study results wyoming firmed resource option this slide deck contains results from the 2012 teppc...
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Study Results
Wyoming Firmed Resource Option
This slide deck contains results from the 2012 TEPPC Study Program related to the Wyoming Firmed Resource Option studies. The generation results for the associated transmission expansion projects follow immediately after, along with flow information for the added transmission.
Gas FirmingModeling Goal
Allow incremental gas CT’s (located in WY) to dispatch based on economics. Using a nomogram, force their output down DC lines (with wind).
Implementation StepsStart with 2022 PC21 Wyoming Resource Option (+12,000 GWh)
1. Add 1,000 MW of incremental gas CC’s physically located in WY• Economic dispatch based on where DC line terminates • Standard “CC Recent” modeling
2. Remove CT’s no longer needed for PRM • PRM may have been supplemented by added CC’s• Remove CT’s from region where DC line terminates• Essentially assume DC line assures delivery
4. Use nomogram to force both wind and CC dispatch down DC line• DC Line Flow ≥ Added Wind + Added CTs
Add: 12,000 GWh to meet WECC RPS
Add transmission
Renewable Options Under High Load
Firmed Cases
Increase WECC-wide load 8%
1
2
4
For these regions
3 Add: firming resource
Gas
Hydro
Pumped storage
Increase WECC-wide load 8%1
2010 2022800,000
850,000
900,000
950,000
1,000,000
1,050,000
1,100,000
Western Interconnection Annual Energy (GWh)10-Year Study Comparison
Common Case LRS
An
nu
al E
ner
gy
(GW
h)
8%
8% increase to peak and energy
10%
10% decrease to energy
Higher Load = Additional RPS Energy
Calculate ratios of planned renewables in TEPPC 2022 Common Case • Do not include existing resources• Did not include DG• IRP and LRS data
Apply ratio to study build-out of 12,000 GWh• Concept: development trends are best representation of
what could be added to each state • More resources available than what is identified in WREZ• More granular information from CPUC/CAISO
Locate resources using WREZ peer-analysis tool
Extrapolation Method
Add 12,000 GWh to meet WECC RPS 2
10-Year Study ResultsWyoming Firmed Resource Option Studies
EC26-1 TransWest ExpressEC26-2 Zephyr AEC26-3 Zephyr BEC26-4 Zephyr CEC26-5 Zephyr D
Zephyr A
Zephyr B
Zephyr
C
Tran
sWes
t Exp
ress
Zephyr D
Conventional Hydro
Pumped Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
IC
Negative Bus Load
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(600,000) (400,000) (200,000) 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC21 Wyoming vs. 2022 EC26-1 TWE (w nomo)
GWh
Production cost decreased $21 M (.1%)
Dump energy increased 9.6 GWh (2.6%)
Emergency Energy decreased .4%
CO2 Emissions decreased .1%
AZ, NV, CA, CO
Conventional Hydro
Pumped Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
IC
Negative Bus Load
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(10,000,000) (5,000,000) 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1-5 High Load Case vs. 2022 EC26-1 TWE (w nomo)
GWh
Production cost decreased $426 M (2.4%)
Dump energy increased 54.1 GWh (16.2%)
Emergency Energy decreased .6%
CO2 Emissions decreased 1.3%
NV, CA, CO
Alberta
Arizon
a
British
Colu
mbia
Califo
rnia
Colora
do
Idah
o
Mex
ico
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Texas
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
-6,000,000
-4,000,000
-2,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1-5 High Load Case vs. 2022 EC26-1 TWE (w nomo)
Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration Renewable Other
GWh
What is different?LoadsTransmissionResources
Alberta
Arizon
a
British
Colu
mbia
Califo
rnia
Colora
do
Idah
o
Mex
ico
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Texas
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
-2,500,000
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC21 Wyoming vs. 2022 EC26-1 TWE (w nomo)
Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration Renewable Other
GWh
What is different?LoadsTransmissionResources
9 369 729 10891449180921692529288932493609396943294689504954095769612964896849720975697929828986490
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Full Year Flow ResultsTWE
CC Total
Wind Total
Interstate TWE
Interstate TWE
9 315 621 927 12331539184521512457276330693375368139874293459949055211551758236129643567417047735376597965827185770
100
200
300
400
500
600
Incremental CC Dispatch - EC26-2 TWE
WY Combined Cycle 1 WY Combined Cycle 2 WY Combined Cycle 1 WY Combined Cycle 2
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 1031091151211271331391451511571631691751811870
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
End of JulyTWE
CC Total
Wind Total
Interstate TWE
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115 121 127 133 139 145 151 157 163 1690
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Middle of NovemberTWE
CC Total
Wind Total
Interstate TWE
10-Year Study ResultsWyoming Firmed Resource Option Studies
EC26-1 TransWest ExpressEC26-2 Zephyr AEC26-3 Zephyr BEC26-4 Zephyr CEC26-5 Zephyr D
Zephyr A
Zephyr B
Zephyr
C
Tran
sWes
t Exp
ress
Zephyr D
Conventional Hydro
Pumped Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
IC
Negative Bus Load
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(2,000,000)(1,500,000)(1,000,000) (500,000) 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC21 Wyoming vs. 2022 EC26-2 Zephyr A (w nomo)
GWh
