submission no 20 part 4 - aph.gov.au

Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and TradeForeign Affairs Sub-Committee

Submission No 20 Part 4Sub Divided & Low ResolutionAnnex A – F-22A DataAnnex B – Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs Industry 2001 ProposalAnnex C – Analysis Predictions Provided to Defence (Since May 1998)Annex D – Adverse Effects of Early F-111 RetirementAnnex E – Sources and Bibliography

Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority

Organisation: AIR POWER AUSTRALIA

Authors: Dr Carlo Kopp, MIEEE, MAIAA, PEngMr Peter A Goon, BEng, FTE (USNTPS)

Address: www.ausairpower.net

5 Annex A - F-22A Data 119

5 Annex A - F-22A Data

Figure 44: The F-22A is uniquely the only fighter in production, or planned, which combinessupersonic cruise capability and top tier stealth performance. (US Air Force).

This Annex provides a series of charts and diagrams which illustrate basic F-22A capabilities andprovides some comparisons against the Joint Strike Fighter.



Figure 45: An early production F-22A Raptor releasing a GBU-32 JDAM satellite aided guidedbomb (upper). The F-22A is a true multirole fighter, intended to excel in the air superiority role,but also to attack the most heavily defended surface targets with precision guided munitions. Withunchallenged survivability it will also be used for electronic and imaging radar reconnaissance. TheF-22A is designed to carry internal weapons where stealth is required, but can also carry significantexternal payloads where stealth is not required (lower) (US Air Force).



Top ten reasons why the F-22A Raptor is the best choice to replace Australia’s F/A-18A Hornets:

1. GREATER CAPABILITY BETTER SUITED TO AUSTRALIA’S NEEDS. The F-22Ais over twice as capable compared to what is being planned as the Joint Strike Fighter.

2. MORE COST EFFECTIVE. Buying the F-22A and upgrading the F-111s will be a cheaperyet more capable solution to the current plans.

3. BETTER DEFINED AND EARLIER SCHEDULE (NO RISK OF CAPABILITY GAP).Buying the F-22 toward the end of the currently planned full rate production would put thebuy in the 2010-2012 timeframe.

4. LESS TECHNICAL AND FINANCIAL RISK. The F-22A is a known commodity thatis flying today. The Joint Strike Fighter has yet to fly let alone complete development anddemonstrate its capability.

5. MAINTAINING STRATEGIC POSITION AND RELEVANCE IN THE REGION. Thesurvivability of the Joint Strike Fighter against post 2010 Sukhoi Su-30 derivative aircraft ishighly problematic.

6. DEVELOPING AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE INDUSTRY. By targeting return on invest-ment already made in F-111 support capabilities.

7. LESS EFFECT ON BALANCE OF TRADE. Fewer tax payer dollars have to be spent offshore.

8. BETTER LIFE CYCLE GROWTH CAPABILITY. The F-22A and F-111 are larger aircraftwith greater system growth potential.

9. BETTER LONGEVITY AND RETURN ON INVESTMENT. The F-22A and F-111are more robust airframe designs that have not been subject to the ’Cost As an IndependentVariable’ (CAIV) driven cost and capability reductions as is the case with the Joint StrikeFighter.

10. INDEPENDENCE, SELF RELIANCE AND VALUED CONTRIBUTION TO DE-FENCE OF THE REGION.

With the F-22A in service as a replacement for the F/A-18A, it provides the capability to defeat themost capable regional systems, creating a more permissive operational environment for the F-111.



(c) 2005, Carlo Kopp

A33−54

54

08

A33−24

A33−08

Figure 46: This diagram illustrates the F-22A in RAAF colours (C. Kopp).



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(Provisional Data)

Thrust, Wet, SL Wing Area Wing Sweep LE Sustained CruiseSpeed (Alt)

Total Fuel Capacity

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F−22A vs Joint Strike Fighter − Parametric Comparison

36

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Figure 51: The F-22A outperforms the Joint Strike Fighter in all cardinal specifications (C. Kopp).



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F-2

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g).


6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001 Industry Proposal 130

6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001Industry Proposal

This annex contains a detailed tabular breakdown of the comparative scoring performed between thecurrent Defence NACC plan and the 2001 industry proposal. For convenience, the summary tablein Table 2 is replicated here.

