STUDIES IN CONCRETE

Commercial Off-the-Shelf Games On Urban Irregular Warfare

Analysis of Urban Warfare

MCB Quantico

April 2-5, 2019

Event Duration Urban centre Type of conflict

Tupamaro insurgency

4 yearsMontevideo~1.5 million

Low-intensity insurgency, frequent terrorism

Operation “Whirlwind”

5 daysBudapest

~ 1.6 millionCorps-sized operations against disorganized and

unprepared insurgents

Operation “We Are Coming,

Nineveh”~ 5 months

West Mosul~ 600,000?

Corps-sized operations against organized and prepared insurgents

Case studies in urban irregular warfare

http://www.professionalwargaming.co.uk/Complete-Wargames-Handbook-Dunnigan.pdf

1.Concept development2.Research3.Integration 4.Create prototype5.First draft of rules6.Game development7.Blind testing8.Editing9.Production10.Feedback

TREADSTime

Relationships between:

- Entities (who are the acting bodies etc. and how they relate)

- Activities (what players do in the game to/with each other)

- Dynamics (what changes result from these activities)

Space

(Perla, “Wargaming and Analysis”(2007) https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/D0016966.a1.pdf)

What was the point?

• Terrorism is a primary tactic of urban guerrillas, but it is only a tactic.

• The power of terrorism lies not in the material damage it can cause, but in the psychological “cascade” effect it can have.

• The “cascade” effect is nonlinear, but not completely unpredictable.

• The security forces need reliable informers, a coordinated network for sharing and disseminating intelligence, and trained troops.

• The tactical initiative normally lies with the insurgents, but this does not always translate into a tactical advantage.

Thank you.

brian.train@gmail.com

https://brtrain.wordpress.com(notes, slides, design bibliographies)

Tupamaro (Brian Train, 1994)

Asprey, Robert. War in the Shadows: The Guerrilla in History. William Morrow and Company, 1994.

Burton, Anthony. Urban Terrorism: Theory, Practice, Response. L. Cooper, 1975.

Chaliand, Gerard. Terrorism: From Popular Struggle to Media Spectacle. Saqi Books, 1987.

Daskal, Steven. “The Insurgency Threat and Ways to Defeat It”, Military Review, January 1986.

Dobson, Christopher. The Terrorists: Their Weapons, Leaders, and Tactics. Facts on File, 1982.

Elliott, John. “Transitions of Contemporary Terrorism”, Military Review, May 1977.

Gellner, John. Bayonets in the Streets: Urban Guerrilla at Home and Abroad. Collier-Macmillan Canada, 1974.

Labrousse, Alain. The Tupamaros. Penguin, 1973.

Laqueur, Walter. Guerrilla: A Historical and Critical Study. Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1977.

Marighella, Carlos. Minimanual of the Urban Guerrilla. Documentary Publications, 1985.

Martic, Milos. Insurrection: Five Schools of Revolutionary Thought. Dunellen, 1975.

Moss, Robert. Urban Guerrilla Warfare. International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1971.

Moss, Robert. Urban Guerrillas: The New Face of Political Violence. Temple Smith, 1972.

Moss, Robert. War for the Cities. Coward, McCann, and Geogeghan, 1972.

Train, Brian. “The Terror War”, Strategy and Tactics #166, February 1994. http://islandnet.com/~ltmurnau/text/terrorwr.htm

OPERATION WHIRLWIND (Brian Train, 2002)

NIGHTS OF FIRE (Brian Train and David Turczi, 2017)

Central Intelligence Agency Historical Staff. - The Clandestine Service Historical Series: Hungary, volumes 1 and 2. n.d.- The Hungarian Revolution and Planning for the Future. (prepared January 1958)

Congdon, Lee, with Kiraly, Bela, and Nagy, Karoly, eds. 1956: The Hungarian Revolution and War for Independence, Columbia University Press, 2006.

Horvath, Miklos, with Bartoniek, Emma and Palosfalvi, Tamas. From the Noon Bell to the Lads of Pest. Zrinyi Media, 2011.

Moynahan, Bryan. Claws of the Bear: The History of the Red Army from the Revolution to the Present. Houghton Mifflin, 1989.

Pallukacs, Hajnal. “Frequency for the People and Frequency by the People”. Journal of Global Politics and Current Diplomacy, 2014.

“Report of the Special Committee on the Problem of Hungary”. United Nations General Assembly official records, 11th session, supplement no. 18 (A/3592), 1957.

Ritter, Lewis. “The Soviet Invasion of Hungary, 1956”. Strategy and Tactics #218, September/October 2003.

Schmidl, Erwin and Ritter, Laszlo. The Hungarian Revolution 1956. Osprey, 2006.

Unknown author. “Hungary: Resistance Activities and Potentials”. Study prepared for US Army Intelligence, January 1956.

WE ARE COMING, NINEVEH (Harrison Brewer and Juliette le Menaheze, 2018)

Arnold, Thomas and Fiore, Nicolas. “Five Operational Lessons from the Battle for Mosul”, Military Review, January-February 2019. https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/Jan-Feb-2019/Arnold-Mosul/

Bellingcat: "The Battle for Mosul: A View from Space before the Operation": https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/11/01/battle-mosul-view-space-operation/

Mosul Study Group, “What the Battle for Mosul Teaches the Force.” Mosul Study Group, September 2017. https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Primer-on-Urban-Operation/Documents/Mosul-Public-Release1.pdf

Modern War Institute: “Lecture by COL Pat Work”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZ-qM8JjLOI –(Lecture by Commanding Officer 2nd BCT, 82nd Airborne Division)

Musings on Iraq blog:- posts with the label “Mosul” (near day-by-day narrative): http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/search/label/Mosul?updated-max=2017-07-14T08:38:00-07:00&max-results=20&start=40&by-date=false

- Interview with COL (Ret) David Witty: http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/07/reviewing-battle-of-mosul-interview.html

Small Wars Journal, "Immediate Lessons from the Battle of Mosul": https://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/immediate-lessons-from-the-battle-of-mosul

Understanding War blog, ISF Order of Battle: http://www.understandingwar.org/report/iraqi-security-forces-and-popular-mobilization-forces-orders-battle-0

Wikipedia entry, “Battle of Mosul”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mosul_(2016%E2%80%932017)