strictly private and confidential 1 mrq seminar 23 may 2012

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ctly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

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Page 1: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

Strictly private and confidential 1

MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

Page 2: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

Strictly private and confidential 2

Disclaimer

IMPORTANT NOTICE

 This presentation and any accompanying management discussion of this presentation (the "Presentation") are confidential and being given by Kea Petroleum Plc (the "Company"). This Presentation has not been approved by an authorised person in accordance with Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 ("FSMA") and therefore it is being delivered for information purposes only to a very limited number of persons and companies who are persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments in the United Kingdom: (i) that the Company reasonably believes are of a kind described in either article 19(5) (investment professionals) or article 49(2)(a) to (d) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005; or (ii) to whom it may otherwise be lawfully given, (all such persons together being referred to as "relevant persons"). This Presentation must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this Presentation relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.

No offer or invitation or solicitation of any offer to acquire securities of the Company or any new company to be established at the Company's direction is being made at this time in any jurisdiction nor does this Presentation constitute or form a prospectus or part of any invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the FSMA).

No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information or opinions contained in or given during this Presentation. The information and opinions contained in or given during this Presentation are provided as at the date hereof, are not necessarily complete and are subject to change without notice. No representation, warranty or undertaking is given by or on behalf of the Company or Royal Bank of Canada Europe Limited trading as ‘RBC Capital Markets’ ("RBC") or their respective directors, officers, shareholders, employees, agents and advisors as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information or opinions contained in or given during this Presentation and no liability is accepted or incurred by any of them for or in respect of any such information or opinions, provided that nothing in this paragraph shall exclude liability for any representation or warranty made fraudulently. RBC does not have any authority to make any representation or warranty on behalf of the Company or any other person connected with the Company.

The contents of this Presentation are confidential and must not be copied, published, reproduced, distributed or passed in whole or in part to others at any time by recipients and its contents are confidential. This Presentation is being provided to recipients on the basis that they keep confidential any information or opinions contained herein or otherwise made available, whether oral or in writing, in connection with the Company. In particular, this Presentation should not be distributed, published or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by recipients and, in particular, should not be distributed to United States residents, corporations or other entities, US Persons (as defined in Regulation S promulgated under the United States Securities Act of 1933 (as amended)), persons with addresses in the United States of America (or any of its territories or possessions), Canada, Japan, the Republic of Ireland, the Republic of South Africa or Australia, or to any corporation, partnership or other entity created or organised under the laws thereof, or in any other country outside the United Kingdom where such distribution may lead to a breach of any law or regulatory requirement.

This presentation may be provided to recipients in New Zealand, and if so is directed only at persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money within the meaning of section 3(2)(a)(ii) of the Securities Act 1978 (New Zealand), acting as principal and not on behalf of others, and persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. It is not, and is not intended to contain or be associated with, any offer of securities to the public in New Zealand, and subscriptions will not be accepted except from those named investors to whom it is provided.

Each party to whom this Presentation is made available must make its own independent assessment of the Company after making such investigations and taking such advice as may be deemed necessary. Statements, beliefs and opinions contained in this Presentation, particularly those regarding the possible or assumed future financial or other performance of the Company, industry growth or other trend projections are or may be forward-looking statements, beliefs or opinions and as such involve risks and uncertainties. Certain statements contained in this Presentation constitute forward-looking statements. When used in this document, words such as “may”, “would”, “could”, “will”, “intend”, “plan”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “seek”, “propose”, “estimate”, “expect”, and similar expressions, as they relate to the Company, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Many factors could cause the Company’s actual results, performance or achievements to vary from those expressed or implied in this Presentation. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialise, or should assumptions underlying forward-looking statements prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described in Presentation as intended, planned, anticipated, believed, estimated or expected. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that the projected results, projections or developments will be attained. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given or made by the Company or any of its respective directors, employees or advisers or any other person as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on any projections, targets, estimates or forecasts or the statements, beliefs and opinions expressed in this Presentation and nothing in this Presentation is or should be relied on as a promise or representation for the future.

