
R&D development is one of the key Rosatom priorities for 2012-2030
6
Share of R&D expenses in revenue, %
Source: The 25 Most Innovative Companies 2010, Bloomberg BusinessWeek
R&D expenses and share of new products in
revenue4,5
4,1
3,5
3,0
2,1
0,6
0
1
2
3
4
5
From
20122006
40%
30%
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
10
20
30
40
2030
3,4
2020
2,1
2011
0,6
4%
% of new products in
revenueR&D expenses, $ bln
• Share of R&D expenses in the revenue the Corporation has reached the leading global technological companies
• The objective of the Corporation is to enter Top-20 leading innovative companies. That will require annual R&D
expenses at least at the level of 4,5% of revenue
• Taking into account growing R&D expenses Rosatom is planning to increase its share of new products in revenue up to
40% by 2030
www.rosatom.ru
Growth of NPP construction projects, development of foreign operations and assets are expected to support Rosatom global presence
7
Existing / under
construction
Potential projects
NPP of Russian design:
Capacities localization,
production development
Export of fuel cycle
products and services and
NPP services
Alliances/ strategic
partnerships
2030
25%
2011
8%
Share of revenue from foreign
operations
Agreements concluded
Tender / negotiations
Potential
May, 2012
78
1920
39
2030
50%
2011
33%
Share of revenue from foreign
assets
NPP construction project portfolio
on foreign markets (ЕРС and ВОО)
Russia
Argentina
Canada
USA
Australia
India
Turkey
Armenia
Kazahstan
ChinaJapan
Vietnam
Jordan BangladeshEgypt
South
Africa
Iran
South
Korea
Mongolia
Brazil
Eastern
Europe
Western
Europe
Malaysia
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia
Tanzania
Mexico
www.rosatom.ru
Rosatom will increase its power generation through construction of NPPs in Russia and BOO projects abroad
8
5 5
14 14
2030
65
46
BOO projects
abroad
New
construction
in Russia
36
Decommissioning
in Russia
15
2011
25
25
Rosatom nuclear installed capacitiesGW
• By 2030, nuclear generation share
in Russia will increase from 17% to
23%
• Confirmed BOO projects: Akkuyu
NPP in Turkey (4хVVER-1200)
• Potential BOO projects: Jordan,
Hungary, Slovakia, South Africa
Russia
ВОО abroad: confirmed projects
BOO abroad: potential
www.rosatom.ru
By 2030 Rosatom is expected to approach global leadership among nuclear generating companies by installed power capacity
9
TEPCO
Energoatom
Exelon
Kansai
KHNP
Rosatom
EDF 63
15
25
13
19
12
9
TOP-7 nuclear generating companies 2011,GW (NPP installed capacity)
Source: IAEA PRIS, Rosatom estimations
Rosatom
CNNC
CGNPC
KHNP
EDF
NPCIL
CPI
22
21
39
40
40
51-65
56-64
TOP-7 nuclear generating companies 2030,GW (NPP installed capacity)
www.rosatom.ru
Rosatom is increasing profitable resource base to provide NPPs under construction with fuel
10
47
6575
86
125
Denison Uranium OneCamecoERAPaladin
Uranium One (Rosatom foreign uranium assets) has the lowest production costs among public non-diversified uranium producers
Rosatom is increasing uranium reserves and resourceswith low production cost
Reserves and resources (000 tons)
with production cost < 80$ per kg
Production cost,
$ per kg
272
174
109
310
20102009 20112008
www.rosatom.ru
By 2030 Rosatom consolidated revenue can reach $75 bln
11
Revenue, bln USD (2010 prices)
2011
15
2020 20302006
8
fact forecast forecastfact
51%
12%
32%
2% 2%
46%
16%
22%
11%4%
48
75
48%
38%
7%5%
3%
60%32%
8%
New businesses NPP construction, nuclear power equipment
Front end of nuclear fuel cycleNuclear generation and electricity retail
Other revenue