striving toward a circular economy for ......data related issues 7 striving toward a circular...

STRIVING TOWARD A CIRCULAR ECONOMY FOR PHOSPHORUS:

THE ROLE OF PHOSPHATE ROCK MINING & SUPPLY SECURITY FOR IMPORT-DEPENDENT COUNTRIES

Bernhard Geissler, Gerald Steiner, Ludwig Herman, & Michael Mew

contact:[email protected]

UNECE

Resource Management Week 2019

Genève, 30th of April 2019

mailto:[email protected]

TD LAB FOR SUSTAINABLE MINERAL RESOURCES

2Geissler et al. 2019

STRIVING TOWARD A CIRCULAR ECONOMY FOR PHOSPHORUS

Scientific Co-Lead Co-Leader Practice

Gerald Steiner(Danube University /CSH Vienna)

Michael C. Mew(CRU International)

Bernhard Geissler(Danube University)

Ludwig Hermann(ESPP and PromanConsulting)

Roland W. Scholz(Danube University / formerly ETH Zürich)

Michael Obersteiner(IIASA)

www.donau-uni.ac.at/smr-tdlab

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PART 1: The Extended P Supply Chain

PART 2: Supply Security for Importing Countries

PART 3: Circular Economy of P

PART 4: Best Practice Cases

3


Geissler et al. 2019

PART 1: THE EXTENDED P SUPPLY CHAIN

DYNAMIC NATURE OF RESOURCES

5

Geopotentialreserves and resources

of the future, unknown

at present

Resourcescurrently not

(economically) feasible

Reserves(economically)

feasible

dynamic

boundaries

virtual flow of stocks due to re-categorization

increasing (geological)

assurance

inc

rea

sin

g

ec

on

om

ic

(su

sta

ina

ble

)

fea

sib

ility

Geissler et al. (2019b) based on Wellmer (2008) / Wellmer and Scholz (2017) / Tilton and Lagos (2007)



EXTENDED PHOSPHORUS SUPPLY CHAIN (EPSC)

6



beneficiationexploration excavation processing use

soil erosion (mostlyon cropped soils) surface water run-off(mostly on grassland)food waste overfertilization (excess plant uptake of P)

PRE-MINING MINING POST-MINING

mining ratio beneficiation rate

agricultural use• fertilizer (MAP, DAP, TSP)• animal feednon-agricultural use• food additives, industrial use

quantities partly known quantities known

rock material below cut-off grade (economic profit + resource loss) & zero grade waste (no loss)==> in solid and effluent forms (e.g., clay)

drill tests, drill core analysis + further exploration methods of:

brownfield areas • on mine sites• close to known depotsgreenfield areas• unexplored territory• explored territory for

another commodity

reserves @ grade

ore @ grade concentrate @ grade

primarilyfertilizers

screening• washingseparation• grindingfurther treatment• flotation• chemical treatment

wet chemical processing to fertilizer (with phosphoric acid as major intermediate product)thermal processing toe.g., elemental P, high-purity acid, building blocks for industrial chemicals

quantities knownquantities mainly unknown

touched (above cut-off grade: economic + resource loss) &untouched (below cut-off grade: economic profit + resource loss)==> possibility of stockpiling for later processing (no loss, besides weathering over time)

open-pit (i.e. surface, open-cast) mining• draglines• bulldozers, trucks, pit-cars• blastingunderground mining• conventional

room mining• continuous mining transport

on-site / off-site e.g.,rail, truck, conveyor systems

transporton-site / off-site e.g.,rail, slurry pipelines, truck

transport e.g.,rail, trucks, plane, ship

planning• scheduling• economics• environment• legislative• social

primary physical mining efficiency (i.e., primary recovery rate)

secondary recovery rate

quantities partly known

at reserve, resource or geopotential levels(not considerable as losses)

use efficiencyexploration efficiency

URR

low grade P-material (additional: heavy metals, uranium and rare earth elements)

PH

ASE

SA

CT

IVIT

IES

LOSS

ES, W

AST

E +

OV

ERLO

OK

EDO

PP

OR

TUN

ITIE

S

INTE

R-

MED

IATE

SEF

FIC

IEN

CY

based on Steiner et al. (2015)