Proposal Metric Australian Industry Solution (2001) Current Defence PlanScore Score

Combat Capability Subtotal +2 -10Supersonic Cruise 0 -2All Aspect Stealth -1 -1Phased Array Radar 0 -1Internal Weapons 2 klb 0 -2Max External Payload +1 0Int Weapons Payload +1 -1Combat Radius (Int Fuel) 0 -2Cost Metrics Subtotal +2 -6Acquisition Cost +1 -2Acquisition Model +1 -2Life Cycle Costs +1 -1Return on Investment 0 -1Risk Metrics Subtotal +3 -13Acquisition Risk 0 -2Cost Risk 0 -2Design Risk 0 -1Strategic Risk 0 -1Strike Capability Gap +1 -2Air Sup Capability Gap +1 -2Air Def Capability Gap +1 -2

Net Assessment +7 -29

Table 5: Summary table of assessment scoring for current defence NACC and interim planningagainst the 2001 Australian Industry solution.

Note on Analysis Method:

The analysis technique and scoring method used is based upon ordinal comparison which is a tech-nique where parameters are ranked by relative magnitude. The scoring is thus based on comparinga large number of parameters against a target, and ranking each score as superior / equal / inferior.This method was chosen over cardinal comparison, in which the relative magnitudes of parametersare each expressed as a number, such as a percentage. For many of the metrics in this annex,this ordinal method in fact favours the Joint Strike Fighter and the F/A-18A HUG, by concealingthe scale of advantage enjoyed by the F-22A and F-111 in comparison. This analysis is thereforeunusually conservative.



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fig

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r ‘F

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ect

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on

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ng

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an

t o

nly

)-1



Cop

yrig

ht ©

Air

Pow

er A

ustra

lia a

nd A

ssoc

iate

s, Se

ptem

ber 2

005

-See

End

Not

e - Ψ

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ge 3

of 1

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STR

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ND

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t h

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90

0 k

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-1



Cop

yrig

ht ©

Air

Pow

er A

ustra

lia a

nd A

ssoc

iate

s, Se

ptem

ber 2

005

-See

End

Not

e - Ψ

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ge 4

of 1

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-1



Cop

yrig

ht ©

Air

Pow

er A

ustra

lia a

nd A

ssoc

iate

s, Se

ptem

ber 2

005

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End

Not

e - Ψ

.Pa

ge 5

of 1

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STR

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TR

Y S

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chie

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etr

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0



Cop

yrig

ht ©

Air

Pow

er A

ustra

lia a

nd A

ssoc

iate

s, Se

ptem

ber 2

005

-See

End

Not

e - Ψ

.Pa

ge 6

of 1

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STR

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ich

, in

tu

rn,

is p

art

of

a 5

pro

ject

CA

PS

TO

NE P

rog

ram

wh

ich

has

yet

to b

e m

an

ag

ed

as

a C

AP

STO

NE.

HIG

H

risk

exp

osu

re

on

air

craft

availab

ilit

y.

-1

0Evo

lved

F-1

11

S :

LO

WD

ue

to

exte

nsi

ve

rese

arc

h,

kn

ow

led

ge

an

d

exp

eri

en

ce

on

air

craft

no

w r

esi

den

t in

In

du

stry

,D

STO

an

d,

to

less

er

exte

nt,

th

eR

AA

F

(latt

er

du

e

to

dow

nsi

zin

gan

d d

esk

illi

ng

).