Neither the issue of this Presentation nor any part of its contents is to be taken as any form of commitment on the part of the Company to proceed with any transaction and the right is reserved to terminate any discussions or negotiations with any prospective investors. In no circumstances will the Company be responsible for any costs, losses or expenses incurred in connection with any appraisal or investigation of the Company.

RBC, which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, is acting in the provision of corporate finance business to the Company, within the meaning of the Financial Services Authority’s Conduct of Business Sourcebook. RBC’s responsibilities as the Company’s financial adviser are owed solely to the Company and not to any other person. RBC is acting exclusively for the Company and no one else in connection with this Presentation and will not regard any other person (whether or not a recipient of this document) as a client in relation to any matter, transaction or arrangement discussed or referred to in this Presentation and will not be responsible to anyone other than the Company for providing the protections afforded to its clients or for providing advice in relation to the content of this Presentation or any matter, transaction or arrangement discussed or referred to in it.

No recipient of or attendee at this Presentation should deal in or attempt to deal in or otherwise engage in any behaviour which would or might constitute market abuse (as defined in section 118 of FSMA) in relation to any securities or other qualifying investments to which this Presentation relates. This Presentation contains inside information and accordingly recipients of or attendees at this Presentation will not be able to deal in any securities of the Company before the information is made public in accordance with the insider dealing provisions of Part V of the Criminal Justice Act 1993. No individual within the Company, its associates or RBC is, by virtue of making this Presentation, encouraging recipients of or attendees at this Presentation to deal in accordance with section 52(2)(a) of the Criminal Justice Act 1993

By agreeing to attend or receive this Presentation you: (i) represent and warrant that you are a relevant person; and (ii) agree to the foregoing (including, without limitation, that the liability of the Company, RBC and their respective directors, officers, employees, agents and advisors shall be limited in the manner described above). IF YOU ARE NOT A RELEVANT PERSON OR DO NOT AGREE WITH THE FOREGOING, PLEASE IDENTIFY YOURSELF IMMEDIATELY.

 

Disclaimer

Page 3: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

Strictly private and confidential 3

• AIM IPO February 2010

• Four exploration permits: three onshore and one offshore in the Taranaki Basin

• Onshore: 100% interest in three petroleum exploration permits, totalling 990 sq km (244,510 acres)

• Offshore: 100% interest in Taranaki exploration permit of 232.5 sq km (57,452 acres)

• Present best estimate prospective resources1 in the Taranaki permit areas exceed 1.92 TCF gas & 126 mmbbl oil/condensate

• Management team have considerable experience in this area and the geotechnical team were involved in a number of discoveries in the region

• Unique joint venture arrangement with Methanex

Overview of Kea Petroleum plc

1. P50 Recoverable

Page 4: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

Strictly private and confidential 4

Taranaki Basin: A Proven Hydrocarbon Province

• Taranaki Basin is the main focus for hydrocarbon E&P in New Zealand

• Home to Australia & New Zealand’s largest onshore oil field (McKee -55 MMbbl), two large onshore gas-condensate fields (Kapuni & Mangahewa), and a large nearshore gas-condensate field (Pohokura) adjacent to Kea acreage

• Oil discoveries have been recently developed offshore with the Tui & Maari fields along with development of the Kupe & Pohokura gas-condensate fields

• There are 18 onshore & 6 offshore fields producing from a number of stratigraphic levels

• Total proven producing reserves are in excess of 1 billion barrels oil equivalent

Page 5: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

Strictly private and confidential 5

Taranaki Basin

• Kea has four licences, with 9 prospects and P50 of 1.2 TCF of gas and 96 MMB of oil/condensate

Puka

Douglas

Huinga

Tunnel

Tuihu East

Angus

Autawa

McKee

Mangahewa

Pohakura

Tariki

Ngaere/Waihapa

Cheal

Copper Moki

Mangatoa

Mauku

Mercury

Page 6: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

PEP 51153: Puka-1 well site

Page 7: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

Strictly private and confidential 7

Puka-1: PEP 51153

• Oil strike April 2012 – Awaiting flow testing

• Targeting Mount Messenger sands – shallow and

deemed lower risk than Mauku-1 and Douglas-1

• Significant number of similar discoveries in

Taranaki, e.g.