DATA RELATED ISSUES

7



$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00

$300.00

$350.00

$400.00

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

PR

pro

du

ctio

n [

mill

ion

to

ns]

USGS [DS140 historic series, reported in metric tons]

BGS [annual yearbooks converted to metric tons, since 1970 metric tons]

USGS [annual yearbooks converted to metric tons]

IFA [metric tonnes]

Price Series [USD, 1950$ index]

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015PR

pro

du

ctio

n [

mill

ion

to

ns]

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015PR

pro

du

ctio

n [

mill

ion

to

ns]

BGS USGS IFA

a)

b)

Long term PR production series, by data source Recent PR production by data source

Geissler et al. (2018a)Geissler et al. (2018a)

wo

rld

wo

rld

ex

Ch

ina

PART 2: SUPPLY SECURITY FOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES

PR MARKETS – A GLOBAL PICTURE

9



Geissler et al. (2018) Van Kauwenbergh et al. (2013)

Global PR production in 2015 PR deposits by type of origin

GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS

10



USA

Brazil

Russia

ChinaMorocco

South Africa

Jordan

36%

12%

2%

35%

14%6%

3% 3%

3% 1%

19% 15%

4% 4%

PR-M % Share of Global Production Capacity 2013

69%

54%

61%

66%

83%

64%

84%

83%

64%

74%

69%

69%

72% 74%

X %X%PR-M % Share of Global Production Capacity 1983

Benefication Ratio 1983 Benefication Ratio 2013

72%

61%

Others20% 23%

Major Producer

Steiner and Geissler (2016)

Minor Producer

CURRENT RESERVE SITUATION

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

GT

year

s

Global phosphate rock reserve-to-production and reserve base-to-production ratios

RPR RBPR Reserves Reserve-base

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

year

s

Country-based phosphate rock reserve-to-production and reserve base-to-production ratios

US (RPR) China (RPR) Jordan (RPR) Morocco (RPR)

Russia (RPR) US (RBPR) China (RBPR) Jordan (RBPR)

Morocco (RBPR) Russia (RBPR)

Geissler et al. (2019b)compiled from USGS data Geissler et al. (2019b)compiled from USGS data



MARKET CONCENTRATIONS 1/3

12

Geissler et al. (2019b)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

HH

I

HHI developments of reserves and reserve-base

HHI reserves HHI reserve-base




13


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

HH

I

Glo

bal

PR

co

nsu

mp

tio

n [

mill

ion

met

ric

ton

s]

Global PR volumes and corresponding HHIs based on BGS/ITC data

Total Production Total Imports Total ExportsHHI Production HHI Imports HHI Exports




14

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

HH

I

Glo

bal

vo

lum

e [m

illio

n m

etri

c to

ns

of

pro

du

ct]

Global PA volumes and corresponding HHIs based on Fertecon/CRU data

Total Production Total Imports Total Exports

HHI Production HHI Imports HHI Exports

Geissler et al. (2019b)Geissler et al. (2019b)



0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

HH

I

Glo

bal

vo

lum

e [m

illio

n m

etri

c to

ns

of

pro

du

ct]

Global DAP volumes and corresponding HHIs (country-based) on Fertecon/CRU data

Total Production DAP Total Imports DAP Total Exports DAP

HHI Production DAP HHI Imports DAP HHI Exports DAP

PART 3: CIRCULAR ECONOMY OF P

MACRO PERSPECTIVE: PHOSPHATE ROCK MINING – INNOVATION – NEXUS

16

Social

Ecological Economic

inter- and intragenerational fairness

within global boundaries shareholder responsibility

waste utilization

improving P2O5

recovery

sustainableinnovation

recovery of by-products




MICRO PERSPECTIVE: COST STRUCTURE BREAKDOWN 1/2

17

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

Hunnan Average Karatau

shar

e o

f p

rod

uct

ion

co

st e

lem

ents

[%

]

Other Consumables Energy Labor

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

Igneous Sedimentary

shar

e o

f p

rod

uct

ion

co

st e

lem

ents

[%

]


Geissler et al. (2019a) based on CRU data

Global comparison Weighted average: Igneous vs. Sedimentary




MICRO PERSPECTIVE: COST STRUCTURE BREAKDOWN 2/2

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

OCP Florida Jordan China/Yunnan

sha

re o

f p

rod

uc

tio

n c

ost

ele

me

nts

[%

]


