Sub-Saharan Africa . . . Today and Tomorrow

Laura Kaub, Manager Yale Young African Scholars Program

Clara Priester, EducationUSA Regional Director, East and Southern Africa

CIS - AISA Institute 2017 | #CISInstituteAfrica

Sub-Saharan Africa . . . Today and Tomorrow

May 2000

December 2011

March 2013

Sub-Saharan Africa . . . In Transition

April 2016

" . . . in the 21st century, Africa is the continent that is the

land of opportunity".

Former Secretary Clinton – June 15, 2012

Sub-Saharan Africa . . . In Transition

Sub-Saharan Africa . . . In Transition

“Africa is one of the fastest-growing regions in the world. Africa’s middle class is projected to grow to more than one billion consumers. With hundreds of millions of mobile phones, surging access to the Internet, Africans are beginning to leapfrog old technologies into new prosperity. Africa is on the move, a new Africa is emerging. African Union, July 28, 2015

Sub-Saharan Africa . . . In TransitionAfrica’s growth slowed but expected to strengthen again

Sub-Saharan Africa . . . In Transition

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2016, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/weoselagr.aspx

Country Group (see slide notes for

definitions) 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

World 3.20 3.08 3.44 3.57 3.71 3.74

Major advanced economies (G7) 1.89 1.39 1.66 1.66 1.61 1.46

European Union 2.32 1.93 1.69 1.80 1.76 1.76

ASEAN-5 4.76 4.83 5.11 5.21 5.39 5.53

Latin America and the Caribbean -0.03 -0.55 1.60 2.09 2.61 2.71

Middle East and North Africa 2.15 3.23 3.16 3.35 3.62 3.74

Sub-Saharan Africa 3.35 1.43 2.85 3.58 4.23 4.35

GDP Projections• 2016 impacted by strong headwinds• 2017 regaining momentum• 2018 – 2020

• Outpacing the world and most regions (except ASEAN)

Today and TomorrowWolfgang Fengler, a World Bank economist, identified four causes of Africa’s economic rise:

First, the continent has the right kind of population growth:

• In 2015, The United Nations pronounced that Africa is a continent with up to 40% of its population aged between 15 and 24 and more than two-thirds below 30 years old.

• By 2020, the median age will be 43 in Europe, 38 in China and just 20 in Africa

http://www.pwc.co.uk/finance/sustainability/the-business-of-changing-demographics.html

Today and Tomorrow

• By 2035, the number of Africans 15–64 will exceed that from the rest of the world combined.

CIS - AISA Institute 2017 | Johannesburg

Today and Tomorrow

Today and Tomorrow

Second, rapid urbanization

• From 1950 to today, the share of urban residents has increased from 14 percent to 40 percent, and is expected to reach 50 percent by the mid-2030s.

• Rising productivity in agriculture

• Services-led growth and increasing amounts of foreign direct investment as catalysts for increasing structural transformation. • For example, foreign direct investment can help

develop local businesses and bring knowledge and technology to a region, which can support economic growth.

Sources: African Economic Outlook 2016Sustainable Cities and Structural Transformation

Today and Tomorrow

Third, governance and economic management by officials have got better.

Governance

Sources: 1. The Economist, October 20, 2012, Africa’s Economy, Bulging in the Middle2. I2016 brahim Index of Africa Governance report

Today and Tomorrow

Third, governance and economic management by officials have got better.

Governance

Sources: 1. The Economist, October 20, 2012, Africa’s Economy, Bulging in the Middle2. I2016 brahim Index of Africa Governance report

Today and Tomorrow

Third, governance and economic management by officials have got better.

Economic Management“If current trends continue, most of Africa will be middle-income by 2025,” says Mr. Fengler. 1. People with more income are more inclined to pursue

entrepreneurial activities that may create employment and productivity growth.

2. Those who do not become entrepreneurs can provide laboror investment for those who do.

3. A growing middle class means a growing demand for consumer goods. That alone could push consumer spending in Africa from about US$860 billion in 2008 to US$1.4 trillion in 2020.

