sudan climate change- balgis elasha
TRANSCRIPT
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
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By
Dr. Balgis Osman- Elasha
Photo: by Dr. Mohamed El
Gamri /Sudan University-
Khartoum
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Table of contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................................................... 5
1 STATE OF ENVIRONMENT IN SUDAN ...................................................................................................... 12
2. CURRENT SCIENCE ...................................................................................................................................... 15
2.1 CURRENT VARIABILITY AND VULNERABILITY TO VARIABILITY .................................................................. 15
2.2 PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE ....................................................................................................................... 19
3) PHYSICAL AND SOCIO ECONOMIC IMPACTS & IMPLICATIONS ................................................. 23
3.1 AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY ................................................................................................. 23
3.2 HUMAN HEALTH ......................................................................................................................................... 26
3.3 WATER RESOURCES AND NILE ECOSYSTEM .................................................................................... 28
3.4 IMPLICATION FOR CONFLICTS AND MIGRATION TRENDS ......................................................... 31
4) ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT ...................................................................................................................... 35
4.1 ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE (AICC-AF14)
PROJECT .............................................................................................................................................................. 36
5. EARLY WARNING AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTING ..................................................................... 37
6. SHORT TERM RELIEF VERSUS LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT ....................................................... 42
7) CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................................... 45
8) RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................................................. 49
9. ANNEXES ......................................................................................................................................................... 54
1 UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH DATA ............................................................................................................ 58 2. UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH USE OF SCENARIOS
58 2.1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS ........................................................................................................................ 58 3. UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE USE OF IMPACT MODELS....................................................................... 60
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5. SUMMARY OF THE SUDAN’S FIRST NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS REPORT ........................ 72
5.1 BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................................................. 72
5.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE SUDAN'S NC ........................................................................................................ 72
5.3 VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT ......................................................................................... 74
5.3.1 STUDY AREA ............................................................................................................................................ 75
5.3.2 USE OF SCENARIOS ................................................................................................................................. 76
5.3.3 V&A ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL AND FORESTRY PRODUCTION ............................ 76
5.3.4 WATER RESOURCES ....................................................................................................................................... 78
5.3.5 HUMAN HEALTH .................................................................................................................................... 79
5.7. FUTURE PERSPECTIVES/ WHAT IS NEEDED TO IMPROVE THE UTILITY OF FNC? ....................................... 80
6. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE-RELATED INITIATIVES (SEE TABLE 4 FOR A COMPLETE
LIST OF RELATED INITIATIVES) ................................................................................................................. 81
6.1 AIACC-AF14 ................................................................................................................................................... 81 6.2 SUDAN NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN OF ACTION (NAPA) ........................................................................ 81
7. REGIONAL INITIATIVES ............................................................................................................................. 82
ANNEX (16) ........................................................................................................................................................... 84
8. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................ 84
ANNEX (18) ........................................................................................................................................................... 94
TABLE (4) LIST OF CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED INITIATIVES IN SUDAN ................................... 94
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Acknowledgements
This work was funded under DfID contract and TOR.
The views expressed in this paper are the sole opinion of the author
who takes full responsibility for errors and omissions.
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Executive Summary
This report aims to provide information on climate change impacts and adaptation in Sudan, based
on the findings of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Study under the Sudan's 1st.. National
Communication (2003), The Sudan AIACC1-AF 14 project (Environmental Strategies to Increase
Community's Resilience to the Impacts of Climate Change) and the National Adaptation Program of
Actions (NAPA). It also aimed at reviewing other relevant literature and reports from local regional
an international sources on Sudan, in addition to post 2003 reports in Africa focusing e.g. on IPCC-
AR4, and TAR
Climatic pressures
Like many of the sub-Sahara countries, Sudan is a country of inherently fragile ecosystems,
high climatic variability, frequent droughts and floods and ongoing desertification. Climatic
records and literature pointed out the fact that historically Sudan has faced a number of
climate extremes that have increased the fragility of its ecosystems and in turn livelihoods.
Of its diverse ecological zones, more than half the country can be classified as desert or
semi-desert, with another quarter, arid savannah; much of the country’s land area is
considered highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation.. Beside major
drought events that have engulfed the whole country, Sudan has also experienced a series of
localized droughts, often every two years, mainly in western Sudan in Kordofan and Darfur
regions and parts of the central Sudan. These are widely known to have contributed to
fuelling of the prolonged civil conflicts that have had a devastating effect on the rural
population.
The results extracted from climate scenarios for Kordofan region in Western Sudan indicated
that average temperatures are expected to rise significantly relative to baseline expectations,
e.g. by 2060 a warming is projected in the range of 1.5°C to 3.1°C, during August to 1.1°C to
2.1°C during the month of January. Projections of rainfall under future climate change
conditions also shows sharp deviations from baseline expectations. Results from some of the
models show average rainfall decreases of about 6 mm/month during the rainy season.
However, there is still much uncertainty implicit in the choice of GCM and greenhouse gas
forcing scenarios; an uncertainty further compounded by the additional complications
Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors 1
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introduced by downscaling. These uncertainties need to be addressed through the use of
regional circulation models and to develop national capacities in relation to generation and use
of climate models.
It is evident that, the effects of climate variability and change are real with impacts already
affecting Sudan's ecosystems and human health. The negative impacts associated with climate
change are also compounded by many factors, including widespread poverty, conflicts and
human diseases. Under the previously-mentioned projected climate change, changes in
temperature and precipitation could further affect the productive capacity of rainfed
agriculture, and thus, in the security of the nation’s food supply. Sudan is thus faced with a
pressing challenge of addressing the national priorities of food security, water supply, and
public health.. The ability for long term projection as well as short term anticipation of how
climate will change from one year to the next will lead to better management of agriculture,
water supplies, and other resources. Moreover, by incorporating climate change into
management decisions, human livelihood systems would become better adapted to the
variability and changing rhythms of climate.
.Non- Climatic pressures
Significant pressure are been excreted on Sudan's fragile urban environment resulting from a
rapidly growing urban population in the absence of national land use planning and
development, weak infrastructures and increasing un-employment and poverty rates.
Furthermore, the increasing rural-urban migration resulted in abandoning of agricultural land,
declining agricultural productivity and threatening food security and rural livelihoods. This
situation is exacerbated by the increasing number of IDPs due to civil strife and conflicts in
the south and Darfur.
Key findings
A range of risks associated with climate change are expected to affect the livelihoods of
people in Sudan. These include both direct and indirect ones resulting from the rising
temperature, the expected decrease in rainfall and related problems. The livelihoods of poor
communities living in fragile environment are likely to be most affected by changes in the
frequency of extreme climate events particularly floods, droughts and high temperatures.
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The increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall is expected to lower the quality of
traditional rangelands, resulting in reduced productivity of pastures for grazing livestock. In
addition, large areas of rainfed agricultural land would suffer these changes. A southward
shift of the Gum arabic belt (Acacia senegal trees) has also been observed indicating a
prevalence of a dryer condition northward. It is evident that many knowledge gaps exist in
relation to projection of impacts in the different regions of the Sudan and the different sectors.
This emphasized the need for further assessment of potential impacts on e.g. irrigated
agriculture, urban and rural livelihoods as well as for identifying options to decrease
vulnerability to climate change in a holistic and integrated manner.
Climate change vulnerability analysis
Different national and regional V&A studies in Sudan and Africa (UNFCCC, 2006, IPCC,
2007). 1st.National communication and the Sudan's National Adaptation Plan of Action
(NAPA) study (NAPA, 2007), have shed light on the link between climate and livelihoods in
Sudan. They have also identified water resources, food security and human health as major
climate change-related concerns for the country.
The First National Communications of Sudan (NC, 2003) offers a more detailed picture of
local vulnerability, using future scenarios of temperature and precipitation to model impacts
on agriculture. It represented the first attempt to explore the relation between the observed
impacts on natural and human systems and past and current climate variability, as well as
exploring the potential impacts of future climate change on the different sectors over one of
the most important regions of Sudan.-Kordofan- as an area depending mainly on rainfed
agriculture, with the traditional farmers and pastoralists being the most vulnerable and the
least resilient groups to climate-related variability and shocks In this key agricultural region,
production of sorghum and millet food crops - critical to food security - was found to decline
significantly by the years 2030 and 2060.2 Clearly, both the challenges and the urgency to
identify adaptation options for reducing adverse effects, highlight the linkages between the
impacts on different natural resources sectors and other environmental, socio-economic
consequences of climate change.
2 Government of Sudan (forthcoming) (2002) First National Communications under the UNFCCC.
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Some studies projected a reduction of Nile water flows by as much as twenty five percent
from climate change over the next twenty to forty years. In such case, serious security
implications .could be expected on irrigated agriculture such as the Gezira irrigation scheme
(one of the largest in Africa) in central Sudan, and the Nile Reverie agriculture in the
Northern states of Sudan.. Scenario of reduction in the water resources, coupled with
economic development and increases in population, may also trigger conflict between the
different countries sharing the basin.
The growing threat to vulnerable communities is particularly vital in the face of declining
development assistance. Responses by governments and organizations to climate variability
have tended to be reactive in nature, and the types of options considered have tended to
depend on relief and post disaster mitigation rather than planned adaptation measures. It is
found that inspite, of more than 20 years of relief and emergency food in the region of eastern
Sudan, still the region faces a very high malnutrition rates (the highest in the country)
indicating a lack of real improvement in the state of chronic livelihoods vulnerability that
characterizes peoples of the region—particularly pastoralists. It also indicates that the
provision of free food aid is not an adequate strategy to address the needs either of the
refugees, or of the other vulnerable communities. Local community groups started to view
this approach as unsustainable, undermined their traditional coping capacity and contributed
to the creation of relief –dependent groups highlighting the needs for adopting a more
developmental approach.
The increasing climate variability and change (drought and land degradation), and the
consequent impact on the overall agricultural productivity and food security resulted in
serious competition over the resources and conflicts which have mostly been triggered by
resource- related rivals and disputes over water and fodder, cattle theft, access to land, and
grazing fields. It is moreover, obvious that the on-going conflict in Darfur is increasingly
impacting food supply and access to food insecure areas in the region. The result is more
migration and displacements. A situation that is expected to worsen under climate change,
triggering a more movement across the country and between boundaries.
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Coping capacity
A number of studies revealed that some options (coping strategies) proved successful in
increasing the adaptive capacity of the local communities in the face of climate variability.
They have also contributed to improving their abilities to manage their livelihood assets and
gaining a number of positive and tangible outcomes. The options identified include;
improved water harvesting and storage, diversification of livelihoods, creation of alternative
income sources, increased savings and purchasing power, better grain production and storage
facility, and access to markets. The findings from different adaptation studies e.g. AIACC
study could help influence Sudan’s key decision-makers toward adopting practical means of
adaptation to adverse climatic conditions – mainly drought- and demonstrate the essence of
integrating climate adaptation with broader development policies. However, a more
integrated approach is needed if these options for addressing climate change impacts are to
be integrated with other national and sectoral development policies and work programmes
Climate prediction and early warning: In the past 20 years considerable progress has been
made in improving systems for providing short-term forecasts on extreme weather events,
which allows timely action to be taken in the realm of disaster management. Yet there is
also a need for information systems to support longer-term risk assessment and monitoring.
Many gaps related to the accessibility, content, language and format of information have
been identified and need to be addressed. There is also a need to improve the preparedness
and ability to response in a more timely manner.
Recommendations
There is an urgent need to address current vulnerability to climate variability in Sudan.
Policy makers from national governments and donor organizations should not to be
discouraged by the many uncertainties linked to projections of future climatic changes.
Practical actions are urgently needed to address emerging adaptation needs of vulnerable
communities and sectors. Actions to be implemented should support a broad-based resilience
building with no-regret interventions.
Climate variability and change need to be factored into all aspects of development planning,
by government and donor organizations. This would contribute to achievement of societal and
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environmental .resilience as well as the achievement of important sustainable development
goals (e.g. MDGs).
It is also important to involve different stakeholders in all efforts and programs aiming at
addressing climate change impacts and adaptation at the different levels. Of particular
importance is the facilitation of NGOs participation in national and international climate
change activities, policy forums, education and training, and dissemination of public
information.
A new policy is required by donor communities and relief organizations for disaster
mitigation and for tackling recurrent food emergencies through linking relief resources with
development interventions. Reducing people’s vulnerability to expected climatic hazards and
to increase their coping capacity should be considered as one of the main objectives of any
development planning.
The direct link between resource use, climate variability and conflicts calls for strategies that
aim at achieving peace and security through tackling the root causes and addressing
environmental and social pressures instead of the ineffective military solutions that only deals
with the symptoms and disregards the many contributing factors. One way to achieve a
sustained stability could be through factoring in climate change implications into conflict
resolution and peace building processes Efforts should also be made to create an enabling
environment for a more targeted regional and international cooperation in climate-related
transboundary issues e.g. the increasing pressure on water resources calls for the development
of international cooperative mechanisms to manage shared water resources such as. the Nile
Basin Initiative.
Climate variability and change could trigger additional resource-based conflicts and disputes.
This could adversely impact the number and distribution of refugees and Infernally Displaced
People (IDPs), the delivery of humanitarian assistance as well as any proposed new recovery
and development programmes. It is therefore, important to integrate climate change into
multi-donor planning processes such as UN Workplan / (UN, 2007), and partners in Sudan
MDTF- WFP.
Efforts need to be made to disseminate available information on potential adaptation options
identified under different climate change- related studies. Practical adaptation options
successful experiences could then be replicated/ up-scaled to other regions of the country
particularly highly vulnerable poverty-laden parts.
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There is a need for national governments and donor organizations to adopt a coordinated risk
assessment approach, that assess the risk, identify the vulnerability and develops a longer term
strategy that incorporate disaster prevention and management in the development planning
process rather than simply reacts to offset negative impacts after they occur.
Given the intimate link between climate and sustainable development, there is a need to
improve seasonal forecasting on time scales from months to a year and the provision of
probabilistic climate information. Moreover there is a need to broaden the public
understanding of climate change (impacts and responses) in Sudan, and to provide adequate
resources and expertise in handling climate issues within the country. It is equally important
to improve the technical capacity of national institutions -producers and users- of climatic
forecasts and early warning information, in order to enhance the output, uptake, and use of
climate products. Additionally, there is a need to develop an improved system of information
and product dissemination and feedback between the national, sub-regional and regional
partners.
Resources are needed to address the methodology and data gaps identified by previous
assessments and studies, and to develop the technical capacity and skills necessary to
undertake vulnerability and adaptation assessment using sophisticated modeling and remote
sensing techniques. Special emphasis should be given to these important research areas on
economic implications of climatic impacts as well as and evaluation of adaptation options in
terms of e.g., cost- effectiveness, applicability and accessibility.
Financial and technical support is needed for human as well as institutional capacity building
to access international funds though e.g. preparation of fundable proposals that could attract
donors' investments in climate change projects.
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1 State of Environment in Sudan
Sudan has a total area of approximately 2,505,810 square kilometers (967,499 sq mi),
including desert and water bodies.), making it the largest country on the continent of Africa.
This area lies between 4-22°N and 22- 36°E. The span over 18 degrees of latitude has given
Sudan its characteristic variety of environments, hence diverse ecosystem and biological life.
It is endowed with vast natural resources extending from desert in the north to tropical rain
forest in the South. The country borders the Red Sea, Eritrea and Ethiopia to the east; Kenya,
Uganda and Democratic Republic of Congo to the south; the Central Africa Republic and
Chad to the west; and Libya and Egypt to the north. The land area is comprised primarily of
flat plains, rising in the East and West to mountain ranges, with the Nile River and its
tributaries comprising most of the hydrology of the country. (See annex 9 map of Sudan).
Water resources is one of the most critical issue in many parts of the country specially the
Western and Eastern parts. More than 40%, of the people suffers from a shortage of good
quality water for drinking, and sufficient quantity for farming. This water deficiency is the
result of natural factors such as erratic rainfall and drought as well as lack of rural
development and consequently a key driver for poverty, poor health and rural-urban
migration. The government development project in the water sector focused on exploitation
of ground water through artesian wells and the utilization of rivers water through the
establishment of large scale dams. Both programs need a systematic evaluation to ensure that
this development is environmentally sustainable and the impacts on the livelihoods of local
communities are taken into consideration.