LLoo

ww AA

ccqq

uuii ss

ii ttii oo

nn RR

ii sskkss

JSF :

H

IGH

Po

ten

tial

for

sig

nif

ican

t vari

ati

on

s in

cap

ab

ilit

y,

cost

an

d

sch

ed

ule

ti

meli

nes

wit

h

hig

h

likelih

oo

d

of

curr

en

t ri

sks

mate

riali

sin

g

an

d

furt

her

risk

s ari

sin

geg

. so

ftw

are

pro

ble

ms,

part

ners

leavin

gp

rog

ram

, C

on

gre

ssio

nal in

terc

ess

ion

-1



Cop

yrig

ht ©

Air

Pow

er A

ustra

lia a

nd A

ssoc

iate

s, Se

ptem

ber 2

005

-See

End

Not

e - Ψ

.Pa

ge 7

of 1

0

S c o r e

AU

STR

ALIA

N I

ND

US

TR

Y S

OLU

TIO

N

(PR

OP

OS

ED

20

01

)C

AP

AB

ILIT

Y,

CO

ST,

&

CU

RR

EN

T D

EFEN

CE P

LA

NS

S c o r e+

1 02

00

8 O

nw

ard

sP

RO

JEC

T R

ISK

20

10

TO

20

18

+1 0

-1 12

METR

ICS

20

18

On

ward

s-1

0F/

A-2

2A

:

LO

WS

ince

matu

re,

inp

rod

uct

ion

desi

gn

wit

h

bu

y

at

en

d

of

curr

en

tp

rod

uct

ion

(l

ow

co

st

en

d

wh

en

NR

E

reco

very

an

d

recu

rrin

gen

gin

eeri

ng

(R

E)

cost

s are

at

low

est

levels

).

Incr

ease

of

US

AF

bu

y t

o 3

00

+ u

nit

s

F/

A-1

8A

HU

G :

H

IGH

Hig

h p

rob

ab

ilit

y o

f ad

dit

ion

al

stru

ctu

ral

refu

rbis

hin

g

cost

s,

mo

re

exte

nsi

ve

rect

ific

ati

on

s ari

sin

g

fro

m

firs

t ti

me

deep

er

main

ten

an

ce,

an

d

avio

nic

s/w

eap

on

s u

pg

rad

es

as

furt

her

dela

ys

develo

pm

en

t ch

allen

ges

ari

se

in

JSF

pro

gra

m

-1

0F-1

11

:

LO

W

LLoo

ww CC

oosstt

RRii ss

kkss

JSF :

Very

HIG

H –

un

cert

ain

ties

in t

ota

ln

um

bers

will p

ers

ist

un

til at

least

20

15

-1

0F/

A-2

2A

:

Nil

F/

A-1

8A

HU

G :

M

ED

IUM

LO

W0

0F-1

11

:

LO

WIn

crem

en

tal

up

gra

des

of

leg

acy

avio

nic

s (c

ock

pit

, ra

dar)

an

dle

gacy

syst

em

s (P

ave T

ack

) P

LU

San

en

gin

e u

pg

rad

e i

n t

he 2

01

0 t

o2

02

0 t

ime w

ind

ow

.

LLoo

ww DD

eessii gg

nn RR

ii sskk

JSF :

H

IGH

Rem

ain

s in

develo

pm

en

t w

ith

dif

ficu

ltie

sin

p

erf

orm

an

ce,

weig

ht

an

d

coo

lin

gca

paci

ty

PLU

S

sig

nif

ican

t so

ftw

are

an

dsy

stem

in

teg

rati

on

ch

allen

ges.

-1

0F/

A-2

2A

:

LO

WN

o c

om

para

ble

typ

e e

xis

tsF/

A-1

8A

HU

G :

H

IGH

Ou

tcla

ssed

b

y

Su

kh

oi

Su

-27

/3

0/3

5fi

gh

ters

in

aero

dyn

am

ic

an

d

rad

ar

perf

orm

an

ce

-1

0F-1

11

:

LO

WP

roven

Tie

r 1

str

ike p

latf

orm

LLoo

ww SS

tt rraatt ee

ggii cc

RRii ss

kkss

JSF :

HIG

H –

Tie

r 2

air

craft

ou

tcla

ssed

by

larg

er

Tie

r 1

S

ukh

oi

Su

-27

/3

0/3

5fi

gh

ters

in

aero

dyn

am

ic p

erf

orm

an

ce

-1



Cop

yrig

ht ©

Air

Pow

er A

ustra

lia a

nd A

ssoc

iate

s, Se

ptem

ber 2

005

-See

End

Not

e - Ψ

.Pa

ge 8

of 1

0

S c o r e

AU

STR

ALIA

N I

ND

US

TR

Y S

OLU

TIO

N

(PR

OP

OS

ED

20

01

)C

AP

AB

ILIT

Y,

CO

ST,

&

CU

RR

EN

T D

EFEN

CE P

LA

NS

S c o r e+

1 02

00

8 O

nw

ard

sP

RO

JEC

T R

ISK

20

10

TO

20

18

+1 0

-1 12

METR

ICS

20

18

On

ward

s-1

0F/

A-2

2A

:

No

ne

F/

A-1

8A

HU

G :

S

ign

ific

an

t G

ap

Red

uct

ion

of

pre

cisi

on

mu

nit

ion

sd

elivery

cap

ab

ilit

y b

y u

p t

o 6

2.5

%.

Refe

r Fig

ure

3 o

f P

arl

iam

en

tary

Su

bm

issi

on

, “A

ir C

om

bat

Cap

ab

ilit

y”,

by

A G

Ho

ust

on

, 0

4 J

un

e 2

00

4.

Defe

nce

deci

sio

n t

o e

xcl

ud

e F

-11

1 f

rom

Air

54

18

,h

as

mad

e g

ap

deep

er

an

d w

ider.

-1

+1

F-1

11

:

Alr

ead

y

has

MIL

-17

60

smart

w

eap

on

s b

us

makin

gin

teg

rati

on

o

f A

ir

54

18

FO

SO

Wan

d JD

AM

easy

(a

nd

ch

eap

). Is

no

t d

ep

en

den

t o

n

refu

ellin

gta

nkers

to

p

rovid

e

lon

g

ran

ge

stri

ke c

ap

ab

ilit

y t

o 1

,00

0 N

MI.

NNoo

SStt rr

ii kkee CC

aapp

aabb

ii llii tt

yy GG

aapp

JSF :

O

ng

oin

g G

ap

Up

to

37

.5%

red

uct

ion

com

pare

d w

ith

Defe

nce

20

00

Wh

ite P

ap

er

gu

idan

ce.

-1

+1

F/

A-2

2A

:

No

ne

Su

peri

or

in a

ll r

esp

ect

s to

all

op

po

sin

g a

ircr

aft

9 o

ut

to 2

02

5 a

nd

beyo

nd

.

F/

A-1

8A

H

UG

:

infe

rio

r sp

eed

, ag

ilit

y,

ran

ge

vs

Su

kh

oi

Su

-27

/3

0/

35

;si

gn

ific

an

t d

ep

en

den

cy

on

A

EW

&C

an

dta

nkers

to

pro

vid

e u

sefu

l c

ap

ab

ilit

y

-1

0F-1

11

:R

eq

uir

em

en

t m

et

by F

/A

-22

A a

ird

om

inan

ce f

igh

ter

cap

ab

ilit

ies

NNoo

AAii rr

SSuu

ppeerr ii

oorr ii

tt yy GG

aapp

JSF :

Infe

rio

r sp

eed

, ag

ilit

y,

an

d r

an

ge w

hen

com

pare

d a

gain

st S

ukh

oi S

u-2

7/3

0/

35

fam

ily o

f air

craft

, p

art

icu

larl

y p

ost

20

10

con

fig

ura

tio

ns;

defi

nit

ely

po

st 2

01

5evo

lved

gro

wth

vari

an

ts

-1



Cop

yrig

ht ©

Air

Pow

er A

ustra

lia a

nd A

ssoc

iate

s, Se

ptem

ber 2

005

-See

End

Not

e - Ψ

.Pa

ge 9

of 1

0

S c o r e

AU

STR

ALIA

N I

ND

US

TR

Y S

OLU

TIO

N

(PR

OP

OS

ED

20

01

)C

AP

AB

ILIT

Y,

CO

ST,

&

CU

RR

EN

T D

EFEN

CE P

LA

NS

S c o r e+

1 02

00

8 O

nw

ard

sP

RO

JEC

T R

ISK

20

10

TO

20

18

+1 0

-1 12

METR

ICS

20

18

On

ward

s-1

+1

F/

A-2

2A

:

No

ne

“Th

e

F/

A-2

2

will

be

the

mo

sto

uts

tan

din

g

air

craft

ever

bu

ilt.