Sources: 1. The Economist, October 20, 2012, Africa’s Economy, Bulging in the Middle2. African Economic Outlook 2016 - Sustainable Cities and Structural Transformation, May 2016

• Fourth, technology is having a huge effect on Africa

Today and Tomorrow

Today and Tomorrow

Students doing research and the application process by phones, not laptops.• Develop phone apps for recruiting• Skype or Google Hangout interviews• Virtual sessions• Facebook pages• Twitter feeds

Source: EducationUSA Advisers

The Upside – an Opportunity

Most countries struggle with the

capacity and resources to address growing needs and demands for quality tertiary education

–Only 6% of Africa’s tertiary level students are able to access higher education services, compared to a global average of 26%. UNESCO

–1 out of 16 students continue tertiary education outside of their country of residence.

Sub-Saharan African Students in the U.S.

30046 30585 3111333593

35364

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Source: 2015-16 Open Doors Report

Sub-Saharan African Students in the U.S.

14.245 14.45214.998

16.958

18.097

7.827 7.761 7.549 7.560 7.690

5.196 5.511 5.683 6.043 6.263

2.778 2.861 2.883 3.032 3.311

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

20.000

West Africa

East Africa

Southern Africa

Central AfricaWest Africa51%

East Africa22%

Southern Africa

18%

Central Africa

9%

Source: 2015-16 Open Doors Report

Top Sending Sub-Saharan Africa Countries

10.674

3.049 3.019

1.813 1.517 1.296 1.295 1.229 1.210 949

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

Central Africa

Southern Africa

East Africa

West Africa

Source: 2015-16 Open Doors Report

Top 10 Countries Sending to the U.S.Where else do their students study?

CountryTotal

Outbound #1 #2 #3

Nigeria 52,066 UK 17,973 Ghana 11,933 US 7,531

Ghana 8,850 US 2,770 UK 1,706 Canada 543

Kenya 12,132 US 3,043 UK 2,155 Australia 1,449

South Africa 6,723 US 1,631 UK 1,212 Australia 700

Ethiopia 5,622 US 1,441 Italy 433 Finland 422

Zimbabwe 15,885 South Africa 10,993 US 1,147 UK 963

Côte d’Ivoire 7,036 France 3,483 US 1,061 Tunisia 470

Cameroon 19,491 Germany 5,463 France 4,775 Italy 2,754

Angola 6,946 Portugal 2,121 Brazil 1,675 US 936

Tanzania 4,974 US 845 UK 804 India 759

Source: UNESCO Global Flow of Tertiary-Level Students

• Four sub-regions in two groups: Central and West - REAC Nancy KetekuEast and Southern Africa - REAC Clara Priester

• 50 EducationUSA Centers in 43 countriesMajority located in U.S. Embassies and Consulates

• 2015 ~ 1,000,000+ students reached

• Opportunity Funds

• FaceBook Closed Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/EdUSA.Africa/

Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa +100 Students10 Highest 5-Year Growth Countries

Source: Open Doors Reports 2010/11 – 2015/16

Country 2010/11 2015/16 5 yr. Chg UG % Grad %

Congo, Dem. Rep. of the (Kinshasa) 252 949 277% 72 8

Equatorial Guinea 119 339 185% 80 6

Rwanda 457 928 103% 68 21

Cabo Verde/Cape Verde 55 102 85% 67 16

Angola 699 1 296 85% 86 4

Nigeria 7 148 10 674 49% 51 36

Mozambique 76 109 43% 57 32

Congo, Republic of the (Brazzaville) 240 337 40% 70 17

Côte d’Ivoire/Ivory Coast 904 1 229 36% 70 14

Swaziland 146 192 32% 66 13

What’s the trend here, and what does it mean?

Eight of the 10 countries with highest growth in number of students going to the U.S. are not Anglophone countries!

Francophone (and Lusophone) countries should not be ‘the flyover states’ of Africa any more.

Innovation in school quality and accessibility is changing the landscape quickly (case study: Enko Education)

Country Profile: Nigeria

• By SS2, many students take the GCE O-Levels, which was replaced by the SSCE (12th grade May/June).

• 7-9 subjects are examined. Transcripts (valid one year) are given by the institution 3-6 months after the exams. An official transcript from WAEC is issued later.

• Gov’t. requires English, Mathematics, Science, and one Nigerian language. All other subjects are electives.

• Requirements for admission to Nigerian universities:1) SSCE Examination results2) Universities Matriculation Examination (UME)

Overall, strong students well-prepared for university study in North America. High interest in studying abroad, with many families able to pay partial cost of study.

Country Profile: Mozambique

Instruction in Portuguese, with English required as a second language

class in secondary school. (French is an additional, optional offering.)