Climatic records and literature pointed out the fact that historically Sudan has faced a
number of climate extremes that have increased the fragility of its ecosystems and in turn
livelihoods. The climatic variability has been particularly evident in the wide fluctuations in
precipitation patterns and other related environmental hazards that prevailed over the past
several decades leading to soil erosion and desertification problems. .
Severe droughts have already lead to serious degradation in the arid land of northern Sudan,
estimated at fifty one percent (about 1,259,440 square kilometers)3 between latitude 10 to 18
degrees north. This zone is characterized by extreme arid conditions continuously fed by
3 Sudan National Action Plan to Combat Desertification (SNAP), p. 15
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recurrent drought, land degradation, deforestation, soil nutrient loss. This was illustrated by
a study conducted by the National Drought and Desertification Unit (NDDU), which showed
a gradual shift of the rainfall isohyets during the period 1930-1990 from north to south,
indicating the southward expansion of arid condition and the subsequent decline in crop
production and natural vegetation cover (forests and rangeland), (NDDU, 2006).
The severity of impacts resulting from these climate-related incidents could also be
attributed to the multiplied effect of many other non-climatic factors, including the general,
low level of economic development, and the lack of alternative income generating
opportunities especially for rural people who largely depends on natural resources for their
livelihoods, in addition to the lack of adapted technologies (Osman-Elasha, 2007).
Other human-induced vulnerability includes; the poor management and over exploitation of
the natural resources, institutional and policy failure. With the main drivers being; the
accelerated population growth, rural poverty, insufficient knowledge and awareness of
environmental issues; disruption of socioeconomic systems and the increasing number of
refugees and IDPS due to past and on-going conflicts.
In many areas of Sudan forests resources have been severely depleted, due to heavy
dependence on fuelwood, charcoal and log timber in addition to expansion of mechanized
agriculture. Deforestation rates across the country have been calculated at greater than 1.8%
per annum and cumulative losses exceed 70% in central, north and east Sudan. The net result
is large-scale deforestation, land degradation and soil erosion. These factors have contributed
to rural poverty in the marginal dry-land areas leading to large scale migration Without
major actions on halting the wave of degradation and restoring the productivity of the land,
the natural resource base will simply continue to deteriorate whilst demands grows. If this
occurs, much of the Sudan would be expected to face a state of chronic poverty and conflicts,
such as the one occurring now in Darfur. (HCENR/UNEP, 2007).
Agriculture in Sudan is a combination of subsistent farming and production of cash crops.
The latter is generally characterized as market-oriented of irrigated or rainfed large scale
farms. Agricultural production remains the country's most important sector, accounting for an
output of more than 70% of all non-oil exports over 2001-2005 periods. With around 32
million feddans of arable land (4.4 million fed irrigated), the sector provides employment for
approximately 80% of the work force and contributing to 39% of GDP. Rainfed farming
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accounts for 70 % of all agriculture, farming basically based on shifting cultivation and
animal husbandry. The rainfed sector is characterized by low productivity and vulnerability
to climate variability. This vulnerability is expected to adversely affect all prospects for
future food security. With more than 137 million animal heads, livestock represent an
important component of the agricultural sector. Livestock production is mainly based on
traditional pastoral systems (90 percent of the livestock in the country belong to the
traditional pastoral production systems). Pastoral societies particularly in western Sudan have
always been relatively vulnerable climate variability particularly erratic rainfall and drought
which frequently lead to big losses on their animals and subsequently their livelihoods.
Traditionally, those pasturalists stick to some social values and norms which give more
appreciation and respect to people with large number of animals. This repeatedly–
particularly during periods of good rainy season- has resulted in increasing livestock
population beyond the carrying capacity of the pasture land. The resultant land degradation
and desertification have commonly triggered competition between pastoralists and farmers
over the already declining resources, which in many times had turned into local disputes and
conflicts.
The conflicts, drought and rural poverty had created a huge number of displaced people,
totaling approximately five million. This have created a range of environmental impacts
including the generation of random settlements and urban slums, water shortage, lack of
basic services, environmental sanitation problems, deforestation and environmental
degradation surrounding settlements and tree removal leading to deforestation.
94% of Sudan’s population is considered below the poverty line. The human Poverty Index
(HPI) value for Sudan is 32.4%, ranks the 59th among 103 developing countries for which
the index has been calculated.4 (Yale, 2005). Liberalization of the economy without the
necessary social safety nets is blamed for this high level of poverty. This was further justified
by (Bior, 2000), who noted that the fruit of economic growth has benefited only a few
minority leaving the majority languishing in poverty. However, poverty has always been
linked to climate-related factors particularly drought, a fact documented in both historical
and contemporary records of famines in Sudan and other neighbouring countries. The records
explained that environmentally degraded areas, where the poor mostly live have always been
4 Human Development Report 1997 introduced the human poverty index (HPI), which focuses on the proportion of people below a
threshold level in basic dimensions of human development - living a long and healthy life, having access to education, and a decent
standard of living, much as the poverty headcount measures the proportion of people below a certain income level. The HPI-1 measures
human poverty in developing countries
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the most vulnerable areas to natural disasters, particularly droughts, sand storms and crop
failures, and their subsequent impacts which range from hunger to severe famine and death.
It worth mentioning here that, many other non-climatic factors had persistently contributed to
increasing the vulnerability and suffering of people living in these areas, including; the low
coping capacity, poor livelihood capitals, limited access to modern agricultural inputs and
alternative income sources. A study conducted by (Ali., (2002), noted that to achieve the
MDG on poverty Sudan's GDP needs to grow by an annual rate of 7.2 per cent, requiring an
investment rate ranging from 35% to 42% of GDP. It further concluded that a reasonable
horizon for reducing Sudan's poverty by half would be 28 years starting from 2001, i.e.
almost double the horizon implied by the MDGs.
According to the Environment Protection Law, 2001, all newly proposed development
project are mandated to undertake an environmental impact assessment (EIA). However, this
is not always the case as many large development projects tend to escape this process,
specially those which have the political support and government blessing (e.g. oil exploration
and refining), and consequently, the social and environmental impacts of such investment are
not usually considered. Moreover, and due to many factors including technical, institutional,
and financial constraints, the reinforcement of the law is still constrained.
2. Current scientific knowledge
2.1 Current variability and vulnerability to variability
Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of climate change as the majority of its land
is quite vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation as well as to extreme
climatic conditions such as floods and droughts that have occurred throughout its recorded
history. The 2nd
. Half of the 19th
. Century has particularly witnessed a pattern of declining
rainfall culminating in the wide-spread 83-84s drought. However, the observed declining
trends of rainfall over Sudan could be attributed to many factors ranging from an irregular
pattern of climate variability, occurring naturally or due to human induced factors -e.g.
over exploitation of natural resources- to a strong signal of global and regional climatic
changes.
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Climate variability in Sudan –mainly drought- have tended to concentrate in the arid and
semi-arid zones of the west and northeast, where the rainfall is erratic, agricultural
environment is marginal, the resource base poor, and the income and asset base of the
population are thin and variable (Osman, 2007). The country's inherent vulnerability
may best be captured by the fact that more than 70% of its population is directly
dependant on climate sensitive resources for their living with their food security mainly
determined by rainfall. Between 1961 and 1998, a number of drought episodes have
inflicted Sudan with varying severity and impacts. The most severe droughts have
always known by their devastating impacts on people's livelihood as well as their wide
scars in the face Sudan's economy. Examples are the droughts of the early mid 1970s
and ten years later of the early mid 1980s, which have brought about a number of
strikingly negative impacts, ranging from the loss of lives and property to the break
down of social fabric and traditional tribal structures, and ultimately the mass migration
of rural population to urban areas. Table 1 below shows the vulnerability situation in
the different geographical areas of Sudan.
Beside major drought events that have engulfed the whole country, Sudan has also
experienced a series of localized droughts, often every two years, mainly in western
Sudan in Kordofan and Darfur regions and parts of the central Sudan. The
meteorological records show an increased degree of variability over these particular
parts. For example, in western Sudan variability of annual rainfall increased from 16
percent in the 1960s to 21 percent in the 1970s and 32 percent in the.80s. These
observed changes could likely be attributed to the relatively slight global warming of the
late 20th century, (IPCC 2001b). Due to the high vulnerability of these regions, in many
cases drought has been followed by famine. The two greatest famines since 1684, when
the historical record begins, are those of 1888-89 and 1984-85. Both were triggered by
consecutive years of poor rain that led to massive crop. Failure. (See annex 2 and annex
7 for rainfall variability).
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Table (1)
Vulnerability situation and priority areas for interventions across Sudan (2007) Source: Adapted from WFP, 2006 Sudan Annual Needs Assessment/ Food Security Report and a meeting with WFP
staff (annex 11 )
Area Climate related
stress
Climate change
trend/trajectory
Other factors contributing to
vulnerability
Priority areas for
Interventions
(Gov or NGO) Country-
wide
A sub-Sahara
country which is
highly
vulnerable to
climate
variability and
change
Climate change is
expected to have a
negative impact on major
economic sectors and
systems – exacerbating
the vulnerability of the
whole country and calls
for immediate actions to
improve adaptation
Chronic war over the last century
High dependency on agricultural
sector with unstable performance.
Wide-spread poverty(more than
50%of the population have income
below the poverty thresholdofUS$1.8
per day (WFP, 2006)
Large outstanding debt and limited
access to concessional financing
(IMF estimated the debt at $27
billion)
National development
programmes
Awareness on climate
change impacts
Integration of Climate
change into key
national programmes
such as roads, health
(units, vaccination
etc..)
Southern
Sudan
Climate
variability-
shifts between
droughts and
floods
Although no climate
projection has been
developed for S. Sudan
but the projection for Sub-
Sahara Africa indicates a
likely increased frequency
of extreme climatic
events ( drought and
floods) (IPCC, 2007)
which will largely
hamper the on-going
development programs ,
causing additional
suffering to the people,
more displacement
,famines and the need for
more relief .
Long term war and lack of security
Weak institutional structures e.g. no
evidence of local level or Civil
society organizations risks of further
conflict from pressures.
Returnee influx in the context of the
peace agreement
Lack of infrastructure- particularly
transport
High transaction costs for trade from
surplus to deficit areas
Localized crop failures in Northern
Bahr-el Ghazal and Eastern
Equatorial
Potentially increased Lord Resistance
Army (LRA) activities
Basic services
health, education,
provision of water
supply esp. in newly
populated villages.
Support the return
(livelihoods) of the
IDPs to their original
villages
Agric. And veterinary
services
Darfur
Drying trend
over decades,
localized
droughts and
flooding
The declining rainfall
trend is projected to
continue in the Western
parts of Sudan (Darfur
and Kordofan) with
increasing variability.
Hence, further
deterioration of people's
livelihoods, impairing
peace efforts and have a
-ve impact on the long
term development plans
by government and
international community.
Chronic conflicts over natural
resources
Scarce sources of water resources
Declining human health
Heavy pressure on degraded
landscapes including pasture, land,
water, fuelwood
Risks of vector borne disease –
malaria /
Further escalation in the conflict
Decline in funds for humanitarian
assistance
Risk of cross-boarder conflicts
Lower cereal harvest
Further curtailment of access
/mobility
Potential increase in camp based
population
Humanitarian
operations camp
management and food
aid
Provision of basic
services (water, health
and education)
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
18
Eastern
States
(Kassala
and Red
Sea
States)
Erratic rainfall
Frequent drying
Increased dust
storms
(Hababay)
Frequent floods
from El Gash
River in Kassala
Current climate variability
is expected to continue in
the future – this coincide
with the IPCC findings
which indicates the
increasing probability of
extreme climatic
conditions in terms of
frequency, intensity and
duration (IPCC, 2007).
The heavy rainfall in the
Ethiopian highlands and
Gash floods during this
year is a live picture of
the vulnerability of this
region to climatic
changes.
Chronic food insecurity due to
serious structural failure- Red Sea
State
Limited livelihood options for IDPs
and weak service infrastructure –
chronic poverty – spread of TB
diseases particularly among children
Politically charged and volatile
conditions in Hoomesh Koreib-
Potential refugee influx due to
tensions between Eritrea and
Ethiopia (currently Kassala state host
75000 Eritrean refugees and the Red
Sea host 95000 IDPs.
Decline in urban labour employment
opportunities due to mechanization
in Port Sudan
- Higher consumer prices due to
inflammatory effect and unstable
market
difficulties in procurement and
logistics of supply Increased food
insecurity (seasonality),
improved access to
water , food aid and
improved security
Rehabilitation of
villages, improved
access to health and
education services and
restoration of
livelihoods.
Agricultural inputs
and general
development
programming
North
Kordofan
Arid land erratic
distribution of
rain
Repeated
localized
droughts,
Pest and crop
diseases
The results of the climate
and socio-economic
scenarios, indicated that
the Kordofan region’s is
going to experience more
climate variability e.g.
erratic rainfall, frequent
droughts and dust storms
( see Annex 15
summary of the NC and
annex 18)- This would
have severe implication
on important sectors such
as the water, agriculture
and pastures.
Heavy dependence on rainfall
(agric.& pasture)
IDPs from Bahr Alghazal State
Decreased numbers of livestock due
to distress sales and animal diseases
Depleting household assets, loss of
traditional income sources. Increased
poverty
Security problem in the south west
(neighboring Darfur
High % of out migration and women
headed households
Food aid (WFP)
Water and sanitation
Human health service
(esp. child and
maternity health)
Basic education
services
Veterinary services
Agricultural and
pasture extension
Regular monitoring of
the food security
situation
Southern
Kordofan
Climate
variability –
localized
recurrent
drought
Same as above
Conflict zone- Nuba mountain for
more than two decades
High percent of women-headed
households
High percent of IDPs
Reduction of livestock from raiding
Food aid
Health services and
water sanitation
Education facilities
Water points along the
migratory routes of
livestock
Restocking of
livestock
Veterinary services
Abyei Occasional
dryness
Bird attacks for
sorghum fields
Insect
infestation on
water melon
fields
Current climate variability
is expected to continue in
the future – increasing
probability of extreme
climatic conditions in
terms of frequency,
intensity and duration
(IPCC, 2007).
Conflict over land and pasture
between the Messeria and Dinka
tribes
Returnee influx in the context of the
peace agreement
Potential conflict associated with
delimitation of boarders and right
issues- nomadic and sedentary
Provision of agric.
Inputs
Provision of water in
newly populated areas
Basic education and
health services
Veterinary services
Blue Nile Localized heavy Increasing variability is Host 165,000 IDPs and refugees Health services and
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
19
rains expected over the region
of East Africa – including
Ethiopian highlands- this
will lead to increasing
number of IDP and
refugees.
Livestock theft/looting
Spread of epidemics e.g. lechmania
and hepatitis
vaccination
Education
Water sanitation
Agricultural extension
and veterinary services
Khartoum Arid land
Erratic rainfall
Seasonal floods
Increasing climate
variability in different
parts of Sudan would
negatively impact
Khartoum leading to more
disasters (floods,
contamination, health
problems, etc.. and more
influxes of IDPs.
Encroachment of urban settlement
over flood-prone areas and
agricultural land along the Nile
Expansion of shanty towns and
settlements
Increasing number of refugees and
IDPs
Planning of IDPs
settlements and the
provision of :
Health services and
vaccination
Education
Water sanitation
Northern
States(El
Neil and
Northern
States)
Repeated
localized floods
Frequent sand
storms and sand
encroachment
over fertile soil
The projected increase in
temperature and the irratic
pattern of Nile water
levels would negatively
impact the crop
production (wheat, beans
and dates)-The expected
variation of the Nile flow
could also increase the
frequency of floods over
the villages and islands.
food insecurity
Out migration due to limited
livelihood options
Lack of basic health service
lack of landuse plan
Erosion of the Nile Bank (hadam)
Rehabilitation of
villages, improved
access to health and
education services and
restoration of
livelihoods.