• Copper Moki discovery (NZEC)

• Cheal field (TAG Oil) both within 5,000m of Puka

• Combined market cap of NZEC and Tag Oil US$833m

• Well costs – c. US$2.4mm including testing

Puka

Page 8: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

Composite Plot Puka-1 Mt Messenger Sand Pay

Page 9: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

PEP 51153: Douglas-1 well site

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• Tikorangi fractured limestone target intersected with full fluid loss. Together with shows of oil and gas. Testing has commenced.

• New seismic acquired in February funded jointly with Methanex assisted targeting of well

• 24 mmbbls of oil have been produced from the adjacent Waihapa/Ngaere field, from a fractured limestone reservoir; with individual wells producing at up to 10,000 bbls/d

• Douglas drilled from Wingrove site which has full production facilities

• Well costs – c. US$6mm including testing

Douglas-1: PEP 51153

Page 11: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

Waihapa-4 Douglas-1

Interpretation of KEA 53-12-01 PSDM

No vertical exaggeration

0

1

2

3

4

5

Km SS

Tikorangi Lst

Tikorangi Lst Murihiku

Murihiku

KapuniKapuni Taranaki Fault

OWC

West East

Page 12: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

PEP 51153 & 51155: Eastern margin Tikorangi Lmst sub-thrust prospects and leads

Douglas

Tuihu East

Piko

Hickman

Kea controls same 50km of eastern margin on

trend Tikorangi limestone play

Page 13: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

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PEP 52333 Mercury – offshore North Taranaki

• 3D seismic programme in Q2/2012 now deferred until

2013 awaiting seismic vessell

• Potential to discover up to 300 million barrels of oil

• Oil shows in offset wells

• 7km offshore, and drillable from onshore by EWD well

• Considered one of Company’s main assetsSeismic line

Page 14: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

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Mercury Fan seismic line (dip direction)

Herangi Unconformity

(Sw on Sl)

Mid Altonian (Pluto 1258m

Sand)

Mercury Sandstone

(Otaian)

Top Murihiku Basement(Jurassic)

Mars Thrust

Prospect Mercury

EW

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Strategic Alliance – Highlights Strategic Alliance – Highlights • Methanex to co-fund drilling of Mauku-1, on-

going discussions regarding other projects

• Methanex to receive share of profits from commercial discoveries

• Offtake gas price linked to world price of methanol

• Condensate price linked to world oil price

*Source: Methanex CIBC World Markets presentation January 2010*Source: Methanex CIBC World Markets presentation January 2010

Motunui facility*Motunui facility*

Waitara facility*Waitara facility*

Methanex Alliance Agreement & Mauku Deal

• Kea entered into a strategic alliance with Methanex during 2011

– Farm-in and offtake agreement

• Methanex Corporation (Canada) is the world's largest distributor, and a major manufacturer, of methanol – 15% world market share*

• Methanex New Zealand Limited owns two methanol plants in the province of Taranaki which are working at reduced capacity due to lack of gas. These plants have a maximum potential demand for gas of 90bcf/annum

Page 16: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

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Mauku-1: PEP 381204

• Possible upside potential recoverable resource > 1 TCF of gas and 50 million barrels of condensate / oil

• Drilling programme

– Test Mangahewa sands

– Deep drill to 3,400m in drill hole late Q4 2012 or early Q1 2013

– Remote coastal location

– Access to national pipeline system 25km south east of prospect. A 70km subsea pipeline direct to Methanex’s Motonui plant also feasible if upside discovery is made.

