studies of igbp-related subjects in northern eurasia at the laboratory of climatology, institute of...
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Studies of IGBP-related subjects in Northern Eurasia
at the Laboratory of Climatology, Institute of Geography,
Russian Academy of Sciences
Andrey B.Shmakin
Main subjects studied at the Laboratory
• Regional structure of climate change in the last millennium and its relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation – relevant to PAGES
• Climate extremes and their variability in the 20th century – relevant to PAGES
• Role of the land surface in climatic system from local to global scale – relevant to ILEAPS and GAIM
Change of Net Primary Production of vegetation (% of contemporary)on the East European Plain under doubling of CO2 scenario
(Denissenko, Turkov, 2004)
Distribution of air temperature and precipitation extremes in Northern
Eurasia in the 2nd half of 20th century
A.B.Shmakin, V.V.Popova
Time series of annual mean air temperature in Russia as deviations from 1961-90 average (Izrael, 2000). Solid horizontal lines represent mean values for the periods of 1951-80 and 1989-2001, dashed lines show 99% confidence intervals.
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
Network of ex-USSR meteorological stations with available daily data, used for the analysis of climatic extremes
Characteristics of air temperature and precipitation extremes: - number of days per month with daily precipitation more than 30 mm; - maximum pentad precipitation in the certain month; - number of days per month corresponding to the atmospheric drought criteria by precipitation and maximum temperature (not counting its continuous length); - number of days per month with minimum air temperature below the 10% probability limit (determined for the basic time series from 1951 to 1980) during 2 or more days; - monthly sum of minimum air temperature below the 10% probability limit (determined for the base time series from 1951 to 1980); - number of days in a month with decreasing of average daily temperature since the previous day for 7C and more (i.e. the situations with intense cold fronts, potentially associated with squalls and tornadoes); - days of last frost in spring and first frost in autumn;
- length of frost-free season.
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
- 1 - 0 . 7 5 - 0 . 5 - 0 . 2 5 0 0 . 2 5 0 . 5
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
Change of number of days with minimum air temperature below 10% probability limit in December – February of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80.
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
-0 .4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
Anomalies of maximum pentad sum of precipitation in December – February of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80. Statistically insignificant changes (at 10% level) are shown in white.
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
Change of number of days with atmospheric drought in July of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
Change of number of days with daily precipitation more than 30 mm in June – August of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80.
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
- 1 - 0 . 5 0 0 . 5 1
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
Change of number of days with air temperature decrease by more than 7оС since the previous day in June of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80.
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
- 2 5 - 2 0 - 1 5 - 1 0 - 5 0 5 1 0 1 5
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
Change of frost-free season length (days) averaged for 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80. Statistically insignificant changes (at 5% level) are shown in white.
Conclusions
Change of characteristics of climate extremes generally demonstrate milder conditions, especially in winter.
At the same time, in the east, north and center of the East European plain, the frost-free season has shortened significantly.
In separate regions of the ex-USSR, some weather extremes (intensive rains, atmospheric droughts, sharp temperature decreases) became more frequent.
Evaluation of snow cover and permafrost features in Northern Eurasia for some climate
change scenarios
A.B.Shmakin
Purpose of the study:
• To evaluate the regime of snow cover formation and melting, as well as permafrost thawing, in contemporary conditions and under certain climate change scenarios for the 21st century.
Model:
• SPONSOR parameterization scheme with full description of the local energy/water exchange processes. The scheme has been involved in numerous international projects for intercomparison of such models since 1994. The model was used together with the original radiation scheme (Shmakin, 1998).
Location of the test sites in Eurasia
T ikN ar T u r
O le Y ak
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 04 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
Air temperature in Tiksi for January of 1992 (observed) and 2062 (projected
from GCM scenarios)
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
1992
2062(Hadley)
2062(ECHAM)
Average of annual maximum SWEs (mm) at the test sites
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Turuhansk Olekminsk Tiksi
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at .7 m depth,
marsh
260
265
270
275
280
285
Narian-Mar Turuhansk Olekminsk Yakutsk Tiksi
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at .7 m depth, bush
270
272
274
276
278
280
282
284
Narian-Mar Turuhansk Olekminsk Yakutsk Tiksi
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at 2 m depth, marsh
260
262
264
266
268
270
272
274
Narian-Mar Turuhansk Olekminsk Yakutsk Tiksi
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at 2 m depth, bush
262
264
266
268
270
272
274
Narian-Mar Turuhansk Olekminsk Yakutsk Tiksi
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
Conclusions
• At the wetter sites, no qualitative changes in the permafrost regime take place in the coming 70 years.
• At the dryer sites under the ECHAM scenario, the permafrost will start to thaw in 2060s at 0.7 m in Tiksi and at 2 m in Turuhansk.
• The rate of soil temperature increase in the coming 70 years does not exceed 1.5°C at wetter sites, and 2.5°C at dryer sites. This is due to considerable soil heat capacity and low soil heat conductivity in the permafrost areas.
• The snow water equivalent at the sites will decrease to some extent under the climate change scenarios.