Structure ¢  The drivers of fertility ¢  Four drivers and some evidence:

l  Ideals, intentions and footprints l  Cultural change and partnership

dynamics l  Economic development, cycle and

gender l  Policies

¢  Interactions and new drivers ¢  References 1

Drivers of fertility ¢  The drivers of fertility (Balbo, Billari &

Mills, 2013, European Journal of Population)

¢  Note: not only causal evidence ¢  Quantum and tempo 1.  Micro level 2.  Meso level 3.  Macro level 2

Ideals, intentions and footprints

¢  OECD (e.g., 2011): “effectiveness of policy in reducing the gap between intended and achieved fertility”

¢  In surveys (Eurobarometer, European Social Survey, Generations and Gender Survey): fertility intentions or fertility ideals

¢  Recent focus: time-framed fertility intentions

¢  Even more recent: digital footprints 3

GGS Table 1. Instruments used in the Generations and Gender Surveys to elicit intentions and behavior

Event Question intention

Eligible sample (Wave 1)

Possible answer Realization of intention (Wave 2)

Birth of first child

Do you intend to have a child during the next three years ?

Respondents between 18 and 45 years, in a heterosexual relationship/ever in a relationship/sexual active who are physically possible to have a child and if applicable, whose partner is able to have children

1 – definitely not 2 – probably not 3 – probably yes 4 – definitely yes

Had a first child

Source: Billari, Hiekel & Liefbroer (R & R) 4

GGS

Source: Billari, Hiekel & Liefbroer (R & R) 5

ESS

6 Source: Harknett & Sten Hartnett, Population Studies (2014)

ESS

Source: Harknett & Sten Hartnett, Population Studies (2014) 7

Source: Billari, D’Amuri, Marcucci, PAA (2013)

Google search

8

Google search

9

Source: Ojala, Zagheni, Billari & Weber, ICWSM17, (2017)

Source: Ojala, Zagheni, Billari & Weber, ICWSM17, (2017)

Google search

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Cultural change and partnership dynamics ¢  Cultural change (Second Demographic

Transition) has brought a greater disconnection between marriage and fertility

¢  43% of EU births outside marriage in 2016

¢  Higher-order partnering as a potential ‘fuel’ of fertility

11

12

13

14

15 Source: Thompson et al., Demography (2014)

Economic development, cycle and gender ¢  Previous ideas on the relationship

between the economy and economic cycle and fertility l  negative relationship between

development and fertility (demographic transition theory)

l  emphasis on women’s opportunity cost of childbearing and childrearing (Becker)

16

Economic development, cycle and gender ¢  Now, theory and evidence

l  relationship between development and fertility turns positive at high levels of development (Europe)

l  Gender revolution, dual breadwinner models. Emergence of positive correlation between female labour force participation and fertility, and clearly pro-cyclical fertility

17

Total Fertility Rate and Human Development Index

Source: Myrskylä, Kohler, Billari, Nature (2009)

Total Fertility Rate and Human Development Index (2013)

NO

AU

CH

NL

US

DE

NZ

CA

DK

IE

SWICUK

FR

AT

BE

LU

FI

SI

IT

ES

CZ

GR

CYEE

LT

PL

SK

MT

PO

HU

CR

LV

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

.8 .85 .9 .95HDI2013

TFR2013 Fitted values

Sources: Human Fertility Database and UNDP

Source: Matisiak et al. (2018)

Policies ¢  (Clean) evidence on policy effects is not

abundant ¢  Issue: becoming a parent vs. having a

child ¢  Consistency with:

l  Fertility plans/desires l  Cultural change (e.g. emphasis on

marriage) l  Evidence on the role of income l  Gender revolution

22

Policies ¢  Positive effects of

l  cash transfers (specially after the year of childbirth)

l  childcare provision (positive spillover on female labour force participation)

l  small/ambiguous effect of parental leave

23

Policies

24 Source: Luci-Greulich & Théveneon, European Journal of Population (2013)

Policies

25 Source: Aksoy & Billari, American Journal of Sociology (2013)

Interactions and new drivers ¢  Drivers interact:

l  Policies may differ in their effect across societies/culture

l  Culture may shape the effect of economic change and the gender revolution

l  Role of technological change (e.g. digitalization of the economy and of everyday life)

26

Interactions and new drivers

27 Source: Aassve et al., Social Forces (2016)

Interactions and new drivers

28 Source: Billari et al., IZA WP (2017)

Interactions and new drivers ¢  Will there be a counter-modern backlash

(e.g. in culture and policies) and what would that be the impact on fertility?

¢  Role of nowcasting in detecting changes in trends/discontinuities

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References ¢  Aassve, A., Billari, F. C., & Pessin, L. (2016). Trust and Fertility

Dynamics. Social Forces, 95(2), 663-692. ¢  Aksoy, O., & Billari, F. C. (2018). Political Islam, Marriage, and Fertility:

Evidence from a Natural Experiment. American Journal of Sociology, 123(5), 1296-1340.

¢  Balbo, N., Billari, F. C., & Mills, M. (2013). Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research. European Journal of Population, 29(1), 1-38.

¢  Billari, F. C., D'Amuri, F., & Marcucci, J. (2013). Forecasting Births Using Google. Paper presented at the Population Association of America Annual Conference, New Orleans, LA.

¢  Billari, F. C., Giuntella, O., & Stella, L. (2017). Does Broadband Internet Affect Fertility?, IZA DP 10935.

¢  Billari, F. C., Hiekel, N., & Liebroer, A.C. (2018). The Social Stratification of Choice in the Transition to Adulthood

¢  Harknett, K., & Hartnett, C. S. (2014). The gap between births intended and births achieved in 22 European countries, 2004–07. Population Studies, 68(3), 265-282.

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References ¢  Luci-Greulich, A., & Thévenon, O. (2013). The Impact of Family Policies

on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries. European Journal of Population, 29(4), 387-416.

¢  Matysiak, A., Sobotka, T., & Vignoli, D. (2018). The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-National Analysis. Vienna Institute of Demography Working Papers, 2, 2018.

¢  Myrskylä, M., Kohler, H.-P., & Billari, F. C. (2009). Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature, 460(7256), 741-743.

¢  Ojala, J., Zagheni, E., Billari, F. C., & Weber, I. (2017). Fertility and Its Meaning: Evidence from Search Behavior. Paper presented at the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media; Eleventh International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media.

¢  Thomson, E., Lappegård, T., Carlson, M., Evans, A., & Gray, E. (2014). Childbearing Across Partnerships in Australia, the United States, Norway, and Sweden. Demography, 51(2), 485-508.

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This  project  has  received  funding  from  the  European  Research  Council  (ERC)  under  the  European  Union's  Horizon  2020  research  

and  innovaAon  programme  (grant  agreement    n°  694262),  project  DisCont  -­‐  Discon+nui+es  in  Household  and  

Family  Forma+on