Agricultural inputs
and general
development
programming
- Flood control
2.2 Projected climate change
Future changes in Sudan's climate variables (rainfall and temperature) still need to be modelled,
as very few related assessments have been conducted so far. According to Hulme, 1989) results
obtained from a range of future climate scenarios revealed that only one of a total of ten
developed scenarios indicated a regenerated rainfall, the other nine scenarios are heavily
weighted towards either maintenance of the current declining trends in rainfall or else a further
decline, (see annex 2 for the sensitivity to rainfall). He concluded by disclosing that "in view of
this output and until our understanding of current drought mechanisms and modelling of the
effects of global warming improves, it would seem prudent for Sudan to assume a continuation of
the current depleted rainfall resource into the twenty-first century "(Mike Hulme, 1989).
Undertaking impact assessments (in relation to agriculture, water and malaria) is contingent on
available climate- scale scenarios at time and space scales of relevance to the regional levels.
The Global Climate Models (GCMs) is considered as the principal tools for deriving climate
change scenarios. Sudan employed the scenario approach in the V&A assessment conducted
under the 1st. National Communication (HCENR, 2003). The assessment covered Kordofan
region in the western part of Sudan. This region being part of Africa Sahel could be considered
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
20
as representative to most of the arid areas of Sudan (more than 70%). It is characterized by
highly arid climate which is already vulnerable to natural variability and extreme climate e.g.
erratic rainfall and frequent dust storms. The vulnerability of the region is illustrated mainly by
using climate scenario analyses. Two climate change projections were considered under the
impact assessment; one with the expected climate change likely to take place by the year 2030
and the other which is likely to occur by the year 2060. This approach serves to provide an initial
overview of the potential climate change in the region. The results extracted from climate
scenarios indicated that average temperatures are expected to rise significantly relative to
baseline expectations. By 2060, projected warming ranges from 1.5°C to 3.1°C, during August
to 1.1°C to 2.1°C during the month of January. Projections of rainfall under future climate
change conditions also shows sharp deviations from baseline expectations. Results from some of
the models show average rainfall decreases of about 6 mm/month during the rainy season.
Using FAO Impact Model, the simulation tested several GCM scenarios. The results revealed
that, drought would become more pronounced with a number of impacts on livelihood systems
projected. (See the table below for a summary of projected climate change scenarios). However,
it is evident that for climate change issues, there is still much uncertainty implicit in the choice
of GCM and greenhouse gas forcing scenarios; an uncertainty further compounded by the
additional complications introduced by downscaling. It is important to address this issue of
uncertainty through the use of regional circulation models and to develop national capacities in
relation to generation and use of climate models. There is also a need to develop climate change
scenarios for the different regions of Sudan, and to making climate projections readily available
to those who have need of them for planning purposes.
Projected climate change as derived from different scenario
Climate parameter Future climate change
for the 2030s
Future climate scenarios
for the 2060
Certainty level
Increasing
temperatures
0.8 To 1.4 in Elobied
using GDFL and
HADCM2 resp.
1.1 to 3.0 in Elobied using
GDFL and HADCM2 resp.
High confidence, good
agreement between
climate models.
Change in
precipitation
Seasonal differences: e.g
ElObied 12 ml increase
during August to 6 ml
decrease in Sept. (GDFL) 5
-
- Seasonal differences: e.g
in ElObied 20 ml increase
during August to 7 ml
decrease in July and 10 ml
decrease in Sept. (GDFL)
Medium confidence,
medium agreement bet.
Climate models t
5 See the figure below
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
21
Extreme events
Increasing Drought
More erratic rainfall and
drought conditions
Fluctuations in
rainfall
Medium confidence
Projected average monthly precipitation difference at El Obeid in 2030 from selected GCMs
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
HADCM2-IS92A
GFDL-IS92A
BMRC-IS92A
ΔP
(mm
/mon
th)
Based on the above scenarios of projected climatic changes, a range of associated risks
are expected to affect the livelihoods of people in Sudan. These include both direct and
indirect ones resulting from the rising temperature, the expected decrease in rainfall and
related problems. The combination of increasing water scarcity and rising temperatures
will affect sectors of the economy that are particularly dependent on ecosystem goods
and services, for example agriculture, forestry and livestock, lowering people’s
vulnerability6. The livelihoods of poor communities living in fragile environment are
likely to be most affected by changes in the frequency of extreme climate events
particularly floods, droughts and high temperatures. Important services such as electricity
(hydro-power generation) will also be affected to some degree by erratic rainfall and
drought. The duration of each drought event plays the most important role in
characterizing its hazard level, due to the fact that droughts develop slowly and may last
over a period of many years. Moreover, drought could have very severe secondary
impacts including, famine and health-related problems, conflicts and mass migration. A
number of impact studies conducted in Sudan indicated that livelihoods of different
stakeholder groups would be impacted at varying degrees by climate variability and
6 Vulnerability is defined as the people's exposure to hazard and their susceptibility to its impacts which results from climate
variability and change. It is therefore, a function of the impacts' magnitude and capacity to anticipate, cope with, and recover
from hazard. (IPCC 2001a)..
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
22
change (see table 2). UNDP, (2004). Figure (1) below shows the relative vulnerability to
drought 1990-2000- with Sudan and Ethiopia being among the most vulnerable countries
to its impacts.
Figure (1) the relative vulnerability to drought 1990-2000
Source: UNEP-GRID/Geneva
Furthermore, the studies emphasized the need for assessing the various impacts on
livelihoods as well as identifying options to decrease vulnerability to climate change in a
holistic and integrated manner (HCENR, 2003, AIACC-AF14, 2006).
Examining Sudan's vulnerability within the context of the Africa Sahel, it is also evident
that the projected high variation of rainfall coupled with warming and the absence of
irrigation would have a negative implications on water supplies and demands and impacts
on the irrigated and rainfed agriculture. The implications expected under such regional
and national climate scenarios include; further exposure of the whole region to high risks
of food insecurity and a prevalence of human diseases (NC, 2003, Barton D. and Morton
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
23
J., 2003, IPCC, 2007). These issues have been highlighted as key vulnerability concerns
in many V&A studies in Africa (UNFCCC, 2006, IPCC, 2007). They also concur with
the results obtained from the Sudan's vulnerability and adaptation study under the
1st.National communication (see annex15 and annex 18 on technical gaps in the First
National Communication) (HCENE, 2003), and are further supported by the Sudan's
National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) study (NAPA, 2007). These studies have
shed light on the link between climate and livelihoods in Sudan and have identified water
resources, food security and human health as major climate change-related issues for the
country. They highlighted the urgent need to develop measures that address sector-
specific problems by the government, international and regional organizations. In this
respect it is important to note that, addressing the specific needs of the most vulnerable
groups was one of the main objectives of the NAPA. Considering the limited ability of
the identified vulnerable groups to cope with the expected adverse effects of climatic
changes, they have special need for urgent assistance and a targeted support that would
enable them maintains their livelihoods.
3) Physical and Socio Economic Impacts & implications
3.1 Agriculture and food security
The Agricultural sector including forestry and livestock sectors are largely influenced by
climatic variability and change. Analyses of agricultural vulnerability indicate that the
key attributes of climate change are those related to climatic variability, including the
frequency of non-normal conditions (Smit et al. 2000). It also indicate that the
productivity of agriculture is dependent upon temperatures, the length of the growing
season, available soil moisture and climate extremes such as droughts, dust storms and
floods. Livestock are particularly sensitive to water availability, temperature, and access
to pasture. The observed climatic change in Eastern Africa including Sudan (increased
temperature and decrease precipitation) e.g. from 1996-2003 has been accompanied by a
decline in the long-cycle crops (e.g., slowly maturing varieties of sorghum and maize)
across most of eastern Africa, thereby impacting the available food supply (Funk et al.,
2005). Temperature increases have also stressed livestock, leading to reductions in milk
production and affecting their health.
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
24
Due to Sudan's inherently climate sensitive agricultural systems, climate variability
and change have always affected its agricultural production. Under future climate
change and consequently increasing variability, further declining of agricultural
productivity would be expected. This has been illustrated by the climate change
models for Kordofan State in Western Sudan which showed an unfavourable
precipitation scenario (large reductions in precipitation and an increase in temperature
(see annex15 in summary of NC, 2003 and annex 18 on technical gaps in the First
National Communication). In general terms, this would severely impact the rainfed
agriculture- upon which 70% of the population depends-. The study indicated a
southward shift in moist agro climatic zones, indicating a shrinking area of crop
production coupled with a decline in food crop yield of up to 82% for sorghum and
up to 76% for millet. This would reflect negatively on in the availability of food,
leading more people to suffer from food insecurity. The increase in temperature and
decrease in rainfall will also lower the quality of traditional rangelands, resulting in
reduced productivity of pastures for grazing livestock. In addition, large areas of
forest land would suffer from the impact brought about by the interaction between
temperature and water shortages. It is evident that some biological effects of climate
change are already apparent in Sudan, notable is the southward shifts of the Gum
arabic belt (extending between 10-14o across Sudan), indicating a prevalence of a
dryer condition northward (HCENR, 2003).
In a recent FAO Food Prospect Report, (2007) Sudan was put under the list of
countries in crisis, requiring external assistance i.e. countries that are expected to lack
the basic resources to deal with reported critical problems of food insecurity. In this
list the food crises are nearly always attributed to a combination of factors. Moreover,
crisis here was characterized as severe localized food insecurity. This is mainly due to
the influx of refugees, a concentration of internally displaced persons (see annex 10),
as well as areas with combinations of crop failure and deep poverty. (Table 2 shows
the number of people in need of food aid in 2007).
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
25
Table (2) Planned number of people to receive food aid in Eastern Africa
(As of March 2007)
Country Number of people
Ethiopia 8.6 million of which 7.3 million chronic food insecure people
Sudan 4.6 million (mainly Darfur and Southern Sudan)
Somalia 1.125 million (expected to increase with new displacements)
Kenya 3.1 million (including 280,000 Somali and Sudanese refugees)
Uganda 2.3 million (including IDPs, refugees and vulnerable people)
Djibouti 70,000
Adapted from WWF, 2006
In Eastern region of Sudan, pastoralist groups - (mainly Beja) - have traditionally been
practicing mobile pastoralism as a response measure to the region’s low and erratic
rainfall, the low biological productivity of the soil and cyclical droughts. Over the years
these groups have developed flexible responses to address the complexity and the
fragility of their environment in ways that are respectful to the natural resource base.
However, the increasing frequency and intensity of drought intensified by a set of
external forces has progressively undermined the capacity of these groups to survive in
this difficult environment (Morton, 1993). The increased inability of pastoralists,
particularly the Beja, to cope with and recover from climatic crises was one of the main
reasons that the drought that hit the region in the mid-1980s degenerated into a famine of
disastrous proportions. Added to that the lack of adequate policies and of investment in
services and infrastructure in those areas which have also hampered people's capacities to
manage livelihoods in the prevailing challenging environmental conditions.
Drawing on material from recent collection of papers on food security, nutrition, and
livelihoods in Sudan. In the special issue of Disasters Journal, edited by faculty at the
Feinstein International Center with the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy
at Tufts University. It was indicated that despite more than 20 years relief and emergency
food in this region of eastern Sudan, still the region faces a very high malnutrition rates
(the highest in the country) indicating a lack of real improvement in the chronic
livelihoods vulnerability that affects people in the region—particularly pastoralists (P.
Sara, 2006). It has then become increasingly apparent that the provision of free food aid
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
26
is not an adequate strategy to address the needs either of the refugees, or of the other
vulnerable communities in eastern Sudan. (Abdelatti, 2003). (See section 4.2 on relief
versus development). This persuaded many of the agencies that had participated in the
relief operation to become increasingly involved in development activities. In most areas
the shift from relief to development interventions was preceded neither by rehabilitative
measures aimed at reconstituting productive assets (e.g. livestock), nor by an in-depth
analysis of the changes undergone by the Beja livelihoods system and an assessment of
which coping or adaptive strategies might more effectively be reinforced.
The increasing climate variability and change, and the consequent impact on the overall
agricultural productivity and food security situation could be the spark that triggers a
state of violence (Tearfund, 2007). Such a situation underlines the fact that the current
crisis in Darfur is not only a political conflict but also a fight for increasingly scarce
resources, including water and grazing lands. (Annex 8 on humanitarian activities in
2004). It is also obvious that the on-going conflict is additionally impacting the food
supply, as insecurity remains a major factor in inhibiting access to food to conflict areas
in Darfur regions. According to a report by WFP, 2006, currently, the most food insecure
areas are those areas which were most affected by the war and where many impoverished
displaced are now returning. (See annex 10 on refugees and IDPs).
South Sudan is one of the most vulnerable areas regarding food security. Despite an
apparently strong asset-base, pastoralist and agropastoralist communities in southern
Sudan are among the most food insecure groups. Their vulnerability relates primarily to a
long history of conflict (over nearly 200 years), resulting in a gradual erosion of
traditional safety nets and social networks. Superimposed on the persistent conflict were
repeated shocks such as droughts, crop pests and animal disease epidemics, and seasonal
variations in food availability. The literature on pastoralism, drought and famine in the
South doesn't only highlights the linkages between animals, rain and human hunger but
also the disproportionate impact of drought on children. Catley A, et al, 2005, noted the
fact that pastoralist children are particularly susceptible to interruptions in milk supply
because they consume relatively more milk than adults.
3.2 Human health
According to the (IPCC 2001a, IPCC, 2007), more extreme weather events, more floods,
and more resulting property and ecosystem damage are expected world-wide. Increasing
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
27
number of people are facing climate-related health problems with severe implications.
More than a million people a year die from malaria, the majority being in Africa, in
addition, 2 million annual deaths result from diarrhea, almost all in Africa and Asia
(WHO 2004).
The Climate Information for Development Report (GCOS, 2006), noted the high
attention given by African scientists to the impacts of climate on nutritional status,
economic performance, and diseases such as meningitis and malaria. It has also indicated
that unusual rainfall patterns were associated with malaria epidemics among the
vulnerable populations of the Sahel and that meningitis outbreak also had a relationship
to climate. It is observed that in sub-Saharan Africa, malaria epidemics arise suddenly in
mostly remote, disadvantaged settings without effective early warning systems. These
findings underline the importance of application of climate information to provide early
warning for malaria, cholera, bilharzias and meningitis epidemics. Other health-related
vulnerability includes the impact of severe drought on water quantity and quality
(diarrhea and cholera), subsequent food security problems and the resultant poor
nutritional status of the population.
The V&A study conducted in Kordofan on the potential impact of climate change on
human health focused on malaria as the most widely-spread disease in Sudan. The
assessment- concluded that the potential changes in temperature and precipitation
anticipated under climate change would lead to increase in transmission potential,
suggesting a change in the current distribution and intensity of malaria incidence in
Kordofan as well as in many areas of Sudan e.g. Darfur (for more information see annex
15) . This link was further examined by Checchi F. et al, 2006, who reported that the
combination of increased rainfall and higher temperature in desert-fringe areas would
signal the beginning of an outbreak of malaria, while excessive rainfall beyond the
historical seasonal average would signal the likelihood of an outbreak in arid and semi-
arid areas of Greater Darfur (the three states of Darfur -North, South and West Darfur).
To address the increasing incidence of malaria in Darfur, a malaria preparedness and
response plan was prepared by the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) of
Sudan, in collaboration with the State Ministry of Health (SMoH) of the three Darfur
states. The World Health Organization (WHO) is to provide technical oversight, advice
and data management support for the operationalization of the plan in Greater Darfur (El
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
28
Sakka H., 2005) (figure 2 below shows the major components of the malaria
preparedness and response plan)
Fig (2) the major components of the malaria preparedness and response plan,
(El Sakka H, 2005)
3.3 Water Resources and Nile Ecosystem
Past and current challenges to water resources in Sudan have demonstrated the great
influence of climate variability and change. A particular challenge for water resources
management are extreme events, such as prolonged droughts which reduce water
availability, or periodic extreme rainfall events, which result in extensive run-off and
increase the risk of flooding.
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
29
Rainfall projections for Western Sudan (Kordofan), generally indicate a decrease in the
rainy season. The water deficit in Kordofan is predicted to worsen as a result of climate
change in milestone years 2030 and 2060, as compared to the historical baseline (1961-
1990). Interestingly, the decline in rainfall is only part of the story; the effect of rising
temperatures and increased Potential EvapoTranspiration (PET) may have the most
significant impact on people's livelihoods. However, change for the other regions of
Sudan is still uncertain due to lack of studies, but it is evident that climate change (e.g.
rising temperature) would increase water demand while supply would decrease,
highlighting the need to manage water in such a way to increase supply or reduce
demand.
