strong motion attenuation relationship for pshms …assessment for the next generation map, november...
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2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
Strong Motion Attenuation
Relationship for PSHMs in Japan
Hongjun SI Kozo Keikaku Eng. Inc/ERI, Univ. of Tokyo
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Outline
Tectonics surrounding Japan
Strong motion observation network
GMPE for PSHMs in Japan
Applicability to worldwide data
About the 2011 Mw9.1 Tohoku earthquake
Summary
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Tectonics for Japan
… 2 …
Taira (2001)
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Seismicity along tectonic boundaries
… 3 …
By Bird (2003)
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Main earthquakes
… 4 …
The 2011 Tohoku earthquake
http://www. jishin.go.jp/
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
The types of earthquakes that occur in the Japanese archipelago and the surrounding area
http://www.hp1039.jishin.go.jp/eqchreng/f2-18.htm
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Strong motion observation networks in
Japan
… 6 …
After Midorikawa(2005)
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Si and Midorikawa (1999) for PGV Attenuation relation in Japan by Si and Midorikawa (1999)
where X, Mw show fault distance, and moment magnitude, respectively. D is focal depth represented by the depth of the center of a fault plane. d shows is defined as bellow:
http://www.hp1039.jishin.go.jp/eqchreng/f2-18.htm
29.1002.0)100028.0log(0038.058.0log 5.0 −−•+−++= XXdDMPGV wMw
d= 0.0 for crustal -0.02 for inter-plate 0.12 for intra-plate
Si and Midorikawa (1999) is defined on stiff ground with Vs30=600m/s
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Evaluating the effects on strong motion by the earthquakes with different tectonic setting, applicable to near source area
地殻内地震
最大
加速
度
cm/s
2
ACC.M w = 7.0Depth = 20 km
プレート間地震
プレート内地震
101 102101
102
103
地殻内地震
断層最短距離 km
最大速
度. c
m/s
VEL.M w = 7.0Depth = 20 km
プレート間地震
プレート内地震
101 102100
101
102
Effects of earthquake type
Fault distance km
PGA
cm
/s2
PGV
cm
/s
Intra plate
Intra plate Inter plate
Inter plate Crustal
Crustal
Attenuation relation in Japan by Si and Midorikawa (1999)
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Attenuation relation in Japan by Si and Midorikawa (1999)
Effects of focus depth
ACC.Mw = 7.0プレート内地震
最大加速度
cm
/s2
Depth = 30 km
Depth = 100 km
101 102 103101
102
103
VEL.Mw = 7.0プレート内地震
断層最短距離 km
最大速度
cm
/s
Depth = 30 km
Depth = 100 km
101 102 103
100
101
Evaluating the effects of focus depth and site effects on strong ground motion
Fault distance km
PGA
cm
/s2
PGV
cm
/s
Intra-subduction-plate Intra-subduction-plate
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Main Application of Si and Midorikawa(1999)
Earthquake Early Warning
… 10 …
After JMA
National wide hazard map
After NIED
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Crustal event: The 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge , California earthquake
P.G
.V c
m/s
M w = 6.69Crustal
Si and Midorikawa(1999) +/-σ=0.23
Fault distance km100 101 102 103
100
101
102
Fault distance km
P.G
.A c
m/s2
M w = 6.69Crustal
Si and Midorikawa(1999) +/-σ=0.27
100 101 102 103
101
102
103
Applicability of the GMPE in Japan to the earthquakes in the world 1
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Crustal event: The 2008 Mw7.9 Great Wenchuan, Sichuan, China
P.G
.A (
cm
/s2 )
Mw = 7.9 Si and Midorikawa(1999) +/-σ=0.27
Fault distance ( k m )
MZQ
WCWSFB
Soil Bed Rock
100 101 102
101
102
103
P.G
.V (
cm
/s )
Mw = 7.9 Si and Midorikawa(1999) +/-σ=0.23
Fault distance ( k m )
MZQWCW
SFB
Soil Bed Rock
100 101 102
100
101
102
Applicability of the GMPE in Japan to the earthquakes in the world 2
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Crustal event:
The 2010 Mw7.2 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
Crustal event:
The 1999 Mw7.62 Chi-Chi earthquake
Fault distance k m
P.G
.A c
m/s2
M w = 7.2Crustal
Si and Midorikawa(1999) +/-σ=0.27
100 101 102 103
101
102
103
Applicability of the GMPE in Japan to the earthquakes in the world 3
P.G
.V c
m/s
Mw = 7.62, aveFDepth=13 kmCrustal
Si and Midorikawa(1999) +/-σ=0.23
Fault distance km
100 101 102
100
101
102
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Applicability of the GMPE in Japan to the earthquakes in the world: NGA-PGA
… 14 …
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Applicability of the GMPE in Japan to the earthquakes in the world: NGA-PGV
… 15 …
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Strong motion recorded during the 2011 Mw9.1 Tohoku earthquake
… 16 …
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
PGA&PGV for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake P
.G.A
. ( c
m/s
2 )
Mw = 9.1 Si and Midorikawa (1999) Standard Deviation=0.27
Fault Distance ( km )
K-NET KiK-net
100 101 102
101
102
103
Koketsu et al. (2011)
Si, H., Kuyuk, H. S., Koketsu, K. & Miyake, M. Attenuation characteristics of peak ground motion during the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake, Seismol. Res. Lett. 82, 460 (2011)
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Comments by Boore (2011)
… 18 …
http://www.daveboore.com/daves_notes/comparisons_of_ground_motions_from_the_m_9_tohoku_earthquake_with_gmpes_v1.4.pdf
Figure 4. Similar to Figure 2, adding LL08, Aea10, MP10 GMPEs, and BCHydro10, and showing soil sites only for GMPEs (except for Aea10 and MP10, which are only for rock).