Every

fig

hte

r p

ilo

t in

th

e A

ir F

orc

ew

ou

ld d

earl

y lo

ve t

o f

ly it.

”A

ir C

hie

f M

ars

hall A

ng

us

Ho

ust

on

,A

ug

ust

20

04

F/

A-1

8A

HU

G :

C

on

sid

era

ble

Gap

Un

suit

ed

fo

r b

om

ber

an

d c

ruis

e m

issi

led

efe

nce

du

e t

o lim

ited

en

du

ran

ce,

lim

ited

mis

sile

paylo

ad

an

d lim

ited

sup

ers

on

ic s

peed

-1

0F-1

11

:

Evo

lved

F-1

11

ca

pab

ilit

ysu

itab

le

for

bo

mb

er

inte

rcep

t,cr

uis

e

mis

sile

d

efe

nce

an

dIS

R/Ele

ctro

nic

A

ttack

in

ad

dit

ion

to e

stab

lish

ed

str

ike r

ole

s d

ue t

oexce

llen

t en

du

ran

ce,

sup

eri

or

paylo

ad

, h

igh

sp

eed

an

d a

dvan

ced

rad

ar

cap

ab

ilit

y10.

NNoo

AAii rr

DDeeff ee

nnccee GG

aapp

JSF:

un

suit

ed

fo

r b

om

ber

an

d

cru

ise

mis

sile

d

efe

nce

d

ue

to

lim

ited

en

du

ran

ce,

lim

ited

m

issi

le

paylo

ad

an

dlim

ited

su

pers

on

ic

speed

.

Th

eo

pera

tio

nal

JSF

is

inte

nd

ed

to

b

e

ab

att

lefi

eld

str

ike i

nte

rdic

tio

n /

clo

se a

irsu

pp

ort

air

craft

wit

h s

om

e s

elf

defe

nce

cap

ab

ilit

ies11

.

-1

TO

TA

L N

UM

BER

OF M

ETR

ICS

= E

IGH

TEEN

(1

8)

A s

core

of

zero

(0

) m

ean

s th

e a

ir c

om

bat

cap

ab

ilit

y s

yst

em

meets

or

ach

ieves

all t

he d

efi

ned

metr

ics.

A n

eg

ati

ve s

core

mean

s th

e a

ir c

om

bat

cap

ab

ilit

y s

yst

em

fail

s to

meet

on

e o

r m

ore

of

the m

etr

ics.

A p

osi

tive s

core

mean

s th

e c

ap

ab

ilit

y s

yst

em

sig

nif

ican

tly e

xce

ed

s th

e r

eq

uir

em

en

ts o

f o

ne o

r m

ore

of

the m

etr

ics.

INFER

IOR

OU

TC

OM

E-:

20

10

TO

20

18

-16

+7

20

08

On

ward

s

SU

PER

IOR

OU

TC

OM

ENN

EETTTT AA

SSSS

EESS

SSMM

EENN

TTSS

CCOO

RREE TT

OOTTAA

LLSS

INFER

IOR

OU

TC

OM

E :

20

18

On

ward

s-1

3



Cop

yrig

ht ©

Air

Pow

er A

ustra

lia a

nd A

ssoc

iate

s, Se

ptem

ber 2

005

-See

End

Not

e - Ψ

.Pa

ge 1

0 of

10

END

NO

TES

:

1

Allo

catio

n of

scor

es b

ased

on

a Pa

ram

etric

Ana

lysi

s Sco

ring

Syst

em w

hich

use

s –1,

0 a

nd +

1 as

a w

ay o

f est

ablis

hing

an

obje

ctiv

e m

eans

of c

ompa

rison

. D

efen

ce sh

ould

be in

vite

d to

subm

it its

ow

n sc

ores

, usi

ng th

is sy

stem

in k

eepi

ng w

ith th

e fo

llow

ing

guid

ance

:+1

Subj

ect m

odel

sign

ifica

ntly

sign

ifica

ntly

exc

eeds

the

requ

irem

ent b

y so

me

degr

ee o

r em

bodi

es m

ore

than

the

stat

ed m

etric

; 0

Subj

ect m

odel

mee

ts th

e st

ated

met

ric o

r the

met

ric is

not

app

licab

le to

that

mod

el; a

nd,

–1Su

bjec

t mod

el d

oes n

ot a

chie

ve o

r em

body

the

stat

ed m

etric

.2

Res

pons

e to

Def

ence

Req

uest

for P

ropo

sal –

“Pr

ojec

t Air

6000

For

ce M

ix O

ptio

n M

arke

t Sur

vey”