Climate change is also expected to influence water demand for irrigation and other uses.
Some experts believe that serious threat exist regarding its impact over the next twenty to
forty years expecting a reduction of Nile water flows by as much as twenty five percent.
However, if the negative projections prove accurate, the basin is likely to experience
profound environmental change with serious security implications. This is expected to
have serious implications on irrigated agriculture such as the Gezira irrigation scheme
(one of the largest in Africa) in central Sudan, and the Nile Riverine agriculture in the
Northern state (confined to a narrow strip of gerf 7 land on either side of the River Nile of
the desert). Although the potential irrigable area in Sudan is estimated at 2.8 million
hectare but only two third of it is currently utilized. In 2005 only one third was actually
cultivated, due to a suite of factors e.g. poor irrigation and drainage infrastructure,
accumulation of sediments into the canals and salinization problems. Climate change
would exacerbate these pressures adding significant implications to this important sector.
Few other studies have recently attempted to evaluate the impacts of climate change on
runoff in the Nile Basin. Conway, 2005, stated with a high confidence that temperature
will rise but according to Hume et al, 2001 and 2003, there are disparities between
models on rainfall predictions over both the Blue Nile and White Nile. The various
mathematical, hydrological and theoretical models and assumptions have produced
inconsistent results ranging from a fifty percent reduction in runoff in the Blue Nile Sub-
basin due to a twenty percent decrease in precipitation, to an increase in water runoff up
to the year 2025. This differing assumptions have lead some experts to argue that what is
7 Fertile soil along the bank of the river
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
30
lacking is not just the data and forecasts, but also the capacity in each basin state to
analyze the available information and come out with solid conclusions (Yacob, 2005).
Nevertheless, temperature rise will lead to greater loss through evaporation placing
additional stress on water resources regardless of changes in rainfall. Nine climate
scenarios showed decreases in Nile flows from zero to approximately 40 percent by 2025
(Strzepek et al, 2001). Such scenario of reduction in the water resources, coupled with
economic development and increases in population, may trigger conflict between the
different countries sharing the basin. Shiva (2002) describes a number of cases where
competition over water resources and the displacement of populations as a result of dam
building have led to conflict within nations.
Where climate change places additional stress on water resources and encourages the
building of dams to address increased water stress, such conflicts will be more likely to
occur. Example of a related potential conflict is the planned heightening of the Khor
Arba’at Dam in Eastern Sudan for the purpose of diverting more water for urban use in
the capital city of Port Sudan to alleviate severe water shortage during summer time. The
project is expected to reduce the volume of water spillover that supplies the Arbaat
community. Potential adverse effects of reduced water supply to Arbaat include reduced
cultivated area, displacement of families, spread and invasion of aggressive mesquite
trees into fertile agricultural land, and reduced production of food for subsistence and
marketing, i.e. inducing maladaptation.. Members of the Arbaat community are
petitioning the government through traditional and religious leaders. (Abdelatti, 2003,
Osman, 2006).
On the other hand, some may argue that enhanced pressure on water resources may
encourage the development of international cooperative mechanisms to manage shared
water resources. An example is the Nile Basin Initiative, which is a multi-donor
supported initiative led by GEF/WB. The initiative regards the regional coordination and
cooperation as a basis for improved water resource management under the principle of
benefit sharing. The essence of such an integrated regional management approach for
shared ecosystems is gaining more national, regional and international attention with the
consideration of the additional potential pressures arising from climate change.
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
31
3.4 Implication for conflicts and migration trends
Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change. A
range of assessments have shown that many of African countries and communities are
sensitive and vulnerable to extreme climate events, particularly drought which have
continuously contributed to migration in Africa with one third of its people living in
drought-prone areas (IPCC, 2007).
Drought and conflict are often inextricably linked. These combined effects have been
widely felt in many countries of the world, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where
they pose the main threat to long-term food security and economic progress. Climate
change is likely to lead to food deficits in these regions due to recurrent drought and
crop failure. Scarce water and food had always triggered conflicts and civil wars which
is one of the main reasons for mass migration and displacement. Migration is expected
to intensify in the different regions of Africa with projected increases in the number of
environmental refugees – those who are exposed to climatic shocks, in addition to war
refugees. The recent IPCC report highlighted the impacts of internal and across –boarder
migration as a response measure to climate –induced stresses, and its severe resultant
impacts e.g. escalating conflicts, more pressures on natural resources and loss of
biodiversity (IPCC, 2007). According to FAO, 2005, repeated food emergencies are
concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, where the majority of the affected countries (61
percent) are hosts to civil wars (see figure 4). A situation that reflects the limitation and
inadequacy of the recovery and rehabilitation efforts for addressing the problem of
chronic food insecurity and vulnerability to drought. Since livelihoods in this region
depends mainly on the presence of natural pastures and rain water, then it is more likely
that nomadic pastoralists will be heavily impacted, to the extent that they may be forced
to undertake large scale movements and trans-boundary migrations which will
eventually lead into conflict with settled communities, Magadza (2000).
Sudan had hosted refugees for the last three decades .from neighboring countries.
Eastern Sudan used to be the main reception and camp centre for Eritrea and Ethiopian
refugees. Sudan also provided asylum to a significant number of refugees from other
countries in recent years, primarily from Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC), Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Uganda. Estimates for 2005 indicate that
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
32
approximately 147,000 refugees were officially recognized in Sudan. The International
Displacement Monitoring Centre estimates that two million IDPs now live in
Khartoum, accounts for an approximately 40 percent of Khartoum’s total population.
The drought and land degradation followed by conflicts are considered the main factors
leading to both migration and displacements. Consequently, this situation is expected to
worsen under climate change with more movement across the country and between
boundaries. The large influxes of refugees from neighbouring countries to Sudan could
have a number of implications including the environmental impacts through
indiscriminate clearing of trees for domestic energy and housing. While the increasing
numbers of IDPs could lead to the expansion of urban slums and exert continued
pressure on the provision of basic services such as safe water, education and health
services, as well as threaten food security and increase the urban poverty. It is therefore,
important that the organization and donor communities take the expected climate
change impacts into consideration when drafting their country relief and development
programs. Moreover, it should be considered a pre-requisite for the responsible
government institutions to mainstream climate –related concerns and implications into
all the national plans and strategies.
Fig (4) frequency and primary causes of food emergency: Source (FAO, 2007)
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
33
Environmental resources are crucial to livelihoods and cultural identity of Darfur people,
who used to maintain food self-sufficiency, except in unusually bad drought years. But,
the current crisis of development’ combined with a history of ecological hardships, and
severe famine episodes have excreted a massive pressure on the people and devastated
their coping capacities Under such condition of high vulnerability, it becomes evident
that any climate variability, in the form of erratic rainfall, short term or long term
drought, could lead to a state of production failure leading to hunger and consequently
conflicts between different land users (e.g. farmers and livestock herders). With the
presence of free arms- evidenced in Darfur- this situation ended up in an armed violence
and civil wars. (Fig 5 shows rain fall variability in ElFashir – North Darfur). Jeffrey
Sachs8 makes a clear connection between climate-induced drought and conflicts. He
noted that climate change will increasingly pose security threats across the world, as it
causes or exacerbates huge ecological challenges, among them, the looming worldwide
water crisis. Taking Darfur as an example, he indicated that since the 1980s drought,
Darfur suffered from extreme poverty, which is the undoubted origin of the present
conflict in the region. Moreover, he urged the worlds’ governments to focus their
resources to such underlying challenges, and suggests that all governments establish
ministries of sustainable development (Sachs, 2006).
.A recent study aiming at developing a National Plan for Environmental Management in
Post Conflict Sudan (HCENR/UNEP, 2007), reported that the connections between
conflict and the environment in Sudan are both multifaceted and persistent and that
historically, a small scale conflicts have mostly been triggered by resource- related
rivals, which sometimes escalates into major conflicts. Causes for these conflicts include
disputes over water and fodder, cattle theft, access to land, and grazing fields. Many of
the conflicts were in part over the use of common and shared natural resources; these
same resources are then further undermined by the conflict. The report emphasized the
need for understanding the underling causes of historical and current conflicts in Sudan
as an essential step towards addressing the chronic environmental problems as well as
the resulting conflicts (HCENR/UNEP, 2007)..
8 Jeffrey Sachs is professor of Economics and director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University.
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
34
Fig 6 below shows a comparison of the number of local conflicts attributed to
competition over land and grazing to that attributed to other administrative or political
causes.
Fig (5) shows a variation in rainfall with a declining trend during the same period of Fig
(6).
Source: Badi, 2005)
Fig (6) causes of local conflicts in Darfur 1930-2000 Source: (HCENR/UNEP, 2007)
Causes of local conflicts in Darfur 1930-
2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Grazing, water and land Adminstration and politics
Causes of conflicts
Rainfall in ElFashir 1930-2000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1930-1939 1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000
Years
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
35
4) Adaptation Assessment Reliant upon ecosystems that are, in many cases, fragile or degraded, the population of
Sudan can ill afford the added challenge of increased ecological stress that climate
change could bring. This makes adaptation essentially a priority area for Sudan.
A vulnerability and adaptation assessment that have been conducted under the Sudan's
1st. National Communication provided a primary indication of the potential impacts of
climate change on important sectors (water, agriculture and health). Some response
measures have been identified as possible strategies for addressing climate change
impacts (decreasing precipitation and rising temperature). They include:
crop diversification and the use of drought-resistant varieties;
rain water harvesting, conservation and management;
public awareness;
Government allocation of water use revenues for water infrastructure
development, rehabilitation and equipment maintenance;
Improved water utility and reduction of loss through introduction of water
conserving technologies in delivery systems and related research programs.
water pricing and tariffs, incentives for high efficiency and penalties for wasted
water;
Two other adaptation projects were undertaken to assess adaptation
o AIACC-AF14 (for more details of the project see annex 6).
o The National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) (for more details see
Annex 16 )
Both presented an opportunity for Sudan to undertake a bottom-up assessment of
adaptation and produce a set of highly prioritized coping strategies that could be developed
further into adaptation projects suitable for addressing the real needs of the Sudanese
people
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
36
4.1 Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AICC-AF14) Project
This project is motivated by the observation that adaptation cannot be effectively
undertaken separate from poverty alleviation and sustainable development activities in
general, just as poverty alleviation efforts will be short-lived if undertaken without
consideration of climate change and improved coping needs. It aims at addressing the
knowledge gap and the limited information that exists for adaptation decision making
at all the levels. It focuses in Sudan, where drought is a current threat and will
continue to be in the foreseeable future – potentially worsening under climate change.
Under this scenario, activities to improve community and household capacity to cope
with drought are of particular importance. Certain environmental management
strategies (sustainable development activities) in Sudan – whether approached from a
poverty alleviation or natural resource management perspective – have been quite
effective in this regard. The project explored three examples of such experiences,
documenting both, the lessons they had to offer and, equally important, a methodology
to extracting those lessons and to improve our understanding on how to support
community coping capacity.
The project explored the post 80s drought period in Sudan which have witnessed a
number of interventions by international development agencies, aiming at reducing the
impacts of drought. While most of the efforts focused on the provision of short term relief
and emergency food, some attempts have been made to address the root causes of the
problem by providing long-term solutions through developmental options. Many of these
options involve the implementation of specific interventions by organizations such as the
UNDP/GEF, SOS Sahel, OXFAM etc., aiming at increasing the ecological sustainability
(water harvesting and conservation, rehabilitation of range lands, shelterbelt, employment
of a sustainable management system and the support and encouragement of the
application of strict regulations and sanctions over utilization of the meagre resources.
The assessment aimed to identify, explore and discuss such strategies in order to make
them accessible, readily understandable and useable to the policy-making process.
(Osman, 2006, Osman, 2007, AIACC-AF14, 2006).
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
37
The analysis of the conditions after the interventions revealed that some options (coping
strategies) proved successful in increasing the adaptive capacity of the local communities
in the face of climate variability. They have also improved their managing abilities for
their livelihood assets and had gained a number of positive and tangible outcomes
(Osman et al, 2006). Productivity and ecological management have evolved favorably
and to a great extent sustainable. Part of the interventions are meant to reduce subsistence
vulnerability through; diversification of income sources, increased savings and
purchasing power, better storage facility, and access to markets. Other important
strategies targeted the social capital through the formation of locally based organization
(community development committees), and had contributed to solving many past
problems associated with lack of skills, commitments, responsibilities and work division
which reflected the importance and role of empowerment. The exploration of the three
case studies revealed several broad themes, which echo basic principles of sustainable
livelihoods and sustainable rural development. AIACC-Af14, 2006.
5. Early warning and short-term forecasting
Climate prediction, early warning and information systems are key tools for mitigating
disaster impacts. Forecast and early prediction efforts in many African countries
including Sudan, has gone mainly into food security early warning systems, which
operate at national level in southern, eastern and Sahelian regions, and are supported by
respective regional intergovernmental organizations and the international systems of
FAO and USAID. These have become generally effective in providing timely
assessments of seasonal conditions for crops and pastures, generating national food
balance estimates, and more recently identifying outcomes for different livelihood
groups. Their main audiences are governments of affected countries, donors and
humanitarian agencies. (DFID, 2004). However, the arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL)
have rainfall patterns that are highly variable temporally and spatially, making the
prediction of pasture and water availability for livestock difficult and unreliable, (Matus
J., 2006). Residents of ASAL of east Africa are exposed to risks associated with the
pastoral production systems which comprise the main economic activities in these areas.
They have highly variable rainfall patterns both temporally and spatially making pasture
and water availability for livestock unpredictable. Some of these risks usually translate
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
38
into risks of food shortages and human crisis, because it interact with other risks
originating from multiple factors characterizing these areas such as; the relatively poor
infrastructure, communication and information dissemination problems, lack of basic
health and extension services. According to Luseno et al, 2003 poor people in these
regions rarely benefit from the rainfall forecasts produced by the regional centres because
they are often too coarse to be of much use.
Drought early warning systems are expected to help alert communities to potential
disaster in Sudan, where the loss of livelihood capitals particularly human and animal
lives is the most significant impacts of drought (Osman, 2007). DFID (2004) noted the
need for building these early warning systems on the traditional mechanisms, since
community-based actions can sometimes be more effective than other top-down
centralized approaches. Moreover, they can be directly integrated into local response and
risk reduction strategies and could also be coordinated with efforts made by disaster
management authorities such as the Civil Defense and other related agencies. Effective
communication also needs to be established with a focus on reaching a wide range of
stakeholders.
In the past 20 years considerable progress has been made in improving systems for
providing short-term forecasts on extreme weather events, flood surges and food crises
which allow timely action to be taken in the realm of disaster management. Yet there is
also a need for information systems to support longer-term risk assessment and
monitoring, i.e. a system that focus on long term vulnerability and hazards, as a basis for
disaster risk reduction initiatives within a development framework. Overall, it is
important to point out that the early warning and information systems in some of the
regional centres-often with substantial donor assistance-, have relatively been improved
in terms of both information reliability/timeliness and linkages to early response, saving
many lives in disasters. Many gaps related to the accessibility, content, language and
format of information, have been identified and highlighted by a number of stakeholders
in Sudan. (Hamadalla, 2007). (See fig.3 below showing the IRI probability rainfall
forecast for Africa for the period July -August, 2007).
Fig (3)
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39
Source: IRI, 2006
It worth mentioning that this forecast (fig 3) which indicates a high probability of above
normal rainfall over all the Sudan, showing a high degree of predictability skill and
turned out to be true for most of Sudan. The country is currently witnessing heavy rainfall
which exceeds the annual averages over many regions (Kordofan, White Nile, Khartoum,
Kassala and Red Sea States) associated with disastrous floods in almost all these areas.
However, inspite of the timely issuance of this forecast and related ones by the National
Met. Office but very little was done regarding:
o The dissemination of forecast information and early warning to targeted
stakeholders (particularly those who are going to be impacted most, e.g. people
who are living in low areas, along the valleys and near the river banks)).
o Protective measures to minimize the impacts e.g. evacuation of high risk areas
and temporary resettlement.