Figure 2. Observed and predicted ground motions (see text for definitions of the GMPE abbreviations). The yellow band corresponds to minus and plus one standard deviation in predicted values for the Zea06 GMPEs for S 30 V of 345 m/s (because Zea06 uses discrete site classes, the motions are the same as for S 30 V of 586 m/s, because their site class 2 ranges from 300 to 600 m/s).
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Comparison of Peak motions for the 2011 Mw9.1 Tohoku and the 2003 Mw8.3 Tokachi-oki earthquake
Koketsu et al. (2004)
P.G.
V.
( cm
/s )
Si and Midorikawa (1999) Mw = 9.1 Si and Midorikawa (1999) Mw = 8.2
Fault Distance ( km )
This earthquake 2003 Off Tokachi
100 101 102
100
101
102
P.G.
A. (
cm
/s2
)
Si and Midorikawa (1999) Mw = 9.1 Si and Midorikawa (1999) Mw = 8.2
Fault Distance ( km )
This earthqukae 2003 Off Tokachi
100 101 102
101
102
103
Si, H., Kuyuk, H. S., Koketsu, K. & Miyake, M. Attenuation characteristics of peak ground motion during the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake, Seismol. Res. Lett. 82, 460 (2011)
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
2010 Chile and 2001 Peru earthqauke 201002270634A NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CH
Date: 2010/ 2/27 Centroid Time: 6:35:14.5 GMT Lat= -35.98 Lon= -73.15 Depth= 23.2 Half duration=60.0 Centroid time minus hypocenter time: 58.9 Moment Tensor: Expo=29 1.040 -0.039 -1.000 0.304 -1.520 -0.119 Mw = 8.8 mb = 0.0 Ms = 8.3 Scalar Moment = 1.86e+29 Fault plane: strike=19 dip=18 slip=116 Fault plane: strike=172 dip=74 slip=82
Poiata et al. (2010) Boroschek et al. (2010)
Global CMT
062301E NEAR COAST OF PERU
Date: 2001/ 6/23 Centroid Time: 20:34:23.3 GMT Lat= -17.28 Lon= -72.71 Depth= 29.6 Half duration=43.2 Centroid time minus hypocenter time: 69.2 Moment Tensor: Expo=28 2.245 -0.547 -1.698 1.339 -3.728 1.444 Mw = 8.4 mb = 6.7 Ms = 8.2 Scalar Moment = 4.67e+28 Fault plane: strike=310 dip=18 slip=63 Fault plane: strike=159 dip=74 slip=98
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Application of GMPE for Mw9 Mega-thrust earthquakes
PGV
Coe
ffici
ent
b
Moment magnitude
6 7 8 9 102
3
4
5
Si, H., Koketsu, K. & Miyake, M, Midorikawa S. Attenuation Characteristics of Peak Ground Motions from Giant Earthquakes - The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Other Giant Earthquakes -, Fall meeting of SSJ (2011)
log A = b -log ( X+c ) - k X
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Strong motion for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (when using Equivalent Hypo. Distance)
・ Using the slip model by Koketsu et al. (2011)
P.G
.A.
( cm
/s2 )
Si and Midorikawa (1999) Mw = 9.1
Equivalent Hypo. Distance ( km )
K-NET KiK-net
101 102 103
101
102
103
P.G
.V.
( cm
/s )
Si and Midorikawa (1999) Mw = 9.1
Equivalent Hypo. Distance ( km )
K-NET KiK-net
101 102 103
100
101
102
ERI, Univ. of Tokyo ERI, Univ. of Tokyo
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Si and Midorikawa (1999) for PGV using Ehd Attenuation relation in Japan by Si and Midorikawa (1999)
where X, Mw show EHD, and moment magnitude, respectively. D is focal depth represented by the depth of the center of a fault plane. d shows is defined as bellow:
http://www.hp1039.jishin.go.jp/eqchreng/f2-18.htm
25.1002.0log0031.058.0log −−−++= XXdDMPGV eqw
d= 0.0 for crustal 0.06 for inter-plate 0.16 for intra-plate
Si and Midorikawa (1999) is defined on stiff ground with Vs30=600m/s
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Calculation of Ehd
Slip model by Koketsu et al.(2011) Definition of Ehd
… 24 …
∑∑=
2
2
2
i
i
ieq
XMM
X
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
Summary
Attenuation model for PSHMs in Japan also can be applied to the strong motion data world wide
When using closest distance to the fault plane, additional saturation for M should me considered in an attenuation model. Fortunately, this saturation has been considered in the hazard map in Japan.
the attenuation model using equivalent hypo. distance seems can be applied to a Mw9 mega-thrust earthquake.
… 25 …
2011 KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.
The 1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese Cooperative Program: Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map, November 25~30, 2011, Harbin, China
FIN
Thank you !