, DTC

Air

6000

Tec

hnol

ogy

Gro

up S

ubm

issi

on o

f 25

Janu

ary

2002

and

supp

ortin

g pr

oprie

tary

Indu

stry

Pro

posa

ls su

bmitt

ed in

acc

orda

nce

with

the

Def

ence

Cap

abili

ty S

yste

ms L

ife C

ycle

Man

agem

ent G

uide

, Dec

embe

r 200

1, a

fter m

eetin

gw

ith A

ir600

0 Pr

ojec

t Off

ice

pers

onne

l who

soug

ht fu

rther

, det

aile

d in

form

atio

n to

supp

ort t

heir

reco

mm

enda

tion

of th

e Ev

olve

d F-

111

Opt

ion

for S

tage

3 o

f Air

6000

.3

AM

AR

C –

Aer

ospa

ce M

aint

enan

ce a

nd R

e-ge

nera

tion

Cen

ter a

t Dav

is-M

onth

an A

FB, T

ucso

n, A

rizon

a, U

SA. O

ver 2

00 F

-111

s rem

ain

mot

hbal

led

at A

MA

RC

.4

Sinc

e th

e ex

perts

in c

ompu

ter s

cien

ce (i

n pa

rticu

lar,

in th

e ar

tific

ial i

ntel

ligen

ce d

omai

n) c

an’t

agre

e on

whe

n th

e ca

pabi

lity

for s

afe

and

effe

ctiv

e au

tono

mou

s ope

ratio

n of

high

risk

, let

hal a

sset

s in

dem

andi

ng, h

ostil

e en

viro

nmen

ts (s

uch

as e

xper

ienc

ed in

air

com

bat)

is g

oing

to b

e po

ssib

le, w

ith p

redi

ctio

ns ra

ngin

g fr

om 1

5 ye

ars t

o 50

yea

rstim

e to

nev

er, i

t wou

ld b

e fa

ncifu

l and

was

tefu

l let

alo

ne n

aïve

for t

he n

on e

xper

t to

com

mit

thei

r int

egrit

y an

d pu

blic

reso

urce

s to

a da

te in

tim

e.5

The

F/A

-22A

’s A

PG-7

7 ra

dar a

nd th

e JS

F’s A

PG-8

1 ra

dar s

hare

tran

smit-

rece

ive

mod

ule

tech

nolo

gy, c

ompu

ter p

roce

ssin

g te

chno

logy

, pac

kagi

ng te

chno

logy

, and

mul

timod

e ca

pabi

litie

s, ho

wev

er, t

he F

/A-2

2A’s

APG

-77

is m

uch

mor

e po

wer

ful,

prov

idin

g tw

ice

the

dete

ctio

n fo

otpr

int o

f the

JSF’

s APG

-81

rada

r. W

hile

the

F/A

-22A

’sA

PG-7

7 ra

dar p

rovi

des e

xcel

lent

bom

bing

cap

abili

ty, i

t rem

ains

the

mos

t cap

able

air

to a

ir ra

dar e

ver b

uilt.

Con

vers

ely,

whi

le th

e JS

F’s A

PG-8

1 ra

dar p

rovi

des

resp

ecta

ble

air t

o ai

r rad

ar c

over

age

capa

bilit

y, it

is b

eing

opt

imis

ed a

s a b

ombe

r rad

ar to

mee

t the

Join

t Ope

ratio

nal R

equi

rem

ents

Doc

umen

t (JO

RD

) and

CA

IV.