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
40
o Preparation of a strategic reserve of grains, tents, etc…
The result was a devastating situation and major livelihood a loss, making it evident that
forecast and early warning systems is in real need to be developed effectively in Sudan. The
economic impact also needs to be evaluated and assessed. Moreover, there is need to improve
the preparedness and ability to response in a more timely manner. Many constraints are
identified to have contributed to this, among which is the lack of awareness particularly
among policy makers as to the importance of early warning and preparedness to the
sustainability of people's livelihoods including disaster prevention and food security as well
as to the national development planning process. The national institutions e.g. Meteorological
Authority which is officially responsible for issuing out climatic forecasts, mostly lack
adequate technical capacity due to the quick turn over of the qualified staff to international
and regional centres. In addition to that they have financial constraints, as they are considered
by the Ministry of Finance as commodity and not service provider, so they are expected to
generate their own funds. This has resulted in Met. Office assigning high and sometimes
discouraging prices to the meteorological data and information. Moreover, the responsibility
of early warning is scattered among many different institutions including the Meteorological
Authority, the Civil Defense, the Disaster Reduction Department, Humanitarian Aid
Commission (HAC) and the Strategic Reserves Cooperation. (SRC). In addition to some
specialized units under the umbrella of different United Nations Organizations such as the
UNHCR, WHO, WFP and the other NGOs. The lack of coordination among all the partners
and institutions has negatively impacted information generation, utility, and dissemination.
Moreover, different types of early warning systems are being employed by different
organizations such as:: 1- early warning system (EWS) by WFP for food insecurity-prone
areas 2- FAO EWS for crop production, markets, food security, nutrition and
humanitarian condition. 3- EWS for epidemic-prone diseases by WHO which is
described by Augusto, 2005 as useful for detecting outbreaks and monitoring the number
of consultations required to trigger actions, but not for estimating mortality.
In addition to that, many regional early warning systems exist, examples are:
o IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC),-used to be the Drought
Monitoring Centre-Nairobi. It was initiated as a follow-up of a number of projects
through USAID/REDSO. Main objectives include: improving the technical capacity
of producers and users of climatic information, in order to enhance the input to and
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
41
use of climate monitoring and forecasting products; developing an improved,
proactive, timely, broad-based system of information and product dissemination and
feedback, at both sub-regional and national scales through national partners; and
expanding the knowledge base within the sub-region in order to facilitate informed
decision making, through a clearer understanding of climatic and climate-related
processes. The centre maintains collaboration with the Meteorological Authority in
Sudan and provides technical support to its staff. Moreover, it issues seasonal rainfall
forecast for the GHA which proved highly reliable, but had also been criticized of not
being informative enough and don't satisfy the specific information needs for a wider
group of stakeholders in the region.
o Desert Locust Component of the Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary
Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases (EMPRES), which aims at strengthening the
locust management capacity of locust-affected countries to minimize the risk that
desert locust plagues can develop. This is sought to be achieved through well-
directed surveys and timely, environmentally sound interventions in order to mitigate
food security concerns. Central regions for its work comprise countries around the
Red Sea. EMPRES provide various forms of support, to improve the survey and early
warning capacity of member countries. A locust information network has been setup
in Sudan. http://www.crc-empres.org
o Most of these centres receive financial and technical support from international
organizations such as USAID, NOAA, IRI, CIDA etc. and so they have a better
technical and financial capacity. Sudan has benefited to some extend from the
training opportunities provided by some of these centres as well as information on
forecast and early warning generated by them. Further on, there is still s good
room for better cooperation between Sudanese national institutions and these
centres. Common shortcomings, however, of some of the regional as well as
national forecast and early warning centres, are that while they establish the
means to generate or acquire large volumes of data, including remote sensing
data, their analysis and interpretation doesn't take into consideration demand side
and the specific informational needs of e.g. local stakeholders and impacted
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
42
communities. They are also weak in communicating their findings to these
stakeholders in a useful form that could lead to action
6. Short term relief versus long-term development
Emergency food assistance in Sudan has continued for the past several years, throughout
the conflict years, covering primarily conflict affected population and chronically food
insecure ones in eastern and Central Sudan. Other food aid programmes include the
Protracted Relief and Recovery (PRRO) for refugee operation in eastern Sudan. And the
World Food Program (WFP) Country Programme which mainly concentrated in the
chronically food-insecure and acute water-shortage areas in the north, namely Abyei area,
South Kordofan, North Kordofan, Red Sea and Kassala States – which are subject to
structural constraints and climatic variations that have eroded people's coping
mechanisms and weakened their overall asset base.
The issue of relief versus development has recently become one of the most controversial
issues. Many development practitioners started to question the effectiveness of the
traditional approach followed by relief organizations in their response to risks and
disasters. This is because donors' got used to the conventional approach which is
generally short-term and oriented mainly towards provision of humanitarian assistance.
Many appeals have now been made regarding the need for changing this approach to
adopt a more development focused approach. A study by Abdelatti, (2003) on the Arbaat
area in Red Sea State, indicated that for a long time the short term relief has been
employed as the main program to curb the negative impacts of the reoccurring drought
and famine conditions characterizing the area. He criticized this approach of being a short
term solution that rendered the state heavily dependent on central government support
and foreign aid organizations, making long term policies, including that of combating
drought, of a low priority.
This approach has also been described by the local community as being unsustainable,
undermined their traditional coping capacity and contributed to the creation of relief –
dependent groups (Abdelatti, 2003, Osman, 2006). They indicated that they would prefer
instead an approach that support their local capacities and help them maintain a local
food production system. A different view was expressed by Atkinson (2006), who argued
that it is not food aid that is creating dependency in eastern Sudan, but the failure of the
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
43
government, the donors and international agencies to promote a sustained and holistic
development process aimed at supporting livelihoods in the long term. Some
organizations and relief agencies attempted to introduce the food for work as a means for
getting people to be more appreciative and less dependent on relief. However, this
approach is also criticized by Harvey and Lind, 2005, who argued that food for work may
itself create dependency because it can distort local labour markets by attracting workers
away from vital activities during the agricultural year. Ethiopia presented a National
Policy on Disaster Prevention and Management with a new approach for tackling
recurrent food emergencies through linking relief resources with Development
interventions (DFID, 2004). In relation to this some of the WFP officials pointed out the
change in the approach of the WFP from a main focus on humanitarian to the
incorporation of rehabilitation and recovery, with the changing political environment-
including the peace agreement. Additionally, the officials stressed the need for food
assistance to be delivered in such a way that supports the resumption and restoration of
livelihoods. And that food aid should be part of a coordinated set of broad sectoral
interventions that address the root causes of food insecurity and other constraints
including health, nutrition and education issues. (see annex 13) for the comparative trend
analysis of WFP assistance 2005/2006. The officials mentioned few examples of the
current WFP interventions, such as:
o Support the provision of basic services (health and education) in the war affected
areas in Southern Sudan.
o Support the development of early warning through provision of training,
statistical models and computer hardware to the staff at the Meteorological
Authority.
Brian D’Silva and Olivia Tecosky (2006) examined the history of food production and
productivity in Sudan in their paper on sub-regional integration. They argued that the key
to national food security is the integration of markets in areas that are producing food
surpluses with other food deficient ones. This is also in line with the conclusion of the
AIACC-AF14 study which points out that having appropriate institutional and policy
framework in place, is key for improving the adaptation and the overall livelihoods of
local communities in disaster-prone areas of Sudan.
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
44
A recent study by Catley A, et al, 2005 suggest that both governments and donors tend to
fund disaster relief and rehabilitation assistance by reallocating resources from
development programmes. This can be expected to affect the poor disproportionately
through adverse effects on poverty reduction efforts. Catley A, et al, 2005 had also
pointed to the policy and structural divisions present between the relief and development
departments within DFID and other major donors and the incoherence within donors with
various levels of policy disconnects.
MDTF-South (MDTF-S) focuses on rebuilding the Southern states of Sudan and
providing capacity-building support to the newly-formed Government of South Sudan.
As of October 31st, 2006, ten projects have been approved for MDTF-S funding, with an
additional one approved pipeline including: umbrella program for health system, rural
water supply and sanitation services, agriculture and forestry: support services and
livestock & fisheries develop project, all of which could potentially be impacted by
climate change and warrant to be examined in this context.
WFP and the Government of Sudan have launched a five-year Country Programme for
the period 2002-2006 that covers two interlinked activities: activity 1 provides
educational and nutritional support to school children; and activity 2 supports food for
work activities in water harvesting and rehabilitation of educational infrastructure. While
this five year plan particularly the water harvesting activities could contribute to the
adaptive capacity building, but in general terms this plan didn't specifically consider
climate change or variability or attempt to mitigate its potential impacts.
The 2007 Work Plan of the United Nations and partners in Sudan (UN, 2007), integrates
two broad programming components:
o The delivery of humanitarian assistance to vulnerable conflict-affected
populations (including host communities) and the;
o Introduction of such programmes that will enable the timely transition towards a
more sustainable level of national recovery and development.
In addition to that The 2007 Plan has also identified a number of cross-cutting issues, which are
to be integrated into all of the sectoral programmes. They are:
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
45
� HIV/AIDS
� National Capacity Building
� Environmental Sustainability
� Gender Mainstreaming
However, climate change has not been considered among the cross-cutting issues that
need to be integrated into all the UN sectoral plans. (See annex 14), for Project Summary
by Sector and Assistance Category for National Programmes)
7) Conclusions
Despite all scientific progress in climate scenarios, still many uncertainties surround the
magnitude, pace and character of future climate change at both regional and national
scales. In addition, the limited amount of studies in terms of depth and coverage to Sudan
and the difficulty in drawing out solid conclusions from different climatic scenarios may
constrain the ability to formulate a well- founded policy recommendation, targeting
government and donor organization. However, all these limitations should not hinder the
scientists from communicating the climate change-related information, underlining the
need for immediate actions, based on the precautionary principle that; it would be much
safer and cost effective if planning decisions take into account climate change concerns
now- in the context of current uncertainty- than wait until it is too late.
Precipitation scenarios under future climate change over the Nile Basin still show a
degree of disagreement and inconsistent results regarding potential impact on Nile flow.
However, there is a general agreement that temperature rise will lead to greater loss
through evaporation placing additional stress on water resources regardless of changes in
rainfall.. Such scenario of reduction in the water resources, coupled with economic
development and increases in population, may trigger conflict between the different
countries sharing the basin. It is important that all the regional management plans of the
Nile ecosystem take into consideration this potential scenario to put necessary mitigation
mechanism and avoid future conflicts over water resources.
Climate change is also expected to influence water demand for irrigation and other uses.
A reduction of up to twenty five percent of the Nile water is expected under some. This is
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
46
expected to have serious implications on irrigated agriculture such as the Gezira irrigation
scheme in central Sudan, and the gerf agriculture in the Northern and Nile states. Taking
into consideration that the irrigated agriculture in Sudan is already facing a number of
problems including poor irrigation and drainage infrastructure, accumulation of sediments
into the canals and salinization of water. Climate change will just be an added stress that
could lead to a situation of high risk to this important sector.
The climate change assessments in Sudan suggest that, under even modest changes in
climate, the country faces significant threats in terms of food security, export crop
production (Gum Arabic), human health and water availability. This is expected to
aggravate the current climate variability and environmental stresses, further undermining
the coping capacity of climate sensitive sectors already suffering from this variability and
associated extremes. This situation demands immediate policy responses addressing
current variability problems, and in so doing also buffer against longer term adverse
climatic change i.e. provide for a win-win- 'no regret options.
Climate change is likely to lead to food deficits in many Sudan neighbouring countries
of east and central Africa, resulting particularly from recurrent drought and crop failure.
This would increase the number of environmental refugees' crossing the boarders and
hence, the need for humanitarian assistance. Moreover, scarce water and food had always
triggered conflicts and civil wars which is one of the main reasons for mass migration
and displacement. (war refugees) -The recent IPCC report highlighted the potential
impacts of internal and across –boarder migration as a response measure to climate –
induced stresses, and its severe social and environmental impacts (IPCC, 2007).
The preliminary findings of the climate-related assessment in Sudan provide a warning
signal to stakeholders and decision makers and give a cause for concern for Sudan’s
security in the face of changing climate. It highlighted the need to address vulnerability
problems with practical solutions and measures, work in close cooperation with relevant
organizations together with the local communities and NGOs to face these future risks;
Policy makers, organizations, and local stakeholders must be partners in the identification
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
47
and implementation of community-level adaptations as well as in the Sudan’s larger
response to climate change.
The vulnerability and adaptation assessment of Kordofan provided useful data sets on
historical trends as well as projected future climate change (2030 and 2060) which can
inform the long term planning process. Key sectors identified as sensitive to climate change
include water, agriculture and human health. The implications of the projected high variation
of rainfall coupled with warming and the absence of irrigation could exacerbate the exposure
of the whole country to high risks of food insecurity and a prevalence of human diseases.
The assessments have also highlighted the urgent need for adaptive measures in key
economic sectors, and beyond, indicating that the timely assessment of impacts can assist in
the planning and development of appropriate long-term mitigation and adaptation strategies
for the management of natural resources, (HCENR, 2003). This important assessment could
be duplicated in other areas of the country to get a more comprehensive picture on the
vulnerability situation in Sudan (vulnerability map).
Several existing socio-economic and natural resource strategies and plans provide an
indirect framework for adaptation to climate change but due to the complex nature of
climate change, responsive policies need to comprise a combination of various policy
areas. For example, specific policies to address adaptation to adverse impacts of climate
change on important sectors such as freshwater, agriculture and food, human health and
infrastructure. Moreover, to ensure the sustainability of these adaptation policies and
measures, options for addressing climate change impacts should be integrated with other
national and sectoral development policies and work programmes. This would not be an
easy task for Sudan where fragmented and sectoral approach for development is still
dominates, in spite the many calls for integration and mainstreaming. Results from the
few climate –related studies conducted so far have disclosed the urgent need for
including climate change adaptation into the development plans at different levels and
scales .(AIACC-AF14 –see annex 6 for detailed information on the project)
The findings by AIACC study could help influence Sudan’s key decision-makers toward
adopting practical means of adaptation to adverse climatic conditions – mainly drought-
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
48
and demonstrate the essence of integrating climate adaptation with broader development
policies e.g., through more sustainable rangeland management policies, or through
national water resource policies that actively support localized water management, etc.
Moreover, the lessons learned – can be taken up and applied in other areas of similar
setting within Sudan and Africa, as they have reflected the potential to help improve the
effectiveness of adaptation planning efforts as well as future development work.
One of gaps that have been identified in the V&A assessment under the 1st. National
Communication is that it has focused mainly on future impacts of climate change (2030
and 2060) and didn't cover the current vulnerability of Sudan to climate variability or
the analysis of priority areas for immediate intervention;. However, this have been
effectively dealt with in the AIACC-AF 14 project which focused more on historic
climate records and existing climate scenarios and the use of current climate as a proxy
for climate change. Another gap identified is the lack of clear plan or outreach strategy
for the final report – this resulted in a some-what low media coverage and lack of
interest among different stakeholders or target groups. This was reflected in the lack of
appreciation by the government for environmental issues creating a state of apathy
towards all environmental issues including urgent problems related to drought and
desertification, loss of biodiversity, expanding poverty and conflicts over resources.
Other issues highlighted among the gaps are the lack of adequate coordination and
linkage with other conventions (Biodiversity & desertification See Annex (5) the status
quo of the MEAs in the Sudan and annex 19 on List of climate change-related
initiatives in Sudan). This had consequently led to the inadequate integration of climate
change issues into national development strategies and plans and the insufficient policy
dialogue (see annex 16).
In the past 20 years considerable progress has been made in improving systems for
providing short-term forecasts on extreme weather events, which allow timely action to
be taken in the realm of disaster management. Yet there is still a need for information
systems to support longer-term risk assessment Different types of early warning
systems are being employed by different organizations at regional and sub-regional
levels. However, their contribution to improving the coping capacity is still limited,
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
49
this was largely attributed to the lack of coordination between them and the local
relevant institutions A situation that have reflected negatively on the generation,
communication , and utility, of early warning information to targeted stakeholders.
Forecast and early warning systems in Sudan still need to be developed effectively.
Moreover, there is need to improve the preparedness and ability to response in a more
timely manner. Many constraints are identified to have contributed to this, among
which is the lack of coordination among national institutions, lack of awareness
particularly among policy makers as to the importance of early warning and
preparedness to the sustainability of people's livelihoods including disaster prevention
and food security as well as to the national development planning process.