Production cost decreased $160 M (.9%)
Dump energy increased 121GWh (33%)
Emergency Energy decreased .6%
CO2 Emissions decreased 0%
WY
Conventional Hydro
Pumped Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
IC
Negative Bus Load
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(10,000,000) (5,000,000) 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1-5 High Load Case vs. 2022 EC26-2 Zephyr A (w nomo)
GWh
Production cost decreased $244M (1.4%)
Dump energy increased 153 GWh (46.2%)
Emergency Energy increased .4%
CO2 Emissions decreased 1.4%
AZ, NV, CA, WA
WY
Alberta
Arizon
a
British
Colu
mbia
Califo
rnia
Colora
do
Idah
o
Mex
ico
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Texas
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
-6,000,000
-4,000,000
-2,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1-5 High Load Case vs. 2022 EC26-2 Zephyr A (w nomo)Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration Renewable Other
GWh
What is different?LoadsTransmissionResources
Alberta
Arizon
a
British
Colu
mbia
Califo
rnia
Colora
do
Idah
o
Mex
ico
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Texas
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
-3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC21 Wyoming vs. 2022 EC26-2 Zephyr A (w nomo)
Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration Renewable Other
GWh
What is different?LoadsTransmissionResources
9 315 621 927 12331539184521512457276330693375368139874293459949055211551758236129643567417047735376597965827185770
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Full Year Flow ResultsZephyr A
Wind Total CC Total Interstate Zephyr A Interstate Zephyr A
9 315 621 927 12331539184521512457276330693375368139874293459949055211551758236129643567417047735376597965827185770
100
200
300
400
500
600
Incremental CC Dispatch - EC26-2 Zephyr A
WY Combined Cycle 1 WY Combined Cycle 2 Duration 1 Duration 2
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 1031091151211271331391451511571631691751811870
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
End of JulyZephyr A
CC Total
Wind Total
Interstate Zephyr A
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115 121 127 133 139 145 151 157 163 1690
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Middle of NovemberZephyr A
CC Total
Wind Total
Interstate Zephyr A
10-Year Study ResultsWyoming Firmed Resource Option Studies
EC26-1 TransWest ExpressEC26-2 Zephyr AEC26-3 Zephyr BEC26-4 Zephyr CEC26-5 Zephyr D
Zephyr A
Zephyr B
Zephyr
C
Tran
sWes
t Exp
ress
Zephyr D
Conventional Hydro
Pumped Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
IC
Negative Bus Load
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(2,000,000)(1,500,000)(1,000,000) (500,000) 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC21 Wyoming vs. 2022 EC26-3 Zephyr B (w nomo)
GWh
Production cost decreased $150M (2.4%)
Dump energy increased 138 GWh (38%)
Emergency Energy increased .4%
CO2 Emissions decreased .1%
AZ, NV, CA
WY
Conventional Hydro
Pumped Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
IC
Negative Bus Load
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(10,000,000) (5,000,000) 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1-5 High Load Case vs. 2022 EC26-3 Zephyr B (w nomo)
GWh
Production cost decreased $254M (1.4%)
Dump energy increased 170 GWh (51%)
Emergency Energy decreased .1%
CO2 Emissions decreased 1.3%
AZ, NV, CA, WA
WY
Alberta
Arizon
a
British
Colu
mbia
Califo
rnia
Colora
do
Idah
o
Mex
ico
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Texas
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1-5 High Load Case vs. 2022 EC26-3 Zephyr B (w nomo)Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration Renewable Other
GWh
What is different?LoadsTransmissionResources
Alberta
Arizon
a
British
Colu
mbia
Califo
rnia
Colora
do
Idah
o
Mex
ico
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Texas
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
-4,000,000
-3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC21 Wyoming vs. 2022 EC26-3 Zephyr B (w nomo)
Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration Renewable Other
GWh
What is different?LoadsTransmissionResources
9 315 621 927 12331539184521512457276330693375368139874293459949055211551758236129643567417047735376597965827185770
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Full Year Flow ResultsZephyr B
Wind Total CC Total Interstate Zephyr B Interstate Zephyr B
9 315 621 927 12331539184521512457276330693375368139874293459949055211551758236129643567417047735376597965827185770
100
200
300
400
500
600
Incremental CC Dispatch - EC26-2 Zephyr B
WY Combined Cycle 1 WY Combined Cycle 2 WY Combined Cycle 1 WY Combined Cycle 2
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 1031091151211271331391451511571631691751811870
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
End of JulyZephyr B
CC Total
Wind Total
Interstate Zephyr B
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 1031091151211271331391451511571631690
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Middle of NovemberZephyr B
CC Total
Wind Total
Interstate Zephyr B
10-Year Study ResultsWyoming Firmed Resource Option Studies
EC26-1 TransWest ExpressEC26-2 Zephyr AEC26-3 Zephyr BEC26-4 Zephyr CEC26-5 Zephyr D
Zephyr A
Zephyr B
Zephyr
C
Tran
sWes
t Exp
ress
Zephyr D
Conventional Hydro
Pumped Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
IC