6 D

efen

ce A

nnua

l Rep

orts

199

9 to

200

4 in

clus

ive,

stat

utor

y fin

anci

als;

Def

ence

Cap

abili

ty P

lan

2001

-10

and

subs

eque

nt in

clud

ing

anal

ysis

of a

ctiv

ities

in c

urre

nt d

raft;

RA

AF

Air

Com

bat C

apab

ility

Pap

er –

A H

oust

on, 0

4 Ju

ne 2

004;

ASP

I Stra

tegi

c In

sigh

t – ‘I

s the

JSF

good

eno

ugh’

– A

Hou

ston,

Aug

ust 2

004;

A

ir Po

wer

Aus

tralia

-A

FA

REW

ELL

TO A

RM

S - R

EVIS

ITED

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http://www.dm.af.mil/AMARC/

http://www.defence.gov.au/annualreports/

http://www.defence.gov.au/dmo/id/dcp/dcp.cfm

http://www.ausairpower.net/FTAR-PAG-180404.pdf

http://www.ausairpower.net/NACC-Defender-Winter-2005.pdf

http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/jfadt/defenceannualreport_2002_2003/subs/sub4.pdf

http://www.ausairpower.net/SR-ADF-2003-Submission.pdf

http://www.ausairpower.net/SR-ADF-2003-Rationale.pdf

www.ausairpower.net

7 Annex C - Analysis Predictions Provided to Defence (Since May 1998) 141

7 Annex C - Analysis Predictions Provided to Defence (SinceMay 1998)

1. The impact of acquisitions of Su-27SK by China and Su-30MKI by India was accurately pre-dicted. An unpredicted development was the acquisition of the Su-30MKM series by Malaysia.

2. Acquisitions of Su-30MKK by China were accurately predicted. An unpredicted developmentwas the development and acquisition of the Su-30MK2 by the PLA Navy air arm.

3. Acquisitions of A-50 derivative AEW&C aircraft by China and India were accurately predicted.Unpredicted developments were the current intent by Malaysia to acquire AEW&C aircraft,US intervention to block Israel’s sale of the A-50I to China, and US approval of the sale ofthe A-50I to India.

4. Acquisitions of Il-78 Midas derivative tanker aircraft by China and India were accurately pre-dicted. An unpredicted development was the deployment of several squadrons of indigenousChinese H-6U/DU tanker aircraft.

5. Acquisitions of further S-300 variant long range Surface-to-Air Missile systems in the widerregion were predicted. Indonesia’s interest in the S-300PMU series was not predicted.

6. Sukhoi Su-27/30 radar signature reduction measures were accurately predicted.

7. Sukhoi Su-30 N-011M BARS phased array radar capabilities were understated. The Su-27NIIP Pero phased array block upgrade to the NIIP N-001 radar was not predicted.

8. The Su-27SKU digital glass cockpit upgrade was correctly predicted.

9. The regional proliferation of ‘counter-AWACS’ variants of the Kh-31R missile was correctlypredicted.

10. The regional proliferation of ‘counter-AWACS’ variants of the KS-172 missile was correctlypredicted. India’s intent for co-production of the KS-172 was not predicted.

11. The susceptibility of the Wedgetail AEW&C to long range ‘counter-AWACS’ missiles wasaccurately predicted.

12. The emergence of anti-radiation variants of the Russian R-77 (AA-12) BVR missile was cor-rectly predicted, but the development of heat-seeking variants was not predicted.

13. The emergence of the improved OLS-30 Infra Red Search Track set on the Su-30MK wascorrectly predicted.

14. The emergence of third generation optical seeker technology for the Russian R-73/74 familyof WVR missiles was not predicted.

15. Strike capability growth in the F-22A was correctly predicted, but did not predict the extentof this growth, or planning to make all intended 380 F-22A fully strike capable.

16. The emergence of the FB-22A strike aircraft was not predicted.


7 Annex C - Analysis Predictions Provided to Defence (Since May 1998) 142

17. The limitations in air combat capability in the Joint Strike Fighter were accurately predicted,as were the underlying reasons for this being so. The emergence of the ‘Export Joint StrikeFighter’ variant with reduced stealth was not predicted.

18. The potential for the F-111 to be operated well beyond 2020 was not predicted. This was laterdetermined as one of the results of the Sole Operator Program and is one of the cornerstonesof the subsequent ‘Evolved F-111’ proposals.