The food distribution and post-disaster provision of humanitarian assistance was the
conventional approaches that have been adopted by relief and humanitarian
organizations to curb the negative impacts of climate –related disasters. This approach
has been criticized by many as being a short term unsustainable, undermining the
traditional coping capacity and contributed to the creation of relief –dependent
community. Many appeals have now been made regarding the need for these
organizations (UN, WFP etc.) for changing this approach and adopt a more
development focused approach for tackling recurrent food emergencies through
linking relief resources with development interventions.
Some organizations started to respond to calls for new approaches by developing
assistance plans which shift from a main focus on humanitarian to the incorporation of
rehabilitation and recovery, and restoration of livelihoods. However, the issue of
climate change have rarely been considered in their plans. It is important that they
incorporate climate change concerns in all sectoral interventions aimed at addressing
the root causes of livelihood insecurity and famines.
8) Recommendations
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
50
The presence of many limitations and uncertainties in climate science should not
discourage the policy makers from taking actions to address urgent adaptation needs of
vulnerable communities and sectors identified in Sudan. Donor organizations as well as
national governments must overcome the bureaucratic distinction between adaptation to
current climate variability and future climate change and must support broad-based
resilience building with no-regret interventions, uniting the development and adaptation
communities in the process.
Driven by the need for interventions with a longer-term recovery and development impacts,
development planners need to explore alternatives to food-based programming for
emergency affected populations – a conventional approach practiced by humanitarian
agencies –A new policy is required for disaster mitigation and for tackling recurrent food
emergencies through linking relief resources with development interventions. Reducing
people’s vulnerability to expected climatic hazards and to increase their coping capacity.
Should e considered as one of the main objectives of development planning.
The strong links between conflicts and climatic stresses is well established in many
studies – therefore it is important that strategies aiming at peace building tackle the root
causes rather than addressing the symptoms. One way to achieve a sustained stability
could be through factoring in climate change implications into conflict resolution and
peace processes.
Wider support of policies and programs aiming at achieving international cooperation on
climate change issues should be encouraged through awareness campaigns targeting
policy makers. Efforts should also be made to create an enabling environment for a more
targeted regional and international cooperation in climate-related transboundary issues
e.g. the increasing pressure on water resources calls for the development of international
cooperative mechanisms to manage shared water resources e.g. the Nile Basin
It is important to integrate climate change into multi-donor planning processes such as
UN Workplan / (UN, 2007), and partners in Sudan MDTF WFP, taking into
consideration that climate change could affect the number and distribution of refugees
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
51
and IDPs, and the delivery of humanitarian assistance as well as any proposed new
recovery and development programmes
An information dissemination plan needs to be developed to ensure that use is made of
the available information on potential adaptation options that have been identified under
the climate change project & related initiatives (AIACC-AF14 and NAPA). This
information should be used to inform policy and decision makers, as well as for
replication/ up-scaling of successful experiences to other regions of the country. Public
awareness campaigns focusing on current and potential impacts of climate change as well
as possible adaptation responses should be programmed to cover the whole country,
particularly vulnerable communities at the local levels.
More coordination is needed between national and regional organizations in relation to
early warning and disaster risk assessment for effective development and dissemination
of forecast and early warning to improve the preparedness and ability to response in a
timelier manner. There is also a need for undertaking longer term risk assessment to
assist the incorporation of disaster prevention and management in the development plans
rather than simply reacting to offset negative impacts after they occur. It is equally
important to improve the technical capacity of national institutions -producers and users-
of climatic forecasts and early warning information, in order to enhance the output,
uptake, and use of climate forecasting products and developing an improved system of
information and product dissemination and feedback between the national, sub-regional
and regional partners to facilitate informed decision making, through a clearer
understanding of climatic and climate-related processes.
The limited consensus and uncertainty surrounding the potential impacts of climate
change on the Nile Basin underscores the need for undertaking more basin-level research
studies to address the knowledge gap in a coordinated approach among the regional
partners. Moreover, and due to the sensitivity of the shared water issues among the
countries of the basin, it is important to develop an integrated regional management plan
and ensure a high level of awareness to future regional disputes over the resources. .
There is a need for better understanding of potential climate change impacts on water
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
52
resources before the development of large-scale projects which require large capital
investment, as more and more evidences are accumulating on the potential impact of
climate change on the performance of the existing and planned water/hydro facilities. To
ensure the sustainability of major projects such as new dams or canals it is important to
take into consideration the expected impacts of climate variability and change and
provide for early warning, prediction and mitigation measures. It is also important to
examine the potential change in Nile water flow and its impact on irrigated agricultural
projects in Sudan.
One way to address climate change concerns is to mainstream adaptation into the
development planning, and consider it during the formulation of economic and sectoral
policies and strategies of related institutions - Use could be made of the
recommendations by previous studies such as AIACC-AF14 which have underscored the
role of sustainable management of natural resources in supporting the broad
improvements in livelihood security and household and community capacity to cope with
climate impacts.
Due consideration should be given to addressing the methodology and data gaps
identified by previous assessments and studies, and to develop a plan for undertaking a
capacity building program that can best serve to equip Sudan with required skills to
undertake vulnerability and adaptation assessment using sophisticated modeling and
remote sensing techniques. Special emphasis should be given to these important research
areas on economic implications of climatic impacts as well as and evaluation of
adaptation options in terms of e.g. Cost-effectiveness, applicability and accessibility.
Financial and technical support is needed for human as well as institutional capacity
building. Skills and capacities are also needed to develop fundable proposal that could
attract investments in climate change projects.
It is also important to involve different stakeholders in all efforts and programs aiming at
addressing climate change impacts and adaptation at the different levels. Of particular
importance is the facilitation of NGO participation in national and international climate
change activities, policy forums, education and training, and dissemination of public
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
53
information. Therefore, to ensure the taking up of practical actions for addressing climate
change related issues, it is important to develop a climate change implementation
strategy, keeping the following issues in mind: Who are the target stakeholders, what are
the best means for approaching them, what measures need to be put in place to ensure
their involvement and adoption? Etc.
There an urgent need to strengthen national consensus for climate change actions through
outreach and institutional building. Effective use should be of the findings of V& A
assessment in placing climate change in the proper context of all these other long and
short term changes, creating greater awareness among different stakeholders and further
expand the capability for quantitative analysis in support of far-reaching national
decision-making issues. Outreach activities should be planned in order to provide for:
access to national and international climate change information, open dialogues and
meetings to help foster a better understanding of climate change; stimulate public
discussion on key issues; and catalyze project development efforts in Sudan. Information
dissemination on national policies, strategies and international cooperation should also be
supported through the maintenance of an internet web site as well as through traditional
channels such as journals, press and other media. The outreach approach should
emphasize the extensive use of information exchanges as an expert tool i.e., internet,
electronic newsletters, expert networks, training courses, roundtables, workshops and
seminars to build technical capacity and public support for the Sudan’s Climate Change
program.
A need for more harmonization of the various existing initiatives and the improvement of the
coordination and linkages with other conventions (Biodiversity & desertification for adequate
integration of climate change issues into national development strategies and plans.
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54
9. Annexes Annex (1) Institutions involved in CC Activities:
A number of institutions have actively contributed to the climate change project in Sudan; their
involvement has been through the participation in the National Technical Committee or in the
assessment studies as members of the working groups/study teams. The list of institutions
includes:
Department of Planning & Agriculture Economics (DPAE)
Engineering society (ES)
National Electricity Corporation (NEC)
Institute for Technological Research (ITR)
Forests National Corporation (FNC)
Environment and Natural Resources Research Institute (ENRI)
Institute of Environmental Studies (IES)
Federal Ministry of Industry (FMI)
Department of Range and Pasture (DRP)
Energy Research Institute (ERI)
Ministry of Energy & Mining (MEM)
National Draught & Desertification Unit (NDDU)
NGOs & Private Sector
National State Ministry of Industry
Meteorological Authority (MA)
Department of Statistics & Information (DSI)
Ministry of Investment and International Cooperation (MIIC)
Forestry Research Institute (FRI)
Ministry of Transport (MoT)
Ministry of Communication (MoC)
Petrol & Transport Administration (Khartoum State)
Climate Change Project National Technical Committee (NTC) Members
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55
Relevant National experts
Annex (2) Rainfall Sensitivity to Climate Change
Sensitivity of Sudan rainfall to global warming is not yet known since the regional detail of
precipitation changes resulting from the temperature increase are sill poorly modelled by GCMs .
The table below shows the range of scenarios for future rainfall change in Sudan over the next 40
years. Scenarios depend on the cause of recent droughts and the sensitivity of rainfall to global
warming.
Cause of recent rainfall
depletion
Drier Sahel Rainfall change by 2030 AD
due to GHG effect – no
change Sahel
Wetter
Sahel
Natural cycles Stronger+ - +- Weaker +-
Natural climatic
change
- 0 +
Regional
anthropogenic climatic
change *
- - - 0
Global anthropogenic
climatic change
- N/a N/a
Notes:
Much drier - - Drier - No change 0 Wetter + Alternative wet/dry phases +
-
Assumes no reversal of land degradation
(1980s taken as base rainfall level)
In this table four main causes of the recent rainfall depletion are suggested:
an irregular cyclical pattern which would naturally see a return to wetter conditions
a climatic discontinuity due to some (unknown) natural cause, in which a new stable drier
regime is now the norm
a climatic change resulting from regional changes in land surface characteristics, namely land
degradation and deforestation
a climatic change which has been induced by global scale modification of atmospheric
composition through the emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHG.
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
56
The net outcome from the table is a range of scenarios heavily weighted towards either maintenance
of the reduced rainfall yields of recent decades or else a further decline. Only one of the ten
scenarios leads to regenerated rainfall.
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
57
Annex (3) Methodology for developing scenarios:
The climate scenarios chosen were commonly applied to models of ecosystems, and to a
variety of sectoral impact models designed to quantify the magnitude of the physical
impacts on vulnerable sectors. Possible options to adapt to those future impacts were
identified at the last stage of the assessment. Their use in modeling (see the diagram
below), is an effective tool for the analysis of historical data series that provide valuable
information in validating and verifying the output of (GCM). FCCC/SBI/2000/INF.9).
Top-down and bottom-up approaches to assessing vulnerability and
adaptation. Source: Dessai and Hulme, 2004.
Scenarios can be used for addressing questions regarding the key vulnerabilities and
potential impacts of climate change, with more focus on the magnitude of the impacts of
climate change. However, several constraints have been associated with the use of this
framework including the following weaknesses:
They generate information which has a highly aggregated nature and cannot
reflect local phenomena and trend.
They consider vulnerability as an end-point
They are not well on representing human interactions and local abilities to
adapt.
Show difficulty in comparing indicators and indexes assessing different
temporal and spatial scales if measurement unit are inconsistent.
Mostly limited by the uncertainty inherent in the use of global circulation
models used to drive their scenarios.
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
58
Their use is limited to impact evaluation and not to the evaluation of
adaptation options.
Nevertheless, -as indicated above- use of scenarios has been useful in terms of providing a base
for the long-term adaptation strategies in which the attribution to climate change becomes
important. One of the recommendation made at the (FCCC/SBSTA/2004/INF.13), was that,
bottom-up approaches should be applied in parallel for adaptation assessment, as these are
currently the only reliable mechanism that can guide actions for preemptive/ anticipatory
adaptation as well as for strengthening adaptive capacity.
Annex 4 Uncertainties associated with the preparation of the national communication
1 Uncertainties associated with data
Data – related uncertainties have been widely identified over the different chapters of the
report including inventory, V&A assessment and the mitigation analysis.
Availability/incompleteness has been raised as a major problem e.g. (a). incomplete
historical record of climate, crop productions, disease incidences, etc. (b)agricultural and
water resource data gaps: Gum yield per tree, relations between soil moisture, ground
water recharge and other factors influencing recharge Agricultural and water resource
data gaps: Gum yield per tree, relations between soil moisture, ground water recharge and
other factors influencing recharge.
Data formatting: most of the available data is not tabulated according to the standard
format which makes it difficult to compare or analyze across sectors.
To address these data gaps several measures are being highlighted as important, mainly; the
integration of climate change data needs into the normal reporting systems for relevant
institutions; the creation and maintenance of a well-designed web-based database to facilitate
access to climate change data. In the cases where data could not be made available due to
complete lack of information e.g. Southern Sudan, use was made of the best estimates of
national experts (expert judgement).
2. Uncertainties associated with use of scenarios
2.1 Socio-economic scenarios: It is already known that there is tremendous uncertainty about
future socio-economic conditions. Whether and how much such key variables as
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
59
population, income, technology, income distribution, institutions and the environment will
change can have large uncertainties associated with them. In addition, there can be
surprises, such as the emergence of epidemic outbreak that can substantially affect socio-
economic conditions. The report highlighted some of these factors as potential constraints,
indicating also the fact that scenarios for future socio-economic changes and their effects
on the exposure are not well taken into account due to the lack of relevant expertise and
methodological constraints.
Another gap noted in the report is the lack of baseline socio-economic information mainly
due to inadequate consideration of the socio-economic factors in the different sectors.
Consequently, the socio-economic scenarios developed didn't really present “predictions”
of future socio-economic conditions rather; they represent some attempts to explore how
expected changes in key socio-economic variables can affect vulnerability. In other words,
use was made of socio-economic scenarios simply as a tool to identify what socio-
economic variables that were most likely going to increase or decrease the vulnerability to
climate changes.
2.2 Uncertainties associated with climate scenarios:
For climate change issues, there is much uncertainty implicit in the choice of General
Circulation Models (GCMs) which are mathematical representations of atmosphere, ocean,
ice cap, and land surface processes based on physical laws and empirical relations (UNEP,
1998), and greenhouse gas forcing scenarios; an uncertainty further compounded by the
additional complications introduced by downscaling. According to ( Hewitson, 2003) , this
would exacerbates the uncertainty associated with any derived climate change scenario and
reduces the value of any impact assessment intended for developing policy and adaptation
strategies. In this regard and according to (UNFCCC, 2004)), it was known that some model
simulations of the current and future climates were found to be quite coarse or inappropriate,
and GCM outputs used were unable to translate how global warming will affect changes in
temperature and precipitation at the national and regional level (see Fig (10) Yon uncertainty
explosion, adapted from Roger, 2002).
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60
Figure (10) Uncertainty explosion –(adapted from Roger, 2002).
3
The current WMO normal period is 1961-1990 was used to represent the baseline climate
scenario. This period is thought to best define current climate because of its being recent and of
sufficient length. One problem with the use of the 1961-1990 periods, however, is that the
1980s were, globally, the warmest decade this century (Jones et al., 1994). Therefore, using
1961-1990 as a base period could introduce a warming trend into the baseline, which could bias
the results of some impact assessments. This has also been the observed case in Sudan, where
the 1980s was the period marked by anomalous low rainfall and drought.
3. Uncertainties associated with the use of impact models
There is also a degree of uncertainty associated with climate model products and impact
assessment methods. However, the question how these uncertainties interact in an assessment
model received less attention in the FNC. It is known that an improved understanding of the
"cascade of uncertainties" provides essential feedback to guide the technical evolution of
models and assessment methods associated with climate projections and impact scenarios.
Knowledge of uncertainties is also critical in establishing national and international strategies
for mitigation and adaptation to future climate variability and change
Uncertainty explosion
Global climate
sensitivity
Emission
scenarios
Regional
variability
Biophysical
impacts
Socio-economic
impacts
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61
Annex (5) the status quo of the MEA in the Sudan
Title Status Implementing
Institution
1.
London
Convention 1933
Ratified in
1935
Ministry of
Interior
2. Rome Convention
on the Protection
of Plants
Ratified in
1971
Min. of Agric. &
Forests
3. African Conv. On
the Cons. Of
Nature & Nat.
