National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s

National Weather Service

Streamflow Regulation Projects

3.1 Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterPleasant Hill, MO

Fourth Annual Missouri Basin RiverForecaster’s Meeting20-21 February 2013

Gregg Schalk, P. E.

Senior Hydrologist

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s

National Weather Service

Streamflow Regulation FY12 Projects

3.2 Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterPleasant Hill, MO

Complete FY12o RES-SIM model completed for 7 reservoirs in the Lower Kansas Basino Implement operationally by EOF FY13

• AHPS Long-Range Probability Outlooks for all the Kansas Basin forecast points

o Model and Report given to KCCOE, RES-SIM -> Report availableo Model extended with internal scripts – Downstream Control

Representation (channel capacities)• Model computational times (30 minutes compared to 4 hours for a 50-year

run).• Balancing algorithm specified in the water control manuals cannot be

specified using the built-in balancing functions. o Reservoirs modeled according to the rules specified in the water

control manuals, with the exception of the lower 5% of the flood control pool where there is greater operational flexibility.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s

National Weather Service

Streamflow Regulation FY13 Projects

3.3 Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterPleasant Hill, MO

Current Projects FY13o Diversion Modeling and runoff modeling in the Upper Missouri above

Canyon Ferry• Model biased when diversions not accounted for

o Update of 7 North Platte River Reservoirs Models• COE Silver Jackets Project• Lake McConaughy will be modeled with RES-SIM• Updated RES-J model for the other 6 reservoirs

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s

National Weather Service

Streamflow Regulation Future Projects

3.4 Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterPleasant Hill, MO

Planned Projects FY14 (Pending Funding; Contractor)o RES-SIM models for 6 Reservoirs in the Upper Missouri including

Canyon Ferry. Future Projects - Numerous reservoirs to be modeled and

numerous diversion reacheso Below Canyon Ferry and above Ft. Peck Res MT (Reservoir and

Diversion Models) o Osage Basin KS/MO (7 Reservoirs, Adapt COE developed model)o Missouri Mainstem System MT/ND/SD (Adapt COE developed

model?)o Bighorn Basin WY (5 Reservoir and Diversion Models)o Lower Yellowstone MT (Diversion Models)o Pelican Lake SDo Update all existing Models like Upper James

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s

National Weather Service

Streamflow Regulation ProjectsWHY??

3.5 Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterPleasant Hill, MO

Why do we want to Model Streamflow Regulation??o Answer: Probabilistic Outlooks and Forecast

• HEFS – Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service– NWS, Office of Hydrologic Development new ensemble modeling approach to

produce short to long-term forecast and or outlooks.– Plugs into exist new CHPS/FEWS forecasting framework– Roll-out begins in FY14– Regulation models needed to capture full capability

o Concerns with Probabilistic Forecasts driven by Regulation Models• Reservoir models can produce unrealistic results• Coordination like 2011 event on Mainstem nearly impossible• Deterministic vs. Probabilistic forecast

o Pros with Probabilistic Forecasts driven by Regulation Models• Captures Uncertainty (Temperature/Precip; Model parameter and

structure), Range of possible scenarios• Decision Support Tools – NYC Dept Environment Protection developing

Operational Support Tools to use HEFS information

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s

National Weather Service

Streamflow Regulation ProjectsMethods

3.6 Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterPleasant Hill, MO

What Methods for Modeling Streamflow Regulation??o Answer: Consumptive Use for diversion regulation –

includes canal capacities and availability models.o Answer: All Future Reservoir models done with RES-SIM

• Use existing COE developed models• Model Limitations extended by internal scripting capability

Regulation Modeling – Community effort needed for the best possible model:o Contractor supporto Review of model approacheso Community Model approach – shared model

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s

National Weather Service

HEFS ComponentsHow do they fit together?

MEFP

Weather/climate forecasts

Forcing input ensembles

Hydrologic Ensemble Processor

EVS

Post- processed

Input flow data

Graphics Generator

Verification products

Ensemble products

“Raw”

EnsPost

flow ensembles

Initial conditions and model parameters

(e.g. DA)

Data Assimilator - possible post HEFSv1

enhancement

MEFP PE

MEFPParameters

EnsPost PE

EnsPostParameters

Time series

3.7

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s

National Weather Service

Questions?

?3.8 Missouri Basin River Forecast Center

Pleasant Hill, MO