7 years of primary education which are compulsory and free

Until 10th Grade (end of Junior Secondary), all students are required to

take 10 subjects: maths, Portuguese, bio, physics, chemistry, history,

geography, technical drawing, physical education, and English

At 11th Grade level (Start of Senior Secondary): students choose

between academic tracks, each comprising subjects in addition to

compulsory Physical Education, Portuguese, English, and Maths:

• Science and Biology (Psychology, Pedagogy, Physics, Chemistry, Biology)

• Science and Technical Drawing (Psychology, Pedagogy, Physics, Chemistry, Technical Drawing)

• Arts (Languages, History, Geography)Grading system looks similar to the French with a 1-20 scale and grades

over 15 being very good, and over 17 being excellent.

Country Profile: Angola

School Structure:Primary: 6 yearsSecondary 1st Cycle: 3 yearsSecondary 2nd Cycle: 3 years

Highlights:Oil industry is booming there and Luanda is VERY expensive. There is growing interest in studying in Anglophone countries, but international or private schools with ‘expats’ are likely the only ones sending students out currently.

Scale Grade Description US Grade

16.00 - 20.00 Excelente (Excellent) A

13.00 - 15.00 Bom (Good) B

10.00 - 12.00 Suficiente (Sufficient) C

1.00 - 9.00 Reprovado

(Unsufficient) F

Country Profile: Senegal

• 6 years of compulsory education• 26.3% of population attended secondary school• 3.7% of population attended university• Follows the ‘French Bacc’ system, grading out of 20• Private schools are generally stronger, also offer English/Spanish through secondary years• Big emphasis on community service for students• Girls often struggle to complete schooling• Growing economy and more interest in N.A. unis as France gets harder to enter; 1,200+ in N.A. in 2014• Based on ALA’s experience, definitely corroborate English skills with TOEFL/IELTS or Skype interviews, but ignore SAT scores and consider routine recruitment travel to capital, Dakar!

Country Profile: Cote d’Ivoire

• 10 years of compulsory education • 24.8% of population attended secondary school• 7% of population attended university• Follows the French ‘Bacc’ system, grading out of 20• Private schools generally stronger, especially in the sciences• Big investment in education in recent decades; among the highest performing Francophone countries • Recent political instability created financial challenges, but interest in studying in N.A. still grows• ALAians from Cote d’Ivoire are routinely very strong students; seek TOEFL/IELTS or Skype interviews and ignore SATs but trust strong secondary grades

Country Profile: Mauritius

• Technically Francophone, but located off southeastern Africa and most students are educated in English for at least all of secondary school

• Highly educated population (90% literacy rate)• Education system is free (including transport!) and based

on the British; students take Cambridge O- and A-levels• Small country sending lower numbers to N.A. (~500 in

2014) but this is increasing and the economy is strong so many families can pay partial N.A. fees

• ALA experience is that Mauritian students are very strong and have VERY strong oral/written English

• Easy add-on to recruitment trips to South Africa and Kenya, plus it’s crazy beautiful!

ENKO EDUCATION

The Enko Education network

32

An Africa-wide network of international secondary schools

2017 - 8 schools in 5 countries2022 – 40 schools in 20 countries

What makes Enko unique:

University Admissions and Career Counselling Program

Outstanding and enriching learning experience

International Diploma (IB)1

2

3

Numbers and Nationalities of Students

725 Enko learners acrossSub-Saharan Africa

33

98 99

88

51

29 30

32

4

A M A Z I N G G R A C E

Total Nationality Breakdown

Cam:21%

D-L:2%

Sa:8%

Mzb:40%

Iv:10%

N-…

Mzb: MozambicanCam: CameroonianIv: IvoirianSa: South AfricanN-L: Non LocalD-L: Dual Nationality

Enko Highlights

• 70% of the first batch of Enko graduates (by September 2017) are already admitted to Top 100 universities• Yale University• King’s College London• Imperial College London• Durham University

• Stephanie Mbaillassem from Chad• Moved to Cameroon in 2014 for education access• Didn’t speak a word of English and was very shy• Is now blooming and fluent in English• Attended Yale Young African Scholars in 2015• Was admitted to Hult Business School in the U.S. for

2017 with a 60% scholarship

Follow-up resources (added after the discussion/Q&A)

• Great example of a university’s outreach to current students/applicants/parents re: it being a welcoming space: https://www.facebook.com/hofstrauniversity/videos/10154880667953280/

Thank you for your attention

Questions and Discussion