Resources
Ratified in
1973
Min. of Agric. &
Forests
4. CITES 1973 Ratified in
1982
Min. of Interior
5. Regional Conv.
For the Cons. Of
the Red Sea &
Gulf of Eden
Environment
Ratified in
1985
HCENR
6. UNC on the Law
of Seas
Ratified in
1985
HCENR
7. UNFCCC Ratified in
1993
HCENR
8. UNCBD 1992 Ratified in
1995
HCENR
9. UNCDD 1994 Ratified in
1995
Min. of Agric. &
Forests
10. Biosafety
Protocol
Ratified in
1995
HCENR
11. Persistent Organic
Pollutants (POPs)
Ratified HCENR
12. Basel Convention Ratified in
2002
HCENR & Min.
of Agric. &
Forests
13. Ramsar
Convention
Ratified Wildlife
Research and the
HCENR
14. WTO Under
Ratification
15. Biosafety
Protocol
Ratified HCENR
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62
Annex (6) AIACC-AF14 project- Environmental Strategies to Improve community's
Adaptation to Climate variability and change- Lessons for East and North Africa
The AF-14 project was motivated by the observation that certain community-based development
activities serve to build coping and adaptive capacity in the face of climate-related shocks. In
countries like Sudan, where many communities currently lack the capacity to effectively cope
with drought, measures such as these can serve to build coping and adaptive capacity and can
play a role in emerging climate change adaptation strategies. Indeed, such measures are essential
for closing the current deficit in climate coping capacity and providing communities the basis
upon which to adapt to climate change. But if, in its adaptation planning process, a country like
Sudan wished to prioritize adaptation for certain communities highly vulnerable to drought
impacts, it would face the challenge of determining which specific measures to foster. What
works at the community scale, in what settings, under what conditions? The methods designed
and adapted by the AF-14 project aimed to respond to this challenge. The project explored the
hypothesis that a simple set of project impact assessment tools – in this case, structured around
the sustainable livelihoods (SL) framework – can help to fill the practical and conceptual gap
that exists between local vulnerability to climate impacts and national adaptation assessment and
decision-making processes. The project explored this hypothesis by employing the SL
framework to assess the impact of community-based development activities on community
coping capacity. The project developed and adapted existing project impact assessment
methods, and applied these in three communities in which efforts had been undertaken to
increase the capacity of households to cope with drought. In participation with the communities,
indicators of household coping capacity were developed and knowledge elicitation methods were
used to explore the specific nature of this change. The results point to suites of measures that
have clear beneficial impact and can be employed in Sudan for building the capacity to cope with
current climate variability, and by extension, to adapt to climate change. Of equal value and
broader relevance, the success of this community-based assessment process suggests that the
methods used, and others like them, have clear applications within the larger vulnerability and
adaptation assessment process.
The Sudan FNC has outlined key vulnerabilities as well, albeit more in sectoral than human
terms. Certain studies anticipate that climate variability and change will have overwhelming
impacts on agriculture, the predominant livelihood system in the three case studies, and
consequently on food security (Case study reports AF14, 2003). The lack of water, in association
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
63
with high temperatures (up to 45° C at certain periods of the year), is the most limiting factors
for agricultural productivity, according to such studies.
In light of the rich literature and regrettably current experience of Sudan’s vulnerability to
drought, the AF-14 project sought not to explore impacts and vulnerability in any depth, but to
simply recap what is known and to focus instead on exploring drought coping capacity and
resilience, with the aim of identifying practical, effective ways of building both current drought
resilience and future adaptive capacity.
Since the AF-14 project used past and current vulnerability to climate variability as a proxy for
future vulnerability under climate change, historical records and literature survey were conducted
in order to see the impacts and vulnerability in a historic context. Within this framework of
understanding, the project could then use community’s coping and adaptive capacity in the face
of current variability and extremes as a proxy for its level of coping and adaptive capacity under
climate change. A growing number of sources suggest that the degree to which a sector,
community, or system is adapted to today’s climate extremes and variability can serve as an
indicator of how resilient that system is likely to be to future climate change conditions (see e.g.,
Elasha et al 2003). The AF-14 project is based on this approach, and on the premise that
numerous adaptation lessons are to be gleaned from current experience.
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
64
Annex (7), mean annual rainfall, pattern, seasonal variability and trends in 2000
(Source: Metrological Authority)
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65
Annex (8) Sudan Humanitarian activities 2004- Source: UN Department of peace keeping
operation, 2003
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66
Annex (9) detailed map of Sudan - Source: UN Department of peace keeping operation,
2004
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67
Annex (10) Refugees and IDPs in Africa (UNHCR, 2005)
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68
Annex (11) Land cover map of Africa (source: Journal of Biogeography, 2004)
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
69
Annex (12) People contacted
Institute Name Address
World Food Program
(WFP)
1. Mr. Abdallah El Shiekh
2. Mohamed Satti
VAM assistant Program Officer/
Khartoum office
Tel: +249912179897
Program \officer
Monitoring and Evaluation Unit
e-mail [email protected]
United Nations
Development Program
(UNDP)
3. Hanan Abdalla Mutwakil Senior Program Officer
GEF National Coordinator
e-mail [email protected]
Khatoum Office
Institute of
Environmental Studies
Hana Hamadalla Mohamed Senior Researcher – PI research on the
Use of Rainfall Forecast for Improving
the Coping Capacity of Local
Communities in Kordofan State
e-mail [email protected]
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70
Annex (13) Comparative trend analysis of WFP assistance 2005/2006
Source: adapted from WFP, 2006 Sudan Annual Needs Assessment/ Food Security Report
Region 2005 versus 2006 Positive factors Risk factors
Darfur Fluid- partial
improvement
International presence/visibility
Substantial humanitarian
assistance
Better climatic conditions
Relatively better cereal
production
Further escalation in the conflict
Decline in funds for humanitarian
assistance
Risk of cross-boarder conflicts
Lower cereal harvest
Further curtailment of access /mobility
Potential increase in camp based
population
East improving Better agricultural production
Stable livestock prices and
stocks
Increased unskilled labour wage
rates
Chronic food insecurity due to serious
structural failure- Red Sea State
Limited livelihood options for IDPs and
weak service infrastructure
Politically charged and volatile conditions
in Hoomesh Koreib
Potential refugee influx due due to
tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia
Decline in urban labour employment
opportunities due to mechanization-Port
Sudan
- Higher consumer prices due to
inflammatory effect
South improving Signing of CPA and formation
of GoNU and GoSS
Increased economic
opportunities with establishment
of government .institutions
Re-establishment of urban-rural
linkages with the opening of the
former garrison towns
Improved security conditions
Relatively high agric. Production
Newly opened roads – trade
opportunities
Improved access to commodities
and services
Delays in implementation of the peace
agreement –no peace dividend
Returnee influx in the context of the
peace agreement
Lack of infrastructure- particularly
transport
High transaction costs for trade from
surplus to deficit areas
Localized crop failures in Northern Bahr-
el Ghazal and Eastern Equatorial
Potentially increased Lord Resistance
Army (LRA) activities
The three
areas
improving Good agric. Production
Improved security condition
Increased land under cultivation
Newly opened roads – trade
opportunities
Improved access to commodities
and services
Returnee influx in the context of the
peace agreement
Potential conflict associated with
delimitation of boarders and right issues-
nomadic and sedentary population groups
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71
Annex ( 14) UNDP project summary by sector and assistance category for national
program
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
72
Annex 15. Summary of the Sudan’s First National Communications Report
.
1 Background
Recognizing the importance of addressing climate change and the need to integrate its
environmental and development objectives, Sudan signed the Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) in November 1993 and ratified it on March 1994. Pursuant
to Articles 4.1 and 12.1 all Parties, both industrialised and developing, are obliged to
communicate to the Conference of the Parties in the form of national communications,
the following elements of information: an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions by
sources and removals by sinks, a general description of steps taken or envisaged to
implement the UNFCCC, and any other information considered relevant to the
achievement of the objective of the Convention. In 1997, the Climate Change Project
was launched to enable Sudan’s response to the UNFCCC. It was funded by GEF,
executed by the National Execution Management Support Unit (NEXMSU) and
implemented by the Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources (HCENR)
with technical assistance from the Stockholm Environmental Institute-Boston (SEI_B). It
was agreed by all the project partners that climate change is an important global problem
and that Sudan must do its part to address it.
2 Objectives of the Sudan's NC
While the project has a long term objective of fostering human resource development in
order to effectively deal with climate change and address its global and national
consequences and implications., it was also envisioned to address a number of
immediate Objectives including:
Improving Sudanese capacity to comply with the UNFCCC;
Preparing and institutionalizing the national communication reports and; creating
national teams and institutional structures capable of addressing climate change-
related issues.
The strategies for achieving the above -mentioned objectives included inter alia; building
human and institutional capacities within the relevant institutes and giving more emphasis to
issues that are perceived as having environmental importance as well as development
priorities. In addition to that, the project undertook several activities ranging from general
workshops and awareness campaigns to specialized training and studies involving relevant
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
73
stakeholders including policy makers in the government and Non-government organizations
and partner institutions (see annex 1).9
The specialized training covered different areas of climate change related issues such as;
inventory of green houses from different sources and sinks using standard IPCC
methodology; vulnerability & adaptation assessment and mitigation analysis
The Sudan’s 1st. National Communication has been prepared with the aim of building
Sudanese's capacity in order to meet international obligations under the Framework
Convention, and to actively reach out and become a key regional player in efforts for
reducing the impacts of climate change and developing adaptation capacities, as well as
contributing to reduction of GHS emissions through e.g. improvement in sequestering carbon
in sinks. It is also hoped that the report can provide guidance on issues related to gaps and
priorities in climate change research in such a way to attract further support from donors to
Sudan for meeting its environmental goals. The formats of the national communications are
standardized across countries party to the UNFCCC to facilitate synthesis and comparison
between them.
The main ideas realized in the National Implementation Strategy (chapter 5 of the NC),
focused on the need for assisting Sudan in making a real contribution to the efforts by
international communities to addressing the climate change concerns through:
The strengthening of institutions and developing of policies necessary to enable Sudan's
response to international commitments on global climate change, by supporting and
expanding the current administrative structure within the HCENR, establish a networking
mechanisms to coordinate a national climate change program and facilitate the flow of
information between relevant sectors and organizations;
Assess the vulnerability of different sectors to the impacts of climate change, investigate
and assess adaptation capacities and propose actions.
Contribute to international community efforts to reduce GHG emissions by creating
awareness at different levels and encourage investments in and financing for
environmental technologies and mitigation measures, especially in renewable energy,
energy efficiency and forestry management; and
9 A list of institutions is annexed to this report
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
74
Increase the involvement of non-governmental actors (e.g., civil society and private
sector) in the development and implementation of Sudan’s climate change strategies and
plans.
The production of the First National Communication (FNC) marked the completion of
the Climate Change Enabling Project. The report was then presented in a national
workshop aiming at achieving the following objectives:
Reviewing and discussing of the report (Sudan’s First National Communication)
by all relevant national consultants/ experts and other stakeholders.
Providing a platform for exploring and understanding the role of national
communications in the current and future development of the UNFCCC.
Assisting in elaborating essential requirements and institutional framework for
undertaking the activities necessary for preparing future national communication
The workshop concluded that the Sudan’s government should move forward on
the issue of developing a national implementation strategy on climate change,
prioritize the adaptation options for vulnerable sectors and propose actions to
mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and improve & maintain carbon sinks.
To meet these objectives, strategic support is needed that focuses on increasing national
capacity for project development to improve adaptation capacities increase human
resilience to climate change and promoting promising investments in energy efficient
technologies and other measures to reduce GHG emissions.
It is also important that all targeted efforts should build upon existing activities avoiding
duplications and giving more room for identifying opportunities for viable investments in
funding appropriate adaptation options and contribute to sustainable development. Over
time, the intent is for Sudan to identify viable investments in all relevant sectors and
geographic areas
3 Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report
(TAR) defines climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment as the
practice of identifying and evaluating the detrimental and beneficial consequences of
climate change on natural and human systems, and identifying and evaluating options for
adapting to climate change.
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75
In the face of climate change, an assessment of vulnerability and adaptation options is a
critical component of Sudan’s response to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC).The assessment analyzed consequences for Sudan if certain
climate changes occur. It represented the first attempt to find the relation between the
observed impacts on natural and human systems and past and current climate variability,
as well as exploring the potential impacts of future climate change on the different sectors
of the region. (Fig 7) from the IPCC -3rd
.Assessment report- 2001, reflects the lack of
information on vulnerability in Sudan compared to other African countries up to the time
when the first V&A assessment was conducted.
Fig (7) Climate Change vulnerability in Africa (IPCC, 2001)
The purpose of V&A assessment was to illuminate the potential impacts of climate
change on critically important sectors, specifically it aimed at uncovering the types of
challenges that are likely be faced in the not too long future with regard to food security,
water resources and human health. Other longer term objectives included; the
identification of possible adaptive responses for reducing adverse effects, highlight the
linkages between the impacts on different natural resources sectors and other
environmental, socio-economic consequences of climate change.
3.1 Study Area
The assessment focused on Kordofan States as the major region depending mainly on rainfed
agriculture, with the traditional farmers and pastoralists being the most vulnerable and the least
resilient groups to climate-related variability and shocks. The vulnerability of Kordofan to
climate change was illustrated mainly using climate scenario analyses. Two climate change
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
76
projections were considered, one with the expected climate change likely to take place by the
year 2030 and the other which is likely to occur by the year 2060. The results of the climate and
socio-economic scenarios indicated that the Kordofan region’s being part of African Sahelian
region characterized by high aridity is already vulnerable to natural climate variability e.g. erratic
rainfall and frequent dust storms (see Annex 10 - A new land-cover map of Africa for the year
2000)
However, the region vulnerability is expected to get higher due to a high degree of
projected climatic and socio-economic stresses in addition to other multiple factors, such
as poor infrastructure, weak adaptive capacity and the lack of awareness regarding
effective response measures
The vulnerability and adaptation assessment covered the following issues:
1. Development.of climate and socio-economic scenario
2. Using the developed scenarios to assess the V&A of :
agriculture and forestry (sorghum, millet and gum arabic)
Water resources. (soil moisture)
.Human health (malaria)
3.2 Use of Scenarios
A top-down approach known as the “standard approach” is based on climate
scenarios derived from general circulation models (GCMs), as well as on
some consideration of socio-economic scenarios ( see annex 3 on
methodology for developing scenarios).
Projections of rainfall under future climate change conditions also shows sharp
deviations from baseline expectations. Results from some of the models show average
rainfall decreases of about 6 mm/month during the rainy season. This is illustrated in
the two graphs (fig 9 a and b) below for change in rainfall and temperature in 2060
compared to a baseline, and using observations derived from five meteorological
stations.
3.3 V&A Assessment of agricultural and forestry Production
As mentioned earlier the assessment employed conventional and modern assessment
techniques including scenario generation (socio-economic and climate scenarios) and
impacts models. Moreover and whenever is feasible it employed the experts' judgment.
The assessment of agricultural and forestry production (sorghum, millet, and gum arabic
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
77
production), followed the impact framework which focused on assessing long-term risks
from climate change, impacts looking into the future (2030 and 2060, in our case), and
are often driven by scenarios of climate change. Baseline yield scenarios were established
against which predicted crop and gum yield projections were measured, (representing
business as usual i.e. without climatic changes). Then climate change scenarios were
developed to test the sensitivity of Kordofan’s agro climatic zones, and thus crop yield
and gum arabic production, to changes in CO2 levels. This comparison is intended to help
establish the sector’s degree of sensitivity and level of vulnerability. Using FAO Impact
Model, the simulation tested several GCM scenarios. The results revealed that, drought
would become more pronounced with a number of impacts on livelihood systems
projected through this work are strikingly negative, suggesting a significant decrease in
Kordofan’s agricultural productivity and a reduction in its primary cash crop (sorghum
and millet, yields from baseline (1980) levels in all seasons and areas, with sorghum, as
the most vulnerable crop under a changed climate. It was also noted that, a rise in
temperature associated with increased water stress would lower gum Arabic production
significantly. The following specific impacts are recorded:
A southward shift in moist agro climatic zones is seen, indicating a shrinking area of
crop production.
Food crop yield for the selected stations showed a decline from baseline yield of
between 13% and 82% for sorghum and between 20% and 76% for millet. The
exception was Rashad station, where predicted crop yields were roughly equivalent to
baseline. Crop yield in the southern part of the region (Kadugli) remained close to
historic levels.
Of the three exposure units, sorghum is most
heavily affected.
