structure of argument
DESCRIPTION
Structure of Argument. Science of climate change Implications of science for structure of economics Key economic issues: some questions Responding to the global challenges: the basis for international action. The Greenhouse Effect. Met Office Hadley Centre. Strong Global Warming Observed. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Structure of Argument
• Science of climate change• Implications of science for structure of
economics• Key economic issues: some questions• Responding to the global challenges: the
basis for international action
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The Greenhouse Effect
Met Office Hadley Centre
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Strong Global Warming Observed
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchBased on Folland et al (2000) and Jones and Moberg (2003)
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Rapid rise in the stock of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere post 1850:
Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)
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Flows of emissions of CO2 from burning fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950
Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT
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5
10
15
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25
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Gt C
O2
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Global emissions of greenhouse gases come from a wide range of sources
Source: World Resources Institute. 2000 estimate.
Energy – 25.6 Gt 61%Consuming fossil fuels
Land Use changes 7.6 Gt 18% primarily deforestation
Agriculture 5.6 Gt 14%mostly from soils & livestock
Electricity & Heat Generation
Transport
IndustryOther energy
All GHG in CO2 equivalent
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9.4
5.4
4.1
5.8
1.5
7.6
16.8
9.3
5.6
8.1
1.9
7.6
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PowerGeneration and
Heat Plants
Transport Industry Agriculture Waste Land Use
Global emissions are forecast to grow from all sources transport & power generation growing fastest
+2.1%
+2.1%
+1.1%
+1.2%
annual average forecast % growth in emissions to 2030
Source: International Energy Agency, US Environmental Protection Agency, CO2 equivalent
+0.7%
2002 actual emissions
2030 projected emissions
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Projected Changes in Global Average Temperature to 2100 under Different IPCC Emissions Scenarios
(highest – A1FI, lowest – B1)
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Change in the 2050s, based on IPCC Scenario A1
Warming will lead to major changes in water availability across the globe, with
consequences for droughts and floods
Source: Arnell (2004)
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Increase in global temperature (relative to pre-industrial levels) for different stabilisation levels
(expressed as CO2 equivalent).
Temperature change by 2100
(relative to pre-industrial)Temperature change at
equilibrium (relative to pre-industrial)
Stabilisation Level (CO2
equivalent)
Temperature change - based on
IPCC 2001 climate models
Temperature change - based on 2004 Hadley
Centre ensembles
Temperature change -
based on IPCC 2001 climate
models
Temperature change -
based on 2004 Hadley Centre
ensembles
400ppm 1.2 - 2.5C 1.6 - 2.8C 0.8 - 2.4C 1.3 - 2.8C
450ppm 1.3 - 2.7C 1.8 - 3.0C 1.0 - 3.1C 1.7 - 3.7C
550ppm 1.5 - 3.2C 2.2 - 3.6C 1.5 - 4.4C 2.4 - 5.3C
Source: Based on den Elzen and Meinhausen (2005).
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US WestEurope
China Russia Japan India Africa Mexico Brazil
Larger developing countries account for much of the forecast rise in emissions
Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT Energy Information Administration Reference Scenario, Energy emissions only
39%
11%
145%
32%5%
95%78%
63%99%
Projected emissions, 2025
2002 emissions
Gt C
O2
Energy Emissions only
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Although current emissions per capita are higher in developed countries
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1110
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43
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United Statesof America
RussianFederation
Japan EuropeanUnion (25)
World China Brazil India
Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT
2002 CO2Energy Emissions only
Ton
nes
per
pers
on p
er y
ear
CO
2
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To stabilise at below 550 ppm, emissions must start to fall soon & developing countries
must be part of the solution
Business as usual
(A2)
Source IPPC