– Site preparation – challenging location – 20km of public road and 4km of new road access to be prepared

• Well costs – c. US$15mm before testing to be met 50/50 by Methanex

Page 17: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

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Kea Prospects: Gross Resource Potential

Prospect Permit

P50 Estimate P10 Estimate

POSBcf Mmbbls Bcfe Bcf Mmbbls Bcfe

2012 Drilling Campaign

Puka 51153 0 1 6 0 3 18 1/3

Douglas 51153 6 4 30 12 12 84 1/5

Mauku 381204 380 22 512 2,750 165 3,740 1/6

Total 386 27 548 2,762 180 3,842

Prospects in Development

Huinga-2 51153 160 5 190 650 40 890 1/8

Tuihu East 51155 16 27 178 40 40 280 1/8

Tunnel 51153 0 2 12 0 6 36 1/10

Mangatoa 381204 1,000 60 1,360 4,250 200 5,450 1/12

Autawa 51155 30 2 42 50 4 74 1/12

Total 1,206 96 1,782 4,990 290 6,730

Source: MBA Petroleum Consultants as adapted by Kea inhouse staffSource: MBA Petroleum Consultants as adapted by Kea inhouse staff

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Funding

• Kea is fully funded for its 2012 drilling programme

• Alliance with Methanex reduces drilling cost while retaining 100% ownership

Cash at Bank (30 November 2011) US$17.0mm

2012 Net Spend

Puka US$2.4mm (including completion and testing)

Douglas US$6.0mm (including completion and testing)

Mauku US$7.5mm (50% of total cost)

G&A US$0.8mm

2012 Total Spend US$16.7mm

Page 19: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

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• Oil / gas Reserves within 10 km of permits are similar for all three companies

• KEA & NZEC acreages are much more lightly drilled than TAG acreage

• KEA has no holdings in the non producing East Coast Basin where both TAG and NZEC are active

Conclusions

• KEA has 10 times more net prospective acreage in Taranaki than TAG, and twice that of NZEC

• KEA has 1/7 the Market Cap of TAG and 1/5 that of NZEC

• KEA has bigger prospects in Mauku and Douglas and Huinga than either TAG or NZEC

• Investment in KEA has greater upside potential than either TAG or NZEC

Company Taranaki acreage sq km (net/gross)

Share Price Market Cap

NZEC 615 / 856 C$2.28 US$277m

TAG 615 / 856 C$8.35 US$556m

KEA 1223 / 1223 £0.10 £50 m

All figures as at 22 May 2012

Listed Companies TAG OIL, NZEC & KEA

Page 20: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

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Capitalisation and Ownership Summary

Shares Outstanding 509,355,000

Market Capitalisation £50m

Current Price 10.12p

52 Week High / Low 13p / 4.125p

IPO 8.0p

Average Volume (30 day)

1,640,942

Top Shareholders Holding %

Thornaby Limited * 69,300,000 13.61%

Ocarina Investments Limited **

67,444,000 13.2%

Hardie Oceanic 29,230,769 5.7%

Rawson Taranaki 27,307,692 5.4%

Nigel Wray 26,875,000 5.3%

Marybourne Limited 22,500,000 4.4%

Management

Institutions

Retail

Other

*Thornaby Limited is a company wholly owned by the trustees of the IR Gowrie-Smith Settlement of which I R Gowrie-Smith is a beneficiary** Ocarina Investments is a company wholly owned by D J Lees Family Settlement of which D J Lees is a beneficiary

Page 21: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

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Summary

• Exciting 2012 drilling programme already successful

• Puka 1: Oil Strike awaiting flow testing

• Douglas 1: Oil shows completion and testing

• Farm-in and offtake agreed with Methanex

• At a transformational point

Page 22: Strictly private and confidential 1 MRQ Seminar 23 May 2012

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Kea Petroleum5-8 the Sanctuary

London, SW1P 3JS, United Kingdom tel +44 (0) 207 340 9970fax +44 (0) 207 222 6684

Kea Petroleum5-8 the Sanctuary

London, SW1P 3JS, United Kingdom tel +44 (0) 207 340 9970fax +44 (0) 207 222 6684