19. The potential for the B-1B and F-111 to be retrofitted with supersonic cruise engines wasnot predicted. This was later presented in the ‘Evolved F-111’ proposal entitled ‘Super Cruiseand the F-111’ and more recently for the B-1B in the Boeing response to the USAF RFI forInterim Long Range Strike Capabilities.


8 Annex D - Adverse Effects of Early F-111 Retirement 143

8 Annex D - Adverse Effects of Early F-111 Retirement

Figure 54: RAAF F-111C departing Amberley for Red Flag exercise in the US, January, 2006(Defence PR).

1. Adverse Capability Effects.

(a) A ≈50% reduction in aggregate RAAF striking power available.

(b) Loss of primary long range land strike capability.

(c) Loss of primary long range maritime strike capability.

(d) Loss of high payload battlefield strike capability (Each F-111 ≈ 12

B-52H heavy bombercapability).

(e) Loss of unrefuelled persistent battlefield strike capability.

(f) Loss of unrefuelled persistent Combat Air Patrol capability for dealing with terroristhijackings.

(g) Loss of potential unrefuelled persistent Combat Air Patrol capability for cruise missileinterception.

(h) Significant increase in F/A-18A fatigue life consumption should regional contingencyarise.

(i) Significant increase in tanker fatigue life consumption should regional contingency arise.

(j) Loss of primary airborne systems and weapons integration engineering capability at Am-berley WSBU.

(k) Loss of primary engineering capability to execute ‘ageing aircraft program’ techniques onRAAF platforms.


8 Annex D - Adverse Effects of Early F-111 Retirement 144

2. Adverse Strategic Effects.

(a) As regional Sukhoi Su-27/30 numbers and proficiency increase, a ‘strategic inversion’ ofthe deterrence relationship will arise - regional nations could challenge Australian regionalintervention.

(b) Loss of primary strategic deterrence tool for dealing with potentially hostile future regimesacross wider region.

(c) In scenario with high risk of terrorist hijackings, F/A-18 and B-707 fleet too small toprotect all capitals without F-111 support.

(d) Likely perception in US strategic circles that Australia is emulating the behaviour of EUNATO nations which downsized critical defence capabilities and shifted that burden onto the US force structure.

(e) Loss of single highest value combat contribution to US-led coalition air campaigns.

(f) Loss of capability to rapidly integrate and test new weapons on RAAF aircraft - cfUK in Falklands and US in Afghanistan rapidly adding new weapon types in urgentcontingencies.

3. Adverse Industrial Base Effects.

(a) Reduced engineering capability to extend life of other RAAF platforms using ‘ageingaircraft program’ techniques - F-111 provides ‘critical mass’.

(b) Loss of opportunities for domestic industry to effect import replacement through in-country upgrades on F-111 thus impacting balance of payments.

(c) Loss of opportunity to inoculate domestic aerospace industry sector and associated sys-tems integration industry sector from post September, 2001, global downturn.

(d) Loss of opportunities to further add value, and further leverage the vast materiel andintellectual investment the taxpayer has made in the F-111 and its support capabilities.

(e) Significant loss of employment in domestic systems integration and aerospace industrysector, including training positions.


9 Annex E - Sources and Bibliography 145

9 Annex E - Sources and Bibliography

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4. Fisher R D Jr (2002), ‘CHINA BUYS NEW RUSSIAN DESTROYERS’, CHINA BRIEF, Vol-ume 2 Issue 3, The Jamestown Foundation, January 31, http://www.jamestown.org/

publications_details.php?volume_id=18&issue_id=643&article_id=4609, accessedJanuary 2005.

5. Fisher R D Jr (2002), ‘CHINA’S CARRIER OF CHANCE’, CHINA BRIEF, Volume 2 Issue6, The Jamestown Foundation, March 14, http://www.jamestown.org/publications_

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http://aimpoints.hq.af.mil/display.cfm?id=2496


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Figure 55: RAAF F-111C aircraft during the February, 2006, Red Flag exercise in the United States(US Air Force)

End of Submission


submission no 20 part 4 - aph.gov.au

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