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Kola U/g Kola O/pit S Africa Tapira Brazil

sha

re o

f p

rod

uc

tio

n c

ost

ele

me

nts

[%

]



Sedimentary Deposits Igneous Deposits




TOWARD A CIRCULAR ECONOMY

19

beneficiationexploration

Agricultural Phosphorus Use

Circle

recycling

processing

use

excavation

sustainable mine planning strategies

recovery of by-products e.g.,- uranium- rare earth elements

waste utilization of high-volume by-products(e.g., phosphogypsum)

improvement of P2O5recovery- tailings,

overburden, clay, etc.

- (improved) flotation processes

- ….

runoff to aquatic systempolicy on

recycled fertilizer

stock in soils

losses from recovery

?




PART 4: BEST PRACTICE CASES

JDC’S IMPROVED HARD PROCESS (IHP)

21

Blake (2017)



KHOURIBGA-JORF LASFAR PIPELINE

22

based on OCP S.A. (2017)



Jorf Lasfar Hub

Head Station

Settat Khouribga

El JadidaTerminal Station

primary pipeline: 187 km

secondary pipelines: 48 km

STRIVING TOWARD A CIRCULAR ECONOMY FOR PHOSPHORUS: THE ROLE OF PHOSPHATE

ROCK MINING

Bernhard Geissler, Gerald Steiner, Ludwig Herman, & Michael Mew

contact:[email protected]

UNECE

Resource Management Week 2019

Genève, 30th of April 2019

mailto:[email protected]

REFERENCES

24

• Geissler, B., Mew, M.C., Weber, O., Steiner, G., 2015. Efficiency performance of the world’s leading corporations in phosphate rock mining. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 105, 246–258.

• Geissler, B., Steiner, G., Mew, M.C., 2018a. Clearing the fog on phosphate rock data – Uncertainties, fuzziness, and misunderstandings. Science of The Total Environment 642, 250–263.

• Geissler, B., Hermann, L., Mew, M.C., Steiner, G., 2018b. Striving Toward a Circular Economy for Phosphorus: The Role of Phosphate Rock Mining. Minerals 8, 1087.

• Geissler, B., Mew, M. C., Matschullat, J., & Steiner, G. (2019a). Innovation potential along the phosphorus supply chain: A micro and macro perspective. Manuscript soon to be Submitted for Publication.

• Geissler, B., Steiner, G., & Mew, M. C. (2019b). Phosphate supply security for importing countries: Developments and the current situation. Manuscript Submitted for Publication.

• Tilton, J.E., Lagos, G., 2007. Assessing the long-run availability of copper. Resources Policy 32, 19–23.

• Reichl, C., Schatz, M., 2018. World Miningdata 2018. Austrian Federal Ministry of Sustainability and Tourism, Vienna.

• Mew, M.C., Steiner, G., Geissler, B., 2018. Phosphorus Supply Chain—Scientific, Technical, and Economic Foundations: A Transdisciplinary Orientation. Sustainability 10, 1087.

• OCP S.A. (2017). The Slurry Pipeline Revolution.

• Steiner, G., Geissler, B., Watson, I., Mew, M.C., 2015. Efficiency developments in phosphate rock mining over the last three decades. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 105, 235–245.

• Steiner, G., Geissler B., 2016. Developments and Efficiency Consideration in PR mining: Past – Present – Future. 5th Sustainable Phosphorus Summit. Kunming, China.

• Van Kauwenbergh, S., Steward, M., Mikkelsen, R., 2013. World Reserves of Phosphate Rock a Dynamic and Unfolding Story. Better Crops 97, 18–20.

• Wellmer, F.-W., 2008. Reserves and resources of the geosphere, terms so often misunderstood. Is the life index of reserves of natural resources a guide to the future?. Zeitschriftder Deutschen Gesellschaft für Geowissenschaften 159, 575–590.

• Wellmer, F.-W., Scholz, R.W., 2017a. Putting Phosphorus First: The Need to Know and Right to Know Call for a Revised Hierarchy of Natural Resources. Resources 6, 20.



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