A shift of the Gum Arabic belt (Acacia Senegal)
southward is already been detected and is
projected to increase with declining rainfall. This
will be accompanied by a reduction in Gum arabic
yield, region-wide, between 25% and 30%. (see
fig 8) Shifting of Gum Arabic belt
Fig (7) southward shifting of the Gum
Arabic belt (Source: 1st.National
communication, 2003)
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
78
The most heavily impacted areas for both crops are the northern (El Obeid station),
western (En Nahud) and Southwestern (Babanusa) parts of the region. Figure (9a&
b) shows the crop yield of sorghum in El Obeid and En Nahud stations, indicating a
clear decline of sorghum yield in the milestone years.
Figure (9a& b) the crop yield of sorghum in El Obeid and EnNahud
(Source: 1st.National communication, 2003)
3.4 Water resources:
Water resources in Kordofan State are highly sensitive to climate variation and
fluctuating rainfall. To a large extent, the population of Kordofan is dependent on rainfall
to provide water for crops, livestock, and household use. Surface water is a necessary
supplement to groundwater use in the region. Since Kordofan does not have permanent
stream flow, surface water availability is entirely dependent on rainfall, which is sharply
constrained by the duration and variability of the rainy season (generally May through
October). During the last two decades, Western Sudan (Kordofan and Darfur States) has
witnessed severe drought that has caused loss of human life, crop failure, and
considerable loss of livestock. The meteorological data had clearly indicated that recent
drought cycles are drier, last longer, cover larger areas, and have shorter non-drought
intervals (Sudan Meteorological Authority). For these reasons, water resources in
Kordofan are considered a priority, and an essential component of the vulnerability and
adaptation assessment.
The water assessment indicated that:
En Nahud
0
200
400
600
1988 2030 2060
Sorgu
m Yie
ld(Kg
/ha)
HADCM2
BMRC
GFDL
El Obeid
1988 2030 2060
Sorgu
m Yie
ld(kg
/ha)
HADCM2
BMRC
GFDL
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
79
Soil moisture declines under future climate change conditions.
The water deficit in Kordofan is predicted to worsen as a result of climate change in
milestone years 2030 and 2060, as compared to the historical baseline (1961-1990).
Interestingly, the decline in rainfall is only part of the story; the effect of rising
temperatures and increased Potential EvapoTranspiration (PET) may have the most
significant impact.
Acute water stress could be experienced in the year 2060. . Of particular note, the results
suggest that in the northern parts of the region the soil moisture deficit could be
equivalent to the water holding capacity of the soil in 2060 - a situation of extreme water
stress.
The study also concluded that in order to maintain the same water consumption ratio in
2060 as today, 1.9 additional bcm per year will need to be harvested from rainfall or
seasonal stream-flow in 2060, for an annual total of 3.7 bcm.
3.5 Human health
As the most significant public health concern in Sudan, Malaria was selected as the
exposure unit for V&A Assessment. However, the assessment of malaria incidence is
constrained by a lack of reliable epidemiological data. Historic records of disease
incidence are incomplete, making it impossible to create a reliable picture of baseline
(non-climate change) prevalence of malaria. Thus, it is not possible to compare baseline
disease incidence against disease incidence projected in a climate change scenario.
To overcome data limitations and facilitate an impact assessment, transmission potential
(TP) - as opposed to actual numbers of cases of malaria – was taken as the focus of the
analysis. Higher TP in a given area indicates a higher potential for malaria outbreak.
These results, generated by the different models, show that TP in 2060 is more than
double the baseline TP, suggesting a doubling of the potential for malaria outbreak during
the months of December and January. The risk in 2030 is only slightly less.
The assessment concluded that the projected increase in transmission potential, suggests
that the changes in temperature and precipitation anticipated under climate change could
adversely alter the current distribution and intensity of malaria incidence in Sudan.
Based on such potential impacts, the question of climate change impact on malaria - and
the most suitable adaptation options - warrants far greater investigation. Important areas
for subsequent research will be the adverse economic impacts of malaria in Sudan (under
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
80
both baseline and climate change scenarios), as well as the combined effects of climate
and socioeconomic factors on malaria incidence.
4. Future perspectives/ what is needed to improve the utility of FNC?
According to a report by the United Nations Frame Work Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC, 2000) The guidelines for the preparation of initial national communications
by Parties not included in Annex I to the UNFCCC, contained in the annex to decision
10/CP.2, do not provide an adequate framework for the assessment of climate change
impacts and identification of adaptation options and strategies. Moreover, they don't
provide sufficient information on implementing adaptation measures and/or response
strategies and on how these measures and/or strategies should be integrated into the
national planning process. These gaps need to be considered in any future climate change
impacts assessments.
The UNFCCC report also highlighted the fact that; most vulnerability and adaptation
assessments and studies in Africa including Sudan of course were centred on a single
sector, such as agriculture, health and/or water resources. Meanwhile, the UNFCCC
report emphasized the need to pursue a cross-sectoral and multi-sectoral approach to
impact assessments in subsequent vulnerability and adaptation studies. This should also
be considered in future assessments.
The NC should provide a clear response strategy to all climate change related concerns.
To provide for this, it should contain some key elements – which currently are not well
covered, including the information on:
Development priorities in Sudan,: this will enable climate change experts identify
where to focus their efforts that aim at strengthening the linkages between climate
change issues and other development plans and hence put climate change among
the priority areas:
Imitational arrangements: A clear plan on the organizational setup as well as the
legal instruments (regulation, laws) required to carry out climate change related
activities. This will ensure a real commitment and clear institutional
responsibilities by different actors involved.
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81
Annex (16) Overview of climate-related initiatives (See table 4 for a complete list of related
initiatives)
A number of projects that either focus mainly on climate change or involving climate related
activities are implemented in Sudan. The most important in terms of having direct links with the
NC are:
1 AIACC-AF14
The V&A assessment conducted as part of the FNC didn’t include the potential adaptation
measures that can potentially reduce the impacts to current and future changes. This
information is essential for effective communication of actions necessary to reduce potential
impacts, to the public and decision-makers in order to enable the integration of adaptation
aspects in the planning process. Hence to fill the gaps and shortcomings of the vulnerability
and adaptation assessment conducted in the above enabling activities, a four-year project has
been conducted as part of the "Global Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate
Change (AIACC)" through GEF/UNEP. This project aims at enhancing the scientific and
technical information; assessing the impact of climate change and designing cost-effective
response measures which are needed to formulate national policy options. The results
generated by AIACC-AF14 project is expected to contribute to the national implementation
strategy of the Sudan’s 1st National Communication to the UNFCCC, as well as the
provision of practical lessons for adaptation that can contribute to the Sudan’s National
Adaptation Action plan (NAPA).
.2 Sudan National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA)
A UNDP/GEF Project, entitled National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA),
established by the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) to assist the least developed countries (LDCs) in assessing
and communicating their most urgent adaptation needs.
Sudan is going to use the NAPA process to produce a set of adaptation projects that
address its highest priorities and to propose for international support in the face of climate
change, and the urgent need for adaptation. The NAPA activities included the examining
of existing practices of communities to find and document proven measures that are
yielding benefits today and could act as viable adaptation options under future climate
change. It employed a consultative process to develop criteria and evaluation tools to
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82
identify adaptations that respond to urgent national needs and to prioritize adaptations.
Moreover, policies and institutional processes have been identified and analyzed to allow
for the identification of barriers and opportunities to sustainable livelihood. These and
other related findings can be taken into consideration when conducting the other NC
activities and will assist in the Integration of climate change concerns into national
development plans.(HCENR, 2007)
3. Regional Initiatives
A number of regional initiatives have been initiated to address climate-change related
concerns of Africa example:
Climate for Development in Africa, (ClimDev Africa): A new programme, represents
an important new initiative that has now been endorsed by the Joint Secretariat that
represents a common platform for three continental institutions: the African Union
Commission, the African Development Bank, and ECA. Additional partners include
GCOS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the United Kingdom’s Department
for International Development. The ClimDev Africa covers a broad spectrum of climate-
related needs representing an end-to-end programme that will address not only climate
observing needs but also development of improved climate services, climate risk
management, and policy needs, all with a view to mainstreaming climate considerations
into development.
Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET): USAID supports activities to
help developing countries lessen their vulnerability and adapt to climate variability and
change. These activities are intended to build more resilience into economic sectors that
may be affected by climatic stresses, including agriculture, water, and key livelihood
sectors in coastal areas. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)
operates in numerous countries in Africa. The program provides decision-makers with
information to respond effectively to drought and famine threats by analyzing remote-
sensing data and ground-based meteorological, crop and rangeland observations to
identify early indications of potential famine.
Linking Climate Adaptation network (LCA) is an effort to help communities,
policymakers, practitioners and academicians share knowledge on climate change
adaptation and is funded by DFID. The first phase of the project (May 2004 – June 2005)
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
83
identified the role of funding and policy mechanisms in supporting successful
community-led adaptation. It also identified longer-term research priorities needed to
support community led adaptation in the future.
Climate Change Adaptation Support Programme for Action-Research and
Capacity Development in Africa (CCAA) programme: Currently, the International
Development Research Council (IDRC), Canada, is partnering with the Department for
International Development (DFID) in the UK to fund a five-year, $65 million CAD
Climate Change Adaptation Support Programme for Action-Research and Capacity
Development in Africa (CCAA). Its aim is to support African countries in their efforts to
address vulnerability, particularly of the poor, to climate change. Building on current
activities and experience, the CCAA programme will strengthen efforts to establish and
maintain a skilled body of expertise in Africa to support efforts to cope with climate
variability and change with a focus on the poor.
Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC): AIACC was
developed in collaboration with the UNEP/WMO and IPCC and funded by the GEF to
advance scientific understanding of climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options
in developing countries. By funding collaborative research, training and technical
support, AIACC aimed to enhance the scientific capacity of developing countries to
assess climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations, and generate and communicate
information useful for adaptation planning and actions (AIACC-AF14 Sudan project).
NAPA Comparative study: This study documents lessons learned by the NAPA teams
in Eastern and Southern Africa.. It is a contribution to several efforts on reviewing
experience in climate adaptation, commissioned specifically by the European Capacity
Building Initiative with funding from GTZ and other donors. The aim of the study and of
the ECBI Policy Analysis Programme, is to build analytic capacity through collaboration
with between developing country professionals and European experts. The purpose of
this NAPA review/comparison is to initiate a learning process and extract lessons from
the NAPAs, through interactive mechanisms of discussions and open dialogues with
African NAPA teams and stakeholders. ( for information see)10
10 Elasha, Balgis Osman and Downing, T.E. 2007. Lessons Learned in Preparing National Adaptation
Programmes of Action in Eastern and Southern Africa. SEI Oxford working paper. Oxford
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84
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Annex (18) Table (3) technical gaps in the First National Communication Mitigation analysis GHG inventory Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessment
Technical
gaps Data availability, reliability and computability
Incomplete
Not in the detailed format required by the
climate studies
Not considered across sectors
Problem of accessibility and data
exchange
Lack of adequate capacity to process and
manage data
Question of reliability
Data availability, reliability
and computability
Emission factors & other
default values used in GHG
inventory Incomplete
records
Not in the detailed format
required by the climate
studies
Not consistent across sectors
Problem of accessibility and
data exchange
Data availability, reliability and computability
Incomplete
Not in the detailed format required by the climate
studies
Not considered across sectors
Problem of accessibility and data exchange
There is no adequate capacity to process and manage
data
Regional data for comparability is not easily found if
not at all ( e.g. data on socio-economic scenario)
Question of reliability
Data-related
Inadequate knowledge of long-term
projection and scenario development
(business as usual, socioeconomic
scenario elements and driving forces
and Variable considered ).
Calculations and reporting of
uncertainties related to GHG
estimates Default values (
emission factors, activity data)
Uncertainty in emission
estimates (How to manage
and minimize its effect).
Limited knowledge regarding climate scenarios
(selection of GCMs and downscaling of outputs..
etc)
Impact models ( availability and technical know-
how
Inadequate knowledge on different types and
uses of impact models which is essential for
V&A assessment.
Selection and testing of GCMs using
MAGICC/SCGEN.
Downscaling methods for GCMs outputs.
Projection of socio-economic and environment
factors (selection of socio-economic indicators,
modeling tools)
Methodological
Capacities created by the Climate Change
Project within the relevant sectors
considered insufficient in relation to
modeling and use of computer –model (
There is no adequate
capacity to process and
manage data Available
models & software required
Capacities created by the Climate Change Project
within the relevant sectors considered
insufficient in relation to modeling and use of
computer –model ( impact, projection)
Capacity and
skills
Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January
93
impact, projection)
Lack of relevant technical expertise (
projection, impact assessment, modeling)
Inadequate facilities within the relevant
institution.
Sustainability issue, turnover of staff,
limited number of trained personnel from
within the climate related sectors
more training and
understanding
Inadequate facilities within
the relevant institution.
Sustainability issue, turnover
of staff, limited number of
trained personnel from
within the climate related
sectors
Lack of relevant technical expertise ( projection,
impact assessment, modeling)
Inadequate facilities within the relevant
institution.
Sustainability issue, turnover of staff, limited
number of trained personnel from within the
climate related sectors
Sustainability issue, turnover of staff,
limited number of trained personnel from
within the climate related sectors
Sustainability issue, turnover
of staff, limited number of
trained personnel from
within the climate related
sectors
Adaptation assessment:
Selection ( identification and screening)
Assessment (cost effectiveness, applicability)
Resources &time limitations
Sustainability issue, turnover of staff, limited
number of trained personnel from within the
climate related sectors
Others
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94
Annex (19) Table (4) List of climate change-related initiatives in Sudan
Project Focus Objectives Implementing agency Funding
agency
Geographical
coverage
Community Based Rangeland
Rehabilitation for Carbon
Sequestration (1994-2000)
Climate Change/
Mitigation
was to implement a simple model of
community-based natural resource
management to prevent over-
exploitation and degradation, of
marginal lands and rehabilitate
rangelands for the purpose of carbon
sequestration. It also sought to
encourage biodiversity preservation,
reduction of dust storms, and reduction
of the risks of production failure in this
drought-prone area by providing
alternatives for sustainable production
State Ministry of Agriculture
+ committees from Local
communities
UNDP/GEF Gereigikh Rural
Council -Bara
province/ North
Kordofan State of
Western Sudan
Climate Change Enabling Project
(Capacity Building to Enable the
Sudan’s Response and
Communication to the UNFCCC)
1998-2002
Climate Change/
Capacity
development
Fostering human resource development
in order to effectively deal with climate
change and address its global and
national consequences and implications.
Climate Change Unit at the
HCENR and SEI-Boston
UNDP/GEF National project-
Sudan
Expedited Financing of Climate
Change Enabling Activities (Phase
II) 2002-2003
Climate Change/
capacity building additional financing for capacity
building in priority areas
Change Unit at the HCENR
and SEI-Boston
UNDP/GEF National- Sudan
AIACC-AF14 (Environmental
Strategies to increase Human
Resilience to Climate Change, lessons
for Eastern and North Africa)- 2002-
2006
Climate change/
adaptation
To demonstrate a method for generating
information on effective resilience-
building activities, and raise the profile
of such activities within the climate
adaptation and broader development
communities.
Climate Change Unit at the
HCENR and SEI-Boston
GEF, CIDA,
USEPA-
Executed by
UNEP,
START,
TWAS &
IPCC
Barrier Removal to Secure PV
Market Penetration in Semi-Urban
Sudan 2001-2005
Climate Change/
Mitigation and
adaptation
Promoting the use of alternative
energies mainly solar energy in semi-
urban areas in Sudan
Ministry of Energy and
Mining
UNDP/GEF Gedarif State in
Eastern Sudan and
Kordofan in Western
Sudan
National Adaptation Programme of
Action (NAPA)- 2005-2007
Climate Change/
adaptation
Serve as a simplified and direct channel
of communication for information
Climate Change Unit at the
HCENR and SEI-Boston
UNDP/GEF National- Sudan
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95
related to the urgent and immediate
adaptation needs of the Sudan.
National Capacity Self-Assessment
(NCSA) for Global Environment
Management- 2003-2007
Multi-focal areas/
Climate change,
biodiversity and
desertification
Assess the National Capacity
building needs
to implement the three
environmental conventions
("Climate Change",
"Desertification" &
"Biodiversity".
HCENR UNDP/GEF National-Sudan