Negative Bus Load
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(1,500,000) (1,000,000) (500,000) 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC21 Wyoming vs. 2022 EC26-4 Zephyr C (w nomo)
GWh
Production cost decreased $118 M (.7%)
Dump energy increased 124 GWh (34%)
Emergency Energy decreased 0%
CO2 Emissions decreased 0%
AZ, NV, CA, WA
WY
Conventional Hydro
Pumped Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
IC
Negative Bus Load
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(10,000,000) (5,000,000) 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1-5 High Load Case vs. 2022 EC26-6 Zephyr C (w nomo)
GWh
Production cost decreased $286M (1.6%)
Dump energy increased 156 GWh (47%)
Emergency Energy decreased .2%
CO2 Emissions decreased 1.3%
AZ, NV, CA, WA
WY
Alberta
Arizon
a
British
Colu
mbia
Califo
rnia
Colora
do
Idah
o
Mex
ico
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Texas
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1-5 High Load Case vs. 2022 EC26-6 Zephyr C (w nomo)Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration Renewable Other
GWh
What is different?LoadsTransmissionResources
Alberta
Arizon
a
British
Colu
mbia
Califo
rnia
Colora
do
Idah
o
Mex
ico
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Texas
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
-3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC21 Wyoming vs. 2022 EC26-4 Zephyr C (w nomo)
Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration Renewable Other
GWh
What is different?LoadsTransmissionResources
9 315 621 927 12331539184521512457276330693375368139874293459949055211551758236129643567417047735376597965827185770
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Full Year Flow ResultsZephyr C
Wind Total CC Total Interstate Zephyr C Interstate Zephyr C
9 315 621 927 12331539184521512457276330693375368139874293459949055211551758236129643567417047735376597965827185770
100
200
300
400
500
600
Incremental CC Dispatch - EC26-2 Zephyr B
WY Combined Cycle 1 WY Combined Cycle 2 WY Combined Cycle 1 WY Combined Cycle 2
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 1031091151211271331391451511571631691751811870
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
End of JulyZephyr C
CC Total
Wind Total
Interstate Zephyr C
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 1031091151211271331391451511571631690
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Middle of NovemberZephyr C
CC Total
Wind Total
Interstate Zephyr C
10-Year Study ResultsWyoming Firmed Resource Option Studies
EC26-1 TransWest ExpressEC26-2 Zephyr AEC26-3 Zephyr BEC26-4 Zephyr CEC26-5 Zephyr D
Zephyr A
Zephyr B
Zephyr
C
Tran
sWes
t Exp
ress
Zephyr D
Conventional Hydro
Pumped Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
IC
Negative Bus Load
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(20,000,000) (15,000,000) (10,000,000) (5,000,000) 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC21 Wyoming vs. 2022 EC26-5 Zephyr D (w nomo)
GWh
Production cost decreased $472M (2.7%)
Dump energy increased 78 GWh (21%)
Emergency Energy increased .9%
CO2 Emissions decreased 1.6%
WY
Conventional Hydro
Pumped Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
IC
Negative Bus Load
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(20,000,000) (15,000,000) (10,000,000) (5,000,000) 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1-5 High Load Case vs. 2022 EC26-5 Zephyr D (w nomo)
GWh
Production cost decreased $68M (.3%)
Dump energy increased 110GWh (33%)
Emergency Energy increased .7%
CO2 Emissions decreased 3%
WY
Alberta
Arizon
a
British
Colu
mbia
Califo
rnia
Colora
do
Idah
o
Mex
ico
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Texas
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
-20,000,000
-15,000,000
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1-5 High Load Case vs. 2022 EC26-5 Zephyr D (w nomo)Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration Renewable Other
GWh
What is different?LoadsTransmissionResources
Alberta
Arizon
a
British
Colu
mbia
Califo
rnia
Colora
do
Idah
o
Mex
ico
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Texas
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
-20,000,000
-15,000,000
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC21 Wyoming vs. 2022 EC26-5 Zephyr D (w nomo)
Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration Renewable Other
GWh
What is different?LoadsTransmissionResources
9 315 621 927 12331539184521512457276330693375368139874293459949055211551758236129643567417047735376597965827185770
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Full Year Flow ResultsZephyr D
Wind Total CC Total Interstate Zephyr D Interstate Zephyr D
9 315 621 927 12331539184521512457276330693375368139874293459949055211551758236129643567417047735376597965827185770
100
200
300
400
500
600
Incremental CC Dispatch - EC26-2 Zephyr D
WY Combined Cycle 1 WY Combined Cycle 2 WY Combined Cycle 1 WY Combined Cycle 2
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 1031091151211271331391451511571631691751811870
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
End of JulyZephyr D
CC Total
Wind Total
Interstate Zephyr D
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115 121 127 133 139 145 151 157 163 1690
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Middle of NovemberZephyr D
CC Total
Wind Total
Interstate Zephyr D
Questions or thoughts on this study?